Would you like to inspect the original subtitles? These are the user uploaded subtitles that are being translated:
1
00:00:08,390 --> 00:00:10,730
When we talk about the commodity
markets is very important that you
2
00:00:10,730 --> 00:00:16,010
read just disclaimers everything that's
being discussed in this segment of our
3
00:00:16,010 --> 00:00:18,890
discussion on commodities, any trade.
4
00:00:20,174 --> 00:00:25,455
Discussion or idea or concept
should be viewed in the light of a
5
00:00:25,455 --> 00:00:27,104
paper trade, not an actual trade.
6
00:00:27,494 --> 00:00:30,615
I'm not a CTA, so I'm not licensed to
get trade advice about commodities,
7
00:00:31,154 --> 00:00:34,575
but I'm sharing ideas on how I've
looked at the commodity market over
8
00:00:34,575 --> 00:00:38,655
the last 20 plus years and where I've
seen consistency, finding directional
9
00:00:38,655 --> 00:00:41,084
bias and support resistance ideas.
10
00:00:48,825 --> 00:00:49,365
Okay.
11
00:00:49,815 --> 00:00:50,055
All right.
12
00:00:50,055 --> 00:00:54,645
So we are in the first of the
June, 2017 content ICT mentorship.
13
00:00:55,155 --> 00:00:58,545
Uh, it says ICT commodity trading
lesson, one commitment of traders.
14
00:00:58,755 --> 00:00:59,505
How I use the.
15
00:01:01,815 --> 00:01:02,295
Okay.
16
00:01:02,895 --> 00:01:05,444
And the first thing we're gonna
be looking at is the raw data.
17
00:01:05,444 --> 00:01:09,495
Now, when we look at the commitment
of traders report, uh, what is that?
18
00:01:09,555 --> 00:01:14,445
Well, the all data comes by way of a
weekly report released by the CFTC.
19
00:01:14,775 --> 00:01:19,155
And you can find this on www dot CFTC gov.
20
00:01:20,295 --> 00:01:23,445
And what you want to look for is you
want to be looking at the futures
21
00:01:23,445 --> 00:01:25,815
contract only in the short format.
22
00:01:26,355 --> 00:01:29,235
And if you do this under the CME,
which is the Chicago Marketo.
23
00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:33,210
Uh, we can find the currencies
that trade as calm dolls.
24
00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:37,080
And one of the calm
dolls are Japanese yen.
25
00:01:37,650 --> 00:01:42,720
And this is the most recent short
format commitment of traders
26
00:01:42,720 --> 00:01:44,250
report for the Japanese yen.
27
00:01:45,660 --> 00:01:48,870
As you see here, this is just for
the Japanese yen futures contract.
28
00:01:48,870 --> 00:01:52,770
Now the CFTC website gives you
the opportunity to pull up the.
29
00:01:53,970 --> 00:01:54,929
Positions as well.
30
00:01:54,990 --> 00:01:56,520
I'm not concerning myself with that.
31
00:01:56,520 --> 00:01:58,110
I never concerned myself with that at all.
32
00:01:58,530 --> 00:02:03,179
I look at only the futures positions
and you want to be looking in the center
33
00:02:03,179 --> 00:02:04,979
column here, where it says commercial.
34
00:02:06,690 --> 00:02:09,150
And when you see that commercial
area, it's going to give you a little
35
00:02:09,780 --> 00:02:13,470
column that says long to the left
and in short to the right directly,
36
00:02:13,470 --> 00:02:20,850
underneath that long column, you'll
see that there is 143,450 contracts.
37
00:02:21,210 --> 00:02:22,859
That's the commercial long position.
38
00:02:24,720 --> 00:02:27,180
And then to the right of that
underneath the short column,
39
00:02:27,840 --> 00:02:31,830
it's 76,426 contract short.
40
00:02:32,640 --> 00:02:35,760
The way we get the net position
is we subtract the two to get to.
41
00:02:36,780 --> 00:02:38,850
And if it's a positive
number, it's net long.
42
00:02:38,850 --> 00:02:40,560
If it's a negative number it's net short.
43
00:02:40,890 --> 00:02:48,030
In this case, we have 67,024 contracts
long that by the difference between the
44
00:02:48,030 --> 00:02:49,340
long positions and the short positions.
45
00:02:49,340 --> 00:02:55,470
So there's, uh, a net long
position of 67,024 contracts long.
46
00:02:56,760 --> 00:03:01,860
Now, basically this tells us nothing
about their current hedging program.
47
00:03:02,310 --> 00:03:05,100
So what we had to do is have to look
deeper and go behind the numbers and
48
00:03:05,100 --> 00:03:06,330
see what it is they've been doing.
49
00:03:11,400 --> 00:03:11,790
Okay.
50
00:03:11,820 --> 00:03:13,590
Net tres position line chart.
51
00:03:14,130 --> 00:03:17,850
And with this chart, we can track
the three main classes of traders.
52
00:03:19,620 --> 00:03:24,120
And again, you would find
this on www.bar chart.com.
53
00:03:24,120 --> 00:03:25,380
You see me use it many times in the.
54
00:03:27,375 --> 00:03:29,835
And what you're gonna be doing is
going to be plotting a daily chart.
55
00:03:30,165 --> 00:03:34,704
And you'll be including in the indicator
portion on the bottom of the chart,
56
00:03:34,704 --> 00:03:39,435
you're going to be adding the net
traders physician line chart and the
57
00:03:39,435 --> 00:03:42,675
duration you want to be displaying as at
least one year's worth of price action.
58
00:03:45,165 --> 00:03:49,394
And the commercial traders are typically
on bar trot.com shown as the red line
59
00:03:49,515 --> 00:03:53,655
at the bottom of the chart, the large
traders are shown as in a green.
60
00:03:54,630 --> 00:03:58,320
And the small speculators are
always shown in as a blue line.
61
00:03:59,340 --> 00:04:04,380
But when we look at this price
action against the net traded
62
00:04:04,380 --> 00:04:07,920
position line chart, I want
you to visually see the hedging
63
00:04:07,920 --> 00:04:09,390
programs by the commercial traders.
64
00:04:09,930 --> 00:04:14,760
Now, when I first got into trading,
obviously my mentor was Larry
65
00:04:14,760 --> 00:04:18,720
Williams, much like everyone else
that's ever come across as material.
66
00:04:19,260 --> 00:04:20,310
He's like the godfather.
67
00:04:20,310 --> 00:04:21,750
If you will, of the cot.
68
00:04:22,845 --> 00:04:26,835
So everything he mentioned in his 1970
book, how I made a million dollars
69
00:04:26,835 --> 00:04:30,975
trading commodities last year using the
commercial information that was like
70
00:04:32,415 --> 00:04:33,795
light years ahead of everything else.
71
00:04:34,395 --> 00:04:37,965
Naturally, everyone flocked to,
to just looking at whether the
72
00:04:37,965 --> 00:04:39,255
commercials are net long or.
73
00:04:41,429 --> 00:04:42,359
Much like everyone else.
74
00:04:42,390 --> 00:04:46,200
I found out by trial and
error that it isn't that easy.
75
00:04:46,200 --> 00:04:48,210
You got to go in there
and do some more research.
