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right so in this lesson what we're going to look at is a trade example uh that's
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a really good example of essentially looking at how we can trade counter
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trend so as you'll see in a minute as we go through the higher time frames we are
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essentially looking at a long position which is heavily heavily counter trend
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uh to the four hour daily the weekly et cetera but i just want to want to show
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you um you know the safe way to do it for the
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lack of a better phrase where we really let the lower time frames
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start to shift in our favor we let the lower time frames really guide us of
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when the higher time frames are actually ready to pull back so that we can play
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that hard time frame ball back uh pull back okay because obviously as we're
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looking at in the seconds the the the higher time frames are extremely bearish
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if you're trying to look for longs um you know you are essentially trying to
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catch a falling knife against all of that hard time for momentum and but we
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can be patient and we can wait for those time frames to to build for structure to
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shift in our favor for supply to start failing and for demand to start to take
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control on the lower time frames in order to give us a lot more confirmation
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uh that we have the correct signal that the hard time frames may want to pull
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back okay and then obviously you know we don't swing for the fences because we
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know at any point that that higher time frame lower high could form and continue
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that overall bearish momentum okay so as always let's take our time building the
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hard time frame story before we even think about uh looking at entry so first
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thing we always do let's say we're starting on a weekly
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time frame what i'm going to what am i going to do i'm going to make sure that
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i know exactly what swing range we are playing with in okay
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you know literally the first thing i'm asking myself is where is my current
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swing high and where is my current swing low so i'm just going to paint the the
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picture back a little bit so we can see right we were bullish up here
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making higher highs higher lows higher highs and then we came down and we took
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this low over here and then we kind of had this very trickling sort of
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corrective um bearish trend and you can see up here price came up
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and took this high so we switched bullish over here uh just going to
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change this to a weekly line make it a little bit thicker
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cool okay so we had a weekly breaker stretch to the upside then we looked
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back where was the lowest point that took out this high and it was this low
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down here okay so if i zoom in all right
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this becomes our weekly low so now at this point the weekly chart is
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bearish this is our swing high up here and this
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is our swing low but price pulls all the way back up and then takes out that
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swing high so then we switch bullish again okay now when we take out this
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high to form a higher high where is our swing low it's not this low here it's
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not this low here it's this low all the way down here okay so with this specific
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example the the low stays in the same place
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right because this is the lowest point after this high was formed okay so after
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the higher high was formed where is the lowest point it's down here right that
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then went on to take out that high so this is now the next swing range we're
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within obviously we wait for price to have a significant pullback before we
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can know where the actual higher high is right and as we start to pull back this
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is where we can mark out that that is our spring range that we are currently
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playing within right so now if i adjust this line up
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here we can see we had another break of structure to the upside with the bullish
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weekly trend continuing so at this point this becomes obviously our
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swing low because this was the lowest point that took out the high and as soon
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as we started to have that significant pullback right when we get that weekly
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change of character up here that is when we now know that this becomes the swing
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height okay so at this point we're trading between this high and this low
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here which as we can see price pulled back it came into this demand level it
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tried to form the higher lower k because it tried to go on to break that higher
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high because remember we need to see a break of structure
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we need to see the high up here the swing height price needs to break and
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close above it for there to be a higher high
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and the higher low is only confirmed once we have the higher high okay so at
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this point when price comes down here and starts to move up yes we can
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anticipate that potentially this is the higher low right i know we've spoken
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about this example loads of times but i really want to drive it home to you guys
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okay so at this point we can take trade positions you know on the lower
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timeframes anticipating that potentially we have caught that weekly high low but
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it is never confirmed until we get a break enclosure above there to form that
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higher high okay so then when price starts to come down on the lower time
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frames at that point especially with this momentum
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you know you can start to anticipate that this low has not done its job
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because it has not made a higher high so then you know this load becomes weak and
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we can target the slow which is eventually what happened it took out the
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low then of course we actually ended up taking out the swing low so that strong
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low did uh end up getting taken out then we had that bearish trend change on the
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weekly chart when we got that closure below okay so now where is the swing
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range we're currently within well the high stays where it is because this is
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the highest point that took out this low after it was formed the case so after
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this high low formed to make a higher high
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right where is the highest point then before
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when price came down to take that out it's this point here okay so this is our
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swing high all the way up here and we don't really know where the swing low is
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going to be until we start to see that real significant pullback okay but
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obviously you know you can just draw on with the current lobby or within and
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that is the current bearish weekly swing range
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so after we have a weekly break of
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structure what do we expect we expect a weekly pullback
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from a market structure standpoint we can wait for a bullish change of
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character to potentially signal when that weekly pullback may be occurring at
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that moment in time since we've had that weekly break of structure we have not
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had a bullish change of character because the internal price action has
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also stayed bearish because all of these cameras broke the prior candles low then
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we had a small internal pullback and then from then on all of these candles
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broke the prior counters low so at this point of time in the market for there to
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be a bullish weekly change of character i would need to see this high go here
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okay because that is um let's just make it dash so you can
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see the difference between swing structure and
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internal structure so at this point right we need we would need to see this
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internal high get taken so if the weekly chart pulled back now and took out that
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high that would give us a weekly internal higher high
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and that would be a good signal from a market structure standpoint that
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potentially the weekly is pulling back because remember this is the weekly
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swing high all the way up here at this point so price can pull all the way back
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we can get that weekly change of character giving us a really good
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signal from a from a market structure standpoint that the weekly is now ready
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to pull back and it could pull back all the way up towards this high and as long
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as price doesn't close above that high right it could even spike it and move
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back down but as long as we don't get a weekly close above the high then we are
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still bearish and we could go on to form that lower low confirming the overall
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lower high okay so i know some of you this is really really basic and you'll
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be very useless by this point but i want to keep kind of driving these home until
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all of you guys you know really really understand it and it is as clear as
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possible so after we get a weekly break of structure
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to the downside we're anticipating that potentially we may get a weekly pullback
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so as i just described we can look for a weekly bullish change of character to
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signal the pullback maybe starting okay and that's what we use market structure
