All language subtitles for Lesson 4 - Bond Megatrades EN

Welcome back folks, July,
2017, ICT mentorship.

This is the final lesson for July's
content mega trades in the bond market.

Alright.

And when we go into the bottom.

We're going to be looking at much
like everything else we've looked

at for this month's content.

We're looking for seasonal tendencies
and seasonal tendencies are very

specific with the bond market because
it's a very re pleading phenomenon

that takes place every year.

And this is the seasonal tendency
for the bonds of 30 or true.

And obviously there's generally some
measure of weakness starting in the

beginning of the year and trades down
into some of the seasonal low that takes

place between the may and June months.

So sometime during may and or June
every year, there's a seasonal load

of forms generally again, between.

The months of may and June.

So this is the number one setup that
I want you to be looking for every

year now, before I state anything
further than I already have, just

because we have a may, June seasonal
tendency low that historically can be

seen doesn't mean every single year
is going to create a seasonal low for

the bond market in may and or in June.

It just means that we
have to be looking for.

This to potentially be there.

So if there's going to be a decision
based on whether you're going to be

looking for a big move, the bond market,
whether they're shorting or going long,

I think if you do the analysis and
study over historical prices, You'll

see that may June traditionally has
it very high odds of making a low.

That is not a guarantee.

It's not a panacea.

It'd be all end all idea.

It's not 100%.

So if you go in forcing it, chances
are you're going to lose money on it.

Okay.

So I want you to focus primarily on the
may June time period, every single year.

For the formation of a
low in the bond market.

Now you can anticipate weakness
at the beginning of the year down

into this may June time period.

That's one way you can look
for age turning scenario.

Okay.

Or you can simply sit on your hands
and wait until may in June of every

year and anticipate the technicals
to get in line with the fundamentals,

which shows this statistically proven.

There's more chance of a seasonal low
forming in the spring, early summer

in the bond market than any other
time of the year later in a year.

There's the September, October,
November rallies that take place.

You can see there's two significant
enemy in term Loza form, and they're

generally short term in nature.

So you can be a short term swing
trader or just a short term trader.

And into the paid bullishness
in those time periods.

But the primary one I want you to
focus on for mega trades is the

may June time period for bonds.

Okay.

We've mentioned that multiple
times throughout this mentorship,

but the interest rate SMT is
going to be that little silver

bullet and you're looking for.

Qualifying and confirming that the mega
trade itself is actually unfolding.

Now the treasury bond market
routinely a trending market.

Historically, you can see that over
long periods of time, bonds typically

will move in a trending environment.

Now that doesn't mean they
won't go into consolidations.

It just generally means that
as a characteristic for this.

It's historically and traditionally
a good trending market.

It tends to stay in a
longterm trend for a while.

Now when seeking mega trades
in bonds, it's crucial to refer

to the five year 10 year notes
comparably with 30 year bond market.

Now this application of relative strength
analysis will aid in timing with a

smart money, actually steps in and buys
the bond market in large magnitude.

It's one thing to anticipate the seasonal.

In may and June.

And that's enough to give you a
statistical edge edge is not 100%.

It just means that you have a
statistical edge that more times than

not, there's usually a seasonal low
for me, between may and June over the

calendar year for the bond market.

Now it mean that it goes
up the rest of the year.

No, it just means that you have eight
potential to see a significant rally

to occur from the may, June lows.

That can't be qualified until you see
an SMT divergence across the five year,

the 10 year and the 30 year bond market.

So what does it look like?

Well, when you look for a
mega trade, okay, I'm going to

simplify it in similar fashion.

You've seen so far for the
previous three lessons.

The first thing you were looking
for is a seasonal tendency that

forms in late spring, early summer,
which is the May-June bond low.

The next stage is you're going to be
looking for identifying institutional

order flow, and you're gonna be waiting
for a hard timeframe institutional PD.

Right now, what you're waiting
for is you're going to anticipate

bullishness on a seasonal tenant.

Between may and June identify
institutional order flow.

You meet waiting for signs to indicate
that on a hard timeframe, that the market

should be looking for higher prices.

