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{\an1}We're warming the Earth
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{\an1}and the warming is causing
a further warming.
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{\an1}Most people I know haven't
even heard of feedback loops
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or tipping points,
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{\an1}but they are so crucial
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to understanding
how the world works.
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As we started models
in the late '50s,
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{\an1}we could find the climate
changing in a pretty huge way.
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NARRATOR: Scientists
have identified dozens
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of feedback loops
already in motion.
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{\an1}Each amplifies warming
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{\an1}and, combined, they are
spinning out of control.
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There were places
where we walked
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where my foot fell
into the ground
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{\an1}because there was no longer
any ground structure,
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{\an1}because the permafrost
was thawing.
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{\an1}Where we are now, it's like
driving in a car in a dense fog
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{\an1}and you know there's a cliff
out there somewhere,
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{\an1}but you don't know where.
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{\an1}Do you want to be going
60 miles an hour
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{\an1}or should you be going
about ten miles an hour?
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NEW SPEAKER:
The Earth will be just fine.
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{\an1}We may take along with us,
unfortunately,
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{\an1}lots of different species.
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{\an1}I'm not worried about the
planet. I'm worried about us.
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{\an1}NARRATOR: If we take action
now, we could slow,
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halt or even reverse
the climate crisis
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{\an1}before it's too late.
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{\an1}I'm optimistic by nature
and I become more optimistic
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{\an1}when I see so many people
that realize there's a problem.
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We can't allow it
to be too late.
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It's time to act.
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{\an1}NARRATOR: If we don't,
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{\an1}the planet will reach
a tipping point
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{\an1}where we will lose the world
as we know it.
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Earth is warming...
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{\an1}..caused by the burning
of fossil fuels like oil, coal
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and natural gas,
filling the atmosphere
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{\an1}with heat-trapping gases
like carbon dioxide,
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{\an1}methane, nitrous oxide
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at levels humans
have never seen before.
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As the world debates
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how much more warming
the planet can take...
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{\an1}One and a half degrees Celsius?
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Two degrees Celsius?
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{\an1}..the climate crisis escalates.
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{\an1}The problems are that the world
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{\an8}is becoming too hot
for the present distribution
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{\an7}of people, agriculture,
human welfare
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and human interest,
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{\an1}and it's getting worse.
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{\an1}NARRATOR: But it's more
than our emissions
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heating the globe.
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{\an1}Something else is at work here.
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{\an1}The rising temperatures
are setting in motion
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Earth's own natural
warming mechanisms
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{\an1}that then feed upon themselves.
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George Woodwell,
a distinguished scientist
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and a lion
of the environmental movement,
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{\an1}has been sounding the alarm
about them
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{\an1}for the past 50 years.
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{\an1}In a 1989 Scientific American
article,
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{\an1}he wrote that warming
caused by human activity,
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"rapid now,
may become even more rapid
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"as a result
of the warming itself."
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{\an8}30 years later,
climate activist Greta Thunberg
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{\an1}repeated his warning,
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calling them
"irreversible chain reactions".
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{\an7}The popular idea of cutting our
emissions in half in ten years
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{\an7}only gives us a 50% chance
of staying below 1.5 degrees
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{\an1}at the risk of setting off
irreversible chain reactions
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{\an1}beyond human control.
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{\an1}50% may be acceptable to you...
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..but those numbers
do not include tipping points,
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most feedback loops,
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{\an1}additional warming
hidden by toxic air pollution
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{\an1}or the aspects of equity
and climate justice.
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{\an1}NARRATOR: So, what exactly are
irreversible chain reactions,
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{\an1}what scientists refer to
as feedback loops?
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{\an1}A feedback that everybody
is familiar with
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is an audio feedback
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{\an7}where, if you put a microphone
too close to a speaker,
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{\an7}you get this terrible
high-pitched screaming.
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{\an1}And that happens because the
sound comes out of the speaker
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and it goes back
into the microphone.
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That's called
a positive feedback
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{\an1}because it amplifies the loop.
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NARRATOR:
Instead of the guitar,
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{\an1}emissions from fossil fuels
are the input
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{\an7}which add heat-trapping gases
to the atmosphere...
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{\an7}..and setting in motion
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{\an8}self-perpetuating
warming loops -
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{\an8}warming as a result
of the warming itself.
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{\an1}That ever-growing screeching
noise is an apt analogy
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for the damage that
human-caused feedback loops
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{\an1}are wreaking on the planet.
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{\an1}Scientists have identified
dozens of feedback loops
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already in motion.
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It's imperative
that we understand them
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{\an1}if we're going to solve
the climate crisis.
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{\an1}As the climate warms, forests,
once removers of carbon,
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release it back
into the atmosphere
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{\an1}as carbon dioxide or CO2.
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Frozen ground in
the Northern Hemisphere thaws
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{\an1}and emits CO2 and methane.
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{\an1}The melting of sea ice
in the Arctic Ocean,
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{\an1}increased drought and fires
in the world's forests,
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{\an1}a decay of organic matter
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from permafrost thaw
in the Northern Hemisphere
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and disruptions
to the jet stream
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{\an1}and our global weather.
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These are the kinds
of feedback loops
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{\an1}that lead to further warming,
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{\an1}triggering the release of
even more heat-trapping gases
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{\an1}and raising the temperature
even higher.
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{\an1}Each amplifies warming
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{\an1}and, combined, they are
spinning out of control.
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{\an1}If we take action now,
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we could slow, halt
or even reverse them
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{\an1}before it's too late.
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If we don't...
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{\an1}..the planet will reach
a tipping point...
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{\an1}..where we will lose the world
as we know it.
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{\an1}With more than seven and a half
billion people on Earth,
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a change this great
would spell catastrophe.
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{\an1}Humans are well-suited
to the world we've known.
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{\an1}The sun's radiation passes
through atmospheric gases,
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{\an1}primarily oxygen and nitrogen,
to the Earth's surface.
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{\an1}Some radiation is absorbed
by the planet
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{\an1}and the rest would bounce back
to space
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if it weren't
for a tiny percentage of gases
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{\an1}like carbon dioxide, methane,
water vapor and others
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that trap heat
and warm the atmosphere.
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These heat-trapping
greenhouse gases
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make up less than 1%
of the total atmosphere,
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{\an1}but they are essential
in regulating the temperature.
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{\an1}Without them, we would freeze,
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but too much of them
would overheat the planet.
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Both are possible
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and have happened
in Earth's geologic past.
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{\an1}So, the kind of things
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{\an1}that keep climate scientists
awake at night
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{\an1}stem from their familiarity
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{\an1}with the geological record
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{\an1}that shows that the climate is
capable of very abrupt changes.
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There are feedbacks
operating in the climate system
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{\an1}that may temporarily go
out of control, if you will,
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{\an1}and drive the climate
to a different state.
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We cannot rule out
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that we may be in
for such an abrupt change.
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{\an1}We don't fully understand them,
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{\an1}but we worry about that...
a lot.
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NARRATOR:
These radical changes
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include extreme
temperature swings.
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{\an1}About 500 million years ago,
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there was a cycle
of alternations
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{\an1}between a practically
ice-covered planet
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{\an1}and a very hot planet.
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{\an1}NARRATOR: During periods
known as Snowball Earth,
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it got so cold,
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These alternated
with hothouse climates
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when virtually
all the ice melted.
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{\an1}Dinosaurs lived at the poles
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where forests
and swamps flourished.
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These abrupt shifts were caused
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{\an1}by complex global processes.
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{\an1}This is the first time that
humans have been responsible
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{\an1}for an abrupt change.
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{\an1}Today, Earth would naturally be
in a cooling trend,
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{\an1}but because of human activity,
it's not.
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{\an1}KERRY EMANUEL: So, we know
from paleo proxy records
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{\an1}that the Earth has been
cooling for about 7,000 years.
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{\an1}We recovered from the peak
of the last ice age,
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which was
about 22,000 years ago,
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it went up
and it's been slowly cooling
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{\an1}until about the time
of the Industrial Revolution.
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{\an7}NARRATOR: At that time,
humans began emitting
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{\an7}vast amounts of carbon dioxide.
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{\an8}Since then,
the atmospheric content of CO2
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{\an7}has gone from 280 parts
per million
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{\an8}to over 400 today
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{\an7}and could approach 800
by the end of the century.
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{\an1}Of all the carbon dioxide
humans emit each year,
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oceans absorb about one quarter,
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{\an1}plants take up another quarter
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{\an1}and the other half stays
in the atmosphere,
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{\an1}accumulating over time and
raising Earth's temperature.
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{\an1}But the percentage
nature removes is shrinking
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{\an1}as forests are destroyed
and oceans warm.
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Scientists estimate
that doubling CO2
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{\an1}from pre-industrial levels
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could produce
an increase in temperature
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{\an1}of up to eight degrees
Fahrenheit...
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{\an1}..resulting in the deaths
of millions of people
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and the loss
of countless species.
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{\an1}It's this human-caused warming
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{\an1}that is kicking off Earth's
natural feedback loops
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{\an1}and heating up the planet
further.
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{\an1}National Medal of Science
recipient Warren Washington,
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a ground-breaking
climate pioneer,
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{\an1}began creating computer models
in the 1960s
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to predict the future
of atmospheric warming
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and the role
feedback loops play.
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WARREN WASHINGTON:
The question always was,
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how do we see
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{\an1}the feedback mechanisms
working realistically?
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{\an8}We really don't know
if we got the right amount
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{\an7}of feedback in our models...
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{\an1}..because they are
so complicated in many cases.
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We had to do
a lot of experimenting.
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{\an1}NARRATOR: That experimenting,
coupled with observations,
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paid off.
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{\an1}Because of that ground work,
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today's models
have more accurately predicted
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{\an1}what our future holds.
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{\an1}This kind of research is crucial
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{\an1}to understanding the policies
we need to implement
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to avoid disaster going forward.
