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okay so as promised let's just go through some of the recent price action
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here so it's going to utilize bar replay and let's just bring it back to let's
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say uh around here in price action so
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obviously you just looked at this hopefully you have watched part one um
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of this flip walkthrough and we can see that uh although the four hour is
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bearish right at this point right because we this was the swing high this
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was the swing low and we were pulling back
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we could start to see how demand was starting to take control because we came
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into the supplies in here we reacted we pushed up through and we came back into
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demand as we can see that led to the fuel to then actually break up and now
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we have that confirmed for our breaking structure as we are clearly closing
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above so let's have a super quick recap of the the sort of major high time
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frames um so weekly chart you guys should be very familiar with this now
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right we are stuck within this larger bullish range so
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this is a high this is clearly the low we are in demand price did try to make
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that higher high it failed to do its job so then we knew there was a high
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probability that this week weekly low was likely to get run right and price
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was likely to take that out now price has done that and we started to retrace
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so we are showing bullish signals right there's obviously still going to be some
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demand left within this zone um however you know we do have to be
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aware that price did try to do its job and now it's come down and it's taken
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out the reaction so you know really in theory anywhere within this entire buy
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to sell range is actually a weekly flip supply zone right to take us slower so
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it's getting a little bit messy but i wouldn't worry about that too much for
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now right getting too caught up in the higher time frames in terms of you know
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which way this is going to go let's just keep stretching nice and simple we've
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swept a weak low and we are still within the bullish range and at the moment the
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lower time frames are starting to break to the upside so at a minimum we can
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start to play a bit of a weekly reaction with the potential that we may be coming
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up right to take out this high right because it failed to take out the low
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and potentially make that higher high um up there right
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the only thing again that's in in form of the bearish case is we are coming off
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this pretty strong weekly supply zone at the top of the range so you know there
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is potential we could have a short-term reaction and we could start to break
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lower and switch bearish but as always i have no idea i don't have a crystal
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ball i don't need to know which way price is going to go in order to make
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decent money right we just stack the properties in our favor and we keep it
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as mechanical as possible and at the moment the weekly is still bullish the
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lower time frames are starting to break to the upside so i'm happy to trade pro
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trend in that higher time frame bullish direction whilst being very cognizant
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and aware of the fact that this move could be short-lived and we may actually
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come down and take out these weekly lows so from a daily chart perspective um we
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swept liquidity again we don't need to worry about too much about that just now
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but then i created a really strong demand zone that then led to the break
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of that structure price has now come back almost filled right mitigated the
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eq and obviously doesn't have to markets aren't perfect but it's a pretty decent
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sign and then we came up and we took out this daily high here now this daily high
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here it's a little bit of a tricky one in terms of whether you call that a
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swing pull back or a minor pull back on the daily high it's obviously definitely
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a four hour swing high um but it's you know it's not overly convincing whether
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that's a major daily swing high in my opinion so i'd be more looking at kind
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of price action like this where we have a clear lower low lower high and then a
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bit more of a convincing swing break like that so this high here this mine
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high maybe should be used for liquidity just like this one was here to sweep
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that and then we may form that large level high and then roll off to the
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downside and then we may actually get that weekly bearish trend change but
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regardless of whether you view it as a a true swing high or not um you know
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that is a decent uh sign there that price is starting to show those
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bullish intentions right after mitigating it mitigating that daily area
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of demand because remember we had this daily area of supply price came in
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reacted and pushed up through so even the daily showing you that flip zone
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showing you you know that demand is starting to take control
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so dropping down to the four-hour chart as we've just kind of already been over
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this price action we were bearish we came up to kind of nearer the origin
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that supply zone demand side to take control right it took out the reaction
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and then that led to that break of structure so now that we have a
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four-hour break of structure what is the next thing we expect well we expect a
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four-hour pullback okay how can we know when that four-hour pullback um may be
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you know somewhere where that may start to kick in well we can look left at old
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areas of supply right so we kind of have this
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entire let's draw this up this entire four-hour range here um
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which you know it's a bit more messy of one but it is technically a flip zone
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because we do have this entire cell before the buy um which you can see you
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know it's some massive zone so you know there's gonna be quite quite a few flip
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zones within this right um but essentially that's where that first sort
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of big reaction starts to happen and then fell here right so it's a big
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candle i'm gonna refine it a little bit more um to this inside bar but even that
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doesn't really get engulfed so what you can do is be even be a little bit more
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accurate and refine that to the four hour wick along here um so we still got
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a decent enough space right to start to kind of target that
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to try and push the flower a little bit more so this is something you have to be
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aware of right when you get for instance let's say the four hour break of
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structure although we expect a four-hour pullback
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that doesn't mean that the moment you have a four-hour break structure you
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have to sit on your hands right you can still keep trading long it's just that
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you have to manage your expectations of how far to push any lungs you're in
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because you have to be aware that at any point this could start to pull back
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right so you know again if this was the daily and we start to get a daily
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breaker structure yes we expect a daily pullback but it could go on for multiple
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days before that pullback kicks in right it just means you have to manage your
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expectations of how far to push it so four hours bullish we have a breakage
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structure um there's potential price can go a little bit further so if we get
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some intraday opportunities to go along yeah we can start to do that with a very
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clear target of where potentially we may want to start to partial out any profits
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that may be running um and go start to take our profits or even potentially
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look for some shorts to play that four-hour pullback so with the 15-minute
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chart obviously clearly bullish as well let's just draw on some structure so we
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can see what's going on um it's always worth if you're doing this in live
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market or even when you're back testing just to go back you know a few sort of
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phases in price action and just paint the story to see what happens so we had
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that pull back right this was the low price tried to come down and take out
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that low but we can see we failed to close above it so at that point we are
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still bullish and then we come up and take out that high to then form another
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high and yeah we are starting to pull back so let's just play this forward a
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little bit and see if we can essentially what i'll be looking at at this point
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right is i know this is kind of how i'd be talking to
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myself in the market right as i was just saying the fire chart
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we've had that break of structure we are bullish so i'm expecting a four hour
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pullback but i'm going to try and push to see if we can take advantage of this
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next leg up to that area of supply right so what i'll be looking for in the
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15-minute chart is for price to pull back to an area of demand 15-minute
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demand for me to then look to get long so already what i can see is we've had a
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bit more of a minor pullback if i just measure this in pips
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it's not even 10 pips so i wouldn't really classify that as swing structure
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i would classify more of that as just kind of a
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minor breaker structure to the upside so it's still valuable information um we
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have created an m15 demand zone um it's you know it's
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not a swing break of structure so it's not the most significant of the monitors
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in the world but it is there right so momentum is clearly strong um you know i
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can be more than happy to be reasonably aggressive if i get sort of my lower
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timeframe confirmations to look for potential higher lows within here okay
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so let's put this forward a little bit more and wait for price to start to come
