All language subtitles for 031017_w EN (M)

Hey folks.

Welcome back.

This is a weekly recap.

Okay.

We're going to dollar index.

And today we did not get a
move above the equal highs.

So the buy-side liquidity is left
intact, and we're working in lower

end of the range between this high
and this high, the low is here.

Uh, we just cleared the body
or the open on that candle here

at 1 0 1 31 with today's look.

Oh, 1 30, 1 31 I stand
corrected is actually the same.

We would expect to seek price.

I want to reach below that in the
form of a rejection block, if it

continues to break lower, I mean,
threshold of this candle and this

candle is body blended together as
one, that your mean threshold here.

And then we have our next area
of sell side liquidity in here.

Uh, I believe, uh, we could potentially
say in a trading range a little bit more.

I don't see us topping like this.

So we may be just falling short
on non-farm payroll, which is kind

of like a Judas swing sometimes.

Not always, but it can be, uh,
so we could be looking at a

initial move, trying to be a.

Established as maybe a
potential top in the dollar.

And we ended up actually
trading higher as a result.

So what the, see if that happens,

Eurodollar, uh, we saw the intraday
live analysis pretty much spot on.

We were looking for a move about
that one to six 70 level, and that

was relative to a lower timeframe.

So if we go out to the hard timeframe
daily, which we didn't post yesterday,

we had four hours, but go back and.

Previous, uh, uh, weeks of daily charts.

And you'll see that above
the bodies of these candles.

That's what we'd be reaching for.

And that candle close comes in at 1 0 6
72 today's high so far has been 1 0 6 84.

Really, really nice rally here.

And it's attributed to the European.

Which has now made its way
up into our fair value.

Get that we've been talking
about for a number of weeks.

Now, this whole area is a gap whereby side
delivery needs to be filled in, I think

in more of a more convincing fashion.

So almost maybe we pointed that ultimately
I think we're going to be reaching for the

bias liquidity resting above these highs.

Yeah.

Pretty amazing rally in here really,
really amazing to see that happen.

And we come up in through this area here.

Let me copy this.

So we moved from this level

and this level here between these two
lines cut fast price was allowed to

move because there's only one little
range contained by one candidate.

So it slides right up into that
and goes into the fair value.

Got.

So I'm actually kind of glad that
we've worked all this business out

of here because it makes using the
Euro of a little bit more friendly

for our analysis, because it doesn't
have all these different pockets

of pores price action to work out.

So I'm actually very thankful that
it's able to do something like this.

Pound dollar.

Uh, we've seen it pretty
much mood session today.

Uh, nothing terribly exciting, but we
looked for a potential move up into this

candle is low it's on a lower timeframe.

And that came in at a 1 22.

10 to 1 22 15.

Didn't get up there at all.

Just pretty much stagnant price action.

I think it's going to want to just drift
lower and closing this range down here,

uh, or it can be held in consolidation
and allow the Euro to rally a little

bit more to close in that Euro pound
fair value gap or run on its old high.

And then as the European, uh, declines
or retraces lower and Euro dollar

drops, this could start to move higher.

Uh, we'll have to take a look
at that next week as we go in.

Dollar CAD.

Uh, we hit our fair value gap above it.

Just a little bit into the last
up candle, big rejection intraday

on the heels of non-farm payroll.

We still have that equal
high up here as well.

So that still hasn't changed in
regards to our longer-term objective.

One trading day doesn't make H and change.

We had to see.

Uh, conferences to support the fact
that we may be seeing a high here.

I don't see it, but we
could very well be doing it.

But I think the odds are that
we're going to still press higher

on this pair Aussie dollar.

We looked for an opportunity to see
price moved back up into a previous.

Bryce did that.

Um, but nothing terribly exciting yet.

We'll be looking for potential sell.

If we can get some bullishness on
a dollar next week on Monday going

into Tuesday, hopefully this pair
will be in this area here still, and

then give us some kind of a premium
array to sell short from and look for

our move down into its fair value.

Got Dell yang, mid point of
the area at shaded over here.

Hit it fell off.

And now we're going to be looking for
the market to try to find some support.

We don't want to see it
give away too much ground.

You look at the measured move ideas,
like for instance, this low here

to the short-term high, that range.

If we add that entire range from this
low, we still look for a potential move

above very easily above this old high.

So I'm not giving up my hope
of seeing the dollar rally.

And if that's the case, dollar yen
should still see some further upside.

And if it does.

We're looking for those equal high, still

dollar Swiss.

Again, the precursor was Tuesdays action.

This was a telltale sign that this pair
just wasn't going to give it to us.

So we saw now market moved
back into a trading range.

So this, this has become
a really sloppy pair.

So I'm probably not going to be
talking too much about it, even

though we'll have the charts up.

I'll just tell you if there's anything
that jumps off the chart and changes

before we announcing them really.

Uh, condition technically.

So I wouldn't be too terribly
excited about trading in gold.

We moved down into the series of these
three down candles as we expected.

If we lost the lows up here and we
had one small little move today,

uh, have a higher close and that's
on the heels of the weak dollar.

Um, we might get a series of one or
two up closes Sunday and Monday, and

then maybe see another round of selling
going into, uh, Tuesday's the London

and New York session on Tuesday.

