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LAUGHTER
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Wait. There we go.
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WOMAN LAUGHS
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Nellie, careful there.
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Sorry, Grandad.
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Ready? That's ready.
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OK. Ready, Nellie?
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Here I come!
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Aa-a-ah! Aa-a-ah!
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Run!
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Aargh! Aargh!
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I can't believe you're
still doing that.
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Whee!
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I'd like to welcome you to this
international
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conference for climate change, 2009.
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It is my great pleasure to
welcome our keynote speaker,
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who has been a pioneer in climate
science for the last 30 years,
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an expert in his field,
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world-renowned,
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and who will address us on his work
on the global instrumental
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temperature record, often referred
to as a hockey stick graph,
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which has been
so important in helping us
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to understand the cause of change
during the last 1,000 years.
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We are honoured to welcome
Prof Philip Jones.
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Go on, then.
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APPLAUSE
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Thank you.
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Thank you very much.
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PLUCKED VIOLIN MUSIC
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I'll call you to let you know
when I'm back.
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You're a star, Dad, thanks.
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Where the hell are you?
The train leaves in two minutes.
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Shit.
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Sorry.
I had to sort out the kids. Right...
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Let's see what level of a shit
storm we've got here.
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The University of East Anglia's
Climategate email controversy.
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Climategate. Climategate.
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The Climategate scandal.
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00:03:01,880 --> 00:03:04,279
Scientists are using words like
"trick".
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Climategate they're calling it,
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a new scandal over global warming
and it's burning up the Internet.
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00:03:09,920 --> 00:03:12,679
Have the
books been cooked on climate change?
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At worst it's junk science
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and it is a part of a massive,
international, scientific fraud.
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It's a communications consultancy.
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00:03:24,440 --> 00:03:25,999
Crisis management.
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00:03:26,000 --> 00:03:28,719
Neil Wallis,
ex-editor of a Sunday tabloid
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and his colleague Sam Bowen.
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Sam's background is more corporate
public relations.
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Can we trust them?
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I think we have to.
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We're running out of time.
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They're accusing him of fraud, Ruth.
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How is Phil?
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00:03:48,800 --> 00:03:51,119
You haven't seen a select
committee hearing?
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No.
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00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:54,519
It's no walk in the park.
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Eight people right
there in front of you
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and trying to put you on a skewer.
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00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:00,599
Right.
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00:04:00,600 --> 00:04:02,639
It's the House of Commons,
the government.
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An all-out vindication
and this Professor Philip Jones
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and the rest of them
have got half a chance.
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00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:12,279
The slightest whiff of a rap across
the knuckles and they're screwed.
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00:04:12,280 --> 00:04:13,919
So we've got one shot at it?
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To clear their names?
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And three weeks to do it.
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00:04:23,800 --> 00:04:26,919
Skulduggery, scientific
espionage and black propaganda.
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00:04:26,920 --> 00:04:29,680
Have scientists really been
manipulating the data?
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They claim to be victims of a crime,
right? They are.
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From the off everyone is all over
their arses like they're the criminals.
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Even the tree huggers,
the environment correspondents.
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We need institutions independent
of them declaring their innocence.
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I suppose they don't know, do they?
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What?
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If they are innocent or if Jones did
rig the data
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to exaggerate the increase
in temperatures?
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00:04:57,600 --> 00:04:59,079
Exactly,
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everyone is terrified
they're guilty as charged.
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00:05:02,400 --> 00:05:05,039
Maybe they're right to be.
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Tonight faces forensic
examination.
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The temperature graphs at the heart
of concern of about climate change
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will now be picked
over by experts.
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Edward Acton, Vice-Chancellor.
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Neil Wallis. Sam Bowen.
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Pleased to meet you. This is my
co-Vice-Chancellor, Trevor Davies.
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Trevor. Former director
of the Climatic Research Unit,
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also known as CRU.
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Three months ago.
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When you were hacked?
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No.
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00:05:59,480 --> 00:06:02,119
The hacking itself was some
months before.
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We only became aware of it
when the hacker uploaded the file.
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What was he called again?
Realclimate.org.
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00:06:09,640 --> 00:06:11,920
The university learned about it
the following day.
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And you, Phil.
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Is that when you found out?
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I...
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Yes, that's when we found out too.
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00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:37,919
And what was your response once you
knew there'd been a hack?
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We informed the police
and told them
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there had been an IT system
breach. A data theft.
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I think
that's the phrase that was used.
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Goodnight.
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Goodnight.
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00:07:03,280 --> 00:07:04,919
Thank you, Stella.
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You're very welcome.
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These are the press office documents
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and I've had made this for you -
it's the broadcast coverage.
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Good.
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We'll take a look at that tonight.
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Isn't it rather late?
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The House of Commons hearing,
it's in three weeks, right?
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Yes.
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The clock is ticking, Edward, so
yeah, we'll be working tonight.
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I see, good.
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Good.
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Jesus, they weren't joking.
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He's broken.
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Yep.
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Do you think he...?
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He did it?
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You'd expect him to be a bit more
pissed off, wouldn't you?
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If he was innocent.
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Are you sure I'm the right person
for this?
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I do corporate.
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Branding.
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Which means you're not digital.
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Look, whatever.
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00:08:01,800 --> 00:08:04,079
We're here now, aren't we?
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00:08:04,080 --> 00:08:06,599
Getting paid to get this lot
out of a hole,
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00:08:06,600 --> 00:08:08,240
guilty or not.
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SEAT BELT CLICKS
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CAR ENGINE STARTS
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OK, thanks for coming, everyone.
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Thank you.
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00:08:39,680 --> 00:08:42,080
Er, let's start with the headlines.
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Two days ago the Safer
Neighbourhoods team logged
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a data theft from a backup
server
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00:08:48,280 --> 00:08:51,839
at the University's Climatic
Research Unit, known as crew.
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Safer Neighbourhoods flagged
the call to Special Branch
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and last night Gold Command,
on my recommendation,
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initiated Operation Cabin
as a major investigation.
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The contents of the file
appears to be
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00:09:05,600 --> 00:09:07,559
around 1,000 emails
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00:09:07,560 --> 00:09:11,359
and other documents written over a
ten-year period by staff at CRU,
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00:09:11,360 --> 00:09:14,239
mostly by its current director,
Professor Philip Jones,
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00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:16,360
world-renowned climate
scientist.
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Gareth here is from Kinetic,
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00:09:20,200 --> 00:09:23,159
a defence contractor
specialising in cyber security.
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His team will lead on the digital
investigation,
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reporting directly to me as senior
investigating officer.
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The other two lines of inquiry,
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00:09:32,840 --> 00:09:36,319
physical breach of CRU or an
internal leak,
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will be overseen by Gold group.
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00:09:41,280 --> 00:09:45,319
This is a Category A investigation,
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so we can hopefully expect some
additional support
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from national
counterterrorism Scotland Yard.
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Yes.
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The Cat A status,
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sorry, boss, but who's been
murdered?
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No-one, DS Suppiah.
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00:10:00,960 --> 00:10:03,399
So the only crime that we're
invest...
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00:10:03,400 --> 00:10:05,599
The breach of the
Computer Misuse Act, section one,
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00:10:05,600 --> 00:10:08,879
and, depending what we turn up,
maybe section two.
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00:10:08,880 --> 00:10:13,159
Regardless, this is still
a Cat A investigation,
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00:10:13,160 --> 00:10:17,399
and I would appreciate it
if it were treated as such.
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00:10:17,400 --> 00:10:20,679
Right, if there aren't any more
questions, you know the drill.
169
00:10:20,680 --> 00:10:24,999
Any pissed-off employees, office
politics, financial vulnerability...
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00:10:25,000 --> 00:10:27,639
who had access,
what was the IT set-up,
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00:10:27,640 --> 00:10:30,959
any hint of a motivation,
I want to hear about it.
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00:10:30,960 --> 00:10:32,879
Thank you.
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00:10:32,880 --> 00:10:34,800
DS Suppiah, a word.
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00:10:41,720 --> 00:10:44,519
I appreciate this might just be
a staff member with an axe to
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00:10:44,520 --> 00:10:47,039
grind, or some hacker winning
a pissing contest,
176
00:10:47,040 --> 00:10:50,519
but if it isn't, look at
the timing, join the dots.
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00:10:50,520 --> 00:10:54,559
Three weeks before COP15,
the UN Climate Conference.
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00:10:54,560 --> 00:10:57,119
Think about it, if this
is someone trying to influence
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00:10:57,120 --> 00:10:59,439
the global response to
climate change,
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00:10:59,440 --> 00:11:02,320
well, then, I'd say maybe
Cat A isn't high enough.
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00:11:18,160 --> 00:11:22,880
CAMERA CLICKS
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00:11:47,480 --> 00:11:51,799
The stolen emails are mostly
conversations between colleagues,
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00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:53,799
climate scientists,
here and in the US.
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And these conversations,
they've been taken wholesale?
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No, because whoever
compiled this file,
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00:11:58,760 --> 00:12:00,559
they knew what
they were looking for.
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00:12:00,560 --> 00:12:02,439
These emails had been selected,
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probably using a word
search for certain phrases.
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00:12:04,800 --> 00:12:08,479
The first place a link is
posted along with this comment here,
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"a miracle has happened",
is climateaudit.org.
191
00:12:12,640 --> 00:12:17,360
It's a climate sceptic blog run
by this man, Steve McIntyre.
192
00:12:18,600 --> 00:12:22,039
He's receiving the link,
he's not...? He's not sending it?
193
00:12:22,040 --> 00:12:25,119
Yeah,
but he's got history with Jones.
194
00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:30,279
Erm, McIntyre is a Canadian
ex-mining consultant turned...
195
00:12:30,280 --> 00:12:33,439
self-appointed climate
science fact checker.
196
00:12:33,440 --> 00:12:34,839
If you look at his blog posts
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00:12:34,840 --> 00:12:37,399
and the comment streams
of his website, and the emails,
198
00:12:37,400 --> 00:12:40,719
it reveals that there is an
established relationship with Jones.
199
00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:46,479
And it seems as far back as 2002,
he's been asking Jones for his data.
200
00:12:46,480 --> 00:12:49,239
Which Jones gave him?
201
00:12:49,240 --> 00:12:51,399
Yeah. Initially.
202
00:12:51,400 --> 00:12:54,839
But then, McIntyre started using it
to criticise Jones,
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00:12:54,840 --> 00:12:58,319
to undermine his career,
Jones backed off.
204
00:12:58,320 --> 00:13:00,680
Mclntyre, well, he got frustrated.
205
00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:05,879
Earlier this year, he persuaded
his entire database to send
206
00:13:05,880 --> 00:13:09,639
freedom of information requests to
CRU, asking for their raw data.
207
00:13:09,640 --> 00:13:11,879
Which they did. Yeah.
208
00:13:11,880 --> 00:13:16,120
Jones was flooded,
and I mean flooded, with requests.
209
00:13:17,520 --> 00:13:20,799
60 in one week, look.
It's a bloody tsunami.
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00:13:20,800 --> 00:13:22,679
Annoying, but not illegal.
211
00:13:22,680 --> 00:13:24,759
Yes, but that's where it gets
interesting.
212
00:13:24,760 --> 00:13:27,719
Our initial analysis of the hard
drives and servers suggests
213
00:13:27,720 --> 00:13:30,879
that the unit was hacked several
times between that same time period.
214
00:13:30,880 --> 00:13:33,639
Are you saying there was more than
one breach? Not only that.
215
00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:36,839
Mclntyre's requests were formally
refused by the university.
