All language subtitles for The.Long.Road.to.War.2018.1080p.x265.AAC.MVGroup.org.eng

The First World War
was the largest armed conflict

that the world had ever seen…

the Great War.

Since the summer of 1914
and over the next four years,

more than 40 countries
were fighting each other,

on land…

sea…

and in the air…

…with no mercy…

and to the bitter end.

Crimes against the civilian populations
of Serbia and Belgium.

Gas among the trenches
of the Western Front.

Unrestricted submarine warfare waged
by Germany and Austria-Hungary.

The Allied blockade of Germany,

Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire.

The Ottoman genocide of the Greeks,

the Assyrians and the Armenian people

were just some
among many faces of this war.

By the time it ended in November of 1918,

the Great War left
over 20 million people wounded

and more than 16 million dead.

The Bolshevik revolution in Russia,

the rise of the USA
as the dominant world power,

Nazism and the coming
of Adolf Hitler to power,

were all direct products
of the First World War,

as was the Second World War.

And then the Cold War
in its many forms and shapes.

The Balkan wars of the 1990s.

The everlasting Middle East crisis.

In the summer of 1914,
Europe was at peace.

There hadn't been a major war
for more than 50 years,

the era known as Belle Epoque.

On June the 28th
on Franz Joseph Street in Sarajevo,

the capital of Bosnia and Herzegovina,
then part of Austria-Hungary,

the heir to the Austrian throne
was assassinated

by a young Bosnian student.

For that reason, a month later

Austria-Hungary
was to declare war on Serbia.

And seven days after that,

all of the European Great Powers
would march into war.

But why is it that the nations of Europe
and the world went to war so readily,

and how did the First World War
ever came about?

In the 1870s, 40 years
before the Sarajevo assassination,

Bosnia and Herzegovina were still
a part of the Ottoman Empire.

And this was so
ever since the 15th century

when the Ottoman Turks
had broken into Europe

and conquered most of the Balkans.

But now, after four centuries
of the cruel regime,

the empire's end was in sight.

Throughout the 19th century,
the Balkan peoples

the Serbs, Greeks,
Bulgarians and Romanians

had turned to arms
to liberate their lands.

Now the time came
for Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The slogan
which was very popular was

"Balkans to the Balkan people,"

meaning that Great Powers
should not intervene

and let the Balkans people agree
among themselves

about their own future.

The plurality of the population
of Bosnia actually is Serb,

so I think it's natural for Serbia
wanting to reunite those Serbs

with the motherland,

just as it was natural
in 19th century terms

that they would want the Serbs
of southern Hungary and Slavonia

to be reunited with the rest of Serbia.

But the future of Bosnia and Herzegovina

was also a matter of principal interest
to a great power.

Since the mid-19th century,
the foundations of the Austrian Empire

were shaken by the revolutions
and the civil war with the Hungarians.

By 1860s, the Austrian Empire lost
its Italian provinces

in wars with Piedmont.

And in war with Prussia,
Austria lost its dominant position

in the German Confederation.

As both Italy and Germany
were now unified at Austria's expense,

the Emperor Franz Joseph
was determined to prevent

the further crumbling of the Empire

and reach the so-called Compromise
with the Hungarians.

Although the name was now Austria-Hungary,

the largest ethnic group
within the empire were actually Slavs,

who outnumbered both the Austrian Germans
and the Hungarians together.

Vienna's great fear is
that Serbia might set her foreign policy

towards the South Slavs of the Monarchy,

and that Belgrade might become
the Piedmont of the South Slavs.

Any extension of Serbia

which would embrace Bosnia Herzegovina

as well as some other districts

could not be reconciled
with the standpoint of Austria-Hungary,

a portion of whose subjects
belong to the same race

and might therefore become
enthused with similar aspirations.

Vienna could have accepted
the nation-states,

but only those which remained
of limited importance,

those over which it could exert control.

If Serbia were to annex
Bosnia and Herzegovina,

she would thus obviously become
a mid-rank state,

and that was not acceptable.

In the summer of 1875,

gunfire was heard again
in the mountains of Herzegovina.

It remained totally unknown
that the Bosnian Serbs

during these insurrections

proclaimed, on several occasions,
unification with Serbia.

Bosnia with Serbia, and Herzegovina
with another Serbian state,

which was the principality of Montenegro.

In July of 1876,
both Serbia and Montenegro

declared war on the Ottoman Empire.

But the destiny of Bosnia and Herzegovina
had already been made.

Austria-Hungary
cannot permit that Serbia occupy and keep

the enclave between Dalmatia,
Croatia and Slavonia,

as this would mean a danger
to the provinces of the monarchy,

especially to its Dalmatian littoral

which, extending like a thin ribbon,

would evidently have to be annexed
to the new Serbia.

It was agreed that Serbia should obtain
an extension of territory

in the Drina region in Bosnia

at the same time as
in that of Novi Pazar in old Serbia.

The rest of Bosnia and Herzegovina

were to be annexed by Austria-Hungary.

In order to secure
Russian support for this,

Austria was willing to do anything.

If Russia was to wage war on the Ottomans,

Austria-Hungary would observe
an attitude of benevolent neutrality,

but would also provide
military logistics, field ambulances,

the supply of armaments,
as well as the diplomatic shield

against other powers,

so Russia could pursue

the Straits of the Black Sea.

In April 1877, Russia declared war
on the Ottoman Empire.

But in the peace conference
in Berlin in the summer of 1878,

the Great Powers decided
that the straits of the Black Sea

would remain closed
to the Russian war fleet.

At the same time,
they allowed Austria-Hungary

to occupy Bosnia and Herzegovina,

but also the Sandjak of Novi Pazar

so that Austria could keep Serbia
and Montenegro apart.

While Bosnia and Herzegovina
were to be occupied

and administered by Vienna,

formally they would still remain
a part of the Ottoman Empire.

The Austro-Hungarian generals
planned to complete the occupation

by August the 18th,
Franz Joseph's birthday,

but they encountered fierce resistance,

first from the Bosnian Muslims,
and then from the Orthodox Serbs.

It took Austria-Hungary
more than 150,000 troops…

…heavy artillery…

…and more than three months
of war and reprisals

against the local population
to occupy Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The real point is
that it gives prestige to Franz Joseph,

who likes to annex
a little bit of territory

because he's lost so much in the past.

But Bosnia and Herzegovina
is obviously a Slav territory,

and there's no particular reason

why the local population
would want to be occupied

by the Austrian army, and they don't.

And they resist until resistance
is put down after two or three years.

Germany had been united
under the leadership of Prussia

and her "iron chancellor"
Otto von Bismarck

over the course of three wars.

In the war against Denmark in 1864,

after the victory over Austria in 1866,

and then over France in 1870 and 1871.

At the helm of the victorious armies
were the Prussian king,

the future German Kaiser Wilhelm,

and the Chief of General Staff,
Helmuth von Moltke.

What Bismarck did
in unifying Germany

was to place Prussia
at the heart of Germany.

And the heart of Prussia
was the Prussian army,

and at the heart of the Prussian army
was the Hohenzollern monarchy,

and that monarchy had a long tradition
of fighting wars without giving notice.

But the new German Reich
was quickly turning

into the most progressive country
in Europe.

By the late 19th century,
Germany had overtaken

the United Kingdom, France and Russia
in almost all spheres.

In overall industrial production,

in the achievements in humanities
and natural sciences,

as well as in social care
for the German workers.

The standard of living was rising,

and the population would grow
from 41 million in 1871

to 68 million in 1913.

But Germany's further growth
in the age of colonialism

was constrained by the other Great Powers.

In the "Scramble for Africa,"

Germany managed to acquire
just three colonies,

while the old colonial masters
kept most of the world for themselves.

Although Germany is now very strong,

she was a late comer
on the international stage.

Certainly a late comer
in terms of colonial possessions,

and one of the foreign policy aims

was to ensure that Germany has

her rightful "place in the sun"
internationally

and her rightful state
within the European Concert

or the balance of power.