76
00:04:48,630 --> 00:04:52,859
Uh, I thought clearly by looking at
the commercials, uh, if, if they were
77
00:04:52,859 --> 00:04:57,989
buying to therefore, I had to be a
buyer too, but because their nature of
78
00:04:58,020 --> 00:05:02,400
what they are as a, as a participant
in the marketplace, they are usual.
79
00:05:03,570 --> 00:05:10,290
Large corporate producers or users
of commodities and commodities.
80
00:05:10,290 --> 00:05:11,760
Like a calm dial is the same thing.
81
00:05:12,060 --> 00:05:15,659
Uh, currencies are a commodity they're
they're they're bought and sold.
82
00:05:15,840 --> 00:05:21,030
They're provided for, in terms of
allowing global commerce, um, you
83
00:05:21,030 --> 00:05:26,190
know, providing loans, uh, making
transactions all over the world.
84
00:05:26,370 --> 00:05:29,550
And because there's a difference
of all these countries around
85
00:05:29,550 --> 00:05:30,780
the world, there's going to be.
86
00:05:32,085 --> 00:05:35,804
Change from one currency to the
other to do business or make
87
00:05:35,804 --> 00:05:37,125
transactions in another country.
88
00:05:37,635 --> 00:05:42,914
So just like we would look at, for
instance, like Coco for Hershey, where
89
00:05:42,914 --> 00:05:49,784
they make a large, um, uh, production of
chocolate every day, their number one.
90
00:05:51,075 --> 00:05:53,175
Ingredient is sugar and cocoa.
91
00:05:53,445 --> 00:05:57,345
So if we follow those
commodities, you naturally cook.
92
00:05:57,495 --> 00:06:01,035
Coco is going to have a lot of
fundamental supply and demand
93
00:06:01,035 --> 00:06:02,175
factors that go along with it.
94
00:06:02,715 --> 00:06:04,725
And Hershey is going to have
a trained, accredited staff to
95
00:06:04,725 --> 00:06:05,815
track all those things that.
96
00:06:06,620 --> 00:06:11,510
You keep a closer eye on whether the
price is really cheap or expensive.
97
00:06:11,750 --> 00:06:14,390
And if they think it's gonna be
expensive in the near future, they're
98
00:06:14,390 --> 00:06:17,030
gonna be much more aggressive about
buying it because they want to lock
99
00:06:17,030 --> 00:06:19,940
in lower prices because they know at
a later time, prices will go higher.
100
00:06:20,210 --> 00:06:21,920
The same thing occurs with currencies.
101
00:06:21,950 --> 00:06:28,100
So if we look at the net chairs position
line chart, it gives us a graphic
102
00:06:28,100 --> 00:06:31,370
depiction of the overall net basis.
103
00:06:31,880 --> 00:06:35,120
In other words, are they above the
zero line or below this airline?
104
00:06:36,885 --> 00:06:37,545
By itself.
105
00:06:37,545 --> 00:06:38,685
It doesn't mean anything.
106
00:06:38,715 --> 00:06:43,035
But when we look at the information a
little bit closer in a different light,
107
00:06:43,245 --> 00:06:46,605
you'll have a lot better understanding
about what they're doing as a hedger.
108
00:06:49,575 --> 00:06:51,315
So that brings us to
the commercial hedging.
109
00:06:51,825 --> 00:06:55,875
So naturally, if we pull up a bar
chart.com chart of the Japanese
110
00:06:55,875 --> 00:07:00,915
yen, and you put the net traders
in line chart, one, the chart
111
00:07:00,915 --> 00:07:04,005
itself with about one year's worth
of data, this is what you get.
112
00:07:04,725 --> 00:07:05,025
So.
113
00:07:06,240 --> 00:07:08,250
By itself again, it
means absolutely nothing.
114
00:07:08,520 --> 00:07:17,220
You can see between today's present date
of June 5th, 2017, and December of 2016.
115
00:07:17,790 --> 00:07:20,580
The commercials, the red line
at the bottom of the chart shows
116
00:07:20,580 --> 00:07:25,680
that red line above the zero line,
that zero line delineates, whether
117
00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:27,450
we're net long or net short.
118
00:07:28,275 --> 00:07:34,125
So if that red line is above the zero line
from December, 2016, to present time June,
119
00:07:34,125 --> 00:07:39,165
2017, that means that the commercials
have been net long for over six months.
120
00:07:40,095 --> 00:07:42,075
So what does that mean?
121
00:07:42,075 --> 00:07:46,335
You buy all only just buy doesn't
mean you just buy there's other things
122
00:07:46,335 --> 00:07:50,625
you have to look at, but by itself it
means that they are in a buy program.
123
00:07:51,165 --> 00:07:51,375
Okay.
124
00:07:51,375 --> 00:07:54,075
So there's a buy program and
then it's hedging programs.
125
00:07:54,465 --> 00:07:56,115
The buy program is a.
126
00:07:57,120 --> 00:08:02,700
Macro perspective or macro program where
they focus the bulk of their buying.
127
00:08:03,300 --> 00:08:06,960
And while they'll hedge and sell
some, there'll be hedging in prices
128
00:08:06,960 --> 00:08:12,780
by selling the shorter-term by program
129
00:08:15,780 --> 00:08:20,490
can be seen by looking at
the 12 to six month duration.
130
00:08:20,490 --> 00:08:24,240
So in other words, we look back a year
to see what they've done, the highest.
131
00:08:25,185 --> 00:08:30,075
Net long position and the lowest net
long position they've had and the
132
00:08:30,165 --> 00:08:34,695
lowest net short position and the
highest net short position they've had.
133
00:08:35,085 --> 00:08:37,905
So we break the market
down in two categories.
134
00:08:38,175 --> 00:08:42,044
What was their action above
that zero line as a whole?
135
00:08:42,075 --> 00:08:45,075
What was the highest reading and the
lowest reading while above the zero line.
136
00:08:45,585 --> 00:08:47,565
And what was the highest reading
and the lowest reading below the.
137
00:08:48,719 --> 00:08:51,270
So there's a buy program when
they're above the zero line and a
138
00:08:51,270 --> 00:08:52,500
cell program when they're below it.
139
00:08:52,800 --> 00:08:56,040
But there's also hedging that goes
on commercial hedging programs
140
00:08:56,430 --> 00:08:57,900
that we need to be aware of.
141
00:08:57,900 --> 00:09:01,260
And you can check them by using
this information, but you have
142
00:09:01,260 --> 00:09:02,400
to look at it differently.
143
00:09:02,489 --> 00:09:04,829
You can't look at it like this
because this is what retail sees.
144
00:09:05,459 --> 00:09:09,390
Obviously retail, isn't going to
have the true perspective on what
145
00:09:09,390 --> 00:09:12,119
price is doing from a commercial
or institutional perspective.
146
00:09:12,449 --> 00:09:15,900
So what I have to do is change your
perspective on how we look at it.
147
00:09:16,170 --> 00:09:17,130
So let's take a look at it closely.
148
00:09:18,525 --> 00:09:19,095
So, okay.
149
00:09:19,115 --> 00:09:20,985
When we're focusing on here
is the bottom of the chart.