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back down into our m15 supply zone right so we can see price starting to pull
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back and this is where i'll just be waiting
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patiently set your alerts you know you don't have to be watching price action
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um minute by minute okay so now price is starting to pull back so this is where
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i'd start to be on sort of high alert right looking for to see potentially are
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we going to react from this area are we going to get a nice 15 minute high low
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to look for longs or potentially maybe we're going to have a bit of a deeper
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pullback because for me i would be viewing that as my swing lower right
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it's the lowest point i took out that recent swing high and now we're starting
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to initiate a bit more of a pullback so really we're playing with this entire
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m15 range and remember if we mark on our premium discount um
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you know ideally i want to be buying in a discount but as you guys have probably
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seen from your testing price does not always pull back especially momentum is
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quite strong so yeah higher probability to be buying down here but if i get my
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confirmations i'm happy to be a bit more aggressive and buy higher up in this
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bullish swing leg here right so i'm not just blindly putting entries on here of
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course you can do that but i'd rather you know
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boost my strike rate a bit more by looking to see if this zone is going to
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hold by looking at the lower timeframes first and seeing if i get my
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confirmations okay boom right what's happened with
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that next 15 minute candle is we've seen a very aggressive retrace right it's
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fully retraced that candle um and it's moved even higher so
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generally what i'll do in the live market is if i have a refined 15 minute
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zone to a candle right the price doesn't hit it but then i see you know what
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looks to be a lot of demand being filled and a big aggressive move away then this
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is where you can just you know read between the lines a little bit and go
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okay well what i've actually done here is that is technically right that entire
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buy before the sale that's the whole range i had refined it all the way to
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the candle but price doesn't have to move away from my refined zone right it
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could be you know um the the more of the double kind of right
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the pivot uh the sell before the buy that took the high because remember
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price doesn't know time time doesn't know price we're just trying to read the
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order book through the price action on the candles that we see on our charts
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because remember what is those two candles those two bearish candles before
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the move that broke the high well it's likely on a higher time frame just going
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to be that yeah see it's just one bearish candle before they move up if we
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jump on the 30 minute time frame now you can cycle through every single time
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frame if you want and draw on you know tons of zones
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i'm not personally a big fan of that i'd rather kind of just have my kind of set
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time frames and just understand what is going on here so that's why we spent
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time looking you know in the in the smd zone creation video i believe it's
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called what we understand now we can have the
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most unrefined which is the whole range we can take it time to the pivot right
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there's multiple candles or even one candle or even the fractal refinement
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but we just have to understand that although the fractal refinement will be
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a bit more accurate it's sometimes you know price isn't always going to
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initially come straight down to there and move away so
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kind of the mini lesson from this right is if you see if you have a refined zone
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right and you see price aggressively move away you don't have to but if
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you're happy to do so i personally am i'm happy to be a bit more loose with my
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larger ranges because what i'm going to do is then jump down to the lower time
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frames and then look for my confirmations right so i'm aware that
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although we've had a reaction price could still come down lower i want to
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mitigate this first before it goes so what am i going to do well i'm going to
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jump down to lower time frames and see if price wants to actually go from here
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if it is ready to go right so as we can see from this kind of larger 30 minute
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range we've had a very aggressive move on the one minute
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so let's just play this forward a little bit so it's a bit more subtle but what i
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can see is this kind of major m1 sort of swing high up here price came up it
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tried to break up high it didn't close above but we did wick it so if we look
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again on the 15 minute chart all right what is that well actually it's kind of
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that bullish sub structure wick break right it's that kind of bullish change
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of character kind of just another indication that potentially this is the
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m15 high low and it is trying to break up higher so a bit of a subtle thing
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there but it is just another tick in the box that potentially this is going to be
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the low and this lower won't break and we are ready to go so
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where can we look to potentially buy well the most sort of obvious zone right
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would be the m1 extreme demand um right at the bottom of the origin this move
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that broke up higher right it took out multiple m1 levels over here right so
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it's a pretty decent strong zone right we can clearly see the momentum
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that stepped in um during the london session right um nested within
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that larger high time frame to mars over here so there's kind of two ways you can
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do this one you literally either set your limit order anywhere on or within
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the zone stop below the low right so even 1.5 pip stop
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you may want to give it a little bit more buffer um but yeah that you know
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looks pretty safe here and you can literally just set your limit order
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there but i'm going to wait for a little bit more confirmation just to make sure
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that the zone is going to hold and potentially we're not going to come
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lower into that you know that one single candle uh refined m15 demand zone um
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also another thing as well is we'll talk about this a bit more in the liquidity
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module but it's always also potentially worth mentioning now
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is when you see a reasonably clean almost vertical straight push-up like
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that a lot of the times what can happen is price can come down and it can end up
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just taking out the zone and it can be a bit of a full signal so it's kind of to
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do with liquidity we'll talk about that a bit more in there now
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again it's just probabilities it's not a certainty you have to do this for your
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own testing and finding to see how you get on with these pretty clean pushes um
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because they also do play out um quite a few times as well so in this case this
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is where you can look for a little bit more confirmation if you some have
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some hesitations or doubts about this zone holding so
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what essentially i'm going to do is instead of looking to just kind of set
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my limit order on the zone because if you hadn't done that right you'd be
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tagged in now i'm going to wait for a little bit more confirmation so what do
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i actually mean by that when i say confirmation
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and it just goes back to you know all of the examples that we've been looking uh
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before on all of you know the theory videos of literally just waiting for
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market structure to again change character in my favor i want to see that
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bullish break but what also can we use we can look to see where supply starts
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to fail and demand starts to take control so at the moment we can see
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right with the more recent price action we can see those pullbacks right
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supplies in control we are pretty much bearish on the recent m1 price action so
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what's happening now is price has come up into this it's a bit more of a
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fractal refinement but we can clearly see right there with supply that then
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took out that low price has come back into here and it's reacted and it's
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pushed down lower so at this point what i'll be saying to myself is okay
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we've tapped into supply that is where the reaction is i'll be marking out the
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top of that reaction point and what i would want to see is price come back up
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and break above that reaction point to show me that the reaction has failed and
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ideally get that change of character as well okay so let's play this forward and
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see what happens so at this point supply still in control and then boom we take
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out that low okay so actually in fact this supply here has done its job it's
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come down lower now we're trying to fill up more orders within the eq of this m1
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demand zone so now again what i'll be looking at is
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i'll see this area of m1 supply and i want to see price react and take out the
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supply zone and also take out that minor high to give us our change of character
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so now we can see we've had a pretty strong reaction but we've just managed
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to spike below that low all right taking out this internal
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demand so again that is showing me that supply is still in control so now i'm
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literally just going to evolve um my zone towards uh this most recent zone
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here and again just following the exact same
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process so price has pulled into it i want to see a reaction just to make sure
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that it's validating the supply zone right i don't want to just see price
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smash straight up through the reaction is key okay boom there's your bearish