216
00:13:36,840 --> 00:13:41,280
And four days later, a file
of stolen materials goes live.
217
00:13:43,120 --> 00:13:46,280
I have not falsified any data!
218
00:13:53,360 --> 00:13:55,200
Collusion?
219
00:13:57,040 --> 00:14:00,920
They can't argue with the facts.
That's what they do all the time!
220
00:14:04,960 --> 00:14:06,519
Do you really think this is them?
221
00:14:06,520 --> 00:14:08,760
Well, of course it's them!
222
00:14:30,480 --> 00:14:32,400
I'm sorry.
223
00:14:33,760 --> 00:14:36,360
I haven't done anything wrong, Ruth.
224
00:14:44,560 --> 00:14:47,679
Are you suggesting that
McIntyre was responsible? No.
225
00:14:47,680 --> 00:14:49,679
It was a relatively
sophisticated attack,
226
00:14:49,680 --> 00:14:52,679
he wouldn't have the capability.
But there was a coordination.
227
00:14:52,680 --> 00:14:54,479
More likely someone else
with a vested
228
00:14:54,480 --> 00:14:57,239
interest in tracking his disputes
with CRU.
229
00:14:57,240 --> 00:15:00,999
Yeah, you should also speak to
this guy. This is Steve Mosher.
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00:15:01,000 --> 00:15:02,639
He's an established lukewarmer.
231
00:15:02,640 --> 00:15:04,599
He doesn't believe that
climate change
232
00:15:04,600 --> 00:15:07,319
is as serious as everyone's
making out.
233
00:15:07,320 --> 00:15:10,599
When the emails came out,
he was in charge of finding
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00:15:10,600 --> 00:15:13,080
the extracts before they were
taken down.
235
00:15:14,600 --> 00:15:17,759
"I've just completed Mike's nature
trick..."
236
00:15:17,760 --> 00:15:20,599
"to hide the decline."
237
00:15:20,600 --> 00:15:22,279
"Cheers, Phil."
238
00:15:22,280 --> 00:15:24,599
And these are the
extracts that are penetrating now?
239
00:15:24,600 --> 00:15:27,359
Yeah. It's a
very effective selection.
240
00:15:27,360 --> 00:15:30,040
Mosher knew exactly what
he was doing.
241
00:15:39,080 --> 00:15:40,999
Have your comms team got Phil's
comment on why
242
00:15:41,000 --> 00:15:42,439
he used the word trick?
243
00:15:42,440 --> 00:15:45,399
Already on the website, along with
an acknowledgement of the hack.
244
00:15:45,400 --> 00:15:47,879
Look, I think we should do more -
defend the science.
245
00:15:47,880 --> 00:15:49,159
We'd be inviting an attack.
246
00:15:49,160 --> 00:15:51,319
I'm telling you,
there's an established history.
247
00:15:51,320 --> 00:15:52,679
It's a bunch of bloggers, Trevor.
248
00:15:52,680 --> 00:15:54,839
Just let them burn the story
out amongst themselves.
249
00:15:54,840 --> 00:15:57,119
There was a piece in the Guardian,
and surely, it's quite...
250
00:15:57,120 --> 00:16:00,039
Our defence would only raise more
questions, give the story oxygen.
251
00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:02,959
We don't want the science
questioned, either. Look...
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00:16:02,960 --> 00:16:05,439
if we can get through the weekend
without The Today Programme
253
00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:08,559
calling us, I really think
we'll be fine, OK?
254
00:16:08,560 --> 00:16:10,519
25 to eight.
255
00:16:10,520 --> 00:16:14,039
Those who are on the sceptic side
have seized on these emails.
256
00:16:14,040 --> 00:16:16,479
One of those sceptics is
Lord Lawson, the former Chancellor,
257
00:16:16,480 --> 00:16:18,479
whose book, An Appeal To Reason...
258
00:16:18,480 --> 00:16:22,039
On the face of it, it looks as
if the raw data were being
259
00:16:22,040 --> 00:16:25,199
manipulated in order to prove what
they wanted to prove,
260
00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:29,919
that they were refusing to allow
other scientists outside
261
00:16:29,920 --> 00:16:32,079
access to the raw data, that they
262
00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:36,319
were talking about destroying
various files in order to prevent
263
00:16:36,320 --> 00:16:39,479
data being revealed through
the Freedom of Information Act.
264
00:16:39,480 --> 00:16:41,879
Now, these are very,
very serious things.
265
00:16:41,880 --> 00:16:44,439
It may be that there is an innocent
explanation for all this,
266
00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:45,759
but what is absolutely clear,
267
00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:49,079
because this is the basis on which
policy decisions are being made,
268
00:16:49,080 --> 00:16:50,839
to some extent, by the government,
269
00:16:50,840 --> 00:16:54,639
and by governments around the world,
it has also tarnished very
270
00:16:54,640 --> 00:16:57,799
badly the international
reputation of British science.
271
00:16:57,800 --> 00:16:59,640
They'll need...
272
00:17:03,920 --> 00:17:06,399
It's just, we really need some
clarity, especially on why
273
00:17:06,400 --> 00:17:09,480
some of the temperature data
can't be released to the public.
274
00:17:11,280 --> 00:17:13,480
Shell.
275
00:17:28,800 --> 00:17:32,439
"Dear Phil Jones -
you should kill yourself.
276
00:17:32,440 --> 00:17:34,199
"You lying prick, arsehole.
277
00:17:34,200 --> 00:17:37,399
"And if you don't, I'll be more than
happy to do it for you.
278
00:17:37,400 --> 00:17:41,120
"And your family."
Oh, God. That's terrible.
279
00:17:42,600 --> 00:17:44,680
We'll inform the police.
280
00:17:46,880 --> 00:17:50,040
Look, Ruth, if he does come round
a bit, would you mind...
281
00:17:51,200 --> 00:17:53,679
He's the only one who knows
the truth about the emails,
282
00:17:53,680 --> 00:17:56,520
the temperature...
I know, believe me, I know.
283
00:17:58,840 --> 00:18:00,960
Even his voice has changed, Trevor.
284
00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:05,320
Like it's stuck in his throat.
285
00:18:36,720 --> 00:18:39,679
Are you and Grandad coming
to my school play, Granny?
286
00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:41,599
Of course, sweetheart.
287
00:18:41,600 --> 00:18:45,239
Did...
It might just be Granny this time.
288
00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:48,319
OK. OK!
289
00:18:48,320 --> 00:18:50,559
Bye. Bye.
290
00:18:50,560 --> 00:18:53,239
Bye, Granny, see you soon. Bye!
291
00:18:53,240 --> 00:18:56,200
RUTH SOBS
292
00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:03,480
These are the most damaging
extracts.
293
00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:07,479
Can you delete any emails
you may have had with Keith?
294
00:19:07,480 --> 00:19:09,679
Keith will do likewise.
295
00:19:09,680 --> 00:19:12,839
"We're choosing the periods
to show warming.
296
00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:15,999
"I've just completed Mike's
nature trick...
297
00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:18,039
"to hide the decline."
298
00:19:18,040 --> 00:19:21,279
The press inquiries haven't stopped
all morning, it's unprecedented.
299
00:19:21,280 --> 00:19:23,679
Like nothing anyone's seen before.
And from the US now to...
300
00:19:23,680 --> 00:19:25,919
What is it they want,
specifically? Phil.
301
00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:28,159
The extracts are mostly
from his emails.
302
00:19:28,160 --> 00:19:29,599
And he's the director of CRU.
303
00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:32,679
They want to know why all of CRU's
data isn't available as well.
304
00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:35,639
But in terms of people, Phil.
No-one else.
305
00:19:35,640 --> 00:19:37,799
I'm afraid that's not going
to be possible.
306
00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:40,319
Well, surely you don't stand by his
comments on the website? Yeah.
307
00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:42,039
Why isn't Phil available?
308
00:19:42,040 --> 00:19:44,680
It would be the clearest way to
set things straight. I agree.
309
00:19:46,200 --> 00:19:49,040
I went round there this morning
after the Lawson interview.
310
00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:52,480
The man's struggling.
311
00:19:55,000 --> 00:19:57,599
30 years ago, do you remember,
312
00:19:57,600 --> 00:20:00,839
you had that offer of work
in California?
313
00:20:00,840 --> 00:20:04,200
And we came here to talk about it,
about the kids moving school.
314
00:20:06,360 --> 00:20:08,320
What it would all mean.
315
00:20:09,520 --> 00:20:11,960
And you got so excited.
316
00:20:13,600 --> 00:20:15,840
Not about going, but about staying.
317
00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:20,120
About what that meant.
318
00:20:24,720 --> 00:20:26,600
Do you remember?
319
00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:31,600
Philip, if I can remember,
I know you do.
320
00:20:33,680 --> 00:20:37,039
"It's going to be important,"
that's what you said.
321
00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:40,519
Politicians were just starting to
talk about global warming,
322
00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:44,919
and you said that when
they finally came to act on it,
323
00:20:44,920 --> 00:20:47,319
they'd needed data they could trust.
324
00:20:47,320 --> 00:20:51,039
They'd need evidence,
and that you, CRU, would be
325
00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:53,159
able to give it to them.
326
00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:55,160
Well, that time is now, Philip.
327
00:20:57,120 --> 00:20:59,000
And you were right.
328
00:21:00,800 --> 00:21:03,480
They do need your evidence.
329
00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:11,240
Which is why we can't let these
bastards destroy all you've done.
330
00:21:13,120 --> 00:21:15,280
It's too important.
331
00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:22,240
You're too important.
332
00:21:28,840 --> 00:21:32,039
"I've found what I can do, Ruth."
333
00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:34,280
That's what you said.
334
00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:39,240
"And the place I can do it."
335
00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:51,920
God,
and I so wanted to go to California!
336
00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:55,960
Did you? Yeah! RUTH LAUGHS
337
00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:08,320
You're going to have to speak up,
Philip.
338
00:22:10,480 --> 00:22:13,279
We'll issue a press statement with
Phil's comment from the website.
339
00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:16,039
And let's see if he'll do a press
Association interview, at least.
340
00:22:16,040 --> 00:22:17,599
Just print, no TV.
341
00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:21,039
Let's announce an independent
inquiry into the allegations
342
00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:23,759
and into the actions of our staff.
343
00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:26,319
If there has been malpractice,
344
00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:29,079
we must show we're
keen as mustard to investigate.
345
00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:30,840
And we need support, too.
346
00:22:31,960 --> 00:22:33,920
Public support.
347
00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:41,039
Thanks, Chris. Any help in releasing
the data is hugely appreciated.
348
00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:44,279
We were wondering if your department
could give a statement to...
349
00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:47,439
I'll see what I can do. We really
need help on this one, Chris.
350
00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:49,399
Trevor, sorry, look, I've got to go.
351
00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:51,679
Sir David, have you
seen the CRU fallout?
352
00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:53,199
Christ, haven't I?
353
00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:55,519
What the bloody
hell were they thinking about?
354
00:22:55,520 --> 00:22:58,799
I mean, I wouldn't accept such loose
practices from my students.
355
00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:01,639
Well, siege mentality.
I mean, the deniers have had him
356
00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:03,959
in their sights for as long
as I can remember. That is...
357
00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:05,719
precisely when
you have to be careful,
358
00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:07,079
when you think you're in a battle.
359
00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:09,119
I mean, not to put
the data in the public domain.
360
00:23:09,120 --> 00:23:11,479
Well, to be fair, Sir David, it
isn't theirs to give.
361
00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:12,879
What do you mean?
