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These are the user uploaded subtitles that are being translated: 1 00:00:03,709 --> 00:00:05,931 [buzzing] 2 00:00:06,619 --> 00:00:11,619 Subtitles by explosiveskull 3 00:00:20,107 --> 00:00:22,834 Even if we can change human beings, 4 00:00:22,836 --> 00:00:24,925 in what direction do we change them? 5 00:00:24,927 --> 00:00:28,013 Do we want to change them this way or that way? 6 00:00:28,015 --> 00:00:31,652 This is an example of the way in which 7 00:00:31,654 --> 00:00:36,782 technological advance impinges on sociological necessity. 8 00:00:37,415 --> 00:00:46,975 [music] 9 00:00:56,775 --> 00:00:58,402 What we need to ask ourselves is, 10 00:00:58,404 --> 00:01:02,573 "Where does my individual ability to control my life 11 00:01:02,575 --> 00:01:05,246 or to influence the political process 12 00:01:05,248 --> 00:01:09,071 lie in relation to these new forms of technology?" 13 00:01:09,287 --> 00:01:11,558 [music] 14 00:01:11,560 --> 00:01:12,754 Government and politicians 15 00:01:12,756 --> 00:01:14,173 don't understand what's happening. 16 00:01:14,175 --> 00:01:17,610 See, they don't even realized this change is happening. 17 00:01:18,295 --> 00:01:21,277 It is very difficult, not impossible, 18 00:01:21,279 --> 00:01:24,925 to predict what the precise effects will be, 19 00:01:24,927 --> 00:01:29,709 and in many cases, like with other technologies, 20 00:01:29,711 --> 00:01:31,868 we have to socket and see. 21 00:01:32,074 --> 00:01:34,293 Who would have predicted the internet? 22 00:01:34,295 --> 00:01:37,058 And I talk about this matter as humanity 2.0 23 00:01:37,060 --> 00:01:38,863 'cause in a sense, this is where we're heading, 24 00:01:38,865 --> 00:01:41,354 to some kind of new normal, as it were, 25 00:01:41,356 --> 00:01:43,587 of what it is to be a human being. 26 00:01:43,670 --> 00:01:45,813 It's not a problem 27 00:01:45,815 --> 00:01:47,893 that we should dismiss or underestimate. 28 00:01:47,895 --> 00:01:50,154 It's staggering in its proportions. 29 00:01:50,156 --> 00:01:52,805 Ignorance and disbelief at the same time. 30 00:01:52,818 --> 00:01:57,263 People don't believe that change is happening this fast. 31 00:01:57,265 --> 00:01:58,845 That's the problem. 32 00:01:59,615 --> 00:02:03,769 [music] 33 00:02:03,771 --> 00:02:06,214 This is a stone 34 00:02:06,216 --> 00:02:08,133 formed naturally in the Earth's crust 35 00:02:08,135 --> 00:02:11,455 over millions of years through pressure and heat. 36 00:02:11,545 --> 00:02:15,733 It was discovered in the Olduvai Gorge in Tanzania. 37 00:02:15,735 --> 00:02:18,933 Dated around 2.5 million years BC, 38 00:02:18,935 --> 00:02:23,015 it is arguably one of the first examples of technology. 39 00:02:23,107 --> 00:02:25,941 Stone tools were first adapted for the use of cutting, 40 00:02:25,943 --> 00:02:30,436 scraping, or pounding materials by Homo habilis, 41 00:02:30,438 --> 00:02:33,446 one of our earliest ancestors. 42 00:02:33,920 --> 00:02:35,941 Over one million years later, 43 00:02:35,943 --> 00:02:37,952 mankind made one of the most significant 44 00:02:37,954 --> 00:02:40,876 of all technological discoveries... 45 00:02:41,170 --> 00:02:42,457 Fire. 46 00:02:42,459 --> 00:02:44,194 The ability to control fire 47 00:02:44,196 --> 00:02:46,777 was a turning point for human evolution. 48 00:02:46,779 --> 00:02:49,881 It kept us warm, allowed us to see in the dark, 49 00:02:49,883 --> 00:02:51,582 and allowed us to cook food, 50 00:02:51,584 --> 00:02:54,944 which many scientists believe was a huge contributor 51 00:02:54,946 --> 00:02:57,266 to the ascent of mind. 52 00:02:58,215 --> 00:03:02,191 Each age, each empire, has brought with it 53 00:03:02,193 --> 00:03:05,923 the discovery and invention of numerous technologies 54 00:03:06,177 --> 00:03:10,532 each in their own way redesigning human life... 55 00:03:12,267 --> 00:03:14,305 ...leading us to now... 56 00:03:14,715 --> 00:03:17,275 ...modern-day society. 57 00:03:18,209 --> 00:03:21,573 We're now more advanced, connected, knowledgeable, 58 00:03:21,575 --> 00:03:25,305 and resistant to disease than ever before, 59 00:03:25,401 --> 00:03:27,082 and it is all due to our ability 60 00:03:27,084 --> 00:03:30,858 to apply scientific knowledge for practical purposes 61 00:03:30,860 --> 00:03:33,649 in a bid to maximize efficiency. 62 00:03:33,943 --> 00:03:37,756 Just as the stone set us on a path of transformation, 63 00:03:37,758 --> 00:03:39,853 the technologies of the future 64 00:03:39,855 --> 00:03:42,655 may bring with them a paradigm shift, 65 00:03:42,763 --> 00:03:47,173 changing two major features of the human experience. 66 00:03:47,295 --> 00:03:49,569 Two things that have defined our lives 67 00:03:49,571 --> 00:03:51,673 for as long as we can remember. 68 00:03:51,810 --> 00:03:56,579 Two things that have always been involuntary constants: 69 00:03:56,806 --> 00:03:59,733 trading our time for sustenance 70 00:03:59,735 --> 00:04:02,673 and losing that time through senescence. 71 00:04:03,335 --> 00:04:07,165 [music] 72 00:04:11,467 --> 00:04:15,245 [music] 73 00:04:15,247 --> 00:04:18,247 [indistinct chattering] 74 00:04:18,350 --> 00:04:20,969 [music] 75 00:04:20,971 --> 00:04:22,870 [telephone ringing] 76 00:04:22,872 --> 00:04:27,235 [music] 77 00:04:27,315 --> 00:04:29,833 [zapping] 78 00:04:29,835 --> 00:04:37,473 [music] 79 00:04:37,475 --> 00:04:39,993 [laughing] 80 00:04:39,995 --> 00:04:45,985 [music] 81 00:04:46,995 --> 00:04:50,175 The Industrial Revolution effectively freed man 82 00:04:50,177 --> 00:04:51,793 from being a beast of burden. 83 00:04:51,795 --> 00:04:53,925 The computer revolution will similarly free him 84 00:04:53,927 --> 00:04:55,955 from dull, repetitive routine. 85 00:04:56,177 --> 00:04:57,839 The computer revolution is, however, 86 00:04:57,841 --> 00:04:59,988 perhaps better compared with the Copernican 87 00:04:59,990 --> 00:05:01,993 or the Darwinian Revolution, 88 00:05:01,995 --> 00:05:05,264 both of which greatly changed man's idea of himself 89 00:05:05,266 --> 00:05:07,089 and the world in which he lives. 90 00:05:07,235 --> 00:05:10,722 In the space of 60 years, we have landed on the moon, 91 00:05:10,724 --> 00:05:13,389 seen the rise of computing power, 92 00:05:13,391 --> 00:05:14,816 mobile phones, 93 00:05:14,818 --> 00:05:16,738 the explosion of the internet, 94 00:05:16,740 --> 00:05:20,095 and we have sequenced the human genome. 95 00:05:20,341 --> 00:05:22,473 We took man to the moon and back 96 00:05:22,475 --> 00:05:24,980 with four kilobytes of memory. 97 00:05:24,982 --> 00:05:29,506 The phone in your pocket is at least 250,000 times 98 00:05:29,508 --> 00:05:31,670 more powerful than that. 99 00:05:31,763 --> 00:05:34,930 We are ever-increasingly doing more with less. 100 00:05:35,084 --> 00:05:36,722 One of the things that has been born 101 00:05:36,724 --> 00:05:39,363 out of this technological revolution 102 00:05:39,365 --> 00:05:42,175 is the ability to replace human workers 103 00:05:42,177 --> 00:05:44,954 with more efficient machines. 104 00:05:45,117 --> 00:05:46,881 This is largely due to the speed 105 00:05:46,883 --> 00:05:50,410 at which we are advancing our technological capabilities. 106 00:05:50,412 --> 00:05:52,144 [applause] 107 00:05:52,146 --> 00:05:56,384 Information technology grows in an exponential manner. 108 00:05:56,388 --> 00:05:58,113 It's not linear. 109 00:05:58,115 --> 00:06:00,246 And our intuition is linear. 110 00:06:00,248 --> 00:06:01,506 When we walked through the savanna 111 00:06:01,508 --> 00:06:03,554 a thousand years ago, we made linear predictions 112 00:06:03,556 --> 00:06:05,467 where that animal would be and that worked fine. 113 00:06:05,469 --> 00:06:07,488 It's hardwired in our brains, 114 00:06:07,490 --> 00:06:09,973 but the pace of exponential growth 115 00:06:09,975 --> 00:06:13,545 is really what describes information technologies, 116 00:06:13,547 --> 00:06:15,470 and it's not just computation. 117 00:06:15,490 --> 00:06:17,069 There's a big difference between linear 118 00:06:17,071 --> 00:06:18,256 and exponential growth. 119 00:06:18,258 --> 00:06:20,327 If I take 30 steps linearly, 120 00:06:20,329 --> 00:06:23,416 one, two, three, four, five, I get to 30. 121 00:06:23,418 --> 00:06:25,453 If I take 30 steps exponentially, 122 00:06:25,455 --> 00:06:28,639 two, four, eight, sixteen, I get to a billion. 123 00:06:28,641 --> 00:06:30,453 It makes a huge difference. 124 00:06:30,455 --> 00:06:32,913 And that really describes information technology. 125 00:06:32,915 --> 00:06:34,832 When I was a student at MIT, 126 00:06:34,834 --> 00:06:37,173 we all shared one computer, it took up a whole building. 127 00:06:37,175 --> 00:06:38,493 The computer in your cell phone today 128 00:06:38,495 --> 00:06:41,499 is a million times cheaper, a million times smaller, 129 00:06:41,501 --> 00:06:43,668 a thousand times more powerful. 130 00:06:43,670 --> 00:06:46,420 That's a billionfold increase in capability per dollar 131 00:06:46,422 --> 00:06:47,858 that we've actually experienced 132 00:06:47,860 --> 00:06:49,373 since I was a student, 133 00:06:49,375 --> 00:06:52,188 and we're gonna do it again in the next 25 years. 134 00:06:52,638 --> 00:06:55,485 Currently, on an almost daily basis, 135 00:06:55,501 --> 00:06:58,163 new algorithms, programs, 136 00:06:58,165 --> 00:07:00,644 and feats in mechanical engineering 137 00:07:00,646 --> 00:07:03,853 are getting closer and closer to being a reliable 138 00:07:03,855 --> 00:07:08,227 and more cost-effective alternative to a human worker. 139 00:07:08,820 --> 00:07:11,907 This process is known as automation. 140 00:07:12,528 --> 00:07:14,848 This is not just about, 141 00:07:15,259 --> 00:07:17,202 you know, automation where we expect it, 142 00:07:17,204 --> 00:07:18,405 which is in factories 143 00:07:18,407 --> 00:07:20,530 and among blue-collar workers and so forth. 144 00:07:20,532 --> 00:07:23,043 It is coming quite aggressively 145 00:07:23,045 --> 00:07:24,866 for people at much higher skill levels, 146 00:07:24,868 --> 00:07:26,718 and that will only grow in the future 147 00:07:26,720 --> 00:07:29,266 as we continue on this exponential arc. 148 00:07:29,357 --> 00:07:32,114 This business that, you know, not having to work very hard 149 00:07:32,116 --> 00:07:34,466 because machines are taking care of things for you, 150 00:07:34,468 --> 00:07:36,374 I mean, you see this also in the 19th century 151 00:07:36,376 --> 00:07:37,879 with the Industrial Revolution. 152 00:07:37,881 --> 00:07:40,631 And, in fact, I think one of the problems 153 00:07:40,633 --> 00:07:42,295 with the Industrial Revolution, 154 00:07:42,297 --> 00:07:45,035 and this is where Marxism got so much traction, 155 00:07:45,037 --> 00:07:48,209 was that machines actually did render 156 00:07:48,211 --> 00:07:50,293 a lot of people unemployed, okay? 157 00:07:50,295 --> 00:07:53,298 That already happened in the 19th and 20th centuries. 158 00:07:53,498 --> 00:07:56,459 And it was only by labor organizing itself 159 00:07:56,461 --> 00:07:57,764 that it was able to kind of deal 160 00:07:57,766 --> 00:07:59,563 with the situation intelligently 161 00:07:59,845 --> 00:08:01,873 because there was no automatic, you might say, 162 00:08:01,875 --> 00:08:03,248 transition to something else. 163 00:08:03,250 --> 00:08:05,069 It was just, you know, "We don't need you anymore. 164 00:08:05,071 --> 00:08:06,577 We have these more efficient machines, 165 00:08:06,579 --> 00:08:09,533 and so now you just have to find work somewhere else." 166 00:08:09,535 --> 00:08:12,053 Automation clearly has been happening for a long time, 167 00:08:12,055 --> 00:08:14,738 and it has, you know, automated 168 00:08:14,740 --> 00:08:17,269 a lot of very laborious work that we don't want to do, 169 00:08:17,271 --> 00:08:19,533 and that's gonna continue to be the case in the future, 170 00:08:19,535 --> 00:08:22,493 but I do think that this time is genuinely different. 171 00:08:22,552 --> 00:08:24,694 If we look at what's happened historically, 172 00:08:24,696 --> 00:08:26,381 what we've seen is that automation 173 00:08:26,383 --> 00:08:28,762 has primarily been a mechanical phenomenon, 174 00:08:28,764 --> 00:08:30,365 and the classic example of that 175 00:08:30,367 --> 00:08:31,780 is, of course, agriculture. 176 00:08:31,782 --> 00:08:33,165 I'm a farmer. 177 00:08:33,233 --> 00:08:35,280 Here's what mechanical engineering has done 178 00:08:35,282 --> 00:08:37,246 for all of us who work on the farms 179 00:08:37,248 --> 00:08:38,686 and for you, too. 180 00:08:38,688 --> 00:08:40,217 It used to be, in the United States 181 00:08:40,219 --> 00:08:41,518 and in most advanced countries, 182 00:08:41,520 --> 00:08:43,251 that most people worked on farms. 183 00:08:43,508 --> 00:08:45,248 Now, almost no one works on a farm. 184 00:08:45,250 --> 00:08:46,824 It's less than two percent. 185 00:08:46,826 --> 00:08:49,316 And, of course, as a result of that, we're better off. 186 00:08:49,318 --> 00:08:52,475 We have, you know, more comfortable jobs, 187 00:08:52,477 --> 00:08:53,710 food is cheaper, 188 00:08:53,712 --> 00:08:55,533 we have a much more advanced society. 189 00:08:55,535 --> 00:08:57,788 The question is, "Can that continue indefinitely?" 190 00:08:57,790 --> 00:08:58,943 And what we're seeing this time 191 00:08:58,945 --> 00:09:01,123 is that things are really quite different. 192 00:09:01,125 --> 00:09:02,493 If this keeps up, 193 00:09:02,495 --> 00:09:05,859 it won't be long before machines will do everything. 194 00:09:05,861 --> 00:09:07,550 Nobody will have work. 195 00:09:07,552 --> 00:09:11,446 So as we move deeper into the automated future, 196 00:09:11,541 --> 00:09:14,926 we will see different stages take form. 197 00:09:14,928 --> 00:09:17,038 The first stage that we're entering 198 00:09:17,040 --> 00:09:19,623 is the stage where automated robots are working 199 00:09:19,625 --> 00:09:21,809 side by side with people in factories. 200 00:09:21,811 --> 00:09:23,893 Some of those jobs are slowly going away, 201 00:09:23,895 --> 00:09:27,178 but in the near future, within two to three years, 202 00:09:27,180 --> 00:09:29,370 you're going to see a huge percentage 203 00:09:29,372 --> 00:09:31,169 of those factory jobs be replaced 204 00:09:31,171 --> 00:09:34,273 with automated systems and automated robots. 205 00:09:34,275 --> 00:09:39,014 The next stage following that is we could see 206 00:09:39,016 --> 00:09:42,178 up to a third of jobs in America 207 00:09:42,180 --> 00:09:45,540 be replaced by 2025 208 00:09:45,631 --> 00:09:48,071 by robots or automated systems. 209 00:09:48,074 --> 00:09:49,670 That's a huge percentage of people 210 00:09:49,672 --> 00:09:51,187 that could be unemployed 211 00:09:51,189 --> 00:09:53,428 because of this automated tsunami 212 00:09:53,430 --> 00:09:54,503 that's coming, basically. 213 00:09:54,505 --> 00:09:57,561 We have a colleague here called Carl Frey 214 00:09:57,563 --> 00:10:01,936 who has put together a list of jobs 215 00:10:01,938 --> 00:10:03,217 by their vulnerability 216 00:10:03,219 --> 00:10:06,040 to getting replaced by automation, 217 00:10:06,185 --> 00:10:09,311 and the least vulnerable are things like choreographers, 218 00:10:09,313 --> 00:10:12,282 managers, social workers. 219 00:10:12,564 --> 00:10:15,038 People who have people skills 220 00:10:15,040 --> 00:10:18,618 and who have creativity. 221 00:10:19,575 --> 00:10:26,173 [music] 222 00:10:29,136 --> 00:10:31,013 One area that I look a lot at is fast food. 223 00:10:31,015 --> 00:10:33,311 I mean, the fast food industry is tremendously important 224 00:10:33,313 --> 00:10:34,527 in American economy. 225 00:10:34,529 --> 00:10:37,459 If you look at the years since recovery 226 00:10:37,461 --> 00:10:38,860 from the Great Recession, 227 00:10:39,138 --> 00:10:42,092 the majority of jobs, somewhere around 60 percent, 228 00:10:42,094 --> 00:10:44,693 have been low-wage service sector jobs. 229 00:10:44,695 --> 00:10:46,954 A lot of those have been in areas like fast food, 230 00:10:46,956 --> 00:10:49,815 and yet, to me, it seems almost inevitable 231 00:10:49,817 --> 00:10:52,556 that, ultimately, fast food is gonna automate. 232 00:10:52,558 --> 00:10:55,152 There's a company right here in San Francisco 233 00:10:55,154 --> 00:10:58,712 called "Momentum Machines" which is actually working on 234 00:10:59,495 --> 00:11:01,545 a machine to automate hamburger production, 235 00:11:01,547 --> 00:11:02,850 and it can crank out 236 00:11:02,852 --> 00:11:07,238 about 400 gourmet hamburgers per hour, 237 00:11:07,240 --> 00:11:11,642 and they ultimately expect to sort of roll that out 238 00:11:11,644 --> 00:11:14,858 not just in fast food establishments, 239 00:11:14,860 --> 00:11:16,447 perhaps in convenience stores 240 00:11:16,449 --> 00:11:17,772 and maybe even vending machines. 241 00:11:17,774 --> 00:11:19,399 It could be all over the place. 242 00:11:20,295 --> 00:11:23,962 [music] 243 00:11:24,271 --> 00:11:27,727 I can see manufacturing now becoming completely automated. 244 00:11:27,729 --> 00:11:29,561 I can see, you know, hundreds of millions 245 00:11:29,563 --> 00:11:31,093 of workers being put out of jobs, 246 00:11:31,095 --> 00:11:32,855 That's almost certain it's gonna happen. 