All language subtitles for Lesson 1 - Seasonals _ Monthly Swings EN

Okay folks.

Welcome back.

We're in the final week of June, 2000
seventeens, ICT mentorship content, this

week's lessons are gonna be focusing
on the ICT stock trading, which is

less than one seasonals and monthly.

Okay folks, Dow Jones, industrial
seasonal tendency, and this

is credited to more research.

Steve Moore has the absolute best
seasonal tendencies that are made

available for active traders.

And I'm looking at the
overall directional seasonal.

For just the Dow Jones industrial average.

Now you can go crazy and try to look
at the NASDAQ and the S and P 500.

But the simplest thing for me to do was to
simply look at the Dow Jones industrial.

Now it's a small sample size of
30 stocks, 30 blue chip companies,

some of the biggest companies
in north American continent.

So they're publicly traded.

And if they're doing very well,
generally, the S and P so they'll be

doing very well and NASDAQ while it's
heavy in tech, it can still be very

good a barometer in terms of what the
stock market as a whole should be doing.

Now, personally, I believe that the
seasonal tendency is very closely

mirrored to that of the S and P 500.

For S and P 500, I think is
a more accurate depiction of

what the stock market is doing.

So we'll always refer to this general
basic generic CNL tendency is implying,

but we'll be using it with the S and P
500 also in later lessons that wasn't

going to filter out the strengths or
weaknesses in the averages to bolster

their confidence in higher or lower.

Okay.

The first thing I want to
bring your attention to is this

there's three divisions in the.

When it comes to stock trading and there's
a lot of people that try to trade stocks

a lot more actively than they should.

A lot of folks try to invest in
stocks more actively than they should.

And a lot of people think they know
something about stocks when they don't.

So just this, this lesson alone will
put you in the front of the pack.

As it relates to equities trading.

The first half of the year,
there's generally going to

be a large or high magnitude.

It means there's going to be
a lot of volatility, but it's

going to be directionally driven.

Generally.

It's going to be bullish.

The second portion of the year I want
to talk about is the last quarter of.

And that's generally in primarily
a bullish time of the year as well.

I've spoken many times in extensive
detail about why the last portion of

the calendar year in the U S is so
strong because it's Laden with holidays

and year end spending has to come in.

So it's going to cause a lot of
energy and you can see there's

a very strong contrast to.

Magnitude and the velocity at which it
goes higher in the later portion of the

year in contrast to the first portion.

So that's the first and the second, uh,
segments of the counter year for stocks.

The last and most critical one you
need to understand is this portion

in the middle, this whole area,
right in here, that's boxed in.

This is what is referred
to as low magnitude period.

And it begins in may and ends in October.

So may to October generally,
you're going to be seeing a lot

less directionally driven markets.

Now it does not mean that you
won't have short-term directional

biases and or opportunities.

It just means that if you're new
to trading, do a lot less leverage.

If you're gonna be trading
options, do a lot less activity.

Don't be so aggressive
during these periods of.

You have all the summer months, you'll
have seasonal walls in spending because a

lot of people are looking to spend money
in vacations and other things like that.

So there's going to be a lot of cyclical
things that take place and non-cyclical

things that take place a yearly.

Main thing is, is during these periods or
these months, you want to be looking for

a range bound consolidation environment.

Overall.

Now they're individually going
to have their respective seasonal

tendency to month by month, but you
primarily want to focus on being a

trader from October to the end of
the year and from February to may.

Alright, Dow Jones, industrial season.

Okay, Gordon, we breaking
it down month by month.

So seasonal influences per calendar month
for the Dow Jones industrial January

typically is going to be a bearish month.

February's typically going
to be a bullish month.

March generally is seen
as a consolidation month.

April typically is a bullish.

May is typically a bearish month
and June is a consolidation

ending with a bear's tone.

July is Bush into the mid year.

High

August is generally seen
as a consolidation month.

September is split between the
first half being bullish and

the second half being buried.

October usually makes the
final quarter of the years low.

It can happen in September as
well during that second half

of the month of September.

So while it's bearish, it may drop
down because he's in a low there or

in October, it can make the low and
trade aggressively higher November

is typically a bullish month.

And finally, December is generally
a Santa Claus rally bullshit.

So here we have the entire calendar
year in broad brush terms, generic

terms, whether we should be expecting
higher prices or lower prices.

Now this is being conveyed to you by way
of looking at a 20 year average of 15

year average and a five-year average.

So if you look at the overall
consolidations and expansions and when

it's trending and when it's not trending
on when it's going higher, when it's

not going higher, They are very closely
correlated in terms of what they're

doing, the blue and the red line.

So if we see this, it, in my opinion,
it bolsters confidence behind the

number crunching of seasonal tendencies,
because if it's going to average over

the last 20 years to go higher in
February, and it's going to average

that same thing in 15 years of data,
it's being re reflected in both.

In different timeframes of
an hour, analyzing the data.

It speaks volumes to me in terms
of consistency, not consistency

is not high probability or
perfection or panacea beyond endo.

