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"Decisive battles await Ukraine from the
middle to the end of spring, and this will
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be a turning point in the war. If you apply the
soccer analogy to the 12th month of the war,
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the score is now 1 to 1, and the minute
is 70. This is a subjective vision," the
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head of Ukrainian intelligence told
Budanov in an interview with Forbes.
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Ukrainian forces are holding their
ground, although heavy fighting is
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taking place all along the line. The most
difficult now is to the north of Bakhmut.
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Under Bakhmut, the enemy is throwing more and
more forces, just to achieve at least some result.
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For the most part, they are working in the
form of combined brigades - convicts from
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the Wagner Group, regular
units of the Russian army,
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and there are even already militants from
the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk republics.
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The Russians have a strategic goal of reaching the
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administrative borders of the Donetsk and
Luhansk regions by March 31 at any cost.
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That, the previously announced "big Russian
offensive" has begun and is already underway.
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But it is going on in such a way that
it does not look like a big offensive.
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It's like that bad movie - the trailer was better
than the work itself. Yes, there are difficult
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sections, but otherwise - nothing that Ukrainian
army fighters have not previously encountered.
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Near Bakhmut, the occupants are changing
tactics. Infantry is coming in wave after wave,
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and Russian artillery now supports only rare units
of armored vehicles. Remember we used to talk
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about the enemy's shell hunger? This is it, not
in all directions, but the trend is already clear.
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For two months now Russian troops have been
living in the most ammunition-saving mode.
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They are now being used more or less normally
only in Bakhmut and Limansk direction.
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Russia's artillery stockpile has reached
30 percent, the remnants of missiles are
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almost exhausted, and the entire Russian defense
industry can produce about 40 missiles a month.
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Russia produces far fewer shells than
it uses and it will not be possible
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to deploy more production because
Russia is not even the Soviet Union.
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After victory, Ukraine should create
a "security zone" around its border.
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A demilitarized zone with permanent control.
From 40 to 100 km deep into Russian territory.
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I will also read the fresh statements
of two other intelligence agencies.
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German intelligence believes that the Kremlin
leadership can mobilize up to a million more
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people for the war against Ukraine. The main thing
to understand is that they cannot do it all at
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once, only in 3-4 stages. The usual replacement
of the recycled occupiers, nothing new.
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British Intelligence: "Putin in his
speeches continues to say that the
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war is an existential threat to Russia,
while also claiming that all is well and
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is going according to plan. The
simultaneous use of these theses
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makes both meaningless. You'd think he
was saying something logical before that.
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