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reaction so now literally if i'm in a live market minute by minute this is
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what i'll be doing this exact same process just constantly readjusting my
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analysis and waiting to see that price action model um that we need to see so
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prices come into supply it's reacted now what i want to see is price break above
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that and show me that the reaction has failed okay so price has gone a little
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bit lower but we haven't taken up the low yet so now what's happening is we're
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just ranging between the high and the low and we're having that battle right
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between supply and demand so remember supply is going to do its job it needs
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to take out this low here so we tried to come up but we still
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haven't taken out the reaction just yet all right still having that battle still
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having that battle okay we've gone lower but we still haven't taken out this low
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all right so nothing yet sitting patiently on my hands just waiting for
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price action and then boom okay what's happened we have broken up above and
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closed above that reaction point and we have also broken above that minor high
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so we now have that m1 change of character so what this means is demand
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somewhere has stepped in to not only take out right the supply zone because
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price has pulled in reacted it's we just draw it we've pulled in we've
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reacted we've failed to take out that low right so then demand has stepped in
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to not only take out the reaction to cause the reaction to fail but it's also
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taken out that structural high so now we have that change of character
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now one little point before we go any further
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is um kind of talking about mapping types
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for your failed reaction so for me personally
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as you guys will know for denoting true swing breaks of structure so i know
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where my swing highs and swing lows are i use type 1 mapping i want to see a
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candle closure above or below a higher low right but for changes of character
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i'm happy to use type two all i'm happy to see is a wick break right i can be a
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little bit more aggressive with it now you're gonna have to ask yourself um you
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know what is in your trade plan for how you define a failed reaction so this is
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the dotted line right where the reaction started and once price breaks above it
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that is when the reaction fails but you need to decide for you does it make more
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sense to have just a wick break are you happy with that or do you want to see a
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candle closure above that dotted line like we have here okay
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now some people want to use type 1 which is the kind of closure because it's um
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more more confluence it's more conservative because obviously it's a
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more convincing sign if price manages to break and close above
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other people are just happy with a wick break and the reason why they're happy
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with just a wick break right so the price spiked up above that dotted line
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and then closed back down is because on the m1 that wick break on a lower time
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frame right if we were to jump down to 15 seconds probably would actually have
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had a candle closure on the 15 seconds above that high right and then price
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would come back in right and then fill up that demand and then go
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so i'm not going to tell you which way is
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right or wrong it's going to be excuse me it's going to be down to you
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to decide what you have more success with what gives you the higher strike
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rate what makes more sense to you and that will just come with time experience
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and data collection right when we go through the testing which i'll show you
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how to do later in the course um you can start to figure this out right um but
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what i would say is if you just want a starting point because i know it can be
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a bit frustrating when there's all these open-ended questions you may have
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the starting point i would give you is to always wait for a candle closure um
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above the reaction point to confirm you have your failed reaction just because
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that's a bit more conservative and that in theory should boost your strike rate
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so yeah i would use for your failed reaction type one mapping candle
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closures right that body break above the higher the low just to give you that at
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that higher um higher strike rate right in theory so
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just to kind of go back over this right what have we done
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00:18:43,120 --> 00:18:46,799
we are with the four hour bullish trend we've had a four hour break of structure
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right which was this line back here so we know that a four hour pullback can
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occur at any point in time right so
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we have identified an area of supply that we can look to target right because
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this is a bit more likely where potentially that for our pullback may
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start and we can still take advantage of you know the next 20 pips or so right so
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00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:11,360
that doesn't sound a lot but as you've just seen when we can get in with three
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00:19:11,360 --> 00:19:16,000
two one point five even one pip stops right that's a a decent amount of r to
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take advantage of so we've waited for price to pull back into our area of
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demand we've seen that aggressive move away we've seen that 15 minute change of
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character and price has pulled back into our area on the lower time frames and
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we're starting to look to get along right so if we drop down to the one
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minute we then identified a very clean area of demand but you know we could
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have just wiped the limit order on but we waited for a bit more confirmation we
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waited for demand to start to step in right to cause supply to fail and to get
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that change of character to the upside right so we had those lower lows and
319
00:19:44,320 --> 00:19:48,400
lower highs right rejecting supply it held pulled back into supply it held it
320
00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:52,080
made that lower low we then came into the most recent area supply it reacted
321
00:19:52,080 --> 00:19:55,520
it tries to do its job and then that reaction failed and market structure
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failed right that bearish market structure failed and we now have bullish
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market structure with that change of character so now it is all systems go to
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00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:08,480
look for a potential long trade so what caused that failed reaction what caused
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that change of character well anywhere within this cell before the buy is
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technically where the the demand stepped in so the most unrefined way of looking
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for that demand zone is just taking that entire m1 range right so i'm just going
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00:20:20,799 --> 00:20:23,840
to use that parallel channel just because that's typically what i use
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in the live market so now what you can do is the most unrefined way is to just
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enter anywhere on or within the zone right and then have your stop just below
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the low so let's say that gives us 2.5 pips right
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00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:39,200
um and then you would literally have been tagged in with the next candle so
333
00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:42,240
this is where you need to be pretty quick if you were doing this on the m1
334
00:20:42,240 --> 00:20:45,280
time frame but of course we get a few more opportunities couple minutes so
335
00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:49,360
that it taps in again fills up my orders before we get that true move so yeah
336
00:20:49,360 --> 00:20:52,240
that's pretty much it in a nutshell that is literally what we are doing to get
337
00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:56,240
those entries and we're looking for the same thing again and again and again now
338
00:20:56,240 --> 00:20:59,200
before i play this a little bit further and start to look at targets and stuff
339
00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:02,720
i do just want to show you a bit more of a refined way of how you could have got
340
00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:05,600
in it is a little bit more advanced so you know don't worry this is the first
341
00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:08,640
time you're seeing this it might seem a little bit confusing but i promise you
342
00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:11,600
you will get this in time so if we just look at the price
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00:21:11,600 --> 00:21:14,960
action the example we just looked at right is taking the whole cell to buy
344
00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:18,640
range but how could we refine it even more well we could take that sell to buy
345
00:21:18,640 --> 00:21:21,919
candle right but doesn't make it too much smaller but what we can always look
346
00:21:21,919 --> 00:21:24,159
for is
347
00:21:24,159 --> 00:21:28,960
where was the last point of demand that stepped into the market in order to
348
00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:32,000
cause the failed reaction and the change of character right so obviously this is
349
00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:35,200
where we got that confirmation but where was the last point of demand that
350
00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:38,320
stepped in to cause that move well as we can see what happened we had this
351
00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:41,760
bullish candle right then we whipped back so we had that pullback on the
352
00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:45,440
lower time frame and then boom that's where the demand stepped in right so
353
00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:48,960
those sell to buy wicks show us that lower timeframe pullback and then that's
354
00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:53,280
where the demand stepped in so what you can do on the m1 time frame right is
355
00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:56,480
potentially read what's going on on that lower time frame
356
00:21:56,480 --> 00:21:59,280
and then that is your front door refinement and then what that means is
357
00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:03,120
you can enter right on there and you can be a bit more aggressive with your stop
358
00:22:03,120 --> 00:22:05,919
right i definitely wouldn't go low on the pip really especially when you're
359
00:22:05,919 --> 00:22:09,679
starting out i would say a minimum 1.5 pips or even really a minimum two just
360
00:22:09,679 --> 00:22:12,559
in case price can come lower and still reject you know something within this
361
00:22:12,559 --> 00:22:16,080
wick okay there's no guarantee but i'm just going to show you
362
00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:20,080
what essentially you have done is on the m1 really lower time frame because
363
00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:24,559
if we jump down to the 15 seconds right you can see that was the cell before the
364
00:22:24,559 --> 00:22:27,120
buy that broke the high obviously you'd want to find that a little bit more
365
00:22:27,120 --> 00:22:29,679
accurately to that cell before the buy there
366
