All language subtitles for Lesson 5 - Bond Trading Setups EN

Okay folks, it's important.

You read this disclaimers
here and it's a reminder.

I'm not a licensed
commodity trade advisor.

Everything that's been spoken about
in here in this teaching and all of

the commodity teachings should be
viewed in the form of a paper trade

only for informational purposes only.

Okay.

June, 2017, ICT mentorship,
ICT bond trading, lesson number

five, bond trading setup.

Okay.

Bond trading setups simplified.

Now, as we talked about institutional
order flow premium and discount arrays

PD, Ray matrix, if the data range has
all those things apply to bond trading,

but primarily we're looking for premium
and discount and institutional orders.

So when we look at the bond market and
we're starting our analysis, obviously

on a higher timeframe, if we can start
from a monthly, weekly and daily, that's

ideal, but you can still do from daily
down, especially if you're looking

for day trades or short-term entries
for intraday trading, and that can

help you segue into your analysis with
the foreign exchange market as well.

So when we look at a price action
on a daily, we're looking for

institutional order flow, we're
trying to determine if it's bullshit.

And it's reminder a bullish institutional
order flow is going to be seen with

down closed candle, supporting.

And bearish border blocks are seen
with up-close candles and it's going

to repel price and act as resistance.

So as long as we keep seeing in
bullish environments down close

candle, supporting price and up-close
candles being broken on the upside

institutional order flow is bullish.

Very, very simple rules.

As long as up-close candles are
repelling price as resistance and down

close candles are being broken down.

Move is being confirmed and
institutional order flow is.

Higher timeframe, PD array matrix.

We're going to be referring to it
in terms of determining if the bond

market on a daily is in a premium or
discount, we're going to be noting the

current PD array relative to the matrix.

And basically what we're doing
is if we are in a discount.

We're going to be looking for all
of the potential discount PD arrays.

If the market is in a premium, we're gonna
be looking for all the premium PD rays

to now looking at the daily chart
charter, the treasury bond, mark.

You can see here, the market has had
very strong support by institutional

order flow, finding support and new
buying it down close candles, and

up-close candles are being broken.

So as this happens, we are defining as
daily institutional overflow is bullish.

So every time the market goes down into a.

Bullish discount array or down closed
candle or bullish, shorter block or

closes in a range that expanded up
fair value gap or liquidity void.

Or if it trades down below an old low,
that's all defined at a discount array.

You can see that as seen here where the
market trades down into a Bush water

block just underneath the 1 54 big figure.

And just above the 1 53 16.

Price changed into that bullish
order block as a discount array while

institutional flow is bullish, we would
expect price to reach for a premium array.

The premium Ray would be seen
as a rejection block at 1 55

big figure and the old high just
below the 1 55 16 30 seconds.

Not soon after that, a few
days later, price expands up

trade two to 1 56 big figure.

And the PDA Ray matrix institutional
order flow has helped in this analysis.

As you saw, then we dropped to
the two hour chart or 120 minute

chart for precision pediatric.

So we're going to do, going to drop down
to a two hour chart and you're looking

for bulls shorter blocks, any discount
array to be fine tuned for our entry

wants the two hour PD array is selected.

We dropped down to a 15 minute chart
now while we're in the 15 minutes.

We monitor price action from
London session into the New York.

And we look for the interest rate
triad to confirm smart money action.

If the triad fails to signal smart money
sponsorship of the selected PD array,

we avoid the trade and stay sideline.

The keys to the kingdom.

All right.

So what we do is we refer to our five-year
treasury notes, our ten-year treasury

notes and the 30 year treasury bond.

And we look at this for comparative
analysis or relative strength analysis.

By blinding to three to five to
10 and a 30 year, we're looking

for the interest rate yet.

We're looking for the cracking correlation
because they are debt instruments.

They should move in tandem
direction should be the

same, but key turning points.

One will fail.

To confirm the higher, higher
to lower, low by itself.

That means absolutely nothing,
but we're going to actually give

you the context of what makes the
interest rate triad so precise.

So what are we looking for
specifically and how do we use it?

Okay, well, we're going to look at the
five-year T note 120 minute or two hour

candle, and we're going to focus on.

The specific time period.

Now this time period, we
look for a divergence.