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{\an8}Climate policy
really should be designed
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{\an8}to avoid crossing
the important thresholds,
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{\an8}avoid crossing
the important tipping points
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{\an1}and avoid setting off
these important feedbacks
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{\an1}because we need to essentially
ask the question,
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{\an1}how much warming is OK?
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{\an1}Is two degrees OK?
Is one and a half degrees OK?
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{\an1}We really don't know the answer
to that very well.
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(BIRDS SINGING)
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NARRATOR:
Trees play a vital role
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{\an1}in the health of the planet.
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{\an1}Through photosynthesis,
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they help regulate
Earth's temperature
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{\an1}by pulling carbon dioxide,
a powerful heat-trapping gas,
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from the atmosphere
and emitting oxygen.
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{\an1}Since carbon dioxide warms
the atmosphere,
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00:13:41,400 --> 00:13:45,100
{\an1}by removing it and storing
much of the carbon safely away
236
00:13:45,133 --> 00:13:49,933
{\an1}in their branches, trunks,
leaves, roots and soils,
237
00:13:49,966 --> 00:13:52,400
{\an1}forests help cool the Earth.
238
00:13:53,766 --> 00:13:55,100
{\an8}In fact, every year,
239
00:13:55,133 --> 00:13:57,966
{\an7}terrestrial ecosystems
remove about 30%
240
00:13:58,000 --> 00:13:59,766
{\an7}of fossil fuel emissions
241
00:13:59,800 --> 00:14:02,300
{\an7}and forests are responsible
for most of that.
242
00:14:03,233 --> 00:14:05,500
{\an8}But that percentage
is decreasing
243
00:14:05,533 --> 00:14:07,333
{\an7}as emissions increase,
244
00:14:07,366 --> 00:14:09,166
{\an8}steadily raising
Earth's temperature
245
00:14:09,200 --> 00:14:12,833
{\an7}and threatening forests'
ability to offset the warming.
246
00:14:17,100 --> 00:14:21,700
{\an1}We have warmed the Earth by
a full degree and a little more
247
00:14:21,733 --> 00:14:27,033
{\an1}and forests are suffering
increased hazards of fire
248
00:14:27,066 --> 00:14:29,400
{\an1}as they get warm and dry...
249
00:14:30,400 --> 00:14:34,033
..increased hazards
of disease...
250
00:14:34,066 --> 00:14:37,466
{\an1}..as they become vulnerable
to insects...
251
00:14:38,466 --> 00:14:40,666
{\an1}..and dying as a result.
252
00:14:43,200 --> 00:14:45,100
NARRATOR:
As trees die, they become part
253
00:14:45,133 --> 00:14:48,500
{\an1}of a dangerous feedback loop
kicked off by the warming.
254
00:14:50,333 --> 00:14:51,800
{\an1}As the temperature rises,
255
00:14:51,833 --> 00:14:54,066
{\an1}the climate becomes hotter
and drier
256
00:14:54,100 --> 00:14:55,400
and they fall prey
257
00:14:55,433 --> 00:14:57,733
{\an1}to drought, fire and insects.
258
00:14:59,266 --> 00:15:00,566
{\an1}The fewer trees left,
259
00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:02,166
{\an1}the more heat-trapping gas
260
00:15:02,200 --> 00:15:03,800
{\an1}remains in the atmosphere,
261
00:15:03,833 --> 00:15:05,533
{\an1}raising the temperature higher,
262
00:15:05,566 --> 00:15:08,166
{\an1}resulting in even more dieback.
263
00:15:10,233 --> 00:15:11,733
{\an1}As trees burn and decay,
264
00:15:11,766 --> 00:15:15,066
{\an1}the carbon they've locked away
during their lifetime,
265
00:15:15,100 --> 00:15:17,766
what scientists call
a "carbon sink",
266
00:15:17,800 --> 00:15:20,100
{\an1}is released back into the air.
267
00:15:23,433 --> 00:15:26,233
{\an1}GEORGE WOODWELL: It's entirely
possible we reach a point
268
00:15:26,266 --> 00:15:29,233
{\an1}where we're killing off forests
much more rapidly
269
00:15:29,266 --> 00:15:32,433
{\an1}than carbon can be fixed
by forests.
270
00:15:32,466 --> 00:15:37,266
The net result then
is to produce a feedback
271
00:15:37,300 --> 00:15:38,833
that's lethal.
272
00:15:38,866 --> 00:15:40,966
(BIRDS SINGING)
273
00:15:43,100 --> 00:15:44,933
NARRATOR:
Today, we have a choice -
274
00:15:44,966 --> 00:15:48,033
{\an1}allow trees to do their job
and cool the planet
275
00:15:48,066 --> 00:15:51,166
{\an1}or jeopardize the forests
we have.
276
00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:53,033
That's the path
we're on right now.
277
00:15:53,866 --> 00:15:55,933
How we protect
and manage forests
278
00:15:55,966 --> 00:15:59,000
{\an1}will play a large role
in determining our future.
279
00:16:02,266 --> 00:16:03,800
When it comes to global warming,
280
00:16:03,833 --> 00:16:06,400
three major forests
matter the most -
281
00:16:06,433 --> 00:16:10,833
{\an1}the tropical, the boreal
and the temperate.
282
00:16:10,866 --> 00:16:13,900
{\an1}No forest is more critical
for cooling the planet
283
00:16:13,933 --> 00:16:15,533
than the Amazon.
284
00:16:15,566 --> 00:16:18,800
Spanning more
than two million square miles
285
00:16:18,833 --> 00:16:20,733
{\an1}across nine countries,
286
00:16:20,766 --> 00:16:25,266
{\an1}this tropical forest has been
storing carbon for millennia,
287
00:16:25,300 --> 00:16:27,633
{\an1}yet it is dangerously close
288
00:16:27,666 --> 00:16:30,900
{\an1}to releasing more carbon
than it absorbs.
289
00:16:37,233 --> 00:16:40,266
{\an1}Mike Coe is the Director
of the Tropics Program
290
00:16:40,300 --> 00:16:43,000
at the Woodwell
Climate Research Center.
291
00:16:45,100 --> 00:16:46,866
For over 20 years,
he has studied
292
00:16:46,900 --> 00:16:49,533
how deforestation
in the Amazon rainforest
293
00:16:49,566 --> 00:16:52,400
{\an1}affects the local climate
and environment.
294
00:16:54,466 --> 00:16:56,633
{\an1}MIKE COE: Tropical rainforests
probably account
295
00:16:56,666 --> 00:17:02,433
{\an1}for about 15 to 20% of all
the terrestrial carbon sink
296
00:17:02,466 --> 00:17:04,366
{\an7}and the Amazon is half of that.
297
00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:06,433
{\an8}So, we're talking
about a significant fraction
298
00:17:06,466 --> 00:17:08,233
{\an7}of our annual emissions
are being taken up
299
00:17:08,266 --> 00:17:09,433
{\an7}by the Amazon forest.
300
00:17:09,466 --> 00:17:11,366
NARRATOR:
But in the last 50 years,
301
00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:14,600
{\an1}nearly 20% of this forest
has been lost,
302
00:17:14,633 --> 00:17:17,400
{\an1}mostly to slash-and-burn
land clearing,
303
00:17:17,433 --> 00:17:22,066
{\an1}triggering fires, insects
and tree dieback.
304
00:17:22,100 --> 00:17:24,900
{\an1}This not only releases
the carbon stored there,
305
00:17:24,933 --> 00:17:27,733
it jeopardizes
an important cooling function
306
00:17:27,766 --> 00:17:29,533
{\an1}of the Amazon rainforest.
307
00:17:30,966 --> 00:17:32,600
{\an1}During transpiration,
308
00:17:32,633 --> 00:17:34,633
roots pull water
out of the ground
309
00:17:34,666 --> 00:17:37,133
{\an1}and release it as water vapor
310
00:17:37,166 --> 00:17:39,933
{\an1}through tiny holes
in the tree's leaves,
311
00:17:39,966 --> 00:17:43,300
{\an1}creating a cooling effect
on the surrounding air.
312
00:17:43,333 --> 00:17:46,200
{\an1}In the Amazon, transpiration
can cool the region
313
00:17:46,233 --> 00:17:49,200
by as much
as ten degrees Fahrenheit.
314
00:17:52,033 --> 00:17:53,833
{\an1}MIKE COE: When we lose trees
in the Amazon,
315
00:17:53,866 --> 00:17:55,500
{\an1}when we cut them down,
what we're doing
316
00:17:55,533 --> 00:17:57,633
{\an1}is we're shutting off
that transpiration,
317
00:17:57,666 --> 00:17:59,866
so what you get
is a drier climate.
318
00:17:59,900 --> 00:18:02,533
{\an1}And the more you deforest,
the drier it gets.
319
00:18:03,533 --> 00:18:05,133
NARRATOR:
Over the past two decades,
320
00:18:05,166 --> 00:18:07,933
{\an1}the dry season has extended
several weeks,
321
00:18:07,966 --> 00:18:09,500
{\an1}stressing trees even more...
322
00:18:10,800 --> 00:18:13,300
..and creating
an ideal environment
323
00:18:13,333 --> 00:18:14,900
for fires to spread.
324
00:18:16,800 --> 00:18:18,300
MIKE COE:
During extreme droughts,
325
00:18:18,333 --> 00:18:20,200
a huge amount
of the forest burns.
326
00:18:20,233 --> 00:18:23,033
{\an1}That turns the forest that year
from a net sink
327
00:18:23,066 --> 00:18:24,700
{\an1}to a net source of carbon.
328
00:18:24,733 --> 00:18:26,033
We can do the math.
329
00:18:26,066 --> 00:18:28,166
If that happens
five times a decade,
330
00:18:28,200 --> 00:18:31,633
{\an1}this forest is now a source.
331
00:18:31,666 --> 00:18:34,100
{\an8}NARRATOR: Today,
tropical forests are absorbing
332
00:18:34,133 --> 00:18:36,200
{\an7}one-third less carbon
333
00:18:36,233 --> 00:18:39,300
{\an7}than they did in the 1990s.