00:22:29,679 --> 00:22:32,720
and then if you had the 15 seconds you can then trade with confidence even with
367
00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:36,880
a one pip stop let's just say 1.5 pip stops below that range there and that's
368
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:40,720
essentially what you were reading now i want to make this very very
369
00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:44,720
crystal clear you do not need the seconds time frame in order to be
370
00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:48,480
extremely consistently profitable okay you you do not need it in fact i would
371
00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:53,520
advise you still the hate still still kind of get my words out i advise you
372
00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:57,360
stay the hell away from the second time frames because until you get a lot more
373
00:22:57,360 --> 00:23:00,559
experience until you really nail down your higher time frame zones and
374
00:23:00,559 --> 00:23:05,039
understanding even m1 price action if you're looking at the 15 seconds
375
00:23:05,039 --> 00:23:08,240
you're just going to see a hell of a lot more full signals and it's really not
376
00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:12,080
worth it okay the whole point of me showing you this is just kind of just
377
00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:16,400
purely a price action exercise just to show you what is going on from a fractal
378
00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:19,600
point of view right on one time frame but remember this can apply to any
379
00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:22,960
timeframe you could be on the four hour and you can see this price action and
380
00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:26,799
then you would just be basically looking at those four hour sell to buy wicks and
381
00:23:26,799 --> 00:23:30,159
just understanding what is likely going on on say the 15 minute time frame rate
382
00:23:30,159 --> 00:23:33,440
it's just the same thing again and again and again
383
00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:37,440
anyway let's leave that there so now what i would do is start to look for
384
00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:42,000
refined targets so at a minimum right we can start to look for price to target
385
00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:45,200
this 15 minute week high right here to see if we can get the higher high
386
00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:48,880
because price then may start to pull back um or we can start to look for to
387
00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:52,559
push price even further up towards this four hour area supply but what we can do
388
00:23:52,559 --> 00:23:56,240
is try and refine that a little bit more and what i'll often do is then if i'm on
389
00:23:56,240 --> 00:23:59,840
the four hours i'll drop into that zone on the 15 minute and see if i can refine
390
00:23:59,840 --> 00:24:04,640
this zone even more so let's just kind of paint the story back a little bit and
391
00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:08,799
what can we see so price pulls back it takes out this high here right so we
392
00:24:08,799 --> 00:24:12,640
have this demand zone this 15 minute demand zone and we drag that across what
393
00:24:12,640 --> 00:24:15,840
happens price temple's back into that demand zone it tries to make a higher
394
00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:20,400
high right it reacts and then supply steps in to take out that reaction so
395
00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:25,440
technically all of this by before the self price action is the supply zone
396
00:24:25,440 --> 00:24:29,679
that caused that reaction to fail and led to that break of structure over here
397
00:24:29,679 --> 00:24:32,480
but we can see you know i don't want to just take that whole range and also you
398
00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:35,200
know a lot of it's mitigated with this price section here so actually i'm just
399
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:38,080
going to refine that to the last buy before the cell
400
00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:42,080
at the top here and then drag that across and then that way we've refined
401
00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:46,240
our four-hour zone uh a little bit more just to potentially
402
00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:50,240
give us not only increased accuracy for looking for targets but also to
403
00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:54,640
potentially um you know increase our accuracy for playing a potential for our
404
00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:59,679
pullback if price action uh yeah starts to break down so let's just jump back
405
00:24:59,679 --> 00:25:08,000
down to the one minute um and play price forward a little bit
406
00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:14,799
so let's speed this up a little bit so we can see now let me zoom out okay now
407
00:25:14,799 --> 00:25:17,840
we've definitely taken out that 15 minute high right so you could start to
408
00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:20,960
potentially take some profits but just for the sake of this example right i
409
00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:23,279
don't want to talk about management too much just now because we will cover this
410
00:25:23,279 --> 00:25:26,080
in a lot more depth i'm just kind of giving you some loose hard time frame
411
00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:28,880
targets here that you can think about so we're seeing
412
00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:32,960
some volatility prices chopping around nothing to do at this stage sit on your
413
00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:35,919
hands and then price moves up into our four-hour zone right so that could be
414
00:25:35,919 --> 00:25:39,200
your first decent profit target just over 10r or we could push this even
415
00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:43,360
further and see if price is going to try and go up towards that 15-minute zone
416
00:25:43,360 --> 00:25:45,760
now what i'll start doing right if i'm in
417
00:25:45,760 --> 00:25:49,120
the live market there's this point even if i'm in a long position obviously i'm
418
00:25:49,120 --> 00:25:52,720
biased for price to the upside but you have to forget about that in terms of
419
00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:57,039
your analysis right you need to try and keep your mindset as neutral as possible
420
00:25:57,039 --> 00:25:59,679
so i'm just going to drag these zones across
421
00:25:59,679 --> 00:26:03,919
just to help with my chart ocd just so i can see exactly what's going on
422
00:26:03,919 --> 00:26:06,880
but to go back to the more important point of what i was saying is even if
423
00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:09,919
you're in a long position you're obviously biased to go to the upside you
424
00:26:09,919 --> 00:26:12,640
know your subconscious is going to be running with emotions thinking about
425
00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:16,080
that money you're making but what you can start to do is go okay i know i've
426
00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:19,120
had the four hour break of structure i know i'm expecting a four-hour pullback
427
00:26:19,120 --> 00:26:23,120
we are now entering that four-hour refined area of supply right we've
428
00:26:23,120 --> 00:26:27,200
identified an even more refined area with the m15 but price does not have to
429
00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:30,960
reach it right for before potentially that four-hour pullback may occur we
430
00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:34,480
could literally tap the edge of this and start to go so what i'm going to start
431
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:38,320
to be doing is just looking for signs of weakness looking for signs that price is
432
00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:41,840
starting to fall to the downside looking for those breaks of those bearish bricks
433
00:26:41,840 --> 00:26:46,240
of structure or looking for demand failing and supply starting to take
434
00:26:46,240 --> 00:26:50,880
control so as we can see so far the m1 is clearly you know bullish it's still
435
00:26:50,880 --> 00:26:55,120
making higher highs and higher lows and demand is still in control so having
436
00:26:55,120 --> 00:26:59,440
this minor pull back here and now we have tapped into that m15 refined supply
437
00:26:59,440 --> 00:27:03,919
right for just under 15 r if you had you know that 1.5 pip stop there so i'm just
438
00:27:03,919 --> 00:27:05,840
going to move that out of the way and let's just forget about the long trade
439
00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:10,880
for a minute and let's see if we can start to potentially look for
440
00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:14,320
um you know that for our pullback now because we've tapped into a refined
441
00:27:14,320 --> 00:27:18,480
supply zone right the m15 within what is already a refined four hour zone right
442
00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:22,320
because remember we refined that entire four-hour range to just a four-hour wick
443
00:27:22,320 --> 00:27:26,720
now you can start to potentially be a lot more aggressive with how much
444
00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:30,320
uh bearish price action you want to see before you're happy to trade short
445
00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:33,679
because obviously you know if you if you trade every sort of m1 breaker stretch
446
00:27:33,679 --> 00:27:37,679
to the downside you can take a hell of a lot of full signals right you could get
447
00:27:37,679 --> 00:27:40,159
short and the price can just keep going up and up and up and you can take a lot
448
00:27:40,159 --> 00:27:44,320
of losses so one of the safest sort of ways to prevent that
449
00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:47,279
and something i'll advise you guys especially if you're starting out is to
450
00:27:47,279 --> 00:27:51,760
wait for say a m15 change of character right you'd want to see an m15 minor
451
00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:55,120
logo first before you start to look to play short
452
00:27:55,120 --> 00:27:58,720
just to increase that probability okay but because we found a really nice
453
00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:01,440
refined supply zone and you know just for the sake of this example i just want
454
00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:05,600
to show you what can be possible and let's just look for that first sign of
455
00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:08,960
the m1 switching bearer so we tapped it to refine zone and this is where i'm
456
00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:11,200
going to be you know really paying attention to the detail of what is going
457
00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:15,039
on because we've had a minor pullback right so we've had that minor high get
458
00:28:15,039 --> 00:28:19,760
taken so now for me this would be a minor the most recent minor m1 low so
459
00:28:19,760 --> 00:28:23,520
i'd be looking to see is that logan hold is this cell before the buy this bearish
460
00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:27,520
candle going to hold and is demand going to stay in control
461
00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:30,399
so we pull back into it now you can see that bullish reaction right we're
462
00:28:30,399 --> 00:28:33,360
filling up that demand within here so it'll be a bit more clear in the lower
463
00:28:33,360 --> 00:28:36,960
time frame because we've taken high we've pulled back we're now reacting
464
00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:39,760
right to this demand zone and we're trying to make a higher high so let's
465
00:28:39,760 --> 00:28:43,360
see if price can do its job and make the higher high okay boom so now we've
466
00:28:43,360 --> 00:28:47,679
dropped to the downside right so enjoy in fact i'll show you what's
467
00:28:47,679 --> 00:28:50,000
happened here because we can see what's happening on one right we've had we've
468
00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:53,760
taken high we've taken the low we've had that change of character but what have
469
00:28:53,760 --> 00:28:57,279
we also had right we've had that reaction to demand that buy to sell wix
470
00:28:57,279 --> 00:29:01,919
but then it's failed and supply has taken to control right so if i draw this
471
00:29:01,919 --> 00:29:05,120
on the m1 all right those buy to sell wix and i'll
472
00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:08,799
just draw this for our sort of m1 right change of character
473
00:29:08,799 --> 00:29:12,399
because i draw the same right we took that high then we took the low
474
00:29:12,399 --> 00:29:15,520
we tried to react we tried to make a higher high and then boom we stepped in
475
00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:19,120
right and what's even better more confluence is we've taken out this sort
476
00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:22,320
of more minor low as well so you know even if you weren't sure
477
00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:25,760
because you're only looking at one price action we tapped into a refined supply
478
00:29:25,760 --> 00:29:29,039
within a refined for our supply we've had a change of character we can see
479
00:29:29,039 --> 00:29:32,720
that flip within there but then not only that just look at the momentum right
480
00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:36,000
that is big money stepping in right now there's a lot of supply that's come in
481
00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:39,279
so i'm just going to quickly show you on the 15 second just so it's potentially a
482
00:29:39,279 --> 00:29:41,840
little bit clearer all right you can see that true breaker
483
00:29:41,840 --> 00:29:45,679
structure it closed above the high then we would have had this as your
484
00:29:45,679 --> 00:29:50,640
essentially your 15 uh second uh demand zone so just draw that on the
485
00:29:50,640 --> 00:29:54,000
m1 right price has come in it's reacted it's tried to make a higher high and
486
00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:57,039
then we have our supply zone so you could even refine the sun even further
487
00:29:57,039 --> 00:30:00,399
to that wick but i'm not gonna over refine it i'm at this point let's just
488
00:30:00,399 --> 00:30:05,039
stick to the m1 price action right and that is what is going on so now you
489
00:30:05,039 --> 00:30:08,960
can look to um yeah sell from this area so let's just keep it pretty unrefined
490