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for now what is another tool that we can use
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to also anticipate where that weekly pullback may kick in well of course in a
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bearish market if we're looking for a bullish pullback we're looking for price
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to move to the upside we can start to look left for old areas of demand
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right because old areas of demand in a bearish market whoops they provide uh
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potential reaction points okay for price to pull back
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okay so old demand becomes potential reaction points for price to pull back
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to then generate liquidity beneath those lows for them price to target to
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continue to fuel that move to the downside right
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so as you can see here we have this very very large uh weekly demand range okay
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this large cell to buy range right that's a cell before the buy that led to
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that bullish break of structure and it's also technically a flip zone as well
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right if i draw on this wic or fractal supply whatever you want to call it for
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the weekly chart okay uh whoops so this is our weekly supply
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zone right yes you can draw it on that entire counter like that right because
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that that supply zone led to the break of the low here but i just refined it a
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little bit to the wick because essentially what you're reading uh with
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that fractal refinement of course is a dis a supply zone on the lower time
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frame right it's probably a lot clearer on the daily chart so here we can see
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that price came up into that it reacted from supply supply tried to do its job
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it tried to make a lower low but as we can clearly see it didn't do its job it
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failed to take out the slow and then this is where the demand stepped in
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right to push up against that supply to absorb all of that supply and overpower
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it so demand then takes control and it leads to a weekly breakage structure
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okay so somewhere within this whole entire weekly range
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this gray box a lot of buying pressure stepped into the market to generate that
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move okay so now we can start to build that trade idea that yes the weekly
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chart is very bearish but potentially we could see some bullish pressure come in
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to facilitate a bit of a pullback um from this area okay now obviously it's
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quite a large weekly zone so you can drop down to the lower time frames to
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refine it a little bit more and also i want to make this point clear as well if
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you are a trader who does not use range supply and demand like this you can of
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course refine it okay to the pivot or to the single candle or you know even to a
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front door refinement right if you wanted to be you know really refined but
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of course you know um the more refined you go potentially the more you can miss
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those moves if you were to pull back from higher up here okay so i quite like
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to use um you know range demand initially and i refined on the lower
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time frames but obviously the further price moves and moves uh moves down you
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can of course you know keep refining it as you go if that makes sense okay so
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that's the weekly chart heavily bearish we've had a break of structure we expect
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a weekly pullback but we would need to see a bullish change of character all
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the way up here on the weekly chart however we are tapping into a decent
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area of weekly range demand so we could potentially see a little bit of a
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reaction okay because even if the weekly chart doesn't get you know on a full on
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weekly pullback from here even just a small little weekly bounce right with
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one bullish weekly candle that's probably going to be a few hundred pips
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right so if we're entering the lower time frames you know with a two three
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four five even ten pip stop that is going to still give us decent um risk to
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reward right playing that counter trend move
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okay so that's the that's the weekly chart so we drop down to the daily chart
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and you can just see how large this daily range is
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so i'll go look at that in a minute to refine it but let's look at structure
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first because again what's the first thing i always do on each time frame
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that i use i try and locate where is the current swing range that i'm playing
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with in okay so where is my swing high and where is my current swing low well
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if we look um choose the highlighter pen we can see we're clearly bearish right
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we had a lower low lower high lower low lower high lower low lower high one big
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run down we had a lower low then we pulled back to form a lower high and
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then obviously we've just had that break of structure there so just going to mark
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that out as price eventually broke and close
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below that daily though low there to the downside okay so similarly to the weekly
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chart we've had a bearish break of structure we expect a a daily pullback
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after that break of structure so what can we use well from a market structure
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standpoint we can uh we need to see a we don't need to but a bullish
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change of character on the daily chart can help signify um you know that the
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daily chart is putting back now where is the nearest daily internal high right
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that we would need to see be wicked or broken at least right for
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price to have that british change of character it's not this candle here okay
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because you can't be forgiven if you thought
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that this was an internal high right it looks like we came down we pulled back
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and then we came down but actually you need to look at all the candles right
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all of these candles broke the prior candles low okay you see how this it's a
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bullish candle yes but the color of the candle is irrelevant this candle here
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still was part of the down move right because it broke the pride counters low
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so for me that does not count as an internal high the nearest internal high
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is actually this movement here okay because we have the down movement then
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we pull back because we fail to break the prior counter low and then this is
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all part of the down move okay so for there to be a bullish daily change of
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character that would be the high that i would need to see go up here okay so
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let's just make this a dashed line so you can separate that okay so this is
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the swing range i'm in this is the high that i would need to see price break and
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close up above for there to be a daily bullish trend change and this would just
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be the current internal high so that would be the the level that would need
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to be wicked or broken um for there to be a bullish daily change character so
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obviously that's a very far far away level um by the time the daily property
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pulls all the way back up into here into this prior range up here it's probably
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likely that the daily low high is going to form right and we're going to
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continue to get that daily lower high movement there okay
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now what else can we do to potentially anticipate that the daily
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maple back of course we are in that weekly range demand but it's quite a
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large level so let's go and investigate um you know to see if we can refine this
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a little bit more and i'm going to delete the weekly box just because it's
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pretty large right so if we look at all of the daily candles within here it's
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quite efficient price action you can see it's pretty corrective okay there's
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nothing that massively massively stands out to me is very clear demand probably
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that the cleanest zone i could see would be this daily box here okay
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so why am i picking this zone uh and kind of why does it stand out to me as a
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potential daily point of interest that we can look at
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well a few reasons um one obviously like i was just saying right it's in the
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weekly demand level but if we investigate a little bit further right
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we'll just drag this out away for a second what can we see well
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we have this daily level here okay we drag it across again we can probably
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refine it a little bit more uh
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let's see no it doesn't quite touch it but essentially you can see that large
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buy to sell all right price obviously taps into it a few times um sure it's
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the daily zone but we can see this is really where that kind of momentum came
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in right just move it out of the way to end up taking out that supply and
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actually leading to the break of structure
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would also boost its probability but we have this structural low uh just above
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it so that acts as potential inducement to the zone okay there is a daily
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liquidity behind this level here right there cell stops just in front of our
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zone which um obviously is another tick in the box for increasing the potential
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probability of our poi and then another factor that