362
00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:16,279
Well, CRU built its models on data
from meteorological services.
363
00:23:16,280 --> 00:23:19,160
And sometimes, that data
comes with nondisclosure agreements.
364
00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:23,399
Sir David King, School of Enterprise
and the Environment,
365
00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:25,160
Oxford University.
366
00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:28,559
Thanks very much.
367
00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:31,599
I've been on the
phone all morning to the Met Office,
368
00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:34,399
putting pressure on them to give
clearance to release all the data.
369
00:23:34,400 --> 00:23:36,640
And? Not yet.
370
00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:39,639
Any news about the hack?
371
00:23:39,640 --> 00:23:41,999
Nothing I've heard. Any thoughts?
372
00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:43,519
Well, take your pick.
373
00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:45,799
Could be the Russians, the Saudis,
the oil companies,
374
00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:49,319
anybody who's got money in the game.
But you know, it's clever,
375
00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:52,200
going after the data
behind the modelling.
376
00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:55,159
I don't understand why everyone
377
00:23:55,160 --> 00:23:57,119
expects science models to be
perfect.
378
00:23:57,120 --> 00:23:59,559
I mean, no-one ever goes after
economic models, do they?
379
00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:02,919
No, that's because nobody's
trying to undermine the economics.
380
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:04,559
LIFT BELL PINGS
381
00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:07,599
Do you really think it will affect
the COP in Copenhagen?
382
00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:09,759
Well, it might
scare the horses a bit,
383
00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:12,839
but no, this COP is
dead in the water anyway.
384
00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:15,719
You really think so? Come on, Chris.
385
00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:19,119
I mean, the USA are not going to
sign up to their commitment
386
00:24:19,120 --> 00:24:21,879
to carbon reductions
unless it's voluntary, and
387
00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:24,880
if they won't sign, then neither
will the Chinese or the Russians.
388
00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:32,799
Look, do what you can about getting
the Met to release that data.
389
00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:35,319
It could douse the flames.
390
00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:38,239
Now, the head of a British climate
research institute has
391
00:24:38,240 --> 00:24:41,679
stepped aside after leaked emails
were said to suggest that the
392
00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:44,679
case for global warming had
been exaggerated.
393
00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:47,639
Phil Jones, at the University
of East Anglia, will relinquish
394
00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:50,319
his duties while an
independent review is carried out.
395
00:24:50,320 --> 00:24:52,920
Our environment correspondent,
David Shukman...
396
00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:51,599
There are more stolen emails. No,
I... I'm saying there's a lot more.
397
00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:55,119
Almost 200,000 in total.
Shit! 200...?
398
00:25:55,120 --> 00:25:58,839
So, the really odd thing, that
they left the cache on the server.
399
00:25:58,840 --> 00:26:00,359
Which is almost like they, well...
400
00:26:00,360 --> 00:26:03,279
I guess it's almost like they wanted
us to know. What are you saying?
401
00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:04,559
Well, it means that CRU wasn't
402
00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:06,239
the only climate unit
that was attacked.
403
00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:08,079
There were more hacks? Attempts.
404
00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:10,039
CRU was the only
successful breach.
405
00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:11,799
What were the other attempts?
406
00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:15,359
OK, so, persons unknown posing
as network technicians tried to
407
00:26:15,360 --> 00:26:18,119
gain access to climate science
offices at the University
408
00:26:18,120 --> 00:26:20,119
of Victoria, British Columbia.
409
00:26:20,120 --> 00:26:22,799
And there were attempts to access
the servers at the Canadian
410
00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:25,879
Centre for Climatology and
Analysis, the National Center
411
00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:28,679
of Atmospheric Research in
Colorado,
412
00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:30,599
and an attempted unauthorised entry
413
00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:33,999
to the computer systems at the
State Department Climate Bureau.
414
00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:37,240
And when, when was all this?
This is all in the last 12 months.
415
00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:43,000
You do know he's the victim?
416
00:26:44,840 --> 00:26:46,639
It's his emails that were stolen.
417
00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:49,239
It's him that's being dragged
through the papers.
418
00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:51,039
Why aren't you going after
who did this?
419
00:26:51,040 --> 00:26:53,720
I realise this must be upsetting.
No-one's getting the truth.
420
00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:57,400
Just what they read, what they hear.
421
00:27:00,360 --> 00:27:04,239
Where are you going? Just
down to the station. We just... Why?
422
00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:07,839
We need to print the statement
and have it signed immediately.
423
00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:10,119
Well, use our bloody printer!
Ruth, it's fine.
424
00:27:10,120 --> 00:27:12,200
We'll be 30 minutes, I promise.
425
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:22,639
This hockey stick graph,
the one that you
426
00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:26,199
mention in the interview, why is it
so important exactly?
427
00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:27,479
Well, it's...
428
00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:30,359
It's a reconstruction
of global temperature, a...
429
00:27:30,360 --> 00:27:35,680
a window into the past,
I suppose, back 1,000 years.
430
00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:48,040
All these are decades here.
431
00:27:50,120 --> 00:27:52,479
That is the handle of the stick.
432
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:57,439
And here, in the 19th century,
when industrialisation takes off,
433
00:27:57,440 --> 00:28:01,039
erm, up until now, that's the...
434
00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:05,559
erm, that's the blade, when
temperatures increase dramatically.
435
00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:09,919
This is your work?
Well, I contributed.
436
00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:13,319
CRU was the first unit
to be dedicated to the
437
00:28:13,320 --> 00:28:16,199
subject of climate change.
438
00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:18,599
We devoted more time than
anyone else to...
439
00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:22,319
to, erm... gather
the temperature data.
440
00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:26,639
It's not just from across the world,
but from across time.
441
00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:28,360
Wow.
442
00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:33,799
From before we had thermometer
readings, erm...
443
00:28:33,800 --> 00:28:37,640
historical, erm, records,
ships' logs.
444
00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:44,719
And then even further back, er,
proxy data, such as tree rings
445
00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:48,239
and ice cores. I saw the tree
rings on the walls of your office.
446
00:28:48,240 --> 00:28:50,000
They're beautiful.
447
00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:53,519
Well, we... Erm...
448
00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:57,999
all of that, the proxy and
historical data goes into the graph.
449
00:28:58,000 --> 00:29:01,439
That's... It, erm...
450
00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:04,239
helps make the past...
451
00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:06,520
readable.
452
00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:14,000
Best get you home, yeah.
453
00:29:16,120 --> 00:29:18,160
Thank you.
454
00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:24,879
Who's doing this, Trevor? Who knows?
455
00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:28,159
Plenty of vested interests
would like Copenhagen to fail.
456
00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:30,240
I know why they're doing it to us,
though.
457
00:29:31,480 --> 00:29:34,039
The hockey stick graph.
Yes...?
458
00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:36,639
The one showing the rise in global
temperatures?
459
00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:39,399
Yeah, CRU's work has been
keystone to that graph.
460
00:29:39,400 --> 00:29:42,519
I mean, it was meant to be
the final word in the debate.
461
00:29:42,520 --> 00:29:44,519
The science behind it is complex,
462
00:29:44,520 --> 00:29:48,799
though the way it conveys it is
simple, it cuts through the noise.
463
00:29:48,800 --> 00:29:51,039
That's what the sceptics don't like.
464
00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:53,919
Ever since it was published,
they've known, if they're to keep
465
00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:58,079
the debate going, they have to cast
doubt on the hockey stick.
466
00:29:58,080 --> 00:29:59,519
Crafty buggers.
467
00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:02,479
Sorry. That was a long one.
468
00:30:02,480 --> 00:30:05,519
Must have done
over 20 interviews now.
469
00:30:05,520 --> 00:30:08,319
It's like speaking into a storm.
470
00:30:08,320 --> 00:30:11,199
No-one can hear us.
471
00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:12,999
Or wants to.
472
00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:16,079
We're being drowned
out by a sigh of relief.
473
00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:17,359
Relief?
474
00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:20,199
Well, imagine if you woke up
tomorrow to be told you don't
475
00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:22,040
have to worry about climate change.
476
00:30:23,840 --> 00:30:26,799
Millions of dollars have
gone into the denial campaigns.
477
00:30:26,800 --> 00:30:28,719
And most of it to achieve
exactly this,
478
00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:31,919
to make the science seem uncertain.
479
00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:33,759
It's been going on for years,
480
00:30:33,760 --> 00:30:36,359
ever since we first started
talking about actually doing
481
00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:39,719
something about global warming.
Which was when, exactly?
482
00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:43,720
Oh, late '80s. So those campaigns...
483
00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:48,959
essentially, they bought
themselves time with those millions.
484
00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:52,080
They've had decades to prepare
a receptive environment.
485
00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:55,159
Whoever hacked into us...
486
00:30:55,160 --> 00:30:59,759
All they had to do was release those
emails in the right places
487
00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:01,719
and sit back and watch.
488
00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:05,879
They've had 20 years to
prepare for this. We've had days.
489
00:31:05,880 --> 00:31:07,680
We need crisis management advice.
490
00:31:09,320 --> 00:31:13,359
It's a straight choice.
Duck it or fight it.
491
00:31:13,360 --> 00:31:16,919
But how do we fight it if the
world wants Phil and the data
492
00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:18,999
and we can't provide either.
493
00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:22,839
OK, well, if Phil can't do
the interviews, then you have to.
494
00:31:22,840 --> 00:31:25,440
What about the independent inquiry?
495
00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:30,919
No-one gets hacked for the sake
of it. There's always intent.
496
00:31:30,920 --> 00:31:34,639
The UN Climate Conference, the COP,
it opens next week, right?
497
00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:37,319
Yes. So, it's a strategy.
498
00:31:37,320 --> 00:31:39,839
Someone's decided to take
positive action to...
499
00:31:39,840 --> 00:31:43,799
We don't actually know if that's
the case. Nothing's a coincidence.
500
00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:45,719
Sow doubt where there's certainty,
501
00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:49,119
apply a minor inconsistency to
the entire evidence, discredit
502
00:31:49,120 --> 00:31:54,479
a group of people, muddy the debate,
all to achieve policy outcry.
503
00:31:54,480 --> 00:31:56,599
It's hardly new.
504
00:31:56,600 --> 00:31:58,919
Straight out of the tobacco
companies' playbook
505
00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:02,439
when they were stalling for time
on cigarettes and cancer. Mm.
506
00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:05,439
Other interest groups have used
the same strategies around
507
00:32:05,440 --> 00:32:07,999
pesticides, the ozone hole,
acid rain.
508
00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:12,080
It's not like we haven't seen
these tactics before. No.
509
00:32:13,280 --> 00:32:16,440
Never with the internet. The blocks.
510
00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:21,280
Yeah, that IS new. I'll admit
there's no playbook for that.
511
00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:26,880
Look...
512
00:32:28,960 --> 00:32:30,680
This isn't going to be easy.
513
00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:36,399
For a start, you're a... white,
middle-aged, posh man. Hm.
514
00:32:36,400 --> 00:32:40,520
It's going to be hard for you to go
on TV and come across as likeable.
515
00:32:41,600 --> 00:32:43,399
Yes...
516
00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:44,800
Yes, I see.
517
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:47,960
It's your only choice.
518
00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:50,480
Do nothing now...
519
00:32:52,120 --> 00:32:53,840
that's as good as being guilty.
520
00:33:01,560 --> 00:33:04,839
Now, it's hard to believe that some
emails written on a university
521
00:33:04,840 --> 00:33:07,479
campus in Norwich could be
quite so damaging.