334
00:18:39,333 --> 00:18:42,500
{\an7}Scientists predict that
with the loss of so many trees,
335
00:18:42,533 --> 00:18:47,000
{\an1}the Amazon could flip
to emitting more carbon
336
00:18:47,033 --> 00:18:50,466
than it stores
as soon as the next decade.
337
00:18:57,700 --> 00:18:59,966
{\an1}The next major forest
at risk of tipping
338
00:19:00,000 --> 00:19:03,100
from a carbon sink
to a carbon source
339
00:19:03,133 --> 00:19:05,933
is the boreal
encircling the North Pole
340
00:19:05,966 --> 00:19:08,200
through Siberia
and North America.
341
00:19:10,500 --> 00:19:12,833
{\an1}The largest forested region
in the world,
342
00:19:12,866 --> 00:19:15,100
{\an1}this vast coniferous expanse
343
00:19:15,133 --> 00:19:19,166
{\an1}stores an estimated two-thirds
of all forest carbon,
344
00:19:19,200 --> 00:19:22,966
{\an1}most of it locked away in
frozen plant and animal remains
345
00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:25,000
deep in the ground.
346
00:19:25,033 --> 00:19:26,866
But that's changing.
347
00:19:26,900 --> 00:19:28,400
{\an1}As with tropical forests,
348
00:19:28,433 --> 00:19:30,500
{\an1}the warmer, drier climate here
349
00:19:30,533 --> 00:19:33,400
is making the trees
more vulnerable to disease,
350
00:19:33,433 --> 00:19:35,500
insects and fire.
351
00:19:37,166 --> 00:19:40,233
{\an1}Brendan Rogers has been
studying how boreal forests
352
00:19:40,266 --> 00:19:43,066
{\an1}respond to climate change
for the past decade.
353
00:19:43,100 --> 00:19:45,900
{\an1}Wildfires are getting worse
across the boreal zone.
354
00:19:45,933 --> 00:19:48,133
{\an7}We're seeing more and more
large fire seasons,
355
00:19:48,166 --> 00:19:51,500
{\an7}record-breaking fire seasons
every year.
356
00:19:51,533 --> 00:19:53,400
NARRATOR:
Unlike in tropical forests,
357
00:19:53,433 --> 00:19:56,900
{\an1}the fires here strip off
the insulating ground cover,
358
00:19:56,933 --> 00:20:00,600
{\an1}preventing it from building up
in between the frequent burns.
359
00:20:01,633 --> 00:20:03,000
{\an1}Without this protective layer,
360
00:20:03,033 --> 00:20:06,000
fires reach further
and further down,
361
00:20:06,033 --> 00:20:09,233
{\an1}burning the organic matter
stored in the soil.
362
00:20:10,166 --> 00:20:11,833
About 75 to 90%
363
00:20:11,866 --> 00:20:14,900
{\an1}of all the carbon stored
in these forests is underground
364
00:20:14,933 --> 00:20:16,866
and that is actually
the majority of the carbon
365
00:20:16,900 --> 00:20:19,833
{\an1}that's getting released
from these fires.
366
00:20:19,866 --> 00:20:21,966
{\an1}NARRATOR: The fires kick off
a feedback loop,
367
00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:24,833
triggered by warming
in the boreal zone.
368
00:20:24,866 --> 00:20:27,633
{\an1}More fires burn carbon
deeper down in the soil,
369
00:20:27,666 --> 00:20:32,233
{\an1}releasing carbon dioxide and
methane into the atmosphere,
370
00:20:32,266 --> 00:20:35,866
{\an1}heat-trapping gases that make
the climate hotter and drier,
371
00:20:35,900 --> 00:20:38,000
{\an1}leading to more wildfires.
372
00:20:40,666 --> 00:20:43,566
{\an1}Like the Amazon, the boreal
forest is going to switch
373
00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:46,333
from a carbon sink
to a carbon source.
374
00:20:47,300 --> 00:20:49,100
{\an1}Scientists don't know
exactly when,
375
00:20:49,133 --> 00:20:51,366
but predict
that at the current rate,
376
00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:53,700
it will happen
by the end of this century...
377
00:20:54,600 --> 00:20:56,066
{\an1}..crossing a tipping point
378
00:20:56,100 --> 00:20:59,233
that the forest
can no longer recover from.
379
00:20:59,266 --> 00:21:02,100
{\an1}The scary thing is not knowing
where that tipping point is.
380
00:21:03,500 --> 00:21:05,633
(DISTANT BIRDS CRY)
381
00:21:12,800 --> 00:21:14,833
NARRATOR:
The temperate forest makes up
382
00:21:14,866 --> 00:21:17,200
only one quarter
of the world's forests,
383
00:21:17,233 --> 00:21:18,533
{\an1}but it's our best hope
384
00:21:18,566 --> 00:21:21,500
{\an1}since the tropical and
boreal forests are on the brink
385
00:21:21,533 --> 00:21:23,933
{\an1}of becoming emitters of carbon.
386
00:21:23,966 --> 00:21:25,566
(BIRDS SINGING)
387
00:21:26,866 --> 00:21:28,733
{\an1}Once cleared for agriculture,
388
00:21:28,766 --> 00:21:31,566
{\an1}many temperate forests
in the US and Europe
389
00:21:31,600 --> 00:21:33,766
have made a comeback
in recent decades.
390
00:21:35,500 --> 00:21:38,400
{\an1}But in the south-eastern US,
old forests are being cut down
391
00:21:38,433 --> 00:21:41,566
{\an1}by the wood pellet industry
for burning,
392
00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:45,633
{\an1}releasing decades of stored
carbon back into the air.
393
00:21:46,900 --> 00:21:49,333
{\an1}Even though these forests
are being replanted,
394
00:21:49,366 --> 00:21:51,666
{\an1}when it comes to offsetting
global warming,
395
00:21:51,700 --> 00:21:54,766
{\an1}old and young forests
are not equal.
396
00:21:57,300 --> 00:21:59,366
{\an1}Beverly Law has been measuring
the exchange
397
00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:02,133
{\an1}of both carbon dioxide and water
398
00:22:02,166 --> 00:22:04,633
between our forests
and our atmosphere
399
00:22:04,666 --> 00:22:06,266
{\an1}for the last 25 years.
400
00:22:08,266 --> 00:22:10,666
{\an1}In a young forest ecosystem,
401
00:22:10,700 --> 00:22:12,633
{\an8}there aren't
that many trees there
402
00:22:12,666 --> 00:22:16,666
{\an7}and they're not taking up much
carbon from the atmosphere.
403
00:22:18,533 --> 00:22:21,533
An older forest has
a lot of carbon stored
404
00:22:21,566 --> 00:22:23,466
{\an1}compared to a younger forest.
405
00:22:25,233 --> 00:22:28,300
{\an1}If I were to try and mitigate
climate change,
406
00:22:28,333 --> 00:22:30,966
my best strategy is
when you have forests
407
00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:34,666
{\an1}that have low vulnerability
to climate change in the future
408
00:22:34,700 --> 00:22:37,133
and they store
a lot of carbon already
409
00:22:37,166 --> 00:22:40,733
{\an1}is to keep those forests
like they are, preserve them.
410
00:22:43,833 --> 00:22:45,333
NARRATOR:
When a tree is logged,
411
00:22:45,366 --> 00:22:47,466
{\an1}one half to two thirds
of the carbon it stores
412
00:22:47,500 --> 00:22:49,933
{\an1}is released through decay
413
00:22:49,966 --> 00:22:53,300
{\an1}or burning of the unused
branches, leaves and roots,
414
00:22:53,333 --> 00:22:56,700
as well as
from the surrounding soil.
415
00:22:56,733 --> 00:23:00,866
Today, 17% of global
carbon emissions each year
416
00:23:00,900 --> 00:23:02,933
{\an1}can be attributed to logging
417
00:23:02,966 --> 00:23:05,866
{\an1}and burning wood pellets
for bioenergy.
418
00:23:07,366 --> 00:23:08,533
{\an1}BEVERLY LAW: In Oregon,
419
00:23:08,566 --> 00:23:12,800
{\an1}of all the forest harvested
over the past 100 years,
420
00:23:12,833 --> 00:23:18,233
{\an1}65% of that carbon has gone
back to the atmosphere.
421
00:23:18,266 --> 00:23:21,766
{\an1}This is just the wrong time
for that in terms of climate.
422
00:23:26,833 --> 00:23:28,333
NARRATOR:
With the clock ticking,
423
00:23:28,366 --> 00:23:32,033
{\an1}it comes down to how we manage
temperate forests -
424
00:23:32,066 --> 00:23:35,100
use them for commercial purposes
425
00:23:35,133 --> 00:23:38,100
or keep them intact
to cool the planet.
426
00:23:41,333 --> 00:23:45,300
{\an1}If we decide that we really
are going to stabilize
427
00:23:45,333 --> 00:23:47,133
{\an1}or even cool the Earth,
428
00:23:47,166 --> 00:23:51,800
{\an1}we will have to rebuild forests
around the world.
429
00:24:00,333 --> 00:24:02,100
NARRATOR:
In the Northern Hemisphere,
430
00:24:02,133 --> 00:24:04,700
{\an1}nearly one quarter of the land
is covered
431
00:24:04,733 --> 00:24:09,333
by an icy expanse
called permafrost.
432
00:24:09,366 --> 00:24:12,066
{\an1}Extending from the surface
down thousands of feet,
433
00:24:12,100 --> 00:24:14,433
its soil contains
billions of tonnes
434
00:24:14,466 --> 00:24:18,033
of carbon-rich plant
and animal remains,
435
00:24:18,066 --> 00:24:21,266
suspended
in a perpetually frozen state.
436
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:25,566
{\an1}But now, with human activity
warming the Arctic
437
00:24:25,600 --> 00:24:29,033
{\an1}two to three times faster
than the rest of the globe,
438
00:24:29,066 --> 00:24:31,633
this permafrost
is starting to thaw.