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i really like is it swept the liquidity behind these structural loads here okay
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when it was created so it's a flip zone right because i'm just draw this on so i
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can concentrate it's a flip zone because it took out this supply and obviously
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this weekly supply as well it's a structural zone because it led to
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the break of this daily high and essentially also that weekly high
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there as well okay so two ticks in a box two ticks two ticks and or whatever you
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know what i'm trying to say and then it also uh was a sweep zone right because
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it took the liquidity behind the slow here because you can see what would have
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happened at that point in the market as price moved up it pulled back and then
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essentially made that higher high there which then means liquidity in a lower
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timeframe builds below these lows and then prices come down it swept and
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spiked out or grabbed that liquidity and then that's led to fueling that move
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there to the upside right so we know we have now a structural zone a flip zone
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and a sweep zone right so all three in one essentially right um not the most
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amazing zone in the world in terms of it's not super you know clear um it
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price could potentially obviously come lower and reject to some of these wicks
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um and that's why you know i'm essentially happy this is what i mean by
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just taking that entire weekly range like here because
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you know price does not have to hit your refined zones for me to want to be
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interested if price comes into our weekly zone and then we start to see
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structures shifting to the upside on the lower timeframes right but we haven't
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hit potentially a refined zone i'm still happy to get involved in here right and
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bye because potentially we could still get a bit of a pullback then come lower
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right then tap into our daily zone right and then again if we start to see
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structure shift and lower time frames right then we can start buying again
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okay so um obviously the more refined of a demand zone that price hits then that
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obviously increases the probability of us actually timing that pullback kicking
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in okay so let's drag
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this daily zone across um okay so we've looked at the weekly in the daily chart
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we can see they're both heavily bearish and they're nowhere near making a
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bullish change of character yet however we are in currently sitting in a weekly
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range demand and we are approaching a refined daily demand level okay so let's
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drop down to the four-hour chart this obviously being one of my main time
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frames for focusing uh both on structure and of course uh pois
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so looking at the four-hour chart just gonna hide the daily line from here
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just to keep it nice and clear so hours and minutes there we go
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cool so if we look at structure what do we have
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we had lower lows pull back to form a lower high lower low
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lower high yes we just about closed below that low then we had a bullish
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trend change on a for our chart higher high higher low higher high pulled all
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the way back we didn't take out the low so the bullish trend continued then we
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took out that high to make a higher high and then we switched bearish because we
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took out this low here and we pull back to form a lower high lower low lower
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high and then this for me is all part of the down move okay now why do i say that
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well some of you may mark this out as a swing structure here right let's pull
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back here but if i measure it let's see how big that is um it's about 30 pips or
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so okay now um for me personally euro dollar on the 4
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hour chart i generally like to see at least a 40
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pip pullback as you guys will know right um so i try and keep it as mechanical as
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possible and because that's less than 40 pips for me especially when you kind of
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look at you know one thing you can use as well rather
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than just a pip count is to look at the the recent price action and kind of see
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you know how does it look relative to that and you can see the size of the
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pullbacks here right this is just a small small pause in price action
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00:17:05,120 --> 00:17:08,400
compared to these nice swings in price right this is a bit more of a convincing
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swing and whereas this is just an impulse down a quick sort of shadow
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pause correction and then we have another impulse down okay so at this
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current time just to keep it nice and clear this was our last four hour
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bearish break of structure to the downside
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okay and for me my four hour spring high
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would then be the highest point that took out this low after it formed so
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after it formed where's the highest point
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it's this point here okay so that is my four hour swing high and then because
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this is all part of the down move um you know where is my swing low but obviously
293
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it's the lowest point at the moment but essentially i won't mark it out until
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what until i see essentially you know more than a 40-pip pullback if that was
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to happen here then i can start to go okay well that's my swing low draw my
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line across then i know i'm trading within this high and this low here and
297
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i'm just waiting to see you know if we're going to continue uh that overall
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bearish trend right but just like i said on the weekly on the
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daily chart whatever we had we've had a four hour break of structure so what do
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we expect after breaking structure we expect to pull back on that time frame
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how can we anticipate when that pullback may be occurring from a market structure
302
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standpoint while we look for a bullish change of character okay so
303
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we've had this down move now technically there are you know some some changes are
304
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catching here because let's see we had a down move we pulled back okay so that's
305
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not we've pulled back there uh this is where it gets a bit messy because see
306
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this candle it takes the low and it takes the high so technically that is a
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bullish change of character in here but you can see it's just very very messy
308
00:18:30,320 --> 00:18:32,799
okay so you kind of have to read between the lines that you know nothing's really
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happened we haven't really gone anywhere and then we've dumped okay so at this
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point if i need to see a bullish change of character what high do i need to see
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go well the most recent internal high it's
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not that this one you can pick that one if you want it is a bit more prominent
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but for me i'm very very aggressive with my change of character line and i will
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use the most or i should say the nearest higher okay the most recent high and
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that for me would be this inside bar because what's happened is after this
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high formed here price has moved down and then it's pulled back up right with
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this inside bar because this inside bar this white candle
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you see how it fails to break this counters low right so that means there
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00:19:09,520 --> 00:19:13,039
was essentially an internal pullback there right so we have a down move
320
00:19:13,039 --> 00:19:17,440
we have an up move and then we have the down move okay so when i look back this
321
00:19:17,440 --> 00:19:21,200
is my most recent internal high okay now you can take this one above that's
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absolutely fine just be consistent if you do that but i'm happy to be very con
323
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uh you know very aggressive with my change of character because i just want
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to see that first first signal that potentially structure is shifting so i
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am aware that it is aggressive okay now i realize for some of you this is
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very very pedantic and over the top really going over this but it's just
327
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really important to drive these points home for some of you guys who are a bit
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00:19:41,919 --> 00:19:47,200
newer um just to really make sure you understand all of the subtle nuances um
329
00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:51,520
okay it is simple but yeah when you're first doing it um it's good to try try
330
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and fully understand it okay so super quick recap weekly daily for out
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all very very clearly bearish we're sitting in weekly demand but it's a
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massive massive level right um we are approaching that refined daily level um
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and essentially the four hour is extremely bearish now there are short
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00:20:06,799 --> 00:20:09,520
trades in here there's loads of other trades right that i'm going to go over
335
00:20:09,520 --> 00:20:12,559
but the whole lesson you know the key point i'm trying
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to i want you guys to take away from this specific video is understanding how
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we can trade counter trend to what is obviously a very impulsive and very
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00:20:20,640 --> 00:20:24,400
strong hard time frame trend okay so at this point if we're looking for
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00:20:24,400 --> 00:20:28,640
counter trend moves even if we're coming to a refined demand level i would still
340
00:20:28,640 --> 00:20:33,280
really want to see you know at least the m15 switching bullish um and if the m15
341
00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:36,159
is going to switch bullish what is that most likely going to be on the 4-hour