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:12,159
don't be conservative this one two pips just give it a little bit more space
491
00:30:12,159 --> 00:30:15,760
above the zone and let's see how price action develops
492
00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:19,279
so we've had that very very aggressive move away and this is exactly what i see
493
00:30:19,279 --> 00:30:22,960
now a nice corrective slow pullback showing me that you know demand isn't
494
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:26,559
really too um too much in control and supply
495
00:30:26,559 --> 00:30:31,200
should hopefully now be in control to facilitate that four-hour
496
00:30:31,200 --> 00:30:34,480
pullback as you can see we've now been tapped in
497
00:30:34,480 --> 00:30:38,159
so we can start to do what in terms of targets right we need to be a bit more
498
00:30:38,159 --> 00:30:41,279
aggressive because obviously we're playing a counter higher timeframe train
499
00:30:41,279 --> 00:30:44,240
pullback but we can start to look at the m15 low
500
00:30:44,240 --> 00:30:47,760
let's see up here all right so first kind of real targets
501
00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:50,640
will be into around these areas here right because there's obviously still
502
00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:54,640
going to be m15 demand right where price could pull back but
503
00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:58,399
we have to realize is because we are coming off a four hour supply zone and
504
00:30:58,399 --> 00:31:02,240
we are expecting a four-hour pullback it's likely that these lows can start to
505
00:31:02,240 --> 00:31:06,640
go and we may pull back to where back into this four-hour area of demand down
506
00:31:06,640 --> 00:31:10,159
here right so that's where i would be starting um to look to target but let's
507
00:31:10,159 --> 00:31:14,240
just jump back to the m1 and just see how price action starts to develop as we
508
00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:16,960
are within this trade because don't worry we'll talk about management in a
509
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:20,480
much more depth later on so still within a trade
510
00:31:20,480 --> 00:31:24,480
right price hasn't taken out the most recent m1 low yet it's battling it's
511
00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:27,600
battling it's battling and then we start to go
512
00:31:27,600 --> 00:31:31,360
so we get another break of the low now in the live market i won't mark out
513
00:31:31,360 --> 00:31:34,640
every single n1 breaker structure i find it a bit unnecessary but we'll just you
514
00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:38,240
know do this for the sake of the example um so yeah we place forward a little bit
515
00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:42,240
more and what we can see is m1 supply starting the whole right
516
00:31:42,240 --> 00:31:45,120
because we've broken structure we've pulled back into the decisional we've
517
00:31:45,120 --> 00:31:50,640
reacted and we're pushing lower now you know especially counter trend it's a
518
00:31:50,640 --> 00:31:53,440
little bit more aggressive when you're playing pullbacks but you don't
519
00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:56,399
necessarily just want to take every m1 breaker structure and start selling
520
00:31:56,399 --> 00:32:00,399
every m1 supply zone right you can do it please test it see if it works for you
521
00:32:00,399 --> 00:32:03,600
but it is a bit more aggressive especially counter trend so what can we
522
00:32:03,600 --> 00:32:07,840
do to increase the probability of these m1 supply zones holding when
523
00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:10,880
playing a counter trend move well instead of just looking for ones that
524
00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:14,799
cause breaks of structure we can look for ones that cause flip zones so this
525
00:32:14,799 --> 00:32:18,640
is where previous demand zones in the leg we can then use to our advantage
526
00:32:18,640 --> 00:32:22,000
right so if we look over here where we have this m1 demand zone
527
00:32:22,000 --> 00:32:26,000
right and we drag it across we can look to see is this going to hold and then
528
00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:29,679
are we going to start to break to the upside right or is supply going to stay
529
00:32:29,679 --> 00:32:32,399
in control because we have had just another
530
00:32:32,399 --> 00:32:35,519
breaker structure down here right
531
00:32:35,519 --> 00:32:39,120
so we do have another m1 supplies in here but like i was saying i don't just
532
00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:41,919
necessarily want to sell everyone everyone's supply zone they've caused a
533
00:32:41,919 --> 00:32:45,200
break of structure you can do it but they're a little bit lower probability
534
00:32:45,200 --> 00:32:49,440
than if we can get breaks of structure and a flip zone so that's personally
535
00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:53,679
what i want to see okay so demand has now reacted we're starting to
536
00:32:53,679 --> 00:32:57,120
pull back so it's gonna be interesting to see is demand going to win or is
537
00:32:57,120 --> 00:33:00,399
supply going to win so we tap into our supply zone
538
00:33:00,399 --> 00:33:02,960
right we're still battling we're battling we're battling right which
539
00:33:02,960 --> 00:33:06,159
one's going to win supply demand still battling let's fast forward this a
540
00:33:06,159 --> 00:33:09,039
little bit and then boom we come lower right so we have to fill up a little bit
541
00:33:09,039 --> 00:33:12,960
a few more orders within zone but we never broke up higher right and now
542
00:33:12,960 --> 00:33:17,279
we've gone down so what's happening we've rejected our refined supply we've
543
00:33:17,279 --> 00:33:20,480
had multiple breaks of stretches the downside right we had our nice flip zone
544
00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:25,360
up here we can see supply is starting to to be mitigated right
545
00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:29,440
suppliers in control we're seeing that series of bearish order flow old demand
546
00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:33,519
has just facilitated that pullback but ultimately supplies taken in control so
547
00:33:33,519 --> 00:33:38,159
now what do we have we have an m1 failed reaction
548
00:33:38,159 --> 00:33:42,159
right boom so what that means is anywhere within
549
00:33:42,159 --> 00:33:46,240
this whole buy to sell range is essentially your demand
550
00:33:46,240 --> 00:33:49,679
to supply flip but i just don't want to sell anywhere within here i'm going to
551
00:33:49,679 --> 00:33:54,000
refine that to our candle up here just because i don't want a massive stop and
552
00:33:54,000 --> 00:33:57,279
i want to refine my wrist sword as much as possible when playing those more
553
00:33:57,279 --> 00:34:01,440
aggressive uh for our you know counter trend moves and you know we don't even
554
00:34:01,440 --> 00:34:05,120
have an m15 change of character just yet so the reason why i'd be happy to sell
555
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:08,879
from here right even though it is a bit more aggressive is one
556
00:34:08,879 --> 00:34:11,760
because of the area we're coming off from we have a series of mitigations
557
00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:15,200
right a series of bearish order flow so it's showing that supplier is in control
558
00:34:15,200 --> 00:34:18,960
but not only now do we have that break of structure here this is also a failed
559
00:34:18,960 --> 00:34:24,240
reaction from this demand zone right so if price was to come up right and break
560
00:34:24,240 --> 00:34:26,879
up higher then it's very likely we're just going to keep on going right
561
00:34:26,879 --> 00:34:30,320
because now um you know that bearish order flow has been broken and demand
562
00:34:30,320 --> 00:34:33,280
would then be back in control so this is kind of the last point of supply that
563
00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:38,639
needs to hold if this pullback is going to continue south and continue uh
564
00:34:38,639 --> 00:34:44,000
bearish so let's play this forward and see if price will tag us in or not
565
00:34:44,000 --> 00:34:47,839
so now we're within trade right and then boom very very nice reaction and the
566
00:34:47,839 --> 00:34:50,480
reason why we got that reaction is just because of all of the confidence i just
567
00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:53,599
outlined right this is a strong area of supply it's the last point of supply
568
00:34:53,599 --> 00:34:57,040
that needs to hold right we've taken out that demand zone taken we've had that
569
00:34:57,040 --> 00:35:01,119
breaking structure as well that is a picture perfect right demand zone now in
570
00:35:01,119 --> 00:35:04,240
terms of targets like i said we're going to start to target
571
00:35:04,240 --> 00:35:07,760
um you know there's multiple targets on the way but really we're trying to play
572
00:35:07,760 --> 00:35:11,040
that steeper for our pullback so if we jump up to four hour chart hopefully
573
00:35:11,040 --> 00:35:14,560
doesn't play price action too far unfortunately it has it's the one sort
574
00:35:14,560 --> 00:35:17,599
of drawback of of bar replay and training view is as you cycle through
575
00:35:17,599 --> 00:35:20,960
the time frames it's just gonna show the entire next four hour candle which yeah
576
00:35:20,960 --> 00:35:24,000
didn't want to see price go that far um especially when you're testing because
577
00:35:24,000 --> 00:35:28,880
it can end up showing you that price does go that far but
578
00:35:28,880 --> 00:35:32,079
not to worry so yeah the four hour pullback right
579
00:35:32,079 --> 00:35:34,800
where do we know that price can pull back well it'd be the next sort of four
580
00:35:34,800 --> 00:35:39,359
hour demand zone where that supply sorry where that demand may step in for price
581
00:35:39,359 --> 00:35:42,960
to form that higher low right so there's no guarantee that price will form a high
582
00:35:42,960 --> 00:35:45,920
low here because remember this is the swing range that we are currently
583
00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:48,640
playing within right this was the lowest point that took out that high now we're
584
00:35:48,640 --> 00:35:51,760
starting to have a more convincing pullback so this for me is that swing
585
00:35:51,760 --> 00:35:56,640
range so we could potentially expect price to pull all the way back down into
586
00:35:56,640 --> 00:35:59,520
discount right but remember price doesn't have to you guys will already
587
00:35:59,520 --> 00:36:02,400
know that from the testing you guys have already hopefully done on premium
588
00:36:02,400 --> 00:36:05,280
discount especially on the four hour chart that
589
00:36:05,280 --> 00:36:08,640
we don't have to pull down here and what was the other key thing we know is that
590
00:36:08,640 --> 00:36:11,680
when we get that first initial trend change right that change of character
591
00:36:11,680 --> 00:36:15,119
that first initial break of structure um especially when we're coming off from a
592
00:36:15,119 --> 00:36:18,480
higher time frame level it's likely that momentum will be its highest and it's
593
00:36:18,480 --> 00:36:21,359
unlikely that we're going to pull all the way deep before we continue to go
594
00:36:21,359 --> 00:36:24,880
right usually we just get more shallow pullbacks and we go so that's the
595
00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:27,440
thought process of how i'm always thinking this in the live market we've
596
00:36:27,440 --> 00:36:30,960
had our four outbreak of structure we've mitigated our four area of supply that
597
00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:34,480
has initiated the pullback so now i'm looking at every area of demand right i
598
00:36:34,480 --> 00:36:37,599
would have all of these areas of demand drawn on and i'll be looking at any all
599
00:36:37,599 --> 00:36:41,359
of these areas as potential points for price to you know form the high low you
600
00:36:41,359 --> 00:36:43,920
know i haven't drawn every single one on but that's just to show you for an
601
00:36:43,920 --> 00:36:47,040
example so when price comes into this range
602
00:36:47,040 --> 00:36:50,000
what i'm going to be starting to do is what look for my lower timeframe
603
00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:52,800
confirmations for price to break structure to the upside to take out
604
00:36:52,800 --> 00:36:57,200
supply full demand to bin bin control to confirm this for our zone to confirm
605
00:36:57,200 --> 00:37:00,400
that before our high low may be in place and then we can look to potentially take
606
00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:03,839
that move there right but there is no guarantee we can get in long's here and
607
00:37:03,839 --> 00:37:07,440
it can react a little bit can move up but then it can just be creating you
608
00:37:07,440 --> 00:37:10,640
know liquidity if a price then come down lower and again we can look for energy
609
00:37:10,640 --> 00:37:13,359
models we can get long but again there's no guarantee that the high low's in
610
00:37:13,359 --> 00:37:16,640
place it can keep coming down before eventually it goes that is just
611
00:37:16,640 --> 00:37:20,480
something that you have to bear in mind so we have this larger for our range you
612
00:37:20,480 --> 00:37:23,200
can take the whole range you can take the cell before the buy or you know you
613
00:37:23,200 --> 00:37:26,880
could even take it to that last kind of pivot before it broke the high right it
614
00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:29,680
doesn't massively matter just in case of the example i'm just going to kind of be
615
00:37:29,680 --> 00:37:33,119
a bit more loose and put it to that last cell before the buy larger candle just
616
00:37:33,119 --> 00:37:36,720
because we're going to be looking at our lower time frame
617
00:37:36,720 --> 00:37:41,920
all right confirmations to help us with that timing so in terms of the 15 minute
618
00:37:41,920 --> 00:37:44,720
this is where you can start to try and be a bit more you know clever and look
619
00:37:44,720 --> 00:37:48,880
for refined areas of where price may come into so this is kind of that origin
620
00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:52,240
zone here but what you'll notice is price kind of already tapped that distal
621
00:37:52,240 --> 00:37:54,960
filled quite a few of the orders and went away
622
00:37:54,960 --> 00:37:58,000
now yes price could still come lower i want to mitigate you know the eq or
623
00:37:58,000 --> 00:38:01,839
further but just a bit of a warning sign that it's not fresh so it's not as high
624
00:38:01,839 --> 00:38:05,119
probability that potentially price may want to come into it
625
00:38:05,119 --> 00:38:09,040
so where's the next unmitigated area of demands that hasn't been tapped into
626
00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:11,680