Absolutely no risk.

It means that probabilities
are historically speaking.

Obviously nothing is guaranteed
by looking in the past, but if

we're going to assume there is a.

To this, and we're going to
be using seasonal tendencies.

I think this is one
that's worth looking into.

So breaking them the calendar
months as we've done here gives

us a pretty strong consensus about
what we should be doing each month.

If we're going to be short term or swing
trading stocks, also, we can be looking

at it for day trading, the S and P if
we're really a stewed about everything.

And if you look.

We have months where we know that there's
going to be far less likely to have an

opportunity with high probabilities.

And those are March, June, August,
those months typically are going

to be not fruitful in terms of
high probability conditions.

Now, I already know some of you,
that's probably going to hear this.

It's done some stock trading,
whatever you're going to say.

Well, what about this month
in August of this year?

Or that year, and there's always going
to be some abarition where it just simply

doesn't fit the seasonal and that's okay.

That's fine.

There's gonna be many times when
the months that are suggested here

as bullish or bearish, won't be
that there'll be the opposite.

It's going to be based largely
on the underlying trends or the

environments of the marketplace.

But because the seasonal tendency
is really highlighting the

underlying tendency for stocks
to be purchased, bought, and.

Then it's obviously going to show the
strongest buy-side seasonal tendencies.

So while the market is bullish, if
we look at the bullish months, those

will indicate in my opinion, the
best opportunities to be looking,

to be swing trading long stocks.

Now the bearish months, what we
would be looking for is even during

strong periods in last 20 years or so
when the stock market's been going.

If we see that there are typically
months in the year, like may,

generally is a bearish month.

And the second half of September
is generally a bearish month.

Those and January as well, being a
bear's month, those months, if they are

bears, even in underlying bull markets,
they could spell aggressive sellers.

In bear markets.

So if we focused on those months, when
the market's generally going lower, or

the tide as a whole is moving lower,
that could actually become really

supercharged short-selling months
where we can be looking for sellers in

weak stocks or bearish on SMP trading.

Okay.

So we're going to look at a
couple of case studies here.

I'm not going to do the entire calendar
year because I want to inspire you

to go to bar chart.com and pull
up the individual months yourself.

And you can go back and look at all that
data by simply putting in the beginning

and the ending dates of each calendar.

And usually in respect to
delivery contracts, uh, mark.

June September and December contracts.

And you can look at the, uh, the
contract codes from the previous.

Lessons in this month where I actually
gave you the delivery contract

month codes and how it pulled up the
year and all that for each symbol.

So we're looking at the first
one here and that's going to be

seen for the month of February.

And we obviously knew looking at the
previous slide that February generally is

a bullish month at seasonally speaking.

So on the chart here on the
right-hand side, we're looking

to major stock ad averages.

The top chart is going to be the NAS.

The middle chart is
going to be the evening.

The S and P and the Dow Jones
is seen at the lower end.

And I'm using the futures contract is
to just show a representation of it.

It doesn't have to be the futures chart.

You can use the cash prices.

It's still going to speak the same thing,
but I want you to look at the second

and 3rd of February, you can see that
the NASDAQ made equal low while the.

S and P and the Dow failed to go to that
equal, low, and actually made higher lows.

So that's our criteria that we look for.

We want to see strong tendencies to
see a known, willingness to go lower.

And there's our index SMT that we looked
at during the S and P trading content.

So we see the indices starting to
show signs of smart money accumulate.

And even later in the month, during the
period of the sixth to the eighth trading

day, you can see that the NASDAQ made
a higher, low, the S and P made a lower

low, and the dowel Jones made a slightly
higher, low, and then we saw another

movement higher across the average.

Okay, we're gonna be looking
at the next one here.

And this is going to be looking at March
and they can see here in the shaded area,

March generally is a consolidation period.

It does have its little whip
stalls of higher and lower prices.

And if you really want to get aggressive
about it, you can see during the second

week of March down into the third
week of March, generally is bearish.

And then it starts to rally
towards the close of March.

And you can see that
generally communicated.

With the index divergence as well with
the NASDAQ making higher highs and

the SMP in the middle, making lower
highs while the dowel Jones futures

was making lower highs as well.

And you can see the resulting sell off.

At the lows between the 21st and the
26th, you can see the divergents,

which I'm not going to highlight here.

I want you to look at and study,
but you can see the NASDAQ has a

higher, low comparable to the lows
that are seen in the E-mini S and

P and the Dow futures contract.

So then you can see there is
the subsequent rally higher

across the major three X.

So while it's consolidation, it doesn't
mean there isn't any opportunity to just

means that you don't have to look at what
you're looking at in terms of context.

And you can see generally it's
consolidation the entire month.

Okay.

The next one here, we're going to
be looking at the month of April

and I had the contracts for the
NASDAQ E-mini S and P at the bottom

and down in the center this time.

And you can see the divergence that.

Indicating smart money as a community
and stocks with the NASDAQ failing to

make a lower low while the Dow went
lower and the S and P failed to go lower.