342
00:20:36,159 --> 00:20:39,200
chart it's most likely going to be a bullish change of character on a 4-hour
343
00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:41,919
chart okay so that's what we can wait for we can literally just sit on our
344
00:20:41,919 --> 00:20:44,720
hands continue to look for shorts and then wait for that bullish change of
345
00:20:44,720 --> 00:20:49,039
character okay now what has happened since i've played price forward
346
00:20:49,039 --> 00:20:52,799
its price has moved down we've had a counter internal pullback right because
347
00:20:52,799 --> 00:20:55,600
these counters have failed to break these candles low now we've taken the
348
00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:59,120
low so now where is my change of character line it's the it's the nearest
349
00:20:59,120 --> 00:21:03,840
internal lower high and it's this high here okay so my swing high is still all
350
00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:07,200
the way up here because we haven't had a 40 pit pullback yet but this would be my
351
00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:10,480
change of character line that i would need to see go okay all right we've
352
00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:14,480
continued bearish we're now tapping into daily demand okay tapping to daily mode
353
00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:17,200
we've had a bit of an internal pull back there with that inside bar okay now
354
00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:21,840
we've taken the low so you see how we came into demand this white candle was
355
00:21:21,840 --> 00:21:26,080
set inside bar it failed to take out that low okay so we've had a pullback
356
00:21:26,080 --> 00:21:29,200
and then we're taking that low there so this becomes my new change of character
357
00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:31,840
line
358
00:21:32,559 --> 00:21:34,960
all right there we go okay
359
00:21:34,960 --> 00:21:38,320
now other thing you notice as well is look
360
00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:42,320
at the size of the wick on this candle so if i just measure that
361
00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:46,799
that is a 35 pip wick on one for our candle now
362
00:21:46,799 --> 00:21:50,880
eurodollar is probably the one it is the most traded currency pair
363
00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:55,039
in the world right forex market it's about seven or eight trillion uh dollars
364
00:21:55,039 --> 00:21:59,280
worth of daily volume okay to move this currency pair that amount
365
00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:03,120
of pips it takes a hell of a lot of volume now the only thing i'll say is
366
00:22:03,120 --> 00:22:06,720
this candle did occur around the asian session so there is lower liquidity
367
00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:10,400
during that session which means it's easier for price to move a further
368
00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:13,679
distance right because there are less orders in the market at that time for
369
00:22:13,679 --> 00:22:17,679
price to have to battle with um but regardless it's still a pretty big
370
00:22:17,679 --> 00:22:21,360
reaction and that starts to give me a bit of a signal that potentially um you
371
00:22:21,360 --> 00:22:25,200
know demand uh is really stepping in now when this happens what you can also do
372
00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:29,520
is go and investigate uh look left and go well maybe did we reject off anything
373
00:22:29,520 --> 00:22:32,320
um that looks significant so we scroll all the way back on the for our chart
374
00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:35,760
and we can start to investigate all right it's training view sometimes
375
00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:38,880
messes around with these zones it can be a little bit glitchy but essentially
376
00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:42,000
that's the daily zone we're looking at right and we can look at did is there
377
00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:45,840
anything on the 4-hour chart uh that makes sense here that we reacted off
378
00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:50,159
right and we can see we have this extreme for our sweep zone down here
379
00:22:50,159 --> 00:22:54,240
okay so we have this four-hour demand zone
380
00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:58,559
nested within the daily zone right we're nestled within that daily flip zone
381
00:22:58,559 --> 00:23:02,080
now you can go and investigate a little bit further and you can go okay this is
382
00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:06,320
at the bottom of this pool back here now did this pullback react from anything on
383
00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:09,600
the 4-hour chart well if we go and look across what do we have we have this
384
00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:12,159
supply zone up here right
385
00:23:12,159 --> 00:23:14,640
you can refine it to the wick if you want to right
386
00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:17,679
and you can see that that was for our supply
387
00:23:17,679 --> 00:23:21,760
price came into it it reacted it tried to do its job it tried to make a lower
388
00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:24,640
low right tried to break this low but it failed to do so it failed to close below
389
00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:28,559
that low and then this is where what this is where loads of demand stepped in
390
00:23:28,559 --> 00:23:33,679
to cause that supply zone to fail right once we get a closure above the reaction
391
00:23:33,679 --> 00:23:36,799
this is the reaction from supply it failed to take out the low right
392
00:23:36,799 --> 00:23:39,919
filtered its job and then when demand steps in to cause price to then close
393
00:23:39,919 --> 00:23:44,240
above the reaction what has happened that is a supply to demand flip okay so
394
00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:47,679
anywhere in this entire cell to buy is essentially demand but obviously that's
395
00:23:47,679 --> 00:23:51,440
a huge level so we can refine it down to this extreme pivot demand and that's a
396
00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:54,720
really decent four hour flip at the extreme of the reaction leg and it's
397
00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:57,840
swept liquidity and of course you know went on to break daily and weekly
398
00:23:57,840 --> 00:24:01,360
structure so that's a very very solid refined level
399
00:24:01,360 --> 00:24:05,679
um so let's just drag this across okay now that the point i'm trying to make
400
00:24:05,679 --> 00:24:08,320
here right with especially with these levels as well is i'm not going to go
401
00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:12,240
back over here and draw on every single um you know four-hour zone that could
402
00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:15,600
potentially be here in this entire leg trying to anticipate and trying to catch
403
00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:19,360
where exactly the market's going to pull back right yes you can do that but i
404
00:24:19,360 --> 00:24:22,640
find it's very unnecessary so what i do instead this is what i'm saying right
405
00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:25,760
and prices heavily bearish keep looking for the the shorts right they're the
406
00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:29,600
easy sells but you also have to be aware that we could pull back at any point but
407
00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:33,279
i wait for price action to show me when it wants to pull back wait for these
408
00:24:33,279 --> 00:24:37,200
large big reactions and you know even now i'm not ready to jump in i'm just
409
00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:39,600
using this as that first signal that okay
410
00:24:39,600 --> 00:24:42,240
you know that's a big sign a big reaction that potentially we are gonna
411
00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:44,799
we are gonna pull back i'm gonna move this out the way right but i'm still
412
00:24:44,799 --> 00:24:47,440
gonna set my hands i'm going to wait for that four hour change of character you
413
00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:50,400
know ideally wait for the 15 minutes to start to switch bullish wait for the
414
00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:53,760
lower time frames to start to have that sustained bush order flow in order to
415
00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:56,880
increase their probability you know that we are going to get that pull back
416
00:24:56,880 --> 00:24:59,520
because this could go in and go in and go in and you're
417
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:02,080
going to get burnt trying to catch the bottom right
418
00:25:02,080 --> 00:25:04,400
so let's play your pass forward a little
419
00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:08,880
bit more and let's see what happens okay now we have finally had our first kind
420
00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:12,400
of sign that bullish structure right that structure may be shifting because
421
00:25:12,400 --> 00:25:16,000
we've had that bullish change of character to the upside now
422
00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:18,320
most likely bought with that bullish change of character in the lower time
423
00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:20,960
frames not always but it's most likely a
424
00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:23,279
breakage structure right on the 15-minute chart so let's go and
425
00:25:23,279 --> 00:25:27,600
investigate the 15-minute chart just tidy the line up a little bit and we can
426
00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:31,840
clearly see is that for our change of character is yes in fact
427
00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:37,440
a daily um sorry a m15 break of structure so i'm just going to draw on
428
00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:40,720
the m15 line instead
429
00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:45,039
uh boom there we go so you can see here right we had a lower
430
00:25:45,039 --> 00:25:50,320
low lower high lower low lower high lower low now just to quickly point out
431
00:25:50,320 --> 00:25:53,919
some of you may be going why didn't i call that lower low lower high lower low
432
00:25:53,919 --> 00:25:58,159
lower high lower low in here and it's because if you measure these right for
433
00:25:58,159 --> 00:26:03,200
me on the eu on the m15 i'd like to see at least a 15 pit pullback generally and
434
00:26:03,200 --> 00:26:06,720
you can measure that right that's okay that's about 15 pips so actually yeah
435
00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:10,000
that would probably be a swing pullback just about which you can mark that one
436
00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:13,600
and then let's see here um
437
00:26:13,600 --> 00:26:17,039
so that is 15 pips but actually it never broke the low so this is the higher case
438
00:26:17,039 --> 00:26:20,240
so this is how i would mark my swing structure it would be a lower low lower
439
00:26:20,240 --> 00:26:25,440
high lower low than if this is 15 pips that is a low lower high lower low but
440
00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:28,799
then we fail to break the lower right so this is all part of the pullback and
441
00:26:28,799 --> 00:26:31,919
then we go right all of these candles break the prior counters low
442
00:26:31,919 --> 00:26:35,039
so that is our swing high pricing comes back up you can see the size of the
443
00:26:35,039 --> 00:26:38,559
reaction here right and then we eventually get that bullish break
444
00:26:38,559 --> 00:26:43,039
structure so at this point we're heavily heavily bearish we tapped into weekly
445
00:26:43,039 --> 00:26:46,159
range demand a refined daily level within that and obviously a refined
446
00:26:46,159 --> 00:26:50,320
four-hour level uh within that we have waited for a four-hour bullish change of
447
00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:54,880
character which is a 15 minute break of structure so now the 15 minute is
448
00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:58,880
confirmed bullish for me because remember for a trend change i keep it
449
00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:03,200
very very simple all i need to see is a swing higher high form right for a
450
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:06,320
bullish trend change we've taken out the lower high we've closed above and we
451
00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:10,559
have a higher high so that for me is now confirming that the m15 is
452
00:27:10,559 --> 00:27:14,000
bullish however it's only one break of structure
453
00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:17,039
what can happen a lot of the times especially when the trend is very very
454
00:27:17,039 --> 00:27:20,320
strong is you can get one breaking structure like this then 15 can
455
00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:23,360
technically be bullish but it can just be a liquidity grab right it can tap
456
00:27:23,360 --> 00:27:25,360
into an old area of supply or potentially you know something on the
457
00:27:25,360 --> 00:27:29,360
four hour for instance and then it can just continue lower that's why one
458
00:27:29,360 --> 00:27:31,840
bullish break of structure on just the m15
459
00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:34,320
it's not necessarily the strongest signal that suddenly you know the weak
460
00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:36,559
