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MUSIC
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The bursting of the nation's
housing bubble adds up to a...
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00:01:18,458 --> 00:01:20,167
It's a shake up on Wall Street.
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00:01:20,209 --> 00:01:21,960
...bankruptcy protection.
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00:01:22,375 --> 00:01:24,167
...the government takeover
of mortgage giants
8
00:01:24,251 --> 00:01:26,127
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
9
00:01:26,335 --> 00:01:30,127
Alan Greenspan calls it a once
in a century financial crisis.
10
00:01:36,126 --> 00:01:38,585
Approve a 700 billion
dollar bailout
11
00:01:38,595 --> 00:01:40,075
or face dire consequences.
12
00:01:40,155 --> 00:01:41,595
I have talked to the
heads of almost
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00:01:41,675 --> 00:01:44,275
every single one of these
firms in the last 72 hours
14
00:01:44,355 --> 00:01:47,275
and he has no idea what
it's like out there. None.
15
00:01:47,475 --> 00:01:51,755
Yes I found a flaw. I don't
know how significant
16
00:01:51,875 --> 00:01:55,555
or permanent it is but I've been
very distressed by that fact.
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00:01:56,035 --> 00:02:00,075
MUSIC
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00:02:24,195 --> 00:02:25,795
SIRENS
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00:02:30,195 --> 00:02:34,475
MUSIC
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00:02:52,435 --> 00:02:53,875
Welcome to New York City!
21
00:02:54,395 --> 00:02:56,035
Financial capital of the world.
22
00:02:56,275 --> 00:02:57,635
Welcome to Wall Street.
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00:02:57,715 --> 00:03:00,835
This is the heart of
American capitalism.
24
00:03:02,115 --> 00:03:04,235
Before I begin, a few
things about the tour:
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00:03:04,555 --> 00:03:05,795
One is uh -
26
00:03:06,315 --> 00:03:08,035
I'm not used to the
camera in front of me...
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00:03:08,075 --> 00:03:11,395
One is uh - let's make
this tour interactive.
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00:03:11,475 --> 00:03:13,395
Feel free to ask me questions.
29
00:03:13,875 --> 00:03:15,875
One of the things
I love the most
30
00:03:15,955 --> 00:03:18,195
is you guys getting
the "aha" moment.
31
00:03:18,235 --> 00:03:20,195
If you can walk away today
32
00:03:20,235 --> 00:03:22,315
with a better understanding
of Wall Street,
33
00:03:22,355 --> 00:03:24,755
better understanding of
the financial crisis,
34
00:03:25,195 --> 00:03:26,875
I've done my job.
35
00:03:32,475 --> 00:03:34,915
Committee will please
come to order.
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00:03:35,915 --> 00:03:38,635
I will start with
the questioning.
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00:03:40,395 --> 00:03:42,835
Dr. Greenspan I want
to start with you.
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00:03:43,075 --> 00:03:45,435
And my question for
you is simple.
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00:03:45,955 --> 00:03:47,075
Were you wrong?
40
00:03:49,475 --> 00:03:51,595
It would be sure that
the mic is turned on.
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00:03:52,435 --> 00:03:57,235
Partially, but let's
separate this problem into
42
00:03:57,315 --> 00:03:58,755
its component parts.
43
00:04:00,835 --> 00:04:02,835
We're talking about
explaining History,
44
00:04:02,915 --> 00:04:05,115
major world historic events.
45
00:04:08,155 --> 00:04:10,635
This is as much a wealth
crisis as a debt crisis.
46
00:04:10,715 --> 00:04:13,235
Is a problem of wages
as much as investment.
47
00:04:16,315 --> 00:04:20,635
It's a debt crisis but it's
also very much a crisis of
48
00:04:20,715 --> 00:04:21,915
economic theory.
49
00:04:24,875 --> 00:04:28,955
I think the income distribution
was the initial step
50
00:04:29,035 --> 00:04:31,995
in the dynamic that
drove the debt crisis.
51
00:04:35,195 --> 00:04:36,395
It's horrifying.
52
00:04:36,875 --> 00:04:40,115
This is, you know, all the
people that we trusted
53
00:04:40,195 --> 00:04:42,675
have turned out to be
completely untrustworthy.
54
00:04:46,035 --> 00:04:51,035
This crisis is a total
failure of markets.
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00:04:53,795 --> 00:04:55,035
So it's not simple.
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00:04:55,755 --> 00:04:59,075
MUSIC
57
00:05:06,955 --> 00:05:11,315
In a short span of time between
March 2008 to September 2008
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00:05:11,595 --> 00:05:13,115
so many things happened.
59
00:05:13,515 --> 00:05:15,715
Fear was in the market place.
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00:05:16,475 --> 00:05:20,075
And if someone was going
to tell you in six months
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00:05:20,435 --> 00:05:22,355
two of the top investment
banking would fail
62
00:05:22,875 --> 00:05:25,395
and they would tell you the top
US insurance company would fail.
