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These are the user uploaded subtitles that are being translated: 1 00:00:08,390 --> 00:00:10,730 When we talk about the commodity markets is very important that you 2 00:00:10,730 --> 00:00:16,010 read just disclaimers everything that's being discussed in this segment of our 3 00:00:16,010 --> 00:00:18,890 discussion on commodities, any trade. 4 00:00:20,174 --> 00:00:25,455 Discussion or idea or concept should be viewed in the light of a 5 00:00:25,455 --> 00:00:27,104 paper trade, not an actual trade. 6 00:00:27,494 --> 00:00:30,615 I'm not a CTA, so I'm not licensed to get trade advice about commodities, 7 00:00:31,154 --> 00:00:34,575 but I'm sharing ideas on how I've looked at the commodity market over 8 00:00:34,575 --> 00:00:38,655 the last 20 plus years and where I've seen consistency, finding directional 9 00:00:38,655 --> 00:00:41,084 bias and support resistance ideas. 10 00:00:48,825 --> 00:00:49,365 Okay. 11 00:00:49,815 --> 00:00:50,055 All right. 12 00:00:50,055 --> 00:00:54,645 So we are in the first of the June, 2017 content ICT mentorship. 13 00:00:55,155 --> 00:00:58,545 Uh, it says ICT commodity trading lesson, one commitment of traders. 14 00:00:58,755 --> 00:00:59,505 How I use the. 15 00:01:01,815 --> 00:01:02,295 Okay. 16 00:01:02,895 --> 00:01:05,444 And the first thing we're gonna be looking at is the raw data. 17 00:01:05,444 --> 00:01:09,495 Now, when we look at the commitment of traders report, uh, what is that? 18 00:01:09,555 --> 00:01:14,445 Well, the all data comes by way of a weekly report released by the CFTC. 19 00:01:14,775 --> 00:01:19,155 And you can find this on www dot CFTC gov. 20 00:01:20,295 --> 00:01:23,445 And what you want to look for is you want to be looking at the futures 21 00:01:23,445 --> 00:01:25,815 contract only in the short format. 22 00:01:26,355 --> 00:01:29,235 And if you do this under the CME, which is the Chicago Marketo. 23 00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:33,210 Uh, we can find the currencies that trade as calm dolls. 24 00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:37,080 And one of the calm dolls are Japanese yen. 25 00:01:37,650 --> 00:01:42,720 And this is the most recent short format commitment of traders 26 00:01:42,720 --> 00:01:44,250 report for the Japanese yen. 27 00:01:45,660 --> 00:01:48,870 As you see here, this is just for the Japanese yen futures contract. 28 00:01:48,870 --> 00:01:52,770 Now the CFTC website gives you the opportunity to pull up the. 29 00:01:53,970 --> 00:01:54,929 Positions as well. 30 00:01:54,990 --> 00:01:56,520 I'm not concerning myself with that. 31 00:01:56,520 --> 00:01:58,110 I never concerned myself with that at all. 32 00:01:58,530 --> 00:02:03,179 I look at only the futures positions and you want to be looking in the center 33 00:02:03,179 --> 00:02:04,979 column here, where it says commercial. 34 00:02:06,690 --> 00:02:09,150 And when you see that commercial area, it's going to give you a little 35 00:02:09,780 --> 00:02:13,470 column that says long to the left and in short to the right directly, 36 00:02:13,470 --> 00:02:20,850 underneath that long column, you'll see that there is 143,450 contracts. 37 00:02:21,210 --> 00:02:22,859 That's the commercial long position. 38 00:02:24,720 --> 00:02:27,180 And then to the right of that underneath the short column, 39 00:02:27,840 --> 00:02:31,830 it's 76,426 contract short. 40 00:02:32,640 --> 00:02:35,760 The way we get the net position is we subtract the two to get to. 41 00:02:36,780 --> 00:02:38,850 And if it's a positive number, it's net long. 42 00:02:38,850 --> 00:02:40,560 If it's a negative number it's net short. 43 00:02:40,890 --> 00:02:48,030 In this case, we have 67,024 contracts long that by the difference between the 44 00:02:48,030 --> 00:02:49,340 long positions and the short positions. 45 00:02:49,340 --> 00:02:55,470 So there's, uh, a net long position of 67,024 contracts long. 46 00:02:56,760 --> 00:03:01,860 Now, basically this tells us nothing about their current hedging program. 47 00:03:02,310 --> 00:03:05,100 So what we had to do is have to look deeper and go behind the numbers and 48 00:03:05,100 --> 00:03:06,330 see what it is they've been doing. 49 00:03:11,400 --> 00:03:11,790 Okay. 50 00:03:11,820 --> 00:03:13,590 Net tres position line chart. 51 00:03:14,130 --> 00:03:17,850 And with this chart, we can track the three main classes of traders. 52 00:03:19,620 --> 00:03:24,120 And again, you would find this on www.bar chart.com. 53 00:03:24,120 --> 00:03:25,380 You see me use it many times in the. 54 00:03:27,375 --> 00:03:29,835 And what you're gonna be doing is going to be plotting a daily chart. 55 00:03:30,165 --> 00:03:34,704 And you'll be including in the indicator portion on the bottom of the chart, 56 00:03:34,704 --> 00:03:39,435 you're going to be adding the net traders physician line chart and the 57 00:03:39,435 --> 00:03:42,675 duration you want to be displaying as at least one year's worth of price action. 58 00:03:45,165 --> 00:03:49,394 And the commercial traders are typically on bar trot.com shown as the red line 59 00:03:49,515 --> 00:03:53,655 at the bottom of the chart, the large traders are shown as in a green. 60 00:03:54,630 --> 00:03:58,320 And the small speculators are always shown in as a blue line. 61 00:03:59,340 --> 00:04:04,380 But when we look at this price action against the net traded 62 00:04:04,380 --> 00:04:07,920 position line chart, I want you to visually see the hedging 63 00:04:07,920 --> 00:04:09,390 programs by the commercial traders. 64 00:04:09,930 --> 00:04:14,760 Now, when I first got into trading, obviously my mentor was Larry 65 00:04:14,760 --> 00:04:18,720 Williams, much like everyone else that's ever come across as material. 66 00:04:19,260 --> 00:04:20,310 He's like the godfather. 67 00:04:20,310 --> 00:04:21,750 If you will, of the cot. 68 00:04:22,845 --> 00:04:26,835 So everything he mentioned in his 1970 book, how I made a million dollars 69 00:04:26,835 --> 00:04:30,975 trading commodities last year using the commercial information that was like 70 00:04:32,415 --> 00:04:33,795 light years ahead of everything else. 71 00:04:34,395 --> 00:04:37,965 Naturally, everyone flocked to, to just looking at whether the 72 00:04:37,965 --> 00:04:39,255 commercials are net long or. 73 00:04:41,429 --> 00:04:42,359 Much like everyone else. 74 00:04:42,390 --> 00:04:46,200 I found out by trial and error that it isn't that easy. 75 00:04:46,200 --> 00:04:48,210 You got to go in there and do some more research. 76 00:04:48,630 --> 00:04:52,859 Uh, I thought clearly by looking at the commercials, uh, if, if they were 77 00:04:52,859 --> 00:04:57,989 buying to therefore, I had to be a buyer too, but because their nature of 78 00:04:58,020 --> 00:05:02,400 what they are as a, as a participant in the marketplace, they are usual. 