522
00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:10,879
Today, Saudi Arabia's chief climate
change negotiator, no less,
523
00:33:10,880 --> 00:33:13,599
said the leaked emails
from scientists at the Climate
524
00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:17,079
Research Unit at the University
of East Anglia will have a huge
525
00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:20,560
impact on next week's Copenhagen
summit, even as it's...
526
00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:29,400
You shouldn't be watching that.
Why not? It's what I've done.
527
00:33:31,880 --> 00:33:33,040
That's not true.
528
00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:39,920
They've finally found a way
to get me, Ruth.
529
00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:44,000
And they'll, well...
530
00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:50,560
pull at this thread
until it all unravels!
531
00:33:54,600 --> 00:33:57,000
They've won, Ruth. No. They haven't!
532
00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:01,480
They know the truth is out
there now.
533
00:34:03,280 --> 00:34:07,599
So all they can do is try to
find ways of delaying how soon it
534
00:34:07,600 --> 00:34:08,839
reaches everyone.
535
00:34:08,840 --> 00:34:13,199
That's not the actions of people
who've won. Philip,
536
00:34:13,200 --> 00:34:16,560
that's the desperation of people
who've lost.
537
00:34:18,960 --> 00:34:21,519
You're forgetting something.
538
00:34:21,520 --> 00:34:23,400
What?
539
00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:30,400
Not everyone wants the truth
to reach them.
540
00:35:03,960 --> 00:35:07,840
So, what do you think?
I think they're screwed.
541
00:35:23,720 --> 00:35:26,719
The blogs I get and the American
right wing networks,
542
00:35:26,720 --> 00:35:29,199
but the mainstream
media following their lead...
543
00:35:29,200 --> 00:35:31,239
The BBC, for Christ's sake!
544
00:35:31,240 --> 00:35:34,799
Which is why we need to get him
out there. Phil?
545
00:35:34,800 --> 00:35:38,880
We need to put a human face on this,
before the House of Commons hearing.
546
00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:42,959
Get the public back on our side.
He could barely talk.
547
00:35:42,960 --> 00:35:45,239
Which is why it has to be print.
548
00:35:45,240 --> 00:35:46,679
No TV.
549
00:35:46,680 --> 00:35:49,400
You're serious?
We'll have to coach him.
550
00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:54,599
Sunday Times, front page.
Do you think they'll take it?
551
00:35:54,600 --> 00:35:56,040
They'll love it!
552
00:35:57,520 --> 00:35:59,999
It's what they've been baying for,
isn't it?
553
00:36:00,000 --> 00:36:01,679
The man at the heart of it.
554
00:36:01,680 --> 00:36:05,319
Edward tried his best,
but no-one wanted to know.
555
00:36:05,320 --> 00:36:07,479
So we throw them to the lions.
556
00:36:07,480 --> 00:36:10,879
With a couple of lion
tamers in the room.
557
00:36:10,880 --> 00:36:13,759
But yeah, if it means we're the
ones feeding them for a bit.
558
00:36:13,760 --> 00:36:15,639
That's exactly what we do.
559
00:36:15,640 --> 00:36:18,119
No time for anything else.
560
00:36:18,120 --> 00:36:21,520
Not with that House of Commons
committee breathing down our necks.
561
00:36:23,560 --> 00:36:26,000
We'll coach him here. Today.
562
00:36:28,400 --> 00:36:31,160
Are you sure this is the right...?
I'm positive.
563
00:36:33,080 --> 00:36:36,360
Unless you want to cut him loose.
Out of the question.
564
00:36:39,480 --> 00:36:40,919
Well, I had to check.
565
00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:44,919
Because if it's the reputation
of the university you're trying
566
00:36:44,920 --> 00:36:46,480
to save... It isn't.
567
00:36:48,520 --> 00:36:53,559
It isn't? Well, yes, it is,
but that's no longer the priority.
568
00:36:53,560 --> 00:36:56,679
This is about more than
the university now.
569
00:36:56,680 --> 00:36:59,519
Much more. The science?
570
00:36:59,520 --> 00:37:04,160
The truth.
Right. That's what's at stake here.
571
00:37:06,760 --> 00:37:08,879
And who gets to tell the truth,
572
00:37:08,880 --> 00:37:10,639
or not,
573
00:37:10,640 --> 00:37:14,440
about something that affects every
living thing on the planet.
574
00:37:24,400 --> 00:37:28,799
Mea culpa. That's what you open
with, before anything else.
575
00:37:28,800 --> 00:37:31,999
I'll brief the journalists to
ask about the data stuff first,
576
00:37:32,000 --> 00:37:35,679
the Freedom of Information request.
When he does, you put your hands up.
577
00:37:35,680 --> 00:37:38,759
Admit you got it wrong... But those
requests, they weren't genuine.
578
00:37:38,760 --> 00:37:40,759
Yes, we know...
The data was already...
579
00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:42,519
But admitting that you got
frustrated,
580
00:37:42,520 --> 00:37:45,159
you could have handled it better,
that's very relatable. Yeah.
581
00:37:45,160 --> 00:37:47,799
Getting pissed off with a bunch
of timewasters who want to prove
582
00:37:47,800 --> 00:37:50,719
you wrong, there's no shame in that.
No data was destroyed.
583
00:37:50,720 --> 00:37:52,359
And that's exactly what you'll say,
584
00:37:52,360 --> 00:37:54,999
after you've acknowledged what you
could have done better.
585
00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:58,480
You say it then and people will
listen. It'll sound true.
586
00:38:03,240 --> 00:38:04,680
It is true.
587
00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:09,719
But I need to believe you
when you say it is.
588
00:38:09,720 --> 00:38:11,520
That's all that matters.
589
00:38:16,520 --> 00:38:19,799
Right, so, we take a little
bit of this and pop it in here.
590
00:38:19,800 --> 00:38:23,679
And then, if you take your finger
and poke a nice hole in there.
591
00:38:23,680 --> 00:38:26,839
That's it. And then,
what do you think you do?
592
00:38:26,840 --> 00:38:28,920
Put an acorn in? Yes. Just the one.
593
00:38:34,480 --> 00:38:36,400
There. Maybe a little bit more.
594
00:38:41,240 --> 00:38:45,559
So, a trick is just a clever
way of doing something.
595
00:38:45,560 --> 00:38:49,319
In statistical modelling, yes,
or in maths, a short cut.
596
00:38:49,320 --> 00:38:53,319
It still sounds suspect.
A trick of the trade? A technique?
597
00:38:53,320 --> 00:38:55,559
If you like,
a solution to a problem.
598
00:38:55,560 --> 00:38:58,879
But nothing more? No. Good.
599
00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:02,399
But then,
we get to hide the decline.
600
00:39:02,400 --> 00:39:05,639
Sent everyone through the roof,
this one, hasn't it?
601
00:39:05,640 --> 00:39:08,200
Sarah Palin, the US networks,
the papers.
602
00:39:09,480 --> 00:39:10,999
What's your defence?
603
00:39:11,000 --> 00:39:13,079
Because it had better be
a bloody good one.
604
00:39:13,080 --> 00:39:15,759
In as few words as possible,
simple and short.
605
00:39:15,760 --> 00:39:17,440
And in a way I'll believe it.
606
00:39:22,280 --> 00:39:23,519
It's about tree rings.
607
00:39:23,520 --> 00:39:25,319
What?
608
00:39:25,320 --> 00:39:27,359
Well, the decline.
609
00:39:27,360 --> 00:39:29,479
It isn't about temperatures.
610
00:39:29,480 --> 00:39:30,920
Go on.
611
00:39:34,000 --> 00:39:38,559
To predict the future, we've got
to understand the past.
612
00:39:38,560 --> 00:39:41,840
Hubert Lamb's... I'm not interested.
Try again.
613
00:39:45,320 --> 00:39:46,760
Go on, Phil.
614
00:39:49,320 --> 00:39:53,319
Temperature records consist of two
kinds of measurements.
615
00:39:53,320 --> 00:39:57,879
From around the mid 19th century, we
have actual instrument recordings...
616
00:39:57,880 --> 00:39:59,200
Try it as a question.
617
00:40:02,920 --> 00:40:04,519
Um...
618
00:40:04,520 --> 00:40:08,599
How do we obtain
measurements from further back,
619
00:40:08,600 --> 00:40:13,359
from before we have instrument
recordings? Good! I have no idea.
620
00:40:13,360 --> 00:40:17,839
Educate me. How do we? We use, um,
proxy data... Sorry, Phil.
621
00:40:17,840 --> 00:40:22,360
How else might you explain "proxy"?
What is it? Um...
622
00:40:26,320 --> 00:40:27,640
The...
623
00:40:29,040 --> 00:40:31,480
The natural world has a memory.
624
00:40:32,560 --> 00:40:38,079
It can preserve the physical
characteristics of the past.
625
00:40:38,080 --> 00:40:42,999
Past temperatures? Er, yes.
Um, and weather events.
626
00:40:43,000 --> 00:40:44,999
What kind of characteristics?
627
00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:48,880
Well, concentrations of oxygen
isotopes in ice.
628
00:40:49,920 --> 00:40:54,399
Or the composition
and annual banding in corals.
629
00:40:54,400 --> 00:40:59,039
Or the... The width and the density
of annual tree ring growth.
630
00:40:59,040 --> 00:41:00,600
Tree rings?
631
00:41:02,520 --> 00:41:07,199
Yes, they're wider in a season
of good growth, when it's warmer,
632
00:41:07,200 --> 00:41:11,319
and narrower in a season of
restricted growth, when it's colder.
633
00:41:11,320 --> 00:41:14,759
So, you add this stuff,
natural characteristics, to the
634
00:41:14,760 --> 00:41:17,799
instrument measurements
and you get a record of temperatures
635
00:41:17,800 --> 00:41:20,480
stretching back in time
before thermometers?
636
00:41:21,680 --> 00:41:25,120
It isn't quite that simple.
Put simply, though, is Neil right?
637
00:41:26,440 --> 00:41:28,039
Well, yes.
638
00:41:28,040 --> 00:41:31,799
So, what's being hidden,
then, in the paper,
639
00:41:31,800 --> 00:41:34,040
you were discussing in that email?
640
00:41:35,480 --> 00:41:38,839
I was writing about one diagram,
641
00:41:38,840 --> 00:41:43,560
not a scientific paper. Phil, split
any more hairs and I'll go bald.
642
00:41:47,280 --> 00:41:51,599
It's OK, Phil.
Just try to answer the question.
643
00:41:51,600 --> 00:41:52,880
What were you hiding?
644
00:42:06,440 --> 00:42:08,960
This is the diagram.
645
00:42:11,440 --> 00:42:13,279
The blue line is the hockey stick,
646
00:42:13,280 --> 00:42:15,799
the red line is my own similar
reconstructions
647
00:42:15,800 --> 00:42:20,439
and the green line was produced
by my colleague, Keith Briffa,
648
00:42:20,440 --> 00:42:22,560
using tree ring density data.
649
00:42:23,560 --> 00:42:29,479
Keith's data produced similar
results to my own reconstruction,
650
00:42:29,480 --> 00:42:34,239
until 1960,
when it began to diverge.
651
00:42:34,240 --> 00:42:36,559
Diverge? What do you mean?
652
00:42:36,560 --> 00:42:41,479
Well, the real temperatures
increase sharply after 1960.
653
00:42:41,480 --> 00:42:45,839
But the tree rings got narrower,
less dense,
654
00:42:45,840 --> 00:42:50,679
as if the temperature was
decreasing, getting colder.
655
00:42:50,680 --> 00:42:53,679
Why would they do that?