247 00:11:32,924 --> 00:11:35,084 So you have lots of companies right now that are automating 248 00:11:35,086 --> 00:11:37,163 their factories and their warehouses. 249 00:11:37,165 --> 00:11:38,554 Amazon is a great example. 250 00:11:38,556 --> 00:11:41,202 They're using robots to automate their systems. 251 00:11:41,204 --> 00:11:43,295 The robots actually grab the products 252 00:11:43,297 --> 00:11:44,569 and bring the products to the people 253 00:11:44,571 --> 00:11:46,876 who put those products into the box. 254 00:11:46,982 --> 00:11:48,967 So there are still people 255 00:11:48,969 --> 00:11:50,973 within the factories at Amazon, 256 00:11:50,975 --> 00:11:53,743 but in the near future, those jobs may go away as well. 257 00:11:54,084 --> 00:11:56,733 There is a company here in Silicon Valley 258 00:11:56,735 --> 00:11:58,394 called "Industrial Perception," 259 00:11:58,396 --> 00:12:01,373 and they built a robot that can approach 260 00:12:01,375 --> 00:12:04,803 a stack of boxes that are sort of stacked haphazardly 261 00:12:04,805 --> 00:12:06,973 in some nonstandard way 262 00:12:06,975 --> 00:12:10,077 and visually, by looking at that stack of boxes, 263 00:12:10,079 --> 00:12:11,725 figure out how to move those boxes. 264 00:12:11,727 --> 00:12:13,594 And they built a machine that ultimately 265 00:12:13,596 --> 00:12:17,219 will be able to move perhaps one box every second, 266 00:12:17,240 --> 00:12:19,967 and that compares with about three seconds 267 00:12:19,969 --> 00:12:22,923 for a human worker who's very industrious. 268 00:12:22,925 --> 00:12:24,998 Okay, and this machine, you can imagine, 269 00:12:25,000 --> 00:12:26,170 will work continuously. 270 00:12:26,172 --> 00:12:27,533 It's never gonna get injured, 271 00:12:27,535 --> 00:12:30,548 never file a workers' compensation claim, 272 00:12:30,755 --> 00:12:33,133 and, yet, it's moving into an area 273 00:12:33,135 --> 00:12:35,373 that, up until now, at least, we would have said 274 00:12:35,375 --> 00:12:38,467 is really something that is exclusively 275 00:12:38,469 --> 00:12:40,373 the province of the human worker. 276 00:12:40,375 --> 00:12:44,851 I mean, it's this ability to look at something 277 00:12:44,853 --> 00:12:47,121 and then based on what you see, 278 00:12:47,123 --> 00:12:48,584 manipulate your environment. 279 00:12:48,586 --> 00:12:50,342 It's sort of the confluence 280 00:12:50,344 --> 00:12:53,376 of visual perception and dexterity. 281 00:12:53,811 --> 00:12:56,571 [music] 282 00:12:56,615 --> 00:12:58,928 We'll see self-driving cars on the road 283 00:12:58,930 --> 00:13:00,493 within 10 or 15 years. 284 00:13:00,638 --> 00:13:02,202 Fifteen years from now, we'll be debating 285 00:13:02,204 --> 00:13:04,761 whether we should even allow human beings to be 286 00:13:04,763 --> 00:13:06,472 be on the road at all. 287 00:13:06,474 --> 00:13:08,773 Tesla says that by next year, 288 00:13:08,775 --> 00:13:12,860 that, you know, their cars will be 90 percent automated. 289 00:13:13,154 --> 00:13:15,280 Which means that the jobs of taxi drivers, 290 00:13:15,282 --> 00:13:17,242 truck drivers, goes away. 291 00:13:17,412 --> 00:13:20,253 Suddenly, we don't need to own cars anymore. 292 00:13:20,255 --> 00:13:24,274 Humanity isn't ready for such a basic change such as that. 293 00:13:26,037 --> 00:13:27,850 Call center jobs, voice recognition 294 00:13:27,852 --> 00:13:29,902 is pretty sophisticated these days. 295 00:13:29,904 --> 00:13:34,123 And you can imagine replacing many kinds of, 296 00:13:34,125 --> 00:13:35,813 you know, helplines and things. 297 00:13:35,815 --> 00:13:38,264 There's a company called "IPsoft" that has created 298 00:13:38,266 --> 00:13:41,533 an intelligent software system, 299 00:13:41,535 --> 00:13:43,975 an automated system, called "Amelia." 300 00:13:44,068 --> 00:13:46,813 She can not only understand what you're saying to her, 301 00:13:46,815 --> 00:13:49,634 she understands the context of what you're saying, 302 00:13:49,636 --> 00:13:51,533 and she can learn from her mistakes. 303 00:13:51,535 --> 00:13:53,973 This is a huge deal because what we're going to see 304 00:13:53,975 --> 00:13:56,213 is all of the customer service agent jobs, 305 00:13:56,215 --> 00:13:58,634 if she is successful, if this software program, 306 00:13:58,636 --> 00:14:01,327 this automated software program is successful, 307 00:14:01,329 --> 00:14:04,339 we could see all of those jobs go away. 308 00:14:04,341 --> 00:14:06,300 These things tend to go to marginal cost, 309 00:14:06,302 --> 00:14:10,077 and marginal cost is copying software, which is nothing, 310 00:14:10,079 --> 00:14:12,030 and running it on a computer 311 00:14:12,032 --> 00:14:13,641 which will probably be very cheap. 312 00:14:14,201 --> 00:14:17,081 [music] 313 00:14:17,412 --> 00:14:21,311 Human doctors will be, in some respect, pushed aside 314 00:14:21,313 --> 00:14:22,944 because machines can do a better job 315 00:14:22,946 --> 00:14:24,474 of diagnosis than they can. 316 00:14:24,476 --> 00:14:26,381 Now will they have the empathy that current doctors do? 317 00:14:26,383 --> 00:14:28,292 I don't know, but at least they'll have the knowledge 318 00:14:28,294 --> 00:14:30,013 that our doctors do, they'll be more advanced, 319 00:14:30,015 --> 00:14:31,493 so I can see this option in healthcare. 320 00:14:31,495 --> 00:14:33,994 The one that is likely to be the biggest growth area, 321 00:14:33,996 --> 00:14:37,453 from an economic standpoint, is the android companions 322 00:14:37,455 --> 00:14:40,655 to help elderly people, okay, because there's... 323 00:14:40,657 --> 00:14:43,108 you know, given the rise in elderly people 324 00:14:43,110 --> 00:14:46,133 over the next 20, 30 years, that it's... 325 00:14:46,135 --> 00:14:48,100 and it's unlikely there are gonna be enough people 326 00:14:48,102 --> 00:14:49,785 going into the nursing profession 327 00:14:49,787 --> 00:14:52,686 to actually serve them, especially if we're thinking 328 00:14:52,688 --> 00:14:55,102 in terms of home-based care. 329 00:14:55,677 --> 00:14:58,452 The robot surgeon, I think, is something that will happen 330 00:14:58,454 --> 00:15:01,053 in the not-too-distant future 331 00:15:01,055 --> 00:15:05,733 because a lot of that is to do with manual dexterity 332 00:15:05,735 --> 00:15:10,053 and having the expertise to recognize... 333 00:15:10,055 --> 00:15:13,933 to understand what you're manipulating as a surgeon. 334 00:15:13,935 --> 00:15:17,253 Terrific amount of expertise for a human to accumulate, 335 00:15:17,255 --> 00:15:19,173 but I can imagine that we would be able to build 336 00:15:19,175 --> 00:15:21,973 something that is a specialized robot surgeon 337 00:15:21,975 --> 00:15:24,092 that can carry out particular operations 338 00:15:24,094 --> 00:15:26,173 such as a prostate operation. 339 00:15:26,175 --> 00:15:28,154 That's one that people are working on right now, 340 00:15:28,156 --> 00:15:29,748 and I think they're nearly there 341 00:15:29,750 --> 00:15:31,053 of being able to produce 342 00:15:31,055 --> 00:15:32,847 a reliable robot surgeon that can do that. 343 00:15:32,849 --> 00:15:34,670 You might not want to submit yourself to this thing, 344 00:15:34,672 --> 00:15:36,832 you might think, but in fact, I think we'll be able to make 345 00:15:36,834 --> 00:15:40,134 a very reliable robot surgeon to do that sort of thing. 346 00:15:41,095 --> 00:15:46,344 [music] 347 00:15:47,075 --> 00:15:48,754 I can see this option in finance 348 00:15:48,756 --> 00:15:50,769 because they're moving to digital currencies. 349 00:15:50,771 --> 00:15:53,813 And we're now moving to crowdfunding 350 00:15:53,815 --> 00:15:57,074 and crowdbanking and all these other advances. 351 00:15:57,076 --> 00:15:59,334 One of my favorites is investment bankers. 352 00:15:59,336 --> 00:16:03,213 Artificial intelligence already does more 353 00:16:03,215 --> 00:16:06,074 stock market trades today than any human being. 354 00:16:06,076 --> 00:16:09,773 Lots of decisions like decisions about mortgages 355 00:16:09,775 --> 00:16:12,293 and insurance, already those things have been, 356 00:16:12,295 --> 00:16:14,674 you know, largely taken over by programs, 357 00:16:14,676 --> 00:16:17,634 and I think that kind of trend is only gonna continue. 358 00:16:18,575 --> 00:16:23,985 [music] 359 00:16:29,146 --> 00:16:31,524 Every time there's a technological change, 360 00:16:31,526 --> 00:16:33,741 it will, unfortunately, put a lot of people out of work. 361 00:16:33,743 --> 00:16:35,234 It happened with the cotton gin. 362 00:16:35,236 --> 00:16:38,883 It's happened with every single technological change. 363 00:16:39,021 --> 00:16:42,553 So, sure, technology destroys jobs, 364 00:16:42,555 --> 00:16:43,973 but it creates new ones. 365 00:16:43,975 --> 00:16:46,889 Moving from the age of work that we're in now 366 00:16:46,891 --> 00:16:50,688 into the abundant, ubiquitous automation age, 367 00:16:51,029 --> 00:16:53,459 that bridge that we have to cross 368 00:16:53,461 --> 00:16:56,021 is gonna be a very interesting time period. 369 00:16:56,087 --> 00:16:58,410 I think in the very beginning of that time period, 370 00:16:58,412 --> 00:17:02,308 you're going to see automation start to replace jobs, 371 00:17:02,310 --> 00:17:05,827 but those jobs will transfer into other forms of work. 372 00:17:05,829 --> 00:17:08,769 So, for example, instead of working in a factory, 373 00:17:08,771 --> 00:17:11,952 you will learn to code and you will code the robots 374 00:17:11,954 --> 00:17:13,413 that are working in the factory. 375 00:17:13,415 --> 00:17:16,533 When I was a young man and I went for careers advice, 376 00:17:16,535 --> 00:17:18,555 I don't know what they would have made of me 377 00:17:18,557 --> 00:17:22,362 asking for a job as a webmaster. 378 00:17:22,415 --> 00:17:25,318 It didn't exist, there wasn't a web at that time. 379 00:17:25,320 --> 00:17:28,485 And, right now, we have over 200,000 vacancies 380 00:17:28,487 --> 00:17:30,883 for people who can analyze big data. 381 00:17:30,885 --> 00:17:32,946 And we really do need people 382 00:17:32,948 --> 00:17:34,773 and mechanisms for analyzing it 383 00:17:34,775 --> 00:17:38,456 and getting the most information from that data, 384 00:17:38,578 --> 00:17:41,271 and that problem is only gonna increase in the future. 385 00:17:41,273 --> 00:17:43,860 And I do think that there's gonna be a lot of employment 386 00:17:43,862 --> 00:17:45,382 moving in that direction. 387 00:17:45,384 --> 00:17:49,264 [music] 388 00:17:50,210 --> 00:17:53,173 The history of our country proves that new inventions 389 00:17:53,175 --> 00:17:56,933 create thousands of jobs for every one they displace. 390 00:17:56,935 --> 00:18:01,063 So it wasn't long before your grandfather had a better job 391 00:18:01,065 --> 00:18:03,232 at more pay for less work. 392 00:18:03,234 --> 00:18:05,093 We're always offered this solution 393 00:18:05,095 --> 00:18:07,336 of still more education, still more training. 394 00:18:07,338 --> 00:18:08,688 If people lose their routine job, 395 00:18:08,690 --> 00:18:10,360 then let's send them back to school. 396 00:18:10,362 --> 00:18:11,660 They'll pick up some new skills, 397 00:18:11,662 --> 00:18:13,589 they'll learn something new, and then they'll be able 398 00:18:13,591 --> 00:18:16,022 to move into some more rewarding career. 399 00:18:16,024 --> 00:18:18,156 That's not gonna operate so well in the future 400 00:18:18,158 --> 00:18:19,648 where the machines are coming 401 00:18:19,650 --> 00:18:21,420 for those skilled jobs as well. 402 00:18:21,422 --> 00:18:22,985 The fact is that machines are really good at 403 00:18:22,987 --> 00:18:24,625 picking up skills and doing all kinds 404 00:18:24,627 --> 00:18:26,651 of extraordinarily complex things, 405 00:18:26,656 --> 00:18:28,110 so those jobs aren't necessarily 406 00:18:28,112 --> 00:18:29,653 gonna be there either. 407 00:18:29,655 --> 00:18:32,466 And a second insight, I think, is that historically, 408 00:18:32,468 --> 00:18:35,391 it's always been the case that the vast majority of people 409 00:18:35,393 --> 00:18:37,193 have always done routine work. 410 00:18:37,195 --> 00:18:40,013 So even if people can make that transition, 411 00:18:40,015 --> 00:18:41,613 if they can succeed in going back to school 412 00:18:41,615 --> 00:18:43,938 and learning something new, in percentage terms, 413 00:18:43,940 --> 00:18:46,013 those jobs don't constitute 414 00:18:46,015 --> 00:18:47,554 that much of the total employment out there. 415 00:18:47,556 --> 00:18:49,716 I mean, most people are doing these more routine things. 416 00:18:49,718 --> 00:18:51,413 So, you know, we're up against a real problem 417 00:18:51,415 --> 00:18:54,262 that's probably gonna require a political solution. 418 00:18:54,264 --> 00:18:59,109 It's probably going to require direct redistribution. 419 00:18:59,111 --> 00:19:00,281 That's my take on it, 420 00:19:00,283 --> 00:19:03,914 and that's a staggering political challenge, 421 00:19:03,916 --> 00:19:05,455 especially in the United States. 422 00:19:05,530 --> 00:19:07,773 This would be fine if we had generations 423 00:19:07,775 --> 00:19:11,304 to adapt to the change so that the next generation 424 00:19:11,306 --> 00:19:12,898 could develop a different lifestyle, 425 00:19:12,900 --> 00:19:14,180 different value system. 426 00:19:14,233 --> 00:19:16,218 The problem is that all of this is happening 427 00:19:16,220 --> 00:19:17,211 within the same generation. 428 00:19:17,213 --> 00:19:19,013 Within a period of 15 years, 429 00:19:19,015 --> 00:19:22,549 we're gonna start wiping out most of the jobs that we know. 430 00:19:22,562 --> 00:19:24,744 That's really what worries me. 431 00:19:25,175 --> 00:19:28,533 A term commonly used when describing the trajectory 432 00:19:28,535 --> 00:19:31,797 of technological progress and where it's leading us 433 00:19:31,799 --> 00:19:34,676 is the "technological singularity." 434 00:19:34,678 --> 00:19:36,551 The term is borrowed from physics 435 00:19:36,553 --> 00:19:40,380 to describe an event horizon or a moment in space time 436 00:19:40,382 --> 00:19:42,262 that you cannot see beyond. 437 00:19:42,335 --> 00:19:44,781 We are currently in the transistor era 438 00:19:44,783 --> 00:19:46,663 of information technology. 439 00:19:46,763 --> 00:19:51,438 In 1965, co-founder of Intel, Gordon Moore, 440 00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:53,984 made the observation that the processing power 441 00:19:53,986 --> 00:19:57,174 of computers doubles every 18 months. 442 00:19:57,323 --> 00:19:59,781 The prediction that this trend will continue 443 00:19:59,783 --> 00:20:01,721 is known as Moore's Law. 444 00:20:02,139 --> 00:20:03,406 When Intel created 445 00:20:03,408 --> 00:20:07,150 their first computer processing unit in 1971, 446 00:20:07,311 --> 00:20:10,295 it has 2,300 transistors 447 00:20:10,297 --> 00:20:14,908 and had a processing speed of 740 kilohertz. 448 00:20:14,975 --> 00:20:19,523 Today, a typical CPU has over a billion transistors 449 00:20:19,525 --> 00:20:22,310 with an average speed of two gigahertz. 450 00:20:22,312 --> 00:20:25,613 However, many predict that by 2020, 451 00:20:25,615 --> 00:20:28,859 the miniaturization of transistors and silicon chips 452 00:20:28,861 --> 00:20:30,221 will reach its limit, 453 00:20:30,255 --> 00:20:34,807 and Moore's Law will fizzle out into a post-silicon era. 454 00:20:35,288 --> 00:20:37,328 Another way of describing the term 455 00:20:37,330 --> 00:20:39,801 "technological singularity" 456 00:20:39,803 --> 00:20:42,373 is a time when artificial intelligence 457 00:20:42,375 --> 00:20:45,603 surpasses human intellectual capacity. 458 00:20:45,873 --> 00:20:47,539 But does this mean that a computer 459 00:20:47,541 --> 00:20:49,203 can produce a new idea 460 00:20:49,205 --> 00:20:52,245 or make an original contribution to knowledge? 461 00:20:52,255 --> 00:20:55,765 Artificial intelligence, AI, is a longstanding project 462 00:20:55,767 --> 00:20:58,507 which has to do with basically trying 463 00:20:58,509 --> 00:21:00,711 to use machines as a way of trying to understand 464 00:21:00,713 --> 00:21:02,314 the nature of intelligence 465 00:21:02,495 --> 00:21:04,625 and, originally, the idea was, in some sense, 466 00:21:04,627 --> 00:21:06,853 to manufacture within machines 467 00:21:06,855 --> 00:21:09,343 something that could simulate human intelligence. 468 00:21:09,345 --> 00:21:11,514 But I think now, as the years have gone on, 469 00:21:11,516 --> 00:21:13,285 we now think in terms of intelligence 470 00:21:13,287 --> 00:21:14,733 in a much more abstract way, 471 00:21:14,735 --> 00:21:18,228 so the ability to engage in massive computations, 472 00:21:18,230 --> 00:21:20,013 right, where you can end up making 473 00:21:20,015 --> 00:21:22,410 quite intelligent decisions much more quickly 474 00:21:22,412 --> 00:21:23,730 than a human being can. 475 00:21:23,732 --> 00:21:25,707 So in this respect, artificial intelligence 476 00:21:25,709 --> 00:21:27,533 in a sense is a, you might say, 477 00:21:27,535 --> 00:21:29,598 as trying to go to the next level of intelligence 478 00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:31,162 beyond the human. 479 00:21:32,589 --> 00:21:34,874 A proper AI could substitute 480 00:21:34,876 --> 00:21:39,394 for practically any human job at some level of skill, 481 00:21:39,396 --> 00:21:42,181 so it's... it would be 482 00:21:42,183 --> 00:21:44,093 a completely different situation. 