he's going to pull back right because you're training against all of that
461
00:27:36,559 --> 00:27:40,640
momentum and if you actually go and study and investigate uh this price
462
00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:43,840
action around here like in fact i'll just go show you right there was a few
463
00:27:43,840 --> 00:27:47,360
times uh in that last week or two where we did in fact have a bullish break of
464
00:27:47,360 --> 00:27:51,600
stretch on m15 okay what do we have we took out this low here so this was our
465
00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:54,480
high all right if i draw the swing high across you can see here we switched
466
00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:58,080
bullish we had one bullish breaker structure in m15 and that for me is
467
00:27:58,080 --> 00:28:01,279
bullish and i was looking for a high low here to try and anticipate that for our
468
00:28:01,279 --> 00:28:05,679
pullback but in the end it didn't happen okay before i took control it was just a
469
00:28:05,679 --> 00:28:09,360
grab of liquidity we tapped into this decision supply zone okay and then the
470
00:28:09,360 --> 00:28:12,799
four-hour trend and daily trend continued melting so
471
00:28:12,799 --> 00:28:16,480
that is why one break of structure is not a lot of confirmation
472
00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:19,200
and this is why you're here right a lot of other people
473
00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:23,760
for that for them for there to be a confirmed trend change they don't only
474
00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:28,399
want to see a higher high they also want to see a high low so they need both a
475
00:28:28,399 --> 00:28:33,919
higher high and a high low but remember we do not know where the higher low is
476
00:28:33,919 --> 00:28:37,919
until it forms a higher high so what does that mean that means for them to
477
00:28:37,919 --> 00:28:41,600
have a trend change they need to see a double break of structure they would
478
00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:45,840
also need to see this this high go because once that high
479
00:28:45,840 --> 00:28:49,440
goes what would that give us right if price comes up here and closes above now
480
00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:52,480
we have a confirmed high low because we can look back and go okay that's a high
481
00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:56,399
low so you would have a higher high and a high low okay so for those people who
482
00:28:56,399 --> 00:29:00,480
need to see both are higher high and the higher low to confirm a trend change
483
00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:04,640
what do they need they need a double break of swing structure right and if
484
00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:06,720
you want to do it that way that's absolutely fine because it gives you a
485
00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:10,399
hell of a lot more confirmation but just being you know honest with you guys or
486
00:29:10,399 --> 00:29:14,000
transparent whether the word is right i like to see just one break of structure
487
00:29:14,000 --> 00:29:18,240
and for me i keep it very simple that is confirming right now for me the m15 is
488
00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:22,399
bullish for me we are playing within this swing high here and this swing low
489
00:29:22,399 --> 00:29:26,960
here but even though it's bullish i am very very aware that we have only
490
00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:30,559
had one break of structurally m15 and i'm trying to essentially
491
00:29:30,559 --> 00:29:34,559
pick the bottom of that weekly daily for our momentum with just an m15 breaking
492
00:29:34,559 --> 00:29:37,840
shot shirt so it's not a lot so you want more and well within your rights right
493
00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:40,480
to start looking for you know potentially old demand levels within
494
00:29:40,480 --> 00:29:44,320
here to potentially try and catch and anticipate where that m15 high low is
495
00:29:44,320 --> 00:29:47,919
going to form and try and get in early but you do not have to okay and that's
496
00:29:47,919 --> 00:29:50,960
the kind of the purpose of this this lesson this video here is showing you
497
00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:54,799
how much how patient we can be to just setting your hands for a couple
498
00:29:54,799 --> 00:29:58,240
days and really let price action develop before potentially you may even want to
499
00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:02,159
consider trying to buy this price action and trying to anticipate that the
500
00:30:02,159 --> 00:30:05,520
four-hour chart and the daily chart are going to pull back okay so yes you can
501
00:30:05,520 --> 00:30:08,399
look for longs but let's just concentrate on the high quality moves
502
00:30:08,399 --> 00:30:11,679
okay because very easily price could continue to dump from here uh and
503
00:30:11,679 --> 00:30:16,559
continue going down so let's pretty plus forward a little bit and see what
504
00:30:16,559 --> 00:30:20,080
happens almost there okay boom so now what do we
505
00:30:20,080 --> 00:30:24,159
have we have a confirmed double break of structure which gives us what we now
506
00:30:24,159 --> 00:30:28,240
have both a higher high and we look back where was the lowest point that took out
507
00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:31,440
this high after it was formed this is the lowest point the case and now we
508
00:30:31,440 --> 00:30:34,399
also have a higher low so with that double break of structure we have a hell
509
00:30:34,399 --> 00:30:38,640
of a lot more confirmation that potentially the m15 is pulling back okay
510
00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:40,960
so let's make sure price is pulling back a
511
00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:44,080
decent amount okay so this is most likely going to be my next swing range
512
00:30:44,080 --> 00:30:47,520
so as i'm coming into into price action right obviously we've already marked out
513
00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:50,080
the current bearish ranges that we are within both
514
00:30:50,080 --> 00:30:53,279
the weekly the daily and the four hour um we've now had a double break of
515
00:30:53,279 --> 00:30:57,039
structural m15 and now i want to mark out what range am i currently within so
516
00:30:57,039 --> 00:31:00,159
where was the lowest point that took out this high it's this point here okay so
517
00:31:00,159 --> 00:31:04,159
this is the m15 swing range we are currently playing within so what i'm
518
00:31:04,159 --> 00:31:07,279
going to do is i'm just going to play price forward to about 6 or 7 a.m when i
519
00:31:07,279 --> 00:31:11,919
get to my desk in the morning just to kind of show you my thought process
520
00:31:11,919 --> 00:31:15,360
okay so like i just said we've done all of that hard time analysis we know what
521
00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:18,159
range we're within and now what i want to do the thought process i'm going
522
00:31:18,159 --> 00:31:23,039
through is i want to catch the m15 high low wherever i made that may form right
523
00:31:23,039 --> 00:31:26,799
to try and get that next higher high right to anticipate that four hour
524
00:31:26,799 --> 00:31:30,799
pullback so at a minimum i want to catch the m15 high low and i want to target a
525
00:31:30,799 --> 00:31:34,960
higher high so i'm going to take a head for me personally i'm going to take a
526
00:31:34,960 --> 00:31:38,159
lot of my profits off the table i'm going to partial a heavy amount of my
527
00:31:38,159 --> 00:31:42,399
volume if i catch the high low i'm going to target this high here and take a hell
528
00:31:42,399 --> 00:31:46,159
of a lot of volume off because i'm training so heavily counter trend i
529
00:31:46,159 --> 00:31:49,279
accept that i might leave a lot of profit on the table because we could go
530
00:31:49,279 --> 00:31:53,519
on to have a very steep part-time frame pullback um but for me personally i'm
531
00:31:53,519 --> 00:31:57,279
happy just to be pretty aggressive and take my profits off here and then if we
532
00:31:57,279 --> 00:32:00,399
do go on to form a higher high then what do i do i just mark out the new range
533
00:32:00,399 --> 00:32:04,480
wheel within i wait for price to pull back i try and buy the high low and then
534
00:32:04,480 --> 00:32:08,399
i target a higher higher m15 and again i take off my profits very heavily because
535
00:32:08,399 --> 00:32:11,919
at any point right we could start to break stretch to the downside that daily
536
00:32:11,919 --> 00:32:15,039
four hour lower high may be in place right and we can go
537
00:32:15,039 --> 00:32:17,200
okay i'm getting a little bit ahead of myself here talking about management but
538
00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:20,880
let's concentrate again um on the entry so
539
00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:25,200
we know we're within this bullish swing range um we're pulling back so where are
540
00:32:25,200 --> 00:32:29,360
the pois in which we can look for to look to get along quick sound check you
541
00:32:29,360 --> 00:32:32,080
can do is draw on your premium discount tool okay from the swing low to the
542
00:32:32,080 --> 00:32:35,919
swing high we know this is with the equilibrium so ideally especially when
543
00:32:35,919 --> 00:32:39,120
we're training so heavily hard time frame counter trend ideally we want to
544
00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:43,279
be looking for pois um below this line okay so first one that stands out to me
545
00:32:43,279 --> 00:32:47,360
is this demand level here and then we've got one down here okay so let's draw on
546
00:32:47,360 --> 00:32:52,960
this first one here and we have this nice clean m15 level so
547
00:32:52,960 --> 00:32:56,399
how can we validate this a little bit more let's look for some confluence well
548
00:32:56,399 --> 00:32:58,880
um obviously it's kind of part of this pullback that led to the breakage
549
00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:02,559
structure so it is a structural zone is it a flip zone well
550
00:33:02,559 --> 00:33:05,919
this is the pullback okay look at look at the the pullback essentially to see
551
00:33:05,919 --> 00:33:08,559
what it reacted to so that's the reaction and then this is the extreme of
552
00:33:08,559 --> 00:33:12,080
that reaction leg okay this being the reaction leg this is the extreme of it
553
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:15,360
that when then went on to break the height so what did this react to well
554
00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:21,120
let's look left it reacted to this supply zone here okay
555
00:33:21,919 --> 00:33:25,600
so we have this supply zone here it's a decent level as well right this is
556
00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:28,640
supply because it led to the break of that low so that's a decent supply level
557
00:33:28,640 --> 00:33:32,080
price comes in it reacts from it it tries to do its job it tries to make a
558
00:33:32,080 --> 00:33:36,240
lower low it fails to do so and somewhere within this whole cell to buy
559
00:33:36,240 --> 00:33:40,240
is where the demand stepped in to cause this supply to fail right so the moment
560
00:33:40,240 --> 00:33:43,840
we close above the reaction so this is the reaction the moment we close above
561
00:33:43,840 --> 00:33:47,840
it here what has happened this supply zone has failed and demand has taken
562
00:33:47,840 --> 00:33:51,600
control okay so it's a supply to demand flip and anywhere essentially within
563
00:33:51,600 --> 00:33:54,799
this whole cell to buy is where that demand stepped in but obviously we can
564
00:33:54,799 --> 00:33:58,960
refine it a little bit more down to this m15 extreme okay so it's a structural
565
00:33:58,960 --> 00:34:01,679
zone it led to the breaker structure it's a flip zone because it caused the
566
00:34:01,679 --> 00:34:06,159
supply zone to fail what also uh has it done you can see it grabbed the
567
00:34:06,159 --> 00:34:11,679
liquidity when it created uh the zone below this swing low here okay
568
00:34:11,679 --> 00:34:14,639
so there's obviously a bit of a bullish move here intraday on the lower time
569
00:34:14,639 --> 00:34:18,399
frames there would have been liquidity building behind that intraday low there
570
00:34:18,399 --> 00:34:22,159
pricing came down flushed out all of those orders grabbed the liquidity to
571
00:34:22,159 --> 00:34:25,599
then fuel that move to the upside decay so we have a structure zone a flip zone
572
00:34:25,599 --> 00:34:28,320
and a sweep zone right i'm just going to delete this premium discount just to
573
00:34:28,320 --> 00:34:32,399
keep charts nice and clear now what also do we have well you can see we have
574
00:34:32,399 --> 00:34:36,000
these these structural lows right this low just above it above it uh giving us
575
00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:39,119
some inducement but you can see we started to build almost that double
576
00:34:39,119 --> 00:34:42,320
bottom right um sitting above it as well just
577
00:34:42,320 --> 00:34:45,760
generating more liquidity because anyone who's already long right where the
578
00:34:45,760 --> 00:34:48,320
stock's most likely going to be there's going to be a lot of cell stops below
579
00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:51,760
that low okay so tons of liquidity there and also anyone trying to sell the
580
00:34:51,760 --> 00:34:55,440
breakout right so that's a decent level and then the next level i'd be looking
581
00:34:55,440 --> 00:35:01,520
at is this one below down here um nearer to the extreme okay
582
00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:05,599
another decent level um also very similarly you can see it's a
583
00:35:05,599 --> 00:35:08,640