Well, we're not sure. Um...
656
00:42:53,680 --> 00:42:57,839
Acid rain, or the depletion
in the ozone layer, but whatever
657
00:42:57,840 --> 00:43:00,599
the cause, the tree ring data
658
00:43:00,600 --> 00:43:03,759
becomes unreliable after 1960.
659
00:43:03,760 --> 00:43:07,879
But if it's unreliable then, how do
we know it was any good before?
660
00:43:07,880 --> 00:43:12,639
Its match to previous instrument
readings were strong
661
00:43:12,640 --> 00:43:17,799
and universal all through the 19th
and 20th century until 1960.
662
00:43:17,800 --> 00:43:20,720
But on the graph,
there's no divergence? Yes, and...
663
00:43:22,480 --> 00:43:25,559
I knew that the data became
unreliable,
664
00:43:25,560 --> 00:43:31,919
so I included only the real
temperatures in the green line.
665
00:43:31,920 --> 00:43:33,520
To hide the decline.
666
00:43:35,800 --> 00:43:38,880
In tree ring density.
But not the temperature?
667
00:43:41,400 --> 00:43:44,320
Well... There was
no decline in temperature to hide.
668
00:43:45,760 --> 00:43:49,440
Every thermometer in the world
will say the opposite.
669
00:43:51,280 --> 00:43:54,680
The temperatures were rising
all through that period.
670
00:43:58,840 --> 00:44:00,320
And they still are.
671
00:44:09,040 --> 00:44:11,519
Jesus!
672
00:44:11,520 --> 00:44:14,360
They really screwed you over,
didn't they?
673
00:44:52,200 --> 00:44:54,920
Both down? Flat out.
674
00:44:59,560 --> 00:45:03,759
So, how's he doing, your scientist?
675
00:45:03,760 --> 00:45:05,800
Not too great, to be honest.
676
00:45:10,560 --> 00:45:13,039
And who do you think did
this to him?
677
00:45:13,040 --> 00:45:14,600
The hack?
678
00:45:15,880 --> 00:45:17,479
Who knows?
679
00:45:17,480 --> 00:45:22,039
But whoever's behind what's happened
since knows their stuff.
680
00:45:22,040 --> 00:45:26,079
I mean, a few months ago, there was
consensus on global warming.
681
00:45:26,080 --> 00:45:28,240
Now, headlines across the world.
682
00:45:30,360 --> 00:45:33,039
Could have all just happened?
683
00:45:33,040 --> 00:45:36,679
Might not be
anyone behind it at all.
684
00:45:36,680 --> 00:45:42,520
Some big players have had plans
for ages. Oil companies, especially.
685
00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:47,000
They all want to stop the science
getting out there.
686
00:45:49,640 --> 00:45:53,120
What's so crazy is they knew
more about it than anyone else.
687
00:45:54,800 --> 00:45:57,799
All through the '80s, they had
the best climate scientists,
688
00:45:57,800 --> 00:45:58,960
scenario planners...
689
00:46:00,800 --> 00:46:04,839
And these guys, they're
telling them, the CEOs, the boards,
690
00:46:04,840 --> 00:46:06,679
increasing CO2 in the atmosphere,
691
00:46:06,680 --> 00:46:11,399
it's going to be a major
problem for the whole world.
692
00:46:11,400 --> 00:46:16,119
Extreme weather, food shortages,
mass migrations...
693
00:46:16,120 --> 00:46:17,640
So what did they do?
694
00:46:23,160 --> 00:46:25,640
I can't believe I'm saying this,
but...
695
00:46:27,720 --> 00:46:29,559
they took all that,
696
00:46:29,560 --> 00:46:34,559
all that knowledge, which they
had more of, in more detail,
697
00:46:34,560 --> 00:46:36,639
and earlier than anyone else, and...
698
00:46:36,640 --> 00:46:40,119
Well, they used it to get
ahead of the curve, to come
699
00:46:40,120 --> 00:46:44,559
up with strategies to keep
the public uncertain, unconcerned.
700
00:46:44,560 --> 00:46:48,239
What kind of strategies?
Front organisations, mostly.
701
00:46:48,240 --> 00:46:51,079
Produce alternative research that
backed their message
702
00:46:51,080 --> 00:46:52,519
and then pushed it to the media.
703
00:46:52,520 --> 00:46:54,759
Ah, PR then.
704
00:46:54,760 --> 00:46:56,120
Marketing.
705
00:46:57,920 --> 00:46:59,000
Like what you do.
706
00:47:00,400 --> 00:47:02,199
No, Dad.
707
00:47:02,200 --> 00:47:05,560
At least with what I do, you
know who's pitching to you.
708
00:47:07,520 --> 00:47:10,199
When I read the projections
about what could happen
709
00:47:10,200 --> 00:47:11,560
if we don't do anything...
710
00:47:14,120 --> 00:47:16,920
and when I see those dates,
2040 to 2050...
711
00:47:18,560 --> 00:47:21,040
I can't help thinking how old
the girls will be.
712
00:47:22,280 --> 00:47:23,880
What their lives will be like.
713
00:47:25,760 --> 00:47:27,280
How do you know all this?
714
00:47:28,360 --> 00:47:29,520
There's a paper trail.
715
00:47:30,600 --> 00:47:32,119
If you know where to look.
716
00:47:32,120 --> 00:47:36,079
You think it's the oil companies,
then, stole the emails?
717
00:47:36,080 --> 00:47:37,480
Jesus, I don't know, Dad.
718
00:47:39,240 --> 00:47:40,280
It's the internet.
719
00:47:41,360 --> 00:47:43,640
A dark place,
filled with darker places.
720
00:47:45,480 --> 00:47:48,599
I just hope we're doing
the right thing.
721
00:47:48,600 --> 00:47:50,120
Why wouldn't you be?
722
00:47:51,160 --> 00:47:55,760
This isn't a flagship store,
some new trainers.
723
00:47:58,120 --> 00:47:59,640
If we get this wrong, it's...
724
00:48:02,680 --> 00:48:04,000
It's game over for him.
725
00:48:42,600 --> 00:48:45,959
Give Lily a birthday kiss from me.
726
00:48:45,960 --> 00:48:47,640
Of course.
727
00:48:56,120 --> 00:48:57,240
Um...
728
00:48:58,760 --> 00:49:00,519
Um...
729
00:49:00,520 --> 00:49:02,280
I'm... so sorry, Ruth.
730
00:49:11,200 --> 00:49:12,800
You just call me when it's done...
731
00:49:15,480 --> 00:49:17,000
with that journalist.
732
00:49:48,200 --> 00:49:50,640
SHE SOBS
733
00:49:54,120 --> 00:49:56,320
Oh... God!
734
00:50:00,320 --> 00:50:01,360
Philip!
735
00:50:03,040 --> 00:50:07,280
Good morning. Morning. Morning.
How are you? Good. Good. Good.
736
00:50:09,760 --> 00:50:10,800
Are you ready? Yep.
737
00:50:12,240 --> 00:50:15,519
You're going to be all right.
I'll introduce you to Richard.
738
00:50:15,520 --> 00:50:17,080
Neil!
739
00:50:21,600 --> 00:50:23,199
Thank you, love.
740
00:50:23,200 --> 00:50:25,080
They've done this before, you know.
741
00:50:26,320 --> 00:50:28,999
I'm sorry? Gone after people.
Scientists.
742
00:50:29,000 --> 00:50:31,799
Just for doing their job.
He'll be fine. I promise.
743
00:50:31,800 --> 00:50:33,159
I don't want your promises.
744
00:50:33,160 --> 00:50:35,599
I want to be sure you know what
you're doing. Yes, we do.
745
00:50:35,600 --> 00:50:39,119
I've been in this game
a long time. But it isn't!
746
00:50:39,120 --> 00:50:43,239
Don't you see that? Not to us.
I'm sorry, I... A game.
747
00:50:43,240 --> 00:50:45,519
That's not what I meant.
That man in there,
748
00:50:45,520 --> 00:50:47,959
the man you're about to let
the press at... Yeah.
749
00:50:47,960 --> 00:50:51,239
The press who've dragged him through
the mud for months, he's my husband.
750
00:50:51,240 --> 00:50:54,399
A father, a grandfather, someone
who's tried to spend his whole
751
00:50:54,400 --> 00:50:58,439
life getting closer to the truth.
His work is important. I...
752
00:50:58,440 --> 00:51:02,439
HE is important! So I bloody well
hope you do know what you're doing
753
00:51:02,440 --> 00:51:05,559
because this might be just
a job to you, but for us,
754
00:51:05,560 --> 00:51:09,320
we could lose everything! Do you
understand? Everything!
755
00:51:29,120 --> 00:51:31,200
Do you have any regrets?
756
00:51:35,560 --> 00:51:37,999
Well, I regret that
I didn't deal with
757
00:51:38,000 --> 00:51:40,479
the Freedom of Information
request in a better way.
758
00:51:40,480 --> 00:51:43,440
I... I misjudged the situation.
759
00:51:45,800 --> 00:51:47,319
How, exactly?
760
00:51:47,320 --> 00:51:48,800
Well, um...
761
00:51:50,200 --> 00:51:54,599
According to the rules, we're
supposed to do 18 hours of work
762
00:51:54,600 --> 00:51:58,399
on each one before we're allowed
to turn it down and, um,
763
00:51:58,400 --> 00:52:01,159
we received 40 over one weekend,
764
00:52:01,160 --> 00:52:05,039
all requesting the same
data from five different countries.
765
00:52:05,040 --> 00:52:08,359
We were being targeted. You think
they wanted to waste your time?
766
00:52:08,360 --> 00:52:10,679
Well, the data was available
elsewhere.
767
00:52:10,680 --> 00:52:14,519
They were trying to slow us down,
take us away from our work.
768
00:52:14,520 --> 00:52:17,080
And the messages you
sent about deleting the data?
769
00:52:18,680 --> 00:52:24,359
Er, well, er... It wasn't
data. It was emails and, um...
770
00:52:24,360 --> 00:52:26,039
Well, that was...
771
00:52:26,040 --> 00:52:27,840
That was... Um...
772
00:52:29,800 --> 00:52:32,079
Er...
773
00:52:32,080 --> 00:52:34,319
Frustration, um...
774
00:52:34,320 --> 00:52:36,160
They were written in anger.
775
00:52:37,880 --> 00:52:39,360
But you did destroy the data?
776
00:52:40,640 --> 00:52:46,079
Um, no. It wasn't our data to
destroy. It... We interpret it.
777
00:52:46,080 --> 00:52:47,880
We don't create or collect it.
778
00:52:49,120 --> 00:52:52,159
So when the story broke,
this was all just before the
779
00:52:52,160 --> 00:52:56,439
UN Climate Conference in Copenhagen,
right? Yes.
780
00:52:56,440 --> 00:52:57,879
Did that worry you?
781
00:52:57,880 --> 00:53:00,279
That your emails might be
responsible for undermining
782
00:53:00,280 --> 00:53:04,319
the talks two months ago?
Yes. Yes, it did.
783
00:53:04,320 --> 00:53:07,199
An opportunity the world
cannot afford to miss.
784
00:53:07,200 --> 00:53:09,959
The UN Climate Conference gets
under way in Copenhagen.
785
00:53:09,960 --> 00:53:11,279
The mood music is positive
786
00:53:11,280 --> 00:53:14,359
and thousands of people have
converged on Copenhagen,
787
00:53:14,360 --> 00:53:18,719
hoping that some sort of historic
deal might be within reach,
788
00:53:18,720 --> 00:53:21,199
but there are a whole
range of really...