that caused the next break of structure right that took out this high here where
627
00:38:11,680 --> 00:38:14,400
you could take this whole bearish candle you could take the range but i'm just
628
00:38:14,400 --> 00:38:17,920
going to try to take the origin of that wick and just have a bit more of a
629
00:38:17,920 --> 00:38:21,520
threat to refinement and what is nice about that one is it has liquidity above
630
00:38:21,520 --> 00:38:24,480
it again we'll talk about this later but if the guys already you know know about
631
00:38:24,480 --> 00:38:27,200
that or you're watching back through you'll know what i'm talking about but
632
00:38:27,200 --> 00:38:30,000
what is also a bit more of a subtle point is that i really like it when a
633
00:38:30,000 --> 00:38:34,160
refined zone lines up with the eq of a larger zone because what we know those
634
00:38:34,160 --> 00:38:37,440
eqs of those ranges is fair value they're really kind of pretty strong
635
00:38:37,440 --> 00:38:40,800
turning points for price to want to mitigate and go so i do kind of like it
636
00:38:40,800 --> 00:38:43,040
when price lines up like that but yeah it's
637
00:38:43,040 --> 00:38:47,040
definitely nothing majorly majorly significant so now we have a pretty nice
638
00:38:47,040 --> 00:38:50,079
area to target but with counter 10 trades i'm a little bit more loose and
639
00:38:50,079 --> 00:38:52,640
aggressive in my management so i probably just target kind of the edge of
640
00:38:52,640 --> 00:38:58,960
that zone i'd be happy to take the majority um yeah of my profit so
641
00:38:58,960 --> 00:39:02,240
just for the sake of time now i'm just going to speed this up a little bit uh
642
00:39:02,240 --> 00:39:06,400
and play this forward and we can see that price came into our four-hour zone
643
00:39:06,400 --> 00:39:09,839
so let's just quickly look at the risk reward if you were to take either or
644
00:39:09,839 --> 00:39:13,520
both of those positions and let's just say took off the majority of your volume
645
00:39:13,520 --> 00:39:16,000
at that four hour demands in there so you've got roughly 20 are there and
646
00:39:16,000 --> 00:39:22,240
roughly 23 that are there right not bad at all for a counter trend pullback okay
647
00:39:22,240 --> 00:39:26,079
now as prices pulled back into our first
648
00:39:26,079 --> 00:39:29,839
four hour area of demand right really we want to be focusing on those pro swing
649
00:39:29,839 --> 00:39:33,280
trade moves and we want to start to look to catch that four-hour high low all
650
00:39:33,280 --> 00:39:36,000
right so of course you could literally just enter anywhere in this four-hour
651
00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:38,240
zone and look for that move but i want to wait for a little bit more
652
00:39:38,240 --> 00:39:41,440
confirmation a little bit more refinement and increase my risk reward
653
00:39:41,440 --> 00:39:44,079
so when i'm sitting on the 15-minute chart
654
00:39:44,079 --> 00:39:47,440
what we can do is start to look for bullish signs that the 15-minute chart
655
00:39:47,440 --> 00:39:50,480
is starting to break stretches to the upside now what you'll notice is we have
656
00:39:50,480 --> 00:39:53,839
had a change of character right because we had that that low we had a minor
657
00:39:53,839 --> 00:39:57,680
pullback we made a lower low and then we took that high so that is a change of
658
00:39:57,680 --> 00:40:01,599
character there and you could start to you know look for longs within this area
659
00:40:01,599 --> 00:40:04,560
but something we haven't kind of really spoken about too much to share but is
660
00:40:04,560 --> 00:40:07,599
very very important is something called session timing
661
00:40:07,599 --> 00:40:11,599
now really the majority of the moves that occur the highest probability moves
662
00:40:11,599 --> 00:40:15,119
during the london session and the the new york session but when london is
663
00:40:15,119 --> 00:40:18,800
still open so really it's as long as london is open generally that's where
664
00:40:18,800 --> 00:40:21,119
you're going to see the highest probability moves now at this point
665
00:40:21,119 --> 00:40:25,200
where we get that change of character this is kind of around you know 7 p.m in
666
00:40:25,200 --> 00:40:28,000
the evening so that's the tail end of the new york session london has been
667
00:40:28,000 --> 00:40:31,280
closed for for multiple hours now this is when price is usually very very
668
00:40:31,280 --> 00:40:35,200
choppy you see all these moves here right it's usually very very slow
669
00:40:35,200 --> 00:40:38,319
during the agents going into asian session into spread hours that is not
670
00:40:38,319 --> 00:40:41,680
what i'm looking at the markets and looking to get into positions so this is
671
00:40:41,680 --> 00:40:44,400
generally where i'll just play price forward or obviously if there's a live
672
00:40:44,400 --> 00:40:48,240
market i'd be waiting till around 6am 7am before i'm at my desk and i'm not
673
00:40:48,240 --> 00:40:51,839
going to be looking to take trades during the asian session when price is
674
00:40:51,839 --> 00:40:55,440
really slow so as i'm coming to my desk around 6 a.m that that's exactly where i
675
00:40:55,440 --> 00:40:58,319
would be obviously i would then do my higher time frame analysis which you
676
00:40:58,319 --> 00:41:00,720
know we don't need to do now because we've already done it and i would
677
00:41:00,720 --> 00:41:03,200
literally be looking at the 15-minute chart and going okay well 15-minute
678
00:41:03,200 --> 00:41:08,000
chart is still bearish we have just had a break of structure to the downside
679
00:41:08,000 --> 00:41:12,880
all right so we'll just draw this on um in fact just realized i haven't done the
680
00:41:12,880 --> 00:41:17,599
prior ones for you but just to make it a bit more obvious where we are with that
681
00:41:17,599 --> 00:41:19,520
so obviously the trade we're in before
682
00:41:19,520 --> 00:41:22,079
right we did get that break at the high we had that breaker structure to the
683
00:41:22,079 --> 00:41:25,280
upside now
684
00:41:25,280 --> 00:41:30,000
price came back down here and we had the break of this low down here right in
685
00:41:30,000 --> 00:41:33,119
fact what i'm going to do just because there's actually
686
00:41:33,119 --> 00:41:36,240
um something i want to talk through this price action back here at this point
687
00:41:36,240 --> 00:41:38,640
right so i think this is quite an important mini lesson
688
00:41:38,640 --> 00:41:42,880
so obviously we took that initial um
689
00:41:42,880 --> 00:41:45,599
m1 short here right playing for our pullback and we had a scale in somewhere
690
00:41:45,599 --> 00:41:48,319
around here now when you're in those shorts kind of that first real major
691
00:41:48,319 --> 00:41:52,160
target would be demand within here obviously trying to take out this m15
692
00:41:52,160 --> 00:41:55,280
low to then potentially tell us that we are going to pull back deeper into that
693
00:41:55,280 --> 00:42:00,640
four-hour area of demand so if we go back to those trades
694
00:42:00,640 --> 00:42:03,599
all right this is that m15 lower down here that we've drawn across all right
695
00:42:03,599 --> 00:42:07,119
now as price comes down to that low generally what you will see when we get
696
00:42:07,119 --> 00:42:10,240
the break of a low appreciate there's some concepts here
697
00:42:10,240 --> 00:42:13,280
that we haven't quite covered yet but in liquidity what we will learn is when
698
00:42:13,280 --> 00:42:16,800
price takes out a major swing low generally you will get a pullback right
699
00:42:16,800 --> 00:42:20,880
you will see price start to pull back as bullish pressure starts to step in so as
700
00:42:20,880 --> 00:42:24,480
price comes down and it starts to sweep out it's only subtle but even by pit
701
00:42:24,480 --> 00:42:28,480
that's enough for price to trade that low right we can potentially look for
702
00:42:28,480 --> 00:42:32,240
long positions right to hedge our short positions because if we know price is
703
00:42:32,240 --> 00:42:35,760
going to pull back potentially we can look for longs okay so how do we look
704
00:42:35,760 --> 00:42:38,640
for long as we wait for brakes to stretch to the upside we wait for supply
705
00:42:38,640 --> 00:42:42,720
to start to fail and demand to start to take control so what do we have here we
706
00:42:42,720 --> 00:42:45,680
have this buy before the cell so we can look to take that whole range or
707
00:42:45,680 --> 00:42:50,400
potentially we can you know refine it to this m1 candle here
708
00:42:50,400 --> 00:42:54,000
all right and see what is going to happen so price comes into there right
709
00:42:54,000 --> 00:42:57,520
now we have a reaction so literally as i'm seeing that in the market um not the
710
00:42:57,520 --> 00:43:00,240
best of reaction but that's a fractal refinement right because what's happened
711
00:43:00,240 --> 00:43:03,599
price has pushed down and it's pushed up but just gonna wait for a little bit
712
00:43:03,599 --> 00:43:06,079
more okay so that for me is an inside bar so
713
00:43:06,079 --> 00:43:09,760
that's even more convincing now because this candle has failed to take out this
714
00:43:09,760 --> 00:43:13,440
candles high so that's enough for me to then draw that as the start of the
715
00:43:13,440 --> 00:43:17,920
reaction points this is where you have to really pay attention to detail right
716
00:43:17,920 --> 00:43:22,640
so now if price was to break above that high before it takes out that low that
717
00:43:22,640 --> 00:43:26,160
for me would be enough to show me that potentially supply is failing so now we
718
00:43:26,160 --> 00:43:30,720
have a break and close above so now what we can do right is take that m1 candle
719
00:43:30,720 --> 00:43:36,000
there as an entry and we can get long now what you'll notice right just as i
720
00:43:36,000 --> 00:43:40,960
kind of size this up let's say a two-pip stop is
721
00:43:40,960 --> 00:43:44,000
if i'm entering now right once we have that failed reaction
722
00:43:44,000 --> 00:43:47,760
what don't we have we don't yet have a change of character so if you remember
723
00:43:47,760 --> 00:43:51,200
this is just a flip this is the most aggressive way of entering in terms of
724
00:43:51,200 --> 00:43:54,560
you know the actual price action because all we have is an indication that supply
725
00:43:54,560 --> 00:43:57,760
is failing but we don't have any structure failing so this is the most
726
00:43:57,760 --> 00:44:01,520
aggressive way but let's just see if it plays out so we get tagged in stock
727
00:44:01,520 --> 00:44:05,599
keeps us safe just about comes a little bit lower and now we have the change of
728
00:44:05,599 --> 00:44:08,960
character so if you did want to wait a bit for a bit more confirmation you
729
00:44:08,960 --> 00:44:12,640
could actually now potentially set your order on this cell before the buy here
730
00:44:12,640 --> 00:44:15,839
right and then you would have your chalk and your flip but this is a way you can
731
00:44:15,839 --> 00:44:22,160
get in uh a little bit earlier now don't want to talk too much a bit to
732
00:44:22,160 --> 00:44:25,599
talk too much uh about management but generally when you're kind of in those
733
00:44:25,599 --> 00:44:29,839
you know counter m15 trades um or not even counter but it counts as a four
734
00:44:29,839 --> 00:44:33,359
hour trend i should say right you can either leave your both trades open when
735
00:44:33,359 --> 00:44:36,400
you're in two positions or you can be a bit more in and out with your with your
736
00:44:36,400 --> 00:44:40,560
trades and generally try and catch those 5r moves and just bank your profit and
737
00:44:40,560 --> 00:44:44,000
move on so as we can see here right price does run
738
00:44:44,000 --> 00:44:48,800
a bit around 5r um and then if we play it forward price then does eventually
739
00:44:48,800 --> 00:44:52,240
come down and it would have stopped us out depending on you know how you choose
740
00:44:52,240 --> 00:44:54,640
to manage your trade but this is just to show you how you can play those
741
00:44:54,640 --> 00:44:58,480
aggressive hedging positions uh and still kind of trade the market both ways
742
00:44:58,480 --> 00:45:01,760
um essentially what it was based on is a sweep of the m15 low
743
00:45:01,760 --> 00:45:04,319
and then we get the change of character or just a flip if you want to enter it
744
00:45:04,319 --> 00:45:06,880
before then or you could have entered over here right once we did have the
745
00:45:06,880 --> 00:45:09,920
change of character so yeah i did just want to show you that but obviously we
746
00:45:09,920 --> 00:45:13,200
know now with the benefit of hindsight that
747
00:45:13,200 --> 00:45:16,319
four hour does pull back deeper but yeah it's literally just to show
748
00:45:16,319 --> 00:45:19,680
this stuff happens again and again again session by session just look for those
749
00:45:19,680 --> 00:45:23,680
turning points in the market chuck flip or just a flip in this case right um and
750
00:45:23,680 --> 00:45:27,040
you can catch those taunting points right so
751
00:45:27,040 --> 00:45:30,560
kind of going back to what i was saying about session timing we've come into our
752
00:45:30,560 --> 00:45:33,520
four-hour area of demand we're looking at the 15 minute and i'll just bring
753
00:45:33,520 --> 00:45:37,440
this forward to just before the london session at 6 00 a.m to pretty much where
754
00:45:37,440 --> 00:45:41,680
i'll be coming for my desk so my thought process at this time is we're in for our
755
00:45:41,680 --> 00:45:45,599
area of demand i'm looking for a four hour high low but i want to see price
756
00:45:45,599 --> 00:45:48,880
start to break structure to the upside get those bullish changes of character
757
00:45:48,880 --> 00:45:53,200
uh c supply fail and demand starting to step in
758
00:45:53,200 --> 00:45:57,520
now okay what we see price breaks in 15 low
759
00:45:57,520 --> 00:46:00,800
so what do we expect we expect an 15 pullback then it comes down we get an
760
00:46:00,800 --> 00:46:04,880
aggressive tap into our refined area of demand and then boom we get our change
761
00:46:04,880 --> 00:46:09,040
of character now one thing another minister i want to point out here is a
762
00:46:09,040 --> 00:46:11,440
lot of times right especially when you kind of have rangy price action within
763
00:46:11,440 --> 00:46:14,480
here there's going to be quite a lot of sort of m15 zones that we could draw on
764
00:46:14,480 --> 00:46:17,359
you know we could have even been waiting for price to come down deeper into this
765
00:46:17,359 --> 00:46:21,040
origin zone here right you may not have drawn on this wick
766
00:46:21,040 --> 00:46:24,240
but the point is it doesn't matter right there'll be a lot of times where i do my
767
00:46:24,240 --> 00:46:28,319
forecast and i don't have the exact perfect zone drawn on that price ends up
768
00:46:28,319 --> 00:46:31,440
reversing from but it doesn't matter because what i'm doing is i'm watching
769
00:46:31,440 --> 00:46:34,400
the charts and i'm just letting the market show me the way i'm letting the
770
00:46:34,400 --> 00:46:37,920
market tell me which area of demand it wants to react to and i just look at
771
00:46:37,920 --> 00:46:41,280
market structure because what's happened we've come down we've come up we've
772