And when the market goes into
a discount market, now you have

a stage that's properly set.

Now you're gonna be performing
a daily scan for the interest

rate SMT divergence between the
five-year, the tenure and a third.

Once you get an entry based on
institutional order flow and entry

techniques that we've covered in other
parts of this mentorship, and that are

going to be specifically spelled out in
your August content PDF top-down analysis,

you'll be anticipating a move or duration
that takes us into the fall months.

So the fall.

That's generally what you're aiming for.

It does not mean that the bond
market's going to rally that long.

It just may rally a month or two,
but generally we're waiting for

the September, October time period
to anticipate some measure of

intermediate term highs to the form.

After that short-term trading begins
from a characteristic standpoint

for the bonds and each year.

You want to be doing this as a routine,
but the main thing is, is you do

not want to overtrade the bonds you
want to be looking for this may June

time period, to begin the trend over
the next several calendar months.

If you do this, if you sit on your hands
and you wait for this to come to fruition,

you number one will develop discipline.

You'll have a clear objective approach
about how the trade, the bonds and.

It's as you'll see, very
consistent with giving a long-term.

Swain traders model a long-term
position traders model.

And if you trade in a direction
that this method gives you, you can

also do day trades and one shot,
one kills in the direction as well.

So it gives you the basis for trading
the bond market entirely for all aspects

of short-term day trading scalping.

You swing trading and position trading.

You can't ask for anything more.

This is the reason why I see that for
last bonds are a pet market of mine

that I have very close, um, love for
basically, uh, like I said, if I was

forced out of Forex, if Forex just
became untradeable, I could write back

to the bond market and I'm confident
that I would do very well with it.

Do I want to go back to the bond market?

No, I don't because I'm passionate about
the foreign exchange market, because

I think it's loaded with manipulation.

So therefore I know what
there's manipulations are.

If it becomes impossible for me,
I will have no problem leaving the

asset class of the foreign exchange
and going back to trading commodity

futures in the bond market and have
absolutely zero fear whether or not I'm

going to be able to find consistency.

By itself.

That's a huge vote of confidence
in myself as a trader.

You may not have that, but you will
develop it over time, especially if

you're looking for big moves like this,
because if we get these big moves that

start between may and June, and they
go for long durations over several

months, what that will do is it will
fuel the other markets to allow them

to go into trending environments.

If it does not come to fruition in may and
June, it doesn't create a low that will

also spell other things that we'll talk
about in August, the PDF notes and content

that tells you what you should be doing.

But primarily may June time period.

We want to be anticipating a low
with forming in the bond market

and therefore a rally in the coming
months after those may, June.

Okay.

We're looking at an example here of
the three specific bond and notes

that you have to be looking at.

The top is the five-year treasury note.

The middle chart is the 10 year
treasury note and the lowest is

the 30 year treasury bond market.

So when were you looking at price?

Okay.

I want you to learn to train your own.

To anticipate specific turning points.

Now there's two turning points
on here that I really want

to draw your attention to.

The first is the most furthest
to the left of the chart.

There's a swing high retracement
and then another swing high forming.

This is seen on all three of the charts.

The upper most five-year treasury has
a higher swing high or high for me.

And then the 10 year has
a lower high forming.

And then obviously the third year
has a lower high for me as well.

This confirms that down, move
trading down into the load

it's seen on all three charts.

That low is what I want
to draw your attention to.

So while we see the divergence at
the highs, which led to that deep

retracement, how can we see that low?

And why did it have such a risk.

Off that level.

Well, we're going to take a look at
that in greater detail, but right now

we're focusing primarily right there.

So now looking at the five-year at the
top, you can see that the five-year

made a lower, low, the tenure in the
middle made a higher, low, and the

third year made almost equal lows.

So there's a divergence or
interest rate SMT divergence.

And it's this divergence right here.

The 10 year failed to make a lower low
while the other two made either an attempt

to go lower or equal low the three.

Bond markets or treasury markets here.

They have to move in
concert with one another.

If they diverged and it just takes
one that is your early warning

sign because the smart money does
such a large volume of trading.