483 00:21:44,095 --> 00:21:47,274 You can imagine any kind of job could, in theory, 484 00:21:47,276 --> 00:21:51,576 be replaced by technology, if you build human-level AI. 485 00:21:51,935 --> 00:21:55,553 Now that, of course, may or may not be a good thing. 486 00:21:55,913 --> 00:21:58,590 You'd be able to, for example, make robots 487 00:21:58,592 --> 00:22:00,582 that could do all kinds of jobs 488 00:22:00,584 --> 00:22:02,637 that humans don't necessarily want to do. 489 00:22:02,639 --> 00:22:05,473 There are the so-called three D's jobs 490 00:22:05,475 --> 00:22:08,110 that are dirty, dangerous, or dull, 491 00:22:08,112 --> 00:22:10,012 which humans might not want to do, 492 00:22:10,014 --> 00:22:12,762 and yet, where you might actually want 493 00:22:12,764 --> 00:22:14,269 a human level of intelligence 494 00:22:14,271 --> 00:22:15,973 to do the job well or do the job properly. 495 00:22:15,975 --> 00:22:18,043 These are things which are achievable. 496 00:22:18,045 --> 00:22:19,519 - Yeah. - This isn't something... 497 00:22:19,521 --> 00:22:20,973 I don't think it's science fiction. 498 00:22:20,975 --> 00:22:22,777 I think this is entirely feasible 499 00:22:22,779 --> 00:22:25,160 that we could build a computer 500 00:22:25,162 --> 00:22:27,153 which is vastly superhuman 501 00:22:27,155 --> 00:22:29,713 which is conscious, which has emotions, 502 00:22:29,715 --> 00:22:32,399 which is, essentially, a new species 503 00:22:32,401 --> 00:22:36,071 of self-aware intelligence and conscious in every way 504 00:22:36,073 --> 00:22:38,393 and has got emotions the same as you and I do. 505 00:22:38,395 --> 00:22:40,337 I don't see any fundamental limits 506 00:22:40,339 --> 00:22:42,720 on what we can do, and we already know enough 507 00:22:42,722 --> 00:22:45,884 about basic science to start doing that now. 508 00:22:45,886 --> 00:22:48,715 So some people are concerned about, 509 00:22:48,717 --> 00:22:52,681 you know, possible risks of building AI 510 00:22:52,683 --> 00:22:55,209 and building something that is very, very powerful 511 00:22:55,815 --> 00:22:58,017 where there are unintended consequences 512 00:22:58,019 --> 00:23:00,813 of the thing that you've built and where it might 513 00:23:00,815 --> 00:23:02,306 do things that you can't predict 514 00:23:02,308 --> 00:23:04,360 that might be extremely dangerous. 515 00:23:04,362 --> 00:23:06,233 So a so-called "existential risk," 516 00:23:06,235 --> 00:23:07,446 as some people call it. 517 00:23:07,448 --> 00:23:10,235 We are going to hand off to our machines 518 00:23:10,323 --> 00:23:12,407 all the multidimensional problems 519 00:23:12,409 --> 00:23:14,571 that we are incapable of coping with. 520 00:23:14,573 --> 00:23:17,753 You and I can take a problem with two or three 521 00:23:17,755 --> 00:23:20,665 or four or even seven inputs. 522 00:23:20,667 --> 00:23:21,813 But 300? 523 00:23:21,815 --> 00:23:24,073 A thousand, a million inputs? 524 00:23:24,075 --> 00:23:25,524 We're dead in the water. 525 00:23:25,526 --> 00:23:27,454 The machines can cope with that. 526 00:23:27,456 --> 00:23:29,235 The advantage that computers have 527 00:23:29,237 --> 00:23:31,987 is that they communicate at gigabit speeds. 528 00:23:31,989 --> 00:23:33,728 They all network together. 529 00:23:33,730 --> 00:23:35,384 We talk in slow motion. 530 00:23:35,386 --> 00:23:39,235 So computers will achieve this level of awareness 531 00:23:39,279 --> 00:23:41,173 probably in the next 20, 30, 40 years. 532 00:23:41,175 --> 00:23:44,475 It's not that if it's good or that it's evil. 533 00:23:44,651 --> 00:23:46,082 It's we're probably good enough 534 00:23:46,084 --> 00:23:48,315 to not program an evil AI. 535 00:23:48,386 --> 00:23:51,319 It's that if it's lethally indifferent. 536 00:23:52,097 --> 00:23:53,798 If it has certain things 537 00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:57,168 that it's tasked with accomplishing 538 00:23:57,170 --> 00:23:59,024 and humans are in the way. 539 00:23:59,026 --> 00:24:02,103 So there's this concern that once we reach that moment 540 00:24:02,105 --> 00:24:04,233 where the computers outperform us 541 00:24:04,235 --> 00:24:06,462 in ways that are quite meaningful, 542 00:24:06,464 --> 00:24:10,142 that then they will somehow be motivated to dispose of us 543 00:24:10,144 --> 00:24:12,556 or take over us or something of this kind. 544 00:24:12,558 --> 00:24:14,454 I don't really believe that 545 00:24:14,456 --> 00:24:16,720 because these kinds of developments, 546 00:24:16,722 --> 00:24:18,962 which probably are a little farther off in the future 547 00:24:18,964 --> 00:24:20,833 than some of their enthusiasts think, 548 00:24:20,835 --> 00:24:23,134 there will be time for us to adapt, 549 00:24:23,136 --> 00:24:26,103 to come to terms with it, to organize social systems 550 00:24:26,105 --> 00:24:28,056 that will enable us to deal adequately 551 00:24:28,058 --> 00:24:30,087 with these new forms of intelligence. 552 00:24:30,089 --> 00:24:31,813 So I don't this is not just gonna be something 553 00:24:31,815 --> 00:24:34,055 that's gonna happen as a miracle tomorrow 554 00:24:34,057 --> 00:24:35,704 and then we'll be taken by surprise. 555 00:24:35,706 --> 00:24:37,751 But I do think the key thing here is 556 00:24:37,753 --> 00:24:40,893 that we need to treat these futuristic things 557 00:24:40,895 --> 00:24:43,653 as not as far away as people say they are. 558 00:24:43,655 --> 00:24:45,597 Just because they're not likely to happen 559 00:24:45,599 --> 00:24:47,055 in 15 years, let's say, 560 00:24:47,057 --> 00:24:49,093 it doesn't mean they won't happen in 50 years. 561 00:24:49,095 --> 00:24:52,973 It's gonna be of kind of historical dimensions, 562 00:24:52,975 --> 00:24:54,893 and it's very hard to predict, I think, 563 00:24:54,895 --> 00:24:59,386 whether it's gonna take us in a utopian direction 564 00:24:59,388 --> 00:25:00,973 or in a dystopian direction 565 00:25:00,975 --> 00:25:03,621 or more likely something in between, 566 00:25:03,623 --> 00:25:04,882 but just very different. 567 00:25:04,884 --> 00:25:06,244 Very hard to predict. 568 00:25:06,487 --> 00:25:09,074 You see, it's our job to take raw materials, 569 00:25:09,076 --> 00:25:10,815 adapt them to useful forms, 570 00:25:11,018 --> 00:25:14,157 take natural forces, harness them to do man's work. 571 00:25:14,159 --> 00:25:16,333 The automated systems of the future 572 00:25:16,335 --> 00:25:19,533 are a natural process of human innovation. 573 00:25:19,535 --> 00:25:23,740 It all comes back to the idea of doing more with less. 574 00:25:24,167 --> 00:25:25,714 This process of innovation 575 00:25:25,716 --> 00:25:29,194 is driven not by necessity, but desire, 576 00:25:29,196 --> 00:25:32,076 or to simply fill a gap in the market. 577 00:25:32,674 --> 00:25:35,093 Farm owners didn't really need to replace 578 00:25:35,095 --> 00:25:37,893 their workers with machines, but they did so 579 00:25:37,895 --> 00:25:40,558 because they could foresee the benefits. 580 00:25:40,560 --> 00:25:42,954 It's a natural cycle of business. 581 00:25:42,956 --> 00:25:46,920 Doing more with less leads to greater prosperity. 582 00:25:48,096 --> 00:25:49,824 The hope is that we can adapt to this 583 00:25:49,826 --> 00:25:51,199 politically and socially. 584 00:25:51,201 --> 00:25:52,089 In order to do that, 585 00:25:52,091 --> 00:25:53,832 we have to begin a conversation now. 586 00:25:53,834 --> 00:25:55,748 Remember that we're up against 587 00:25:55,940 --> 00:25:58,333 an exponential arc of progress. 588 00:25:58,335 --> 00:26:00,573 Things are gonna keep moving faster and faster, 589 00:26:00,575 --> 00:26:02,693 so we need to start talking about this now 590 00:26:02,695 --> 00:26:04,535 and we need to sort of get the word out there 591 00:26:04,537 --> 00:26:05,794 so that people will realize 592 00:26:05,796 --> 00:26:08,102 that this problem is coming at us, 593 00:26:08,104 --> 00:26:10,034 so that we can begin to discuss 594 00:26:10,036 --> 00:26:11,855 viable political solutions to this 595 00:26:11,857 --> 00:26:14,436 because, again, I think it will require, 596 00:26:14,438 --> 00:26:15,938 ultimately, a political choice. 597 00:26:15,940 --> 00:26:19,787 It's not something that is gonna sort itself out 598 00:26:19,854 --> 00:26:22,894 by itself as a result of the normal functioning 599 00:26:22,896 --> 00:26:24,453 of the market economy. 600 00:26:24,455 --> 00:26:26,457 It's something that will require 601 00:26:26,459 --> 00:26:28,093 some sort of an intervention 602 00:26:28,095 --> 00:26:29,628 and, you know, part of the problem is 603 00:26:29,630 --> 00:26:30,774 that in the United States, 604 00:26:30,776 --> 00:26:34,287 roughly half of the population is very conservative 605 00:26:34,346 --> 00:26:36,738 and they really don't believe in this idea 606 00:26:36,740 --> 00:26:39,314 of intervention in the market. 607 00:26:39,316 --> 00:26:41,333 It's gonna be a tough transition, 608 00:26:41,335 --> 00:26:43,464 and those that find themselves out of jobs 609 00:26:43,466 --> 00:26:45,589 because a robot has taken it 610 00:26:45,591 --> 00:26:47,394 are gonna be pretty pissed off. 611 00:26:47,396 --> 00:26:51,095 The effect of automation on jobs and livelihood 612 00:26:51,253 --> 00:26:54,344 is going to be behind this like the original Luddites. 613 00:26:54,346 --> 00:26:56,587 It wasn't... it wasn't that they were against 614 00:26:56,589 --> 00:26:59,474 technological developments in some ethereal sense. 615 00:26:59,476 --> 00:27:02,356 It was that this was taking their damn jobs. 616 00:27:02,448 --> 00:27:05,234 I absolutely think there could be a Neo-Luddite movement 617 00:27:05,236 --> 00:27:07,714 against the future, against technology 618 00:27:07,716 --> 00:27:09,027 because they're gonna say, 619 00:27:09,029 --> 00:27:10,293 "Well, hey, you're taking our jobs, 620 00:27:10,295 --> 00:27:11,653 you're taking our livelihoods away. 621 00:27:11,655 --> 00:27:13,413 You're taking everything away from us." 622 00:27:13,415 --> 00:27:15,634 But I think that's when it's gonna be important 623 00:27:15,636 --> 00:27:18,829 that leaders and government step in and say, 624 00:27:18,831 --> 00:27:20,180 "It may seem that way, 625 00:27:20,182 --> 00:27:21,891 but life is going to get better for everyone." 626 00:27:21,893 --> 00:27:24,457 We're gonna have more time to do things that we want, 627 00:27:24,459 --> 00:27:26,152 more vacations, more passions. 628 00:27:26,154 --> 00:27:27,462 This is the modern world. 629 00:27:27,464 --> 00:27:30,774 We can create the utopia that we've always dreamt of. 630 00:27:30,776 --> 00:27:33,474 Why are we saying, "My job's not safe," 631 00:27:33,476 --> 00:27:36,853 or, "Automation's going to steal my jobs"? 632 00:27:36,855 --> 00:27:38,573 These are the... these are the phrases 633 00:27:38,575 --> 00:27:40,653 that keep getting pushed out there. 634 00:27:40,655 --> 00:27:41,653 They're negative phrases, 635 00:27:41,655 --> 00:27:45,027 and instead, it seems that we would look at this, 636 00:27:45,029 --> 00:27:46,837 especially if someone has been working in a factory 637 00:27:46,839 --> 00:27:47,921 their whole life, 638 00:27:47,923 --> 00:27:49,969 that they would look at that system and say, 639 00:27:49,971 --> 00:27:53,333 "Thank goodness that this is starting to be automated." 640 00:27:53,335 --> 00:27:55,173 I don't want anyone to have to crawl 641 00:27:55,175 --> 00:27:58,293 into a hole in the ground and pull up coal. 642 00:27:58,295 --> 00:28:00,773 No human being should have to go do that. 643 00:28:00,775 --> 00:28:03,133 If you make an awful lot of computers 644 00:28:03,135 --> 00:28:05,493 and a lot of robots, and the computers can make 645 00:28:05,495 --> 00:28:07,053 those robots very sophisticated 646 00:28:07,055 --> 00:28:08,413 and do lots of sophisticated jobs, 647 00:28:08,415 --> 00:28:11,893 you could eliminate most of the high-value physical jobs 648 00:28:11,895 --> 00:28:14,653 and also most of the high-value intellectual jobs. 649 00:28:14,655 --> 00:28:16,973 What you're left with, then, are those jobs 650 00:28:16,975 --> 00:28:18,573 where you have to be a human being, 651 00:28:18,575 --> 00:28:20,973 so I find it quite paradoxical in some ways 652 00:28:20,975 --> 00:28:22,893 that the more advanced the technology becomes, 653 00:28:22,895 --> 00:28:25,519 the more it forces us to become humans. 654 00:28:25,521 --> 00:28:26,860 So in some ways, it's very good. 655 00:28:26,862 --> 00:28:29,785 It forces us to explore what is humanity about? 656 00:28:29,787 --> 00:28:31,238 What are the fundamentally important 657 00:28:31,240 --> 00:28:32,373 things about being a human? 658 00:28:32,375 --> 00:28:34,573 It's not being able to, you know, flip a burger 659 00:28:34,575 --> 00:28:37,574 or, you know, carve something intricately. 660 00:28:37,576 --> 00:28:39,154 A computer or a robot 661 00:28:39,156 --> 00:28:41,172 could do that far better than a human being. 662 00:28:41,174 --> 00:28:43,477 One thing I've noticed, if you talk to techno-optimists 663 00:28:43,479 --> 00:28:46,773 about the future of work and how it's gonna unfold, 664 00:28:46,775 --> 00:28:49,234 very often they will focus on this issue 665 00:28:49,236 --> 00:28:51,980 of how will we all be fulfilled in the future? 666 00:28:51,982 --> 00:28:53,691 What will be our purpose in life 667 00:28:53,693 --> 00:28:55,133 when we don't want to work? 668 00:28:55,255 --> 00:28:58,173 And, you know, you can sort of posit this 669 00:28:58,175 --> 00:29:00,333 in terms of... there was a guy named Maslow 670 00:29:00,335 --> 00:29:02,613 who came up with a hierarchy of human needs, 671 00:29:02,615 --> 00:29:03,980 Maslow's pyramid. 672 00:29:03,982 --> 00:29:05,453 And at the base of that pyramid 673 00:29:05,455 --> 00:29:08,707 are the foundational things like food and shelter, 674 00:29:08,709 --> 00:29:10,413 and at the top of that pyramid, of course, 675 00:29:10,415 --> 00:29:12,493 are all these intangible things like, you know, 676 00:29:12,495 --> 00:29:13,964 a sense of purpose in your life 677 00:29:13,966 --> 00:29:15,227 and fulfillment and so forth. 678 00:29:15,229 --> 00:29:18,730 What you'll find among the most techno-optimistic people 679 00:29:18,732 --> 00:29:20,314 is that they will want to skip 680 00:29:20,316 --> 00:29:21,613 right over the base of that pyramid 681 00:29:21,615 --> 00:29:24,173 and jump right to the top and start talking about, 682 00:29:24,175 --> 00:29:25,853 "Oh, gosh, how are we gonna," you know, 683 00:29:25,855 --> 00:29:27,474 "what's the meaning of our life gonna be 684 00:29:27,476 --> 00:29:28,895 when we don't have to work?" 685 00:29:28,897 --> 00:29:32,392 But the reality is that the base of that pyramid, 686 00:29:32,394 --> 00:29:34,769 food, shelter, all the things that we need 687 00:29:34,771 --> 00:29:36,314 to have, you know, a decent life, 688 00:29:36,316 --> 00:29:37,893 that's the elephant in the room. 689 00:29:37,895 --> 00:29:40,709 That stuff costs real money. 690 00:29:40,776 --> 00:29:42,141 That stuff is gonna involve 691 00:29:42,143 --> 00:29:44,480 perhaps raising taxes on a lot of the people 692 00:29:44,482 --> 00:29:45,954 that are doing really well right now, 693 00:29:45,956 --> 00:29:47,335 and that's probably part of the reason 694 00:29:47,337 --> 00:29:49,053 that they prefer not to talk about it. 695 00:29:49,055 --> 00:29:51,464 So what do we do with the 99 percent 696 00:29:51,466 --> 00:29:52,800 of the population on this planet 697 00:29:52,802 --> 00:29:54,322 if they don't have jobs? 698 00:29:54,455 --> 00:29:57,128 The suggestion is and the goal is 699 00:29:57,130 --> 00:29:58,733 to make this an efficient system. 700 00:29:58,735 --> 00:30:01,352 You put automation in the hands of everyone. 701 00:30:01,354 --> 00:30:03,324 In the near future, we're going to see systems 702 00:30:03,326 --> 00:30:05,457 where we can 3D print our clothing, 703 00:30:05,459 --> 00:30:06,973 we can 3D print food. 704 00:30:06,975 --> 00:30:09,446 If you automate these self-replicating 705 00:30:09,448 --> 00:30:12,550 industrial machines to pull the raw materials 706 00:30:12,552 --> 00:30:14,386 and distribute those raw materials 707 00:30:14,388 --> 00:30:16,582 to everyone who has the capacity 708 00:30:16,584 --> 00:30:18,514 to 3D print their own house 709 00:30:18,516 --> 00:30:21,093 or 3D print their own farm bot, 710 00:30:21,095 --> 00:30:25,282 you have literally solved the equation 711 00:30:25,284 --> 00:30:27,693 of how do I automate my life 712 00:30:27,695 --> 00:30:30,125 and how do I automate my basic necessities? 713 00:30:30,127 --> 00:30:32,013 If we had the political will 714 00:30:32,015 --> 00:30:33,733 to take all these new technologies 715 00:30:33,735 --> 00:30:36,173 and the wealth and abundance they create, 716 00:30:36,175 --> 00:30:39,013 and distribute these across our society 717 00:30:39,015 --> 00:30:40,373 in the First World countries 718 00:30:40,375 --> 00:30:41,813 and also across the whole world, 719 00:30:41,815 --> 00:30:43,853 then, of course, I mean, the sky's the limit. 720 00:30:43,855 --> 00:30:45,563 We can solve all kinds of problems. 