79 00:05:03,570 --> 00:05:10,290 Large corporate producers or users of commodities and commodities. 80 00:05:10,290 --> 00:05:11,760 Like a calm dial is the same thing. 81 00:05:12,060 --> 00:05:15,659 Uh, currencies are a commodity they're they're they're bought and sold. 82 00:05:15,840 --> 00:05:21,030 They're provided for, in terms of allowing global commerce, um, you 83 00:05:21,030 --> 00:05:26,190 know, providing loans, uh, making transactions all over the world. 84 00:05:26,370 --> 00:05:29,550 And because there's a difference of all these countries around 85 00:05:29,550 --> 00:05:30,780 the world, there's going to be. 86 00:05:32,085 --> 00:05:35,804 Change from one currency to the other to do business or make 87 00:05:35,804 --> 00:05:37,125 transactions in another country. 88 00:05:37,635 --> 00:05:42,914 So just like we would look at, for instance, like Coco for Hershey, where 89 00:05:42,914 --> 00:05:49,784 they make a large, um, uh, production of chocolate every day, their number one. 90 00:05:51,075 --> 00:05:53,175 Ingredient is sugar and cocoa. 91 00:05:53,445 --> 00:05:57,345 So if we follow those commodities, you naturally cook. 92 00:05:57,495 --> 00:06:01,035 Coco is going to have a lot of fundamental supply and demand 93 00:06:01,035 --> 00:06:02,175 factors that go along with it. 94 00:06:02,715 --> 00:06:04,725 And Hershey is going to have a trained, accredited staff to 95 00:06:04,725 --> 00:06:05,815 track all those things that. 96 00:06:06,620 --> 00:06:11,510 You keep a closer eye on whether the price is really cheap or expensive. 97 00:06:11,750 --> 00:06:14,390 And if they think it's gonna be expensive in the near future, they're 98 00:06:14,390 --> 00:06:17,030 gonna be much more aggressive about buying it because they want to lock 99 00:06:17,030 --> 00:06:19,940 in lower prices because they know at a later time, prices will go higher. 100 00:06:20,210 --> 00:06:21,920 The same thing occurs with currencies. 101 00:06:21,950 --> 00:06:28,100 So if we look at the net chairs position line chart, it gives us a graphic 102 00:06:28,100 --> 00:06:31,370 depiction of the overall net basis. 103 00:06:31,880 --> 00:06:35,120 In other words, are they above the zero line or below this airline? 104 00:06:36,885 --> 00:06:37,545 By itself. 105 00:06:37,545 --> 00:06:38,685 It doesn't mean anything. 106 00:06:38,715 --> 00:06:43,035 But when we look at the information a little bit closer in a different light, 107 00:06:43,245 --> 00:06:46,605 you'll have a lot better understanding about what they're doing as a hedger. 108 00:06:49,575 --> 00:06:51,315 So that brings us to the commercial hedging. 109 00:06:51,825 --> 00:06:55,875 So naturally, if we pull up a bar chart.com chart of the Japanese 110 00:06:55,875 --> 00:07:00,915 yen, and you put the net traders in line chart, one, the chart 111 00:07:00,915 --> 00:07:04,005 itself with about one year's worth of data, this is what you get. 112 00:07:04,725 --> 00:07:05,025 So. 113 00:07:06,240 --> 00:07:08,250 By itself again, it means absolutely nothing. 114 00:07:08,520 --> 00:07:17,220 You can see between today's present date of June 5th, 2017, and December of 2016. 115 00:07:17,790 --> 00:07:20,580 The commercials, the red line at the bottom of the chart shows 116 00:07:20,580 --> 00:07:25,680 that red line above the zero line, that zero line delineates, whether 117 00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:27,450 we're net long or net short. 118 00:07:28,275 --> 00:07:34,125 So if that red line is above the zero line from December, 2016, to present time June, 119 00:07:34,125 --> 00:07:39,165 2017, that means that the commercials have been net long for over six months. 120 00:07:40,095 --> 00:07:42,075 So what does that mean? 121 00:07:42,075 --> 00:07:46,335 You buy all only just buy doesn't mean you just buy there's other things 122 00:07:46,335 --> 00:07:50,625 you have to look at, but by itself it means that they are in a buy program. 123 00:07:51,165 --> 00:07:51,375 Okay. 124 00:07:51,375 --> 00:07:54,075 So there's a buy program and then it's hedging programs. 125 00:07:54,465 --> 00:07:56,115 The buy program is a. 126 00:07:57,120 --> 00:08:02,700 Macro perspective or macro program where they focus the bulk of their buying. 127 00:08:03,300 --> 00:08:06,960 And while they'll hedge and sell some, there'll be hedging in prices 128 00:08:06,960 --> 00:08:12,780 by selling the shorter-term by program 129 00:08:15,780 --> 00:08:20,490 can be seen by looking at the 12 to six month duration. 130 00:08:20,490 --> 00:08:24,240 So in other words, we look back a year to see what they've done, the highest. 131 00:08:25,185 --> 00:08:30,075 Net long position and the lowest net long position they've had and the 132 00:08:30,165 --> 00:08:34,695 lowest net short position and the highest net short position they've had. 133 00:08:35,085 --> 00:08:37,905 So we break the market down in two categories. 134 00:08:38,175 --> 00:08:42,044 What was their action above that zero line as a whole? 135 00:08:42,075 --> 00:08:45,075 What was the highest reading and the lowest reading while above the zero line. 136 00:08:45,585 --> 00:08:47,565 And what was the highest reading and the lowest reading below the. 137 00:08:48,719 --> 00:08:51,270 So there's a buy program when they're above the zero line and a 138 00:08:51,270 --> 00:08:52,500 cell program when they're below it. 139 00:08:52,800 --> 00:08:56,040 But there's also hedging that goes on commercial hedging programs 140 00:08:56,430 --> 00:08:57,900 that we need to be aware of. 141 00:08:57,900 --> 00:09:01,260 And you can check them by using this information, but you have 142 00:09:01,260 --> 00:09:02,400 to look at it differently. 143 00:09:02,489 --> 00:09:04,829 You can't look at it like this because this is what retail sees. 144 00:09:05,459 --> 00:09:09,390 Obviously retail, isn't going to have the true perspective on what 145 00:09:09,390 --> 00:09:12,119 price is doing from a commercial or institutional perspective. 146 00:09:12,449 --> 00:09:15,900 So what I have to do is change your perspective on how we look at it. 147 00:09:16,170 --> 00:09:17,130 So let's take a look at it closely. 148 00:09:18,525 --> 00:09:19,095 So, okay. 149 00:09:19,115 --> 00:09:20,985 When we're focusing on here is the bottom of the chart. 150 00:09:21,345 --> 00:09:25,035 These three lines here again, they represent the green line is 151 00:09:25,035 --> 00:09:28,875 the large speculators, big, large funds or big private traders that 152 00:09:28,875 --> 00:09:30,405 have a lot of, uh, position size. 153 00:09:30,765 --> 00:09:32,115 Small speculators is the blue line. 154 00:09:32,115 --> 00:09:33,675 That's usually the, uh, the public. 