"A place in the sun" implied growth

of the colonial empire overseas,

but also strengthening
the position within Europe,

based on economic superiority
over the neighboring countries,

but also upon military superiority.

In 1888, Wilhelm's grandson,
Wilhelm II, ascended the throne.

He was to rule the German Empire
for the next 30 years

and be the last German Emperor.

Wilhelm II was a very damaged person.

The nerves were ripped out in his neck
at birth, he was a breech baby.

So he was a military monarch
with a crippled left arm.

It was very difficult,
and he always was trying

to overcompensate for that disability

by showing how bellicose he was,
what a militarist he really was.

Wilhelm II as Kaiser thought,

"Well, the army has been built up
by my grandfather,"

whom he called Wilhelm the Great,

"and my duty will be
to put this army to effect

so that I will make Germany
into the hegemonial power in Europe."

That was his great dream.

The great model always
was the quick victory,

especially against France in 1870-71.

Now Germany was too small
for the two leaders,

and as soon as Wilhelm II
was settled as the new kaiser,

Bismarck was dismissed.

Several days before his dismissal,

Bismarck promised
the Russian ambassador Count Shuvalov

that the Reinsurance Treaty,
which prevented

a possibility of a conflict
between Germany and Russia,

was to be prolonged.

Caprivi stated that he was not a juggler,

that he can't handle
three balls at a time.

So one ball had to be dropped,
and that was Russia.

Russia found herself isolated.

And as a result,

Russia turned towards making
an alliance with France.

A war against France in the west

for Germany would now also mean
a war against Russia in the east.

A two-front war nightmare
for any military strategist.

The consequence was
that in case of a two-front war,

the German Empire would have found itself
tied up from both sides

and finally wouldn't have any chance
for a quick victory over either enemy.

It was for these reasons

that in 1875 and also in 1887

Moltke called for preventive war
before the German government,

against either France or Russia

in order to resolve the two fronts problem

before a war
against both sides would come.

But Bismarck had been strongly against it.

And without the Chancellor's ascent,

not even the Kaiser
could take Germany to war.

But in 1890, Bismarck was no more,

and Wilhelm II was to ensure
that he becomes the sole ruler of Germany.

He, of course, over the years
appointed all the ministers.

The chancellor, all the generals,
they were his appointees,

and they behaved accordingly.

They did not behave
like republican civilian statesmen.

They behaved like courtiers
or like militarists.

The chancellor Bernhard von Bulow
would write on his cuff

what the Kaiser had ordered,
not because he thought he'd forget it,

but to demonstrate to the Kaiser

that he would always remember
exactly what the Kaiser had said.

True to the tradition of German policy,

we will make every effort to protect
our rights and interests

in East Asia and West India

without unnecessary harshness,
but without weakness either.

We do not want to put
anyone in our shadow,

but we also demand our place in the sun.

Setting on what they called
the "civilizing mission"

in Bosnia and Herzegovina,

the Austrians pledged to introduce
the agrarian reform and abolish serfdom,

to raise the standards of living,

to organize schools,
to improve the taxation system,

to reform the administration of justice,

and to treat the three religious groups
with equality.

The priority was to build
modern roads and railways.

Most of the constructions undertaken

by the Austro-Hungarian administration

was to serve for exploiting

the mining wealth
of Bosnia and Herzegovina

and much less to anything else.

There were five times more police stations
in Bosnia built than schools.

Social progress was reserved
for very thin layer of population.

In 1882, the Austria-Hungary's
new Finance Minister,

and thus the administrator
of Bosnia and Herzegovina,

became Benjamin von Kallay,

a historian and a former diplomat
to Belgrade.

He was to leave his mark on an era

by remaining in his post
for the next 21 years.

This man who had written the history
of the Serbs

now had a task of keeping
Bosnia and Serbia apart.

The Serbs had had
hundreds of religious schools

which were keeping their Serbian
and Christian Orthodox tradition.

Then Benny von Kallay came and told them,

"You are not Serbs anymore,
you are now Bosnians. "

He imposed the Bosnian language,

and he even banished his book
History of the Serbian People,

which was published
previous to the occupation of Bosnia,

in which he claimed
that all the population of Bosnia,

and Bosnian Muslims in particular,
are of Serbian origin.

And the Bosnian Serbs wanted the same

human rights, civil rights,

and to be free owners
of the land they tilled.

But the occupational rule
in Bosnia and Herzegovina

never addressed any of the problems
of the largest ethnic group.

Kallay had even prevented
the agrarian reform,

so at the beginning of the 20th century,
just as in the Middle Ages,

the Christian peasants were still serfs,

paying a third of their harvest
to the Ottoman beys

who still owned the land.

Meanwhile,
the Austro-Hungarian administration

kept raising the state taxes even higher

than those imposed by the Ottomans.

By 1910, 32 years
into the Austro-Hungarian occupation,

nearly 90% of the entire population
of Bosnia and Herzegovina

was still illiterate.

This was unique in Europe.

THE ASSASSINATION
OF THE SERBIAN ROYAL COUPLE

COUP D'ÉTAT IN SERBIA

THE SERBIAN ROYAL COUPLE ASSASSINATED

After the assassination of the autocrat
King Alexander Obrenović

and his consort in the spring of 1903,

a group of military insurgents brought

Peter Karadjordjević
to the Serbian throne.

King Peter reintroduced
democracy to Serbia,

and it was through the parliament
that the national unification ideas

were to come to the forefront
of the Serbian foreign policy again.

At the same time,
in the Austro-Hungarian provinces

of Croatia-Slavonia and Dalmatia,
a new political force was emerging.

In 1905, the Croatian and Serbian parties

joined in The Croat-Serb Coalition.

To Vienna, it appears that a threat

is forming on its borders.

All the while Serbia was an ally

subordinate to Austria-Hungary,

there had been no such fear.

But now the entire situation
seems to have changed.

And as a consequence, in Vienna,

in both political and military circles,

a particular view
towards Serbia was formed.

A sort of obsession.

And it's not just Serbia.

Serbia is a headache for people in Vienna.

For people in Budapest,
for the Hungarians,

they are facing an even bigger headache,
to some extent,

with the Romanians.

And so you have
two irredentist smaller states

that are getting stronger every day
on your southern borders,

and this is what gives
the Austrians this impression

that they are really beleaguered

and they are facing enemies
all the way around.

And Conrad,
who was a little bit paranoid about Italy,

he would say, "You know,
this is another secret enemy.

Italy is only waiting
for its chance to attack us.

So what we need to do is eliminate
all these threats

before they strike first,"

which is why Conrad's always arguing
for preventive wars.

The Kaiser
was also seeking ways

to get Germany out of encirclement.

In order to achieve this,
it seemed only natural

to use his family ties,

first with his uncle,
the British King Edward VII,

and then young Nikki,

the Russian Tsar Nicholas II,
also a relative.

The Russian regiments must march with us.

I believe that the prospect of raping
and pillaging in beautiful France

will lure the Russians to join us.

But Nicholas had other priorities.

- In 1904, Japan attacked

Russia in Manchuria.

And now, as the entire Russian army
had been sent away to the far east,

in Saint Petersburg
the revolution broke out.

The revolution
was to be extinguished in blood.

In 1905, the Russian army and the navy
suffered a devastating defeat

in the war with Japan.

Russia's military might
was all but destroyed,

and for Russia, it would take
a long time to recover.

Russia was not able to fight in Europe.

In other words, France was now
at Germany's mercy.

And it's in this situation

that the Chief
of the German General Staff,

Count Schlieffen, devises
his Angriffsplan gegen Frankreich,

a swift, lightning war against France.

The problem was
that the German-French border

on the French side was well fortified,
all along the mountain chain of Vosges.

A quick breakthrough
was not possible there.