721 00:30:45,565 --> 00:30:48,282 But we will have to have the political will to do that, 722 00:30:48,284 --> 00:30:50,674 and I don't see a whole lot of evidence for it right now. 723 00:30:50,676 --> 00:30:53,669 There really is enough already for everybody, 724 00:30:53,932 --> 00:30:55,886 certainly to have an adequate life, 725 00:30:55,888 --> 00:30:59,615 if not a life of superabundant, 726 00:30:59,666 --> 00:31:02,636 so, you know, I don't think that the introduction 727 00:31:02,638 --> 00:31:04,516 of more labor-saving devices 728 00:31:04,518 --> 00:31:07,941 or more is really gonna make any difference in that. 729 00:31:07,943 --> 00:31:09,331 The reason there are poor people 730 00:31:09,333 --> 00:31:10,912 is 'cause there's rich people. 731 00:31:11,248 --> 00:31:15,865 [music] 732 00:31:17,119 --> 00:31:19,519 You're simultaneously making a lot of people 733 00:31:19,521 --> 00:31:21,314 almost completely useless 734 00:31:21,316 --> 00:31:23,956 while generating a lot more wealth 735 00:31:23,958 --> 00:31:26,057 and value than ever before. 736 00:31:26,059 --> 00:31:28,413 So I worry about this. I worry about the schism 737 00:31:28,415 --> 00:31:31,242 between the super rich and the poor. 738 00:31:31,244 --> 00:31:34,688 The ultra rich, if they're representative 739 00:31:34,690 --> 00:31:36,800 of some of the people we've seen in Silicon Valley, 740 00:31:36,802 --> 00:31:38,013 I really, really worry 741 00:31:38,015 --> 00:31:39,922 because I wonder if they really have a soul. 742 00:31:39,924 --> 00:31:43,352 I really... I wonder if they really have an awareness 743 00:31:43,354 --> 00:31:45,566 of how regular people feel 744 00:31:45,568 --> 00:31:47,711 and if they share the values of humanity. 745 00:31:47,713 --> 00:31:50,242 It really bothers me that you have this ultra rich 746 00:31:50,244 --> 00:31:53,250 that is out of touch with regular people, with humanity. 747 00:31:53,252 --> 00:31:55,375 This is being filmed right now in San Francisco, 748 00:31:55,377 --> 00:31:58,514 which is by all accounts one of the wealthiest cities 749 00:31:58,516 --> 00:32:00,613 and most advanced cities in the world, 750 00:32:00,615 --> 00:32:02,314 and it's pretty much ground zero 751 00:32:02,316 --> 00:32:04,662 for this technological revolution, 752 00:32:04,690 --> 00:32:06,053 and, yet, as I came here, 753 00:32:06,055 --> 00:32:08,847 I almost tripped over homeless people 754 00:32:08,849 --> 00:32:10,213 sleeping on the sidewalk. 755 00:32:10,215 --> 00:32:13,066 That is the reality of today's economy 756 00:32:13,068 --> 00:32:14,277 and today's society. 757 00:32:14,279 --> 00:32:15,613 In a very real sense, 758 00:32:15,615 --> 00:32:18,794 we already live in the economy of abundance, 759 00:32:18,796 --> 00:32:21,335 and yet we have not solved this problem. 760 00:32:21,337 --> 00:32:23,774 I think the future for the four billion 761 00:32:23,776 --> 00:32:26,532 poor people in the world is actually a very good one. 762 00:32:26,534 --> 00:32:29,072 We've seen the amount of food in the world, for example, 763 00:32:29,074 --> 00:32:31,425 has more than doubled in the last 25 years. 764 00:32:31,427 --> 00:32:33,177 That's likely to continue. 765 00:32:33,455 --> 00:32:37,344 Worldwide, we're seeing massive economic growth. 766 00:32:37,346 --> 00:32:40,722 That really means that people in poor countries today 767 00:32:40,724 --> 00:32:42,874 will be much better off in the future, 768 00:32:42,876 --> 00:32:45,144 so there will still be some poor people, 769 00:32:45,146 --> 00:32:46,234 relatively speaking, 770 00:32:46,236 --> 00:32:48,354 but compared to today's poor people, 771 00:32:48,356 --> 00:32:49,977 they'll be actually quite well-off. 772 00:32:49,979 --> 00:32:52,930 I think this is an amplifier for inequality. 773 00:32:52,932 --> 00:32:56,524 It's gonna make what we see now much more amplified. 774 00:32:56,526 --> 00:32:58,066 The number of people that are doing 775 00:32:58,068 --> 00:32:59,413 really well in the economy 776 00:32:59,415 --> 00:33:01,573 I think is likely to continue to shrink. 777 00:33:01,575 --> 00:33:02,836 Those people that are doing well 778 00:33:02,838 --> 00:33:07,086 will do extraordinarily well, but for more and more people, 779 00:33:07,088 --> 00:33:08,532 they're simply gonna find themselves 780 00:33:08,534 --> 00:33:10,852 in a position where they don't have a lot to offer. 781 00:33:10,854 --> 00:33:12,367 They don't have a marketable skill. 782 00:33:12,369 --> 00:33:15,594 They don't have a viable way to really earn an income 783 00:33:15,596 --> 00:33:17,422 or, in particular, middle-class income. 784 00:33:17,424 --> 00:33:18,696 We should value the fact 785 00:33:18,698 --> 00:33:20,992 that we can spend more time doing human work 786 00:33:20,994 --> 00:33:24,533 and the robots will get on, increase the economy. 787 00:33:24,535 --> 00:33:26,674 They'll be still taking all the resources 788 00:33:26,676 --> 00:33:28,789 and converting them into material goods 789 00:33:28,791 --> 00:33:31,956 at very low cost, so the economy will expand, 790 00:33:31,958 --> 00:33:33,074 we'll be better off, 791 00:33:33,076 --> 00:33:34,754 and we can concentrate on what matters. 792 00:33:34,756 --> 00:33:36,485 There's nothing to worry about in there. 793 00:33:36,856 --> 00:33:38,875 A constant stream of savings dollars 794 00:33:38,877 --> 00:33:42,310 must flow into big and small business each year. 795 00:33:42,672 --> 00:33:45,226 These dollars help to buy the land, 796 00:33:45,228 --> 00:33:49,750 the buildings, the tools and equipment, 797 00:33:49,752 --> 00:33:51,683 and create new job opportunities 798 00:33:51,685 --> 00:33:53,685 for our expanding population. 799 00:33:53,877 --> 00:33:57,037 [music] 800 00:33:57,096 --> 00:33:58,653 We need consumers out there. 801 00:33:58,655 --> 00:34:01,253 We need people who can actually buy 802 00:34:01,255 --> 00:34:03,733 the things that are produced by the economy. 803 00:34:03,735 --> 00:34:05,533 If you look at the way our economy works, 804 00:34:05,535 --> 00:34:08,203 ultimately, it's driven by end consumption, 805 00:34:08,205 --> 00:34:10,891 and by that, I mean people and to a limited extent, 806 00:34:10,893 --> 00:34:13,066 governments, who buy things because they want them 807 00:34:13,068 --> 00:34:14,268 or they need them. 808 00:34:14,575 --> 00:34:16,173 You know, businesses in our economy, 809 00:34:16,175 --> 00:34:17,773 they also buy things, of course, 810 00:34:17,775 --> 00:34:20,133 but they do that in order to produce something else, 811 00:34:20,135 --> 00:34:21,973 and one business may sell to another business, 812 00:34:21,975 --> 00:34:24,578 but at the end of that, at the end of that chain, 813 00:34:24,580 --> 00:34:27,653 there has to stand a consumer or perhaps a government 814 00:34:27,655 --> 00:34:29,907 who buys that product or service 815 00:34:29,909 --> 00:34:31,792 just because they want it or they need it. 816 00:34:31,794 --> 00:34:33,253 So this is not the case 817 00:34:33,255 --> 00:34:35,093 that things can just keep going like this 818 00:34:35,095 --> 00:34:37,853 and get more and more unequal over time 819 00:34:37,855 --> 00:34:39,613 and everything will still be fine. 820 00:34:39,615 --> 00:34:40,733 I think that it won't be fine. 821 00:34:40,735 --> 00:34:43,738 It will actually have an impact on our economy 822 00:34:43,740 --> 00:34:45,646 and on our economic growth. 823 00:34:45,893 --> 00:34:49,407 We need intelligent planning because, you know, 824 00:34:49,409 --> 00:34:52,314 being unemployed is not a positive thing in itself. 825 00:34:52,316 --> 00:34:53,875 There has to be some kind of transition point 826 00:34:53,877 --> 00:34:55,730 to some other form of life after that. 827 00:34:55,732 --> 00:34:57,227 And again, at the moment, 828 00:34:57,229 --> 00:34:59,750 I really don't see enough attention being paid to this, 829 00:34:59,752 --> 00:35:03,232 so we need to take this future prospect seriously now. 830 00:35:05,010 --> 00:35:08,086 If we manage to adapt to this expected wave 831 00:35:08,088 --> 00:35:12,174 of technological unemployment both politically and socially, 832 00:35:12,176 --> 00:35:14,355 it's likely to facilitate a time 833 00:35:14,357 --> 00:35:16,837 when work takes on a different meaning 834 00:35:16,839 --> 00:35:19,310 and a new role in our lives. 835 00:35:20,323 --> 00:35:23,034 Ideas of how we should approach our relationship 836 00:35:23,036 --> 00:35:25,896 with work have changed throughout history. 837 00:35:26,495 --> 00:35:29,133 In ancient Greece, Aristotle said, 838 00:35:29,135 --> 00:35:33,513 "A working paid job absorbs and degrades the mind", 839 00:35:34,135 --> 00:35:36,683 i.e., if a person would not willingly adopt 840 00:35:36,685 --> 00:35:38,293 their job for free, 841 00:35:38,295 --> 00:35:40,495 the argument can be made that they have become 842 00:35:40,497 --> 00:35:42,742 absorbed and degraded by it, 843 00:35:42,744 --> 00:35:45,904 working purely out of financial obligation. 844 00:35:46,455 --> 00:35:49,930 In 1844, Karl Marx famously described 845 00:35:49,932 --> 00:35:53,745 the workers of society as "alienated from their work 846 00:35:53,747 --> 00:35:56,615 and wholly saturated by it." 847 00:35:57,455 --> 00:35:59,413 He felt that most work didn't allow 848 00:35:59,415 --> 00:36:01,810 an individual's character to grow. 849 00:36:01,855 --> 00:36:04,183 He encouraged people to find fulfillment 850 00:36:04,185 --> 00:36:06,052 and freedom in their work. 851 00:36:06,495 --> 00:36:09,652 During World War Two, the ethos towards work 852 00:36:09,654 --> 00:36:11,853 was that it was a patriotic duty 853 00:36:11,855 --> 00:36:14,591 in order to support the war effort. 854 00:36:14,940 --> 00:36:18,314 To best understand our current relationship with work 855 00:36:18,316 --> 00:36:21,266 and perhaps by extension modern life itself, 856 00:36:21,268 --> 00:36:25,185 we can look to the writings of a man called Guy Debord. 857 00:36:25,502 --> 00:36:30,413 Debord was a French Marxist theorist and in 1967, 858 00:36:30,415 --> 00:36:33,488 he published a powerful and influential critique 859 00:36:33,490 --> 00:36:36,823 on Western society entitled 860 00:36:36,825 --> 00:36:39,716 The Society of the Spectacle. 861 00:36:40,346 --> 00:36:43,448 He describes our workers are ruled by commodities 862 00:36:43,450 --> 00:36:44,672 and that production 863 00:36:44,674 --> 00:36:47,669 is an inescapable duty of the masses, 864 00:36:47,682 --> 00:36:49,925 such is the economic system 865 00:36:49,927 --> 00:36:52,841 that to work is to survive. 866 00:36:52,976 --> 00:36:55,305 "The capitalist economy," he says, 867 00:36:55,307 --> 00:36:59,152 "requires the vast majority to take part as wage workers 868 00:36:59,154 --> 00:37:02,278 in the unending pursuit of its ends. 869 00:37:02,280 --> 00:37:05,116 A requirement to which, as everyone knows, 870 00:37:05,118 --> 00:37:07,662 one must either submit or die." 871 00:37:08,175 --> 00:37:10,394 The assumption has crept into our rhetoric 872 00:37:10,396 --> 00:37:11,761 and our understanding that we live in 873 00:37:11,763 --> 00:37:13,800 a leisure society to some extent. 874 00:37:13,802 --> 00:37:16,091 We have flexible working time. 875 00:37:16,471 --> 00:37:19,394 You hear the term a lot "relative poverty" 876 00:37:19,396 --> 00:37:21,071 it's, again, it's absolute poverty, 877 00:37:21,073 --> 00:37:24,093 and all these kinds of ideas suggest that, in fact, 878 00:37:24,095 --> 00:37:26,173 we should feel pretty pleased with ourselves. 879 00:37:26,175 --> 00:37:28,154 We should both feel quite leisured 880 00:37:28,156 --> 00:37:30,295 and we should feel less in bondage to work 881 00:37:30,297 --> 00:37:32,571 than perhaps somebody in the 19th century 882 00:37:32,573 --> 00:37:35,474 who was kind of shackled to a machine in a factory. 883 00:37:35,476 --> 00:37:38,263 But, in fact, we're very unhappy. 884 00:37:38,687 --> 00:37:41,175 It's irrelevant how much you work 885 00:37:41,177 --> 00:37:42,925 in actual terms anymore. 886 00:37:42,927 --> 00:37:44,773 The way in which the spectacle operates 887 00:37:44,775 --> 00:37:49,016 is to make of leisure itself an adjunct to work. 888 00:37:49,018 --> 00:37:52,093 In other words, the idea of not working and working 889 00:37:52,095 --> 00:37:55,154 are in some sense locked into an unholy 890 00:37:55,156 --> 00:37:57,775 and reciprocal relationship with each other. 891 00:37:57,777 --> 00:37:59,676 You know, the fact that you're not working 892 00:37:59,678 --> 00:38:01,337 is only because you've been working, 893 00:38:01,339 --> 00:38:02,571 and the fact that you're working 894 00:38:02,573 --> 00:38:04,573 is only so that you cannot work. 895 00:38:04,575 --> 00:38:07,878 In other words, so engrafted is that rubric 896 00:38:07,880 --> 00:38:09,344 in the way that we approach life 897 00:38:09,346 --> 00:38:11,860 that... that we can never be rid of it. 898 00:38:11,862 --> 00:38:15,370 Debord also observed that as technology advances, 899 00:38:15,372 --> 00:38:17,586 production becomes more efficient. 900 00:38:17,588 --> 00:38:21,167 Accordingly, the workers' tasks invariably become 901 00:38:21,169 --> 00:38:23,318 more trivial and menial. 902 00:38:23,721 --> 00:38:27,066 It would seem that as human labor becomes irrelevant, 903 00:38:27,068 --> 00:38:30,404 the harder it is to find fulfilling work. 904 00:38:30,565 --> 00:38:33,594 The truth of the matter is that most people already, 905 00:38:33,596 --> 00:38:36,623 in Britain, are doing useless jobs 906 00:38:36,674 --> 00:38:39,740 and have been for generations, actually. 907 00:38:39,751 --> 00:38:42,333 Most jobs in management are completely useless. 908 00:38:42,335 --> 00:38:44,693 They basically consist in the rearrangement 909 00:38:44,695 --> 00:38:46,493 of information into different patterns 910 00:38:46,495 --> 00:38:48,909 that are meant to take on the semblance of meaning 911 00:38:48,911 --> 00:38:51,005 in the bureaucratic context. 912 00:38:51,049 --> 00:38:54,893 So most work is, in fact, a waste of time already, 913 00:38:54,895 --> 00:38:57,461 and I think people understand that intuitively. 914 00:38:57,463 --> 00:39:00,394 When I go into companies, I often ask the question, 915 00:39:00,396 --> 00:39:01,667 "Why are you employing people? 916 00:39:01,669 --> 00:39:03,027 You could get monkeys 917 00:39:03,029 --> 00:39:05,367 or you could get robots to do this job." 918 00:39:05,369 --> 00:39:06,839 The people are not allowed to think. 919 00:39:06,841 --> 00:39:08,396 They are processing. 920 00:39:08,398 --> 00:39:10,573 They're just like a machine. 921 00:39:10,575 --> 00:39:13,533 They're being so hemmed down, 922 00:39:13,535 --> 00:39:17,443 they operate with an algorithm and they just do it. 923 00:39:17,541 --> 00:39:20,874 We all have the need to find meaning in our lives, 924 00:39:20,876 --> 00:39:24,123 and it is our professions that define us. 925 00:39:24,210 --> 00:39:26,471 To work is to provide a service 926 00:39:26,473 --> 00:39:28,414 either to yourself or for others, 927 00:39:28,416 --> 00:39:31,230 but most of us would like our work to be purposeful 928 00:39:31,232 --> 00:39:34,513 and contributory to society in some way. 929 00:39:34,869 --> 00:39:37,053 It is an uncomfortable truth 930 00:39:37,055 --> 00:39:39,875 that with our present model of economics 931 00:39:39,877 --> 00:39:43,474 not everyone is able to monetize their passions. 932 00:39:43,895 --> 00:39:46,834 If any of this were to come to fruition, 933 00:39:46,836 --> 00:39:49,961 if we learned to make automation work for us, 934 00:39:49,963 --> 00:39:54,552 the question remains, "What do we do with our days?" 935 00:39:54,830 --> 00:39:56,314 There's a good and a bad. 936 00:39:56,316 --> 00:39:58,956 The good is that the cost of everything drops. 937 00:39:59,018 --> 00:40:01,589 We can solve some of the basic problems of humanity 938 00:40:01,591 --> 00:40:04,435 like disease, hunger, lodging. 939 00:40:05,237 --> 00:40:09,227 We can look after all the basic needs of human beings. 940 00:40:09,229 --> 00:40:13,575 The dark side is that automation takes jobs away, 941 00:40:13,627 --> 00:40:16,091 and the question is, "What do we do for a living?" 942 00:40:16,449 --> 00:40:19,235 Some of us will seek enlightenment 943 00:40:19,237 --> 00:40:21,539 and rise and will keep learning and growing, 944 00:40:21,541 --> 00:40:23,774 but the majority of people don't care about those things. 945 00:40:23,776 --> 00:40:27,141 Majority of people just want to do, you know, grunt work. 946 00:40:27,143 --> 00:40:30,485 They want to socialize with people as they do at work. 947 00:40:30,487 --> 00:40:34,050 Sennett wrote in his book, The Corrosion of Character, 948 00:40:34,052 --> 00:40:36,792 that in late capitalism, 949 00:40:36,794 --> 00:40:39,754 one of the great kind of supports 950 00:40:39,756 --> 00:40:43,394 for human interaction and for human meaning 951 00:40:43,396 --> 00:40:45,894 is the longevity of social relations 952 00:40:45,896 --> 00:40:48,617 and the interactions in working environments 953 00:40:48,619 --> 00:40:50,828 and that if that's taken away, 954 00:40:50,830 --> 00:40:54,347 if what's required is to be continually responsive 955 00:40:54,349 --> 00:40:57,560 and changing in a precarious world, 956 00:40:58,135 --> 00:41:01,493 then people no longer find the fulfillment 957 00:41:01,495 --> 00:41:04,000 or the substance in what they're doing. 