When they step in and start buying,
they're going to spread their risk over.

The short-term to immediate term in the
long-term because of that and because

of their sheer volume and their order
placement, there's going to be a crack

in the correlation amongst the short
term enemy term and the long-term yields

short-term yield is the five-year enemy.

It term yield is the 10 year and
the third year is the longterm.

We're trading the 30 year bond or the 30
year yield, but we're using the term and

intermediate term and the long-term yield
in comparison to see when that smart money

elephant presses its foot down in the mud.

This is what it looks like.

So we're going to use this example here,
working from the lower timeframe out to

a higher timeframe to identify what the
smart money footprint looks like and

how you can use it to frame mega tree.

Okay folks, this is the five-year
treasury note, and I want you

to see that lower, low here.

Okay.

And we're going to look at the 10 year.

You can see that divergence right there,
and we're looking at the 30 year treasury.

You can see that's relatively equal.

Okay.

So the five year.

What lower the 10 year diverged and
the 30 year was basically unchanged

or equal, low that in itself is SMT.

This is the crack in the correlation
that would be normally expected

in the bond and treasury markets.

So if five-year ten-year treasury
notes and 30 year bond market, they

should be moving in tandem, but
because they're not moving in tandem.

This draws special attention to what may
be a smart money accumulation pattern.

So now what we'll do is we're going
to go out to a daily time period.

Okay.

And this is actually just looking
at the month of June of 2008.

And we're going to look at 2008,
2009, all the way up to 2017.

Okay.

Here's the five year of
the 2008 September con.

As you can see the may June time
period, we're looking for a seasonal

low to form and the low forms in June.

No, I zoomed in on an intraday
chart on the five-year ten-year

and 30 year rate at this low.

That's what we were just looking
at in the previous charts.

This is the tenure at
the same time period.

And there's the 30 year treasury bond.

Again, the may June time
period, creating a seasonal.

The SMT divergence occurs down here.

We could be a buyer
around one, 12 and a half.

Let's just call it one 12 and a half.

If that's the case, that would be 1,
2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12.

Thousand dollars per contract
of a move from the June seasonal

tendency, just getting into
September at the contract expiration.

This is a tender delivery contract.

Now we're going to look at the December
contracts throughout the rest of the

remainder of this presentation, but I
wanted to show you that in 2008, the

seasonal tenancy was in fact there.

Okay.

And we also saw.

That the September influenced
it was expected for short-term

trading also saw a rally as well.

We also see in the early portion
of the year, there's a decline.

It took place trading down into
that may June time period for

the seasonal tenants to kick in.

Now, I don't know about you, but $12,000
per contract is a rather significant

return in a short order of time.

One month, two months,
three months of time.

To make $12,000 per contract.

That is a mega trade.

That's what it looks
like in the bond market.

So now we're going to do is we're going
to take a look at the, the livery contract

month of December, 2008, and then we'll
start working out from 2008 to 2017.

Okay.

Now we can see the delivery contract
of 2008, the December contract.

This is the five-year.

As you can see, we have basically
equal or slightly higher, low

here while in consolidation.

And we're in that September, October
time period, when seasonally we

expect to see rallies occurs.

Well, I'm gonna look
at the tenure you see.

Now here the 10 year makes
a lower low, see that.

So we have a lower, low formed in the 10
year comparatively with the five-year.

That was unable to make a lower
low at the same time, the 30 year

treasury bond was making a lower low.

So we have that September, October
time period going into November and

we have a very impressive rally.

We're going to assume that we
could have taken a long at one 14.

This is all hindsight, and this
is completely hypothetical.

But in the grand scheme of
things, let's say it's one 14.

There was an entry that's 2, 4, 6,
8, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18 20 22, 24.

26, 20 $8,000 per contract going long on
a 30 year treasury bond with a seasonal

tendency and expecting higher prices and
using the index SMT, divergence, huge,

huge, huge moves in the bond market here.

What I want you to believe is that.

Yes, these moves are possible, but not
all of them will be this extrapolated.

This is a huge, huge move, but
the market had moved down into a

discount array down here as well.