So the index divergence there, and we
have a nice movement higher the same time.

We're seeing that mid month of April
that's in the seasonal tendency.

It starts off as slightly
bearish tone, and then it volts

aggressively up into ends of April.

And you can see that actually occurring.

In all of the averages.

Okay.

Our final example here, we're
gonna be looking at the month

of may and that's seen here
seasonally on the left-hand side.

So it's certainly a bearish month
and you can see looking at the

averages on the right-hand side,
the E-mini S and P is the top chart.

This time.

It makes a slightly higher high while.

Dow futures fails to make a higher high.

And the NASDAQ does in fact, make a higher
high, and we have a sell-off into the

mid point almost the third week of may.

And you see that little flurry
higher and the seasonal tendency

on the left hand side, as it
goes into the close of the month.

And that same thing as being
seen here in may as well.

So it creates a seasonal low inter
month, but overall it's generally

a bearish month as a whole.

Having brought this up
and mentioning it to you.

Um, as a reminder, the month of 2017 may
is part of a larger consolidation that's

been seen in this year of the recording.

I'm making 2017, it's been an
unorthodox stock market right now.

Um, it's been.

A market that keeps finding higher
highs, but it's doing so with stocks

that are formerly pushing higher.

That general my market averages,
they're starting to lose their highs.

In other words, that they're
not making new highs.

So the market's actually making higher
highs, but it's doing it with a lot of

the leadership, not doing it anymore.

So there's going to be times when.

The stock, market's
going to defy all logic.

It's going to do whatever you
think it's not going to do.

It's going to do that
very thing and vice versa.

So if you're going to be trading stocks,
in my opinion, it's better to focus on

times when the market is predisposed
to go higher and not be such a bubble.

Like I believe we are in the year of 2017.

I think that if you are going to.

Be a trader that uses investment ideas
like IRAs or retirement accounts,

if it's possible for you, where you
live globally, if you could do it as

a self-directed medium and trade your
own choices and your own selections

about what stops you should be in.

Uh, doing that, I believe
will supercharge your return.

And you're not going to have
someone do any better job than you.

In terms of caring about your money.

You care about the money you worked
for it, you obtained it by inheritance.

You've done whatever you done.

Okay.

Individually, they receive that money.

Okay.

And generally, most of us
had to work hard to get it.

So we're going to care about losing
it, uh, folks that are at these

firms that supposedly are, um,
Looking out for our best interest.

They aren't really looking out for
your best interest and in contractual,

either not even obligated to do that.

Surprisingly, when you look at
it closely, so is it's a market

that always propels new suckers.

There's always a new crowd of willing
participants and it doesn't matter

what kind of market we've seen.

There's always someone
willing to put money into it

because the idea is perpetual.

Invest for the future.

Invest for tax deduction, detects,
deferment, all that stuff.

And you all retire rich at the end.

And then we have these major
stock market crashes and

corrections and all these things.

And many times people may have
had a lot of paper profit, but

something happens along the line.

They don't have nowhere near as
much as they thought they were

going to have, or at one time.

So as an investor in stocks, I
still think that you need to be at.

In stocks, there's times that you
want to be in stocks and times

you want to be out of stocks.

And we are focusing with this
teaching here in this entire week of

presentations, when it's ideal, based
on past information, you're looking at

cyclically seasonally and statistically
where things usually come to fruition.

So if we can focus on those little sweet
spots, if you will, for investing in

stocks, it, if anything, well, it least,
hopefully it be advantageous for us to

do so versus just trying to buy stocks
because, you know, because Jim Cramer

or somebody else on the, you know,
the, and tells us we should be dealing.

So that's not an idea
that should be followed.

So if we do things in our own
analysis and we get to the outcome,

Delivers a consistent return to
outpaces and outperforms the market,

which I believe the concepts I'm
teaching you this week will do a

better job than the general averages.

Okay.

There's, there's a lot of, uh, Ms.

Numerous, as it relates to what the stock
market average return is per year, because

of all these number crunching things.

Um, just forget all that.

Don't even have an idea of what
you should have in terms of return,

because you're probably going to do.

Well, well different than what
you thought you were going to do.

And many times, you know, ideally, you
know, you'll outperform what your lowest

expectation was going to be, and maybe
even your highest expectations from years.

So as we go through this week's
material, just understand.

Aimed at number one, providing
another asset class to use.

If it isn't interesting to you, or
if you have a medium where you can do

retirement accounts and you can do as a
self-directed medium, where you're, you're

picking and choosing when you're getting
into money, what stocks you're owning.

The other lessons by looking at stocks
will be covered in an additional video

that will be after the fifth lesson.

So they'll actually be
six videos this week.

So you'll have six videos for this
particular week, and then we'll close out

the session, uh, for the month of June.

But I'm confident by the end of this
week, you'll know a lot more about

stocks than the average person does.

He certainly everyone on the
YouTube, that's supposed to be

making money and getting rich on it.

So until our next lesson, I
wish you good luck and good.