00:46:41,280 --> 00:46:44,400
taken the low and then boom we've taken the high we've had that aggressive
773
00:46:44,400 --> 00:46:48,000
change of character right because price reacted from this cell
774
00:46:48,000 --> 00:46:51,680
before the buy came into supply it kind of really tried to break lower yes we
775
00:46:51,680 --> 00:46:54,800
did get a wick break below but then demand stepped in to take out that
776
00:46:54,800 --> 00:46:58,720
reaction to not only get that change of character we've taken out this high um
777
00:46:58,720 --> 00:47:01,520
yeah and we're just seeing a lot of momentum come in
778
00:47:01,520 --> 00:47:04,880
so now what i'm going to start to do we'll just play this forward i can get
779
00:47:04,880 --> 00:47:07,680
it to work there we go right and now we've even
780
00:47:07,680 --> 00:47:13,520
whipped this high as well we're seeing a lot of bullish pressure come in but
781
00:47:13,520 --> 00:47:16,480
the key important thing as well is what i'm talking about session timing is this
782
00:47:16,480 --> 00:47:19,520
is when we know volume is also likely to be high right right at the start of the
783
00:47:19,520 --> 00:47:24,160
lunar session so now it's about 8 a.m london is high we've had um this change
784
00:47:24,160 --> 00:47:27,200
of character here we took the low
785
00:47:27,200 --> 00:47:31,359
just draw this on bear with and then we took the high so
786
00:47:31,359 --> 00:47:36,400
that is our bullish change of character however right the m15 is
787
00:47:36,400 --> 00:47:39,920
still bearish because that was our low and this is our highest point so price
788
00:47:39,920 --> 00:47:42,720
has tried to close above but it hasn't done just so just yet so for me it's
789
00:47:42,720 --> 00:47:46,640
still bearish but we do have an m15 bullish change of
790
00:47:46,640 --> 00:47:50,880
character we've mitigated an area of demand that makes sense we are within
791
00:47:50,880 --> 00:47:55,839
our four hour uh area of demand and price has now spiked up higher breaking
792
00:47:55,839 --> 00:47:59,440
multiple minor levels and we've tried to wick break the high and it's the start
793
00:47:59,440 --> 00:48:02,720
of the last session so for me this is literally all systems go very high
794
00:48:02,720 --> 00:48:08,559
probability trade to start to look for a potential um for our higher low right so
795
00:48:08,559 --> 00:48:11,119
just gonna refine this a little bit just so
796
00:48:11,119 --> 00:48:15,440
we can focus on price action okay so you can literally at this point just
797
00:48:15,440 --> 00:48:18,640
enter on the m15 zone right again you don't have to do all these lower time
798
00:48:18,640 --> 00:48:21,280
frame requirements if you want to be a bit more hands-off um you know you can
799
00:48:21,280 --> 00:48:23,599
enter like that or you can enter on the eq
800
00:48:23,599 --> 00:48:26,720
and then you can get a bit more better wrist reward but for the sake of this
801
00:48:26,720 --> 00:48:32,800
example let's do the lower timeframes and see what we can see so
802
00:48:32,800 --> 00:48:35,920
right we have had a very nice super liquidity again don't worry too much
803
00:48:35,920 --> 00:48:38,480
about this just now if you have no idea what i'm talking about when i mention
804
00:48:38,480 --> 00:48:41,520
that um and then we've had that very aggressive move to the upside just gonna
805
00:48:41,520 --> 00:48:44,480
grab a sip of water
806
00:48:44,800 --> 00:48:47,680
as i'm starting to lose my voice but yeah
807
00:48:47,680 --> 00:48:49,760
so clear bullish intentions right this
808
00:48:49,760 --> 00:48:53,520
takes massive massive money to do this um had a nice bullish move to the upside
809
00:48:53,520 --> 00:48:59,359
so where can we start to look on the m1 for price to um
810
00:48:59,359 --> 00:49:04,079
uh you know potentially uh react for my area of demand for us to get long well
811
00:49:04,079 --> 00:49:07,359
we could literally just keep it super simple and just take that bottom last
812
00:49:07,359 --> 00:49:11,680
cell before the buy and that would definitely be more than a valid entry um
813
00:49:11,680 --> 00:49:15,520
and definitely one that i would consider but how can we increase it even more so
814
00:49:15,520 --> 00:49:18,319
just looking for the one that broke structure we can look at where the flip
815
00:49:18,319 --> 00:49:21,839
occurred so what do we have here we have a low right price came down and took
816
00:49:21,839 --> 00:49:25,040
that low so we have the whole buyer before the sale or we could refine it to
817
00:49:25,040 --> 00:49:28,720
just that last pivot point candle right this bullish candle here and then what
818
00:49:28,720 --> 00:49:32,559
can we see price came into that supply zone it reacted and then it pushed up
819
00:49:32,559 --> 00:49:36,319
through so that reaction point for me is where that kind of last point of demand
820
00:49:36,319 --> 00:49:41,680
stepped in to take out that high there so i'm just going to refine this zone in
821
00:49:41,680 --> 00:49:45,680
a little bit all right and then this is
822
00:49:45,680 --> 00:49:49,359
pretty much picture perfect now to look to take a long position down here you
823
00:49:49,359 --> 00:49:53,200
know we can be a bit more conservative and cover that low right two pips
824
00:49:53,200 --> 00:49:57,440
and then set limit order there and we have seen pretty much everything we need
825
00:49:57,440 --> 00:50:01,040
to see so let's just fuss us forward and see if we get tagged in okay so boom
826
00:50:01,040 --> 00:50:05,440
tagged in nice little reaction there as those orders are filled so again just to
827
00:50:05,440 --> 00:50:09,119
quickly go over this what we're doing for our pro trend we've now pulled back
828
00:50:09,119 --> 00:50:12,559
after that fire breaker structure into our four-hour area of demand
829
00:50:12,559 --> 00:50:17,200
where potentially that four-hour high low may form we have waited to see an
830
00:50:17,200 --> 00:50:21,280
area of demand get mitigated on the m15 excuse me we've had a change of
831
00:50:21,280 --> 00:50:24,720
character to the upside showing our supply started to fail demand starting
832
00:50:24,720 --> 00:50:27,839
to step in we haven't had that breaker structure just yet but we have had you
833
00:50:27,839 --> 00:50:31,760
know decent amount to the upside we pulled back into our area of demand and
834
00:50:31,760 --> 00:50:36,160
now we've waited on the m1 for our entry and we can start to target at minimum um
835
00:50:36,160 --> 00:50:40,160
you know this four-hour high that weak high to try and get that four hour
836
00:50:40,160 --> 00:50:44,480
higher high so dropping back to the m1 now we've been tagged in another thing
837
00:50:44,480 --> 00:50:48,319
as well i want to point out right is literally
838
00:50:48,319 --> 00:50:52,000
you have so long to spot this example right um you know like i was saying you
839
00:50:52,000 --> 00:50:55,440
may not have that perfect refined zone drawing on or from the inside bar range
840
00:50:55,440 --> 00:50:57,680
right it doesn't really matter you just can be
841
00:50:57,680 --> 00:51:00,960
a bit more loose wait for price to start to react then we start to break shots
842
00:51:00,960 --> 00:51:05,440
just upside at what 7 45 it doesn't pull back into your zone until 45 minutes
843
00:51:05,440 --> 00:51:08,559
later and then you have all of that time to set your entry
844
00:51:08,559 --> 00:51:12,240
and get into the trade now let's say you don't want to set your limit order and
845
00:51:12,240 --> 00:51:15,040
you wanted to wait for a confirmation entry then how i would be looking at
846
00:51:15,040 --> 00:51:17,359
this is i'd be looking at this last area of
847
00:51:17,359 --> 00:51:20,079
supply and i would want to see price come in
848
00:51:20,079 --> 00:51:23,680
and i'd want to see price react and then that reaction to fail and ideally we get
849
00:51:23,680 --> 00:51:26,720
a change of character right and then i look for price to pull back in and then
850
00:51:26,720 --> 00:51:30,400
we go so let's see if we get that confirmation entry
851
00:51:30,400 --> 00:51:33,599
um or not so it doesn't look like we did right
852
00:51:33,599 --> 00:51:36,800
price is pretty much just smashed up straight through
853
00:51:36,800 --> 00:51:40,000
now arguably we did have a bit of a reaction it's not the best it's very
854
00:51:40,000 --> 00:51:43,359
very small where price came in and then these small buy-to-cell works here that
855
00:51:43,359 --> 00:51:46,319
push up through so that probably be like a five-second demand zone so yeah it
856
00:51:46,319 --> 00:51:49,839
would be more than valid to set your entry order there if you wanted to
857
00:51:49,839 --> 00:51:52,800
let's see if it comes back but yeah it doesn't come back so this is what i'm
858
00:51:52,800 --> 00:51:55,920
saying about you know waiting for extra confirmation you're not always going to
859
00:51:55,920 --> 00:52:01,040
get it okay so um just something that you have to accept um in some cases but
860
00:52:01,040 --> 00:52:04,000
let's say you know there's any potential scalings or other areas where we could
861
00:52:04,000 --> 00:52:07,280
look for an entry if we weren't already in the trade so as prices start to move
862
00:52:07,280 --> 00:52:09,680
up what i'm essentially looking for is
863
00:52:09,680 --> 00:52:13,839
another uh flip to start to occur so we push straight up through here so nothing
864
00:52:13,839 --> 00:52:17,760
too great and but what we can do is look for one in the pullback so what you will
865
00:52:17,760 --> 00:52:21,359
often see in a pullback right so we have this big m1 push up is price will pull
866
00:52:21,359 --> 00:52:24,400
back right start to take substructure lows and then sometimes what you'll get
867
00:52:24,400 --> 00:52:27,599
is then price will get that minor breaker structure and it'll pull back in
868
00:52:27,599 --> 00:52:31,040
and then we can look for an entry right within that pullback to then take it
869
00:52:31,040 --> 00:52:35,119
higher so it's not as ideal entering high up on the leg but we can do that
870
00:52:35,119 --> 00:52:40,000
okay so price is starting to pull back all right so you can see here on a lower
871
00:52:40,000 --> 00:52:42,960
time frame what that would be is price pulling back up into that 15 second
872
00:52:42,960 --> 00:52:46,559
supply and it's trying to go lower right so that's the pullback
873
00:52:46,559 --> 00:52:50,960
initiating then we take another low and now we've pulled back up into this area
874
00:52:50,960 --> 00:52:55,280
of m1 supply so now what i want to see is a reaction here and see if we can
875
00:52:55,280 --> 00:52:59,599
start to see that battle between supply and demand okay so now we've had that
876
00:52:59,599 --> 00:53:02,800
bearish candle come in right so that validates that this is a decent supply
877
00:53:02,800 --> 00:53:07,119
zone for me so now what i would do in the live market is literally draw my m1
878
00:53:07,119 --> 00:53:10,240
fold reaction across and then obviously you could do
879
00:53:10,240 --> 00:53:12,559
you know your change of character as well
880
00:53:12,559 --> 00:53:15,839
but let's just try and speed this up for the sake of time so prices start to pull
881
00:53:15,839 --> 00:53:18,800
back so remember if this reaction is going to fail it shouldn't take out this
882
00:53:18,800 --> 00:53:22,400
low down here and then boom what do we get we get that
883
00:53:22,400 --> 00:53:26,160
brake enclosure above that reaction there so now anywhere within the cell
884
00:53:26,160 --> 00:53:29,839
before the buy you can look to get long so let's be unrefined or you could take
885
00:53:29,839 --> 00:53:34,079
that one doji counter there or you could even take the wic if you wanted to do so
886
00:53:34,079 --> 00:53:37,200
um but yeah let's just be really unrefined and conservative
887
00:53:37,200 --> 00:53:39,760
for now
888
00:53:39,839 --> 00:53:42,640
and be consistent with the way we've been doing things so literally the
889
00:53:42,640 --> 00:53:45,680
minute we get that failed reaction that is where you have to be on the ball and
890
00:53:45,680 --> 00:53:48,800
looking to get tagged in with the entry so you get tagged in in the next minute
891
00:53:48,800 --> 00:53:52,559
or two um price comes a little bit lower okay so this is where if you had to set
892
00:53:52,559 --> 00:53:55,040
your entry order on the wick right you would have got a really really tight
893
00:53:55,040 --> 00:53:58,480
entry but of course sometimes price won't come down that low but this is
894
00:53:58,480 --> 00:54:01,839
just a really good example as well of why you always should cover the load no
895
00:54:01,839 --> 00:54:06,079
matter where you enter just so it protects you as price fills more orders
896
00:54:06,079 --> 00:54:10,559
and then it starts to go okay so let's just see how that looks on the
897
00:54:10,559 --> 00:54:14,160
15 seconds just so you can see it even clearer right you can see that that cell
898
00:54:14,160 --> 00:54:17,200
before the buy that broke up higher and the prices come down into the origin to
899
00:54:17,200 --> 00:54:21,440
mitigate it and go away okay so
900
00:54:21,440 --> 00:54:25,760
now we've got a scaling and like i was saying this isn't ideal right i'm really
901
00:54:25,760 --> 00:54:30,000
not a big fan of one you're entering right with this larger range here you're
902
00:54:30,000 --> 00:54:33,520
entering right sort of in the middle of it you're buying more in the premium uh
903
00:54:33,520 --> 00:54:36,319
you're buying later even in this leg right you're buying at the top of this
904
00:54:36,319 --> 00:54:39,839
internal leg it's not well priced whatsoever when we're just looking at
905
00:54:39,839 --> 00:54:43,839
this section of price action so getting in here is a lot more aggressive but the
906
00:54:43,839 --> 00:54:47,520
reason or when you have to decide maybe it's worth doing it for you is
907
00:54:47,520 --> 00:54:50,799
understanding what is the move you're trying to capture well we're trying to
908
00:54:50,799 --> 00:54:53,760
capture that four hour high low we've seen everything pretty much we need to
909
00:54:53,760 --> 00:54:56,960
see momentum is really strong so actually maybe it's worth the risk
910
00:54:56,960 --> 00:55:00,160
because you're not just trying to target this high for you know just on the 4r
911
00:55:00,160 --> 00:55:03,920
actually you're trying to target that next four hour um you know higher high
912
00:55:03,920 --> 00:55:07,280
so if we were to scroll down right this is the four-hour high up here so
913
00:55:07,280 --> 00:55:11,520
actually the arista reward is you know nearer what nearly 20 are right for that
914
00:55:11,520 --> 00:55:16,079
first one and potentially let's see you know 24 hour there so
915
00:55:16,079 --> 00:55:18,799
maybe that's when you go okay it's more aggressive potentially going to take a
916
00:55:18,799 --> 00:55:22,079
few more losses buying in these areas but actually it's worth it in the long
917
00:55:22,079 --> 00:55:25,119
run right at the lower large numbers because this is going to more than pay
918
00:55:25,119 --> 00:55:28,880
for any losers um yeah that you may take so
919
00:55:28,880 --> 00:55:34,720
let's hop up to the 15-minute chart and start to target that for our uh higher
920
00:55:34,720 --> 00:55:39,119