That is why Schlieffen developed a plan
to march through the neutral Belgium

but also through neutral Holland

in order to attack France
from the northeast.

And expecting that the French army
would be set to fight,

they could now surround it

with a huge outflanking move
and destroy it.

That was the idea
which Schlieffen formulated

in 1905 in his memorandum,

which we now know as The Schlieffen Plan.

Still, a war could not begin
without a major international crisis.

Since 1830, France had put
most of North Africa, Algiers and Tunisia

under her colonial rule.

Now she reached
for the last remaining territory,

but so did Germany.

Morocco was a European problem.

There had been a conference
at the end of 19th century

which decided that
not a single European country

should acquire
a unilateral position in Morocco.

And France, transforming Morocco
in a protectorate,

broke that agreement, actually.

The Germans were not happy.

They tried to force the French
to stop that.

In March 1905,

the Kaiser landed
in the Moroccan port of Tangiers,

offering the Sultan
his support against France.

Paris saw this as a direct threat,

and soon Europe was on the brink of war.

What finally persuades
the Kaiser not to attack

is his realization that Britain
would not allow France to be defeated.

Both with her navy,
which was totally superior,

but also with a landing of 100,000 men
somewhere on the Continent.

So for the first time,
you had Britain clearly stating,

"We cannot tolerate the crushing
of France,

because we British
will just be left facing a continent

that's united under your leadership,
and that's something we cannot tolerate."

The United Kingdom,
the world's largest colonial power,

had the largest naval force
the world had ever seen.

In 1897,
under the Admiral Alfred von Tirpitz,

Germany had started building her own fleet

with the aim of matching
that of the British.

This then prompted the British admirals
to insist on a preventive attack

on the German navy
before it became too strong an opponent.

But instead of a preventive attack,

Great Britain took another giant step
in securing its naval supremacy.

In 1905, Britain launches

the first all big gun battleship
the Dreadnought,

with 12-inch guns.

Eventually it'll aspire
to have 15-inch guns,

and ultimately,
they're thinking about 18-inch guns.

And that outclasses
every existing battleship in the world,

but then, of course, creates pressure
on other navies to conform,

and particularly, of course, Germany.

This presented the Germans
with a huge dilemma,

because the battleships
that they'd been building so far

were still small enough
to go through the Kiel Canal,

from the Baltic Sea to the Atlantic
or North Sea, and back again.

The new dreadnoughts were too large
to go through that canal,

which means that they had to go
all the way around the top of Denmark.

And so they had to decide not only

whether we Germans will also now build
dreadnoughts to match the British,

and if we do, secondly,
we will have to widen the Kiel Canal.

The Germans accepted the challenge.

The undertaking to widen and deepen

the 98 kilometer Kiel Canal began in 1907,

as Germany started building
her own dreadnought-class fleet.

The naval arms race in Europe began.

There are really two arms races
going on within Europe

before the First World War.

SKETCH OF THE 75 MILLIMETER FIELD GUN

In 1897, the French develop
a 75 millimeter field gun

which can fire about 20 rounds a minute.

That is a serious increase
in the rate of fire of guns,

and what that then does is create pressure

for every other European army
to acquire quick-firing artillery.

One of the first armies
to introduce the cannon

was the Serbian army in 1905.

Drawn by a superior quality
over the cannons made

by Austrian Skoda and the German Krupp,

but also by the offerings
of a substantial French loan,

the Serbian government,
for the first time,

decided not to buy weapons
from Austria or Germany.

In Vienna, they were shocked
when Serbia decided

to sign treaties with other states
without consulting Viennese diplomacy.

They thought, "If Serbia wants
to be independent,"

and 97% of Serbian export
was dependent on Austria-Hungary,

"we will impose sanctions

and Serbia will have to come back
under our wing."

In January of 1906,

Austria-Hungary enforced the trade embargo

on the Serbian livestock exports,

an economic clash known as The Pig War.

But by 1911, Serbia would emerge
from this war as a winner,

eventually profiting more
by finding new markets

in France, Russia,
Switzerland and Germany.

It was political emancipation,

economic emancipation,
military emancipation.

This is how Serbia became an attractive…

a kind of Balkan Piedmont,

especially for the Serbs,
but also for other South Slavs.

The Serbs
of the Orthodox and the Muslim faith

hereby pledge to work and incite people

towards getting the self-government
for Bosnia and Herzegovina,

under the supreme rule of the Sultan.

In accordance with its free will,

the people shall decide
on the country's social system

and elect governors,
alternately a Muslim and an Orthodox Serb.

In the elections of 1908 in the provinces

of Croatia-Slavonia and Dalmatia,

the Croat-Serb Coalition
took a huge victory

by winning 56 out of 81 seats
in the parliament.

When the Croat-Serbian coalition

took power in Croatia,

in Vienna they were very, very concerned.

They were banning Serbian newspapers

to be imported into Bosnia.

They were putting people in prison.

They were arresting Serbian leaders
and accused them for high treason.

And this is why Austria decided
to make another blow

to proclaim annexation
of Bosnia-Herzegovina to Austria-Hungary.

On the last day of 1905,

Kaiser Wilhelm II relieved
Alfred von Schlieffen of his duty,

and to the post
of the Chief of German General Staff

he brought his personal adjutant.

Kaiser called him Julius,

but his real name
was Helmut von Moltke, the younger.

It was the Kaiser's choice,

based more on a personal liking,

and importantly, on the name,

because Helmut von Moltke
had his more famous uncle.

Wilhelm II thought that somehow
some of this would perhaps rub off,

and in fact,
the younger Moltke asked the Kaiser,

"Are you thinking that you might win
in the same lottery twice?"

You can do that little bit of peace work,

but in times of war,

I will be my own
Chief of the General Staff.

As soon as Moltke was appointed,

the state of affairs in Europe
began to change.

Russia slowly but steadily
started recovering from the revolution

and the war with Japan,

and it seemed
that her army would fully recover

within five to six years.

War on two fronts
was again becoming a possibility,

and like his uncle before him,

Moltke the younger would get determined
to prevent that from happening.

Now or never.

Jetzt oder nie, the sooner the better.

At every opportunity he advocates war.

At no point does he say,

"Actually, let's just maybe
hold back a bit.

Perhaps we're not strong enough."

But at the same time, he is surrounded
by people who say very similar things.

With Russia now back in the picture,

the German deployment plan,

the so-called Schlieffen Plan,
needed an update.

The basic German
strategic dilemma is a simple one.

They're in the middle.

If you're going to win quickly,
you have to attack France first.

You can't defeat Russia quickly.

So the basic idea is you destroy
the French army

before Russia has time
to mobilize and deploy its troops.

While Germany and Austria were covered

by the dense railway network,
Russia was not.

Therefore the deployment
of the Central Powers’ armies

was supposed to be much faster
than that of the Russians.

So while Germans would go
and attack France,

their rear, the Russian front

would have to be secured
by the Austro-Hungarian army.

Then, after a lightning victory
over France in six to eight weeks,

most of the German troops
would be transferred to the east

and face the Russians.

Given the size of Russia,

given the weakness of the railway network,

given the ineffectiveness
of Russian administration,

the Germans think that they can do this.

We, France Joseph, Emperor of Austria

and Apostolic King of Hungary

to the inhabitants
of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

When a generation ago our troops
crossed the borders of your lands,

you were assured that they came
not as foes, but as friends,

to remedy the evils from which
your fatherland had suffered so grievously

for many years,
and guide the country to a happier future.

Order and security have replaced
violence and oppression.

Trade and traffic are
constantly extending.

The elevating influence of education

has been brought to bear in your country,

and under the shield
of an orderly administration,

every man may enjoy
the fruits of his labors.

In order to raise Bosnia and Herzegovina…

With these words,
the Emperor Franz Joseph,

after 30 years of occupation,

proclaimed the annexation
of Bosnia and Herzegovina

into the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

Of course,
it was a violation of international law,

the Berlin Treaty,

and naturally Serbia
was fiercely against it.