439
00:24:32,900 --> 00:24:35,866
{\an1}And alarmingly, it contains
twice as much carbon
440
00:24:35,900 --> 00:24:37,700
{\an1}as in the atmosphere today...
441
00:24:38,666 --> 00:24:40,000
{\an1}..and three times as much
442
00:24:40,033 --> 00:24:42,866
{\an1}as in all the world's forests
combined.
443
00:24:47,466 --> 00:24:51,433
{\an1}As it thaws, microscopic
animals called microbes
444
00:24:51,466 --> 00:24:54,866
{\an1}that have been frozen for up to
tens of thousands of years
445
00:24:54,900 --> 00:24:56,233
are waking up
446
00:24:56,266 --> 00:24:59,433
{\an1}and feeding on the newly thawed
carbon remains,
447
00:24:59,466 --> 00:25:03,366
emitting dangerous
heat-trapping gases.
448
00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:06,433
{\an1}If we were to take
all of the microbes on Earth,
449
00:25:06,466 --> 00:25:09,733
{\an7}we'd find that they'd weigh
probably 50 times more
450
00:25:09,766 --> 00:25:12,633
{\an7}than all of the animals
on Earth.
451
00:25:13,566 --> 00:25:15,300
{\an1}Now, these microbes need to eat
452
00:25:15,333 --> 00:25:20,200
{\an1}and what they eat are the dead
remains of plants and animals.
453
00:25:20,233 --> 00:25:23,466
And as a by-product
of feeding on that material,
454
00:25:23,500 --> 00:25:26,166
{\an1}they produce carbon dioxide
and methane.
455
00:25:28,566 --> 00:25:31,566
{\an1}It's like having a chicken
in your freezer,
456
00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:33,766
{\an7}you take the chicken out,
you put it on the counter
457
00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:35,000
{\an7}and it starts to thaw.
458
00:25:35,033 --> 00:25:36,333
{\an8}Then you go away for the weekend
459
00:25:36,366 --> 00:25:38,209
{\an7}and you forgot about
the chicken on the counter,
460
00:25:38,233 --> 00:25:39,933
you come back
and the house smells,
461
00:25:39,966 --> 00:25:42,400
{\an1}the chicken's decomposed.
462
00:25:42,433 --> 00:25:45,466
{\an1}That's what happens to the
carbon that's in permafrost.
463
00:25:45,500 --> 00:25:48,100
{\an1}It's fuel for microbes.
464
00:25:48,133 --> 00:25:50,300
{\an1}And as they're breaking it down
and using that fuel,
465
00:25:50,333 --> 00:25:52,466
they're releasing
greenhouse gases,
466
00:25:52,500 --> 00:25:54,900
{\an1}carbon dioxide and methane,
into the atmosphere.
467
00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:58,300
NARRATOR:
Driven by fossil fuel emissions
468
00:25:58,333 --> 00:26:00,233
{\an1}raising the temperature
in the Arctic,
469
00:26:00,266 --> 00:26:03,133
{\an1}these microbes are amplifying
the warming
470
00:26:03,166 --> 00:26:04,800
{\an1}as the permafrost thaws
471
00:26:04,833 --> 00:26:07,300
by releasing
more carbon dioxide and methane
472
00:26:07,333 --> 00:26:09,366
into the atmosphere
473
00:26:09,400 --> 00:26:12,000
{\an1}and warming the climate
even more
474
00:26:12,033 --> 00:26:13,933
{\an1}in a self-perpetuating loop.
475
00:26:15,666 --> 00:26:18,500
Which of these
heat-trapping gases is released
476
00:26:18,533 --> 00:26:20,000
{\an1}depends on the environment
477
00:26:20,033 --> 00:26:23,000
{\an1}in which microbes digest
the carbon.
478
00:26:23,033 --> 00:26:27,000
{\an7}In oxygen-rich conditions
like soil and lake surfaces,
479
00:26:27,033 --> 00:26:30,766
{\an7}microbes produce carbon dioxide
as a by-product.
480
00:26:31,700 --> 00:26:33,466
{\an8}But in environments
lacking oxygen
481
00:26:33,500 --> 00:26:35,633
{\an8}like bogs
and muddy lake bottoms,
482
00:26:35,666 --> 00:26:37,833
{\an8}they produce methane
483
00:26:37,866 --> 00:26:40,100
{\an7}which is nearly 30 times
more potent
484
00:26:40,133 --> 00:26:42,666
{\an8}at trapping heat
than carbon dioxide.
485
00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:50,533
The amount of carbon
that could be released
486
00:26:50,566 --> 00:26:53,066
{\an1}from thawing permafrost
by the end of this century
487
00:26:53,100 --> 00:26:58,266
{\an1}has been estimated to be up to
150 billion tonnes of carbon.
488
00:26:58,300 --> 00:27:01,233
{\an1}So, to put that in context,
the US is currently
489
00:27:01,266 --> 00:27:04,000
{\an1}the second largest
greenhouse gas emitting country
490
00:27:04,033 --> 00:27:05,266
in the world.
491
00:27:06,133 --> 00:27:08,100
If we took
our current US emissions
492
00:27:08,133 --> 00:27:10,066
{\an1}and added that up through 2100,
493
00:27:10,100 --> 00:27:12,266
this is on par
with the amount of carbon
494
00:27:12,300 --> 00:27:15,366
{\an1}that might be released
from thawing permafrost.
495
00:27:17,300 --> 00:27:18,966
NARRATOR:
Last summer, while working
496
00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:21,133
{\an1}in her usual field location
in Alaska,
497
00:27:21,166 --> 00:27:24,166
Natali witnessed
a remarkable acceleration
498
00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:25,966
{\an1}of permafrost melting.
499
00:27:27,466 --> 00:27:29,433
{\an1}SUE NATALI: First of all,
it was very, very warm.
500
00:27:29,466 --> 00:27:31,733
{\an1}It was 90 degrees Fahrenheit
in the tundra.
501
00:27:31,766 --> 00:27:33,466
There were places
where we walked
502
00:27:33,500 --> 00:27:35,466
where my foot fell
into the ground
503
00:27:35,500 --> 00:27:38,066
{\an1}because there was no longer
any ground structure,
504
00:27:38,100 --> 00:27:40,666
{\an1}because the permafrost
was thawing.
505
00:27:40,700 --> 00:27:43,700
{\an1}I've never seen change
happening that quickly
506
00:27:43,733 --> 00:27:45,666
{\an1}from one year to the next.
507
00:27:45,700 --> 00:27:47,366
NARRATOR:
The thawing permafrost
508
00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:49,966
{\an1}can entirely transform
the landscape,
509
00:27:50,000 --> 00:27:53,766
{\an1}as Natali has seen
in Duvanny Yar, Russia.
510
00:27:53,800 --> 00:27:57,333
{\an1}SUE NATALI: I had never seen
permafrost thaw
511
00:27:57,366 --> 00:28:01,000
and ground collapse
of that magnitude.
512
00:28:04,333 --> 00:28:06,600
{\an1}You see these really,
really fine roots
513
00:28:06,633 --> 00:28:10,300
{\an1}that have been frozen
for 40,000 years.
514
00:28:10,333 --> 00:28:13,233
Once they're thawed,
they'll decompose in a year.
515
00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:17,566
{\an1}NARRATOR: And something else
is having a dramatic effect
516
00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:20,033
{\an1}on the landscape in Siberia -
517
00:28:20,066 --> 00:28:22,866
{\an1}crater-like holes which are
thought to be the result
518
00:28:22,900 --> 00:28:26,833
{\an1}of a build-up of methane
under a thick layer of ice.
519
00:28:28,966 --> 00:28:31,000
When the ice melts,
the pressure gives way,
520
00:28:31,033 --> 00:28:32,766
{\an1}causing an explosion.
521
00:28:33,833 --> 00:28:36,400
A year or two later,
the craters form lakes
522
00:28:36,433 --> 00:28:38,900
that release
the previously buried methane
523
00:28:38,933 --> 00:28:40,566
into the atmosphere.
524
00:28:44,066 --> 00:28:47,033
{\an1}Sometimes lakes that form
from shifts in the landscape
525
00:28:47,066 --> 00:28:49,233
{\an1}emit so much methane,
526
00:28:49,266 --> 00:28:51,033
{\an1}you can light them on fire.
527
00:28:57,200 --> 00:28:58,433
{\an1}As the permafrost thaws
528
00:28:58,466 --> 00:29:02,033
{\an1}and the Arctic heats up faster
than the rest of the planet,
529
00:29:02,066 --> 00:29:05,400
{\an1}that blanket of warming mixes
into the atmosphere,
530
00:29:05,433 --> 00:29:06,766
encircles the globe
531
00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:10,000
{\an1}and it leads to all kinds
of global disasters.
532
00:29:11,100 --> 00:29:13,400
{\an1}Crop failure in the Midwest.
533
00:29:14,533 --> 00:29:16,966
{\an1}Droughts and flooding in Africa.
534
00:29:18,500 --> 00:29:20,566
{\an1}Record heatwaves in India.
535
00:29:24,866 --> 00:29:26,300
{\an1}And in the Northern Hemisphere,
536
00:29:26,333 --> 00:29:28,600
home to most
of the world's lakes,
537
00:29:28,633 --> 00:29:32,233
{\an1}the warming is having an impact
similar to the permafrost thaw
538
00:29:32,266 --> 00:29:35,833
{\an1}by bringing new food sources to
the microbes that live there.
539
00:29:39,133 --> 00:29:41,400
Plant species
from south of this region
540
00:29:41,433 --> 00:29:45,133
{\an1}are migrating north, setting
off another feedback loop.