150
00:09:21,345 --> 00:09:25,035
These three lines here again,
they represent the green line is
151
00:09:25,035 --> 00:09:28,875
the large speculators, big, large
funds or big private traders that
152
00:09:28,875 --> 00:09:30,405
have a lot of, uh, position size.
153
00:09:30,765 --> 00:09:32,115
Small speculators is the blue line.
154
00:09:32,115 --> 00:09:33,675
That's usually the, uh, the public.
155
00:09:33,675 --> 00:09:35,565
They have no idea what's going on and in.
156
00:09:36,630 --> 00:09:42,390
Commercials or large speculators, uh,
in terms of like a commercial user or
157
00:09:42,390 --> 00:09:46,860
producer of a commodity in this case,
if it's a bank or lending institution,
158
00:09:47,190 --> 00:09:48,780
uh, they would be in that red line.
159
00:09:49,620 --> 00:09:51,540
So that red line is really what
we're going to be tracking.
160
00:09:51,780 --> 00:09:52,950
We're only interested in that line.
161
00:09:52,950 --> 00:09:55,320
We don't care what the green line
is because it's always going to
162
00:09:55,320 --> 00:09:59,330
be diametrically opposed to the
actions or positions of that, the
163
00:09:59,330 --> 00:10:02,250
red line and the blue line we could
care less about because that's the
164
00:10:02,370 --> 00:10:03,930
new street money, less informed.
165
00:10:05,310 --> 00:10:08,100
So, what I've done here
is I've removed okay.
166
00:10:08,100 --> 00:10:13,800
By way of paint and you can do this if
you want to, but it's not necessary once
167
00:10:13,800 --> 00:10:17,459
you understand the procedure or process
that you go through by looking at price,
168
00:10:17,850 --> 00:10:19,890
you won't need to do this over time.
169
00:10:19,920 --> 00:10:22,350
You're just your, I will be trained
to be able to look at this and
170
00:10:22,380 --> 00:10:23,520
be able to see it on its own.
171
00:10:23,699 --> 00:10:25,800
And you'll know, just by looking
at a standard traditional
172
00:10:26,069 --> 00:10:28,140
chart, it'll jump off the.
173
00:10:29,265 --> 00:10:30,555
Quick first glance.
174
00:10:30,585 --> 00:10:34,485
You'll see exactly what's going on without
having to do all of this acrobatics.
175
00:10:34,485 --> 00:10:36,285
I'm going to show you with
removing the lines with paint.
176
00:10:36,285 --> 00:10:40,665
It's not necessary, but I'll say
this before we go into it for those
177
00:10:40,665 --> 00:10:44,055
individuals that really want to have
this data and be able to use it like
178
00:10:44,055 --> 00:10:47,925
this and see it graphically, uh, you
can start collecting the data and you
179
00:10:47,925 --> 00:10:51,105
can download a historical data for all
the commodities that you want to track.
180
00:10:51,495 --> 00:10:53,625
And for those individuals that
are in here to only interest in.
181
00:10:54,160 --> 00:10:57,070
The currency markets, if you
like your favorite pairs, just
182
00:10:57,100 --> 00:11:01,300
download, uh, historical data
about the net traders destination.
183
00:11:01,420 --> 00:11:05,290
Um, for that particular currency
unions, Princeton states, deputy Jan,
184
00:11:05,290 --> 00:11:10,240
you want to be a specialist in, you
can download years worth of data on
185
00:11:10,270 --> 00:11:14,680
cot data and plot the commercial's net
long positions and net short positions.
186
00:11:15,130 --> 00:11:16,330
And it would look like this.
187
00:11:16,330 --> 00:11:17,680
He could plot it with Xcel or something.
188
00:11:19,060 --> 00:11:21,970
And I'm certain, some of you guys that
are really, uh, you know, cracker Jack
189
00:11:21,970 --> 00:11:25,360
with, uh, programming for empty for, you
could probably create an indicator that
190
00:11:25,360 --> 00:11:29,770
does this, you know, where it plots the
net traders position for the commercials.
191
00:11:29,770 --> 00:11:33,430
Only that way you can get a range
and determine what the highest
192
00:11:33,430 --> 00:11:34,390
high and the lowest low is.
193
00:11:34,720 --> 00:11:37,390
And last six months in the last 12
months, and be able to get that range
194
00:11:37,390 --> 00:11:40,330
to define that, like we're going
to discuss here, but without having
195
00:11:40,330 --> 00:11:41,860
to do all that, it's not necessary.
196
00:11:42,100 --> 00:11:43,830
But if you want to do it,
there's things like that.
197
00:11:44,835 --> 00:11:48,495
But what I do is I quickly look
at the chart and I see it as
198
00:11:48,495 --> 00:11:49,515
I'm going to outline it here.
199
00:11:49,875 --> 00:11:52,665
So obviously we have about a year's
worth of data here, and you can
200
00:11:52,665 --> 00:11:57,135
see the red line is the commercial
activity and rate in December, right
201
00:11:57,135 --> 00:11:58,605
before, actually December, right?
202
00:11:58,605 --> 00:12:01,935
Like the last week of November,
you can see these swung from net
203
00:12:01,935 --> 00:12:07,215
short position below the zero
basis line to net long in the last
204
00:12:07,215 --> 00:12:09,465
week or so of, uh, November, 2016.
205
00:12:09,825 --> 00:12:10,425
And they've remained.
206
00:12:11,310 --> 00:12:13,980
Above the zero line from that point on.
207
00:12:15,555 --> 00:12:18,315
So again by itself, it
doesn't tell us anything.
208
00:12:18,405 --> 00:12:21,015
And this is the reason why
people walk away from cot data.
209
00:12:21,255 --> 00:12:22,365
They say it's useless.
210
00:12:22,665 --> 00:12:24,165
Um, it's always hindsight.
211
00:12:24,165 --> 00:12:24,975
It can't be used.
212
00:12:24,975 --> 00:12:28,605
And, you know, in terms of being able to
have prognostication about what price is
213
00:12:28,605 --> 00:12:32,175
going to do, and we're going to dispel
that disbelief in this teaching here.
214
00:12:32,205 --> 00:12:35,205
So what we're gonna do is we're
going to focus on when the
215
00:12:35,205 --> 00:12:36,615
market's below the zero line.
216
00:12:36,705 --> 00:12:37,035
Okay.
217
00:12:37,035 --> 00:12:43,485
So zero line basis below zero is when
the net position is bearish or short.
218
00:12:44,275 --> 00:12:46,195
The position above the zero line.
219
00:12:46,225 --> 00:12:46,585
Okay.
220
00:12:46,615 --> 00:12:49,855
Or the net zero sum basis
is going to be bullish.
221
00:12:49,885 --> 00:12:50,095
Okay.
222
00:12:50,095 --> 00:12:54,355
Are there net long when we have
those conditions, there's going to
223
00:12:54,355 --> 00:12:58,135
be things that we can do to look
for optimal, optimal trade entries.
224
00:12:58,255 --> 00:12:58,525
Okay.
225
00:12:58,525 --> 00:13:01,765
Not optimal trade entry pattern, but
for optimal trade conditions for.