789
00:53:21,200 --> 00:53:24,399
Surely, the CRU emails are going to
undermine the talks, aren't they?
790
00:53:24,400 --> 00:53:27,799
The UN's chief climate scientist
has already said as such.
791
00:53:27,800 --> 00:53:30,719
Look, I'm a member of the UK
negotiating team.
792
00:53:30,720 --> 00:53:33,039
I know how this process works.
793
00:53:33,040 --> 00:53:36,919
These negotiators are grown ups.
They know their science.
794
00:53:36,920 --> 00:53:40,959
Some fabricated scandal is not going
to affect their opinion.
795
00:53:40,960 --> 00:53:44,559
The Saudi negotiator has already
said the emails questions
796
00:53:44,560 --> 00:53:46,639
the validity of this conference.
797
00:53:46,640 --> 00:53:49,679
Well, considering he's had breakfast
with a different oil company
798
00:53:49,680 --> 00:53:53,039
every morning this week,
I suppose he would, wouldn't he?
799
00:53:53,040 --> 00:53:56,119
Look, these talks might fail,
800
00:53:56,120 --> 00:54:00,519
but it's not going to be
because of some stolen emails.
801
00:54:00,520 --> 00:54:02,959
Any thoughts on who might have
stolen the emails?
802
00:54:02,960 --> 00:54:05,919
Well, it seems coordinated, so I...
803
00:54:05,920 --> 00:54:07,879
It could be an intelligence
operation.
804
00:54:07,880 --> 00:54:11,999
The file was loaded on a server in
Tomsk. Do you think this was Russia?
805
00:54:12,000 --> 00:54:13,919
Oh, yes, absolutely.
806
00:54:13,920 --> 00:54:16,599
Well, I have seen
first-hand how active
807
00:54:16,600 --> 00:54:19,959
they can be in stifling
the science of global warming,
808
00:54:19,960 --> 00:54:24,639
but equally, it could also be
the American oil lobby system.
809
00:54:24,640 --> 00:54:28,999
After all, they are the main source of
finance behind these sort of things.
810
00:54:29,000 --> 00:54:33,759
So you really think whoever did this
wasn't trying to derail the talks?
811
00:54:33,760 --> 00:54:36,799
Was it a coincidence that
these emails were released
812
00:54:36,800 --> 00:54:39,720
just before this COP?
Absolutely not!
813
00:54:41,480 --> 00:54:44,839
But it's public opinion they're
trying to influence,
814
00:54:44,840 --> 00:54:46,719
not these negotiations.
815
00:54:46,720 --> 00:54:50,719
That's what will affect policy,
so no,
816
00:54:50,720 --> 00:54:53,599
this conference is not their target,
817
00:54:53,600 --> 00:54:56,159
but it is their stage.
818
00:54:56,160 --> 00:55:01,239
The, um, hockey stick is
shattered beyond repair.
819
00:55:01,240 --> 00:55:04,999
And we're talking about it today
because of Climategate.
820
00:55:05,000 --> 00:55:09,359
It's a huge deal.
Don't take my word for it.
821
00:55:09,360 --> 00:55:13,119
Just do an internet search
and here's what you find.
822
00:55:13,120 --> 00:55:16,239
George Monbiot in the Guardian,
823
00:55:16,240 --> 00:55:21,599
"Pretending this is not a real
crisis isn't going to make it
824
00:55:21,600 --> 00:55:25,839
"go away.
Phil Jones has got to go."
825
00:55:25,840 --> 00:55:30,319
Christopher Brooker,
the UK Telegraph, "This is the worst
826
00:55:30,320 --> 00:55:33,920
"scientific scandal
of our generation."
827
00:55:35,680 --> 00:55:40,879
The scientists involved in the CRU
controversy violated
828
00:55:40,880 --> 00:55:45,479
fundamental ethical principles,
governing taxpayer funded research.
829
00:55:45,480 --> 00:55:49,559
And in some cases, may have
violated federal laws.
830
00:55:49,560 --> 00:55:52,199
Now, for this reason,
831
00:55:52,200 --> 00:55:56,439
I am calling for the following key
players to be investigated
832
00:55:56,440 --> 00:56:01,479
with possible referral to the US
Justice Department for prosecution -
833
00:56:01,480 --> 00:56:04,080
Phil Jones, Keith Briffa.
834
00:56:06,120 --> 00:56:09,040
CRASHING WAVE
835
00:56:37,080 --> 00:56:38,480
And, um...
836
00:56:40,120 --> 00:56:42,240
some of these messages you
received...
837
00:56:43,880 --> 00:56:46,480
were they death threats? Yes.
838
00:56:50,000 --> 00:56:51,720
And if you don't mind me asking...
839
00:56:53,120 --> 00:56:54,840
what would they say, exactly?
840
00:56:58,120 --> 00:57:00,799
Well, that they knew where I lived.
841
00:57:00,800 --> 00:57:02,280
That...
842
00:57:04,400 --> 00:57:06,560
I should kill myself.
843
00:57:08,760 --> 00:57:10,160
And if I didn't...
844
00:57:12,920 --> 00:57:14,440
they'd do it for me.
845
00:57:16,600 --> 00:57:18,360
And did, um...
846
00:57:22,120 --> 00:57:23,640
Did you ever think about that?
847
00:57:25,360 --> 00:57:26,680
About suicide?
848
00:57:32,800 --> 00:57:34,040
Yes.
849
00:57:35,760 --> 00:57:37,920
Several times.
850
00:57:40,720 --> 00:57:44,520
And what, um...
I know this is difficult.
851
00:57:46,720 --> 00:57:48,320
But what stopped you?
852
00:58:00,840 --> 00:58:01,880
Lily.
853
00:58:03,560 --> 00:58:05,360
Lily.
854
00:58:25,320 --> 00:58:27,880
CHILD'S LAUGHTER
855
00:58:43,160 --> 00:58:46,719
Think, Mrs Jones, somewhere
he goes regularly to, you know, mull
856
00:58:46,720 --> 00:58:50,000
over stuff, of to get away from
things? No. No, not without...
857
00:58:51,520 --> 00:58:54,920
Not... Philip? CAR PULLING UP
858
00:59:06,480 --> 00:59:08,760
You... You... SOBBING
859
00:59:16,480 --> 00:59:17,800
All right, all right.
860
00:59:20,280 --> 00:59:22,639
All right, I've got you.
861
00:59:22,640 --> 00:59:24,680
I've got you.
862
00:59:28,520 --> 00:59:30,559
How did it go?
What did you tell them?
863
00:59:30,560 --> 00:59:33,680
Oh, just everything that we
talked about. Good. And...
864
00:59:38,960 --> 00:59:40,799
And what, Philip?
865
00:59:40,800 --> 00:59:43,679
Well, and, um...
866
00:59:43,680 --> 00:59:46,840
About when I, um...
867
00:59:47,880 --> 00:59:52,639
Went... When I didn't, you know,
um... When's it going out?
868
00:59:52,640 --> 00:59:56,479
Tomorrow. Well, I mean, I can...
Nana! I'm sure they won't use it.
869
00:59:56,480 --> 01:00:00,239
Do you want me to call Neil?
I can... I can...
870
01:00:00,240 --> 01:00:04,239
Tell him that... I'm going
to have to warn Matthew. Why?
871
01:00:04,240 --> 01:00:06,039
Ruth... Why?
872
01:00:06,040 --> 01:00:08,759
Because now they'll know you've
got a granddaughter.
873
01:00:08,760 --> 01:00:12,240
Those people.
They'll know about Lily.
874
01:00:13,440 --> 01:00:17,039
You... You call Neil
and we'll speak later. Well...
875
01:00:17,040 --> 01:00:18,200
But...
876
01:00:32,920 --> 01:00:36,199
You didn't ask them to remove the
suicide stuff? It's the best bit.
877
01:00:36,200 --> 01:00:38,599
Takes the heat off Phil
for a week or two.
878
01:00:38,600 --> 01:00:41,039
Puts a face to it. A life.
879
01:00:41,040 --> 01:00:44,359
Reminds people he's a person,
a grandfather.
880
01:00:44,360 --> 01:00:46,360
That's what
we need before the hearing.
881
01:01:15,440 --> 01:01:17,639
What about the hack? Who did this?
How did they do it?
882
01:01:17,640 --> 01:01:20,599
Why did they do it? I mean, where
are the interviews with the security
883
01:01:20,600 --> 01:01:22,319
correspondents, cyber experts?
884
01:01:22,320 --> 01:01:24,679
Not the story. Since
when is the crime not the story?
885
01:01:24,680 --> 01:01:27,759
When what it achieved is more
interesting.
886
01:01:27,760 --> 01:01:30,559
Have you seen these poll
figures from the US,
887
01:01:30,560 --> 01:01:33,120
conducted in the months after
the leak went viral?
888
01:01:34,640 --> 01:01:38,759
"59% of Americans say scientists
have falsified research data to
889
01:01:38,760 --> 01:01:41,119
"support their beliefs
about global warming.
890
01:01:41,120 --> 01:01:44,399
"Only 26% take the opposite view."
891
01:01:44,400 --> 01:01:47,280
It's worked, hasn't it? Yeah.
892
01:01:49,800 --> 01:01:53,439
What we need is a proper deflection,
someone to point the finger at.
893
01:01:53,440 --> 01:01:57,280
A likely suspect for who did
the hack, or who was behind it.
894
01:01:59,640 --> 01:02:02,959
The hacker gave the emails file
names, linked to the date
895
01:02:02,960 --> 01:02:04,919
and time that the email was sent.
896
01:02:04,920 --> 01:02:08,239
They must have written a program
to extract the date and time from
897
01:02:08,240 --> 01:02:12,879
the text and a tool to convert that
to the number of seconds elapsed.
898
01:02:12,880 --> 01:02:14,999
If the times when the email was sent
899
01:02:15,000 --> 01:02:18,119
and the time zone on the computer
the hacker was using to process
900
01:02:18,120 --> 01:02:21,959
the emails differed, then the file
name generator will be incorrect.
901
01:02:21,960 --> 01:02:26,679
For example, an email
sent from Greenwich Mean Time would
902
01:02:26,680 --> 01:02:28,839
give us an error of five hours.
903
01:02:28,840 --> 01:02:32,639
Now, this five hour
mismatch could be later,
904
01:02:32,640 --> 01:02:37,239
placing the location in this
time zone, Russia and Pakistan,
905
01:02:37,240 --> 01:02:41,400
or earlier, in this location,
on the East Coast of America.
906
01:02:42,720 --> 01:02:47,159
Now, emails from this time zone
give us an error or zero hours.
907
01:02:47,160 --> 01:02:50,439
Indicating that's where the
emails were processed?
908
01:02:50,440 --> 01:02:52,039
East Coast of the US?
909
01:02:52,040 --> 01:02:55,039
Yes. Well, that's going to
go down well, isn't it?
910
01:02:55,040 --> 01:02:58,839
Now, it is possible that the hacker
reset his computer to avoid
911
01:02:58,840 --> 01:03:02,399
detection. What's GCHQ's input?
912
01:03:02,400 --> 01:03:04,959
They confirm
the Department of Energy
913
01:03:04,960 --> 01:03:07,479
and Climate Change has been
an intelligence collection
914
01:03:07,480 --> 01:03:11,039
target for China and Russia,
but in terms of active state action
915
01:03:11,040 --> 01:03:13,359
and these kind of tactics,
in this area...
916
01:03:13,360 --> 01:03:16,479
Why do the dirty work yourself, if
you can pull the strings remotely?