155 00:09:33,675 --> 00:09:35,565 They have no idea what's going on and in. 156 00:09:36,630 --> 00:09:42,390 Commercials or large speculators, uh, in terms of like a commercial user or 157 00:09:42,390 --> 00:09:46,860 producer of a commodity in this case, if it's a bank or lending institution, 158 00:09:47,190 --> 00:09:48,780 uh, they would be in that red line. 159 00:09:49,620 --> 00:09:51,540 So that red line is really what we're going to be tracking. 160 00:09:51,780 --> 00:09:52,950 We're only interested in that line. 161 00:09:52,950 --> 00:09:55,320 We don't care what the green line is because it's always going to 162 00:09:55,320 --> 00:09:59,330 be diametrically opposed to the actions or positions of that, the 163 00:09:59,330 --> 00:10:02,250 red line and the blue line we could care less about because that's the 164 00:10:02,370 --> 00:10:03,930 new street money, less informed. 165 00:10:05,310 --> 00:10:08,100 So, what I've done here is I've removed okay. 166 00:10:08,100 --> 00:10:13,800 By way of paint and you can do this if you want to, but it's not necessary once 167 00:10:13,800 --> 00:10:17,459 you understand the procedure or process that you go through by looking at price, 168 00:10:17,850 --> 00:10:19,890 you won't need to do this over time. 169 00:10:19,920 --> 00:10:22,350 You're just your, I will be trained to be able to look at this and 170 00:10:22,380 --> 00:10:23,520 be able to see it on its own. 171 00:10:23,699 --> 00:10:25,800 And you'll know, just by looking at a standard traditional 172 00:10:26,069 --> 00:10:28,140 chart, it'll jump off the. 173 00:10:29,265 --> 00:10:30,555 Quick first glance. 174 00:10:30,585 --> 00:10:34,485 You'll see exactly what's going on without having to do all of this acrobatics. 175 00:10:34,485 --> 00:10:36,285 I'm going to show you with removing the lines with paint. 176 00:10:36,285 --> 00:10:40,665 It's not necessary, but I'll say this before we go into it for those 177 00:10:40,665 --> 00:10:44,055 individuals that really want to have this data and be able to use it like 178 00:10:44,055 --> 00:10:47,925 this and see it graphically, uh, you can start collecting the data and you 179 00:10:47,925 --> 00:10:51,105 can download a historical data for all the commodities that you want to track. 180 00:10:51,495 --> 00:10:53,625 And for those individuals that are in here to only interest in. 181 00:10:54,160 --> 00:10:57,070 The currency markets, if you like your favorite pairs, just 182 00:10:57,100 --> 00:11:01,300 download, uh, historical data about the net traders destination. 183 00:11:01,420 --> 00:11:05,290 Um, for that particular currency unions, Princeton states, deputy Jan, 184 00:11:05,290 --> 00:11:10,240 you want to be a specialist in, you can download years worth of data on 185 00:11:10,270 --> 00:11:14,680 cot data and plot the commercial's net long positions and net short positions. 186 00:11:15,130 --> 00:11:16,330 And it would look like this. 187 00:11:16,330 --> 00:11:17,680 He could plot it with Xcel or something. 188 00:11:19,060 --> 00:11:21,970 And I'm certain, some of you guys that are really, uh, you know, cracker Jack 189 00:11:21,970 --> 00:11:25,360 with, uh, programming for empty for, you could probably create an indicator that 190 00:11:25,360 --> 00:11:29,770 does this, you know, where it plots the net traders position for the commercials. 191 00:11:29,770 --> 00:11:33,430 Only that way you can get a range and determine what the highest 192 00:11:33,430 --> 00:11:34,390 high and the lowest low is. 193 00:11:34,720 --> 00:11:37,390 And last six months in the last 12 months, and be able to get that range 194 00:11:37,390 --> 00:11:40,330 to define that, like we're going to discuss here, but without having 195 00:11:40,330 --> 00:11:41,860 to do all that, it's not necessary. 196 00:11:42,100 --> 00:11:43,830 But if you want to do it, there's things like that. 197 00:11:44,835 --> 00:11:48,495 But what I do is I quickly look at the chart and I see it as 198 00:11:48,495 --> 00:11:49,515 I'm going to outline it here. 199 00:11:49,875 --> 00:11:52,665 So obviously we have about a year's worth of data here, and you can 200 00:11:52,665 --> 00:11:57,135 see the red line is the commercial activity and rate in December, right 201 00:11:57,135 --> 00:11:58,605 before, actually December, right? 202 00:11:58,605 --> 00:12:01,935 Like the last week of November, you can see these swung from net 203 00:12:01,935 --> 00:12:07,215 short position below the zero basis line to net long in the last 204 00:12:07,215 --> 00:12:09,465 week or so of, uh, November, 2016. 205 00:12:09,825 --> 00:12:10,425 And they've remained. 206 00:12:11,310 --> 00:12:13,980 Above the zero line from that point on. 207 00:12:15,555 --> 00:12:18,315 So again by itself, it doesn't tell us anything. 208 00:12:18,405 --> 00:12:21,015 And this is the reason why people walk away from cot data. 209 00:12:21,255 --> 00:12:22,365 They say it's useless. 210 00:12:22,665 --> 00:12:24,165 Um, it's always hindsight. 211 00:12:24,165 --> 00:12:24,975 It can't be used. 212 00:12:24,975 --> 00:12:28,605 And, you know, in terms of being able to have prognostication about what price is 213 00:12:28,605 --> 00:12:32,175 going to do, and we're going to dispel that disbelief in this teaching here. 214 00:12:32,205 --> 00:12:35,205 So what we're gonna do is we're going to focus on when the 215 00:12:35,205 --> 00:12:36,615 market's below the zero line. 216 00:12:36,705 --> 00:12:37,035 Okay. 217 00:12:37,035 --> 00:12:43,485 So zero line basis below zero is when the net position is bearish or short. 218 00:12:44,275 --> 00:12:46,195 The position above the zero line. 219 00:12:46,225 --> 00:12:46,585 Okay. 220 00:12:46,615 --> 00:12:49,855 Or the net zero sum basis is going to be bullish. 221 00:12:49,885 --> 00:12:50,095 Okay. 222 00:12:50,095 --> 00:12:54,355 Are there net long when we have those conditions, there's going to 223 00:12:54,355 --> 00:12:58,135 be things that we can do to look for optimal, optimal trade entries. 224 00:12:58,255 --> 00:12:58,525 Okay. 225 00:12:58,525 --> 00:13:01,765 Not optimal trade entry pattern, but for optimal trade conditions for. 226 00:13:03,209 --> 00:13:06,239 So we're going to look at this price action segment here, and I 227 00:13:06,239 --> 00:13:08,130 want you to follow along with me. 228 00:13:08,160 --> 00:13:08,339 Okay. 229 00:13:08,339 --> 00:13:09,959 And we're going to look in this whole portion of price. 230 00:13:09,959 --> 00:13:12,719 Actually, I'm a lot closer and use this information, just like 231 00:13:12,719 --> 00:13:13,829 we see it here on this chart. 232 00:13:14,219 --> 00:13:18,089 We're going to change it slightly in terms of the perspective, but we, we, 233 00:13:18,150 --> 00:13:19,949 we're not manipulating the data at all. 234 00:13:20,160 --> 00:13:24,239 We're just really zooming in and looking at it from a hedging perspective. 