high and see if price starts to get up there and obviously then we get a higher
921
00:55:39,119 --> 00:55:43,680
high right so on and so forth um but yeah one thing you know i want to say is
922
00:55:43,680 --> 00:55:46,640
you don't have to limit yourself there because you are playing with the pro
923
00:55:46,640 --> 00:55:49,280
trend you're playing with the daily trend it's that first initial four-hour
924
00:55:49,280 --> 00:55:53,200
train trend change so if you think you're well positioned you don't have to
925
00:55:53,200 --> 00:55:56,079
get out the next four-hour high you can start to look at those daily targets
926
00:55:56,079 --> 00:55:59,440
right let's target the daily high um you know you can even potentially take some
927
00:55:59,440 --> 00:56:02,240
profits along the way right we don't have to just swing the fences every
928
00:56:02,240 --> 00:56:06,240
single time we've got our next four-hour area of supply where one we can look to
929
00:56:06,240 --> 00:56:10,079
take profits and two we can look to play for our pullbacks right
930
00:56:10,079 --> 00:56:14,000
and then so on and so forth and that brings us to the live price action and
931
00:56:14,000 --> 00:56:18,640
we've just pretty much wicked that daily high so yeah you could have made a
932
00:56:18,640 --> 00:56:22,960
decent ton of profit but it all stemmed from what it all stemmed from literally
933
00:56:22,960 --> 00:56:25,599
just playing ping-pong with the four-hour zones waiting for price to
934
00:56:25,599 --> 00:56:28,240
break structure in a four-hour it comes into the four-hour chart we expect a
935
00:56:28,240 --> 00:56:31,040
pullback so we start to look for you know there's lower timeframe
936
00:56:31,040 --> 00:56:33,359
confirmations not going to go over it again right because this video has gone
937
00:56:33,359 --> 00:56:36,559
on for pretty long now um yeah when you get those pro trend moves and you think
938
00:56:36,559 --> 00:56:39,760
you've caught the four hour high low right from a four hour area of demand
939
00:56:39,760 --> 00:56:43,440
this is where you know you can swing for the fences with a hell of a lot of
940
00:56:43,440 --> 00:56:47,359
confidence right right that is how you get those quantum leaps in your account
941
00:56:47,359 --> 00:56:51,119
all right you can see the other there's a hell of a lot of art now don't get me
942
00:56:51,119 --> 00:56:54,079
wrong i'm not selling you a dream here this is not easy right you're not just
943
00:56:54,079 --> 00:56:57,119
suddenly gonna be training a large account and then suddenly just be able
944
00:56:57,119 --> 00:57:01,200
to you know make atr on a 400 grand account million pound account whatever
945
00:57:01,200 --> 00:57:04,880
10 million pound account because you're going to have to battle with extremely
946
00:57:04,880 --> 00:57:07,359
hard you know psychology issues it's going to
947
00:57:07,359 --> 00:57:09,680
be a hell of a lot of money running and sometimes you're going to have big
948
00:57:09,680 --> 00:57:12,559
pullbacks and you are going to take a lot of breakevens because remember what
949
00:57:12,559 --> 00:57:14,799
i said when we were on the four-hour chart earlier
950
00:57:14,799 --> 00:57:18,720
right it's not just as simple always as
951
00:57:18,960 --> 00:57:23,119
price coming in back into the first four hour demand zone we take a nice little
952
00:57:23,119 --> 00:57:25,680
entry and go okay you know i'm just going to swing for the fences now
953
00:57:25,680 --> 00:57:28,480
because what a lot of the times can happen is you can be running a decent
954
00:57:28,480 --> 00:57:31,440
amount of profit right but then price can come all the way back you could be
955
00:57:31,440 --> 00:57:34,880
running 20 r even just to there and then you could end up taking a break even
956
00:57:34,880 --> 00:57:38,000
price can come lower you do the exact same thing you take your entry you go
957
00:57:38,000 --> 00:57:41,200
okay i'm gonna be patient i want to target the high you could be
958
00:57:41,200 --> 00:57:44,640
running 20 30 r and then you could get break even again it could come lower and
959
00:57:44,640 --> 00:57:48,640
the exact same thing can keep happening before eventually the real move goes
960
00:57:48,640 --> 00:57:52,319
so if you want to be that type of trader that wants to capture those larger big
961
00:57:52,319 --> 00:57:55,359
moves and bank those real big kind of swing trades
962
00:57:55,359 --> 00:57:58,720
you have to accept that there's going to be many many times where you're running
963
00:57:58,720 --> 00:58:01,680
a decent profit and you end up with a break even
964
00:58:01,680 --> 00:58:04,079
right you're running a decent profit and you're breaking break even but that's
965
00:58:04,079 --> 00:58:07,200
just part of the game you're playing because when it does work and it does go
966
00:58:07,200 --> 00:58:10,720
that is where you then you know have an amazing year literally in just
967
00:58:10,720 --> 00:58:14,079
one single trade right because of course there's going to be plenty of market
968
00:58:14,079 --> 00:58:18,640
environments where you know we take a high we retrace we take a low we retrace
969
00:58:18,640 --> 00:58:21,280
and we're just ranging and we're chopping around but it will come with
970
00:58:21,280 --> 00:58:24,240
time and experience that you know every time you get in a trade you're not just
971
00:58:24,240 --> 00:58:26,880
suddenly gonna expect a nice trending move like that and actually we just play
972
00:58:26,880 --> 00:58:29,680
ping pong and we're a lot more aggressive we get in and out we take our
973
00:58:29,680 --> 00:58:32,880
five while we take our 10r and we just play the compounding game that way we
974
00:58:32,880 --> 00:58:35,839
bank and we move on but then when we recognize that we're actually in a
975
00:58:35,839 --> 00:58:38,480
trending market all the higher time frames are in sync and we're starting to
976
00:58:38,480 --> 00:58:42,240
go that is when then you can you know hold with a lot more volume for those
977
00:58:42,240 --> 00:58:46,240
larger swing moves okay so i do just want to make that point clear
978
00:58:46,240 --> 00:58:48,960
but yeah i just thought it was no useful exercise just to go through literally
979
00:58:48,960 --> 00:58:52,559
the last few days we've had in the live market um
980
00:58:52,559 --> 00:58:56,000
you know i'm not having to go back nine months 18 months to cherry pick and one
981
00:58:56,000 --> 00:59:00,640
little perfect example this happens day in day out it's the exact same things
982
00:59:00,640 --> 00:59:04,799
this is literally how the market moves and how we time those higher time frame
983
00:59:04,799 --> 00:59:09,040
swing points with lower time frame confirmations okay and you'll see as
984
00:59:09,040 --> 00:59:12,640
your time in the community right every single day with our markups
985
00:59:12,640 --> 00:59:16,000
week by week um you'll see the exact same things the exact same entry models
986
00:59:16,000 --> 00:59:18,960
playing out again and again and again of course every day there's not going to be
987
00:59:18,960 --> 00:59:22,640
those swing moves for us to take advantage of um but yeah the power is
988
00:59:22,640 --> 00:59:27,680
there even on just one pair alone so go and practice yourself yourself in
989
00:59:27,680 --> 00:59:30,559
your charts go and look at the hard time frame zones that you've drawn on so far
990
00:59:30,559 --> 00:59:32,960
and just really dive into them and then when you want to get a little bit more
991
00:59:32,960 --> 00:59:36,000
advanced and when you start looking for those trade examples literally just look
992
00:59:36,000 --> 00:59:39,200
at all of the higher lows in a bullish trending market look at all the lower
993
00:59:39,200 --> 00:59:42,240
highs you know on the 4-hour chart and then drop down to the 15-minute chart
994
00:59:42,240 --> 00:59:45,520
see those changes of characters see the interaction between supply and demand
995
00:59:45,520 --> 00:59:50,240
right look for those flip zones um you know look on the m1 let's let's see how
996
00:59:50,240 --> 00:59:54,079
it interacts because you know even just go back here right
997
00:59:54,079 --> 00:59:57,920
when we were looking at those m1 shorts to pay that for our pullback and then
998
00:59:57,920 --> 01:00:00,799
what did we look we looked at that aggressive hedge as we set the m15 low
999
01:00:00,799 --> 01:00:03,839
to play that ball back there what could we have used to help us with
1000
01:00:03,839 --> 01:00:07,040
our targets because it's literally just happening everywhere when you start to
1001
01:00:07,040 --> 01:00:11,440
see it so what do we have we had an m15 sell before the buy here
1002
01:00:11,440 --> 01:00:14,880
all right price came into it that's when it reacted right
1003
01:00:14,880 --> 01:00:18,400
so what should it do that demands should make a higher height but we come down we
1004
01:00:18,400 --> 01:00:22,640
take out the reaction so that means we have a supply to demand flipping here
1005
01:00:22,640 --> 01:00:25,839
right and boom that's how we could have then timed
1006
01:00:25,839 --> 01:00:29,119
you know that counter trade management with a little bit more accuracy so if i
1007
01:00:29,119 --> 01:00:31,680
just scroll back just to show you what i mean all right when we played that
1008
01:00:31,680 --> 01:00:35,760
aggressive uh long hedge here right and then boom you could have literally
1009
01:00:35,760 --> 01:00:39,200
targeted the distal there and then you would get out of picture perfect entry
1010
01:00:39,200 --> 01:00:42,480
but it's just understanding what's going on right it's that that exchange between
1011
01:00:42,480 --> 01:00:46,240
supply and demand is happening constantly and we just use time frames
1012
01:00:46,240 --> 01:00:50,319
to clear up to clear up our candles and read what is going on in the order book
1013
01:00:50,319 --> 01:00:52,880
okay so i'm gonna leave that there hopefully you guys took some value from
1014
01:00:52,880 --> 01:00:56,400
that um yeah and i'm just gonna show you in a week in week out as we go through
1015
01:00:56,400 --> 01:01:01,040
the market commentaries as we go through the market mark um
1016
01:01:01,040 --> 01:01:04,319
the uh the market breakdown's right how this happens um you know time and time
1017
01:01:04,319 --> 01:01:08,240
again and literally how you can swing these trades all the way up here i mean
1018
01:01:08,240 --> 01:01:11,680
you know that's even i haven't even looked at this yet but on friday we had
1019
01:01:11,680 --> 01:01:16,480
nfp so big volatility don't usually trade that right um if you don't need to
1020
01:01:16,480 --> 01:01:20,400
um yeah just looking at it right you can see what happens here right before the
1021
01:01:20,400 --> 01:01:24,160
news occurs we can see we have this cell to buy range right the
1022
01:01:24,160 --> 01:01:26,640
unrefined range we can see an aggressive move away
1023
01:01:26,640 --> 01:01:30,480
so that's how we can look at the range um let's jump down into the one minute
1024
01:01:30,480 --> 01:01:33,440
and see how we could have potentially traded this move but this is literally
1025
01:01:33,440 --> 01:01:36,640
how i do it right if this was you so i know i'm appreciating jumping around
1026
01:01:36,640 --> 01:01:40,400
time frames here but just to kind of quickly show you how i would do this
1027
01:01:40,400 --> 01:01:43,680
all right let's reset the chart it says let's say okay you can see price
1028
01:01:43,680 --> 01:01:46,640
pull back and it moved away so now i'm going to look at this price action right
1029
01:01:46,640 --> 01:01:49,359
without buy replay don't even need it and just look at okay how could i
1030
01:01:49,359 --> 01:01:52,319
potentially have traded this move i mean i wouldn't advise you do it in real life
1031
01:01:52,319 --> 01:01:56,640
because you know i personally wouldn't risk my capital going into nfp
1032
01:01:56,640 --> 01:02:01,280
um but let's have a look so if we scroll back all right price has come into our
1033
01:02:01,280 --> 01:02:06,480
m15 demand zone um we have i'm just going to zoom in
1034
01:02:06,480 --> 01:02:10,480
here so we can see it all right i'm literally looking at this
1035
01:02:10,480 --> 01:02:13,119
with you so it looks a bit choppy at first but let's just take this kind of
1036
01:02:13,119 --> 01:02:16,480
you know in chronological order so we have some liquidity right price sweeps
1037
01:02:16,480 --> 01:02:20,319
it we come in lower and that's exactly what i see right aggressive move in boom
1038
01:02:20,319 --> 01:02:24,079
aggressive move out right it shows a lot of money being in the market so we
1039
01:02:24,079 --> 01:02:27,039
obviously have this buy before the cell that's all supply but where does the
1040
01:02:27,039 --> 01:02:30,240
reaction happen well we come up we come up we come up then you can see that
1041
01:02:30,240 --> 01:02:33,760
reaction happen right so instead of taking the whole range we can refine
1042
01:02:33,760 --> 01:02:37,039
supply to just that last candle here we won't write the buy before the cell
1043
01:02:37,039 --> 01:02:40,640
price comes into it it reacts that lower time frame wick so we don't need to jump
1044
01:02:40,640 --> 01:02:43,760
down to time frame we can literally do that on the m1 uh we can draw that
1045
01:02:43,760 --> 01:02:47,520
across right down to the wick and then boom there's your entry not only do we
1046
01:02:47,520 --> 01:02:51,039
have failed reaction but we also have
1047
01:02:51,039 --> 01:02:55,599
change of character so what do we have liquidation higher time frame mitigation
1048
01:02:55,599 --> 01:03:00,160
of the demand zone we have the flip we have the chalk boom all systems go
1049
01:03:00,160 --> 01:03:02,480
obviously you know all those things considered with your hard time frame
1050
01:03:02,480 --> 01:03:05,599
analysis but if you like the area just showing you the entry model here right
1051
01:03:05,599 --> 01:03:09,760
let's see 1.5 pip stop just about keeps you in and then that's
1052
01:03:09,760 --> 01:03:14,000
literally how you could have traded that move all the way up to then
1053
01:03:14,000 --> 01:03:16,720
the daily higher obviously chops around a lot that's typically what happens
1054
01:03:16,720 --> 01:03:19,839
before big large news announcements you know people aren't really
1055
01:03:19,839 --> 01:03:22,960
training the market right they want to get out of their positions before so and
1056
01:03:22,960 --> 01:03:26,559
then you know burn that peaks at 25 r again nothing that i would necessarily
1057
01:03:26,559 --> 01:03:29,359
recommend doing in the live market before a big major news announcement but
1058
01:03:29,359 --> 01:03:32,319
it's just to show you the logic behind what is going here with price action
1059
01:03:32,319 --> 01:03:36,559
it's the exact same thing again and again and again and again okay so go and
1060
01:03:36,559 --> 01:03:39,680
investigate those turning points to the market look for the m1 entries um yeah
1061
01:03:39,680 --> 01:03:43,599
and just practice it and just collect as many trade examples as you can so yeah
1062
01:03:43,599 --> 01:03:46,160
i'll leave that there hope you guys enjoyed that and i will see you in the
1063
01:03:46,160 --> 01:03:49,400
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