226
00:13:03,209 --> 00:13:06,239
So we're going to look at this
price action segment here, and I
227
00:13:06,239 --> 00:13:08,130
want you to follow along with me.
228
00:13:08,160 --> 00:13:08,339
Okay.
229
00:13:08,339 --> 00:13:09,959
And we're going to look in
this whole portion of price.
230
00:13:09,959 --> 00:13:12,719
Actually, I'm a lot closer and
use this information, just like
231
00:13:12,719 --> 00:13:13,829
we see it here on this chart.
232
00:13:14,219 --> 00:13:18,089
We're going to change it slightly in
terms of the perspective, but we, we,
233
00:13:18,150 --> 00:13:19,949
we're not manipulating the data at all.
234
00:13:20,160 --> 00:13:24,239
We're just really zooming in and looking
at it from a hedging perspective.
235
00:13:24,270 --> 00:13:26,520
Cause there's a hedging program
that I want you to see in price
236
00:13:26,520 --> 00:13:28,410
action that you can track with this.
237
00:13:30,000 --> 00:13:33,300
Some zero line and whether the
commercials are net long or net short
238
00:13:33,360 --> 00:13:35,940
and the activity of their net positions.
239
00:13:38,160 --> 00:13:38,370
Okay.
240
00:13:38,370 --> 00:13:46,170
So this is January, 2016,
all the way to January, 2017.
241
00:13:46,560 --> 00:13:46,950
Okay.
242
00:13:47,010 --> 00:13:49,680
And what we're going to do
is run, take this entire.
243
00:13:50,535 --> 00:13:51,345
Price action.
244
00:13:51,675 --> 00:13:53,175
And we're gonna divide it in two segments.
245
00:13:53,415 --> 00:13:58,875
We're going to do the first
portion up to January of 2017.
246
00:13:58,905 --> 00:14:05,545
We're going to start around, um, well,
beginning of the year, 2016, I'm going
247
00:14:05,545 --> 00:14:09,074
to break that down, but before we get
into it, I want you to look at what price
248
00:14:09,074 --> 00:14:12,735
was doing the whole first half of 2016.
249
00:14:14,235 --> 00:14:16,215
If you were looking at that, and
obviously we have the benefit of
250
00:14:16,215 --> 00:14:21,285
hindsight here, but for the sake of
argument, Looking at institutional order
251
00:14:21,285 --> 00:14:28,725
flow were the bullish or blocks being
respected and we're up close candles
252
00:14:28,725 --> 00:14:32,775
or what would be deemed as a bare
sort of block where they being broken.
253
00:14:33,314 --> 00:14:38,954
In other words, are we seeing price being
supported by discount arrays, clearly
254
00:14:39,045 --> 00:14:40,545
beyond a shadow of a doubt it's there.
255
00:14:40,995 --> 00:14:45,555
So we know the institutional order
flow was bullish from January of 2016.
256
00:14:46,275 --> 00:14:50,325
We're February, 2016, when price me
that low and all the way through.
257
00:14:51,300 --> 00:14:57,240
Until around the mid July, going
into the summer months, uh, there
258
00:14:57,240 --> 00:15:01,560
was a small little pullback that,
uh, broke a short-term low and
259
00:15:01,560 --> 00:15:03,180
then price resumed higher again.
260
00:15:03,569 --> 00:15:09,270
And it had a lot of issues with getting
above the 1.00 level when the Japanese
261
00:15:09,270 --> 00:15:12,689
yen, which we'll look at at the end
of this teaching, why it struggled
262
00:15:12,689 --> 00:15:14,160
with that level and finally reversed.
263
00:15:14,580 --> 00:15:14,850
But.
264
00:15:15,620 --> 00:15:18,140
We can see how institutional
order flow was bullish.
265
00:15:18,740 --> 00:15:22,580
Uh, every time a short-term loan was taken
out, price rallied, any time of price,
266
00:15:22,580 --> 00:15:24,350
trade down into it, down closed candle.
267
00:15:24,500 --> 00:15:28,260
It was supported as a bull shoulder
block and all of the premium PD
268
00:15:28,260 --> 00:15:30,500
arrays were always broken through.
269
00:15:30,740 --> 00:15:34,220
There was no premium
effect that was lasting.
270
00:15:35,400 --> 00:15:39,990
But if we look at just the cot data
down here, the commercials, the red
271
00:15:39,990 --> 00:15:41,729
line that was below the zero line.
272
00:15:41,729 --> 00:15:46,709
So that would be telling us to do
what go short based on the traditional
273
00:15:46,709 --> 00:15:48,120
perspective of commitment of traders.
274
00:15:48,599 --> 00:15:49,530
And this is why.
275
00:15:50,105 --> 00:15:53,435
Everyone discounted Larry
Williams stuff for a long, long
276
00:15:53,435 --> 00:15:55,595
time and still do to today.
277
00:15:56,165 --> 00:15:59,375
And if you look at how I'm going
to show you how to use this
278
00:15:59,375 --> 00:16:04,415
information, it takes cot data to
light years ahead where everyone
279
00:16:04,415 --> 00:16:05,795
else doesn't even see it like this.
280
00:16:05,795 --> 00:16:07,955
They don't even turn, they
don't interpret price like this.
281
00:16:07,955 --> 00:16:11,135
They don't interpret cot data like
this, but this is exactly how you
282
00:16:11,135 --> 00:16:12,965
track what their hedging programs are.
283
00:16:13,625 --> 00:16:18,885
So while they had a cell program,
Because they are below the zero line or
284
00:16:19,215 --> 00:16:24,255
the zero line basis was barest because
they were below zero line from January
285
00:16:24,255 --> 00:16:31,485
to February, 2016, all the way to the
last or middle week of November, 2016,
286
00:16:31,485 --> 00:16:33,975
you can see that graphically with
the red line going above the zero.
287
00:16:34,005 --> 00:16:42,105
So while they have a bearish or sell
program going on at the time for many
288
00:16:42,105 --> 00:16:44,385
months, they were selling Heather.
289
00:16:45,225 --> 00:16:45,525
Okay.
290
00:16:45,525 --> 00:16:49,935
As the market was rallying, they
were keeping sell program active,
291
00:16:49,965 --> 00:16:53,175
but you can still see institutional
order flow being bullshit.
292
00:16:53,175 --> 00:16:54,525
And this is what's going
to confuse some of you.
293
00:16:54,825 --> 00:16:55,185
Okay.
294
00:16:55,425 --> 00:16:58,635
We're going to cover the details later
in this teaching, but for now, what
295
00:16:58,635 --> 00:17:03,015
you're focusing on primarily is was the
institutional order flow telling you, it's
296
00:17:03,015 --> 00:17:07,305
going to tell you whether there's buying
or selling going on by price action alone.
297
00:17:08,115 --> 00:17:11,565
What we're going to do is decipher
that from a cot standpoint.
298
00:17:12,105 --> 00:17:12,454
Okay.
299
00:17:13,425 --> 00:17:16,875
That filter process, even though
that the cot data is below
300
00:17:16,875 --> 00:17:19,515
the zero line for many months.
301
00:17:19,665 --> 00:17:20,085
Okay.