This time period is the bond kill zone.

It's specific to 3:00 AM.

New York time to 9:00 AM, New York time.

This makes millionaires.

This is the thing that no one was.

Without being a private one-on-one
session with me back in the late

nineties, this is the key turning point.

This is the reference point in
which we judge, whether there's a

divergence or not with the triad.

And it also unlocks other
asset class movement,

put a tenure T note to our chart.

We look for the same time period, and we
look for the lows and then we're looking

for when institutional order flow is.

And we're down into a discount array.

We're looking for this pattern to form.

This is the footprint for smart money.

So far.

We've had both the five-year and the
10 year supporting a higher, low as

we go into the New York open session.

Now the chart that we look to trade off
of, or we use for the trigger is we're

looking at the 30 year treasury bond to
our chart, same reference points in time.

So we have our bond kills zone.

And now look what we have.

We have a lower, low, this divergence
confirmed smart money accumulation of

longs pouring into the discount array.

This is what we're looking for to split.

Out a clear billboard sign.

Hello.

It's time to get in here
to market's going to move.

The only time that we look for this
divergence is when we have a PD array

that's based on institutional order
flow on a daily chart two-hour chart.

And once it trades to that discount
or premium array relative to the

institutional order flow on a daily
chart, then we hunt the signal.

If it does not have all those
characteristics, we don't do anything.

But this in the proper context, as
it's been outlined here, this gives

us all the framework to understanding
when the market's going to move, how

it's going to move in what direction.

So now we dropped down
into a 15 minute timeframe.

This is the five-year
keynote, 15 minute chart.

And again, at that reference
point here, we can see a clear,

higher going into the New York.

And this is the CME open or
8:20 AM in New York time.

10-year treasury note,
15 minute timeframe.

Again, we see a clear higher, low,
so notice what's going on here.

Both the five-year and the 10 year
are trading with a higher, low, but

trading into a bullish order block.

By itself, that would be a bull scenario.

But remember I said back, even
in the sniper series, there's no,

panaceas when, as it relates to order
blocks, you have to confirm them with

institutional order flow and smart money.

And this is how we can see
smart money's footprint.

It's failing to make a lower, low,
and the five-year it's failing to

make a lower low in attendance.

Both of which are finding them
trading back at a Bush or a block

or down close candle near the lowest
low during the London session.

So we're looking at the lows from
London, going into New York session,

open for buys when it's bullish.

And we're looking at the highs from
London, going into New York session

when institutional air order flow
is bearish and we're at a premium.

And again, this is
occurring at the CME open.

Finally, we have the treasury bond,
15 minute chart, and we can see here,

we have a clear old, low equal lows.

And the million dollar question
is, is when is it a stop

wrong or a valid breakout.

So when we have these conditions, Where we
are expecting bullishness, we're expecting

a discount array to support price on the
bond market daily chart or two-hour chart.

That means we're going to anticipate
one of two scenarios, the lower,

low for Ron's on cell stops or
the higher, low for reoccurring.

So in other words, the higher low
scene in the five-year and 10-year

those markets are going to go higher
based on their bullish or block, but

notice that the bond market went lower.

So what's going on there?

The bond market's going down to
knock out the cell stops, but

this premise is still the same.

So we can see a turtle soup scenario
for a long on the 30 year treasury bond.

And we can feel confident
by buying under the old.

Contrast the lower low seam here with
the higher load that we saw in the

five-year and a tenure at the time we
look for it from the London session

crossover to the New York session.

That's our sweet spot.

We're looking for the signal of form
there, but we have to refer to what

the highs or lows were in the London.

That's our setup or our stage, if you
will, for institutional order flow to line

up with smart money buying and selling.

In this case, we can see, this
would look like a breakout to other

retail traders on the downside.

We can see through institutional
order flow and understand what

premium and discount rates are.

And.

Looking at how the interest rate triad
filters out Aaron Price action, where

it's no longer going to go lower.

It's just reaching for the sell
stock offset before it trades higher.

And again, this is
occurring around the CMIO.

So the interest rate triad in simplest
terms, visually, this is what I want

you to think about, and this is what
I want to edge in your mind, because

it's a very, very simple process.