541
00:29:46,300 --> 00:29:48,333
ANDREW TANENTZAP:
Traditionally, the pine needles
542
00:29:48,366 --> 00:29:50,133
that the microbes
would be digesting
543
00:29:50,166 --> 00:29:52,833
would have provided
quite a limited diversity
544
00:29:52,866 --> 00:29:54,433
of food sources,
545
00:29:54,466 --> 00:29:57,166
{\an1}but now with deciduous
broad-leaf species
546
00:29:57,200 --> 00:29:58,566
like maple and oak,
547
00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:01,766
{\an1}that's bringing a much greater
diversity of organic matter
548
00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:04,366
and carbon
for microbes to digest.
549
00:30:05,500 --> 00:30:07,000
NARRATOR:
More food choices means
550
00:30:07,033 --> 00:30:09,066
an increase
in microbial activity
551
00:30:09,100 --> 00:30:12,166
{\an1}which, in muddy lake bottoms
lacking oxygen,
552
00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:15,633
{\an7}leads to methane production,
a warmer climate
553
00:30:15,666 --> 00:30:17,166
{\an7}and more greening of lakes
554
00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:19,633
{\an7}in an ever-amplifying loop.
555
00:30:20,866 --> 00:30:22,233
{\an7}And the geographical range
556
00:30:22,266 --> 00:30:24,100
{\an7}where this dynamic is happening
557
00:30:24,133 --> 00:30:25,566
{\an8}is expanding.
558
00:30:28,600 --> 00:30:30,233
ANDREW TANENTZAP:
Another major change
559
00:30:30,266 --> 00:30:31,866
{\an1}that we're seeing happening
around lakes
560
00:30:31,900 --> 00:30:36,033
{\an1}is that cattails are moving
northwards into the lakes
561
00:30:36,066 --> 00:30:38,700
{\an1}where they previously
didn't grow.
562
00:30:38,733 --> 00:30:41,900
And where we compared
the effect of cattails
563
00:30:41,933 --> 00:30:44,400
{\an1}versus pines and oaks and maples
564
00:30:44,433 --> 00:30:49,000
{\an1}on the amount of methane
released from lake sediments...
565
00:30:49,966 --> 00:30:51,133
..what we found was
566
00:30:51,166 --> 00:30:54,300
{\an1}that there was at least
400 times more methane produced
567
00:30:54,333 --> 00:30:56,866
when we added the cattail litter
568
00:30:56,900 --> 00:30:59,666
{\an1}than any of the tree litter.
569
00:30:59,700 --> 00:31:02,100
{\an8}NARRATOR: Models show
that in the next 50 years,
570
00:31:02,133 --> 00:31:04,366
{\an7}cattails around lakes
will double
571
00:31:04,400 --> 00:31:07,300
{\an7}and since more cattails
means more methane,
572
00:31:07,333 --> 00:31:11,400
{\an7}methane production is predicted
to increase by 70%
573
00:31:11,433 --> 00:31:14,166
{\an7}across all northern lakes.
574
00:31:14,200 --> 00:31:17,366
{\an1}From the global climate
perspective, this is something
575
00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:19,866
that we really need
to be worrying about
576
00:31:19,900 --> 00:31:23,033
{\an1}and thinking about how
to actually mitigate
577
00:31:23,066 --> 00:31:25,900
{\an1}and offset these processes.
578
00:31:28,033 --> 00:31:29,300
{\an1}NARRATOR: At Earth's poles,
579
00:31:29,333 --> 00:31:32,933
{\an1}snow and ice reflect
up to 85% of the sun's rays
580
00:31:32,966 --> 00:31:35,800
{\an1}away from the surface
and back into space,
581
00:31:35,833 --> 00:31:38,566
{\an1}helping to keep the planet
from becoming too hot.
582
00:31:39,666 --> 00:31:42,466
Today,
that equilibrium is at risk
583
00:31:42,500 --> 00:31:45,066
{\an1}as one of the most important
cooling mechanisms,
584
00:31:45,100 --> 00:31:49,533
{\an1}the albedo effect or Earth's
reflectivity, is threatened.
585
00:31:51,666 --> 00:31:53,033
{\an1}Over the past few decades,
586
00:31:53,066 --> 00:31:56,566
{\an1}this natural mirror has begun
to break down
587
00:31:56,600 --> 00:31:59,533
{\an1}as fossil fuel emissions
raise temperatures,
588
00:31:59,566 --> 00:32:01,900
{\an1}melt snow and ice cover
589
00:32:01,933 --> 00:32:04,300
and reduce the planet's albedo.
590
00:32:06,966 --> 00:32:10,266
{\an1}As the planet loses its ability
to reflect sunlight,
591
00:32:10,300 --> 00:32:13,666
a dangerous warming
feedback loop is triggered.
592
00:32:18,200 --> 00:32:20,966
{\an1}The most alarming change
is happening in the far north
593
00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:23,866
{\an1}where the temperature rise
is causing the snow cover
594
00:32:23,900 --> 00:32:26,500
and sea ice
to rapidly disappear.
595
00:32:29,300 --> 00:32:31,966
Don Perovich is
a sea ice geophysicist
596
00:32:32,000 --> 00:32:33,600
{\an1}at Dartmouth College.
597
00:32:33,633 --> 00:32:34,800
{\an1}For the past 30 years,
598
00:32:34,833 --> 00:32:37,633
he's been documenting
big changes in the Arctic.
599
00:32:37,666 --> 00:32:40,666
{\an1}DON PEROVICH: There's always
been this annual cycle.
600
00:32:40,700 --> 00:32:44,933
{\an7}The ice grows usually, say, for
nine or ten months of the year,
601
00:32:44,966 --> 00:32:46,866
{\an8}then melts
for a couple of months.
602
00:32:46,900 --> 00:32:50,700
What's changing now
is the timing.
603
00:32:51,533 --> 00:32:53,566
The melting is starting earlier,
604
00:32:53,600 --> 00:32:55,600
{\an1}the freezing is starting later.
605
00:32:57,033 --> 00:33:00,433
{\an1}We have much less coverage
every month of the year,
606
00:33:00,466 --> 00:33:02,733
{\an1}particularly at the end
of summer.
607
00:33:05,366 --> 00:33:07,866
{\an1}NARRATOR: Global warming
from human-caused emissions
608
00:33:07,900 --> 00:33:09,266
{\an1}of heat-trapping gases,
609
00:33:09,300 --> 00:33:13,000
{\an1}carbon dioxide, methane,
nitrous oxide and others,
610
00:33:13,033 --> 00:33:15,100
{\an1}is increasing the temperature
in the Arctic
611
00:33:15,133 --> 00:33:18,033
{\an1}two to three times faster
than the rest of the planet.
612
00:33:19,466 --> 00:33:22,966
{\an1}But that warming is then
amplified by the loss of albedo
613
00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:25,966
{\an1}as the reflective ice
and snow disappear.
614
00:33:28,533 --> 00:33:30,300
{\an1}DON PEROVICH: Say it's April
615
00:33:30,333 --> 00:33:32,233
and we're flying
above the Arctic
616
00:33:32,266 --> 00:33:34,666
and we look down
at the sea ice cover.
617
00:33:34,700 --> 00:33:38,366
{\an1}It's covered by snow,
it's bright and it's white.
618
00:33:38,400 --> 00:33:41,466
Now, summer comes,
that snow melts.
619
00:33:41,500 --> 00:33:43,700
{\an1}You get more open ocean.
620
00:33:43,733 --> 00:33:46,166
You're absorbing much more heat.
621
00:33:46,200 --> 00:33:48,333
{\an1}Instead of reflecting 85%,
622
00:33:48,366 --> 00:33:50,600
{\an1}you're absorbing 90%.
623
00:33:50,633 --> 00:33:55,366
{\an1}And so you're replacing one
of the best natural reflectors,
624
00:33:55,400 --> 00:33:56,566
snow,
625
00:33:56,600 --> 00:33:59,700
{\an1}with one of the worst,
the open ocean.
626
00:34:02,566 --> 00:34:04,833
{\an7}NARRATOR: Now, instead
of reflecting the sunlight,
627
00:34:04,866 --> 00:34:06,700
{\an7}the ocean absorbs it,
628
00:34:06,733 --> 00:34:08,700
{\an7}heats up and melts more ice,
629
00:34:08,733 --> 00:34:10,300
{\an7}exposing more dark ocean
630
00:34:10,333 --> 00:34:12,133
{\an7}which absorbs more sunlight
631
00:34:12,166 --> 00:34:14,533
{\an7}in an amplifying cycle.
632
00:34:17,566 --> 00:34:20,700
GEORGE WOODWELL:
As those darker waters warm,
633
00:34:20,733 --> 00:34:24,966
{\an1}they emit carbon dioxide
and water vapor,
634
00:34:25,000 --> 00:34:27,300
{\an1}warming things further.
635
00:34:27,333 --> 00:34:29,266
{\an1}So, there are several aspects
636
00:34:29,300 --> 00:34:32,333
to this feedback
in the Arctic problem
637
00:34:32,366 --> 00:34:36,433
{\an1}which are truly frightening.
638
00:34:36,466 --> 00:34:38,766
{\an1}NARRATOR: Scientists have been
measuring Arctic sea ice
639
00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:40,966
{\an1}since long before satellites
began taking
640
00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:44,033
{\an1}reliable measurements
in the early 1970s.
641
00:34:45,833 --> 00:34:48,433
{\an1}By the end of that decade,
the climate models predicted
642
00:34:48,466 --> 00:34:51,233
sea ice would begin
to disappear with the increase
643
00:34:51,266 --> 00:34:54,233
{\an1}of heat-trapping gases
in the atmosphere.
644
00:34:55,866 --> 00:34:58,166
Marika Holland is
a climate modeler
645
00:34:58,200 --> 00:35:00,900
{\an1}from the National Center
for Atmosphere Research.
646
00:35:02,933 --> 00:35:04,833
MARIKA HOLLAND:
So, our first climate models
647
00:35:04,866 --> 00:35:07,466
{\an1}were developed in the 1970s.
