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Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and
the commander of occupation troops in Ukraine
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Sergey Surovikin announced yesterday that
the withdrawal of the Russian group of troops
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from the city of Kherson begins. Obviously,
the Russian aggressors have no credibility,
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but I would remind you that it
is not Ukraine that adjusts to
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their statements - it is their statements
that are a reaction to Ukraine's actions.
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And these actions are very simple and
clear. The AFU continues to implement
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its operation to liberate the entire
Kherson region and Kherson in particular.
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This operation is successful, and whatever
intrigues and cunning games the enemy may
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try to play, it is only a matter of
time before the city is liberated.
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Liberating Kherson is very important.
But rightly the questions arise:
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what will this change on the front and
what should Ukrainians be prepared for?
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The first is the release of Russian troops. These
are not just troops, but cadre and professional
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units. I am talking about units of the Marines
and paratroopers. This is about 10,000 soldiers,
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maybe more. Russia will receive not thousands
of inexperienced and unmotivated recruits, but
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thousands of men hardened in months-long battles
in the steppes of Kherson. This force cannot be
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ignored. They will probably be transferred to the
Zaporizhzhya direction and to the eastern front.
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The good news here is that Ukrainian
units are also being released.
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Yes, no doubt some forces will remain in Kherson
and along the river bank. Plus the rear units,
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but the remaining brigades and battalions will
be able to be redeployed to both the eastern and
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northern borders of Ukraine. In addition, no one
has ruled out the threat from the army of Belarus.
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The second is that the occupiers will start
shelling Kherson on a regular basis. The city
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will in fact become a front-line city. The enemy
will be able to hit it not only with artillery,
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but even with mortars. This
is all a great danger to the
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civilian population and constant anxiety
and risks for the Ukrainian defenders.
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Third, the Russian Armed Forces will get
experienced soldiers or future junior
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commanders. It is no secret that the Russians
are as bad as possible with junior commanders:
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they simply do not exist. There is no one who can
train hundreds of thousands of mobilized soldiers,
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and no one who can be put in charge
of squads, platoons, and companies.
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Those cadres of the Russian military who have
been fighting on the Kherson steppes for long
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months have experience and an understanding of how
the AFU fights. They can already be appointed as
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squad leaders or, after an accelerated officer
course, as platoon and company commanders.
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Yes, the quality of such commanders will be
worse than that of Ukrainians who take command
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courses in the West. Nor should we forget
the Russian Armed Forces' lack of motivation
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and flexibility. But all the same, even such a
half-measure can strengthen the occupation forces.
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One way or another, the liberation of Kherson
will be an important event in this war,
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a great victory for the AFU and another
disgrace for the Russian Armed Forces.
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But we should still keep in mind the factors
described above. Informed means armed!
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