It's very simple to understand, and
it's very easy to execute on, you

know, what you're gonna be looking for.

Step-by-step.

You understand premium and discount, you
understand the discount and premium array

matrix and what they are specifically
and relative to premium and discount.

We understand what institutional
order flow is and how to map that.

It's very simple rules,
institutional order flow.

When it's bullish, close candle supports
price up-close cows get broken when

institutional order flow is bearish
up-close candles, provide resistance

and price and down close candles.

That's simple, simple rules folks.

You can't get any easier than that.

As long as you keep seeing that occur on
a higher timeframe, institutional airflow

is bullish or bears relative roles.

But assuming we understand that and
we understand where the market trades

into a discount or a premium relative
to the current trading range on the

timeframe we're using to set up the
trade relative to a daily or two hour.

That's how I used it for my book.

What we're looking for is when bears order
flow and premium arrays are expected.

We're looking at that divergence
at the highs when bullish order

flow and discount arrays are seen.

And again, we're expecting to
see that in the five year, the 10

year and the 30 year, we're not
just looking at the 30 year alone.

We're going to be looking at the
five year to 10 year and a 30

year to create that scenario.

So the premium or discount array could
manifest itself in say for instance,

the five-year Tino, but the pattern that
we're looking for relative to all three

for the triad, that's going to support
the bullshit bears nature or the smart

money entry to know where it's, when
smart money is pouring into a premium

rate rate for the market trades lower.

One of these either the five or 10 or
30 year is going to bear see diverse,

not make a higher high, that's all we're
seeing and price action to trigger that

at the time of the New York open session,
the reverse is said with the bullish

order flow and discount array, we're
going to be looking for those lower lows.

Okay.

To be met by one of the.

Treasury markets to diverged bullishly
at the New York open relative to the

load at seen overnight in London.

So all we're doing is looking
for the lows and the highs

swarmed in the London session.

Understanding what institutional
order flow is on a daily and two hour.

And are we in a discount or
a premium market relative to.

And when it lines up, we'd go in looking
for the bond kill zone to frame our

condition for when we can see smart
money entering longs or entering short.

By focusing on this, it gives
the market context and you know

exactly what you're looking for.

And as I already spelled out in the
previous lesson, when we see the

bond market, that's free to move in a
directional bias, higher or lower that

unlocks the other market asset classes.

And by looking at that, that gives
us a whole different dimension

of analysis before an exchange
to now very simple process.

But think about what you've learned here,
you went through all kinds of teachings

to arrive at what would otherwise be
shown as someone else saying this same.

It doesn't make any sense to me.

What am I looking at now?

You understand why it has to be several
lessons over several months to get this.

Now, some of you are invariably going
to say, well, I could have figured

this out, you know, with this video
alum, Michael, I don't believe so.

'cause you wouldn't see it enough and
understand the rules, how they have to

come into a concert with one another.

They have to be in uniform with
one another when they occur, it

unlocks all the other asset classes.

So not only is it a signal generation
for bond trading, it's also a

signal generation for activity
permitting you to trade in a New

York session with high prices.

So hopefully you found this lesson on
bond trading in the specifics and how I

use the bond market for timing purposes.

What I'm looking for in terms
of my entry, the question is,

is where do I take profits?

You look at the premium array on
the two-hour chart, the nearest.

Premium array or discount array
relative to what you're trading onwards.

If you're looking to be long in this,
as we showed an example in here, if

you're looking to buy a discount array,
when bullish order flows seen in daily

and to our chart, you're going to be
looking for a two hour premium array

for your objective or targets when
bear's order flow is seen on a daily

and or two hour chart, and we're at
a premium market at a premium around.

Selling short, we go up for a
two hour discount or right as

our target, very simple rules.

Very, very easy to understand,
but understanding it gives us a

whole nother level of understanding
for all the other asset classes.

So if we found this lesson
insightful, It's the core of what

I was doing as a bond trader back
in the commodities days only.

And it is a dandy is so good.

It's so strong.

It's so consistent.

And like I said, there's very little
manipulation in the bond market

compared to the other asset classes.

That's why this pattern works
so strongly because it's so

pure as a market asset class.

When we see the divergence, it
can be very, very trustworthy.

So until the next lesson, I wish
you good luck and good trading.