Price moved away instead of breaking
all the premium arrays and started

rallying for a higher timeframe.

Objective.

Now, if we look at a higher
timeframe, And we'll do that.

Now,

here, we can see that one 14
level was inside of a bullish or

a block, and it also came down and
took out short-term cell stops.

And this is a weekly chart prior to
that extrapolate and move on the upside.

Here's the range, the high and the
low we had moved down into a discount

array, ran stops or shorter blocks.

Boom, I suppose the price rally thousand
and nine set up here may June time period.

You'd see the five-year going into June.

Okay.

You see a higher, low forming here.

So this old low here did not
get broken with this low and

on the tenure right away.

We can see it made a
lower low right there.

And.

The bond market made a lower low,
you know, may June time period.

We could be a buyer in the bond market.

Again, we're going to
be using that 14 level.

That one 14 level as a potential
entry returned to the, or

block here last down, close.

The high on this is 1 13 21.

And this low here.

Came in at 1 13 22.

So we're going to just say that
it's one 14 that we got in it.

You sort a nice big round figure one
14 in price rallies, up to 1, 2, 3,

4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and a half or eight and
a half thousand dollars per contract.

Now this is the September contract and
we're going to look at how much it rolled.

If we moved into the December con.

Out of this out of the September
contract and rolled into December

delivery to get more of a move.

So we're going to reference basically
the beginning of September in the

contract price movement in December's
contract, which we'll see now.

okay.

That's September here and price rallies.

Another,

we'll say a one.

To 3000 and a half, three, another
$3,000 more of a price move by

rolling from September his contract
ended December taking the greatest

advantage of the seasonal trends.

Also noticed that we have that September
rally, October, November time period,

where we get that short-term traders idea
for them buying the bonds in relationship

to our seasonal tendency, buying down
in here and getting out here, not even

getting the highest high and the lowest
low that $3,004,000 worth of price action.

And here as well.

So from assuming that in at 18 and a
half, each time, 1000, two thousand three

thousand four thousand five thousand one
thousand, two thousand three thousand four

thousand five thousand, nice moose eat
each one of these wouldn't be considered

a mega trade, but the, again, may June
time period, when we would look to go.

That would be a mega trade.

So the movement all the way up to
1 23 16, based on the origin of the

June low, and again, the five-year
failed to make a lower low 10 year

and 30 year did go lower in June.

And to seal a seasonal tendency
unfolded beautifully in 2009.

Okay.

Here we have the.

Five-year treasury note on September,
2010 and our may June time period, we

can see that the market had already
started a trending environment

and in the tenure, we can see the same
thing occurring here may June time period.

We're going to take a look at that in
greater detail and intraday and on the

30 year treasury note or treasury bonds.

Again, market's already
in trending environment.

So we're going to do is we're going to
look at during this consolidation in here.

Okay.

We're gonna look about mid may to
mid June on an intraday basis, and

we'll see the SMT divergence that.

Okay here.

We're looking at a five-year and zoomed
in from May 12th, 2010 to June 15th, 2010.

And you can do this by having
the settings like this.

You go to line intraday, show
about a month worth of data to our

chart and put the data field in
which you want to scan through.

Okay.

And this is what you
come up with by plotting.

And you can see that we
have may going into June.

We have this slightly higher, low here.

And then the 10 year we have that
lower, low, so right away have

divergence five years failing
to go lower, like the 10 year.

And on the third year, we
have that lower, low as well.

Okay.

In a candlestick.

You can see how that worked out
in terms of institutional order

flow, the fair value gap in
here, price trades down into it.

There's your discount array.

It's in a discount market high to low.

Why not down here, Michael?

You could have used, it could have
used that, that range, but we had a

dynamic price movement here and diamond
dynamic price movement here as well.

We have just recently taken this one out.

So what's the next downside
discount rate it's going to be.

And this is where the diversions occurred.

So we're blending the two lower,
low in the 30 year, but it goes to

a discount array at the same time.

It's 10 year makes that lower,
low, but the five-year doesn't.

So that's where your 2010 mega
trade entry pattern formed.

Let's go back out to the bond market and
we'll go through the daily timeframe.