bit more messy but you can essentially see it was a flip zone because if you
584
00:35:08,640 --> 00:35:12,240
look right this this is how i do it right this is the zone that i'm looking
585
00:35:12,240 --> 00:35:16,000
at it's essentially part of this leg pretty much so what did this leg react
586
00:35:16,000 --> 00:35:20,720
to look left okay there's a supply zone there essentially that does qualify um
587
00:35:20,720 --> 00:35:23,280
as a flip zone it is a little bit more messier
588
00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:26,480
but you can see that right that's the reaction um and then we get that
589
00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:29,440
movement to the upside uh also have inducement
590
00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:32,160
above it uh it's a decent zone and you know potentially in the back of my mind
591
00:35:32,160 --> 00:35:35,359
as well i would be keeping a very very uh loose eye on this extreme though as
592
00:35:35,359 --> 00:35:38,160
well because there could be something in that wick
593
00:35:38,160 --> 00:35:40,640
so what i do is i set my alert right on
594
00:35:40,640 --> 00:35:44,240
this poi and i wait for price to come into it and then i wait for my lower
595
00:35:44,240 --> 00:35:47,839
time frame uh execution model so let's jump down
596
00:35:47,839 --> 00:35:52,079
or yeah let's go down to the m1 hopefully it will load for me there we
597
00:35:52,079 --> 00:35:55,920
go okay so obviously this blue box first blue box
598
00:35:55,920 --> 00:36:00,480
being my poi so i'm going to play price forward um until we come down into the
599
00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:04,000
zone and see if we get any reaction okay so
600
00:36:04,000 --> 00:36:08,240
tucked into the zone my alert's gone off so quickly have a look um we can see
601
00:36:08,240 --> 00:36:12,160
right we've swept those m15 lows coming into our poi we also have kind of these
602
00:36:12,160 --> 00:36:14,960
nearer m1 loads as well right so almost another double bottom here which is
603
00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:19,839
decent that's a big liquidation coming into our higher time frame mitigation so
604
00:36:19,839 --> 00:36:22,800
i've seen pretty much everything i need to see from that point so now what i'm
605
00:36:22,800 --> 00:36:26,000
waiting for is just a little bit more confirmation to tell me that the zone is
606
00:36:26,000 --> 00:36:28,640
going to hold and to obviously help me with refinement
607
00:36:28,640 --> 00:36:32,640
so i can get a tighter stop loss to to boost my risk reward because obviously i
608
00:36:32,640 --> 00:36:36,560
want to maximize the roi on the amount of time i've spent you know analyzing
609
00:36:36,560 --> 00:36:40,880
and being patient um so that's why i want to get you know as
610
00:36:40,880 --> 00:36:44,640
tight as a top as tight as a stop as possible with the
611
00:36:44,640 --> 00:36:48,000
words i was looking for there right so at this point we're coming
612
00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:51,599
what's the first thing you guys know i need to see i need to see a bullish if
613
00:36:51,599 --> 00:36:54,400
i'm looking to get long right i need to see a bullish change of character
614
00:36:54,400 --> 00:36:58,160
on the time frame that i'm looking to enter on so where is that bullet change
615
00:36:58,160 --> 00:37:01,440
of character line going to be it's going to be the nearest internal higher okay
616
00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:04,400
so some of you may be looking at this high all the way up here that for me is
617
00:37:04,400 --> 00:37:08,000
more of an m1 swing high okay so that would be an m1 break of structure that's
618
00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:11,520
cool but remember i want to be very very aggressive with my m1 change of
619
00:37:11,520 --> 00:37:15,280
character because i'm just looking for that first little little indication that
620
00:37:15,280 --> 00:37:20,240
structure is shifting in my favor and we get that first internal higher high
621
00:37:20,240 --> 00:37:24,000
so for me that level is this high here okay because you can see price comes
622
00:37:24,000 --> 00:37:27,839
down little pullback price comes down a little pullback and then all of these
623
00:37:27,839 --> 00:37:31,040
candles break the prior candles low so at this point this is the most recent
624
00:37:31,040 --> 00:37:37,839
internal lower high that i want to see go so draw my level across from there
625
00:37:37,920 --> 00:37:41,440
all right that's my truck line so i'm not going to do anything unless that
626
00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:45,200
high goes i just need to see price wicket okay okay boom nice close above
627
00:37:45,200 --> 00:37:49,760
that so now right liquidation hard time frame mitigation
628
00:37:49,760 --> 00:37:52,240
change of character so now i've seen everything i need to
629
00:37:52,240 --> 00:37:56,480
see now it's just a case of okay where do i enter right everything's on my side
630
00:37:56,480 --> 00:38:00,560
where do i get in and where is price most likely gonna pull back to mitigate
631
00:38:00,560 --> 00:38:04,960
so there's kind of two way two levels you can look at one is the extreme right
632
00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:08,320
this is always going to be you know generally highest probability um because
633
00:38:08,320 --> 00:38:10,960
you're entering essentially the invalidation point so
634
00:38:10,960 --> 00:38:14,800
what do i mean by that well what i mean is that if you enter here
635
00:38:14,800 --> 00:38:18,480
right let's just say you put your stop to pip stop
636
00:38:18,480 --> 00:38:22,560
all right what i mean by validation point is that if price was to come down
637
00:38:22,560 --> 00:38:26,240
tag you in but then stop you out you've got in at like pretty much the last
638
00:38:26,240 --> 00:38:28,800
point that price is going to hold if this if this trade is gonna you know
639
00:38:28,800 --> 00:38:31,200
this trade idea is gonna be correct because if we break this we're probably
640
00:38:31,200 --> 00:38:35,119
coming lower okay whereas if you enter somewhere higher in the leg um
641
00:38:35,119 --> 00:38:38,000
you know price could react it could tag you in stop you out and then it could
642
00:38:38,000 --> 00:38:41,760
come here and go so this is why entering on extreme is always highest probability
643
00:38:41,760 --> 00:38:44,720
price comes that low because you're going to know if you're wrong
644
00:38:44,720 --> 00:38:47,520
straight away and you only have to take one hit whereas you rent a high up in
645
00:38:47,520 --> 00:38:51,040
the leg potentially you may take both right but you could end up being wrong
646
00:38:51,040 --> 00:38:55,040
both times and then you've taken a minus two hour loss so maybe you're someone
647
00:38:55,040 --> 00:38:57,839
who wants to keep your strike rate as high as possible then yes i would
648
00:38:57,839 --> 00:39:01,040
recommend you always enter on the extreme of the move or you have your
649
00:39:01,040 --> 00:39:03,119
stop below the low because that is always going to give you your higher
650
00:39:03,119 --> 00:39:07,280
strike rate but what you have to accept is you may miss a lot of moves that do
651
00:39:07,280 --> 00:39:11,119
come back and react from something what i call a decision all right something
652
00:39:11,119 --> 00:39:14,320
higher in the leg because price a lot of times will come in here and go but you
653
00:39:14,320 --> 00:39:17,680
just have to accept that and that's and that's the toss-up between how high of a
654
00:39:17,680 --> 00:39:21,920
strike rate you want um and kind of just you know finding that balance right
655
00:39:21,920 --> 00:39:26,160
so at this point my question is okay i know i'd prefer to enter us on extreme
656
00:39:26,160 --> 00:39:29,520
but we could react off the decisional and go because what do we have we have a
657
00:39:29,520 --> 00:39:32,480
sweep zone there right we have the supply level here
658
00:39:32,480 --> 00:39:35,599
um which we can see price reacted from you could take that whole range because
659
00:39:35,599 --> 00:39:38,960
it is a little bit small right sometimes i prefer to do that as well especially
660
00:39:38,960 --> 00:39:42,560
when you know if you measure these candles right that's not even half a pip
661
00:39:42,560 --> 00:39:45,440
this tends to happen because you can see this is kind of just before 7am london
662
00:39:45,440 --> 00:39:48,400
time this is kind of pretty much kind of the tail end of the asian session and
663
00:39:48,400 --> 00:39:51,520
although i'm zoomed in and they look like very big candles this is a tiny
664
00:39:51,520 --> 00:39:55,680
tiny range it's looking like a few pips here it's very very low volume right so
665
00:39:55,680 --> 00:39:59,280
when price comes in here yes that is a valid flip zone and that is a valid
666
00:39:59,280 --> 00:40:02,880
entry it's a valid flip right mark where the point of the reaction is to the base
667
00:40:02,880 --> 00:40:06,480
of the reaction price breaks and closes up above the reaction that shows me that
668
00:40:06,480 --> 00:40:09,440
supply failed to do its job right because we've come in
669
00:40:09,440 --> 00:40:12,880
we've reacted we tried to make a lower low we failed to do so and boom that's
670
00:40:12,880 --> 00:40:16,319
where some demand stepped in and let's change the character so yes you can
671
00:40:16,319 --> 00:40:19,280
enter here now the reason why i didn't enter in
672
00:40:19,280 --> 00:40:22,560
here is mainly because one of the reasons is
673
00:40:22,560 --> 00:40:26,319
because um the volume was so low it was kind of the tenant of asia um and this
674
00:40:26,319 --> 00:40:30,560
for me that reaction was it was barely half a pip right uh that didn't really
675
00:40:30,560 --> 00:40:33,280
fill me with much confidence that there was much of it you know that battle
676
00:40:33,280 --> 00:40:36,160
between supply and demand there it's not really going to take much for price to
677
00:40:36,160 --> 00:40:40,560
push up through that and also what's really key here is the reaction didn't
678
00:40:40,560 --> 00:40:45,440
sweep any liquidity okay so you can see price came in it pulls back and then
679
00:40:45,440 --> 00:40:48,720
this is all part of the up move so we never take out a low right we never
680
00:40:48,720 --> 00:40:52,480
sweep some liquidity so what you'd see often is price would
681
00:40:52,480 --> 00:40:57,200
react it'll move up a little bit then it comes down it sweeps this low here right
682
00:40:57,200 --> 00:41:00,880
it takes the liquidity that would have formed below that low and then we go
683
00:41:00,880 --> 00:41:04,560
that here then becomes a really decent flip zone because it's a sweep zone
684
00:41:04,560 --> 00:41:07,920
within the flip right the flip essentially grabs liquidity so if we're
685
00:41:07,920 --> 00:41:11,280
trying to make that clear a price would come in to supply it would react it
686
00:41:11,280 --> 00:41:14,240
would make a kind of try to make a bit of a not move there then it would come
687
00:41:14,240 --> 00:41:17,680
down it would sweep the liquidity below that low then we would have the confirm
688
00:41:17,680 --> 00:41:22,319
flip and then this would be the area right in which i'd want to enter
689
00:41:22,319 --> 00:41:25,839
here because that flip grab liquidity and it's a sweep zone when that happens
690
00:41:25,839 --> 00:41:29,040
that is when you can take flip stones with a a lot more conviction and a lot
691
00:41:29,040 --> 00:41:31,920
more higher probability that we are going to wrap from here and we're not
692
00:41:31,920 --> 00:41:35,680
going to come down to the extreme now in my plan i do not have that as a strict
693
00:41:35,680 --> 00:41:39,359
criteria flip zones do not have to sweep the quality for me but i know a lot of
694
00:41:39,359 --> 00:41:43,359
you do have that and i do recommend it because it really does help um i like to
695
00:41:43,359 --> 00:41:47,200
use personally a little bit of discretion in these scenarios um
696
00:41:47,200 --> 00:41:50,240
because i've seen plenty of times where the flip zone and the decisional will
697
00:41:50,240 --> 00:41:52,720
play out even though it doesn't sweep okay but that's just something that will
698
00:41:52,720 --> 00:41:55,760
come with time and experience so for for when you're starting new and when you
699
00:41:55,760 --> 00:41:58,079
when you want to keep things very mechanical and you want to keep the
700
00:41:58,079 --> 00:42:00,720
strike rate as high as possible i probably would recommend that you have
701
00:42:00,720 --> 00:42:02,880
that rule in your plan when you're starting out and you can obviously
702
00:42:02,880 --> 00:42:06,240
change it later so that rule would be that you will only take the decision or
703
00:42:06,240 --> 00:42:10,160
flip zone up here if it sweeps liquidity okay in this case it didn't so then you
704
00:42:10,160 --> 00:42:13,599
would look to take the extreme i looked to take the extreme in this simple case
705
00:42:13,599 --> 00:42:17,359
because yes one it didn't switch litty but two you can see here right how big a
706
00:42:17,359 --> 00:42:20,079
two pip stop is just to show you how low the volume is that for me was just
707
00:42:20,079 --> 00:42:23,839
wasn't really a significant flip it was barely a reaction belly movement um and
708
00:42:23,839 --> 00:42:27,920
the extreme looked a hell of a lot clearer to me um and yeah you know it
709
00:42:27,920 --> 00:42:32,000
was barely even 7am at that point um so yeah this is essentially why i look to
710
00:42:32,000 --> 00:42:36,160
take the extreme there so you can see how now how now we've built the idea
711
00:42:36,160 --> 00:42:39,920
we set our entry order we've been super patient uh and then we get tagged into
712
00:42:39,920 --> 00:42:43,440
the trade now you should not even be looking at taking a trade if you don't
713
00:42:43,440 --> 00:42:46,480
even know where you would be looking to target and where you'll be looking to
714
00:42:46,480 --> 00:42:50,240