235 00:13:24,270 --> 00:13:26,520 Cause there's a hedging program that I want you to see in price 236 00:13:26,520 --> 00:13:28,410 action that you can track with this. 237 00:13:30,000 --> 00:13:33,300 Some zero line and whether the commercials are net long or net short 238 00:13:33,360 --> 00:13:35,940 and the activity of their net positions. 239 00:13:38,160 --> 00:13:38,370 Okay. 240 00:13:38,370 --> 00:13:46,170 So this is January, 2016, all the way to January, 2017. 241 00:13:46,560 --> 00:13:46,950 Okay. 242 00:13:47,010 --> 00:13:49,680 And what we're going to do is run, take this entire. 243 00:13:50,535 --> 00:13:51,345 Price action. 244 00:13:51,675 --> 00:13:53,175 And we're gonna divide it in two segments. 245 00:13:53,415 --> 00:13:58,875 We're going to do the first portion up to January of 2017. 246 00:13:58,905 --> 00:14:05,545 We're going to start around, um, well, beginning of the year, 2016, I'm going 247 00:14:05,545 --> 00:14:09,074 to break that down, but before we get into it, I want you to look at what price 248 00:14:09,074 --> 00:14:12,735 was doing the whole first half of 2016. 249 00:14:14,235 --> 00:14:16,215 If you were looking at that, and obviously we have the benefit of 250 00:14:16,215 --> 00:14:21,285 hindsight here, but for the sake of argument, Looking at institutional order 251 00:14:21,285 --> 00:14:28,725 flow were the bullish or blocks being respected and we're up close candles 252 00:14:28,725 --> 00:14:32,775 or what would be deemed as a bare sort of block where they being broken. 253 00:14:33,314 --> 00:14:38,954 In other words, are we seeing price being supported by discount arrays, clearly 254 00:14:39,045 --> 00:14:40,545 beyond a shadow of a doubt it's there. 255 00:14:40,995 --> 00:14:45,555 So we know the institutional order flow was bullish from January of 2016. 256 00:14:46,275 --> 00:14:50,325 We're February, 2016, when price me that low and all the way through. 257 00:14:51,300 --> 00:14:57,240 Until around the mid July, going into the summer months, uh, there 258 00:14:57,240 --> 00:15:01,560 was a small little pullback that, uh, broke a short-term low and 259 00:15:01,560 --> 00:15:03,180 then price resumed higher again. 260 00:15:03,569 --> 00:15:09,270 And it had a lot of issues with getting above the 1.00 level when the Japanese 261 00:15:09,270 --> 00:15:12,689 yen, which we'll look at at the end of this teaching, why it struggled 262 00:15:12,689 --> 00:15:14,160 with that level and finally reversed. 263 00:15:14,580 --> 00:15:14,850 But. 264 00:15:15,620 --> 00:15:18,140 We can see how institutional order flow was bullish. 265 00:15:18,740 --> 00:15:22,580 Uh, every time a short-term loan was taken out, price rallied, any time of price, 266 00:15:22,580 --> 00:15:24,350 trade down into it, down closed candle. 267 00:15:24,500 --> 00:15:28,260 It was supported as a bull shoulder block and all of the premium PD 268 00:15:28,260 --> 00:15:30,500 arrays were always broken through. 269 00:15:30,740 --> 00:15:34,220 There was no premium effect that was lasting. 270 00:15:35,400 --> 00:15:39,990 But if we look at just the cot data down here, the commercials, the red 271 00:15:39,990 --> 00:15:41,729 line that was below the zero line. 272 00:15:41,729 --> 00:15:46,709 So that would be telling us to do what go short based on the traditional 273 00:15:46,709 --> 00:15:48,120 perspective of commitment of traders. 274 00:15:48,599 --> 00:15:49,530 And this is why. 275 00:15:50,105 --> 00:15:53,435 Everyone discounted Larry Williams stuff for a long, long 276 00:15:53,435 --> 00:15:55,595 time and still do to today. 277 00:15:56,165 --> 00:15:59,375 And if you look at how I'm going to show you how to use this 278 00:15:59,375 --> 00:16:04,415 information, it takes cot data to light years ahead where everyone 279 00:16:04,415 --> 00:16:05,795 else doesn't even see it like this. 280 00:16:05,795 --> 00:16:07,955 They don't even turn, they don't interpret price like this. 281 00:16:07,955 --> 00:16:11,135 They don't interpret cot data like this, but this is exactly how you 282 00:16:11,135 --> 00:16:12,965 track what their hedging programs are. 283 00:16:13,625 --> 00:16:18,885 So while they had a cell program, Because they are below the zero line or 284 00:16:19,215 --> 00:16:24,255 the zero line basis was barest because they were below zero line from January 285 00:16:24,255 --> 00:16:31,485 to February, 2016, all the way to the last or middle week of November, 2016, 286 00:16:31,485 --> 00:16:33,975 you can see that graphically with the red line going above the zero. 287 00:16:34,005 --> 00:16:42,105 So while they have a bearish or sell program going on at the time for many 288 00:16:42,105 --> 00:16:44,385 months, they were selling Heather. 289 00:16:45,225 --> 00:16:45,525 Okay. 290 00:16:45,525 --> 00:16:49,935 As the market was rallying, they were keeping sell program active, 291 00:16:49,965 --> 00:16:53,175 but you can still see institutional order flow being bullshit. 292 00:16:53,175 --> 00:16:54,525 And this is what's going to confuse some of you. 293 00:16:54,825 --> 00:16:55,185 Okay. 294 00:16:55,425 --> 00:16:58,635 We're going to cover the details later in this teaching, but for now, what 295 00:16:58,635 --> 00:17:03,015 you're focusing on primarily is was the institutional order flow telling you, it's 296 00:17:03,015 --> 00:17:07,305 going to tell you whether there's buying or selling going on by price action alone. 297 00:17:08,115 --> 00:17:11,565 What we're going to do is decipher that from a cot standpoint. 298 00:17:12,105 --> 00:17:12,454 Okay. 299 00:17:13,425 --> 00:17:16,875 That filter process, even though that the cot data is below 300 00:17:16,875 --> 00:17:19,515 the zero line for many months. 301 00:17:19,665 --> 00:17:20,085 Okay. 302 00:17:20,415 --> 00:17:25,335 We can still fair it out when the commercials step in and do aggressive 303 00:17:25,335 --> 00:17:30,435 hedging and buying, even though they're in a below zero line or a cell program, 304 00:17:30,765 --> 00:17:32,165 you can see when they get aggressive and. 305 00:17:33,510 --> 00:17:38,700 And cause price to go higher while still keeping the cot data below the zero line. 306 00:17:39,090 --> 00:17:42,600 So anyone tracking the commitment of traders report for the Japanese 307 00:17:42,600 --> 00:17:44,670 yen, they're not following along. 308 00:17:45,899 --> 00:17:47,639 In other words, it doesn't look germane to them. 309 00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:49,200 It's completely alien. 310 00:17:49,440 --> 00:17:51,899 It doesn't make any sense to the Japanese runs rallying, rallying, 311 00:17:51,899 --> 00:17:55,170 rallying, but they're holding a net short position by the commercials. 