Okay.

Here's the daily timeframe for the
September, 2010 delivery contract.

And we're going to say at 1 22 and
a half was our entry with the bond

or interest rate SMT divergence.

So at 1 22 and a half.

Right in here.

It's 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 6, 7, 8,
9, 10, 11, 12, 13, $14,000.

Per contract and that's just the
movement up into prior to September.

Um, again, we looked for September,
October time period to give us

our seasonal high or before the
market starts going into swing

traders model or short-term trading.

Let's look at the December
contract of 2010 prices.

Dips down and it makes
one more attempt to rally.

Doesn't really trade higher
than the previous high does it.

But look what happens.

We have the October high and the
market eventually trades lower.

So do the seasonal tendency
and make a trade unfold there?

Absolutely.

It did.

That's a lot of money for one set up that
you wait for every year and try to milk

it to now we're gonna take a look at 2011.

Okay.

Here is the September contract for
five-year treasury notes, 2011.

And we're already in the intraday charts.

We're going to zoom
out from this point on.

So say, see how the seasonal tendency
can be sometimes a little bit late.

And also, I want to show you a
Trinity to use relative strength

a little bit differently.

That way you can see that
it's not just looking.

Uh, short-term low against
the non short term low.

You can sometimes have to trade through a
short-term low to get the measurement and

I'll show you what that means right now.

We have this low here, this low
here, and another lower low.

We see that.

So we have a low, lower, low, and a lower
low, so we have low, lower, low, lower.

Prior to the rally and
that's on the five-year.

Now we look at the tenure, we
have that same similar thing here.

We have a low, a lower,
low, and a lower low.

Okay.

So again, we have the same dynamic
five-year and ten-year earn agreement.

Now let's take a look at the third year.

We have a low, a lower,
low, a lower, low again.

No, we have a higher, low, so.

By using three points of
reference makes a swing low.

We have a swing low here, here, here, Lois
in the middle higher, low to the left,

higher, low to the right comparatively.

We see that not occurring in
the tenure and we don't see

it occurring in the five-year.

Okay.

So this is a footprint.

It's the same smart money accumulation
pattern by nature, or by description,

the characteristic of seeing when
Smartline places, their foot in the

marketplace, but it's a different
interpretation, but it's the same result.

So while we can look at these
two loads here and here, that

is enough to give the diverse.

Okay.

So between the five-year making
that lower, low here, the ten-year

making that lower low here,

the higher, low in the 30 year, it
starts off by seeing and anticipating

that low, that lower, low, and as market
starts dropping down, we're going to

be watching the sea it's a 10 year
and a five-year and a 30 year do it.

We don't see it there.

Okay.

So the divergence occurred just a little
bit late in terms of seasonal timing,

but the anticipation is still there
and we start scanning for each day.

Okay.

Now we're going to go out in all
these timeframes, back out to a

daily, and we can see that the
signal itself formed on July.

Yeah, July 8th, 2011.

Okay.

So we can see.

Okay.

Now we can see the 30 year treasury bond.

And this is the 8th of July in 2011
near the low end of this range.

I'm sorry, this low here
stops have been taken.

The range is from here to here.

We're still in a discount price
trades down into, or block here.

Rallies away.

We're going to assume that for
hindsight and hypothetical speaking,

um, we got in at 1 24, so that
would be 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16,

18, $19,000 per contract of price
movement using the September delivery.

And we're going to go to, let me
show you rolling quick, what the

ten-year looked like at the same time.

Okay.

Nothing's standing out obvious there
and there as well for the five-year,

but for the December contract, if
we roll over, when September expires

the movement from September on, we
can see price moves just a little

bit and then creates a short term.

Decline into a September,
October retracement, then another

rally up going into November.

So the market goes into a short
term traders, uh, characteristic,

again, as outlined in the
beginning of this teaching.

So the September, October time
period, we're still looking for

that seasonal high each year, 2011.

Does it again?

So now we're gonna take
a look at the 2002.

Okay.

Now we have 2012 opportunity
here may, June time period.

And it's the five-year treasury note.