958 00:41:04,002 --> 00:41:07,667 There is an underlying desire for people to do things, 959 00:41:07,669 --> 00:41:09,013 you know, you spoke about the idea 960 00:41:09,015 --> 00:41:11,469 that people want to be engaged creatively. 961 00:41:11,471 --> 00:41:12,893 They want to be engaged, you know, 962 00:41:12,895 --> 00:41:16,058 go back to basic Marxist ideas of praxis 963 00:41:16,060 --> 00:41:17,533 and right back to John Locke. 964 00:41:17,535 --> 00:41:19,503 They want to be engaged in what Locke thought of 965 00:41:19,505 --> 00:41:21,175 as primary acquisition, 966 00:41:21,205 --> 00:41:24,027 mixing their labor, either their creative thinking 967 00:41:24,029 --> 00:41:25,305 or their physical labor even, 968 00:41:25,307 --> 00:41:27,733 with the world in order to transform it. 969 00:41:27,735 --> 00:41:30,034 They want to do that, and that's a very basic 970 00:41:30,036 --> 00:41:32,266 human instinct to do that. 971 00:41:32,268 --> 00:41:35,446 And the idea of a leisured class, as it were, 972 00:41:35,448 --> 00:41:39,413 a class who is not involved in a praxis with the world, 973 00:41:39,415 --> 00:41:41,407 but is simply involved in a passive way 974 00:41:41,409 --> 00:41:45,095 as a recipient of things is actually repugnant to people. 975 00:41:45,151 --> 00:41:49,839 They would sooner work for the man in a meaningless job 976 00:41:49,841 --> 00:41:52,292 and construct a false ideology 977 00:41:52,294 --> 00:41:54,333 of involvement and engagement 978 00:41:54,335 --> 00:41:56,453 than they would actually sit on their arse. 979 00:41:56,455 --> 00:41:59,029 We can't get away from the fact that... 980 00:41:59,088 --> 00:42:00,844 that people work because they have to. 981 00:42:00,846 --> 00:42:03,753 That's, you know, the primary motivation for most people, 982 00:42:03,755 --> 00:42:05,173 that if you don't work, 983 00:42:05,175 --> 00:42:07,514 you're gonna be living on the street, okay? 984 00:42:07,516 --> 00:42:09,909 Once we... if we ever move into a future 985 00:42:09,911 --> 00:42:11,154 where that's not the case 986 00:42:11,156 --> 00:42:12,613 and people don't have to worry about that, 987 00:42:12,615 --> 00:42:13,925 then we can begin to take on 988 00:42:13,927 --> 00:42:15,727 these more philosophical questions 989 00:42:15,729 --> 00:42:19,773 of... of, you know, but we're not at that point yet. 990 00:42:19,775 --> 00:42:23,594 We can't pretend that we are living in an age 991 00:42:23,596 --> 00:42:28,084 where that necessity for an income doesn't exist. 992 00:42:28,471 --> 00:42:32,554 Douglas Rushkoff stated in 2009, 993 00:42:32,556 --> 00:42:36,255 "We all want paychecks or at least money. 994 00:42:36,257 --> 00:42:38,916 We want food, shelter, clothing, 995 00:42:38,918 --> 00:42:41,817 and all the things that money buys us. 996 00:42:41,819 --> 00:42:45,099 But do we all really want jobs?" 997 00:42:45,229 --> 00:42:49,050 According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, 998 00:42:49,052 --> 00:42:50,693 there is enough food produced 999 00:42:50,695 --> 00:42:52,114 to provide everyone in the world 1000 00:42:52,116 --> 00:42:57,505 with 2,720 kilocalories per person per day. 1001 00:43:15,197 --> 00:43:17,667 At this stage, it's difficult to think of 1002 00:43:17,669 --> 00:43:19,933 other possible ways of life. 1003 00:43:19,935 --> 00:43:22,053 The need to earn a living has been a part 1004 00:43:22,055 --> 00:43:24,533 of every cultural narrative in history. 1005 00:43:24,535 --> 00:43:27,653 It's a precondition of human life. 1006 00:43:27,655 --> 00:43:30,081 The challenge facing the future of work 1007 00:43:30,083 --> 00:43:32,786 is politically unclear. 1008 00:43:33,252 --> 00:43:35,003 It is likely to require 1009 00:43:35,005 --> 00:43:37,933 not only a redistribution of wealth, 1010 00:43:37,935 --> 00:43:41,234 but a redistribution of the workload. 1011 00:43:41,236 --> 00:43:45,505 But will working less mean living more? 1012 00:43:46,335 --> 00:43:49,498 And is our fear of becoming irrelevant 1013 00:43:49,500 --> 00:43:53,169 greater than our fear of death? 1014 00:43:56,373 --> 00:44:05,493 [music] 1015 00:44:26,174 --> 00:44:29,850 The process of physical aging is known as senescence, 1016 00:44:29,852 --> 00:44:32,216 and none of us are spared from it. 1017 00:44:32,218 --> 00:44:36,435 It remains to this day an evolutionary enigma. 1018 00:44:36,488 --> 00:44:38,609 Our cells are programmed to wane 1019 00:44:38,611 --> 00:44:41,849 and our entire bodies are fated to become frail. 1020 00:44:42,088 --> 00:44:44,862 It was seen that the laws of nature would prefer it 1021 00:44:44,864 --> 00:44:47,036 if we dwindle and die. 1022 00:44:47,120 --> 00:44:49,825 [music] 1023 00:44:50,094 --> 00:44:52,479 Negligible senescence, however, 1024 00:44:52,481 --> 00:44:55,361 is the lack of symptoms of aging. 1025 00:44:55,424 --> 00:44:59,784 Negligibly senescent organisms include certain species 1026 00:44:59,786 --> 00:45:02,335 of sturgeon, giant tortoise, 1027 00:45:02,337 --> 00:45:05,911 flatworm, clam, and tardigrade. 1028 00:45:06,975 --> 00:45:11,101 One species of jellyfish called Turritopsis dohrnii 1029 00:45:11,103 --> 00:45:14,560 has even been observed to be biologically immortal. 1030 00:45:14,728 --> 00:45:18,510 It has the capability to reverse its biotic cycle 1031 00:45:18,512 --> 00:45:20,643 and revert back to the polyp stage 1032 00:45:20,645 --> 00:45:22,889 at any point in its development. 1033 00:45:22,891 --> 00:45:25,529 There is only one thing wrong with dying, 1034 00:45:25,531 --> 00:45:27,575 and that's doing it when you don't want to. 1035 00:45:28,455 --> 00:45:30,432 Doing it when you do want to is not a problem. 1036 00:45:30,434 --> 00:45:32,221 Now if you put that bargain to anybody, 1037 00:45:32,223 --> 00:45:34,103 "Look, this is the deal: 1038 00:45:34,306 --> 00:45:36,360 You will die, but only when you want to." 1039 00:45:36,362 --> 00:45:37,833 Who would not take that bargain? 1040 00:45:38,193 --> 00:45:42,455 In 2014, a team of scientists at Harvard 1041 00:45:42,457 --> 00:45:44,979 were able to effectively reverse the age 1042 00:45:44,981 --> 00:45:47,065 of an older mouse by treating it 1043 00:45:47,067 --> 00:45:48,976 with the blood of a younger mouse 1044 00:45:48,978 --> 00:45:52,536 through a process called parabiosis. 1045 00:45:52,931 --> 00:45:54,424 For the first time in history 1046 00:45:54,426 --> 00:45:56,698 it is deemed scientifically possible 1047 00:45:56,700 --> 00:46:00,013 to gain control over the aging process. 1048 00:46:00,535 --> 00:46:06,669 [music] 1049 00:46:07,538 --> 00:46:10,143 Ultimately, when people get the hang of the idea 1050 00:46:10,145 --> 00:46:12,149 that aging is a medical problem 1051 00:46:12,151 --> 00:46:14,231 and that everybody's got it, 1052 00:46:14,484 --> 00:46:18,091 then it's not going to be the way it is today. 1053 00:46:23,142 --> 00:46:26,875 He thinks it's possible that people will extend... 1054 00:46:26,877 --> 00:46:30,218 be able to extend their lifespan by considerable amounts. 1055 00:46:30,220 --> 00:46:31,733 I think he's on record as saying 1056 00:46:31,735 --> 00:46:34,518 the first 1,000-year-old person is already alive. 1057 00:46:34,520 --> 00:46:36,814 It's highly likely, in my view, 1058 00:46:36,816 --> 00:46:39,510 that people born today or born 10 years ago 1059 00:46:39,512 --> 00:46:42,299 will actually be able to live 1060 00:46:42,301 --> 00:46:44,072 as long as they like, so to speak, 1061 00:46:44,074 --> 00:46:49,174 without any risk of death from the ill health of old age. 1062 00:46:49,176 --> 00:46:54,549 The way to apply comprehensive maintenance to aging 1063 00:46:54,551 --> 00:46:56,190 is a divide and conquer approach. 1064 00:46:56,192 --> 00:46:57,853 It is not a magic bullet. 1065 00:46:57,855 --> 00:46:59,820 It is not some single thing that we can do, 1066 00:46:59,822 --> 00:47:02,395 let alone a single thing that we could do just once. 1067 00:47:02,572 --> 00:47:05,804 Aging is the lifelong accumulation 1068 00:47:05,806 --> 00:47:07,686 of damage to the body, 1069 00:47:07,688 --> 00:47:10,614 and that damage occurs as an intrinsic, 1070 00:47:10,674 --> 00:47:12,512 unavoidable side effect 1071 00:47:12,514 --> 00:47:15,071 of the way the body normally works. 1072 00:47:15,073 --> 00:47:16,493 Even though there are many, many, 1073 00:47:16,495 --> 00:47:19,109 many different types of damage at the molecular level 1074 00:47:19,111 --> 00:47:22,773 and the cellular level, they can all be classified 1075 00:47:22,775 --> 00:47:25,127 into a very manageable number of categories, 1076 00:47:25,129 --> 00:47:26,813 just seven major categories. 1077 00:47:26,815 --> 00:47:29,585 So now the bottom line, what do we do about it? 1078 00:47:29,587 --> 00:47:32,629 How do we actually implement the maintenance approach? 1079 00:47:32,704 --> 00:47:34,658 There are four fundamental paradigms, 1080 00:47:34,660 --> 00:47:35,994 they all begin with "R." 1081 00:47:35,996 --> 00:47:38,049 They are called replacement, removal, 1082 00:47:38,051 --> 00:47:39,265 repair, and reinforcement. 1083 00:47:39,267 --> 00:47:42,053 We've got particular ways to do all these things. 1084 00:47:42,055 --> 00:47:45,179 Sometimes replacement, sometimes simply elimination 1085 00:47:45,181 --> 00:47:48,913 of the superfluous material, the garbage that's accumulated. 1086 00:47:48,915 --> 00:47:51,814 Sometimes repair of the material. 1087 00:47:51,816 --> 00:47:54,682 Occasionally, in a couple of cases, reinforcement... 1088 00:47:54,684 --> 00:47:56,893 that means making the cell robust 1089 00:47:56,895 --> 00:47:59,434 so that the damage, which would normally have caused 1090 00:47:59,436 --> 00:48:01,436 the pathology no longer does that. 1091 00:48:01,571 --> 00:48:04,268 I wanna talk about one thing that we're doing in our lab, 1092 00:48:04,270 --> 00:48:06,804 which involved the number one cause of death 1093 00:48:06,806 --> 00:48:08,971 in the western world, cardiovascular disease 1094 00:48:08,973 --> 00:48:10,493 causes heart attacks and strokes. 1095 00:48:10,495 --> 00:48:13,175 It all begins with these things called foam cells, 1096 00:48:13,177 --> 00:48:16,007 which are originally white blood cells. 1097 00:48:16,009 --> 00:48:19,453 They become poisoned by toxins in the bloodstream. 1098 00:48:19,455 --> 00:48:22,374 The main toxin that's responsible is known... 1099 00:48:22,376 --> 00:48:25,053 it's called 7-ketocholesterol, that's this thing, 1100 00:48:25,055 --> 00:48:27,944 and we found some bacteria that could eat it. 1101 00:48:27,946 --> 00:48:30,155 We then found out how they eat it, 1102 00:48:30,157 --> 00:48:33,013 we found out the enzymes that they use to break it down, 1103 00:48:33,015 --> 00:48:35,453 and we found out how to modify those enzymes 1104 00:48:35,455 --> 00:48:37,679 so that they can go into human cells, 1105 00:48:37,681 --> 00:48:40,705 go to the right place in the cell that they're needed, 1106 00:48:40,707 --> 00:48:42,249 which is called the lysosome, 1107 00:48:42,251 --> 00:48:46,366 and actually do their job there, and it actually works. 1108 00:48:46,368 --> 00:48:49,674 Cells are protected from this toxic substance... 1109 00:48:49,676 --> 00:48:51,389 that's what these graphs are showing. 1110 00:48:51,391 --> 00:48:53,270 So this is pretty good news. 1111 00:48:53,501 --> 00:48:56,241 The damage that accumulates that eventually causes 1112 00:48:56,243 --> 00:48:59,046 the diseases and disabilities of old age 1113 00:48:59,048 --> 00:49:01,415 is initially harmless. 1114 00:49:01,462 --> 00:49:04,614 The body is set up to tolerate a certain amount of it. 1115 00:49:04,657 --> 00:49:07,221 That's critical, because while we damage it 1116 00:49:07,223 --> 00:49:09,783 at that sub-pathological level, 1117 00:49:09,832 --> 00:49:11,869 it means that it's not participating 1118 00:49:11,871 --> 00:49:13,444 in metabolism, so to speak. 1119 00:49:13,446 --> 00:49:16,692 It's not actually interacting with the way the body works. 1120 00:49:16,860 --> 00:49:19,182 So medicines that target that damage 1121 00:49:19,184 --> 00:49:21,650 are much, much less likely 1122 00:49:21,652 --> 00:49:24,295 to have unacceptable side effects 1123 00:49:24,297 --> 00:49:27,253 than medicines that try to manipulate the body 1124 00:49:27,255 --> 00:49:28,955 so as to stop the damage from being created 1125 00:49:28,957 --> 00:49:30,410 in the first place. 1126 00:49:37,845 --> 00:49:43,504 It's unlikely, in fact, by working on longevity per se, 1127 00:49:43,556 --> 00:49:45,413 that we will crack it. 1128 00:49:45,415 --> 00:49:48,374 It's going to be... it seems to me more probable 1129 00:49:48,376 --> 00:49:52,460 that we will crack longevity simply by getting rid of, 1130 00:49:52,462 --> 00:49:56,013 sequentially, the prime causes of death. 1131 00:49:56,015 --> 00:50:00,986 I hear people talk about living hundreds of years. 1132 00:50:00,988 --> 00:50:02,413 Inside, I'm like, yeah, right, 1133 00:50:02,415 --> 00:50:05,018 I mean, because if you study the brain, 1134 00:50:05,020 --> 00:50:07,080 the dead end is the brain. 1135 00:50:07,082 --> 00:50:08,594 We all start developing 1136 00:50:08,596 --> 00:50:10,413 Alzheimer's pathology at 40 years old. 1137 00:50:10,415 --> 00:50:12,893 It's not a matter of whether you get Alzheimer's, 1138 00:50:12,895 --> 00:50:14,395 it's when. 1139 00:50:14,728 --> 00:50:19,666 It's when, and genetically, 1140 00:50:19,668 --> 00:50:21,687 we all have some predisposition 1141 00:50:21,689 --> 00:50:23,840 to when we're gonna get this disease. 1142 00:50:23,860 --> 00:50:25,520 It's part of the program. 1143 00:50:25,522 --> 00:50:27,723 Let's fix that part of the program 1144 00:50:27,741 --> 00:50:29,932 so we can live past 90 years old 1145 00:50:29,934 --> 00:50:32,373 with an intact, working brain 1146 00:50:32,375 --> 00:50:34,848 to continue the evolution of our mind. 1147 00:50:35,564 --> 00:50:40,693 That is number one in my book, because here's a fact: 1148 00:50:40,695 --> 00:50:43,093 Life span's almost 80 right now on average. 1149 00:50:43,095 --> 00:50:46,731 By 85, half of people will have Alzheimer's. 1150 00:50:46,840 --> 00:50:48,280 Do the math. 1151 00:50:48,431 --> 00:50:49,893 Seventy-four million Baby Boomers 1152 00:50:49,895 --> 00:50:51,185 headed toward risk age. 1153 00:50:51,187 --> 00:50:53,838 Eighty-five, 50 percent have Alzheimer's, 1154 00:50:53,840 --> 00:50:55,304 current life span's 80. 1155 00:50:55,306 --> 00:50:56,733 They're gonna be 85 pretty soon. 1156 00:50:56,735 --> 00:50:59,890 Half our population at 85's gonna have this disease. 1157 00:50:59,892 --> 00:51:01,682 And then keep going up to 90 and 100, 1158 00:51:01,684 --> 00:51:03,023 and it gets even worse. 1159 00:51:03,025 --> 00:51:05,025 This is enemy number one. 1160 00:51:05,029 --> 00:51:08,660 It's interesting, just this week 1161 00:51:09,084 --> 00:51:12,184 it was discovered that an Egyptian mummy 1162 00:51:12,632 --> 00:51:15,635 had died of cancer, so even way back in those times, 1163 00:51:15,637 --> 00:51:16,549 cancer was around. 1164 00:51:16,551 --> 00:51:19,832 What seems to have happened is, as we have lived longer, 1165 00:51:19,834 --> 00:51:23,002 the number of diseases that pop up to kill us 1166 00:51:23,004 --> 00:51:25,335 starts to increase, and the reality is 1167 00:51:25,337 --> 00:51:28,253 I think this is a sort of whack-a-mole situation 1168 00:51:28,255 --> 00:51:32,104 as we beat cancer to death and it disappears, 1169 00:51:32,106 --> 00:51:33,338 something else will pop up. 1170 00:51:33,340 --> 00:51:35,127 Cancer is a specific disease, 1171 00:51:35,129 --> 00:51:37,252 and every cancer is a specific gene involved 1172 00:51:37,254 --> 00:51:38,693 together with lifestyle. 1173 00:51:38,695 --> 00:51:41,840 Alzheimer's, specific disease, specific genetics. 1174 00:51:42,204 --> 00:51:44,918 I can go on and on... diabetes, heart disease. 1175 00:51:45,287 --> 00:51:49,223 These are diseases, and as you get older, 1176 00:51:49,274 --> 00:51:52,564 your susceptibility to these diseases increases, 1177 00:51:52,566 --> 00:51:54,394 and your genetics will determine 1178 00:51:54,396 --> 00:51:57,025 whether you get them and when you get them 1179 00:51:57,027 --> 00:51:58,288 given your lifespan. 1180 00:51:58,290 --> 00:51:59,549 That's not aging, 1181 00:51:59,551 --> 00:52:02,013 that's just living long enough to be susceptible, 1182 00:52:02,015 --> 00:52:06,153 so we may very well eradicate, in our fantasy world, 1183 00:52:06,215 --> 00:52:09,280 all the cancers and strokes and heart disease 1184 00:52:09,282 --> 00:52:11,893 and diabetes and Alzheimer's we get right now 1185 00:52:11,895 --> 00:52:15,179 by 80 or 90 years old, and then what's gonna happen? 1186 00:52:15,181 --> 00:52:18,273 You live out to 110, and guess what's gonna happen, 1187 00:52:18,275 --> 00:52:20,154 new, other genetic variants 1188 00:52:20,156 --> 00:52:22,093 suddenly rear their ugly heads and say, 1189 00:52:22,095 --> 00:52:24,634 "Now we're gonna affect whether you live to 110 1190 00:52:24,636 --> 00:52:26,510 without Alzheimer's and heart disease 1191 00:52:26,512 --> 00:52:27,830 and cancer and diabetes." 1192 00:52:27,832 --> 00:52:30,106 And it'll go on and go on and go on. 1193 00:52:31,375 --> 00:52:33,733 There will undoubtedly be enormous challenges 1194 00:52:33,735 --> 00:52:37,356 concerning the biological approach to longevity. 