312 00:17:55,170 --> 00:17:55,889 How can that be? 313 00:17:56,129 --> 00:17:57,180 What, why is that happening? 314 00:17:57,480 --> 00:17:58,200 Well, the commercial. 315 00:17:59,540 --> 00:18:03,169 Again, they could be banks, they could be selling a currency, providing 316 00:18:03,169 --> 00:18:07,790 liquidity, all that's being reflected in these numbers as a net basis. 317 00:18:08,209 --> 00:18:11,510 So just because they're below the zero line, doesn't mean that we can't 318 00:18:11,510 --> 00:18:15,229 see buying itself as well, because it can happen on both sides of the 319 00:18:15,229 --> 00:18:21,639 marketplace, but anything above the zero line, that's obviously bullish. 320 00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:28,060 And we would have to consider anything below the zero line bearish, but 321 00:18:28,060 --> 00:18:32,470 we do not limit ourselves to just focusing on selling only below the zero 322 00:18:32,470 --> 00:18:34,330 line or buying above the zero line. 323 00:18:34,330 --> 00:18:36,970 Cause you can do both the way you decipher it is what is 324 00:18:36,970 --> 00:18:38,410 institutional order flow at the time? 325 00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:41,080 What are the conditions right now suggesting and price action. 326 00:18:41,379 --> 00:18:44,800 If bulls shorter blocks are being a supporting price, any loads, 327 00:18:44,800 --> 00:18:47,710 the Derby and taking out reject price as a stop run on sell. 328 00:18:47,710 --> 00:18:47,950 Stop. 329 00:18:48,680 --> 00:18:50,990 And then all of a sudden it rallies and breaks through will be 330 00:18:50,990 --> 00:18:52,910 otherwise deemed as a premium array. 331 00:18:53,270 --> 00:18:58,220 Then institutional order flow is, is bullish and you can see by programs, 332 00:18:58,220 --> 00:19:04,100 kick in, in a hedging program while a larger cell program is underway. 333 00:19:04,370 --> 00:19:05,480 And again, let me rephrase that. 334 00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:14,630 A larger long-term cell program can still have bullish hedging by programs in it. 335 00:19:15,710 --> 00:19:17,300 And you'll see that now as we go through. 336 00:19:18,044 --> 00:19:20,175 This segment of price action for the Japanese yen. 337 00:19:22,094 --> 00:19:22,274 Okay. 338 00:19:22,274 --> 00:19:27,165 So what I have here is I have priced trained in on that segment of price 339 00:19:27,764 --> 00:19:32,415 and I removed the large speculators line and the small speculators line. 340 00:19:33,375 --> 00:19:38,084 So that way we can highlight all of the price action by way of the net 341 00:19:38,084 --> 00:19:41,534 chairs position line chart on the commercials, which is the red line here. 342 00:19:42,915 --> 00:19:44,895 Now I want you to see how price state. 343 00:19:45,929 --> 00:19:50,159 Higher going higher, making higher highs and, and finding support at bullet 344 00:19:50,159 --> 00:19:54,330 shorter blocks, running out short-term lows and then rallying, but finding their 345 00:19:54,330 --> 00:19:57,870 way through any high or premium array. 346 00:19:58,409 --> 00:20:01,949 So the institutional order flow all the way through to the middle 347 00:20:01,949 --> 00:20:04,350 of August, going into September. 348 00:20:06,840 --> 00:20:10,020 But how do we reconcile this net short position by the commercials? 349 00:20:10,170 --> 00:20:11,340 Because they're below the zero line. 350 00:20:11,670 --> 00:20:16,590 It doesn't make any sense unless we break it down and use the six month range and 351 00:20:16,590 --> 00:20:21,120 the 12 month range idea of looking for the highest and the lowest reading on 352 00:20:21,120 --> 00:20:24,930 their net position by the commercials, we don't care about what those long-term. 353 00:20:25,780 --> 00:20:28,840 Uh, speculators that, uh, are in a blue line. 354 00:20:28,870 --> 00:20:30,040 We don't care about the small specks. 355 00:20:30,040 --> 00:20:31,719 We don't care about the large specs. 356 00:20:31,750 --> 00:20:35,080 We're only caring about what the actions of this red line is because it's going 357 00:20:35,080 --> 00:20:39,040 to show us and reflect what their hedging program is at the current time. 358 00:20:39,699 --> 00:20:42,699 So anytime when you're looking at cot data, you want to look at where 359 00:20:42,699 --> 00:20:44,050 we're at right now and go back 60. 360 00:20:44,970 --> 00:20:46,530 Because there's your six month hedging program. 361 00:20:46,740 --> 00:20:48,810 They have a 12 months housing program. 362 00:20:49,110 --> 00:20:53,160 So by blending, the two, you can get short-term quarterly effect trades. 363 00:20:53,490 --> 00:20:53,970 Now thank you. 364 00:20:53,970 --> 00:20:54,810 We talked about that. 365 00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:57,060 There's quarterly effects every three or four months. 366 00:20:57,060 --> 00:21:01,410 There's a shift in market structure in the market trades in a sustained 367 00:21:01,410 --> 00:21:05,700 move for about two and a half months or so maybe three months. 368 00:21:06,870 --> 00:21:10,410 But every quarter or so of the year, there's a shift in market structuring. 369 00:21:10,470 --> 00:21:14,490 And this helps you find that by looking at the six month range of 370 00:21:14,490 --> 00:21:17,520 the highest high and lowest low of the commercial net position has been, 371 00:21:19,590 --> 00:21:21,480 that is seen with this shaded area. 372 00:21:21,510 --> 00:21:25,290 She can see the highest high and the lowest low is being basically 373 00:21:25,290 --> 00:21:26,580 blocked out with that shaded area. 374 00:21:26,610 --> 00:21:28,490 So once you know what that is, you divide that. 375 00:21:29,520 --> 00:21:35,040 You get that range so we can go back 12 months and in six months and it rolls. 376 00:21:35,669 --> 00:21:39,240 But in here you can see how the net positions have stayed in a very 377 00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:44,189 tight range, even that can tell us a goldmine worth of information. 378 00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:48,210 Look what suddenly happens when you decipher the information like. 379 00:21:49,050 --> 00:21:51,000 You do not see cot data like this. 380 00:21:51,000 --> 00:21:53,370 And Larry Williams doesn't even do this with cot data. 381 00:21:53,940 --> 00:21:58,260 This is something that I looked at price forever, and I knew there was 382 00:21:58,260 --> 00:21:59,700 something going on behind the scenes. 383 00:22:00,180 --> 00:22:04,620 And I literally said, you know, what, if price can trade and trading right. 384 00:22:06,055 --> 00:22:10,645 So can this information, but if they're going to be doing buying 385 00:22:10,645 --> 00:22:12,685 and selling, it can't be hidden. 