They considered Bosnia to be
kind of Alsace-Lorraine of Serbia,

key provinces for future of the Serbian
and Yugoslavian unification.

In Belgrade,
the news of the annexation

of Bosnia and Herzegovina
was met with outrage.

The largest demonstrations
the city had ever seen were organized.

To try to defuse the tension,
Serbian Foreign Minister

appealed to Vienna and eventually Berlin

for compensations in territory,

namely the Sanjak of Novi Pazar

from where the Austro-Hungarian army
now withdrew.

Serbia hoped to expand there

and finally get a shared border
with Montenegro.

But this was not what Austria
had in mind for Serbia at the time.

A month before the annexation
on September the 5th, 1908,

the Austro-Hungarian
Foreign Minister Aehrenthal

met with his German counterpart
Minister Schoen in Berchtesgaden

and told him in confidence
that his plan beyond the annexation was

"the complete destruction
of the Serbian revolutionary nest"

and "partition of Serbia
between Austria-Hungary and Bulgaria."

A MESSAGE TO AUSTRIA
SERBIA IS TAKING UP ARMS

Now it was also the Serbian press
that called for war.

As the army itself was unfit to fight,

people close to the government
and army circles

began organizing thousands of volunteers

in what was known as the National Defense,

armed Chetnik squads willing
to go to Bosnia and fight Austria-Hungary.

We must deliver
a crushing blow to Serbia,

regardless of the position
of other powers.

An Austrian invasion of Serbia

might lead Russia to intervene actively.

With this, the casus foederis
would arise for Germany.

But the Russians were secretly supportive

of the Austro-Hungarian annexation plan.

In September of 1908 in Buchlovice,

Russian Foreign Minister Iswolsky
gave Aehrenthal

Russia's consent
to the planned annexation.

Iswolsky's policy
was based on the following.

"There are antagonisms with Japan,
say, in Manchuria, Korea…

but we'll resolve that,
we'll make concessions.

There are antagonisms with England,
in Afghanistan, Persia,

but we'll come to an understanding,
we'll make concessions.

There are antagonisms
with Austria-Hungary.

We'll come to an understanding
with Austria-Hungary.

For what reason? For the result
that with all of the concessions made

there should be a conference

at which the issue
of the Straits is to be reviewed.

And while Austria-Hungary
got the annexation,

it failed to provide support for Russia
one more time again.

And the straits of the Black Sea

were to remain closed
for the Russian Navy.

Now the Russian press called for war.

And while Serbia
was facing the Austrian ultimatum,

the German one was delivered
to Saint Petersburg.

As Count Montecuccoli,

the famous Austrian general, used to say,

"There are only
three necessary prerequisites for war,

and that's money, money,
and once again, money."

And that was something
that during 1908 and 1909

the Russian budget was lacking entirely.

So, the Bosnian crisis
caught the Russian army

in the position from which not only
it could not have effectively attacked,

but from which it was unable
to effectively defend itself.

Decision to collapse under Austrian threat
and German ultimatum

totally humiliates the Russian elite

and makes everybody,
from Nicholas II down,

absolutely determined that Russia
will not be humiliated again in that way.

What a good opportunity we missed

of bringing the great European question
to a decision.

…and will probably
not come back so soon

and under such favorable circumstances.

In 1911, Moroccan tribes
revolted against the sultan.

This now served as a strong pretext
for France to send

her 20,000 troops
and take full control of Morocco.

In return, the Germans sent

a small gunboat, the SMS Panther,

to the Moroccan port of Agadir.

But yet again,
it was the British naval threat

that deterred the Germans
from taking any action.

The German navy was still far from ready
to fight the British.

The works on the Kiel Canal
and the major U-boat base

in the North Sea were well underway,

but still several years
away from their completion.

The new naval law
brought in the same year, 1911,

now allowed Germany to speed up
her battleship production by 50%.

Instead of building
two major ships a year,

she was to build three, starting in 1917.

With a Dreier tempo,
Germany planned to reach

the British naval supremacy
in a matter of years.

But the other purpose of the navy
was to force Britain to her knees,

simply because Britain,
with her larger commitments

all over the globe
and her smaller manpower,

would have to build three ships
for every two of the Germans built.

So if the Tirpitz navy
was 60 ships strong,

the British would have to build 90 ships,

and economically
they just could not do that.

And so Tirpitz says,
"There will come a point

when the British will break,

where they will come to us and say,
'We can't go on.

Our hospitals are suffering,
our schools are suffering,

our whole economy is breaking.

What can we do? What can we give you

in return for your slowing down
the naval arms race?'"

And Tirpitz knew exactly what he wanted.

He wanted Britain to sign a treaty
with Germany

promising to stay neutral
in the event of a war on the Continent,

regardless of how that war started.

In other words,
to give Germany carte blanche

to attack France or Russia
at any time they chose.

The decisive contest
will start in September 1914.

That date suits the Germans
if ever they are going to fight.

Both their army and fleet then mobilized,

the Kiel Canal finished,

and their new naval buildings complete.

In the spring of 1912,

Britain and France made an agreement

to bring all of their warships
back to Europe

and share defense responsibilities.

The French fleet was to patrol
the Mediterranean,

and the British Royal Navy
was to increase its presence

in the North Sea.

In July of 1912 in Paris,

Generals Joffre and Zhilinsky
signed a military convention.

In the event of a German attack on France,

Russia was to attack Germany
within fifteen days

and push through Prussia towards Berlin.

And inside Germany, politics were getting
more and more complicated.

In 1912 elections,
the Social Democratic Party won

35% of the seats in the Reichstag,

thus becoming
the strongest political party in Germany.

Germany is becoming
more and more democratic, internally,

and has a larger socialist movement

which is republican,
Marxist and pacifistic.

There is a real danger
that the Social Democratic Party,

the Catholic Center Party,
the Liberal Party will simply say,

"This form of government that we have
is not adequate for a modern society."

And the more power those parties acquire,

the less the militarist tradition
will be able to be put into effect.

So there's a time factor involved here,

they see that very clearly,
the German General Staff.

Russia has huge resources,

both in terms of raw materials
and in terms of population.

So if the economy goes on growing
at this rate,

Russia is going to be a superpower

in a way that really
in the world of that time,

only the United States could match.

Possibly the British Empire,
if the British Empire holds together,

but certainly not a purely continental
European country.

And the fact that the future
seems to belong to Russia

deeply scares both German policymakers

and broader sections of German society,

so from the German perspective,

you have this combination
of fear and temptation.

The sense that if you fight now
you'll probably win,

whereas if you leave it for ten years,
you'll almost certainly lose.

There was also growing concern
that by 1917,

Russia would have fully recovered
from the Japanese defeat

and the 1905 revolution.

The Russians were expected to complete
their Great Military Program

and be firmly on their feet again,

this time with two million soldiers.

Germany and Austria, they say,

"We're losing ground in Europe.

The others are getting
more and more powerful

and we can't catch up."

And it's not so much armaments

but railway building
by the French in Russia.

That is the big threat.

In 1912 and 1913,
Russia received a major French loan.

The condition was that they build
strategic railways in western Russia.

Railways leading to the German border.

And within three or four years,

Russian mobilization would be
just as quick as the Austrians,

maybe even not quite as the Germans.

So you can no longer have
the Schlieffen Plan after 1917.

You can still fight
the war on two fronts now.

In a few years' time
you'll no longer be able to do that,

and that is really the basic argument
for a preventive war.

So, in global terms,

World War I is a sort of preventive war

against the Russian
railway building program.

It's obvious that if you are
the Chief of the German General Staff

you're not going to wait
until your enemies are ready.

It's quite natural that you plan to do
the attacking yourself

to surprise the others.

The trouble with that is that it looks
like a war of aggression,

which indeed it would have been,

which your own people would not support.