648
00:35:07,500 --> 00:35:10,233
Those models,
even in their simplicity,
649
00:35:10,266 --> 00:35:13,400
{\an8}predicted that
with rising greenhouse gases
650
00:35:13,433 --> 00:35:14,733
{\an8}in the atmosphere,
651
00:35:14,766 --> 00:35:17,300
{\an8}we would see dramatic
sea ice loss in the Arctic
652
00:35:17,333 --> 00:35:19,700
{\an1}and the Arctic warming
would be amplified,
653
00:35:19,733 --> 00:35:22,033
{\an1}relative to the globe.
654
00:35:22,066 --> 00:35:24,266
{\an1}NARRATOR: And as measurement
techniques improved,
655
00:35:24,300 --> 00:35:26,133
{\an1}scientists were alarmed
to discover
656
00:35:26,166 --> 00:35:28,000
just how much ice had been lost.
657
00:35:29,100 --> 00:35:33,300
{\an7}The volume has decreased by 75%
658
00:35:33,333 --> 00:35:36,500
{\an8}in only 40 years.
659
00:35:36,533 --> 00:35:40,966
{\an1}It's just a breath-taking
change in a very short time.
660
00:35:44,433 --> 00:35:45,833
{\an1}We call it the New Arctic now
661
00:35:45,866 --> 00:35:48,766
{\an1}because it's so different
from what it used to be.
662
00:35:49,600 --> 00:35:51,900
The ice now is mainly consisting
663
00:35:51,933 --> 00:35:53,500
{\an1}of what we call first-year ice
664
00:35:53,533 --> 00:35:57,666
{\an1}which is just ice that's formed
in that one winter.
665
00:35:57,700 --> 00:36:00,133
{\an1}And most of it doesn't survive
through the summer.
666
00:36:00,166 --> 00:36:01,566
It all melts.
667
00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:05,933
{\an1}NARRATOR: Studies suggest
that around a quarter
668
00:36:05,966 --> 00:36:09,366
{\an1}of global warming is caused
by the loss of this sea ice.
669
00:36:11,033 --> 00:36:13,833
{\an1}And if you factor in
the melting of snow cover
670
00:36:13,866 --> 00:36:15,533
{\an1}on the surrounding land,
671
00:36:15,566 --> 00:36:19,133
{\an1}together they account
for an estimated 40% loss
672
00:36:19,166 --> 00:36:21,200
{\an1}in the planet's reflectivity.
673
00:36:23,033 --> 00:36:25,933
{\an1}MARIKA HOLLAND: The snow cover
over land is very bright
674
00:36:25,966 --> 00:36:27,200
and very reflective.
675
00:36:27,233 --> 00:36:29,566
{\an1}It reflects an enormous amount
of the sunlight
676
00:36:29,600 --> 00:36:33,100
{\an1}away from the surface, just
like the sea ice cover does.
677
00:36:33,133 --> 00:36:35,166
{\an1}And we are seeing reductions
678
00:36:35,200 --> 00:36:38,500
{\an1}in the aerial coverage of snow
over the land,
679
00:36:38,533 --> 00:36:40,533
{\an1}just like we're seeing
reductions
680
00:36:40,566 --> 00:36:43,800
{\an1}in the aerial coverage
of sea ice.
681
00:36:43,833 --> 00:36:46,266
{\an1}NARRATOR: With feedback loops
amplifying the warming,
682
00:36:46,300 --> 00:36:51,266
{\an1}the landscape of the Arctic
will change irrevocably.
683
00:36:51,300 --> 00:36:53,533
MARIKA HOLLAND: So,
our climate model projections
684
00:36:53,566 --> 00:36:57,300
{\an1}suggest that we will lose
the Arctic sea ice cover
685
00:36:57,333 --> 00:37:02,266
{\an1}in the summer months altogether
by the end of this century.
686
00:37:03,500 --> 00:37:07,166
If we continue
to increase greenhouse gases
687
00:37:07,200 --> 00:37:10,266
{\an1}in the atmosphere through
the burning of fossil fuels,
688
00:37:10,300 --> 00:37:12,233
{\an1}we ultimately will get
to a state
689
00:37:12,266 --> 00:37:14,833
where we lose
the winter sea ice as well.
690
00:37:16,400 --> 00:37:18,133
NARRATOR:
A sobering prediction,
691
00:37:18,166 --> 00:37:21,200
considering that ice
has covered the Arctic Ocean
692
00:37:21,233 --> 00:37:24,066
{\an1}for more than two and a half
million years.
693
00:37:26,600 --> 00:37:28,600
And the warming
happening in the Arctic
694
00:37:28,633 --> 00:37:30,266
{\an1}isn't staying in the Arctic.
695
00:37:32,233 --> 00:37:35,066
{\an1}The air there is mixing
into the global atmosphere
696
00:37:35,100 --> 00:37:36,466
elsewhere on Earth
697
00:37:36,500 --> 00:37:39,566
and raising global temperatures.
698
00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:42,000
{\an1}MARIKA HOLLAND: The Arctic
plays a very central role
699
00:37:42,033 --> 00:37:43,366
in Earth's climate.
700
00:37:43,400 --> 00:37:47,533
Even if you just lose
sea ice cover in the Arctic,
701
00:37:47,566 --> 00:37:50,733
the tropics will feel
that enhanced warming.
702
00:37:52,233 --> 00:37:55,033
{\an1}NARRATOR: This means
amplification of problems
703
00:37:55,066 --> 00:37:57,966
the climate crisis
is already causing -
704
00:37:58,000 --> 00:37:59,566
crops suffering,
705
00:37:59,600 --> 00:38:01,700
{\an1}food prices going up...
706
00:38:02,666 --> 00:38:04,633
{\an1}..wet areas becoming wetter...
707
00:38:05,533 --> 00:38:07,500
{\an1}..dry areas becoming drier.
708
00:38:11,466 --> 00:38:15,000
{\an1}And as the climate warms, it
kicks in another feedback loop,
709
00:38:15,033 --> 00:38:19,333
{\an1}set in motion by the melting
of massive glacial ice sheets.
710
00:38:20,366 --> 00:38:22,566
{\an1}In the past 30 years,
the loss of ice
711
00:38:22,600 --> 00:38:25,900
{\an1}on the Greenland ice sheet
has increased six-fold,
712
00:38:25,933 --> 00:38:28,133
{\an1}leading to a rise in sea level.
713
00:38:30,266 --> 00:38:31,666
{\an8}As the ocean rises,
714
00:38:31,700 --> 00:38:35,300
{\an7}the higher, warmer water
melts more land ice,
715
00:38:35,333 --> 00:38:37,200
{\an7}raising sea levels further
716
00:38:37,233 --> 00:38:39,033
{\an7}and melting even more ice
717
00:38:39,066 --> 00:38:40,566
{\an8}in a vicious cycle.
718
00:38:47,333 --> 00:38:48,800
In the South Pole,
719
00:38:48,833 --> 00:38:50,700
{\an1}the increased temperature
is thawing
720
00:38:50,733 --> 00:38:53,133
the miles-thick
Antarctic ice sheets
721
00:38:53,166 --> 00:38:55,033
{\an1}that have been accumulating
on land
722
00:38:55,066 --> 00:38:57,666
{\an1}for over 40 million years.
723
00:38:59,733 --> 00:39:02,300
{\an1}MARIKA HOLLAND: Loss of ice
over the Antarctic continent
724
00:39:02,333 --> 00:39:04,200
{\an1}doesn't have as much
of an albedo feedback
725
00:39:04,233 --> 00:39:05,833
{\an1}because it's so thick,
726
00:39:05,866 --> 00:39:08,966
{\an1}but as that ice enters
the ocean,
727
00:39:09,000 --> 00:39:10,900
{\an1}it causes sea level to rise.
728
00:39:12,500 --> 00:39:14,000
{\an1}NARRATOR: If both Greenland
729
00:39:14,033 --> 00:39:16,833
{\an1}and Antarctica's glacial
ice shelves were to melt,
730
00:39:16,866 --> 00:39:21,333
{\an1}sea levels would potentially
rise by more than 100 feet.
731
00:39:25,000 --> 00:39:27,633
{\an1}This resulting destruction
to coastlines
732
00:39:27,666 --> 00:39:30,300
{\an1}would uproot millions of people
around the world.
733
00:39:34,400 --> 00:39:35,533
It would also mean
734
00:39:35,566 --> 00:39:37,533
{\an1}the ice sheets would reach
a tipping point,
735
00:39:37,566 --> 00:39:40,066
{\an1}taking thousands of years
to recover.
736
00:39:43,966 --> 00:39:47,700
{\an1}So, if we lose an enormous
amount of ice from the land,
737
00:39:47,733 --> 00:39:53,233
{\an1}re-establishing that is
a very long timescale issue.
738
00:39:55,300 --> 00:39:57,433
{\an1}NARRATOR: And if we continue
with business as usual,
739
00:39:57,466 --> 00:40:00,333
{\an1}the warming of the Arctic
will cause the feedback loops
740
00:40:00,366 --> 00:40:03,700
at both poles
to spin out of control.
741
00:40:05,333 --> 00:40:06,900
MARIKA HOLLAND:
The models predict,
742
00:40:06,933 --> 00:40:09,200
if we continue
on the path we're on,
743
00:40:09,233 --> 00:40:13,400
{\an1}that the Arctic will experience
very dramatic changes
744
00:40:13,433 --> 00:40:15,800
{\an1}and that those changes
will reverberate
745
00:40:15,833 --> 00:40:17,400
{\an1}throughout the system,
746
00:40:17,433 --> 00:40:18,900
the human system,
747
00:40:18,933 --> 00:40:20,533
{\an1}the biological system,
748
00:40:20,566 --> 00:40:22,666
{\an1}the socio-economic system.
749
00:40:30,766 --> 00:40:33,300
NARRATOR:
White, puffy cumulus,
750
00:40:33,333 --> 00:40:36,200
{\an1}dark nimbus storm clouds,
751
00:40:36,233 --> 00:40:39,100
{\an1}wispy, thin cirrus clouds.