386 00:22:12,895 --> 00:22:14,575 If that's true, I should see it. 387 00:22:14,735 --> 00:22:21,445 If I look at the data in terms of the range for time, remember IPTA well, I 388 00:22:21,445 --> 00:22:25,855 applied similar things to this, so I looked at six month intervals and 12 389 00:22:25,855 --> 00:22:28,075 month intervals, three month intervals. 390 00:22:28,815 --> 00:22:31,905 For four months, sorry, four year intervals. 391 00:22:32,235 --> 00:22:34,725 Three-year intervals, two-year intervals, one-year interval 392 00:22:34,995 --> 00:22:36,255 and in six month intervals. 393 00:22:37,785 --> 00:22:40,305 So if you go back through the data and you'd look at it like that, 394 00:22:40,305 --> 00:22:44,115 you'll get a clearer depiction of what the commercials are actually doing. 395 00:22:44,895 --> 00:22:48,285 Now, if you look at these green little nodules in here, okay. 396 00:22:48,375 --> 00:22:52,305 Even though that were below the zero line by determining the total range in 397 00:22:52,305 --> 00:22:54,045 the last six months and the last 12. 398 00:22:55,064 --> 00:22:58,995 We can get every time their hedging program kicks in, even though there's 399 00:22:58,995 --> 00:23:03,044 a larger cell program is underway by keeping the net positions below zero, 400 00:23:04,004 --> 00:23:07,245 their hedging program can be deciphered by looking at these little nodules. 401 00:23:07,425 --> 00:23:11,264 Once you determine the range, the first one here, you can see 402 00:23:11,264 --> 00:23:13,155 how all that bind took place. 403 00:23:14,084 --> 00:23:17,264 The second one here, you see where they made a low they're bought off 404 00:23:17,264 --> 00:23:21,725 of a bullish or block that was seen in the last week of April filling in. 405 00:23:23,340 --> 00:23:26,429 And we had this area here where they were buying again, after we've taken 406 00:23:26,429 --> 00:23:31,320 out a short-term low that was seen in the last week of June and price resumed, 407 00:23:31,350 --> 00:23:35,120 but then found long-term resistance at that 1.00 level, which we'll look at 408 00:23:35,159 --> 00:23:36,689 the last slide of this presentation. 409 00:23:36,870 --> 00:23:39,810 And you'll see why clearly that had a struggling point there and were finally 410 00:23:39,810 --> 00:23:46,530 reversed by breaking a short-term low only after trading at that 1.0 level, a 411 00:23:46,530 --> 00:23:50,159 few times, failing to get above it and finally breaking market structure to. 412 00:23:51,060 --> 00:23:51,660 Downside. 413 00:23:52,020 --> 00:23:55,860 And then you can see the commercials finally started building up a larger 414 00:23:56,580 --> 00:23:59,310 net, long position above the airline. 415 00:23:59,310 --> 00:24:01,410 So there's the airline basis is now bullish. 416 00:24:01,770 --> 00:24:05,190 So now they're in a buy program, but they're going to be hedging early. 417 00:24:05,340 --> 00:24:08,520 They start doing it early, but they make the highs and the 418 00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:09,450 lows and the markets by doing. 419 00:24:12,665 --> 00:24:17,495 So now we're looking at the last week or so of November of 2016, 420 00:24:17,885 --> 00:24:18,965 all the way to present time. 421 00:24:19,715 --> 00:24:23,765 And again, I'm going to counsel you to look at what the cot data looks like by 422 00:24:23,765 --> 00:24:29,405 plotting a net traded physician, a line chart as everyone else would do with 423 00:24:29,405 --> 00:24:32,885 it, with the information that you would get with a commitment trades reports. 424 00:24:34,085 --> 00:24:34,865 This is what it looked like. 425 00:24:34,865 --> 00:24:36,095 If you zoomed in on a daily chart. 426 00:24:36,635 --> 00:24:38,705 And again, it doesn't tell you much except for it. 427 00:24:38,705 --> 00:24:38,945 Doesn't it. 428 00:24:39,930 --> 00:24:43,380 And granted they have been sending the Japanese yen higher as a result of that. 429 00:24:43,800 --> 00:24:45,720 But what was institutional order flow as well? 430 00:24:46,560 --> 00:24:47,880 Our down candle supporting price. 431 00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:52,530 When it trades back down to it are up-close candles being broken as PDA. 432 00:24:52,530 --> 00:24:54,930 Rays are old highs being taken out. 433 00:24:55,230 --> 00:24:59,250 And are we seeing support by price moving down into what would 434 00:24:59,250 --> 00:25:00,510 be otherwise a discount rate? 435 00:25:00,930 --> 00:25:01,500 Yes. 436 00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:04,200 We're seeing that all throughout this entire price segment 437 00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:07,530 from the mid point of January. 438 00:25:08,475 --> 00:25:12,584 I'm sorry, the midpoint of December going into January, where we made that 439 00:25:12,584 --> 00:25:15,945 turning point now commercials have really moved to a net long position. 440 00:25:16,155 --> 00:25:19,935 Now they're in a buy program, but now because we're in a buy program, 441 00:25:19,935 --> 00:25:21,465 does that mean it can't sell off? 442 00:25:21,495 --> 00:25:24,794 Now they can have selloffs, but we're going to focus primarily on what 443 00:25:24,794 --> 00:25:27,165 is the range the last six months. 444 00:25:27,495 --> 00:25:27,945 Okay. 445 00:25:27,975 --> 00:25:29,745 Of the commercial activity. 446 00:25:30,074 --> 00:25:31,995 But first we got to focus on what that looks like. 447 00:25:33,030 --> 00:25:35,640 We're going to take everything down to just the commercial line. 448 00:25:36,150 --> 00:25:40,380 And I removed the small specs line and the large speculators did not manipulate the 449 00:25:40,380 --> 00:25:42,630 price or do anything with the indicator. 450 00:25:42,780 --> 00:25:45,240 All I did was erase everything with paint so that we can 451 00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:46,410 clearly see what's going on. 452 00:25:47,790 --> 00:25:51,030 I want you to look at, by taking the information, determined that the 453 00:25:51,030 --> 00:25:54,630 highest high and the lowest low in the range, the finding that basis 454 00:25:54,630 --> 00:25:56,790 line creating its own new basis line. 455 00:25:57,120 --> 00:26:01,680 We can see where the buying kicks in and you see nodules kicking in. 456 00:26:02,475 --> 00:26:06,405 In January, we can see one in mid-March and we can see 457 00:26:06,405 --> 00:26:07,995 one in the last week of may. 458 00:26:08,475 --> 00:26:10,814 And those are the respective time periods where the market sees 459 00:26:10,814 --> 00:26:17,324 the greatest advances in price going higher all through here. 460 00:26:17,895 --> 00:26:20,504 Market was bullish all through here. 461 00:26:20,985 --> 00:26:22,215 We're currently bullish as well. 462 00:26:22,335 --> 00:26:26,625 If you look at the price of Japanese yen right now and go to the left in the last 463 00:26:26,895 --> 00:26:30,405 week of April this year, you can see there's a fair value gap up there at 91. 