exit if you don't know your exit plan before you've even entered the trade
715
00:42:50,240 --> 00:42:52,880
you're fighting an uphill battle because the moment you are in a trade your
716
00:42:52,880 --> 00:42:56,400
emotions are going to be way way higher you're going to be completely attached
717
00:42:56,400 --> 00:43:00,000
to the position going in a certain direction right going to a certain level
718
00:43:00,000 --> 00:43:02,720
and you're not going to be thinking as clearly so this is why you need to have
719
00:43:02,720 --> 00:43:05,520
a very clear management in your plan where you're you know exactly what
720
00:43:05,520 --> 00:43:09,200
you're going to do you need to be removing risk the exact same way every
721
00:43:09,200 --> 00:43:12,560
single time okay so are you going to be someone who is going to trail to break
722
00:43:12,560 --> 00:43:15,760
even right to remove your risk if so when are you going to do that are you
723
00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:18,480
going to do it the moment we take out that first high here then are you going
724
00:43:18,480 --> 00:43:22,640
to trail it or are you going to wait for an m15 high or so on and so forth or are
725
00:43:22,640 --> 00:43:26,160
you someone who's going to take partials okay are you going to take partials when
726
00:43:26,160 --> 00:43:30,160
price hits a certain structural level or are you going to use the fixed r method
727
00:43:30,160 --> 00:43:35,760
right well you always take off say 25 um at 4r or 5r for example okay just
728
00:43:35,760 --> 00:43:39,200
make sure you know what you're doing um i personally would recommend the partial
729
00:43:39,200 --> 00:43:42,480
method with with fixed star so i would say
730
00:43:42,480 --> 00:43:46,800
when price gets to 4r take 25 percent of your volume off and that will cover you
731
00:43:46,800 --> 00:43:50,240
for breakeven because then if price was to come back down it could potentially
732
00:43:50,240 --> 00:43:53,520
do this and continue and you're still in the trade yes you do sacrifice some of
733
00:43:53,520 --> 00:43:55,920
the potential reward because you have less volume on a trade if it goes in
734
00:43:55,920 --> 00:43:59,040
your favor um but anyway that's that's a lesson for another part of the course
735
00:43:59,040 --> 00:44:02,000
right the management module i don't want to get too sidetracked here this is more
736
00:44:02,000 --> 00:44:05,119
about focusing on really letting the hard time frame story build and being
737
00:44:05,119 --> 00:44:08,800
super patient before you look for you know that counter-trend move and we have
738
00:44:08,800 --> 00:44:13,599
a super clean trade right m15 mitigation really nice m15 poi right it's swept
739
00:44:13,599 --> 00:44:18,880
liquidity it was a flip it led to a break of structure we have inducement um
740
00:44:18,880 --> 00:44:22,160
in front of it okay so again we have a sweet we sweep here we took out this
741
00:44:22,160 --> 00:44:25,599
supply we led to a break of structure we had these big double bottoms forming in
742
00:44:25,599 --> 00:44:30,560
front of it right beautiful inducement we then got an m1 liquidation um
743
00:44:30,560 --> 00:44:33,280
nice v-shape in v-shape out that's another thing i forgot to mention which
744
00:44:33,280 --> 00:44:36,560
is really important okay because it shows the aggression of the demand being
745
00:44:36,560 --> 00:44:40,000
filled big imbalance between supply and demand there change of character there
746
00:44:40,000 --> 00:44:43,280
was a flip but it was it was very very weak not one that i like it didn't take
747
00:44:43,280 --> 00:44:46,800
any liquidity beautiful extreme zone there right nice big wicks what i love
748
00:44:46,800 --> 00:44:51,760
to see um real clean zone there and then take partials at 4 5r whatever
749
00:44:51,760 --> 00:44:54,720
you like to do okay and then where we're going to target well remember what i was
750
00:44:54,720 --> 00:44:58,160
saying a little bit earlier is that when i'm trading heavily heavily counter
751
00:44:58,160 --> 00:45:02,319
trend the only thing that's bullish at the moment in terms of uh you know the
752
00:45:02,319 --> 00:45:06,560
time frames i use for structure if these are going to load for me is the the m15
753
00:45:06,560 --> 00:45:13,079
remember we're trading heavily against the 4r and the daily chart
754
00:45:19,599 --> 00:45:24,160
okay finally got that to load so yeah we're currently i tell you what
755
00:45:24,160 --> 00:45:27,200
i'll fire up the wrist raw tool on there so you can see exactly what's going on
756
00:45:27,200 --> 00:45:31,359
here uh 15. there we go
757
00:45:31,359 --> 00:45:35,040
okay so if we jump back to the 15 where's my target going to be um like i
758
00:45:35,040 --> 00:45:38,079
said i'm going to be targeting that higher high right and that gives me over
759
00:45:38,079 --> 00:45:40,880
10r 10r is an amazing trade by anyone's
760
00:45:40,880 --> 00:45:45,359
standards i don't care who you are um you know you can make an insane living
761
00:45:45,359 --> 00:45:49,119
off tanar so yeah just keep it simple targeting that
762
00:45:49,119 --> 00:45:52,720
higher high i'm gonna bank the majority of my volume up there i accept that i
763
00:45:52,720 --> 00:45:56,400
may be leaving a lot of prof uh profit potential on here in case we do end up
764
00:45:56,400 --> 00:46:00,079
having a real deep four hour daily and weekly pullback but that's okay i'm
765
00:46:00,079 --> 00:46:03,520
happy to just continue to play whatever range we are within wait for price to
766
00:46:03,520 --> 00:46:06,800
pull back catch it target the next height right know which range we're in
767
00:46:06,800 --> 00:46:10,240
again wait for a price to pull back try and catch the m15 high low target the
768
00:46:10,240 --> 00:46:13,599
high because at any point right that four hour lower high can form and then
769
00:46:13,599 --> 00:46:16,400
we're ready to go down because there's been a series of mitigations coming
770
00:46:16,400 --> 00:46:19,680
along the way all of that demand has then been mitigated so what does that
771
00:46:19,680 --> 00:46:22,960
mean it means there's tons of sell side liquidity building below those lows so
772
00:46:22,960 --> 00:46:26,319
when that lower higher than forms when we mitigate a decent level of hard time
773
00:46:26,319 --> 00:46:30,400
frame supply up here and price is ready to go that means there is no this is
774
00:46:30,400 --> 00:46:33,839
getting really really messy it's like a picasso drawing but there's no demand
775
00:46:33,839 --> 00:46:37,839
left for price uh to stop price okay because it's all being mitigated you see
776
00:46:37,839 --> 00:46:40,720
her here this sign would have been demand it's being mitigated so if we
777
00:46:40,720 --> 00:46:44,000
move up and we pull back in to form another level demand react we come off
778
00:46:44,000 --> 00:46:47,680
and again we come in we react we come off but then we come up into a higher
779
00:46:47,680 --> 00:46:51,680
timeframe level of supply to form that lower high when prices then coming down
780
00:46:51,680 --> 00:46:55,680
there's no demand here left to stop price or to slow price down because it's
781
00:46:55,680 --> 00:46:58,960
all being mitigated and that's all the liquidity building right all of the cell
782
00:46:58,960 --> 00:47:02,240
stops that price then triggers cascades all of those orders and then you see
783
00:47:02,240 --> 00:47:05,119
that aggressive move to the downside okay i'm getting a little bit ahead of
784
00:47:05,119 --> 00:47:08,560
myself there with management but yeah that's essentially what's going on
785
00:47:08,560 --> 00:47:11,920
there with liquidity and that is why the market moves the way it does it's why we
786
00:47:11,920 --> 00:47:15,680
see such corrective moves back right mitigating all those levels of demand
787
00:47:15,680 --> 00:47:19,359
and then when we tap that overwhelming amount of hard time frame supply right
788
00:47:19,359 --> 00:47:22,720
that overpowers demand when price comes down it's a vacuum there are no buy
789
00:47:22,720 --> 00:47:26,319
orders left in the market or very little right it's all just those sell stops
790
00:47:26,319 --> 00:47:29,359
right and then price has that impulsive move to the downside as they all get
791
00:47:29,359 --> 00:47:32,559
cascaded and they all get slammed okay so that is what is going on there and
792
00:47:32,559 --> 00:47:35,440
that's why we see markets impulse correct
793
00:47:35,440 --> 00:47:40,880
impulse correct impulse okay that's what's going on there so
794
00:47:40,880 --> 00:47:43,520
we're in that trade we're targeting that high so let's play price forward a
795
00:47:43,520 --> 00:47:46,160
little bit now if you are someone who wants to push this trade a little bit
796
00:47:46,160 --> 00:47:50,559
higher right where can we potentially use some hard time frame targets um yeah
797
00:47:50,559 --> 00:47:55,040
to target if this will load for me
798
00:47:58,000 --> 00:48:01,839
okay there we go training views messing me around a little bit but
799
00:48:01,839 --> 00:48:04,720
okay so remember the swing range we are within
800
00:48:04,720 --> 00:48:07,520
on the four-hour chart it's actually quite a big one right if i mark on the
801
00:48:07,520 --> 00:48:10,640
premium discount we have this swing higher here all the way down to the
802
00:48:10,640 --> 00:48:14,800
swing low here so a very very logical thing to do would be okay if we've
803
00:48:14,800 --> 00:48:18,240
caught potentially the the load to try and catch that
804
00:48:18,240 --> 00:48:22,000
pullback where can we reasonably expect price to pull back into well potentially
805
00:48:22,000 --> 00:48:24,800
wants to pull back up into the premium prices right so that's a pretty decent
806
00:48:24,800 --> 00:48:28,400
target but of course what do we know when price is very very impulsive
807
00:48:28,400 --> 00:48:31,119
eurodollar doesn't always pull back that deep okay
808
00:48:31,119 --> 00:48:35,040
so yes it is logical to target up here but you want to pay yourself on the way
809
00:48:35,040 --> 00:48:38,720
and not swing for the fences when you're trading heavily heavily counter trend
810
00:48:38,720 --> 00:48:41,520
now another thing you can do especially when we have such a large swing range
811
00:48:41,520 --> 00:48:45,520
like this is you can take the internal leg okay because remember this isn't a
812
00:48:45,520 --> 00:48:48,720
swing high it's just an internal height right and you can measure this leg and
813
00:48:48,720 --> 00:48:52,160
then you can potentially target the eq or the premium prices of this internal
814
00:48:52,160 --> 00:48:56,160
leg now what is the nearest supply poi that we have on the floor chart it would
815
00:48:56,160 --> 00:48:59,680
be this bullish buy to sell candle here okay that would
816
00:48:59,680 --> 00:49:04,480
be my nearest poi and where potentially we could pull back to right and form
817
00:49:04,480 --> 00:49:07,839
that lower high and then go on to take this weak low why
818
00:49:07,839 --> 00:49:10,559
is it a week four hour low well of course it hasn't done its job it hasn't
819
00:49:10,559 --> 00:49:15,040
taken out that high um yet okay so that's a pretty decent target let's
820
00:49:15,040 --> 00:49:19,040
jump down to the 15 minute and see if we can refine that four-hour zone a little
821
00:49:19,040 --> 00:49:22,160
bit more and see if there's anything in there well look i'm just gonna delete
822
00:49:22,160 --> 00:49:26,640
the premium discount because i like to keep my charts as fresh clean and as
823
00:49:26,640 --> 00:49:30,480
simple as possible so yeah this is our zone we can refine it a little bit more
824
00:49:30,480 --> 00:49:35,520
it's quite a big candle but you can see this huge uh m15 inside bar clearly
825
00:49:35,520 --> 00:49:39,280
showing that that's where some supply came into the market so you can target
826
00:49:39,280 --> 00:49:42,400
that level right as well you don't have to partial heavily or you can just leave
827
00:49:42,400 --> 00:49:47,200
your remaining volume right it gives you around 23r to the edge to the distal of
828
00:49:47,200 --> 00:49:50,480
that m15 poi so just gonna play price forward a
829
00:49:50,480 --> 00:49:53,119
little bit now um again there's loads more trades in here okay you know you
830
00:49:53,119 --> 00:49:56,000
can play these counter term pullbacks and everything you can look to scale in
831
00:49:56,000 --> 00:49:58,960
um but i just want to concentrate on you know the low hanging fruit here just to
832
00:49:58,960 --> 00:50:02,559
show you uh you know really just being really really patient
833
00:50:02,559 --> 00:50:05,760
here okay um i will do a summary at the end just to go over it but yeah just
834
00:50:05,760 --> 00:50:07,760
kind of drawing out here what's happening right you can see you just
835
00:50:07,760 --> 00:50:10,240
keep drawing the spring range we're in every time we get a break of structure
836
00:50:10,240 --> 00:50:13,760
what's the new arrangement within this range wait for price to pull back okay
837
00:50:13,760 --> 00:50:16,559
it doesn't quite pull back down to the discount but what does it do it sweeps
838
00:50:16,559 --> 00:50:19,520
liquidity that fuels the move to the next high okay mark out the next spring
839
00:50:19,520 --> 00:50:22,960
range build within um you know a couple poi looking at this one here or looking
840
00:50:22,960 --> 00:50:26,160
at the extreme which was a sweep also has inducement in front of it right with
841
00:50:26,160 --> 00:50:29,440
this structural low here price comes into it taps it and then we start to see
842
00:50:29,440 --> 00:50:32,319
that movement away right there's trades in there that you can look or again do
843
00:50:32,319 --> 00:50:35,440
not be afraid to enter on the m15 right there's an amazing risk reward here that
844
00:50:35,440 --> 00:50:39,040
you can take even with counter trend trades you're seeing sustainable flow
845
00:50:39,040 --> 00:50:42,720
you just have to decide you know is that rr worth it just over five hours to four
846
00:50:42,720 --> 00:50:46,400
hour supply potentially ar to the distal potentially you could push it even
847