752
00:40:39,133 --> 00:40:41,266
{\an1}Not just beautiful to look at,
753
00:40:41,300 --> 00:40:44,733
{\an1}clouds play an important role
in Earth's climate.
754
00:40:46,366 --> 00:40:48,166
{\an1}They're formed by water vapor,
755
00:40:48,200 --> 00:40:50,100
{\an1}a naturally occurring gas
created
756
00:40:50,133 --> 00:40:53,300
when water evaporates
from lakes and oceans.
757
00:40:54,366 --> 00:40:57,366
Water vapor is also
a heat-trapping gas.
758
00:40:57,400 --> 00:40:59,233
It's part
of a dangerous feedback loop
759
00:40:59,266 --> 00:41:02,833
{\an1}that's heating the Earth
beyond its natural limits,
760
00:41:02,866 --> 00:41:05,666
{\an1}accounting for about 60%
of all global warming
761
00:41:05,700 --> 00:41:08,933
{\an1}caused by heat-trapping gases
in the atmosphere.
762
00:41:10,533 --> 00:41:13,266
{\an1}As fossil fuel emissions
raise temperatures,
763
00:41:13,300 --> 00:41:16,233
{\an1}the atmosphere absorbs
more water vapor
764
00:41:16,266 --> 00:41:17,800
{\an1}which then traps more heat,
765
00:41:17,833 --> 00:41:19,300
{\an1}warming the planet further
766
00:41:19,333 --> 00:41:21,833
{\an1}in an ever-amplifying loop.
767
00:41:23,200 --> 00:41:25,466
In fact,
the water vapor feedback
768
00:41:25,500 --> 00:41:28,666
{\an1}amplifies global warming
from human activity
769
00:41:28,700 --> 00:41:30,766
{\an1}between two and three times.
770
00:41:33,400 --> 00:41:36,300
{\an1}For the past 30 years, Jennifer
Francis has been studying
771
00:41:36,333 --> 00:41:41,133
{\an1}how increased greenhouses gases
affect the atmosphere.
772
00:41:41,166 --> 00:41:43,933
JENNIFER FRANCIS:
Water vapor is just water
773
00:41:43,966 --> 00:41:46,133
in a gaseous form.
774
00:41:46,166 --> 00:41:47,800
{\an1}When you take a pot of water
775
00:41:47,833 --> 00:41:50,033
{\an1}and put it on your stove
and boil it,
776
00:41:50,066 --> 00:41:52,766
{\an1}you see steam which is still
in the liquid form,
777
00:41:52,800 --> 00:41:54,300
{\an1}but then it disappears
778
00:41:54,333 --> 00:41:57,266
{\an1}and it goes into the atmosphere
and it's completely invisible.
779
00:41:57,300 --> 00:41:59,666
{\an1}So, the same kind of thing
is happening
780
00:41:59,700 --> 00:42:00,966
{\an1}in the climate system
781
00:42:01,000 --> 00:42:04,566
{\an1}where as we warm the air
and we warm the oceans,
782
00:42:04,600 --> 00:42:07,433
{\an1}more evaporation is occurring
from the oceans
783
00:42:07,466 --> 00:42:10,666
{\an1}and putting more water vapor
in the atmosphere.
784
00:42:11,933 --> 00:42:14,066
{\an1}NARRATOR: While some of this
stays in the atmosphere
785
00:42:14,100 --> 00:42:15,966
{\an1}and traps heat in gaseous form,
786
00:42:16,000 --> 00:42:17,933
{\an1}some of it cools and condenses,
787
00:42:17,966 --> 00:42:22,933
{\an1}forming clouds which can both
heat and cool the planet.
788
00:42:22,966 --> 00:42:25,166
We still don't have
good mechanisms,
789
00:42:25,200 --> 00:42:27,133
{\an7}as good as we would like,
790
00:42:27,166 --> 00:42:30,633
{\an7}for cloud feedbacks...
791
00:42:30,666 --> 00:42:32,566
..because clouds are
very complicated.
792
00:42:34,666 --> 00:42:36,733
{\an1}NARRATOR: Clouds can lower
the temperature
793
00:42:36,766 --> 00:42:39,066
{\an1}because their white color
reflects sunlight
794
00:42:39,100 --> 00:42:40,433
back into space,
795
00:42:40,466 --> 00:42:43,200
cooling the Earth
like on a hot, sunny day
796
00:42:43,233 --> 00:42:46,700
{\an1}when clouds offer relief
from the heat.
797
00:42:46,733 --> 00:42:49,366
{\an1}Conversely, clouds
can trap heat below them,
798
00:42:49,400 --> 00:42:51,366
{\an1}heating Earth's surface
799
00:42:51,400 --> 00:42:53,266
{\an1}like when it's warmer
on a cloudy night
800
00:42:53,300 --> 00:42:55,533
than on a clear one.
801
00:42:55,566 --> 00:42:57,500
{\an1}Scientists conclude that,
on balance,
802
00:42:57,533 --> 00:42:59,866
{\an1}clouds raise the temperature.
803
00:43:01,833 --> 00:43:05,600
{\an7}And as the climate warms,
the oceans are also heating up,
804
00:43:05,633 --> 00:43:07,833
{\an7}causing increased evaporation,
805
00:43:07,866 --> 00:43:09,666
{\an7}creating even more water vapor,
806
00:43:09,700 --> 00:43:11,233
{\an8}trapping more heat,
807
00:43:11,266 --> 00:43:13,333
{\an7}leading to more evaporation
808
00:43:13,366 --> 00:43:16,533
{\an8}and becoming
another amplifying loop.
809
00:43:18,866 --> 00:43:21,666
It's this combination
of increased water vapor
810
00:43:21,700 --> 00:43:25,266
{\an1}and the warming of the oceans
that's driving hurricanes.
811
00:43:37,400 --> 00:43:39,000
KERRY EMANUEL:
More than 30 years ago,
812
00:43:39,033 --> 00:43:41,933
we predicted that
global warming would result
813
00:43:41,966 --> 00:43:43,566
{\an1}in more intense storms,
814
00:43:43,600 --> 00:43:45,266
and we're beginning to see that,
815
00:43:45,300 --> 00:43:47,800
{\an8}even in places
like Florida and the Bahamas
816
00:43:47,833 --> 00:43:50,766
{\an8}which are adapted to hurricanes.
817
00:43:50,800 --> 00:43:52,166
{\an7}They're adapted up to a point
818
00:43:52,200 --> 00:43:55,666
{\an1}and when we begin to see
stronger storms like Dorian,
819
00:43:55,700 --> 00:43:58,200
that adaptation
doesn't mean anything.
820
00:44:05,166 --> 00:44:06,833
NARRATOR:
In addition to water vapor,
821
00:44:06,866 --> 00:44:08,666
another atmospheric
feedback loop
822
00:44:08,700 --> 00:44:11,133
{\an1}is creating extreme weather,
823
00:44:11,166 --> 00:44:14,266
this one involving
the jet stream.
824
00:44:14,300 --> 00:44:17,633
{\an1}JENNIFER FRANCIS: The jet
stream is this river of wind
825
00:44:17,666 --> 00:44:20,233
high over our heads,
up where the jets fly,
826
00:44:20,266 --> 00:44:22,866
that encircles
the Northern Hemisphere
827
00:44:22,900 --> 00:44:24,633
and that jet stream
is responsible
828
00:44:24,666 --> 00:44:26,933
for creating
pretty much all the weather
829
00:44:26,966 --> 00:44:29,900
that we experience
in this part of the world.
830
00:44:32,800 --> 00:44:35,700
{\an1}NARRATOR: To illustrate,
imagine a layer of air
831
00:44:35,733 --> 00:44:39,333
{\an1}extending from the warm south
to the cold north.
832
00:44:42,500 --> 00:44:44,200
Warm air expands,
833
00:44:44,233 --> 00:44:47,333
{\an1}so the layer over the south
rises up higher
834
00:44:47,366 --> 00:44:49,166
{\an1}than the air over the north.
835
00:44:52,033 --> 00:44:56,233
{\an1}Because of gravity, the warm
air higher up flows downhill,
836
00:44:56,266 --> 00:44:58,833
{\an1}just like water flows
down a mountain.
837
00:45:00,666 --> 00:45:04,900
{\an1}This downward movement creates
a south-to-north wind.
838
00:45:06,100 --> 00:45:07,933
{\an1}But because the Earth
is spinning,
839
00:45:07,966 --> 00:45:10,833
{\an1}this wind gets turned
to the east
840
00:45:10,866 --> 00:45:14,533
and becomes
a west-to-east flow of wind.
841
00:45:14,566 --> 00:45:16,833
{\an1}That's the jet stream.
842
00:45:16,866 --> 00:45:18,600
The greater
the temperature difference
843
00:45:18,633 --> 00:45:21,200
between the north
and south air masses,
844
00:45:21,233 --> 00:45:24,666
{\an1}the faster and stronger
the jet stream winds blow.
845
00:45:24,700 --> 00:45:27,333
Historically,
Arctic air has been much colder
846
00:45:27,366 --> 00:45:29,000
{\an1}than the air to the south,
847
00:45:29,033 --> 00:45:31,366
{\an1}keeping the jet stream
fairly straight
848
00:45:31,400 --> 00:45:34,966
{\an1}with relatively small
north-south meanders.
849
00:45:35,000 --> 00:45:36,700
{\an1}But with the Arctic warming
850
00:45:36,733 --> 00:45:39,800
{\an1}at two to three times the rate
as the rest of the globe,
851
00:45:39,833 --> 00:45:43,200
{\an1}that temperature differential
has decreased.
852
00:45:43,233 --> 00:45:45,033
This weakens
the jet stream winds,
853
00:45:45,066 --> 00:45:49,900
{\an1}causing them to take larger
swings north and south...
854
00:45:49,933 --> 00:45:52,200
..which, in turn,
impacts the weather.