302
00:17:20,415 --> 00:17:25,335
We can still fair it out when the
commercials step in and do aggressive
303
00:17:25,335 --> 00:17:30,435
hedging and buying, even though they're
in a below zero line or a cell program,
304
00:17:30,765 --> 00:17:32,165
you can see when they get aggressive and.
305
00:17:33,510 --> 00:17:38,700
And cause price to go higher while still
keeping the cot data below the zero line.
306
00:17:39,090 --> 00:17:42,600
So anyone tracking the commitment
of traders report for the Japanese
307
00:17:42,600 --> 00:17:44,670
yen, they're not following along.
308
00:17:45,899 --> 00:17:47,639
In other words, it doesn't
look germane to them.
309
00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:49,200
It's completely alien.
310
00:17:49,440 --> 00:17:51,899
It doesn't make any sense to the
Japanese runs rallying, rallying,
311
00:17:51,899 --> 00:17:55,170
rallying, but they're holding a net
short position by the commercials.
312
00:17:55,170 --> 00:17:55,889
How can that be?
313
00:17:56,129 --> 00:17:57,180
What, why is that happening?
314
00:17:57,480 --> 00:17:58,200
Well, the commercial.
315
00:17:59,540 --> 00:18:03,169
Again, they could be banks, they
could be selling a currency, providing
316
00:18:03,169 --> 00:18:07,790
liquidity, all that's being reflected
in these numbers as a net basis.
317
00:18:08,209 --> 00:18:11,510
So just because they're below the
zero line, doesn't mean that we can't
318
00:18:11,510 --> 00:18:15,229
see buying itself as well, because
it can happen on both sides of the
319
00:18:15,229 --> 00:18:21,639
marketplace, but anything above the
zero line, that's obviously bullish.
320
00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:28,060
And we would have to consider anything
below the zero line bearish, but
321
00:18:28,060 --> 00:18:32,470
we do not limit ourselves to just
focusing on selling only below the zero
322
00:18:32,470 --> 00:18:34,330
line or buying above the zero line.
323
00:18:34,330 --> 00:18:36,970
Cause you can do both the way
you decipher it is what is
324
00:18:36,970 --> 00:18:38,410
institutional order flow at the time?
325
00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:41,080
What are the conditions right
now suggesting and price action.
326
00:18:41,379 --> 00:18:44,800
If bulls shorter blocks are being
a supporting price, any loads,
327
00:18:44,800 --> 00:18:47,710
the Derby and taking out reject
price as a stop run on sell.
328
00:18:47,710 --> 00:18:47,950
Stop.
329
00:18:48,680 --> 00:18:50,990
And then all of a sudden it
rallies and breaks through will be
330
00:18:50,990 --> 00:18:52,910
otherwise deemed as a premium array.
331
00:18:53,270 --> 00:18:58,220
Then institutional order flow is, is
bullish and you can see by programs,
332
00:18:58,220 --> 00:19:04,100
kick in, in a hedging program while
a larger cell program is underway.
333
00:19:04,370 --> 00:19:05,480
And again, let me rephrase that.
334
00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:14,630
A larger long-term cell program can still
have bullish hedging by programs in it.
335
00:19:15,710 --> 00:19:17,300
And you'll see that now as we go through.
336
00:19:18,044 --> 00:19:20,175
This segment of price
action for the Japanese yen.
337
00:19:22,094 --> 00:19:22,274
Okay.
338
00:19:22,274 --> 00:19:27,165
So what I have here is I have priced
trained in on that segment of price
339
00:19:27,764 --> 00:19:32,415
and I removed the large speculators
line and the small speculators line.
340
00:19:33,375 --> 00:19:38,084
So that way we can highlight all of
the price action by way of the net
341
00:19:38,084 --> 00:19:41,534
chairs position line chart on the
commercials, which is the red line here.
342
00:19:42,915 --> 00:19:44,895
Now I want you to see how price state.
343
00:19:45,929 --> 00:19:50,159
Higher going higher, making higher
highs and, and finding support at bullet
344
00:19:50,159 --> 00:19:54,330
shorter blocks, running out short-term
lows and then rallying, but finding their
345
00:19:54,330 --> 00:19:57,870
way through any high or premium array.
346
00:19:58,409 --> 00:20:01,949
So the institutional order flow
all the way through to the middle
347
00:20:01,949 --> 00:20:04,350
of August, going into September.
348
00:20:06,840 --> 00:20:10,020
But how do we reconcile this net
short position by the commercials?
349
00:20:10,170 --> 00:20:11,340
Because they're below the zero line.
350
00:20:11,670 --> 00:20:16,590
It doesn't make any sense unless we break
it down and use the six month range and
351
00:20:16,590 --> 00:20:21,120
the 12 month range idea of looking for
the highest and the lowest reading on
352
00:20:21,120 --> 00:20:24,930
their net position by the commercials,
we don't care about what those long-term.
353
00:20:25,780 --> 00:20:28,840
Uh, speculators that,
uh, are in a blue line.
354
00:20:28,870 --> 00:20:30,040
We don't care about the small specks.
355
00:20:30,040 --> 00:20:31,719
We don't care about the large specs.
356
00:20:31,750 --> 00:20:35,080
We're only caring about what the actions
of this red line is because it's going
357
00:20:35,080 --> 00:20:39,040
to show us and reflect what their
hedging program is at the current time.
358
00:20:39,699 --> 00:20:42,699
So anytime when you're looking at
cot data, you want to look at where
359
00:20:42,699 --> 00:20:44,050
we're at right now and go back 60.
360
00:20:44,970 --> 00:20:46,530
Because there's your six
month hedging program.
361
00:20:46,740 --> 00:20:48,810
They have a 12 months housing program.
362
00:20:49,110 --> 00:20:53,160
So by blending, the two, you can get
short-term quarterly effect trades.
363
00:20:53,490 --> 00:20:53,970
Now thank you.
364
00:20:53,970 --> 00:20:54,810
We talked about that.
365
00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:57,060
There's quarterly effects
every three or four months.
366
00:20:57,060 --> 00:21:01,410
There's a shift in market structure
in the market trades in a sustained
367
00:21:01,410 --> 00:21:05,700
move for about two and a half
months or so maybe three months.
368
00:21:06,870 --> 00:21:10,410
But every quarter or so of the year,
there's a shift in market structuring.
369
00:21:10,470 --> 00:21:14,490
And this helps you find that by
looking at the six month range of
370
00:21:14,490 --> 00:21:17,520
the highest high and lowest low of
the commercial net position has been,
371
00:21:19,590 --> 00:21:21,480
that is seen with this shaded area.
372
00:21:21,510 --> 00:21:25,290
She can see the highest high and
the lowest low is being basically
373
00:21:25,290 --> 00:21:26,580
blocked out with that shaded area.
374
00:21:26,610 --> 00:21:28,490
So once you know what
that is, you divide that.
375
00:21:29,520 --> 00:21:35,040
You get that range so we can go back 12
months and in six months and it rolls.
376
00:21:35,669 --> 00:21:39,240
But in here you can see how the
net positions have stayed in a very
377
00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:44,189
tight range, even that can tell us
a goldmine worth of information.
378
00:21:45,720 --> 00:21:48,210
Look what suddenly happens when
you decipher the information like.