917
01:03:16,480 --> 01:03:18,079
Smart.
918
01:03:18,080 --> 01:03:21,519
And if we follow the money,
where does that take us?
919
01:03:21,520 --> 01:03:24,359
Well, Russia does have a huge
oil industry.
920
01:03:24,360 --> 01:03:26,919
And with the melting
of the ice caps, it is
921
01:03:26,920 --> 01:03:29,719
looking to exploit the Arctic,
but...
922
01:03:29,720 --> 01:03:32,759
Yes, if you really want to follow
the money, it takes us
923
01:03:32,760 --> 01:03:35,359
back here, to the US.
924
01:03:35,360 --> 01:03:38,359
Oil lobbies. Exxon, Koch Brothers.
925
01:03:38,360 --> 01:03:40,439
They're the ones with real
skin in the game.
926
01:03:40,440 --> 01:03:43,039
Someone out there knows
who did this.
927
01:03:43,040 --> 01:03:45,879
Who the gun for hire hacker
was and who was paying them.
928
01:03:45,880 --> 01:03:47,999
How the
hell are we meant to find them,
929
01:03:48,000 --> 01:03:50,120
if the internet makes
a joke of the search?
930
01:04:03,800 --> 01:04:05,600
OK, let's try again.
931
01:04:07,360 --> 01:04:09,359
Like this...
932
01:04:09,360 --> 01:04:10,880
The facts are this.
933
01:04:13,000 --> 01:04:15,040
The facts are this.
934
01:04:18,440 --> 01:04:22,959
This is a House of Commons select
committee. They'll be out for meat.
935
01:04:22,960 --> 01:04:24,720
You've got to get them on side.
936
01:04:27,520 --> 01:04:29,480
You do know what's at stake here?
937
01:04:34,680 --> 01:04:36,479
Oh...
938
01:04:36,480 --> 01:04:40,719
What I don't get is,
this is all you've ever done.
939
01:04:40,720 --> 01:04:45,079
For the last 30 years, you've stuck
it out, you've been loyal, whatever.
940
01:04:45,080 --> 01:04:47,719
This has been your life!
941
01:04:47,720 --> 01:04:50,919
I mean, don't you care?!
942
01:04:50,920 --> 01:04:52,240
Yes.
943
01:04:53,400 --> 01:04:57,000
What? Yes! I do care!
944
01:04:58,920 --> 01:05:00,640
Maybe...
945
01:05:03,240 --> 01:05:04,839
Phil.
946
01:05:04,840 --> 01:05:06,160
Phil?
947
01:05:36,040 --> 01:05:37,680
What do you want me not to say?
948
01:05:43,480 --> 01:05:45,440
I don't want you not to say
anything.
949
01:05:46,920 --> 01:05:50,159
I just want you to tell the truth.
950
01:05:50,160 --> 01:05:53,479
But in a way that it can be
understood. Short answers.
951
01:05:53,480 --> 01:05:54,880
No jargon.
952
01:06:03,960 --> 01:06:05,599
Why does this all matter?
953
01:06:05,600 --> 01:06:07,039
What?
954
01:06:07,040 --> 01:06:08,719
Well...
955
01:06:08,720 --> 01:06:12,240
Because what's... What they...
956
01:06:15,440 --> 01:06:17,359
Because it isn't true.
957
01:06:17,360 --> 01:06:19,360
Right. But beyond that?
958
01:06:20,840 --> 01:06:22,559
What happens if they win?
959
01:06:22,560 --> 01:06:26,280
What happens if everyone ignores
your measurements, your graphs?
960
01:06:28,480 --> 01:06:31,039
Well...
961
01:06:31,040 --> 01:06:34,679
I suppose we'll just carry on
emitting more greenhouse gases.
962
01:06:34,680 --> 01:06:37,719
Global temperatures will
continue to increase.
963
01:06:37,720 --> 01:06:40,119
And if we do that,
what actually happens?
964
01:06:40,120 --> 01:06:44,479
Well, the projection hasn't changed.
It's still the same.
965
01:06:44,480 --> 01:06:45,999
The same as what?
966
01:06:46,000 --> 01:06:49,440
As when US scientists first
studied it in the '70s.
967
01:06:50,440 --> 01:06:51,800
Go on.
968
01:06:53,840 --> 01:06:57,439
Well, a doubling of CO2 emissions
in the atmosphere will
969
01:06:57,440 --> 01:07:01,879
result in a 1.5 to 4.5 degree
increase.
970
01:07:01,880 --> 01:07:05,080
In what?
Average surface temperature.
971
01:07:06,880 --> 01:07:12,439
Polar amplification will mean that
melting in the poles will be greater.
972
01:07:12,440 --> 01:07:16,239
Maybe as much as ten degrees.
973
01:07:16,240 --> 01:07:18,639
What happens, Phil,
974
01:07:18,640 --> 01:07:20,519
for our children
975
01:07:20,520 --> 01:07:24,720
and their children?
No numbers, just the consequences.
976
01:07:33,560 --> 01:07:34,600
Well...
977
01:07:36,120 --> 01:07:38,279
By 2100,
978
01:07:38,280 --> 01:07:43,199
dust bowl conditions
across North America and Africa,
979
01:07:43,200 --> 01:07:45,000
Asia too.
980
01:07:46,920 --> 01:07:51,479
Sooner than that,
a massive reduction in agricultural
981
01:07:51,480 --> 01:07:54,959
production,
access to drinking water,
982
01:07:54,960 --> 01:07:57,360
migration in huge numbers.
983
01:07:59,440 --> 01:08:00,520
Um...
984
01:08:01,720 --> 01:08:07,080
Bushfires on a massive scale
in Australia, the West Coast.
985
01:08:08,960 --> 01:08:14,839
Annual melting at the poles,
the West Antarctic ice sheet,
986
01:08:14,840 --> 01:08:17,599
well, because of that,
987
01:08:17,600 --> 01:08:22,040
the global sea level rise of,
well...
988
01:08:23,840 --> 01:08:25,079
metres.
989
01:08:25,080 --> 01:08:29,839
But what does that all mean for us?
People.
990
01:08:29,840 --> 01:08:31,559
Make me see it, Phil.
991
01:08:31,560 --> 01:08:33,280
Well...
992
01:08:34,440 --> 01:08:36,040
In this worst case scenario...
993
01:08:37,560 --> 01:08:42,519
70% of the habitable world will
no longer be able to sustain
994
01:08:42,520 --> 01:08:44,000
human life.
995
01:08:46,240 --> 01:08:49,040
Millions of species will become
extinct.
996
01:08:51,840 --> 01:08:54,320
And coastal
and delta cities will be underwater.
997
01:08:56,040 --> 01:08:57,200
And, well...
998
01:08:59,080 --> 01:09:04,039
if the methane in the permafrost
and on the seabed is released,
999
01:09:04,040 --> 01:09:05,240
well...
1000
01:09:06,320 --> 01:09:07,360
Yes?
1001
01:09:10,440 --> 01:09:12,320
The climate will collapse.
1002
01:09:15,240 --> 01:09:16,920
And the world as we know it...
1003
01:09:19,160 --> 01:09:20,600
will be gone.
1004
01:09:34,120 --> 01:09:37,159
Now, we know there are some people
out there who think
1005
01:09:37,160 --> 01:09:40,279
everything you've just said
is bollocks.
1006
01:09:40,280 --> 01:09:42,960
Maybe even some of the hearing
committee, who knows?
1007
01:09:44,760 --> 01:09:47,159
But if you can remember
everything you just said
1008
01:09:47,160 --> 01:09:50,560
when you're answering them, no
matter how dry those answers are...
1009
01:09:52,240 --> 01:09:54,520
then we don't have
to worry about it.
1010
01:10:02,760 --> 01:10:03,880
Let's take a break.
1011
01:10:09,520 --> 01:10:10,999
Anything?
1012
01:10:11,000 --> 01:10:15,039
It's the same names cropping up
again and again.
1013
01:10:15,040 --> 01:10:18,319
With tobacco in the '70s,
acid rain in the '80s,
1014
01:10:18,320 --> 01:10:20,079
and now with global warming.
1015
01:10:20,080 --> 01:10:23,160
It's not just the same strategy,
it's the same bloody people.
1016
01:10:24,440 --> 01:10:27,920
But all this now with Phil,
the emails, it's just...
1017
01:10:29,080 --> 01:10:31,960
The latest battle in the longer war.
1018
01:10:35,320 --> 01:10:36,880
It always is, son.
1019
01:10:38,640 --> 01:10:40,120
You'll come to see that.
1020
01:10:42,640 --> 01:10:44,160
It always is.
1021
01:10:51,640 --> 01:10:53,280
They're going to tear him apart.
1022
01:10:55,400 --> 01:10:57,160
We've still got a couple more days.
1023
01:10:59,520 --> 01:11:02,359
We'll have to rehearse
the hell out of him.
1024
01:11:02,360 --> 01:11:04,999
Choreograph it step by step.
1025
01:11:05,000 --> 01:11:08,240
Royal Ballet will have nothing on us
by the time we're done.
1026
01:11:20,520 --> 01:11:24,879
So why not release the data?
Shouldn't everyone get to see it?
1027
01:11:24,880 --> 01:11:28,199
Don't focus on how you feel,
focus on how you come across.
1028
01:11:28,200 --> 01:11:32,199
How is someone sitting
there on the other side seeing you?
1029
01:11:32,200 --> 01:11:36,559
The select committee hearing is
your only chance to defend yourself.
1030
01:11:36,560 --> 01:11:38,519
So, how is that right,
1031
01:11:38,520 --> 01:11:41,519
to stop other scientists
publishing their findings?
1032
01:11:41,520 --> 01:11:44,680
Weren't you just using your position
to quash other opinions?
1033
01:11:46,120 --> 01:11:51,039
Yes or no, did you ask
your colleagues to delete emails?
1034
01:11:51,040 --> 01:11:53,199
There was no manipulation, yup...
1035
01:11:53,200 --> 01:11:56,639
So you've been manipulating
the historic records, is that right?
1036
01:11:56,640 --> 01:12:02,679
So, there was no manipulation,
just adjustment in the pursuit
1037
01:12:02,680 --> 01:12:06,679
of accuracy
because that's how science works.
1038
01:12:06,680 --> 01:12:09,400
That's... how we get to the truth.
1039
01:12:11,720 --> 01:12:14,839
SLOW CLAPPING
1040
01:12:14,840 --> 01:12:17,520
APPLAUSE
1041
01:12:18,720 --> 01:12:21,320
Well done, Phil. Well done!
1042
01:12:32,120 --> 01:12:33,600
How are you feeling?
1043
01:12:45,480 --> 01:12:46,840
Just show them who you are.
1044
01:12:48,040 --> 01:12:49,720
What else can I do? No, I...
1045
01:12:54,360 --> 01:12:56,400
Do you remember when we first met?
1046
01:12:58,120 --> 01:13:01,039
In the halls of residence?
1047
01:13:01,040 --> 01:13:04,559
I was playing darts and your room
was on the other side of the wall.
1048
01:13:04,560 --> 01:13:07,719
You came out to ask us to be quiet.
It was... It was distracting.
1049
01:13:07,720 --> 01:13:09,200
I know!
1050
01:13:14,120 --> 01:13:18,159
The way you asked us,
the way you carried yourself.
1051
01:13:18,160 --> 01:13:21,120
I could tell straight away,
here was a good man.
1052
01:13:24,920 --> 01:13:26,240
A kind man.