855
00:45:53,233 --> 00:45:55,300
JENNIFER FRANCIS:
This is the feedback loop.
856
00:45:55,333 --> 00:45:56,966
{\an7}We're warming the Arctic,
857
00:45:57,000 --> 00:45:59,233
{\an7}we're reducing the winds
of the jet stream,
858
00:45:59,266 --> 00:46:02,333
{\an1}we're seeing it take
these bigger north-south swings
859
00:46:02,366 --> 00:46:05,033
which then transfers
even more heat
860
00:46:05,066 --> 00:46:07,500
{\an1}from the south to the north
into the Arctic
861
00:46:07,533 --> 00:46:09,000
{\an1}which makes it even warmer,
862
00:46:09,033 --> 00:46:10,533
{\an1}which weakens the winds more
863
00:46:10,566 --> 00:46:13,166
and it sets up
this vicious cycle.
864
00:46:16,666 --> 00:46:19,800
{\an1}NARRATOR: Recent examples
are the multi-year drought
865
00:46:19,833 --> 00:46:21,200
in the western US
866
00:46:21,233 --> 00:46:23,466
{\an1}and the increase in wildfires.
867
00:46:23,500 --> 00:46:27,366
They're connected
to a larger north-south swing
868
00:46:27,400 --> 00:46:29,066
in the jet stream.
869
00:46:33,266 --> 00:46:35,900
{\an1}We're now living in a world
where extreme weather events
870
00:46:35,933 --> 00:46:38,700
{\an1}like these are the norm,
not the exception.
871
00:46:49,933 --> 00:46:52,266
{\an1}Even if we could staunch
the emissions
872
00:46:52,300 --> 00:46:54,200
{\an1}of greenhouse gases today,
873
00:46:54,233 --> 00:46:56,833
{\an1}these weather patterns
may continue
874
00:46:56,866 --> 00:46:59,266
{\an1}for a long time to come.
875
00:46:59,300 --> 00:47:00,966
JENNIFER FRANCIS:
So, the wet places
876
00:47:01,000 --> 00:47:02,633
are going to tend to get wetter.
877
00:47:02,666 --> 00:47:06,366
On the other hand,
places that are already dry,
878
00:47:06,400 --> 00:47:09,200
{\an1}they're also going to see
more evaporation
879
00:47:09,233 --> 00:47:12,000
because of the air being warmer.
880
00:47:13,566 --> 00:47:17,133
{\an7}Where we are now, it's like
driving in a car in a dense fog
881
00:47:17,166 --> 00:47:19,800
{\an7}and you know there's a cliff
out there somewhere,
882
00:47:19,833 --> 00:47:21,266
{\an1}but you don't know where.
883
00:47:21,300 --> 00:47:22,809
{\an1}Do you want to be going
60 miles an hour
884
00:47:22,833 --> 00:47:24,833
{\an1}or should you be going
about ten miles an hour?
885
00:47:28,333 --> 00:47:30,066
NARRATOR:
Today, we have a choice.
886
00:47:30,100 --> 00:47:32,733
If we take our foot
off the accelerator,
887
00:47:32,766 --> 00:47:35,266
we can reverse
the feedback loops
888
00:47:35,300 --> 00:47:37,266
{\an1}and begin to cool the planet.
889
00:47:45,900 --> 00:47:49,300
If we don't deal with
this climate change issue...
890
00:47:50,200 --> 00:47:52,400
..we're going to be
in deep trouble.
891
00:47:55,833 --> 00:47:59,200
{\an1}KERRY EMANUEL: The emission of
greenhouse gases is an example
892
00:47:59,233 --> 00:48:01,300
of a market failure,
893
00:48:01,333 --> 00:48:04,866
{\an1}one business enterprise
passing on the real cost
894
00:48:04,900 --> 00:48:09,266
{\an1}of doing business to people who
aren't party to that business,
895
00:48:09,300 --> 00:48:11,533
that is, most of the rest of us.
896
00:48:15,500 --> 00:48:18,266
{\an1}NARRATOR: George Woodwell
was an early pioneer,
897
00:48:18,300 --> 00:48:20,733
{\an1}warning about fossil fuel use
898
00:48:20,766 --> 00:48:24,800
{\an1}setting off warming feedback
loops five decades ago.
899
00:48:24,833 --> 00:48:27,300
He's convinced the solution lies
900
00:48:27,333 --> 00:48:30,600
{\an1}with nature's own ability
to cool the planet.
901
00:48:32,933 --> 00:48:37,500
GEORGE WOODWELL:
We can store carbon in life.
902
00:48:37,533 --> 00:48:40,933
{\an1}If we want to be optimistic,
we have to be very progressive
903
00:48:40,966 --> 00:48:45,333
in our transition
away from fossil fuels
904
00:48:45,366 --> 00:48:48,233
{\an1}and into a new green world.
905
00:49:06,866 --> 00:49:10,233
{\an1}NARRATOR: With every country
contributing to the problem,
906
00:49:10,266 --> 00:49:13,533
{\an1}each now needs to be
part of the solution.
907
00:49:13,566 --> 00:49:16,633
{\an1}GEORGE WOODWELL: And that
requires managing the world
908
00:49:16,666 --> 00:49:20,933
{\an1}in such a way that we do not
exploit carbon compounds
909
00:49:20,966 --> 00:49:23,533
and dump the waste
into the atmosphere.
910
00:49:24,766 --> 00:49:26,566
NARRATOR:
In every sector of the economy,
911
00:49:26,600 --> 00:49:28,300
{\an1}we have the technology
and knowledge
912
00:49:28,333 --> 00:49:30,266
to move
towards sources of energy
913
00:49:30,300 --> 00:49:33,400
that do not produce
heat-trapping gases.
914
00:49:33,433 --> 00:49:35,433
{\an1}What we need is the will.
915
00:49:38,166 --> 00:49:40,000
KERRY EMANUEL:
I'm encouraged by the fact
916
00:49:40,033 --> 00:49:43,066
that other countries
have decarbonized
917
00:49:43,100 --> 00:49:47,100
{\an1}their electricity sector
in ten to twelve years,
918
00:49:47,133 --> 00:49:49,133
{\an1}so I know we can do it
919
00:49:49,166 --> 00:49:50,666
{\an1}and those countries that did it
920
00:49:50,700 --> 00:49:53,000
{\an1}grew their economies rapidly
while doing it.
921
00:49:53,033 --> 00:49:57,633
But we have to put
the incentives in place.
922
00:49:57,666 --> 00:49:58,833
(CHANTING)
923
00:49:58,866 --> 00:50:01,700
{\an1}The most important thing
citizens can do
924
00:50:01,733 --> 00:50:03,766
{\an1}is to educate themselves
on this issue
925
00:50:03,800 --> 00:50:07,966
{\an1}and vote for politicians
who take this problem seriously
926
00:50:08,000 --> 00:50:10,700
and have good ideas
for how to solve it.
927
00:50:11,766 --> 00:50:14,133
{\an1}SUE NATALI: Communicating
with our policy-makers
928
00:50:14,166 --> 00:50:15,500
{\an1}that this is important to us,
929
00:50:15,533 --> 00:50:17,233
{\an1}that this is impacting
each one of us,
930
00:50:17,266 --> 00:50:18,566
{\an1}that this is important
931
00:50:18,600 --> 00:50:21,533
for human health,
for human well-being,
932
00:50:21,566 --> 00:50:25,533
{\an7}is the most important action
that each one of us can take.
933
00:50:25,566 --> 00:50:28,566
{\an1}PHILIP DUFFY: To successfully
address climate change requires
934
00:50:28,600 --> 00:50:31,166
{\an1}an unprecedented level
of societal cooperation,
935
00:50:31,200 --> 00:50:34,633
{\an7}cooperation across nations,
cooperation within nations,
936
00:50:34,666 --> 00:50:36,766
{\an7}across multiple sectors.
937
00:50:36,800 --> 00:50:38,833
NARRATOR:
Today, we have a choice.
938
00:50:38,866 --> 00:50:42,100
We can continue
with business as usual
939
00:50:42,133 --> 00:50:45,600
{\an1}and let these warming feedback
loops spin out of control
940
00:50:45,633 --> 00:50:48,133
or we can choose
another way of living
941
00:50:48,166 --> 00:50:52,166
{\an1}and implement policies that
support a sustainable future,
942
00:50:52,200 --> 00:50:53,300
but we need leaders
943
00:50:53,333 --> 00:50:56,100
{\an1}who understand the urgency
of getting it done
944
00:50:56,133 --> 00:51:00,200
{\an1}and an energized public
to advocate for change.
945
00:51:00,233 --> 00:51:02,366
{\an7}(GRETA THUNBERG SPEAKING)
946
00:51:14,766 --> 00:51:17,333
{\an8}We, the people.
947
00:51:18,366 --> 00:51:19,500
{\an8}Thank you.
948
00:51:47,566 --> 00:51:49,600
Most people I know, I encounter,
949
00:51:49,633 --> 00:51:55,333
{\an1}haven't even heard of feedback
loops or tipping points,
950
00:51:55,366 --> 00:51:57,500
{\an1}chain reactions and so on.
951
00:51:58,433 --> 00:51:59,500
{\an1}But they are so crucial
952
00:51:59,533 --> 00:52:02,400
to understanding
how the world works.
953
00:52:02,433 --> 00:52:06,733
We have... we have
such a lack of respect
954
00:52:06,766 --> 00:52:08,800
for nature
and for the environment
955
00:52:08,833 --> 00:52:12,000
{\an1}that we just think that things
will work out in the end.
956
00:52:12,033 --> 00:52:14,166
We cannot solve
the climate emergency
957
00:52:14,200 --> 00:52:17,566
{\an1}without taking these feedback
loops into account
958
00:52:17,600 --> 00:52:19,933
and without really
understanding them,
959
00:52:19,966 --> 00:52:22,000
{\an1}so that is a crucial step.79586
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