Your allies would not even support it

if it looks like you are taking
an initiative in starting this war.

So the whole war had to be disguised.

It was crucial for Berlin
to appear to be attacked.

There was a lot of talk about
how we need to appear to be attacked

so that all the population
will be behind us

and that perhaps Britain
will stay out of the war.

I prepare the German mind for this
by newspaper articles

written by the General Staff
to represent Russia

as barbaric, killing its own people,

shooting its own people
in Petrograd and so on.

But secondly, the best way is
to push Austria in the Balkans

into a war against Serbia.

Perhaps I don't have to push
because they want to do it anyway,

but we will be very supportive.

The experience
of the Moroccan crisis had shown

that they couldn't really rely
on the Austrian ally in a crisis

that didn't directly affect
their own interests,

so a Balkan crisis
was considered in Berlin

to be really pretty crucial and important

if you wanted, perhaps, to provoke a war.

If then, which they thought
was very likely, 90% likely,

Russia supports Serbia
and declares war on Austria,

then we will look as if we're only coming
to the aid of our ally.

We will not seem like the aggressors,

even though our attack is
actually against France,

before we can sweep
our army against Russia.

And the greatest prize of all
in this plan of Bethmann Hollweg's

was to keep Britain neutral

in what would look like a war
in the Balkans long way away.

The Austro-Hungarian annexation of 1908

incited the creation of many groups
and secret societies of young Bosnians.

One was the progressive
Serbo-Croat youth of Sarajevo,

and one of its members Gavrilo Princip.

And in Serbia there was a secret society
of Serbian army officers

called Unification or Death,
better known as The Black Hand.

One of its leaders was Lieutenant Colonel
Dragutin Dimitrijević, "Apis,"

the man who organized
the 1903 coup d'état.

Now he also aimed to bring down

the Prime Minister Nikola Pašić
and his government.

The Black Hand and the revolutionary
and nationalist groups in Bosnia

shared a common goal

to free Bosnia and Herzegovina
of Austro-Hungarian rule.

The main target of Serbian policy

was to finish
with the Ottoman rule in Old Serbia,

which is Vilayet of Kosovo
and Vilayet of Manastir,

which is Slavic Macedonia.

So Bosnia was apart
from any plans of Serbia

to foment revolt or any kind
of internal turmoil.

The main focus was the south.

In order to fully liberate their lands

from centuries of Ottoman rule,

Serbia, Bulgaria, Greece and Montenegro

commenced military operations
against the Ottoman Empire

on October the 8th, 1912.

One of the most important elements

in Serbian strategy
during the First Balkan War

was to obtain an access
to the Adriatic Sea

and to have a direct territorial link
for its exports into the third countries,

because the tariff war
by Austria-Hungary has shown

that Austria is doing everything
to block Serbia's export

and to bring her back
into their political influence.

For Vienna, it was essential

to restrict the expansion of Serbia.

It is not acceptable to allow
Serbia to reach the Adriatic.

The means to prevent that
was to form the Albanian state.

SERBIAN ADVANCE TOWARDS THE ADRIATIC

The tension
between Vienna and Belgrade

was becoming critical.

THE BALKAN WAR
AUSTRO-HUNGARIAN CONFLICT WITH SERBIA

In Berlin, all saw this
as a welcome opportunity.

All but one.

In November 1912,
even the Chancellor Bethmann Hollweg

and Kiderlen-Waechter,
the Foreign Secretary,

as well as the generals,
are urging Wilhelm II

that the thing to do is to encourage
Austria to attack Serbia

before Serbia can reach the Adriatic.

And Wilhelm is reluctant.
He has a plan B in mind.

Plan B is that instead of Austria
attacking Serbia,

it should bribe Serbia.

Give them lots of money, he says,

and then when the war
against Russia comes,

the Serb army will be integrated
with the Austro-Hungarian army,

and we can defeat Russia all the better.

It is often said that Germany

has no need to fight for Austria's
Albanian or Adriatic interests,

or even for the harbor at Durazzo,

but that is not what is at stake.

If Austria has to fight
for her position as a great power,

regardless of the cause,

then we must stand at her side

so as not to have to fight alone
at a later stage

with a weakened Austria beside us.

Austria-Hungary
could count unconditionally

on the support of the German Reich.

Germany's sword is already loose
in its scabbard.

On November the 21st, 1912,
the Kaiser ordered

his new ambassador to London,
Prince Lichnowsky,

to ascertain what
the British position would be

in the event of a Continental war.

The very next day, November the 22nd,

Conrad's replacement,
General Blasius Schemua,

and the Archduke Franz Ferdinand
came in secret to Berlin

to meet the Kaiser and Moltke.

Moltke entirely understood our situation

vis-à-vis Russia and Serbia.

He promised not merely to stand guard

but to launch a forceful offensive action
in parallel with ours.

Kaiser Wilhelm, especially gracious,

willing to support us in everything.

Full security in this respect, absolutely
against the conference of the Powers.

In his speech on December the 2nd, 1912,

the Chancellor Bethmann Hollweg pledged
full German support for Austria-Hungary

in front of the Reichstag
and the whole world.

So that is if you like, a blank check,
given both secretly and in public

by the Kaiser, but also Moltke
and Bethmann Hollweg.

All make it clear
to the Austrian leadership

that Germany would be in support
if they attack Serbia.

They brought such an enormous army

that in Belgrade
they thought that the war is imminent,

that the war will erupt within weeks,

at the moment when the most
of the Serbian troops were in the south

guarding the new territories.

On December the 8th,

the Kaiser read
Lichnowsky's telegram from London.

In a general
European conflict that might arise

from an Austrian invasion of Serbia,
it is hardly likely

that Great Britain would be able
to remain a passive observer.

England could, therefore,
under no circumstances

tolerate the crushing of France.

England cannot be and is not willing
to be confronted afterwards

by a united continent
under the leadership of one single power.

The Kaiser was furious.

He called up a meeting.

It would become known as the War Council.

It took place on a Sunday morning,

December the 8th, 1912,
in the Berlin Palace.

Austria must deal
energetically with the Serbs,

otherwise she will lose control
of the Slavs

in the Austro-Hungarian monarchy.

If Russia supports the Serbs,
which she evidently does,

then war would be unavoidable for us too.

I believe a war is unavoidable,

and the sooner the better.

Moltke says the sooner the better.

We are ready, any delay is going
to put us at a disadvantage.

But it's Tirpitz who swings the meeting

by saying the Navy
would prefer to see the great fight,

he says "the great fight,"
to be postponed for a year and a half

until the Kiel Canal is ready

in the summer of 1914.

The very next day,
December the 9th,

work began on the new Army Bill.

The army budget
was to increase by a staggering 35%

and reach 2.4 billion
Deutschemarks in 1913.

The army's troop strength
would be increased by 140,000 men

by 1914.

The creation
of a strong Serbian Empire

must be prevented.

It is vital not to get encircled
by the ring of Slavs.

The solution can be deferred,

but the question will come up again
in one or two years.

It will be necessary
to create a Balkan state

which does not look towards Petersburg,
but Vienna,

and Turkey will have
to be strengthened again.

But back in December of 1912,

Austria-Hungary was still gathering

a massive military force
just outside Belgrade.

They now had to be
pulled back again, had to be told,

no, well, actually, we've changed
our minds because of this.

So the Kaiser writes to Franz Ferdinand,

Moltke writes to Conrad von Hötzendorf,

Bethmann Hollweg writes
to Berchtold, and says,

"No, actually not yet. Wait!"

And then the Austrians say,
"All right.

Let's say the Balkan
for the Balkan peoples."

Because if you follow
ethnic lines of conduct,

then Serbia is going to win fairly little.

Because Macedonians are regarded
as Bulgarians,

the Kosovo has an Albanian majority,
they believed,

so Serbia will gain almost nothing.

So they are waiting
for the second round of arguing.