1053
01:13:28,400 --> 01:13:29,800
A man of integrity.
1054
01:13:33,480 --> 01:13:36,760
All the pieces of that
man are still here, Philip...
1055
01:13:40,720 --> 01:13:42,320
which means so is he.
1056
01:13:46,040 --> 01:13:48,080
That's who I want you to show them.
1057
01:14:23,640 --> 01:14:27,120
You'll be fine, Phil.
Watch your shoe.
1058
01:14:30,360 --> 01:14:36,479
Here we are. OK, so, good luck
gentlemen. You're not coming in?
1059
01:14:36,480 --> 01:14:39,839
Not going to help your cause
if the press see me in there.
1060
01:14:39,840 --> 01:14:41,840
Keep to the brief. Good luck.
1061
01:14:44,320 --> 01:14:47,759
This is the only day of verbal
evidence for the select committee
1062
01:14:47,760 --> 01:14:50,279
and they're keen to
hear from their star witness,
1063
01:14:50,280 --> 01:14:53,919
the former head of the climate
research unit at the University
1064
01:14:53,920 --> 01:14:58,079
of East Anglia, and the subject
of many of those emails, Phil Jones.
1065
01:14:58,080 --> 01:15:01,679
This is the first time he's come
under close public scrutiny.
1066
01:15:01,680 --> 01:15:06,759
So, shall we begin,
Professor Jones, Professor Acton?
1067
01:15:06,760 --> 01:15:11,599
Thank you. I do have a general
statement I'd like to make. No.
1068
01:15:11,600 --> 01:15:13,599
No general statements, please.
1069
01:15:13,600 --> 01:15:16,760
Oh, Jesus! Just answer the questions
when you're asked them.
1070
01:15:18,080 --> 01:15:23,599
Perhaps I could just go back to one
of Lord Lawson's earlier comments.
1071
01:15:23,600 --> 01:15:24,999
What did I miss?
1072
01:15:25,000 --> 01:15:29,319
That without an understanding
of the methodology, that the
1073
01:15:29,320 --> 01:15:33,880
peer review system is rather
defunct?
1074
01:15:35,800 --> 01:15:37,759
Well, the, um...
1075
01:15:37,760 --> 01:15:41,239
The methods are published in the
1076
01:15:41,240 --> 01:15:44,439
scientific papers, um, that...
1077
01:15:44,440 --> 01:15:47,599
That... That... Relatively simple.
1078
01:15:47,600 --> 01:15:51,439
There's nothing sort of rocket
science about them. They're...
1079
01:15:51,440 --> 01:15:56,199
Can you explain your email exchange
on the 21st of January 2005,
1080
01:15:56,200 --> 01:15:59,559
when you say you aren't going to...
How are they doing?
1081
01:15:59,560 --> 01:16:03,359
Not bad.
..Find something wrong with it?
1082
01:16:03,360 --> 01:16:07,639
That's the nature of scientific
pursuits, isn't it?
1083
01:16:07,640 --> 01:16:11,760
Well, I've obviously written
some very awful emails. CHUCKLING
1084
01:16:18,160 --> 01:16:20,200
Let's get you home.
1085
01:18:00,440 --> 01:18:02,080
You found him.
1086
01:18:30,400 --> 01:18:32,719
To look at the key works of CRU,
1087
01:18:32,720 --> 01:18:36,879
to reaffirm the sure-fire
quality of the science
1088
01:18:36,880 --> 01:18:40,599
and my I end by saying
just how proud
1089
01:18:40,600 --> 01:18:45,759
I am of the contribution that UEA
and CRU in particular has
1090
01:18:45,760 --> 01:18:52,000
made to humanity's ability
to understand climate change.
1091
01:18:55,320 --> 01:18:56,480
So, what happens now?
1092
01:18:58,280 --> 01:18:59,640
We wait.
1093
01:19:12,840 --> 01:19:14,480
We wait.
1094
01:19:40,560 --> 01:19:44,799
Ah, Trevor. Do you know what time the
select committee will publish their report?
1095
01:19:44,800 --> 01:19:48,600
Some time in the morning,
so they said. Right.
1096
01:19:51,280 --> 01:19:54,360
Are you familiar with
the Fermi paradox...
1097
01:19:55,600 --> 01:19:59,359
the contradiction of lack
of evidence for alien life,
1098
01:19:59,360 --> 01:20:04,479
and considering the size
and age of the universe,
1099
01:20:04,480 --> 01:20:07,799
the high possibility
of its existence? Yes, yes.
1100
01:20:07,800 --> 01:20:09,680
The great science. Yeah.
1101
01:20:12,480 --> 01:20:17,159
I read a paper yesterday that
suggested climate change
1102
01:20:17,160 --> 01:20:18,920
might be the answer.
1103
01:20:20,840 --> 01:20:25,160
There have perhaps been other
civilisations, thousands...
1104
01:20:26,480 --> 01:20:29,159
but they all did what
we're doing now,
1105
01:20:29,160 --> 01:20:33,479
became more and more advanced
and in doing so... Yes, I see.
1106
01:20:33,480 --> 01:20:35,960
Burnt themselves out.
Bright and brief.
1107
01:20:39,320 --> 01:20:42,319
It does make you wonder, doesn't it,
1108
01:20:42,320 --> 01:20:47,680
if all this we're
fighting against is, well...
1109
01:20:50,000 --> 01:20:52,439
possibly what we're meant to do?
1110
01:20:52,440 --> 01:20:54,879
I'll admit humanity does
have something of a gift
1111
01:20:54,880 --> 01:20:58,039
for normalising great change,
1112
01:20:58,040 --> 01:21:00,519
even when it threatens us.
1113
01:21:00,520 --> 01:21:03,879
But we do also have a
gift for survival
1114
01:21:03,880 --> 01:21:08,000
against predators, disease,
dictators.
1115
01:21:09,520 --> 01:21:11,680
We do somehow survive.
1116
01:21:15,000 --> 01:21:18,759
Even if how we live is
the danger?
1117
01:21:18,760 --> 01:21:21,160
You have to hope so, don't you?
1118
01:21:25,320 --> 01:21:26,800
Goodnight, Trevor.
1119
01:21:57,600 --> 01:22:01,120
"The focus on Professor Phil
Jones and CRU has been...
1120
01:22:03,560 --> 01:22:04,880
"Has been misplaced.
1121
01:22:07,720 --> 01:22:10,799
"Within the inquiry,
and the evidence we took,
1122
01:22:10,800 --> 01:22:13,639
"the scientific
reputation of Professor Jones
1123
01:22:13,640 --> 01:22:15,919
"and CRU remains intact.
1124
01:22:15,920 --> 01:22:19,640
"We have found no reason in
this unfortunate episode...
1125
01:22:21,560 --> 01:22:24,719
"to challenge the scientific
consensus that global warming
1126
01:22:24,720 --> 01:22:27,639
"is happening
and is induced by human activity.
1127
01:22:27,640 --> 01:22:31,319
"In so far as we've been able to
consider accusations of dishonesty,
1128
01:22:31,320 --> 01:22:34,359
"for example, Professor Jones'
alleged attempt to hide
1129
01:22:34,360 --> 01:22:36,360
"the decline, we consider
there is...
1130
01:22:41,200 --> 01:22:42,680
"There is no case to answer."
1131
01:23:06,280 --> 01:23:11,639
The work done by CRU and have
no doubt that for all of us,
1132
01:23:11,640 --> 01:23:17,519
our children and our grandchildren,
Phil Jones was
1133
01:23:17,520 --> 01:23:22,279
and is the right man
in the right place
1134
01:23:22,280 --> 01:23:23,760
at the right time.
1135
01:23:25,240 --> 01:23:27,199
Phil Jones.
1136
01:23:27,200 --> 01:23:29,000
Phil Jones. Phil Jones.
1137
01:23:32,080 --> 01:23:35,959
All the other reports reached
the same conclusion.
1138
01:23:35,960 --> 01:23:39,280
There were seven,
in total, by the end.
1139
01:23:42,040 --> 01:23:44,839
Even one that no-one knew about,
the...
1140
01:23:44,840 --> 01:23:47,640
The United States Environmental
Protection Agency?
1141
01:23:49,920 --> 01:23:51,720
"A manufactured controversy".
1142
01:23:53,280 --> 01:23:54,960
That's what they called it.
1143
01:23:59,760 --> 01:24:03,599
For us though, it didn't feel like
we could even begin to move on
1144
01:24:03,600 --> 01:24:08,999
until two years later when this big
project in California happened.
1145
01:24:09,000 --> 01:24:14,080
Berkeley Earth, it was called, set
up to prove Philip's work was wrong.
1146
01:24:15,600 --> 01:24:16,640
Anyway...
1147
01:24:17,760 --> 01:24:21,799
they took all the
data CRU had used
1148
01:24:21,800 --> 01:24:24,360
and started from scratch.
1149
01:24:26,840 --> 01:24:31,719
With some known sceptics on the team
too, even Steve Mosher,
1150
01:24:31,720 --> 01:24:34,440
the man who first picked out
those extracts.
1151
01:24:36,000 --> 01:24:38,519
The Trick, Hide the Decline.
1152
01:24:38,520 --> 01:24:40,240
Even him.
1153
01:24:41,840 --> 01:24:43,880
And what do you know?
1154
01:24:46,360 --> 01:24:48,360
Came up with the same
results as Philip.
1155
01:24:51,720 --> 01:24:53,120
The same results.
1156
01:25:55,800 --> 01:25:57,719
Phil.
1157
01:25:57,720 --> 01:25:59,839
It's... Sam.
1158
01:25:59,840 --> 01:26:01,520
I remember.
1159
01:26:04,720 --> 01:26:06,040
How are you?
1160
01:26:07,840 --> 01:26:09,319
I'm very good.
1161
01:26:09,320 --> 01:26:11,679
Yes, good, good. Yeah.
1162
01:26:11,680 --> 01:26:13,560
Oh, this is me.
1163
01:26:15,960 --> 01:26:18,519
Good to see you. And you, Sam.
1164
01:26:18,520 --> 01:26:19,839
Yeah.
1165
01:26:19,840 --> 01:26:21,359
Yeah, take care.
1166
01:26:21,360 --> 01:26:22,840
Yeah, and you.
1167
01:26:58,400 --> 01:27:02,079
Everything that happened back then,
the hacking,
1168
01:27:02,080 --> 01:27:03,919
other campaigns,
1169
01:27:03,920 --> 01:27:07,759
it had a significant
effect on public opinion.
1170
01:27:07,760 --> 01:27:11,839
Cost us between eight to ten years,
according to some studies.
1171
01:27:11,840 --> 01:27:16,919
A decade, so, yes, we could have
had 20 years to sort this out,
1172
01:27:16,920 --> 01:27:20,159
but now, we've only got around ten.
1173
01:27:20,160 --> 01:27:21,520
If that.
1174
01:27:23,320 --> 01:27:26,359
And who's pushing
hardest for action?
1175
01:27:26,360 --> 01:27:31,840
The children, people Lily's age,
which does give me some hope.
1176
01:27:34,280 --> 01:27:38,799
They understand, you see,
what needs to be done.
1177
01:27:38,800 --> 01:27:40,399
And who knows?
1178
01:27:40,400 --> 01:27:43,479
If it only took one generation
to break the planet,
1179
01:27:43,480 --> 01:27:45,920
why can't it take just
one to fix it?
1180
01:27:48,760 --> 01:27:53,520
I know we should have more time,
but at least we do still have time.
1181
01:27:56,120 --> 01:27:57,560
Just.
94476
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