379
00:21:49,050 --> 00:21:51,000
You do not see cot data like this.
380
00:21:51,000 --> 00:21:53,370
And Larry Williams doesn't
even do this with cot data.
381
00:21:53,940 --> 00:21:58,260
This is something that I looked at
price forever, and I knew there was
382
00:21:58,260 --> 00:21:59,700
something going on behind the scenes.
383
00:22:00,180 --> 00:22:04,620
And I literally said, you know, what,
if price can trade and trading right.
384
00:22:06,055 --> 00:22:10,645
So can this information, but if
they're going to be doing buying
385
00:22:10,645 --> 00:22:12,685
and selling, it can't be hidden.
386
00:22:12,895 --> 00:22:14,575
If that's true, I should see it.
387
00:22:14,735 --> 00:22:21,445
If I look at the data in terms of the
range for time, remember IPTA well, I
388
00:22:21,445 --> 00:22:25,855
applied similar things to this, so I
looked at six month intervals and 12
389
00:22:25,855 --> 00:22:28,075
month intervals, three month intervals.
390
00:22:28,815 --> 00:22:31,905
For four months, sorry,
four year intervals.
391
00:22:32,235 --> 00:22:34,725
Three-year intervals, two-year
intervals, one-year interval
392
00:22:34,995 --> 00:22:36,255
and in six month intervals.
393
00:22:37,785 --> 00:22:40,305
So if you go back through the data
and you'd look at it like that,
394
00:22:40,305 --> 00:22:44,115
you'll get a clearer depiction of what
the commercials are actually doing.
395
00:22:44,895 --> 00:22:48,285
Now, if you look at these green
little nodules in here, okay.
396
00:22:48,375 --> 00:22:52,305
Even though that were below the zero
line by determining the total range in
397
00:22:52,305 --> 00:22:54,045
the last six months and the last 12.
398
00:22:55,064 --> 00:22:58,995
We can get every time their hedging
program kicks in, even though there's
399
00:22:58,995 --> 00:23:03,044
a larger cell program is underway by
keeping the net positions below zero,
400
00:23:04,004 --> 00:23:07,245
their hedging program can be deciphered
by looking at these little nodules.
401
00:23:07,425 --> 00:23:11,264
Once you determine the range,
the first one here, you can see
402
00:23:11,264 --> 00:23:13,155
how all that bind took place.
403
00:23:14,084 --> 00:23:17,264
The second one here, you see where
they made a low they're bought off
404
00:23:17,264 --> 00:23:21,725
of a bullish or block that was seen
in the last week of April filling in.
405
00:23:23,340 --> 00:23:26,429
And we had this area here where they
were buying again, after we've taken
406
00:23:26,429 --> 00:23:31,320
out a short-term low that was seen in
the last week of June and price resumed,
407
00:23:31,350 --> 00:23:35,120
but then found long-term resistance at
that 1.00 level, which we'll look at
408
00:23:35,159 --> 00:23:36,689
the last slide of this presentation.
409
00:23:36,870 --> 00:23:39,810
And you'll see why clearly that had a
struggling point there and were finally
410
00:23:39,810 --> 00:23:46,530
reversed by breaking a short-term low
only after trading at that 1.0 level, a
411
00:23:46,530 --> 00:23:50,159
few times, failing to get above it and
finally breaking market structure to.
412
00:23:51,060 --> 00:23:51,660
Downside.
413
00:23:52,020 --> 00:23:55,860
And then you can see the commercials
finally started building up a larger
414
00:23:56,580 --> 00:23:59,310
net, long position above the airline.
415
00:23:59,310 --> 00:24:01,410
So there's the airline
basis is now bullish.
416
00:24:01,770 --> 00:24:05,190
So now they're in a buy program, but
they're going to be hedging early.
417
00:24:05,340 --> 00:24:08,520
They start doing it early, but
they make the highs and the
418
00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:09,450
lows and the markets by doing.
419
00:24:12,665 --> 00:24:17,495
So now we're looking at the last
week or so of November of 2016,
420
00:24:17,885 --> 00:24:18,965
all the way to present time.
421
00:24:19,715 --> 00:24:23,765
And again, I'm going to counsel you to
look at what the cot data looks like by
422
00:24:23,765 --> 00:24:29,405
plotting a net traded physician, a line
chart as everyone else would do with
423
00:24:29,405 --> 00:24:32,885
it, with the information that you would
get with a commitment trades reports.
424
00:24:34,085 --> 00:24:34,865
This is what it looked like.
425
00:24:34,865 --> 00:24:36,095
If you zoomed in on a daily chart.
426
00:24:36,635 --> 00:24:38,705
And again, it doesn't tell
you much except for it.
427
00:24:38,705 --> 00:24:38,945
Doesn't it.
428
00:24:39,930 --> 00:24:43,380
And granted they have been sending the
Japanese yen higher as a result of that.
429
00:24:43,800 --> 00:24:45,720
But what was institutional
order flow as well?
430
00:24:46,560 --> 00:24:47,880
Our down candle supporting price.
431
00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:52,530
When it trades back down to it are
up-close candles being broken as PDA.
432
00:24:52,530 --> 00:24:54,930
Rays are old highs being taken out.
433
00:24:55,230 --> 00:24:59,250
And are we seeing support by
price moving down into what would
434
00:24:59,250 --> 00:25:00,510
be otherwise a discount rate?
435
00:25:00,930 --> 00:25:01,500
Yes.
436
00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:04,200
We're seeing that all throughout
this entire price segment
437
00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:07,530
from the mid point of January.
438
00:25:08,475 --> 00:25:12,584
I'm sorry, the midpoint of December
going into January, where we made that
439
00:25:12,584 --> 00:25:15,945
turning point now commercials have
really moved to a net long position.
440
00:25:16,155 --> 00:25:19,935
Now they're in a buy program, but
now because we're in a buy program,
441
00:25:19,935 --> 00:25:21,465
does that mean it can't sell off?
442
00:25:21,495 --> 00:25:24,794
Now they can have selloffs, but we're
going to focus primarily on what
443
00:25:24,794 --> 00:25:27,165
is the range the last six months.
444
00:25:27,495 --> 00:25:27,945
Okay.
445
00:25:27,975 --> 00:25:29,745
Of the commercial activity.
446
00:25:30,074 --> 00:25:31,995
But first we got to focus
on what that looks like.
447
00:25:33,030 --> 00:25:35,640
We're going to take everything
down to just the commercial line.
448
00:25:36,150 --> 00:25:40,380
And I removed the small specs line and the
large speculators did not manipulate the
449
00:25:40,380 --> 00:25:42,630
price or do anything with the indicator.
450
00:25:42,780 --> 00:25:45,240
All I did was erase everything
with paint so that we can
451
00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:46,410
clearly see what's going on.
452
00:25:47,790 --> 00:25:51,030
I want you to look at, by taking
the information, determined that the
453
00:25:51,030 --> 00:25:54,630
highest high and the lowest low in
the range, the finding that basis
454
00:25:54,630 --> 00:25:56,790
line creating its own new basis line.
455
00:25:57,120 --> 00:26:01,680
We can see where the buying kicks
in and you see nodules kicking in.