They are waiting
for the Balkan entente to fall apart

and for the victors
in the first Balkan War

to start fighting each other.

On June the 29th, 1913,

with the Bulgarian attack
on the Serbian and Greek troops,

the Second Balkan War began.

The Austrians tell the Bulgarians,

"We'll support you,
but only if you buy off the Romanians.

If you bribe the Romanians with territory,

then we'll actually join you
in jointly defeating Serbia."

The Bulgarians refuse to hand over
territory to the Romanians.

And so the Austrians say, "All right.
If that is so, then our offer lapses."

And the Bulgarian tsar is furious.

He says, "Who could have thought
that you would miss

this perfect opportunity
for wiping Serbia from the map!"

And as it happens, of course,

the Bulgarians on their own,
they're being defeated.

And in itself
that's a big defeat for foreign policy.

Now Bulgaria and Austria's
interests were united in defeat,

and Bulgaria was to become
an important ally for the Central Powers,

as was the Ottoman Empire.

Germany was building
the Berlin-Baghdad railroad,

while the German
General Otto Liman von Sanders

was in charge of rebuilding
the Turkish Army on the German model.

Now Russia was getting encircled.

The basic point
from the Russian perspective

is that Serbia is their most reliable ally
in the Balkans.

It's the only country
on which they can depend,

because unlike everybody else,
Serbia has no one else to look to.

The Bulgarians can play the Russians
and Austrians off against each other.

So can the Romanians.

The Greeks can look to Germany,
they can look to Britain.

So can the Turks, even.

But Serbia, because of its commitment
to a basically anti-Austrian line,

has no one to look to but Russia.

It's therefore a secure ally, in a way,

and it's an ally
which looks even more valuable

after the two Balkan wars.

The weapon
that stood out in the Balkan wars

was the French Schneider-Creusot
75 millimeter cannon.

That brought confidence
to the French General Staff.

They were also convinced

that the Serbian army had become
quite a good army.

They had a great respect

from what was called at the time
"military virtues of the Serbian people,"

reliable, tough,
willing to sacrifice themselves.

The Serbian generals are saying,
"Look, we're very vulnerable

at the moment,
because Serbia is attempting to absorb

these newly conquered areas.

The army has to reorganize itself.

We need a new system of mobilization.

We need all sorts of things.

Give it three years.

We and the Montenegrins
will be able to put half a million men

in the field against Austria."

That is a huge potential advantage
to Russia.

That means
three, four Austrian army corps less

on the eastern front.

So at that level this is
straight realpolitik.

At another level it isn't.

It's to do with appeals
to Slav solidarity.

In the autumn of 1913,

tensions were again on the rise.

In putting down the Albanian insurgents,

the Serbian army
had penetrated deeply into Albania

and pushed for the Adriatic coast again.

Austria-Hungary now
demanded full Serbian withdrawal

from the newly formed country.

And in the Alsace-Lorraine town of Severn,

a racial incident between a German officer
and the local French population

threatened to escalate
into an open conflict.

At exactly that same time,
October-November 1913,

the king of the Belgians, Albert,
comes to Berlin

and is told both by the Kaiser and Moltke,

"We are about to go to war with France.

The German people will be so up for it

that nothing will stop
the furor teutonicus,

and you had better be on our side.

Because the penalty of being against us
will be terrible for you."

Within days,
Albert reported Wilhelm's threat

to the French government.

But for Paris, this was hardly news.

In 1905 and 1911, war with Germany
over Morocco was narrowly avoided,

so in 1913, Poincaré's administration

extended the military service
from two to three years,

increasing the number of active troops
from 480,000 to 750,000.

Poincaré was convinced
that there was a danger for France

to be drawn into a very difficult war
against Germany,

and he did not want to do anything

which might endanger Russian help
in that case, in case of war.

As soon as Poincaré
became President of the Council,

Prime Minister, if you prefer, in 1912,

he sent to Saint Petersburg

as his ambassador, Delcassé,

who was a former Foreign Minister,

who was the architect
of the Franco-British Entente,

and who had already started, in 1898,

to reinforce the Franco-Russian Alliance.

That was a sign,
an indication to the Russians.

"We mean it seriously."

During his post as ambassador
in St. Petersburg,

Théophile Delcassé conducted
comprehensive talks

with the Russian Foreign Minister
Sergey Sazonov.

The possibility of war
was an unavoidable subject.

If it comes to a war,
then we must try to win it.

They were pretty sure they could win it.

And in that case, we're going to solve
a whole series of problems.

We're going to solve the problem
of German hegemony in Europe.

We're going, of course,
to take back Alsace-Lorraine,

which had been lost
to the Germans in 1871.

The Russians will take
the Prussian part of Poland.

The Austro-Hungarian problem
will be solved

with annexation of Galicia
by the Russians,

and probably with
the end of the Austro-Hungarian Empire.

On October the 18th, 1913,

Belgrade received yet another ultimatum.

For the third time in a year,

Austria-Hungary threatened war on Serbia,

now giving her eight days
to completely withdraw from Albania.

After the two exhausting Balkan wars,

which costed Serbia
almost a billion Francs,

the whole state was
on the edge of exhaustion.

Serbia was lacking 120,000 rifles only.

Cannons and ammunition was needed.

Half of the army was in the hospitals.

And Serbia needed
at least 20 years of peace

in order to absorb these new territories.

Therefore, her main interest was to remain

in friendly relations
with Austria-Hungary.

So once again, Serbia gave in

under the Austro-Hungarian ultimatum.

The Austrians face
the frustrations of success.

Because outwardly,
the Austrians get what they want.

They want annexation of Bosnia in 1909,
they get it.

They want Serbia not to have a port

on the Adriatic coastline in 1912,
and they get that.

They want Serbia
to withdraw from Albania in 1913,

and they get what they want.

On the other hand,
they realize it's all Pyrrhic victories.

It doesn't really benefit Austria.

Serbia gets stronger and stronger.

And each of these crises cost
the Austrians an enormous sum of money,

because they always issue an ultimatum.

They almost mobilize half their troops,

they send all their troops to Bosnia
and to the border,

and it costs them hundreds
of millions of crowns.

So that after the last mobilization
at the end of 1913,

Francis Joseph, who basically favored
a peaceful policy until then,

he said, "This is the end of it.

We can no longer have
another mobilization short of war.

Next time it has to be all or nothing."

Today we use the phrase
"we live in a globalized world."

In 1914, people thought they lived
in a globalized world, too.

This is a very sophisticated
society and civilization.

This is the world of Stravinsky
and Chagall.

This is the world of, you know,
insurance companies

which already have hundreds of thousands
of insurance policies,

newspapers which have
hundreds of thousands of readers.

In a way, it's almost postmodern.

But the time around the turn
of the 20th century

was also the time
of political assassinations.

Presidents and prime ministers
of Bulgaria, Spain, USA, Russia and France

were killed during this period,

as were members of the royal families

of Japan, Portugal, Russia,
Italy and Greece.

Among others, King Alexander
and Queen Draga Obrenović of Serbia

and the Austrian Empress Elizabeth,
the wife of Franz Joseph.

In early June, there was
a government session in Belgrade.

Pašić was presiding,

and there was a report
from the civilian authorities

on the border with Austria-Hungary

that the military officers
were organizing illegal transfer

of certain persons
and weapons into Bosnia.

When they saw that the military officer

who transferred the three young Bosnians
is Major Vulović,

who was one
of the closest friends of Apis,

they knew that Apis
is probably behind this venture.

I was convinced
that the maneuvers in Bosnia

were just a pretext
for the Austrian invasion of Serbia

with Franz Ferdinand leading the way.

Before our troops
could return from the south,

Serbia would have been overrun,

and the world would face a fait accompli.

So when Tankosić came to me and said,

"Some Bosnian youth,
they keep pestering me

to let them go to Bosnia
and try something against Ferdinand,"

I said, "Well, let them go."

Pašić immediately demanded investigation.