And if that happens, we will be looking
for a move down below the short term low.

If we stay in the larger trading
range, that's actually pretty good.

I still want to see that favorably, but
right now it looks like it's going lower.

Silver.

We had our low objective of 1680 today.

We went down to a low of 1681.

I was off by one point.

Um, again, we were talking to how
retail you want me looking for

these ideas to find some support.

It doesn't work like that price is
going to draw right to the liquidity.

Liquidity is down in here and
it's going to most likely, um,

continue to go a little bit lower.

I think that we might need a little bit
of a move higher than what we saw today.

Intraday, I did talk about
going into an hourly chart.

I said that before non-farm
payroll, we'll probably see trade

up into this area over here.

And it gives us a cell signal.

It did, but again, we're not, we're
not trading off on payroll, but we

had a nice little response there.

Um, ultimately I think if we consolidate
it here and we'll make an Olympic

pass lower on weakness and the next.

So I think I look at a cot data.

Okay.

We're looking at the Euro and I
have the commitment traders report.

This is a chart you can pull out
from timing, charts.com, it's free.

And once you load up the, uh,
the pages, go get it, click the

symbol, go to the Euro and a pop up.

And you'll just add the
cot by clicking on this.

And it'll give you three options
that show the large traders, the

commercial traders in the speculators.

And just for sake of showing
you, it's just what it looks.

Pops up like this, and you only want to
get rid of, you want to get rid of the

large and you wanna get rid of this,
uh, red, uh, small speculate because

that's what your chart would look like.

Otherwise we're only
focusing on the commercial.

So just click on the green and the red
they'll go away leaving the blue line.

And that way you can look at.

12 months, which is about right here.

Okay.

So we have 12 months of price action,
and we're looking at the range.

So this is the lowest point at which the
commercials had a position, and this is

the highest they've had in their position
over net holdings for their trading.

So right now we're in the
low end of that range.

And this would be deemed as in
terms of their hedging program.

They're looking to sell.

Okay.

They're selling shortness, even
though we saw a nice little rally

today, um, the indication is they're
actually selling into this rally.

Next is the British pound go easy to cook.

That isn't changes for you.

This is actually a little bit more bullish
because if you look at the low here and

the highest high here, we're about above
the midway point with this range here.

So again, you can look at the, the.

On the commitment traders report

down here.

CSCO T it gives you the rating.

73,627.

That's their net position holding
and their low holding is 38,920.

Yeah, 30,929.

Then our highest holding is 100,164.

So it gives you a range to work with and
wherever you're currently at determine

where that is in terms of the midway point
of the highest range in the lowest range.

And you classify that for bullshit
bears and it's based on their

hedging program right now, I'm using
a look back period of three years.

You can use 12 months, but because
the markets have been in a range-bound

consolidation, I've elected to go with
a little bit farther range back and.

Right now this would be viewed
as slightly bullish on the pound.

I'd like to see the pound take out
this equal, low, and then reject that.

Cause then we can be all over this, like
white on rice and try to get some longs

for a longer-term
position, Canadian dollar.

Uh, you can see why.

Expecting a higher price on new S CAD
because the weakness on the commercials

heavily selling into this block of
action, you can see what prices been

doing since it's been going lower.

We are getting really close to
the lowest low of their holdings,

a negative position of 40,910.

So we're getting in what we deemed as
a low end for their hedging program.

So be mindful something in here
in this price action up here.

We may be looking for intermediate
term or short-term low forming,

and they may switch their hedging
programs and start buying.

If we take out these equal loads,
that also may be an indication

of potential reason to expect
higher prices on Canadian,

Japanese yen, heavy, heavy,
heavy net, long position.

Um, I'm not sure.

If that's going to be anything of
value to us right now because of the

general market condition where we're at.

But I think longer term, we
may be seeing the market.

If it can get above these equal
highs up here, we could be seeing a

larger move higher and maybe retest
back these overflows at 94, 9 94,

50 to 95 big figure in that area.

If we can break above these equal highs.

And that would be barest
for dollar yen Swiss, Frank.

Okay.

We're slightly bullish here as well.

And the range low for the
commercial scene here with a natural

position of 10,027 countries.

And a net long position
of 44,331 contract.

So that's our range.

Uh, we're about neutral.

Um, again, I think it's the reason why
we're seeing some stagnation on the

Swiss Franc, and we saw the indications
that Tuesday with debt failure to go

higher at that pair actually led the
failure of the dollar going higher.

And as a result, we've seen it do
pretty much nothing since Tuesday.

And that's it folks I'm going to a.

Be presenting your two sessions for
teaching of the short-term trading

tonight at 8:00 PM and it has homework.

And so you have to make sure you
have to engage yourself with that.

And then next week we'll be again,
resuming our pre-market analysis videos,

looking for specific setups in levels
and targets intraday for all the pairs.

So I want you to practice
what you're doing.

Thus far.

And what you'll learn tonight in the
two teachings is that applying that

with what I gave you in terms of the
analysis and what I think the market's

going to do directional wise and what
levels I'll reach for and where there

may be by herself to provide catalysts
for intraday market neck movement.

And as we're learning now, insure
week until I talk to you again,

next week, have pleasant weekend.