464 00:26:31,230 --> 00:26:35,040 So it kind of gives you an insight about where we think based on what we're 465 00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:38,520 talking about here, where a Japanese gym might go, at least on the short term, 466 00:26:39,180 --> 00:26:43,710 and we're using the hedging program as outlined here as a basis for that. 467 00:26:46,110 --> 00:26:49,860 So when we look at commercial hedging, we're not looking just at 468 00:26:49,860 --> 00:26:53,700 whether a net loss, net short, but that does give us the buyer sole 469 00:26:53,710 --> 00:26:54,840 program that they're operating in. 470 00:26:55,110 --> 00:26:56,430 But inside that buy and sell. 471 00:26:57,659 --> 00:26:59,030 Or buy and sell program. 472 00:26:59,120 --> 00:26:59,879 I say it like that. 473 00:27:00,300 --> 00:27:04,950 There are hedging programs that go on because their nature of their speculation 474 00:27:04,950 --> 00:27:09,330 in the marketplace is to lock in good prices for their manufacturing of 475 00:27:09,330 --> 00:27:15,090 commodity or a good, and to do that efficiently, they have to make sure 476 00:27:15,090 --> 00:27:18,840 prices are obtained at very discount or. 477 00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:20,730 Friendly levels. 478 00:27:21,060 --> 00:27:22,050 You know, you don't want to be buying. 479 00:27:22,050 --> 00:27:24,629 If you're Kirsha, you don't need to be buying cocoa later on. 480 00:27:24,629 --> 00:27:27,020 When you've already seen fundamentals are suggesting is going to be higher 481 00:27:27,040 --> 00:27:28,320 six months from now or a year from now. 482 00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:30,389 You're not going to be doing all your buying. 483 00:27:30,389 --> 00:27:32,540 Then you're going to allocate a lot more money. 484 00:27:33,360 --> 00:27:36,000 To buy ups, uh, stock for that. 485 00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:40,320 So that way, when prices go higher, you've made a better return on your 486 00:27:40,320 --> 00:27:42,000 investment and keeps costs low. 487 00:27:42,330 --> 00:27:44,159 And that's the nature of, of hedging. 488 00:27:44,399 --> 00:27:46,770 So the same thing happens with the banks and lending institutions. 489 00:27:47,070 --> 00:27:49,889 You know, the value of, of money is going to be fluctuating all the time. 490 00:27:50,310 --> 00:27:54,389 So they're trained accredited staffs that do those types of things. 491 00:27:55,139 --> 00:27:57,600 They will invest in buy and sell based on. 492 00:27:59,310 --> 00:28:01,710 Notions that they're supplying to manufacturers that they 493 00:28:02,129 --> 00:28:03,570 have an assessment on. 494 00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:05,129 I'm not smart enough to know what they are. 495 00:28:05,190 --> 00:28:06,300 I've never claimed to know that. 496 00:28:06,330 --> 00:28:07,740 And you're never going to know that from me. 497 00:28:07,740 --> 00:28:11,430 Cause I don't know it personally, but I can see what they're doing graphically 498 00:28:11,430 --> 00:28:12,570 and they can't hide it from me. 499 00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:16,590 And now, because I've shared it with you, you can do the same thing. 500 00:28:16,590 --> 00:28:19,350 There's nothing that they can, they can't hide from you. 501 00:28:19,379 --> 00:28:20,670 This there's nothing to worry about. 502 00:28:20,790 --> 00:28:23,790 They're not gonna be able to hide in the future because you now know how to do it. 503 00:28:23,820 --> 00:28:25,860 It's just the data. 504 00:28:26,850 --> 00:28:30,000 Well, Larry Williams back in the seventies and sixties, you know, he had 505 00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:33,689 it figured out then, but only at extremes. 506 00:28:33,990 --> 00:28:36,360 And that's what I'm going to say in closing here. 507 00:28:36,689 --> 00:28:39,959 When we look at the commitment of traders report and we plot it on 508 00:28:40,020 --> 00:28:44,429 a, uh, traders, uh, basis, whether it's a net long, a net short on the 509 00:28:44,429 --> 00:28:48,480 commercials, if we get to a four year extreme or a two year extreme or 12 510 00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:52,260 month extreme, generally there's usually a long-term trend reversal at play. 511 00:28:52,679 --> 00:28:55,290 And the commercial will sometimes factor that in with their own. 512 00:28:56,235 --> 00:29:01,455 Uh, movements in the marketplace by having those extremes, we will discount 513 00:29:01,455 --> 00:29:02,955 any short-term hedging program. 514 00:29:03,284 --> 00:29:08,385 If we get to a four year, two year or a one-year extreme of the highest high 515 00:29:08,564 --> 00:29:10,064 and the lowest low their net positions. 516 00:29:11,534 --> 00:29:14,655 But let's look at this segment here again, a little bit closer where the 517 00:29:14,655 --> 00:29:16,004 commercials were below the zero line. 518 00:29:17,070 --> 00:29:19,230 And this section over here where they're above is your aligned. 519 00:29:19,770 --> 00:29:21,810 When we see those conditions, okay. 520 00:29:21,870 --> 00:29:25,890 The red line, that's a cell program, the red shaded area, when it's like that below 521 00:29:25,890 --> 00:29:27,600 the zero line, that is a cell program. 522 00:29:28,090 --> 00:29:31,200 Doesn't mean you can't see buying going on, but you have to look at in the form 523 00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:35,010 of the hedging program that goes on, look for the small, short term ranges. 524 00:29:35,010 --> 00:29:37,830 And when they go above the new range that you would define, as we just 525 00:29:37,830 --> 00:29:41,970 mentioned an outline a moment ago, you can see where they're buying and selling 526 00:29:41,970 --> 00:29:44,940 is taking place below the zero line. 527 00:29:44,970 --> 00:29:45,840 The best conditions. 528 00:29:47,190 --> 00:29:48,150 Looking for shorts. 529 00:29:48,540 --> 00:29:52,140 That means if you can get institutional order flow bearish, you want to look 530 00:29:52,140 --> 00:29:56,340 for net short positions about the commercials and at premium erase. 531 00:29:56,340 --> 00:30:00,720 And that would be the ideal scenario, but you can still get by hedging programs 532 00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:03,540 inside that long-term sole program. 