And just in case,

he sent the cable
to his most loyal diplomat to Vienna,

Jovan Jovanović, asking him to warn
about possible turmoil in Bosnia

during the visit
of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand.

The Serbian ambassador to Vienna,

he actually approaches Biliński,

who's formally in charge
of administering Bosnia,

and tells him there are rumors
about an assassination attempt

and they should be careful.

On June the 24th, 1914,
the Kiel Canal was finished.

The passage from Baltic to the North Sea

was now open for the German dreadnoughts.

The same day, June the 24th,

the Austro-Hungarian foreign ministry

finished a diplomatic document
known as the Matscheko Memorandum,

addressing the leaders
of both Austria-Hungary and Germany.

The idea to free
the Christian Balkan peoples

from the Turkish rule in order to use them

as a weapon against Central Europe

has always been Russia's interest
in these peoples.

To put up quietly
with this unilaterally shifted situation

is not possible for the monarchy
for military-political reasons.

For these reasons,

it is in the joint
interest of the monarchy,

as much as Germany's,

to oppose promptly and energetically
a development

aspired to by Russia and supported by her,

which it will later
no longer be possible to revert.

The Kaiser issues the order
to the ambassador in London

on the 16th of June, 1914,

to discover
how Britain will position herself

if a continental war breaks out.

16th of June!

A few days before that,

Moltke and the Foreign Secretary
Gottlieb von Jagow

are traveling back by car
from Potsdam to Berlin.

And Moltke issues virtually a command

to the foreign secretary
to direct his policy in such a way

as to begin a preventive war soon.

I have the feeling
that we are going into the storm.

At what point on the horizon
and just when it will break out

I couldn't say exactly,

but from now, on the war is both
predetermined and not far off.

It was recognized
that if Franz Ferdinand went

to the maneuvers in Bosnia-Herzegovina

that he was taking a risk.

And he himself does not seem to have been

particularly enthusiastic
about undertaking this mission.

Since 1910,
there had been five attempts

on the lives of Austro-Hungarian governors

of Bosnia-Herzegovina and Croatia.

In 1910,
during the Emperor Franz Joseph's visit,

several thousand soldiers
had secured the streets of Sarajevo.

But the visit
of Franz Ferdinand on Vidovdan,

the Serbian national holiday,

was supervised by no more
than 36 of local policemen,

although more than 20,000 troops
were stationed just outside the city,

at the moment
when their Commander-in-Chief

was entering in an open-topped car.

In the second attempt of the day,
Franz Ferdinand was killed.

If we disregard this opportunity,

the monarchy shall be left at the mercy

of a renewed onset of Yugoslav, Czech,
Romanian and Italian aspirations.

The assassination in Sarajevo
is Serbia's declaration of war against us.

It's not that
the Serbian government wanted

the assassination at Sarajevo.
Certainly not!

It's perfectly clear
that it's in Serbia's interest

to postpone the conflict.

This is in the midst
of a tremendous struggle within Serbia

between the army leadership
and the government.

I think Apis Dimitrijević was actually,
as much as anything,

acting in order to undermine Pašić.

The assassination was the genuine endeavor

of Gavrilo Princip and his friends,

and I have discussed this

with professor Vaso Čubrilović
on many occasions.

They did not think that they
were obliged something to the Black Hand.

They just came to obtain weapons,

to pursue their goal in Bosnia.

The people suffer
because they're impoverished completely

and are being treated like cattle.

I wanted to avenge that,
and I'm not sorry.

There is nothing
to prove or even to suppose

that the Serbian government is accessory
to the inducement

for the crime or the furnishing
of weapons.

On the contrary,
there are reasons to believe

that this altogether is
out of the question.

There was certainly a war party
in Austria-Hungary

before the assassination,

centered around two people in particular,
Conrad von Hötzendorf

as the Austro-Hungarian
Chief of the General Staff,

who repeatedly pressed
for a preventive war against Serbia,

some say about 20 times,

and latterly Berchtold,
the Foreign Minister.

And so for them, of course,

if there is a warning coming from Serbia
about the possibility of assassination,

that isn't necessarily something
they want to pay attention to.

I expressed to His Majesty my belief

in the unavoidability of war with Serbia.

His Majesty said…

"Yes, that is entirely correct.

But do we want a war if everyone
is against us, especially Russia?"

"Don't we have
our flank covered by Germany?"

"Last night a note was sent to Germany

in order to get an answer."

"If the answer
says that Germany stands on our side,

could we then go to war against Serbia?"

"Then, yes."

And Franz Joseph knew
that the war would turn into world war.

When Biliński, the Finance Minister,
put it to Franz Joseph,

"You know this will mean a European war?"

Franz Joseph just muttered, "Yes."

The reply that comes back
via the Austrian ambassador in Berlin,

Count Szőgyény, is a resounding yes.

"We will support you,
regardless of if what you do

results in Russia becoming involved,
results in a European war."

The Kaiser writes the famous
and fatal jetzt oder nie, now or never.

We must clear up with the Serbs,

mit den Serben muß aufgeräumt werden,

which acted as a signal
to start the war, in effect.

This is the famous "blank check"
that Berlin issues to Vienna.

It's not just an encouragement,
they're also putting pressure on Vienna.

Berlin expects the dual monarchy

to take action against Serbia,

and would not understand
if we let this opportunity pass

without striking a blow.

On July the 7th,
the Austro-Hungarian government

reached the following conclusion.

All present,
except the royal Hungarian Premier,

hold the belief
that a purely diplomatic success

would be worthless,

and therefore such far-reaching demands

must be addressed to Serbia,

which will make a refusal almost certain,

so that the road to a radical solution,

by means of military action,
should be open.

Berchtold's wife actually wrote
a letter to her cousin saying,

"Poor Leopold,
he couldn't sleep last night.

He kept getting up
and changing the terms of the ultimatum.

He was so worried
that the Serbs might accept it."

The ultimatum against Serbia
was really written to be rejected.

And everybody said who read it,

"This is really
a strongly-worded document, isn't it?"

That's what the Emperor himself said.

But he knew what he was doing.

He said, "We don't want
another compromise solution.

We don't want another conference
that will lead to nothing."

What the Austrians really wanted
was Serbia to vanish into thin air.

The summer of 1914

was to be called "Europe's last summer."

Perhaps that was why,
as Stefan Zweig wrote

in his World of Yesterday,

it was "more luxuriant, more beautiful
and more summery."

On the surface, nothing indicated
the catastrophe soon to come.

All the important decision makers

are sent away on holiday,
as had previously been planned,

so as not to alert anyone to the fact

that behind the scenes,
trouble was brewing.

So Moltke goes on his second cure
that year to Carlsbad,

Jagow is on his honeymoon in Switzerland,

and in Vienna, similarly,
Conrad von Hötzendorf is away,

and it's the deputies who liaise
with each other

while the leading figures are away.

The Kaiser also took his annual cruise.

They sent him off to Norway,

telling him, "Your Majesty,
it's got to look as if we know nothing."

Because that's the German case.

We're innocent, it's the Austrians

who are pulling us into this
at a later stage.

So, "Please go on your annual cruise,
otherwise we'd look fishy.

But please don't go further
than just north of Bergen,

because then it will take too long
for you to get back."

Only Bethmann remained
in the vicinity of Berlin.

He found himself to be
in a completely unusual situation,

namely he was in position
to make decisions all by himself.

He could now decide alone
because the Kaiser, before his departure,

in a militant tone spoke
how they must finally deal with Serbia.

He demonstrated
that he was in the mood for war.

So Bethmann Hollweg
was now able to continue with the policy

which would fit in
with the Kaiser’s opinion about the war,

namely to unleash a general war.

The Austro-Hungarian government

had completed its ultimatum to Serbia
by July the 12th,

but it would be another 11 days

before it was delivered
to the Serbian government.

There is a long delay

before that ultimatum can be delivered,

and there are
a number of reasons for that.