1195 00:52:37,657 --> 00:52:40,736 There could, however, be an alternative route 1196 00:52:40,738 --> 00:52:43,270 to extreme longevity. 1197 00:52:43,892 --> 00:52:45,705 When people are worried about death, 1198 00:52:45,707 --> 00:52:47,133 I guess the issue is what is it 1199 00:52:47,135 --> 00:52:50,371 that they would like to have stay alive, okay? 1200 00:52:50,720 --> 00:52:54,173 And I think that's often very unclear what the answer is, 1201 00:52:54,175 --> 00:52:57,205 because if you look at somebody like Ray Kurzweil, for example, 1202 00:52:57,207 --> 00:52:59,013 with his promises of the singularity 1203 00:52:59,015 --> 00:53:00,893 and our merging with machine intelligence 1204 00:53:00,895 --> 00:53:02,471 and then being able to kind of have 1205 00:53:02,473 --> 00:53:03,986 this kind of infinite consciousness 1206 00:53:03,988 --> 00:53:06,160 projected outward into the Cosmos. 1207 00:53:06,806 --> 00:53:08,564 I don't think he's imaging a human body 1208 00:53:08,566 --> 00:53:10,646 living forever, okay? 1209 00:53:11,181 --> 00:53:14,616 And if that's what we're talking about is immortality, 1210 00:53:14,618 --> 00:53:16,773 what I kind of think Kurzweil is talking about, 1211 00:53:16,775 --> 00:53:18,173 then I can see it. 1212 00:53:18,175 --> 00:53:21,754 I mean, I could see at least as something to work toward. 1213 00:53:21,829 --> 00:53:25,885 In 2005, Google's Director of Engineering, 1214 00:53:25,887 --> 00:53:28,299 Ray Kurzweil, published a book 1215 00:53:28,301 --> 00:53:31,000 entitled The Singularity is Near: 1216 00:53:31,002 --> 00:53:34,163 When Humans Transcend Biology. 1217 00:53:34,165 --> 00:53:37,413 He predicts that by 2045, 1218 00:53:37,415 --> 00:53:39,689 it'll be possible to upload our minds 1219 00:53:39,691 --> 00:53:42,822 into a computer, effectively allowing us 1220 00:53:42,824 --> 00:53:45,059 to live indefinitely. 1221 00:53:58,924 --> 00:54:01,484 When people think of death at this point, 1222 00:54:01,495 --> 00:54:03,634 they think of a body going into a coffin, 1223 00:54:03,636 --> 00:54:05,645 and the coffin going into the ground. 1224 00:54:05,762 --> 00:54:09,637 When in fact that age of death is dying. 1225 00:54:09,829 --> 00:54:12,549 We are ending that stage. 1226 00:54:12,551 --> 00:54:14,133 We're entering a new stage 1227 00:54:14,135 --> 00:54:16,611 where we could possibly upload consciousness 1228 00:54:16,613 --> 00:54:18,072 into a silicone substrate. 1229 00:54:18,074 --> 00:54:20,189 You know, a lot of these science fiction ideas 1230 00:54:20,191 --> 00:54:22,937 from decades ago are becoming real 1231 00:54:22,939 --> 00:54:25,424 and already people are spending millions of pounds 1232 00:54:25,426 --> 00:54:28,015 research today on making this happen. 1233 00:54:28,017 --> 00:54:30,929 Nobody expects to do it before 2040 at the earliest. 1234 00:54:30,931 --> 00:54:34,304 My guess is 2050, it'll be a few rich people 1235 00:54:34,306 --> 00:54:37,241 and a few kings and queens here and there and politicians. 1236 00:54:37,243 --> 00:54:40,693 By 2060-2070, it's reasonably well-off people. 1237 00:54:40,695 --> 00:54:44,233 By 2075, pretty much anybody could be immortal. 1238 00:54:44,235 --> 00:54:46,634 I'm not convinced that uploading my consciousness 1239 00:54:46,636 --> 00:54:49,611 onto a computer is a form of immortality. 1240 00:54:49,613 --> 00:54:51,827 I would like to live forever, 1241 00:54:51,829 --> 00:54:54,314 but I'm not sure that I would like to live forever 1242 00:54:54,316 --> 00:54:59,813 as some digibytes of memory in a computer. 1243 00:54:59,815 --> 00:55:01,416 I wouldn't call that living forever. 1244 00:55:01,418 --> 00:55:03,093 The things I wanna do with my body 1245 00:55:03,095 --> 00:55:05,813 that I won't be able to do in that computer. 1246 00:55:05,815 --> 00:55:08,030 Immortality is a question that keeps arising 1247 00:55:08,032 --> 00:55:11,096 in the technology community, and it's one which I think 1248 00:55:11,098 --> 00:55:14,424 is entirely feasible in principle. 1249 00:55:14,426 --> 00:55:16,015 We won't actually become immortal, 1250 00:55:16,017 --> 00:55:19,385 but what we will do is we will get the technology 1251 00:55:19,387 --> 00:55:23,874 by around about 2050 to connect a human brain 1252 00:55:23,876 --> 00:55:27,634 to the machine world so well that most of your thinking 1253 00:55:27,636 --> 00:55:29,674 is happening inside the computer world, 1254 00:55:29,676 --> 00:55:31,033 inside the I.T., 1255 00:55:31,035 --> 00:55:33,015 so your brain is still being used, 1256 00:55:33,017 --> 00:55:35,914 but 99 percent of your thoughts, 99 percent of your memories 1257 00:55:35,916 --> 00:55:37,627 are actually out there in the cloud 1258 00:55:37,629 --> 00:55:39,166 or whatever you wanna call it, 1259 00:55:39,168 --> 00:55:41,119 and only one percent is inside your head. 1260 00:55:41,121 --> 00:55:42,679 So walk into work this morning, 1261 00:55:42,681 --> 00:55:45,200 you get hit by a bus, it doesn't matter. 1262 00:55:45,392 --> 00:55:48,928 You just upload you mind into an android 1263 00:55:48,930 --> 00:55:51,181 on Monday morning and carry on as if nothing had happened. 1264 00:55:51,183 --> 00:55:53,079 The question with that kind of technology 1265 00:55:53,081 --> 00:55:57,100 and the extension of human capacity 1266 00:55:57,102 --> 00:56:02,202 and human life through technology 1267 00:56:02,204 --> 00:56:05,118 is where does the human end, 1268 00:56:05,120 --> 00:56:06,773 and the technology begin? 1269 00:56:06,775 --> 00:56:10,194 If we upload our consciousness into a robot, 1270 00:56:10,196 --> 00:56:14,608 a humanoid robot that has touch, the ability to feel, 1271 00:56:14,610 --> 00:56:18,108 all of the sensorial inputs, if they're the same, 1272 00:56:18,110 --> 00:56:21,533 there is a potential of continuity, right? 1273 00:56:21,535 --> 00:56:25,553 So you can have the same types of experiences 1274 00:56:25,555 --> 00:56:28,189 in that new substrate that you have as a human being. 1275 00:56:28,191 --> 00:56:30,287 It's beyond a continuity issue, 1276 00:56:30,289 --> 00:56:33,790 it's an issue that you have the ability to record 1277 00:56:33,792 --> 00:56:35,902 and recall without the content... 1278 00:56:36,461 --> 00:56:38,498 the content being the sensations, images 1279 00:56:38,500 --> 00:56:40,928 and feelings and thoughts you experienced your whole life 1280 00:56:40,930 --> 00:56:42,415 that have associated with each other 1281 00:56:42,417 --> 00:56:43,658 through your neuronetwork. 1282 00:56:43,660 --> 00:56:45,074 Where are they stored? 1283 00:56:45,076 --> 00:56:48,243 I don't think consciousness and the brain 1284 00:56:48,245 --> 00:56:50,022 is anything to do with any particular 1285 00:56:50,024 --> 00:56:51,873 individual region in the brain, 1286 00:56:51,875 --> 00:56:54,248 but it's something that's all about... 1287 00:56:54,250 --> 00:56:56,633 its distributed organization. 1288 00:56:56,661 --> 00:56:58,293 I don't think there are any mysteries. 1289 00:56:58,295 --> 00:57:00,769 There are no causal mysteries in the brain, 1290 00:57:00,771 --> 00:57:04,969 and I think that there's a perfectly... 1291 00:57:05,794 --> 00:57:08,574 a comprehensible, physical chain 1292 00:57:08,576 --> 00:57:11,030 of cause and effect that goes from the things 1293 00:57:11,032 --> 00:57:13,413 that I see and hear around me 1294 00:57:13,415 --> 00:57:14,933 and the words that come out of my mouth, 1295 00:57:14,935 --> 00:57:19,522 which would encompass consciousness, I suppose. 1296 00:57:19,524 --> 00:57:20,537 But the things that... 1297 00:57:20,539 --> 00:57:22,333 the moment you say something like that, 1298 00:57:22,335 --> 00:57:26,334 you're on the edge of the philosophical precipice. 1299 00:57:26,336 --> 00:57:27,674 When you think about a machine, 1300 00:57:27,676 --> 00:57:30,352 the question is are you simulating consciousness 1301 00:57:30,441 --> 00:57:33,561 or are you simulating cognition? 1302 00:57:34,015 --> 00:57:38,573 Cognition requires inputs and reactions 1303 00:57:38,575 --> 00:57:39,853 that are associated with each other 1304 00:57:39,855 --> 00:57:42,055 to create an output and an outcome. 1305 00:57:42,240 --> 00:57:43,773 And you can program that all day 1306 00:57:43,775 --> 00:57:45,819 and you can make that as sophisticated 1307 00:57:45,821 --> 00:57:47,386 and as information-dense as you want, 1308 00:57:47,388 --> 00:57:50,532 almost to the point that it mimics a real person. 1309 00:57:51,599 --> 00:57:54,154 But the question is will it ever have the consciousness 1310 00:57:54,156 --> 00:57:56,022 that our species with our genetics, 1311 00:57:56,024 --> 00:57:58,172 with our brain has. 1312 00:57:58,215 --> 00:58:01,573 No, a machine has its own consciousness. 1313 00:58:01,575 --> 00:58:03,533 All you're doing is programming it 1314 00:58:03,535 --> 00:58:07,011 to be cognitively responsive the way you are. 1315 00:58:07,013 --> 00:58:09,173 I remember well, when my father died, 1316 00:58:09,175 --> 00:58:13,093 asking my mother, "If I could've captured 1317 00:58:13,095 --> 00:58:16,141 the very being of my father in a machine, 1318 00:58:16,185 --> 00:58:17,773 and I could put him in an android 1319 00:58:17,775 --> 00:58:20,533 that looked exactly like him, had all the mannerisms, 1320 00:58:20,535 --> 00:58:23,893 and it was warm and it smelled and it felt like him, 1321 00:58:23,895 --> 00:58:25,933 would you do it?" and she said, "Absolutely not. 1322 00:58:25,935 --> 00:58:28,550 It wouldn't be your father, it wouldn't be him." 1323 00:58:28,552 --> 00:58:30,647 I think that someday you can upload 1324 00:58:30,649 --> 00:58:32,743 your current neuronetwork... 1325 00:58:33,560 --> 00:58:35,376 but that's not you. 1326 00:58:35,528 --> 00:58:39,328 That's just your current neuro map, right? 1327 00:58:39,370 --> 00:58:43,515 [music] 1328 00:58:44,474 --> 00:58:46,634 As with any concept that proposes 1329 00:58:46,636 --> 00:58:49,488 to change the natural order of things, 1330 00:58:49,490 --> 00:58:54,672 the idea of extreme longevity can be met with disbelief. 1331 00:58:55,357 --> 00:58:57,936 But there is currently an international movement 1332 00:58:57,938 --> 00:59:00,889 called transhumanism that is concerned 1333 00:59:00,891 --> 00:59:02,773 with fundamentally transforming 1334 00:59:02,775 --> 00:59:06,170 the human condition by developing technologies 1335 00:59:06,172 --> 00:59:08,628 to greatly enhance human beings 1336 00:59:08,630 --> 00:59:13,324 in an intellectual, physical, and psychological capacity. 1337 00:59:13,326 --> 00:59:16,183 I really want to just simply live indefinitely, 1338 00:59:16,185 --> 00:59:19,053 and not have the Spectre of Death hanging over me, 1339 00:59:19,055 --> 00:59:21,272 potentially at any moment taking away 1340 00:59:21,274 --> 00:59:23,511 this thing that we call existence. 1341 00:59:23,513 --> 00:59:25,780 So for me, that's the primary goal 1342 00:59:25,782 --> 00:59:28,019 of the transhumanist movement. 1343 00:59:28,021 --> 00:59:31,133 Transhumanists believe we should use technology 1344 00:59:31,135 --> 00:59:34,766 to overcome our biological limitations. 1345 00:59:35,232 --> 00:59:36,358 What does that mean? 1346 00:59:36,360 --> 00:59:40,613 Well, very simplistically, perhaps, 1347 00:59:40,615 --> 00:59:43,514 I think we should be aiming for what one might call 1348 00:59:43,516 --> 00:59:45,634 a triple S civilization 1349 00:59:45,636 --> 00:59:49,647 of super intelligence, super longevity, 1350 00:59:49,649 --> 00:59:51,081 and super happiness. 1351 00:59:51,083 --> 00:59:53,714 We have been evolving through hundreds and hundreds 1352 00:59:53,716 --> 00:59:55,865 of thousands of years, human beings, 1353 00:59:55,867 --> 00:59:58,339 and transhumanism is the climax of that. 1354 00:59:58,341 --> 01:00:01,120 It's the result of how we're going to get 1355 01:00:01,122 --> 01:00:05,874 to some kind of great future where we are way beyond 1356 01:00:05,876 --> 01:00:07,253 what it means to be a human being. 1357 01:00:07,255 --> 01:00:12,534 Unfortunately, organic robots grow old and die, 1358 01:00:12,536 --> 01:00:17,069 and this isn't a choice, it's completely involuntary. 1359 01:00:17,071 --> 01:00:19,381 120 years from now, in the absence 1360 01:00:19,383 --> 01:00:22,493 of radical biological interventions, 1361 01:00:22,495 --> 01:00:26,149 everyone listening to this video will be dead, 1362 01:00:26,154 --> 01:00:28,472 and not beautifully as so, 1363 01:00:28,474 --> 01:00:32,412 but one's last years tends to be those of decrepitude, 1364 01:00:32,414 --> 01:00:34,912 frequently senility, infirmity, 1365 01:00:34,914 --> 01:00:40,240 and transhumanists don't accept aging as inevitable. 1366 01:00:40,242 --> 01:00:42,853 There's no immutable law of nature 1367 01:00:42,855 --> 01:00:45,894 that says that organic robots must grow old. 1368 01:00:45,896 --> 01:00:48,613 After all, silicone robots, they don't need to grow old. 1369 01:00:48,615 --> 01:00:51,235 Their parts can be replaced and upgraded. 1370 01:00:51,990 --> 01:00:53,787 Our bodies are capable of adjusting 1371 01:00:53,789 --> 01:00:56,024 in ways we've hardly dreamt of. 1372 01:00:56,736 --> 01:00:58,805 If we can only find the key. 1373 01:00:59,354 --> 01:01:02,469 I'm so close now, so very close. 1374 01:01:04,055 --> 01:01:06,354 - The key to what? - To be able to replace 1375 01:01:06,356 --> 01:01:08,135 diseased and damaged parts of the body 1376 01:01:08,137 --> 01:01:10,876 as easily as we replace eye corneas now. 1377 01:01:11,402 --> 01:01:13,282 Can't be done. 1378 01:01:14,042 --> 01:01:15,882 It can be done! 1379 01:01:16,452 --> 01:01:18,946 The relationship between life and death 1380 01:01:19,295 --> 01:01:23,930 and the role of technology in forestalling death 1381 01:01:24,135 --> 01:01:27,626 creates death, in a way, as a new kind of problem. 1382 01:01:28,001 --> 01:01:30,860 Death becomes something that needs to be solved. 1383 01:01:30,950 --> 01:01:32,389 Why would it be good to live forever? 1384 01:01:32,391 --> 01:01:33,810 'Cause if you have a shit day, 1385 01:01:33,812 --> 01:01:36,340 it dilutes the depression 1386 01:01:36,342 --> 01:01:38,721 within countless other days, you know? 1387 01:01:38,723 --> 01:01:44,133 And all of these metrics are about failing to exist 1388 01:01:44,135 --> 01:01:46,922 in the full light of your own autonomy. 1389 01:01:47,247 --> 01:01:49,042 That's all they're about, 1390 01:01:49,044 --> 01:01:50,929 and the paradox of your own autonomy, 1391 01:01:50,931 --> 01:01:53,750 which is you're simultaneously completely free 1392 01:01:53,752 --> 01:01:56,553 and completely unfree at the same time. 1393 01:01:56,555 --> 01:01:57,878 I have been to many conferences 1394 01:01:57,880 --> 01:02:00,417 where you got the anti-transhumanist person 1395 01:02:00,419 --> 01:02:02,308 saying, "This is just denial of death." 1396 01:02:02,310 --> 01:02:05,425 At the end of the day, that's all it's about, right? 1397 01:02:05,427 --> 01:02:08,753 And it's a kind of... the last hangover 1398 01:02:08,755 --> 01:02:10,206 of the Abrahamic religions, 1399 01:02:10,208 --> 01:02:11,557 this idea that we're gonna, you know, 1400 01:02:11,559 --> 01:02:12,940 come back to God and all this, 1401 01:02:12,942 --> 01:02:15,094 and we're gonna realize our God-like nature, 1402 01:02:15,096 --> 01:02:20,742 and this is really the last kind of point for that. 1403 01:02:21,465 --> 01:02:22,995 I think there's a lot of truth to that, 1404 01:02:22,997 --> 01:02:24,713 especially in terms of the issues 1405 01:02:24,715 --> 01:02:26,583 we've been talking about where everybody just seems 1406 01:02:26,585 --> 01:02:28,698 to take for granted that if you're given 1407 01:02:28,700 --> 01:02:31,221 the chance to live forever, you'd live forever. 1408 01:02:31,223 --> 01:02:33,873 I think yes, I think that that's true. 1409 01:02:33,875 --> 01:02:37,134 I don't think it's... I think it's true, 1410 01:02:37,136 --> 01:02:38,521 I don't know if it's as problematic 1411 01:02:38,523 --> 01:02:40,325 as people kind of claim it is. 1412 01:02:40,327 --> 01:02:42,177 In other words, that there's something wrong with 1413 01:02:42,179 --> 01:02:43,560 having this fear of death 1414 01:02:43,562 --> 01:02:44,807 and wanting to live forever. 1415 01:02:44,809 --> 01:02:46,913 No, I think living forever is... 1416 01:02:46,915 --> 01:02:49,661 I think the question is what are you doing with your time? 1417 01:02:49,663 --> 01:02:51,953 In what capacity do you wanna live forever? 1418 01:02:51,955 --> 01:02:54,323 So I do think it makes all the difference in the world 1419 01:02:54,325 --> 01:02:56,026 whether we're talking about Kurzweil's way 1420 01:02:56,028 --> 01:02:57,661 or we're talking about Aubrey de Grey's way. 1421 01:02:57,663 --> 01:02:59,416 The way the human species operates 1422 01:02:59,418 --> 01:03:02,339 is that we're really never fully ready for anything. 1423 01:03:02,341 --> 01:03:05,160 However, the prospect of living indefinitely 1424 01:03:05,162 --> 01:03:08,989 is too promising to turn down or to slow down 1425 01:03:08,991 --> 01:03:12,080 or to just not go after at full speed. 