456
00:26:02,475 --> 00:26:06,405
In January, we can see one
in mid-March and we can see
457
00:26:06,405 --> 00:26:07,995
one in the last week of may.
458
00:26:08,475 --> 00:26:10,814
And those are the respective time
periods where the market sees
459
00:26:10,814 --> 00:26:17,324
the greatest advances in price
going higher all through here.
460
00:26:17,895 --> 00:26:20,504
Market was bullish all through here.
461
00:26:20,985 --> 00:26:22,215
We're currently bullish as well.
462
00:26:22,335 --> 00:26:26,625
If you look at the price of Japanese yen
right now and go to the left in the last
463
00:26:26,895 --> 00:26:30,405
week of April this year, you can see
there's a fair value gap up there at 91.
464
00:26:31,230 --> 00:26:35,040
So it kind of gives you an insight
about where we think based on what we're
465
00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:38,520
talking about here, where a Japanese gym
might go, at least on the short term,
466
00:26:39,180 --> 00:26:43,710
and we're using the hedging program
as outlined here as a basis for that.
467
00:26:46,110 --> 00:26:49,860
So when we look at commercial
hedging, we're not looking just at
468
00:26:49,860 --> 00:26:53,700
whether a net loss, net short, but
that does give us the buyer sole
469
00:26:53,710 --> 00:26:54,840
program that they're operating in.
470
00:26:55,110 --> 00:26:56,430
But inside that buy and sell.
471
00:26:57,659 --> 00:26:59,030
Or buy and sell program.
472
00:26:59,120 --> 00:26:59,879
I say it like that.
473
00:27:00,300 --> 00:27:04,950
There are hedging programs that go on
because their nature of their speculation
474
00:27:04,950 --> 00:27:09,330
in the marketplace is to lock in good
prices for their manufacturing of
475
00:27:09,330 --> 00:27:15,090
commodity or a good, and to do that
efficiently, they have to make sure
476
00:27:15,090 --> 00:27:18,840
prices are obtained at very discount or.
477
00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:20,730
Friendly levels.
478
00:27:21,060 --> 00:27:22,050
You know, you don't want to be buying.
479
00:27:22,050 --> 00:27:24,629
If you're Kirsha, you don't need
to be buying cocoa later on.
480
00:27:24,629 --> 00:27:27,020
When you've already seen fundamentals
are suggesting is going to be higher
481
00:27:27,040 --> 00:27:28,320
six months from now or a year from now.
482
00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:30,389
You're not going to be
doing all your buying.
483
00:27:30,389 --> 00:27:32,540
Then you're going to
allocate a lot more money.
484
00:27:33,360 --> 00:27:36,000
To buy ups, uh, stock for that.
485
00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:40,320
So that way, when prices go higher,
you've made a better return on your
486
00:27:40,320 --> 00:27:42,000
investment and keeps costs low.
487
00:27:42,330 --> 00:27:44,159
And that's the nature of, of hedging.
488
00:27:44,399 --> 00:27:46,770
So the same thing happens with the
banks and lending institutions.
489
00:27:47,070 --> 00:27:49,889
You know, the value of, of money is
going to be fluctuating all the time.
490
00:27:50,310 --> 00:27:54,389
So they're trained accredited staffs
that do those types of things.
491
00:27:55,139 --> 00:27:57,600
They will invest in buy and sell based on.
492
00:27:59,310 --> 00:28:01,710
Notions that they're supplying
to manufacturers that they
493
00:28:02,129 --> 00:28:03,570
have an assessment on.
494
00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:05,129
I'm not smart enough
to know what they are.
495
00:28:05,190 --> 00:28:06,300
I've never claimed to know that.
496
00:28:06,330 --> 00:28:07,740
And you're never going
to know that from me.
497
00:28:07,740 --> 00:28:11,430
Cause I don't know it personally, but I
can see what they're doing graphically
498
00:28:11,430 --> 00:28:12,570
and they can't hide it from me.
499
00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:16,590
And now, because I've shared it
with you, you can do the same thing.
500
00:28:16,590 --> 00:28:19,350
There's nothing that they
can, they can't hide from you.
501
00:28:19,379 --> 00:28:20,670
This there's nothing to worry about.
502
00:28:20,790 --> 00:28:23,790
They're not gonna be able to hide in the
future because you now know how to do it.
503
00:28:23,820 --> 00:28:25,860
It's just the data.
504
00:28:26,850 --> 00:28:30,000
Well, Larry Williams back in the
seventies and sixties, you know, he had
505
00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:33,689
it figured out then, but only at extremes.
506
00:28:33,990 --> 00:28:36,360
And that's what I'm going
to say in closing here.
507
00:28:36,689 --> 00:28:39,959
When we look at the commitment of
traders report and we plot it on
508
00:28:40,020 --> 00:28:44,429
a, uh, traders, uh, basis, whether
it's a net long, a net short on the
509
00:28:44,429 --> 00:28:48,480
commercials, if we get to a four year
extreme or a two year extreme or 12
510
00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:52,260
month extreme, generally there's usually
a long-term trend reversal at play.
511
00:28:52,679 --> 00:28:55,290
And the commercial will sometimes
factor that in with their own.
512
00:28:56,235 --> 00:29:01,455
Uh, movements in the marketplace by
having those extremes, we will discount
513
00:29:01,455 --> 00:29:02,955
any short-term hedging program.
514
00:29:03,284 --> 00:29:08,385
If we get to a four year, two year or
a one-year extreme of the highest high
515
00:29:08,564 --> 00:29:10,064
and the lowest low their net positions.
516
00:29:11,534 --> 00:29:14,655
But let's look at this segment here
again, a little bit closer where the
517
00:29:14,655 --> 00:29:16,004
commercials were below the zero line.
518
00:29:17,070 --> 00:29:19,230
And this section over here where
they're above is your aligned.
519
00:29:19,770 --> 00:29:21,810
When we see those conditions, okay.
520
00:29:21,870 --> 00:29:25,890
The red line, that's a cell program, the
red shaded area, when it's like that below
521
00:29:25,890 --> 00:29:27,600
the zero line, that is a cell program.
522
00:29:28,090 --> 00:29:31,200
Doesn't mean you can't see buying going
on, but you have to look at in the form
523
00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:35,010
of the hedging program that goes on,
look for the small, short term ranges.
524
00:29:35,010 --> 00:29:37,830
And when they go above the new range
that you would define, as we just
525
00:29:37,830 --> 00:29:41,970
mentioned an outline a moment ago, you
can see where they're buying and selling
526
00:29:41,970 --> 00:29:44,940
is taking place below the zero line.
527
00:29:44,970 --> 00:29:45,840
The best conditions.
528
00:29:47,190 --> 00:29:48,150
Looking for shorts.
529
00:29:48,540 --> 00:29:52,140
That means if you can get institutional
order flow bearish, you want to look
530
00:29:52,140 --> 00:29:56,340
for net short positions about the
commercials and at premium erase.
531
00:29:56,340 --> 00:30:00,720
And that would be the ideal scenario,
but you can still get by hedging programs
532
00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:03,540
inside that long-term sole program.