We have a lower low here on
the five here going into the

June from may to June 10 year.

We don't see that we see a
higher, low, and the bond market.

We'll see a higher, low as well.

So by itself, we won't need to
go down to a lower timeframe.

We'll just say we went in at 1 48.

So at 1 48 to 1 49 is 1000,
two thousand three thousand

four thousand five thousand.

So buying in here, up to here, we
have about $5,000 worth of price

movement, but notice what has.

Price.

Doesn't do very much of a move
beyond this premium array.

So we traded above an old high,
but then it failed the turtle

soup and it went and lower.

So it didn't pay out a whole lot.

Even if we go to the December contract,
you can see that in 2012, the bond market

did not give us a nice extrapolated move.

It only moved about $5,000 per
contract and then went lower.

Okay.

And then went into a range-bound
consolidation, still giving us an

opportunity to rally in September and
October to catch the short term swings.

But we didn't see that continuation
of that theme of may June's low into

higher September, October time period.

It was actually a lower September,
October time period, but still each year,

we're seeing that September, October
time period for a rally seasonally and

they're trading off of discount or.

But this month, or this year, rather
2012, we don't see the evidence or

the painting out of that mega trade.

Now this is the first one in the years
that we've started looking at, but

so far it's been pretty consistent.

And so now we're gonna
take a look at 2013.

Okay.

Now we're looking at the 2013.

This is a five-year treasury note, and
we're looking at may June time periods.

So we have a low.

Maybe this seasonal times,
he's coming in a little late.

They have a lower, low going into
July, just like the previous year.

We saw a little bit of
lateness coming in the tenure.

We see that same lower level.

Form.

And in the third year, the same
lower, low bonds are in a downtrend.

And guess what?

There's absolutely zero mega
trade performing for this,

for our seasonal tendency.

So we have back-to-back years, 2012,
2013, not providing our bullish

seasonal tendency for a rally.

And we don't see that seasonal pop
from may, June leading into October.

September, October time period, as a
seasonal high, let's take a look at what

the September contract look like here.

In contrast to the December contract,
you can see that the September

and October time period did create
our buying opportunities that

we look for, but then they could
trade was just simply not there.

We have about the
$9,008,000 worth of a price.

Move on this.

We're just going to say that
2012 in 2013 were done years.

So now I take a look at 2014.

Okay.

Here we have 2014.

This is the five-year treasury note
and here's our may June time period.

Okay.

And we have a low, lower, low, then
we have the market creating a little

bit of a rally up and in the 10.

We can see that we made relatively
equal lows in the middle of June.

Let's go back to the five-year.

You can see that we went lower here,
fail to go lower in the 10 year.

And the 30 year failed to go lower.

So we have a divergence there,
but notice we have a nice way down

taking out these equal lows in July.

They did a stop run.

Now I mentioned before how bonds
typically are not plagued with a great

deal of manipulation, but this is
one of those instances where it does

occur, but it creates another SMT
divergence between the interest rates.

So the 30 year makes a
lower low here in July.

Does not make that lower,
low in July in the 10 year.

And it doesn't create that lower,
low in to late end of July here.

But all we need is a signal for
the bond market, the 30 year

treasury and that's in here.

So we can see this as a run on cell stops.

And we'll say that we were
able to get in at 1 35.

So that would be.

1 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, almost seven,
$7,000 worth of a price moot.

And that's using the September contract

and December contract
sees it go even further.

Okay.

We have nice run-up in October.

So we have our September and then
our October, November rally as well.

So again, we had two back-to-back
dead years and then came right back

in with a barn burner year of big,
big movement in the bond market.

So now we're gonna take
a look at the 2015 year.

Okay.

We have 2015, this is the five-year
treasury note, or may June time period.

Okay.

And we have a low, the higher, low, and
a higher low in here, but look closely.

We have a higher, low here towards
the end of June on the year we have

that lower, low, so right away, we
have SMT divergence and we have a

lower, low, and CRA creates a lower
low for the month in the third year.

Okay.

And price starts to rally from there.

We're going to say that we
were able to get in at 1 49.