1426 01:03:12,082 --> 01:03:14,193 By enabling us to find technologies 1427 01:03:14,195 --> 01:03:16,294 to live indefinitely, we're not making it 1428 01:03:16,296 --> 01:03:17,835 so that we're going to live forever, 1429 01:03:17,837 --> 01:03:19,924 we're just making it so we have that choice. 1430 01:03:19,926 --> 01:03:21,935 If people wanna pull out of life 1431 01:03:21,937 --> 01:03:23,232 at some point down the future, 1432 01:03:23,234 --> 01:03:24,971 they're certainly welcome to do that. 1433 01:03:24,973 --> 01:03:28,489 However, it's gonna be great to eliminate death if we want, 1434 01:03:28,491 --> 01:03:31,054 because everyone wants that choice. 1435 01:03:31,494 --> 01:03:34,273 There are other socioeconomic repercussions 1436 01:03:34,275 --> 01:03:37,234 of living longer that need to be considered. 1437 01:03:37,418 --> 01:03:40,013 The combination of an aging population 1438 01:03:40,015 --> 01:03:42,771 and the escalating expenses of healthcare, 1439 01:03:42,773 --> 01:03:45,674 social care, and retirement is a problem 1440 01:03:45,676 --> 01:03:48,393 that already exists the world over. 1441 01:03:48,395 --> 01:03:50,349 In the last century alone, 1442 01:03:50,351 --> 01:03:52,739 medicine has massively contributed 1443 01:03:52,741 --> 01:03:55,195 to increased life expectancy. 1444 01:03:56,333 --> 01:03:59,152 According to the World Health Organization, 1445 01:03:59,154 --> 01:04:02,010 the number of people aged 60 years and over 1446 01:04:02,012 --> 01:04:06,271 is expected to increase from the 605 million today 1447 01:04:06,273 --> 01:04:10,304 to 2 billion by the year 2050. 1448 01:04:10,548 --> 01:04:13,504 As people live longer, they become more susceptible 1449 01:04:13,506 --> 01:04:16,325 to noncommunicable diseases. 1450 01:04:16,327 --> 01:04:19,851 This becomes enormously expensive. 1451 01:04:20,093 --> 01:04:25,265 Dementia alone costs the NHS 23 billion a year. 1452 01:04:25,614 --> 01:04:28,454 Currently, elderly non-workers 1453 01:04:28,456 --> 01:04:32,155 account for a vast portion of our population 1454 01:04:32,157 --> 01:04:36,460 and a vast portion of our work force care for them. 1455 01:04:36,614 --> 01:04:42,075 It is economically beneficial to end aging. 1456 01:04:42,455 --> 01:04:45,356 Social life is organized around people having... 1457 01:04:45,358 --> 01:04:48,570 occupying certain roles at certain ages, right? 1458 01:04:48,659 --> 01:04:50,888 And you can already see the kinds of problems 1459 01:04:50,890 --> 01:04:52,993 that are caused to the welfare system 1460 01:04:52,995 --> 01:04:56,033 when people live substantially beyond the age of 65, 1461 01:04:56,035 --> 01:05:01,073 because when the whole number 65 was selected by Bismarck 1462 01:05:01,075 --> 01:05:03,151 when he started the first social security system, 1463 01:05:03,153 --> 01:05:06,021 in Germany, the expectation was that people would be living 1464 01:05:06,023 --> 01:05:08,521 two years beyond the retirement age 1465 01:05:08,523 --> 01:05:10,291 to be able to get the social security. 1466 01:05:10,293 --> 01:05:12,354 So it wasn't gonna break the bank, okay? 1467 01:05:12,356 --> 01:05:15,044 Problem now is you've got people who are living 20 years 1468 01:05:15,046 --> 01:05:17,552 or more beyond the retirement age, 1469 01:05:17,554 --> 01:05:18,932 and that's unaffordable. 1470 01:05:18,934 --> 01:05:21,873 There's no question that, within society as a whole, 1471 01:05:21,875 --> 01:05:25,953 there is an enormous tendency to knee-jerk reactions 1472 01:05:25,955 --> 01:05:29,021 with regard to the problems that might be created 1473 01:05:29,023 --> 01:05:31,810 if we were to eliminate aging. 1474 01:05:31,812 --> 01:05:33,913 There have been people that said, you know, 1475 01:05:33,915 --> 01:05:36,377 "You'll be bored, you won't have anything to do." 1476 01:05:36,379 --> 01:05:39,716 Speaking from a place of a lifespan 1477 01:05:39,718 --> 01:05:41,487 that's 80 or 90 years old, 1478 01:05:41,489 --> 01:05:43,054 saying that we're going to be bored 1479 01:05:43,056 --> 01:05:46,433 if we live to 150 years old really is just invalid. 1480 01:05:46,435 --> 01:05:48,771 We have no idea what we'll do with that time. 1481 01:05:48,773 --> 01:05:50,372 Part of this transhumanism stuff, 1482 01:05:50,374 --> 01:05:53,182 where it gets some kind of real policy traction, 1483 01:05:53,184 --> 01:05:57,169 is people who want us not to live to be 1,000, 1484 01:05:57,171 --> 01:05:59,799 but maybe if we can take that 20 years 1485 01:05:59,801 --> 01:06:03,122 that we're living longer now than we did 100 years ago 1486 01:06:03,124 --> 01:06:05,075 and keep that productive. 1487 01:06:05,077 --> 01:06:06,894 So in other words, if you could still be strong 1488 01:06:06,896 --> 01:06:10,154 and still be sharp into your 70s and 80s, 1489 01:06:10,156 --> 01:06:12,802 and so not have to pull any social security 1490 01:06:12,804 --> 01:06:15,466 until quite late in life and then you'll be... 1491 01:06:15,468 --> 01:06:17,254 you'll have 20 extra years 1492 01:06:17,256 --> 01:06:19,330 where you're actually contributing to the economy. 1493 01:06:19,332 --> 01:06:21,325 So one of the areas that we're gonna have to think about 1494 01:06:21,327 --> 01:06:23,661 in the near future if we do achieve 1495 01:06:23,663 --> 01:06:26,655 extreme longevity physically 1496 01:06:26,657 --> 01:06:29,537 is the idea of overpopulation. 1497 01:06:29,561 --> 01:06:32,713 This is a controversial idea, of course, 1498 01:06:32,715 --> 01:06:36,713 and we may face a time period where we have to say to people, 1499 01:06:36,715 --> 01:06:40,654 "You have to be licensed to have more than one child." 1500 01:06:40,656 --> 01:06:43,393 The ideas around children, I hope, will probably change 1501 01:06:43,395 --> 01:06:48,226 when people start to realize that the values of children 1502 01:06:48,707 --> 01:06:51,045 need to be defined first before we have them. 1503 01:06:51,047 --> 01:06:52,706 And that's not something that we do. 1504 01:06:52,708 --> 01:06:55,591 We just have them, and we don't define why 1505 01:06:55,593 --> 01:06:56,919 or for what purpose. 1506 01:06:56,921 --> 01:06:58,698 I'm not saying there has to be a defined purpose, 1507 01:06:58,700 --> 01:07:01,232 but I'm saying that just to continue our gene line 1508 01:07:01,234 --> 01:07:02,552 isn't the biggest reason. 1509 01:07:02,554 --> 01:07:04,153 At the moment, ultimately, 1510 01:07:04,155 --> 01:07:07,713 we see in any society where fertility rate goes down 1511 01:07:07,715 --> 01:07:10,753 because of female prosperity and emancipation 1512 01:07:10,755 --> 01:07:13,334 and education, we also see the age 1513 01:07:13,336 --> 01:07:16,435 of the average childbirth go up, right? 1514 01:07:16,437 --> 01:07:18,198 We see women having their children later. 1515 01:07:18,200 --> 01:07:21,052 Now of course, at the moment, there's a deadline for that, 1516 01:07:21,054 --> 01:07:22,872 but that's not going to exist anymore, 1517 01:07:22,874 --> 01:07:24,673 because menopause is part of aging. 1518 01:07:24,675 --> 01:07:27,443 So women who are choosing to have their children 1519 01:07:27,445 --> 01:07:28,849 a bit later now, 1520 01:07:28,851 --> 01:07:30,817 it stands to reason that a lot of them 1521 01:07:30,819 --> 01:07:32,494 are probably gonna choose to have their children 1522 01:07:32,496 --> 01:07:34,715 a lot later and a lot later and that, of course, 1523 01:07:34,717 --> 01:07:37,734 also has an enormous depressive impact 1524 01:07:37,736 --> 01:07:40,599 on the trajectory of global population. 1525 01:07:40,601 --> 01:07:42,236 If we actually said to everybody, "Okay, 1526 01:07:42,238 --> 01:07:44,145 you're all now gonna live for 1,000 years, 1527 01:07:44,147 --> 01:07:46,043 we could restructure society 1528 01:07:46,045 --> 01:07:47,957 so it's on these 1,000-year cycles. 1529 01:07:47,959 --> 01:07:51,322 That's possible, but the problem becomes 1530 01:07:51,324 --> 01:07:55,244 when you still allow people to live the normal length 1531 01:07:55,246 --> 01:07:57,910 and you're also allowing some people to live 1,000 years 1532 01:07:57,912 --> 01:08:00,653 then how do you compare the value of the lives, 1533 01:08:00,655 --> 01:08:02,273 the amount of experience? 1534 01:08:02,275 --> 01:08:04,653 Supposing a 585-year-old guy 1535 01:08:04,655 --> 01:08:06,712 goes up for a job against a 23-year-old. 1536 01:08:06,714 --> 01:08:08,340 How do you measure the experience? 1537 01:08:08,342 --> 01:08:10,103 What, the old guy always gets the job? 1538 01:08:10,105 --> 01:08:13,957 I mean, really, these kinds of problems would arise 1539 01:08:13,959 --> 01:08:16,159 unless there was some kind of legislation 1540 01:08:16,161 --> 01:08:18,814 about permissible variation in age. 1541 01:08:18,816 --> 01:08:20,410 This is a bit of a conundrum 1542 01:08:20,412 --> 01:08:24,512 because we're all expanding our lifespan, 1543 01:08:24,514 --> 01:08:27,660 and the question is, would you like to live 1544 01:08:27,662 --> 01:08:30,033 for not 100 years but 200? 1545 01:08:30,035 --> 01:08:32,132 Would you choose to if you could? 1546 01:08:32,134 --> 01:08:34,153 It would be very, very difficult to say no. 1547 01:08:34,155 --> 01:08:37,753 The reality is the replacement of human piece parts 1548 01:08:37,755 --> 01:08:40,181 is probably gonna take us in that direction, 1549 01:08:40,183 --> 01:08:41,873 but it will be market driven, 1550 01:08:41,875 --> 01:08:44,353 and those people with the money will be able to afford 1551 01:08:44,355 --> 01:08:46,403 to live a lot longer than those people without. 1552 01:08:46,405 --> 01:08:48,283 Pretty much most of the discovery these days 1553 01:08:48,285 --> 01:08:50,736 takes place in Western Europe of the United States 1554 01:08:50,738 --> 01:08:55,126 or one or two other countries, China, Singapore, and so on, 1555 01:08:55,128 --> 01:08:58,767 but if they're valuable enough... and I don't mean monetarily... 1556 01:08:58,769 --> 01:09:01,793 if they're worth having, then people extend them. 1557 01:09:01,795 --> 01:09:04,020 We have to start somewhere, and I don't believe 1558 01:09:04,022 --> 01:09:06,028 in the "dog in the manger" attitude, 1559 01:09:06,030 --> 01:09:07,496 is that you don't give it to anybody 1560 01:09:07,498 --> 01:09:09,295 until you can provide it for everybody. 1561 01:09:09,297 --> 01:09:11,836 All technologies are discontinuous. 1562 01:09:11,838 --> 01:09:14,407 There are people at this very moment 1563 01:09:14,409 --> 01:09:16,403 who are walking four kilometers 1564 01:09:16,405 --> 01:09:18,686 to get a bucket of water from a well. 1565 01:09:18,863 --> 01:09:22,275 You know, there are people who are having cornea operations 1566 01:09:22,277 --> 01:09:25,528 that are done with a needle where it's stuck in their eye 1567 01:09:25,530 --> 01:09:27,876 and their cornea is scraped out. 1568 01:09:27,878 --> 01:09:30,426 You know, so these ideas of totalizing 1569 01:09:30,428 --> 01:09:33,068 utopian technological intervention 1570 01:09:33,075 --> 01:09:35,790 are part of a discontinuous technological world 1571 01:09:35,792 --> 01:09:38,817 and the world will always be discontinuous technologically. 1572 01:09:38,819 --> 01:09:43,270 When a child has to drink dirty water, cannot get food, 1573 01:09:43,272 --> 01:09:45,891 and is dying of starvation and disease, 1574 01:09:45,893 --> 01:09:48,397 and the solution is just a few dollars, 1575 01:09:48,559 --> 01:09:50,098 there's something badly wrong. 1576 01:09:50,100 --> 01:09:52,660 We need to fix those things. 1577 01:09:53,035 --> 01:09:56,926 The only way that we could fix them in the past 1578 01:09:56,928 --> 01:09:59,059 would've been at unbelievable cost 1579 01:09:59,061 --> 01:10:00,223 because of the limitation 1580 01:10:00,225 --> 01:10:02,496 of our industrial capacity and capability. 1581 01:10:02,498 --> 01:10:04,498 Not anymore. 1582 01:10:08,869 --> 01:10:12,921 ...not the one which is... which stops us from aging. 1583 01:10:13,124 --> 01:10:17,864 In the last 20 years, healthcare in Sub-Saharan Africa 1584 01:10:17,866 --> 01:10:19,986 has greatly improved. 1585 01:10:20,392 --> 01:10:23,152 HIV prevalence has gone down, 1586 01:10:23,202 --> 01:10:26,173 Infant mortality rate has gone down. 1587 01:10:26,175 --> 01:10:28,865 Immunization rates have gone up, 1588 01:10:28,867 --> 01:10:32,827 and the drug supply in many areas has risen. 1589 01:10:32,871 --> 01:10:35,723 However, healthcare and medication 1590 01:10:35,725 --> 01:10:37,353 in developing countries 1591 01:10:37,355 --> 01:10:41,296 is not always affordable or even readily available. 1592 01:10:41,394 --> 01:10:43,188 It is not just medicine. 1593 01:10:43,190 --> 01:10:45,715 According to the World Health Organization, 1594 01:10:45,717 --> 01:10:48,887 over 700 million people worldwide 1595 01:10:48,889 --> 01:10:52,409 do not have access to clean drinking water. 1596 01:10:52,515 --> 01:10:55,410 We still live in an age where over one billion people 1597 01:10:55,412 --> 01:10:57,614 live off less than a dollar a day 1598 01:10:57,616 --> 01:11:00,096 and live in extreme poverty. 1599 01:11:00,130 --> 01:11:03,106 It is ultimately not a scientific issue, 1600 01:11:03,108 --> 01:11:05,803 it is a geopolitical issue. 1601 01:12:07,184 --> 01:12:09,744 Now a lot of people, a lot of philanthropists 1602 01:12:09,814 --> 01:12:14,447 are of the view that the most important thing to do 1603 01:12:14,449 --> 01:12:18,174 is to address the trailing edge of quality of life. 1604 01:12:18,176 --> 01:12:20,938 In other words, to help the disadvantaged. 1605 01:12:20,940 --> 01:12:23,687 But some visionary philanthropists 1606 01:12:23,689 --> 01:12:26,525 such as the ones that fund SENS Research Foundation... 1607 01:12:26,527 --> 01:12:28,313 and the fact is I agree with this, 1608 01:12:28,315 --> 01:12:30,433 and that's why I've put most of my inheritance 1609 01:12:30,435 --> 01:12:32,610 into SENS Research Foundation, too... 1610 01:12:32,612 --> 01:12:36,564 we feel that, actually, in the long run, 1611 01:12:36,566 --> 01:12:40,111 you lose out if you focus too exclusively 1612 01:12:40,113 --> 01:12:41,508 on the trailing edge. 1613 01:12:41,510 --> 01:12:44,656 You've got also to push forward the leading edge, 1614 01:12:44,658 --> 01:12:47,848 so that in the long term, everybody moves forward. 1615 01:13:38,001 --> 01:13:40,633 Due to a lack of funding from governments, 1616 01:13:40,635 --> 01:13:44,873 anti-aging research is often pushed into the private sector. 1617 01:13:44,875 --> 01:13:48,851 If we look at funding for disease... 1618 01:13:48,853 --> 01:13:50,474 cancer, heart disease... 1619 01:13:50,476 --> 01:13:52,814 they get six billion, eight billion, ten billion. 1620 01:13:52,816 --> 01:13:55,557 AIDS still gets two to four billion. 1621 01:13:55,753 --> 01:13:57,633 Let's look at Alzheimer's disease. 1622 01:13:57,635 --> 01:13:59,982 It's probably the most important disease of aging, 1623 01:13:59,984 --> 01:14:03,557 the brain... it gets under a half a billion 1624 01:14:03,608 --> 01:14:04,781 from the federal government, 1625 01:14:04,783 --> 01:14:07,000 and a lot of that goes to programs 1626 01:14:07,002 --> 01:14:08,673 that are tied up with pharma trials 1627 01:14:08,675 --> 01:14:10,755 where we don't really see it in the labs, 1628 01:14:10,788 --> 01:14:13,205 so you're maybe down to two or three hundred million. 1629 01:14:13,364 --> 01:14:16,353 It's not nearly enough to really make a dent. 1630 01:14:16,569 --> 01:14:22,109 The question is, why when it comes to Alzheimer's disease, 1631 01:14:22,111 --> 01:14:24,093 which is a problem in the elderly 1632 01:14:24,095 --> 01:14:26,353 do we just see it as... the federal government 1633 01:14:26,355 --> 01:14:28,375 seems to see it as a red-haired stepchild. 1634 01:14:28,377 --> 01:14:30,236 They don't take care of it. 1635 01:14:31,077 --> 01:14:32,461 Some people say it's because... 1636 01:14:32,463 --> 01:14:34,023 people say, "Well, it affects old people, 1637 01:14:34,025 --> 01:14:36,177 they lived their lives, let them go." 1638 01:14:36,179 --> 01:14:38,648 No one wants to admit that, but maybe subconsciously, 1639 01:14:38,650 --> 01:14:40,414 when Congress is thinking about this, 1640 01:14:40,416 --> 01:14:42,096 that's at play, who knows? 1641 01:14:43,007 --> 01:14:45,033 Maybe it's much more compelling 1642 01:14:45,035 --> 01:14:49,031 to wanna put money into diseases that affect young people 1643 01:14:49,033 --> 01:14:50,974 who still have their whole life to live 1644 01:14:50,976 --> 01:14:52,892 when they have AIDS or breast cancer 1645 01:14:52,894 --> 01:14:55,481 or cancer that can strike somebody at 30 or 40 years old. 1646 01:14:55,483 --> 01:14:57,953 Age might be part of it, and even if it's something 1647 01:14:57,955 --> 01:14:59,758 where you'd say, "No, it can't be that!" 1648 01:14:59,760 --> 01:15:01,499 you never know what's happening subconsciously 1649 01:15:01,501 --> 01:15:03,160 in those who are making the decisions. 1650 01:15:03,162 --> 01:15:04,805 Otherwise, it just makes no sense at all. 1651 01:15:04,807 --> 01:15:06,349 I don't know how to explain it. 1652 01:15:06,351 --> 01:15:07,934 When you talk to people about aging 1653 01:15:07,936 --> 01:15:11,113 and rejuvenation medicine, you're talking about things 1654 01:15:11,115 --> 01:15:13,601 that they haven't put in the same category 1655 01:15:13,603 --> 01:15:14,855 as things that they can fight. 