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More than a month has passed since the announcement
of mobilization in the Russian Federation,
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and initial conclusions can be made.
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The Kremlin has managed to mobilize several
hundred thousand people during this time,
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according to some estimates up to 500,000.
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And mobilizing does not mean organizing: the
equipment, unit cohesion, structuring and
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other important elements that turn a crowd
into a military unit are in a disgusting state.
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Part of this mass of recruits was thrown immediately
and without training to the southern and eastern
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front in Ukraine, where they immediately began
to die en masse.
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The rest of the mass is at Russian military
bases, but due to the lack of junior commanders,
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there is no information yet on the creation
of new army units or divisions.
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Apparently, they will be used to permanently
saturate the regular and already existing
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units of the Russian Armed Forces.
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There is a complete failure with junior commanders,
there are none.
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If the information about their withdrawal
from the western bank of the Dnieper turns
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out to be true, it is all done largely to
save all these cadre contract servicemen,
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paratroopers and other professional military
from encirclement, defeat and death and to
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use them as junior commanders for the mobilized
masses.
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These units fought grueling and difficult
battles in the Kherson steppes for months
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and gained real combat experience, they now
know what to expect from the AFU, and they
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understand a little bit about tactics.
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If somewhere the Kremlin wants to get thousands
of commanders for its mobilized, it is only
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here.
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I don't see any other possibilities.
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To summarize, we can confidently say that
they have people, but the structure, motivation,
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understanding and skills are absent in principle.
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The main problem of the RF Armed Forces remains
in armaments, communication issues, and disgusting
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logistics.
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The situation is not getting any better, but
only getting worse with each week of intense
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fighting and constant Ukrainian onslaught.
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They can’t mobilize planes and precision
shells.
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They do not grow on trees, and Iran and North
Korea do not have them.
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The Ukrainian army today is one of the best
equipped and armed armies not only in Europe
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but also in the world, according to a number
of indicators.
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It is important for the Ukrainian General
Staff as oxygen to preserve as many live forces
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as possible, not afraid to resort to the strategy
"two steps back, one step forward" and squeeze
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the maximum out of the long-range systems,
grind the military infrastructure and live
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forces of the Russian Armed Forces on the
captured territories and not allow them to
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restore control and combat readiness of the
units.
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