533 00:30:03,900 --> 00:30:07,160 And I know this is going to convince, uh, confused some of you, but you're 534 00:30:07,170 --> 00:30:09,660 gonna have to watch this video several different times because you're going 535 00:30:09,660 --> 00:30:12,780 to see by looking at it multiple times. 536 00:30:13,950 --> 00:30:18,870 You'll see that there's two factors taking place here, longterm buy and 537 00:30:18,870 --> 00:30:21,870 sell programs based on the zero line, whether they're above or below it. 538 00:30:22,290 --> 00:30:27,360 And then they hedge even during those periods, because they're not just buying 539 00:30:27,370 --> 00:30:30,270 all one-time selling all at one time, they're moving back and forth in the 540 00:30:30,270 --> 00:30:32,070 marketplace around specific price levels. 541 00:30:32,520 --> 00:30:37,290 When they create these nodules and the hedging program, those levels 542 00:30:37,290 --> 00:30:39,120 are significant in the future. 543 00:30:39,600 --> 00:30:42,150 They're going to be key price points as a PD. 544 00:30:43,515 --> 00:30:47,445 Make sure you have that in your charts and note them by using a cot edging 545 00:30:47,445 --> 00:30:50,745 program technique that I just taught you here in the green shaded area. 546 00:30:50,745 --> 00:30:54,705 That is ideally going to be seeing the best buys when the market 547 00:30:54,705 --> 00:30:57,945 is creating discount rates and institutional or flows bullish. 548 00:30:58,185 --> 00:31:02,385 But it doesn't mean you can't be selling short when the short-term six 549 00:31:02,385 --> 00:31:05,875 month or 12 month range indicates that the commercials are net short and. 550 00:31:06,764 --> 00:31:07,635 Adjusted range. 551 00:31:08,205 --> 00:31:11,055 As in other words, we looked at the last, highest high and lowest low 552 00:31:11,325 --> 00:31:12,555 in the last six months at 12 months. 553 00:31:12,615 --> 00:31:16,425 Even if they're above the zero line while that's a bullish by program 554 00:31:16,425 --> 00:31:21,014 long-term they could still be doing short term selling hedging programs in 555 00:31:21,014 --> 00:31:23,055 there, and it causes price to go lower. 556 00:31:23,295 --> 00:31:26,655 But you have to look at things in terms of blending, three different things. 557 00:31:26,655 --> 00:31:28,995 You're looking at the program of buying. 558 00:31:29,825 --> 00:31:32,825 Whether they're above or below the airline, then you look at the hedging 559 00:31:32,825 --> 00:31:36,515 program based on the range of the highest high and lowest low of the commercials in 560 00:31:36,515 --> 00:31:40,715 the last six months and last 12 months, and then using institutional order flow. 561 00:31:40,715 --> 00:31:42,125 What is price telling you? 562 00:31:42,605 --> 00:31:46,175 Is it respecting discounted rates or premium arrays? 563 00:31:47,405 --> 00:31:49,775 And by blending those things, you can get to the truth of what 564 00:31:49,775 --> 00:31:50,765 the market's actually doing. 565 00:31:50,765 --> 00:31:54,125 And you'll know what institutional order flow is with the greatest of. 566 00:31:57,250 --> 00:31:59,139 So commercial heading hedging programs. 567 00:31:59,350 --> 00:32:02,889 You know, if commercials are above or below the net sum, zero aligned, both 568 00:32:02,889 --> 00:32:04,149 sides of the market can be trading. 569 00:32:05,649 --> 00:32:08,290 The current range of the commercials net position is referred. 570 00:32:10,764 --> 00:32:14,754 If institutional order flow is bullish, we're going to be blending discount, PDA 571 00:32:14,754 --> 00:32:20,455 rays, and the last 12 or six month net, long commercial readings for long trades. 572 00:32:20,814 --> 00:32:23,274 Now, again, that's when we see those little bullish 573 00:32:23,304 --> 00:32:25,465 nodules in new defined range. 574 00:32:25,645 --> 00:32:29,365 Again, this can be ideally seeing when we're above the zero. 575 00:32:31,315 --> 00:32:33,925 If institutional order flow is bearish, we're going to be blending 576 00:32:33,925 --> 00:32:37,975 premium PD arrays and the 12 or six month range of the net short 577 00:32:38,005 --> 00:32:40,345 commercial readings for short trades. 578 00:32:42,325 --> 00:32:46,585 The best conditions are seen when both net some basis agree with institutional 579 00:32:46,585 --> 00:32:48,745 order flow and PDA rate matrix conflict. 580 00:32:52,735 --> 00:32:56,875 The long-term commercial activity, the net sum zero line delineates, 581 00:32:56,875 --> 00:32:59,095 the net buying and or net selling. 582 00:32:59,725 --> 00:33:03,294 Now retail traders that know about the net trader physician chart only 583 00:33:03,294 --> 00:33:06,955 look at whether commercials are net long for bullishness or net short 584 00:33:06,955 --> 00:33:08,034 for bearishness on the market. 585 00:33:08,875 --> 00:33:13,105 The smart money can be tracked by focusing on the 12 month and six month. 586 00:33:14,205 --> 00:33:15,435 Uh, the commercial net position. 587 00:33:16,185 --> 00:33:19,064 Get the commercials are above net's zero line. 588 00:33:19,335 --> 00:33:22,784 We're gonna be focusing on the 12 to six month net long readings. 589 00:33:23,595 --> 00:33:26,835 If commercials are below this airline, we're gonna be focusing on a 12 or 590 00:33:26,835 --> 00:33:29,205 six month range net short position. 591 00:33:30,120 --> 00:33:34,710 We blamed these conditions with PDA Ray matrix and institutional order flow for 592 00:33:34,710 --> 00:33:36,810 optimal results and directional analysis. 593 00:33:36,900 --> 00:33:42,060 So with this teaching, what we've done is we were able to decipher what the 594 00:33:42,060 --> 00:33:46,560 commercial actions are, whether they're buying or selling and not relying so much 595 00:33:46,590 --> 00:33:50,370 on whether they're below or above a zero line as everyone else interprets price. 596 00:33:50,670 --> 00:33:55,920 Using this information, looking at that level here, we can see 597 00:33:55,920 --> 00:33:58,680 how price went back to the 2014. 598 00:34:00,600 --> 00:34:05,909 January highs and July highs and cleared out as equal highs and fell 599 00:34:05,909 --> 00:34:11,040 short from that position all the way down to a level that was seen as a 600 00:34:11,219 --> 00:34:17,130 discount array in the January, 2016 time period, this is the weekly chart. 601 00:34:17,159 --> 00:34:21,690 So everything that we teach in terms of res institutional order 602 00:34:21,690 --> 00:34:25,500 flow, all those things get blended together to get optimal results. 603 00:34:25,770 --> 00:34:28,139 And now you entered the inner circle as it relates to. 604 00:34:29,070 --> 00:34:33,000 Hedging commercial activity and cot until next time I wish 605 00:34:33,000 --> 00:34:34,199 you good luck and good trading. 54426

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