1656 01:15:14,857 --> 01:15:16,148 They are willing to put money 1657 01:15:16,150 --> 01:15:18,036 towards solving cancer and curing cancer. 1658 01:15:18,038 --> 01:15:20,458 It's something they might have the potential of experiencing. 1659 01:15:20,460 --> 01:15:23,153 But the thing that's 100 percent in terms of probability, 1660 01:15:23,155 --> 01:15:25,513 they haven't classified that as in the same category 1661 01:15:25,515 --> 01:15:27,812 when actually it is and actually it's more dramatic 1662 01:15:27,814 --> 01:15:29,869 because 100 percent of people experience it. 1663 01:15:29,912 --> 01:15:32,952 You need to have the will to be cured. 1664 01:15:32,995 --> 01:15:37,062 Beyond that, medical science will play its part. 1665 01:15:37,064 --> 01:15:39,945 I think it's essentially a crime 1666 01:15:39,947 --> 01:15:42,430 to not support life extension science, 1667 01:15:42,432 --> 01:15:44,285 because if you support the other side, 1668 01:15:44,287 --> 01:15:46,774 you're an advocate for killing someone. 1669 01:15:46,776 --> 01:15:51,148 When you actually support a culture of death, 1670 01:15:51,150 --> 01:15:54,364 when you support embracing death, 1671 01:15:54,366 --> 01:15:58,055 what you're really doing is not supporting embracing life. 1672 01:15:58,057 --> 01:15:59,916 Everyone ought to be healthy, 1673 01:15:59,918 --> 01:16:02,355 however long ago they were born. 1674 01:16:02,421 --> 01:16:05,333 When someone says, "Oh, dear, we shouldn't defeat aging, 1675 01:16:05,335 --> 01:16:06,989 we shouldn't work to eliminate aging," 1676 01:16:06,991 --> 01:16:09,770 what they're actually saying is they're not in favor 1677 01:16:09,772 --> 01:16:12,419 of healthcare for the elderly, or to be more precise, 1678 01:16:12,421 --> 01:16:14,765 what they're saying is they're only in favor 1679 01:16:14,767 --> 01:16:16,406 of healthcare for the elderly 1680 01:16:16,408 --> 01:16:18,893 so long as it doesn't work very well. 1681 01:16:19,046 --> 01:16:21,752 And I think that's fucked up. 1682 01:16:21,999 --> 01:16:24,601 In September 2013, 1683 01:16:24,603 --> 01:16:27,747 Google announced the conception of Calico, 1684 01:16:27,749 --> 01:16:29,984 an independent biotech company 1685 01:16:29,986 --> 01:16:32,846 that remains to this day a little mysterious. 1686 01:16:33,155 --> 01:16:37,575 Its aim is to tackle aging and devise interventions 1687 01:16:37,577 --> 01:16:41,692 that enable people to lead longer and healthier lives. 1688 01:16:41,694 --> 01:16:44,153 In September 2014, 1689 01:16:44,155 --> 01:16:47,117 the life extension company announced it was partnering 1690 01:16:47,119 --> 01:16:50,593 with biopharmaceutical giant AbbVie, 1691 01:16:50,595 --> 01:16:55,971 and made a $1.5 billion investment into research. 1692 01:16:56,038 --> 01:16:57,828 I think one of the biggest obstacles 1693 01:16:57,830 --> 01:17:00,089 that we have at the moment to come to terms 1694 01:17:00,091 --> 01:17:02,465 with this future world we're talking about 1695 01:17:02,467 --> 01:17:04,646 is a lot of people who basically 1696 01:17:04,648 --> 01:17:06,974 don't want it to happen at all 1697 01:17:06,976 --> 01:17:10,414 and so are placing all kinds of ethical 1698 01:17:10,416 --> 01:17:12,255 and institutional restrictions 1699 01:17:12,257 --> 01:17:14,028 on the development of this stuff 1700 01:17:14,030 --> 01:17:16,169 so that it becomes difficult, let's say, in universities 1701 01:17:16,171 --> 01:17:18,570 to experiment with certain kinds of drugs, right? 1702 01:17:18,572 --> 01:17:20,713 To develop certain kinds of machines maybe even, 1703 01:17:20,715 --> 01:17:22,993 and as a result, all of that kind of research 1704 01:17:22,995 --> 01:17:25,773 ends up going into either the private sector 1705 01:17:25,775 --> 01:17:28,161 or maybe underground, right? 1706 01:17:28,163 --> 01:17:30,664 Or going into some country that's an ethics-free zone 1707 01:17:30,666 --> 01:17:32,481 like China or someplace like that, 1708 01:17:32,483 --> 01:17:34,309 and I think that's where the real problems 1709 01:17:34,311 --> 01:17:37,286 potentially lie, because we really need to be doing, 1710 01:17:37,288 --> 01:17:39,039 you know, we need to be developing this stuff, 1711 01:17:39,041 --> 01:17:41,122 but in the public eye, right? 1712 01:17:41,124 --> 01:17:44,023 So it should be done by the mainstream authorities 1713 01:17:44,025 --> 01:17:45,672 so we can monitor the consequences 1714 01:17:45,674 --> 01:17:47,172 as they're happening and then be able 1715 01:17:47,174 --> 01:17:48,534 to take appropriate action. 1716 01:17:48,536 --> 01:17:50,433 But I'm afraid that a lot of this stuff 1717 01:17:50,435 --> 01:17:53,094 is perhaps being driven outside 1718 01:17:53,096 --> 01:17:55,359 because of all the restrictions that are placed on it. 1719 01:17:55,361 --> 01:17:56,567 That I think is very worrisome, 1720 01:17:56,569 --> 01:17:58,374 because then you can't keep track of the results, 1721 01:17:58,376 --> 01:18:00,955 and you don't know exactly what's happening. 1722 01:18:00,957 --> 01:18:02,969 And I think that's a real problem already 1723 01:18:02,971 --> 01:18:05,596 with a lot of this more futuristic stuff. 1724 01:18:06,890 --> 01:18:08,945 Arguably, the human condition 1725 01:18:08,947 --> 01:18:11,940 is defined by our anxiety of death. 1726 01:18:11,980 --> 01:18:14,390 It's of little wonder that throughout history, 1727 01:18:14,392 --> 01:18:17,605 mankind has built countless belief systems 1728 01:18:17,607 --> 01:18:20,340 in a bid to pacify the fear of death 1729 01:18:20,342 --> 01:18:23,479 through the promise of endless paradise. 1730 01:18:23,629 --> 01:18:26,829 Ultimately, death always wins. 1731 01:18:27,075 --> 01:18:31,651 If it's not so much death we fear, it's dying. 1732 01:18:31,804 --> 01:18:34,015 The relationship between life and death 1733 01:18:34,017 --> 01:18:38,294 is often figured in terms of immortality 1734 01:18:38,296 --> 01:18:40,174 and the quest for immortality. 1735 01:18:40,233 --> 01:18:42,574 There's a philosopher, a brilliant philosopher 1736 01:18:42,576 --> 01:18:46,107 called Stephen Cave, who, in his book Immortality, 1737 01:18:46,109 --> 01:18:50,088 argues that our fear of death is the great driver 1738 01:18:50,090 --> 01:18:53,927 of all civilization, of all human endeavor, 1739 01:18:53,929 --> 01:18:57,461 and he identifies four different ways 1740 01:18:57,463 --> 01:19:00,762 in which people seek immortality, 1741 01:19:00,764 --> 01:19:04,820 so firstly the idea of extending life, 1742 01:19:04,822 --> 01:19:06,462 of living forever. 1743 01:19:06,679 --> 01:19:08,719 Secondly, the idea of resurrection 1744 01:19:08,734 --> 01:19:12,526 so that we might come back after death in some form. 1745 01:19:13,079 --> 01:19:16,353 Thirdly, the idea of the immortality 1746 01:19:16,355 --> 01:19:20,452 of some part of ourselves beyond the physical body. 1747 01:19:20,454 --> 01:19:23,578 So perhaps the immortality of the soul, for example, 1748 01:19:23,580 --> 01:19:26,190 or living on in Heaven. 1749 01:19:26,333 --> 01:19:30,369 And finally the idea of leaving a legacy. 1750 01:19:30,638 --> 01:19:33,457 I think that one of life's challenges 1751 01:19:33,459 --> 01:19:35,633 really actually is to come to terms 1752 01:19:35,635 --> 01:19:38,836 with our own finitude and mortality 1753 01:19:38,838 --> 01:19:40,577 and human limitations, 1754 01:19:40,579 --> 01:19:44,447 and this is an enormous challenge. 1755 01:19:44,995 --> 01:19:53,835 [music] 1756 01:19:59,205 --> 01:20:03,285 Technology, a reflection of our times. 1757 01:20:03,515 --> 01:20:08,570 Efficient, computerized, with a sleek beauty all its own. 1758 01:20:08,577 --> 01:20:11,271 Technology is the human imagination 1759 01:20:11,273 --> 01:20:13,153 converted into reality. 1760 01:20:13,270 --> 01:20:15,273 We are all interested in the future, 1761 01:20:15,275 --> 01:20:17,771 for that is where you and I are going to spend 1762 01:20:17,773 --> 01:20:20,013 the rest of our lives. 1763 01:20:20,520 --> 01:20:24,854 [high-pitched tone] 1764 01:20:24,856 --> 01:20:28,726 [music] 1765 01:20:28,918 --> 01:20:31,068 It's impossible to say for sure 1766 01:20:31,070 --> 01:20:33,689 where these new technologies will take us 1767 01:20:33,691 --> 01:20:37,633 and how we will prepare to implement them into society. 1768 01:20:37,635 --> 01:20:40,630 It is likely that they will affect the sensibilities 1769 01:20:40,632 --> 01:20:43,312 of global infrastructure. 1770 01:20:43,731 --> 01:20:47,904 There are always anxieties surrounding new technologies, 1771 01:20:47,906 --> 01:20:51,066 and this time is no exception. 1772 01:20:51,226 --> 01:20:53,026 I think people fear change, 1773 01:20:53,475 --> 01:20:56,388 and so the future represents this enormous amount 1774 01:20:56,390 --> 01:20:58,539 of change that's coming at us. 1775 01:20:58,614 --> 01:21:00,560 I do think it's overwhelming for people, 1776 01:21:00,562 --> 01:21:03,838 you know, they are afraid to change 1777 01:21:03,840 --> 01:21:05,233 the paradigm that they live in, 1778 01:21:05,235 --> 01:21:08,127 and when we talk about the future of work and death, 1779 01:21:08,129 --> 01:21:10,208 what we're really talking about is changing 1780 01:21:10,210 --> 01:21:12,232 a paradigm that has existed for us 1781 01:21:12,234 --> 01:21:13,432 as long as we can remember. 1782 01:21:13,434 --> 01:21:16,397 All of this kind of scare mongering 1783 01:21:16,399 --> 01:21:19,820 about harm and risk and stuff like that 1784 01:21:20,376 --> 01:21:24,616 really is... it's based on a kind of psychological illusion, 1785 01:21:24,618 --> 01:21:28,658 namely that you imagine that you kind of see the bad state 1786 01:21:28,660 --> 01:21:31,280 as a bad state when it happens, 1787 01:21:31,282 --> 01:21:33,611 whereas in fact, what more likely happens 1788 01:21:33,613 --> 01:21:36,461 is that you kinda get adjusted to the various changes 1789 01:21:36,463 --> 01:21:37,903 that are happening in your environment 1790 01:21:37,905 --> 01:21:39,591 so that when you actually do reach that state 1791 01:21:39,593 --> 01:21:42,494 we're talking about, it'll seem normal. 1792 01:21:43,226 --> 01:21:45,325 And because, look, when the automobile 1793 01:21:45,327 --> 01:21:47,666 was introduced in the early 20th century, 1794 01:21:47,668 --> 01:21:49,607 people were saying this is just gonna pump 1795 01:21:49,609 --> 01:21:51,228 a lot of smoke into the atmosphere, 1796 01:21:51,230 --> 01:21:53,091 it's going to ruin our contact with nature 1797 01:21:53,093 --> 01:21:55,101 'cause we'll be in these enclosed vehicles, 1798 01:21:55,103 --> 01:21:56,313 we'll be going so fast, 1799 01:21:56,315 --> 01:21:57,664 we won't be able to appreciate things, 1800 01:21:57,666 --> 01:22:00,109 there'll be congestion, blah, blah, blah, 1801 01:22:00,111 --> 01:22:01,864 they were right! 1802 01:22:01,866 --> 01:22:03,226 They were right, but of course, 1803 01:22:03,228 --> 01:22:05,175 by the time you get to that state 1804 01:22:05,177 --> 01:22:07,196 where the automobile has had that impact, 1805 01:22:07,198 --> 01:22:09,020 it's also had all this benefit as well, 1806 01:22:09,022 --> 01:22:11,328 and your whole life has been kind of restructured around it. 1807 01:22:11,330 --> 01:22:13,993 Arguably, people who are using 1808 01:22:13,995 --> 01:22:19,233 or have been conceived using in vitro fertilization 1809 01:22:19,235 --> 01:22:24,713 are cyborgs way before they were ever even people. 1810 01:22:24,715 --> 01:22:27,851 Now that doesn't mean that we understand kinship 1811 01:22:27,853 --> 01:22:29,500 in a radically different way. 1812 01:22:29,502 --> 01:22:31,193 Just look at the Industrial Revolution! 1813 01:22:31,195 --> 01:22:34,562 Is anyone actually... does anyone actually regret 1814 01:22:34,564 --> 01:22:36,437 that the Industrial Revolution occurred? 1815 01:22:36,439 --> 01:22:38,520 No, it was fairly turbulent, right? 1816 01:22:38,522 --> 01:22:41,414 You know, we did actually have a little bit of strife 1817 01:22:41,416 --> 01:22:44,140 in the translation from a pre-industrial world 1818 01:22:44,142 --> 01:22:45,336 to the world we know today. 1819 01:22:45,338 --> 01:22:47,200 But the fact is, we adapted. 1820 01:22:47,202 --> 01:22:49,687 The most important thing here is to try to compare it 1821 01:22:49,689 --> 01:22:51,273 to something in the past. 1822 01:22:51,275 --> 01:22:54,793 Imagine we were... it was 1914, 100 years back, 1823 01:22:54,795 --> 01:22:57,297 and I told you that most people on the planet 1824 01:22:57,299 --> 01:22:58,673 would have the ability to have 1825 01:22:58,675 --> 01:23:00,325 this tiny cell phone screen in front of them 1826 01:23:00,327 --> 01:23:03,313 and video conference with ten of their friends all at once. 1827 01:23:03,315 --> 01:23:06,014 If it was 1914, you would look at me and say, 1828 01:23:06,016 --> 01:23:07,937 "That's absurd, this guy's insane." 1829 01:23:07,939 --> 01:23:10,336 However, it's the sort of same concept 1830 01:23:10,338 --> 01:23:11,753 when I tell you now in 50 years 1831 01:23:11,755 --> 01:23:14,260 we're going to be digital beings of ourselves, 1832 01:23:14,262 --> 01:23:15,553 it's no so far-fetched. 1833 01:23:15,555 --> 01:23:17,612 You have to look at it in the historical context. 1834 01:23:17,614 --> 01:23:20,473 All concepts of technological progress 1835 01:23:20,475 --> 01:23:24,713 in that way are linked to post-enlightenment ideas 1836 01:23:24,715 --> 01:23:27,250 or non... they're linked to the idea 1837 01:23:27,252 --> 01:23:30,218 of the arrow of time being in free flight forward, 1838 01:23:30,220 --> 01:23:34,028 but they're also chiliastic, they propose an end state. 1839 01:23:34,213 --> 01:23:35,673 They propose the end state, 1840 01:23:35,675 --> 01:23:37,334 and the end state is the singularity, 1841 01:23:37,336 --> 01:23:39,593 but they propose it as something desirable. 1842 01:23:39,595 --> 01:23:42,993 Now any kind of philosophy like that, it's, you know, 1843 01:23:42,995 --> 01:23:46,554 jam tomorrow, jam yesterday, but never jam today. 1844 01:23:46,556 --> 01:23:48,833 They're all philosophies that are about 1845 01:23:48,835 --> 01:23:52,153 accept the shit you're in... work, consume, die... 1846 01:23:52,155 --> 01:23:54,492 because there is something better in the future, 1847 01:23:54,494 --> 01:23:56,242 or there's something more innovative in the future. 1848 01:23:56,244 --> 01:23:58,760 There are good scenarios and there are bad scenarios. 1849 01:23:58,762 --> 01:23:59,924 I don't know where we're headed. 1850 01:23:59,926 --> 01:24:03,294 I mean, I don't think anyone really knows. 1851 01:24:03,296 --> 01:24:04,993 You know, if anyone claims to know the future, 1852 01:24:04,995 --> 01:24:07,073 they're guessing, they're extrapolating forward, 1853 01:24:07,075 --> 01:24:08,433 and we draw some lines and curves 1854 01:24:08,435 --> 01:24:10,088 and see where technology's gonna be. 1855 01:24:10,090 --> 01:24:11,390 What that means, 1856 01:24:11,392 --> 01:24:13,113 I don't think any of us really understand. 1857 01:24:13,115 --> 01:24:16,153 Everyone assumes that the future is going to be 1858 01:24:16,155 --> 01:24:17,635 dramatically different from today 1859 01:24:17,637 --> 01:24:18,934 and that's absolutely true, 1860 01:24:18,936 --> 01:24:20,792 but it's also true that the future will be 1861 01:24:20,794 --> 01:24:22,174 an extension of today's world. 1862 01:24:22,176 --> 01:24:24,713 The problems that exist in today's world 1863 01:24:24,715 --> 01:24:27,247 are still gonna be with us in the future. 1864 01:24:27,656 --> 01:24:29,555 Human nature is not gonna change. 1865 01:24:29,557 --> 01:24:32,198 The end point in all of this game 1866 01:24:32,200 --> 01:24:34,966 will become a bit of a moral 1867 01:24:35,075 --> 01:24:38,167 and an ethical question for society 1868 01:24:38,169 --> 01:24:40,739 where decisions will have to be made. 1869 01:24:41,355 --> 01:24:45,198 Like life itself, work and death, for better or worse, 1870 01:24:45,200 --> 01:24:47,393 are two features of the human experience 1871 01:24:47,395 --> 01:24:49,583 that are thrust upon us. 1872 01:24:50,494 --> 01:24:52,963 Whether or not we define work and death 1873 01:24:52,965 --> 01:24:54,979 as problems in need of remedy, 1874 01:24:54,981 --> 01:24:59,042 human ingenuity is a progressive and natural extension 1875 01:24:59,044 --> 01:25:01,599 of our own evolution. 1876 01:25:01,601 --> 01:25:07,333 [music] 1877 01:25:08,195 --> 01:25:11,523 Advancing our technological capabilities is a way 1878 01:25:11,525 --> 01:25:15,309 of dealing with our limitations as human beings. 1879 01:25:16,331 --> 01:25:17,734 Must we do something 1880 01:25:17,736 --> 01:25:20,374 just because we're capable of doing something? 1881 01:25:20,428 --> 01:25:22,734 Or can we withhold our hands and say 1882 01:25:22,736 --> 01:25:24,776 "No, this is not a good thing to do"? 1883 01:25:24,778 --> 01:25:27,973 This is something that the human species 1884 01:25:27,975 --> 01:25:29,393 must decide for itself. 1885 01:25:29,395 --> 01:25:32,090 You and I, we can't just leave it to the scientists. 1886 01:25:32,092 --> 01:25:35,045 We have to know what's going on and why! 1887 01:25:35,047 --> 01:25:38,000 Subtitles by explosiveskull 1888 01:25:38,002 --> 01:25:43,722 [music] 150836

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