Again, we're not trying to
pick the best price of entry.

So 1 49 to 1 52, 3 4 5 6 7 8, 9,
10, 11, 12, 13, $14,000 again, price

rally, but it creates a short high in.

Feeding back to a premium array bear order
block then falls off rather aggressively.

Okay.

So we, we rebalance all price
delivery on the downside here

with buy-side delivery here.

Let's see what the December
contract shown if there was any more

continuation, but right away, it's
already a mega trade by itself in

terms of price magnitude, how much it
moved in for the December contract.

It created again that September,
October, November rallies, but nothing

in terms of extrapolation on the upside.

So again, we have another year where the
mega trade unfolds for the bond market.

So now we're gonna take a look at 2016.

Okay.

Could see the 2016 five-year treasury
note for the September delivery contract.

Okay.

Our may June time period here, we
have a lower, low, and a series

of lower lows in here going into.

We have a higher, low at the end
of may going into June and we

have the failure to make a lower
low, even in this series of lows.

So right away, we have SMT
divergence, and we have a higher,

low comparably with the bond market.

So we're going to say we had a
1 63 entry and not picking the

lowest or best scenario on 63.

1 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9,
10, 11, 12, 13, $14,000.

Again, every full handle is $1,000 per
contract and that in itself is a nice

mega trade, big, huge extrapolated move.

And, but again, it dies
out in July and goes lower.

Let's see what happens.

Yeah.

December, is there any follow through
in December, 2016 is contract.

So we've made the high in July
and then went lower and nothing

shown as a rally for September,
October, November time period.

In fact, it was in bear country.

So it's still panned out for 2016
in terms of mega trade payout.

But this doesn't have that September,
October length of time for higher.

And then we're gonna take a look at 2017.

Okay.

We're in 2017, we're looking at the
five-year treasury note and this

is September delivery contract.

And I want to take a look
at the low here in April.

Okay.

I know we're looking at may
June time period, but I want

you to look at this right here.

There's low and a higher,
low formed in may.

And then it rallies up as the
five five-year treasury note.

We have a higher level.

Formed here on the tenure,
but look what we have here.

We have a lower, low on the bond market.

So the 30 year treasury note or
a treasury bond has a lower low.

So the SMT diversions is there.

The five-year and ten-year
showed a willingness to.

Not go lower during our seasonal
time period, may June time period.

So we're going to say we got in at one 50.

So one 50 is our entry.

So 1000, two thousand three
thousand four thousand five, six,

$7,000 worth of price movement.

And.

We have yet to see obviously the
rest of this year, but $7,000 payout.

I wouldn't exactly call that a mega
trade, but nothing wrong with it.

And seasonal tendencies still
implying you further prices.

And we'll see if the bond market
has a willingness to go higher and

trade back through the 1 57 level
and we'll see the rest of the year.

If it pans out, I don't believe I
have a crystal ball to tell you if

it's going to do it here or not, but
it's one to watch for the rest of.

I'll let you determine what there's
$7,000 per contract as a mega trade.

Personally, I don't believe it is.

I like to see, I think, especially
for the bomber, I have to see

about $10,000 or more, um, to
basically qualify as a mega trade.

Um, is it a matter of importance if you
make $7,000 versus $14,000, obviously

everyone would raise your hand.

Say I want the $14,000.

Uh, but I'd like to see $10,000 or more.

For the annual move that takes
place in the bomb market to

really qualify as a mega trade.

Anything less than that, it's
just a really good trade,

but not to make a trade.

So hopefully you found this teaching
insightful that gives you the, the

basis for, uh, finding the big move
that takes place in the bomb market.

Don't stop here, go back and
look at earlier years than this.

And again, all you're doing is
changing all the information down here.

Okay.

And using the intraday chart,
showing one month's worth of data.

And just pick a time between when the
low makes its formation and you'll

see, the divergence is always there.

It's never missing and you can clearly
see the footprint at smart money.

Lee's when they go in
and buying aggressively.

And the magnitude of their orders causes
that diversion to occur across the

yields of five year, 10 year and 30 year.

And until next time I wish
you good luck and goodbye.