One is that the Austrian soldiers
are on harvest leave,

and you can't simply recall them.

This would cause suspicion,
of course, elsewhere,

and also you do need to have
the harvest in

if you want to go to war.

And the other reason is that there is

an official visit
by the French president to Russia,

and you don't want to deliver
your ultimatum

at a point in time
when the French president

and the Russian foreign minister

can sit down together
and discuss their response.

Still, the Russians and the French

had good anticipation of things to come.

On July the 21st, 1914,
President Poincaré met

the Austro-Hungarian Ambassador to Russia,
Count Szapáry,

and warned him openly
that the war against Serbia

could draw Russia
and consequently France in.

Szapáry left without a word.

Poincaré told Nicholas, the Russian tsar,

"You must be firm
and you must stand by the Serbs.

You must not let Austria bullying
the Serbs as they want to do.

Because then Austria
will have sort of huge victory,

and then Austrian and German problem

would become even worse
for Paris and St. Petersburg."

On July the 23rd,

just as Poincaré left
St. Petersburg by ship,

the Austro-Hungarian ultimatum
was delivered

to the Serbian royal government
in Belgrade.

They called Pašić to come back
from the electoral campaign.

He was deep in the south of Serbia.

When they read the ultimatum,

one of the ministers said,

"Oh my God,
there is nothing left but to die again."

When Sazonov first sees
the Austrian ultimatum, he says,

"This is the European war.

There is no way the Austrians
could have written something like this

unless they had a firm German guarantee."

And also says, "48 hours?"

You know, you don't give someone
an ultimatum like this in 48 hours

unless you're pretty convinced
there's going to be war.

Serbian reply was delivered
to Baron Giesel,

the Austro-Hungarian Ambassador
to Belgrade,

by the Prime Minister
Nikola Pašić himself.

When he entered the Austrian legation,

Baron Giesel was already packed.

He was ready to leave.

He had an instruction to leave Belgrade
whatever the answer of Serbia will be.

Sir Edward Grey,
the British Foreign Secretary,

tries at that stage to reinvoke
the spirit of the Concert of Europe,

the idea of the congress system.

Let's get the great powers together
to talk about this

rather than going to war.

If it had been agreed to,
two things would have followed.

First of all, Austria-Hungary
wouldn't have had its war against Serbia.

They would be back to square one.

The Serb problem would just resurrect
itself in a matter of years,

and they would have to do it
all over again,

probably in less favorable circumstances.

And secondly,
from Germany's point of view,

the opportunity to split
the alliance facing them, the Entente,

would have gone as well.

At that point, Bethmann Hollweg
as the German Chancellor says no.

On July the 28th,

Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia
in a telegraphic note.

The same evening,
the shelling of Belgrade began

from Zemun and the Danube.

I appeal to you to help me.

An ignoble war has been declared
to a weak country.

The indignation in Russia
shared fully by me is enormous.

I foresee that very soon
I shall be overwhelmed

and be forced to take extreme measures
which will lead to war.

To try and avoid
such a calamity as a European war,

I beg you, in the name
of our old friendship,

to do what you can to stop
your allies from going too far. Nikki.

Russia is unable
not to stand up for Serbia

in such a situation.

And such a support,
if not accompanied by display of force,

was not to be taken by Vienna
or Berlin seriously.

On the other hand,
such a display of military power,

from the viewpoint of Nicholas II,

need not have necessarily resulted in war.

If Russia mobilizes against Austria,

my role as mediator will be endangered,
if not ruined. Willy.

There is a sense in which Russia
will be declaring mobilization.

We don't quite know when it will happen,

but Germany needs to declare
her own mobilization,

and more importantly, needs to send troops

into Luxembourg and Belgium
before war has been declared.

Does that not happen and is Liège
not taken within the first 11 days,

the whole plan has failed
and Germany will lose the war.

This puts an enormous time pressure
on the decision makers in Berlin,

and they decide in a meeting
that regardless of what Russia will do,

on the 31st of July,
we will have to issue the order

to march into Belgium.

They will then later on say
that this was done

in response to Russia's mobilization,
but actually the decision,

as we know from secret documents,

was taken regardless
of Russia's decisions.

On July the 30th,
Tsar Nicholas II ordered

the mobilization
of the Russian military districts

on the Austro-Hungarian border.

Your troops were mobilized

against Austria-Hungary, my ally.

The responsibility for the disaster
which is now threatening

the whole civilized world
will not be laid at my door. Willy.

The Russians partially mobilize.

In other words, they mobilize
that bit of their army

which is on the Austrian border

in order to warn the Austrians

that they will not allow
Serbia to be destroyed,

without antagonizing Germany.

The Russian military leadership revolts
at the idea of partial mobilization,

because they say it is just going to wreck
general mobilization when that is needed,

and as a result of that,
Nicholas II in the end caves in

and goes for general mobilization.

This is then used by the Germans,
always subsequently,

to say that it's the Russians
who started the war, not them.

The mood is brilliant!

The government has succeeded very well
in making us appear like the attacked.

The Kaiser signed
mobilization order on a desk

that was cut
from the British shipVictory,

which was lord Nelson's ship
at the Battle of Trafalgar.

There is exaltation in Berlin.

One general reports,
"Beaming faces everywhere!

Yeah, we're over the hump. We've done it."

Erich von Falkenhayn,
the Prussian Minister of War, says,

"Even if we perish over this,

at least it was fun,
at least it was beautiful!"

For the first time in 30 years,

I feel myself to be an Austrian,
and feel like giving

this not very hopeful empire
another chance.

The declaration of war
was received well in Vienna.

There were jubilant crowds.

The idea was
that it'd be a quick little war

and that Austria
was obviously going to win it.

They think the main role of Germany

is to support the Austrian plan
to defeat Serbia.

But the Germans,
who've got their own priority,

and their priority is the Schlieffen Plan,

they now want the Austrians
to cover them on the Russian front,

and forget about Serbia.

And they say, "Well, look,
Serbia is not all that important."

They also say to the Austrians,
in order to keep the Italians out,

"Why don't you give up part
of your Italian territories?"

And the Austrians were flabbergasted.

In the night between July 30 and 31,

an eerie scene took place
at the General Staff.

Moltke received his adjutant,
Major von Haeften,

and then Moltke told him
about the kind of war it would be.

Namely a war which will set

the European civilization back
for decades.

A war which will last for years
once England becomes involved.

He spoke about the general catastrophe,

and according to Haeften's record,
Moltke, with tears in his eyes,

turned to the portrait of his uncle,
Moltke the Elder.

Moltke the Elder previously feared

precisely such a development,

even though he had always demanded
a preventive war himself.

But on the morning of August 1st, 1914,

this was still not a European war.

The same day,
the German leaders received important news

from Ambassador Lichnowsky in London.

Lichnowsky suggests
that Sir Edward Grey has offered

the possibility of neutrality.

This is taken
as a great victory for Germany.

A second telegram even promises

that this neutrality might be accompanied
by French neutrality.

The Kaiser calls for champagne,
everybody thinks this is wonderful.

At one point,
the Kaiser actually orders Moltke

to change all his plans
and attack not France but only Russia.

And Moltke has a nervous breakdown.

He says, "Your Majesty, you can't do this.

This is an army of several million people.

We cannot just take them
from where they're supposed to go

with all these plans
and send them the other way."

"If we change the plan,
you will not have an army.

You will have a heap of disorganized men."

To which the Kaiser replies,
tragically, I think,

"Your uncle would have given me
a different answer."

Later the same night,

another telegram arrived
from Prince Lichnowsky.

And then, of course, the clarification
comes from London to say,

"No, no, I got it wrong.

The British will not allow France
to be crushed.

They will enter the war."

And then the Kaiser,
who's by this time in his pajamas,

says to Moltke,
"Okay, now do what you want."

And goes back to sleep
and then has a nervous breakdown himself.