00:50:46,400 --> 00:50:49,520
further right that's down to you but the trades are there but you were patient
848
00:50:49,520 --> 00:50:52,720
okay you didn't try and jump in down here or even here you've waited for that
849
00:50:52,720 --> 00:50:57,599
sustainable shorter flow to come in you isolate or pick out those extreme pois
850
00:50:57,599 --> 00:51:01,760
high probability right they're sweep zones they have inducement um etc etc
851
00:51:01,760 --> 00:51:05,680
and then you have some tidy positions there to take advantage of
852
00:51:05,680 --> 00:51:08,640
and then eventually we come all the way up into
853
00:51:08,640 --> 00:51:10,880
our um
854
00:51:10,880 --> 00:51:15,680
four-hour supply zone with our refined m15 supply in it okay so you know that
855
00:51:15,680 --> 00:51:18,240
peaks at around let's see uh
856
00:51:18,240 --> 00:51:22,559
you know just shy of 30 are there right and then obviously as we come into that
857
00:51:22,559 --> 00:51:24,800
for our supply zone we can start to anticipate what we can start to
858
00:51:24,800 --> 00:51:28,000
anticipate that potentially the four-hour pullback is over
859
00:51:28,000 --> 00:51:32,000
right that lower high may be forming and we're about to get that next swing run
860
00:51:32,000 --> 00:51:35,280
okay targeting what targeting all of the quality that's built below those lows
861
00:51:35,280 --> 00:51:38,000
okay because all of the demand has been filled right with all of these
862
00:51:38,000 --> 00:51:41,520
mitigations and it's potential that price can then come down but what can we
863
00:51:41,520 --> 00:51:44,559
do we can't well you can't just jump in straight away or you can wait for an m15
864
00:51:44,559 --> 00:51:48,839
change of character to potentially anticipate that okay so let's have a
865
00:51:48,839 --> 00:51:53,119
look uh see how price just about spikes that small high so that means that we
866
00:51:53,119 --> 00:51:57,040
have an internal low here right because this low took out that internal high
867
00:51:57,040 --> 00:51:59,760
there so
868
00:51:59,760 --> 00:52:03,680
that would be our chalk line now we've taken that chalk right so
869
00:52:03,680 --> 00:52:06,000
that's the sign of weakness now this is super aggressive there is a trade in
870
00:52:06,000 --> 00:52:09,359
here i'm not going to go over it but essentially on the m1 now um there was a
871
00:52:09,359 --> 00:52:13,119
nice clear sweep zone up here right and literally i know someone in the
872
00:52:13,119 --> 00:52:16,880
community took this almost any names but an amazing trade
873
00:52:16,880 --> 00:52:20,480
and then you can tap into there but it was around kind of that time of the
874
00:52:20,480 --> 00:52:23,280
market which i wouldn't really advise you enter which is around 10 pm gmt
875
00:52:23,280 --> 00:52:26,960
around the daily closed decay uh and spreads widen um pretty dramatically
876
00:52:26,960 --> 00:52:30,000
there and you will most likely get spiked out but just
877
00:52:30,000 --> 00:52:32,880
showing you we come into extreme supply we're
878
00:52:32,880 --> 00:52:36,240
expecting that hard time from low height to form um we get the first sign of
879
00:52:36,240 --> 00:52:38,800
weakness on the m15 with structure changing when we get that change of
880
00:52:38,800 --> 00:52:42,160
character pull back into the extreme kind of sweep zone of that and then we
881
00:52:42,160 --> 00:52:45,599
start to aggressively sell off um if i just play
882
00:52:45,599 --> 00:52:49,520
that forward okay um but yeah there's your pro trend move and like i
883
00:52:49,520 --> 00:52:52,079
said right my sword of that demand has been absorbed with all of these deep
884
00:52:52,079 --> 00:52:55,119
mitigations pulling back into demand each time it's created right because
885
00:52:55,119 --> 00:52:58,079
remember what happens the mind gets created to make the higher high price
886
00:52:58,079 --> 00:53:02,079
falls back in fills his orders and goes off okay again pulls back goes off
887
00:53:02,079 --> 00:53:04,960
demands all filled yes there will be some demand levels in here that's why we
888
00:53:04,960 --> 00:53:09,040
see some reactions here but overall the supply is overwhelming right that all
889
00:53:09,040 --> 00:53:11,760
that high time frame supply is going to definitely
890
00:53:11,760 --> 00:53:15,599
overpower demand at the point and that's where we go on to kind of try and form
891
00:53:15,599 --> 00:53:20,160
new lows so let's do a very quick recap of kind of what was going on here
892
00:53:20,160 --> 00:53:25,119
wiki chart we were very heavily bearish but we came into this weekly level of
893
00:53:25,119 --> 00:53:28,400
demand where potentially we may even see just the tiniest of reactions from a
894
00:53:28,400 --> 00:53:32,640
weekly standpoint but that can give us very lucrative intraday opportunities
895
00:53:32,640 --> 00:53:36,319
daily chart obviously very very bearish but we found a refined zone within that
896
00:53:36,319 --> 00:53:39,040
daily range right it was a flip zone a sweep zone and it led to the break of
897
00:53:39,040 --> 00:53:42,960
structure it had inducement so really really decent zone okay then we jump
898
00:53:42,960 --> 00:53:45,760
down to the four-hour chart and at this point we're literally just
899
00:53:45,760 --> 00:53:48,720
sitting on our hands really you know we don't really want to even be thinking
900
00:53:48,720 --> 00:53:52,880
about a daily pullback until at minimum we see a bullish change of character on
901
00:53:52,880 --> 00:53:56,400
the four-hour chart which is what we then got we also saw that huge wick
902
00:53:56,400 --> 00:53:59,119
reaction which shows us a lot of demand stepping into the market we then
903
00:53:59,119 --> 00:54:03,280
scrolled back to look left and we found a nice refined extreme sweep and flip
904
00:54:03,280 --> 00:54:06,079
zone right for our zone within that daily zone okay you don't have to do
905
00:54:06,079 --> 00:54:08,559
this but it just gives you a little bit more confidence that we are you know
906
00:54:08,559 --> 00:54:11,280
reacting off something that makes sense and we're not just reacting off thin air
907
00:54:11,280 --> 00:54:14,000
we then got that four hour change of character what is that four hour change
908
00:54:14,000 --> 00:54:16,720
your character most likely gonna be in the lower time frames it's most likely
909
00:54:16,720 --> 00:54:21,280
going to be a bullish break of structure on the m15 and that's what this was here
910
00:54:21,280 --> 00:54:24,160
right that was the first time the m15 then switch bullish we've got a break
911
00:54:24,160 --> 00:54:27,680
enclosure above the swing high to form that higher high now at this point you
912
00:54:27,680 --> 00:54:30,720
can start to look for longs within here right to try and anticipate this move
913
00:54:30,720 --> 00:54:34,079
here um and it's absolutely fine i will do that as well but it's just a hell of
914
00:54:34,079 --> 00:54:38,160
a lot more risky so what can you do you can wait for both a higher high and a
915
00:54:38,160 --> 00:54:41,520
higher load of to form to really give you that confirmed you know bullish
916
00:54:41,520 --> 00:54:44,799
momentum coming to the market but to get a higher low we need a double break of
917
00:54:44,799 --> 00:54:48,000
short shot which is this second break of structure here okay so now you've waited
918
00:54:48,000 --> 00:54:50,880
a couple days you're letting bullish order flow start
919
00:54:50,880 --> 00:54:54,799
to start to kick in right you're seeing um highs start to break you're seeing
920
00:54:54,799 --> 00:54:58,400
low start to get respected right demand is now clearly starting to to take
921
00:54:58,400 --> 00:55:01,680
control right these cell to buy wicks you can see supply zones failing right
922
00:55:01,680 --> 00:55:04,799
supply zones failing here um and then when you mark up the new range rail
923
00:55:04,799 --> 00:55:07,440
within right this is the swing low this is the swing high you draw on your
924
00:55:07,440 --> 00:55:10,960
premium and discount you mark up the poise that are ideally in the discount
925
00:55:10,960 --> 00:55:13,520
right then you try and validate them even more what do we look for are they a
926
00:55:13,520 --> 00:55:17,359
flip yes right we came to supply we reacted that led to the break of
927
00:55:17,359 --> 00:55:21,200
structure as well and supply failing this is the extremity of this of that
928
00:55:21,200 --> 00:55:25,200
leg it's swept liquidity it has inducement um so that's a decent level
929
00:55:25,200 --> 00:55:27,920
you know i also would have been looking at this level as well this is where i'm
930
00:55:27,920 --> 00:55:32,400
i you know use the m1 to confirm the level to me so drop down to to the m1 to
931
00:55:32,400 --> 00:55:35,359
give us our entry model when it came into it and then like i said i target
932
00:55:35,359 --> 00:55:38,720
the next m15 higher high because i'm heavily heavily counter trend and that's
933
00:55:38,720 --> 00:55:41,680
personally at the moment where i take a hell of a lot of my volume off i'm aware
934
00:55:41,680 --> 00:55:44,480
i leave a lot of profit on the table especially in times like this but it
935
00:55:44,480 --> 00:55:47,839
works for me it works my personality it's the most congruent way i like to
936
00:55:47,839 --> 00:55:51,200
trade um but i did leave some this is a trade
937
00:55:51,200 --> 00:55:52,960
i've taken you guys would have seen some of you guys would have seen the
938
00:55:52,960 --> 00:55:56,559
breakdown already right um and i took off the majority of my volume i had a
939
00:55:56,559 --> 00:56:00,000
tiny bit of volume uh running up to here and this was an intraday move okay so 7
940
00:56:00,000 --> 00:56:06,000
8 7 am gmt to 5 pm gmt right pretty much uh after london's close around 4 pm gmt
941
00:56:06,000 --> 00:56:09,280
tail end of the new york session um you can bank if you had to hold your full
942
00:56:09,280 --> 00:56:12,880
volume you know fair play tv do that hats off to you that's 30r right that's
943
00:56:12,880 --> 00:56:17,040
insane trade intraday um but the the real point i want to make here is it's
944
00:56:17,040 --> 00:56:19,920
all about being patient okay
945
00:56:19,920 --> 00:56:22,640
you don't have to jump in all of these little moves here we're trying to catch
946
00:56:22,640 --> 00:56:25,920
you know all of these boots in here you can do it right but
947
00:56:25,920 --> 00:56:28,960
if you just be patient for a few days you wait for you know multiple brakes to
948
00:56:28,960 --> 00:56:32,319
shots to the upside you outlined these super clean pois you saw how clean that
949
00:56:32,319 --> 00:56:36,559
m1 entry was and then you target the next higher time frame supply level and
950
00:56:36,559 --> 00:56:38,880
you know you can actually just wait for that change of character before you even
951
00:56:38,880 --> 00:56:41,760
exit because we could have gone higher so maybe just trail as soon as you see
952
00:56:41,760 --> 00:56:46,000
that in 15 change of character okay you get out for 26r um
953
00:56:46,000 --> 00:56:48,960
that is your month that is your you know some of you that would even be your year
954
00:56:48,960 --> 00:56:51,839
right making 26 hours a year i'm sure many of you i know at the start of my
955
00:56:51,839 --> 00:56:55,280
career i would have been happy with that right um you just made that intraday but
956
00:56:55,280 --> 00:56:57,920
it's all about being patient you don't have to be a madman you know taking
957
00:56:57,920 --> 00:57:02,640
three trades every single session um this is it this this is
958
00:57:02,640 --> 00:57:05,119
training heavily against the higher time frames
959
00:57:05,119 --> 00:57:09,440
almost being patient letting the stars online and then intraday think of that
960
00:57:09,440 --> 00:57:13,280
you can make 25 to 30 r um obviously depending on how you like to manage your
961
00:57:13,280 --> 00:57:15,839
positions and obviously there are a hell of a lot more scalings i want not in
962
00:57:15,839 --> 00:57:19,680
here but i just want to show you this is the easy low hanging fruit that you want
963
00:57:19,680 --> 00:57:22,880
to be patient for so what i would advise is go back on the
964
00:57:22,880 --> 00:57:26,160
charts re-engineer this trade you know build your case studies like
965
00:57:26,160 --> 00:57:29,520
that do loads of annotations take you know each time frame put it into one of
966
00:57:29,520 --> 00:57:32,960
your case studies put it into your trade plan and have setups in there that you
967
00:57:32,960 --> 00:57:36,559
look at before every single training session before you even turn on your
968
00:57:36,559 --> 00:57:39,839
monitor before you even look at the charts before you even fire up m25 c
969
00:57:39,839 --> 00:57:42,720
trader or whatever on your phone however it is you like to trade don't even be
970
00:57:42,720 --> 00:57:45,440
thinking about that you want to be quickly looking at your plan refreshing
971
00:57:45,440 --> 00:57:48,960
your subconscious right what are the key points you look for and then visually
972
00:57:48,960 --> 00:57:53,520
flick through these trades and it will just keep you super calm um it will stop
973
00:57:53,520 --> 00:57:56,720
you getting fomo it will stop you rushing into shitty positions
974
00:57:56,720 --> 00:57:59,359
and also it will teach you patience right just to hold on to this trade
975
00:57:59,359 --> 00:58:02,480
potentially if you want to push this a little bit further okay um
976
00:58:02,480 --> 00:58:05,920
so on and so forth okay so hopefully you guys look surrounded from that
977
00:58:05,920 --> 00:58:08,960
um i know it's a little bit over the top sometimes on kind of how long i spend
978
00:58:08,960 --> 00:58:11,839
really talking through structure but i i know for some of you especially new to
979
00:58:11,839 --> 00:58:15,680
this style it can really help you just to kind of go things through things um
980
00:58:15,680 --> 00:58:19,200
super slowly so with that said i'll leave that there and i will see you in
981
00:58:19,200 --> 00:58:22,440
the next one
982
00:58:24,799 --> 00:58:26,880
you105570
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