533
00:30:03,900 --> 00:30:07,160
And I know this is going to convince,
uh, confused some of you, but you're
534
00:30:07,170 --> 00:30:09,660
gonna have to watch this video several
different times because you're going
535
00:30:09,660 --> 00:30:12,780
to see by looking at it multiple times.
536
00:30:13,950 --> 00:30:18,870
You'll see that there's two factors
taking place here, longterm buy and
537
00:30:18,870 --> 00:30:21,870
sell programs based on the zero line,
whether they're above or below it.
538
00:30:22,290 --> 00:30:27,360
And then they hedge even during those
periods, because they're not just buying
539
00:30:27,370 --> 00:30:30,270
all one-time selling all at one time,
they're moving back and forth in the
540
00:30:30,270 --> 00:30:32,070
marketplace around specific price levels.
541
00:30:32,520 --> 00:30:37,290
When they create these nodules and
the hedging program, those levels
542
00:30:37,290 --> 00:30:39,120
are significant in the future.
543
00:30:39,600 --> 00:30:42,150
They're going to be key
price points as a PD.
544
00:30:43,515 --> 00:30:47,445
Make sure you have that in your charts
and note them by using a cot edging
545
00:30:47,445 --> 00:30:50,745
program technique that I just taught
you here in the green shaded area.
546
00:30:50,745 --> 00:30:54,705
That is ideally going to be seeing
the best buys when the market
547
00:30:54,705 --> 00:30:57,945
is creating discount rates and
institutional or flows bullish.
548
00:30:58,185 --> 00:31:02,385
But it doesn't mean you can't be
selling short when the short-term six
549
00:31:02,385 --> 00:31:05,875
month or 12 month range indicates that
the commercials are net short and.
550
00:31:06,764 --> 00:31:07,635
Adjusted range.
551
00:31:08,205 --> 00:31:11,055
As in other words, we looked at the
last, highest high and lowest low
552
00:31:11,325 --> 00:31:12,555
in the last six months at 12 months.
553
00:31:12,615 --> 00:31:16,425
Even if they're above the zero line
while that's a bullish by program
554
00:31:16,425 --> 00:31:21,014
long-term they could still be doing
short term selling hedging programs in
555
00:31:21,014 --> 00:31:23,055
there, and it causes price to go lower.
556
00:31:23,295 --> 00:31:26,655
But you have to look at things in terms
of blending, three different things.
557
00:31:26,655 --> 00:31:28,995
You're looking at the program of buying.
558
00:31:29,825 --> 00:31:32,825
Whether they're above or below the
airline, then you look at the hedging
559
00:31:32,825 --> 00:31:36,515
program based on the range of the highest
high and lowest low of the commercials in
560
00:31:36,515 --> 00:31:40,715
the last six months and last 12 months,
and then using institutional order flow.
561
00:31:40,715 --> 00:31:42,125
What is price telling you?
562
00:31:42,605 --> 00:31:46,175
Is it respecting discounted
rates or premium arrays?
563
00:31:47,405 --> 00:31:49,775
And by blending those things,
you can get to the truth of what
564
00:31:49,775 --> 00:31:50,765
the market's actually doing.
565
00:31:50,765 --> 00:31:54,125
And you'll know what institutional
order flow is with the greatest of.
566
00:31:57,250 --> 00:31:59,139
So commercial heading hedging programs.
567
00:31:59,350 --> 00:32:02,889
You know, if commercials are above or
below the net sum, zero aligned, both
568
00:32:02,889 --> 00:32:04,149
sides of the market can be trading.
569
00:32:05,649 --> 00:32:08,290
The current range of the commercials
net position is referred.
570
00:32:10,764 --> 00:32:14,754
If institutional order flow is bullish,
we're going to be blending discount, PDA
571
00:32:14,754 --> 00:32:20,455
rays, and the last 12 or six month net,
long commercial readings for long trades.
572
00:32:20,814 --> 00:32:23,274
Now, again, that's when we
see those little bullish
573
00:32:23,304 --> 00:32:25,465
nodules in new defined range.
574
00:32:25,645 --> 00:32:29,365
Again, this can be ideally
seeing when we're above the zero.
575
00:32:31,315 --> 00:32:33,925
If institutional order flow is
bearish, we're going to be blending
576
00:32:33,925 --> 00:32:37,975
premium PD arrays and the 12 or
six month range of the net short
577
00:32:38,005 --> 00:32:40,345
commercial readings for short trades.
578
00:32:42,325 --> 00:32:46,585
The best conditions are seen when both
net some basis agree with institutional
579
00:32:46,585 --> 00:32:48,745
order flow and PDA rate matrix conflict.
580
00:32:52,735 --> 00:32:56,875
The long-term commercial activity,
the net sum zero line delineates,
581
00:32:56,875 --> 00:32:59,095
the net buying and or net selling.
582
00:32:59,725 --> 00:33:03,294
Now retail traders that know about
the net trader physician chart only
583
00:33:03,294 --> 00:33:06,955
look at whether commercials are net
long for bullishness or net short
584
00:33:06,955 --> 00:33:08,034
for bearishness on the market.
585
00:33:08,875 --> 00:33:13,105
The smart money can be tracked by
focusing on the 12 month and six month.
586
00:33:14,205 --> 00:33:15,435
Uh, the commercial net position.
587
00:33:16,185 --> 00:33:19,064
Get the commercials are
above net's zero line.
588
00:33:19,335 --> 00:33:22,784
We're gonna be focusing on the 12
to six month net long readings.
589
00:33:23,595 --> 00:33:26,835
If commercials are below this airline,
we're gonna be focusing on a 12 or
590
00:33:26,835 --> 00:33:29,205
six month range net short position.
591
00:33:30,120 --> 00:33:34,710
We blamed these conditions with PDA Ray
matrix and institutional order flow for
592
00:33:34,710 --> 00:33:36,810
optimal results and directional analysis.
593
00:33:36,900 --> 00:33:42,060
So with this teaching, what we've done
is we were able to decipher what the
594
00:33:42,060 --> 00:33:46,560
commercial actions are, whether they're
buying or selling and not relying so much
595
00:33:46,590 --> 00:33:50,370
on whether they're below or above a zero
line as everyone else interprets price.
596
00:33:50,670 --> 00:33:55,920
Using this information, looking
at that level here, we can see
597
00:33:55,920 --> 00:33:58,680
how price went back to the 2014.
598
00:34:00,600 --> 00:34:05,909
January highs and July highs and
cleared out as equal highs and fell
599
00:34:05,909 --> 00:34:11,040
short from that position all the way
down to a level that was seen as a
600
00:34:11,219 --> 00:34:17,130
discount array in the January, 2016
time period, this is the weekly chart.
601
00:34:17,159 --> 00:34:21,690
So everything that we teach in
terms of res institutional order
602
00:34:21,690 --> 00:34:25,500
flow, all those things get blended
together to get optimal results.
603
00:34:25,770 --> 00:34:28,139
And now you entered the inner
circle as it relates to.
604
00:34:29,070 --> 00:34:33,000
Hedging commercial activity
and cot until next time I wish
605
00:34:33,000 --> 00:34:34,199
you good luck and good trading.
54426
Can't find what you're looking for?
Get subtitles in any language from opensubtitles.com, and translate them here.