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00:05:25,515 --> 00:05:27,595
And they'd tell you
Fannie and Freddie,
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00:05:27,755 --> 00:05:30,235
top mortgage issuers: bankrupt.
65
00:05:30,715 --> 00:05:32,595
Oh Iceland: bankrupt.
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00:05:32,675 --> 00:05:34,515
Bankers around the world.
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00:05:34,635 --> 00:05:36,395
If someone would tell
you this would happen
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00:05:36,515 --> 00:05:38,715
in as short as six months,
you'd think they were crazy.
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00:05:38,755 --> 00:05:40,475
But that's essentially
what happened.
70
00:05:42,875 --> 00:05:45,995
Doctor Greenspan, you
had an ideology.
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00:05:46,275 --> 00:05:49,675
You had a belief that
72
00:05:50,355 --> 00:05:52,915
that free competitive
markets are by far
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00:05:53,155 --> 00:05:55,475
the unrivalled way to
organise economies.
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00:05:55,835 --> 00:05:58,795
"We've tried regulation.
None meaningfully worked."
75
00:05:58,875 --> 00:05:59,955
That was your quote.
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00:06:00,075 --> 00:06:03,955
Do you feel that your
ideology pushed you
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00:06:04,035 --> 00:06:06,755
to make decisions that you
wish you had not made?
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00:06:06,795 --> 00:06:10,115
Well remember that
what an ideology is,
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00:06:10,315 --> 00:06:11,995
it's a conceptual framework
80
00:06:12,075 --> 00:06:14,675
with a way people
deal with reality.
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00:06:15,075 --> 00:06:19,835
Everyone has one. You have to
exist you need an ideology.
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00:06:20,035 --> 00:06:23,155
The question is whether
it is accurate or not.
83
00:06:23,435 --> 00:06:27,395
And what I'm saying to you
is yes I found a flaw.
84
00:06:27,595 --> 00:06:30,795
I don't know how significant
or permanent it is
85
00:06:30,875 --> 00:06:33,075
but I've been very
distressed by that fact.
86
00:06:33,195 --> 00:06:36,435
You found a flaw
in the reality -
87
00:06:36,515 --> 00:06:39,235
A flaw in the model
that I perceived
88
00:06:39,355 --> 00:06:41,395
is the critical
functioning structure
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00:06:41,475 --> 00:06:44,635
that defines how the world
works, so to speak.
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00:06:47,795 --> 00:06:50,355
MUSIC
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00:07:02,835 --> 00:07:05,915
It wasn't so long ago in the
history of man's voyage
92
00:07:06,035 --> 00:07:09,635
to a better world that ships
were carrying eager passengers
93
00:07:09,675 --> 00:07:11,435
towards the shores
of a new nation
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00:07:11,555 --> 00:07:13,035
that was just in the building.
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00:07:13,915 --> 00:07:15,755
Our forefathers
were constructing
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00:07:15,795 --> 00:07:17,435
the foundation of this nation
97
00:07:18,195 --> 00:07:20,595
by interlocking
inseparably the blocks
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00:07:20,675 --> 00:07:22,955
of our political and
economic freedom.
99
00:07:27,195 --> 00:07:30,035
In some sense economics,
standard economics,
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00:07:30,115 --> 00:07:32,915
is a very optimistic view
of human nature, right?
101
00:07:32,995 --> 00:07:35,475
Everybody's wonderful.
Everybody's great.
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00:07:35,635 --> 00:07:39,235
Every person is a
perfect calculator.
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00:07:39,715 --> 00:07:41,675
And that's basically what
it means is that we have
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00:07:41,755 --> 00:07:44,755
lots of actors, each of them
doing the best thing for them
105
00:07:44,835 --> 00:07:48,315
and that creates some kind of
social benefit for everybody.
106
00:07:52,115 --> 00:07:54,315
The way of life our
forefathers established
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00:07:54,435 --> 00:07:56,595
on this foundation of freedom
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00:07:56,755 --> 00:07:59,515
drew people from the far
corners of the earth
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00:08:00,115 --> 00:08:02,115
and all those who set
foot on these shores
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00:08:02,195 --> 00:08:05,035
had the opportunity to build a
better life for themselves.
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00:08:06,555 --> 00:08:09,195
Even young Jonathan,
an unskilled lad
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00:08:09,275 --> 00:08:11,795
from across the sea
hoped to find a job
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00:08:11,915 --> 00:08:13,915
where he could progress
according to his ability
114
00:08:13,995 --> 00:08:14,995
and enterprise.
115
00:08:16,275 --> 00:08:19,075
Well there's many factors
that ultimately underlie
116
00:08:19,155 --> 00:08:21,155
the current financial
crisis but,
117
00:08:21,435 --> 00:08:23,755
one thing that comes
across in my mind
118
00:08:23,835 --> 00:08:25,995
is the intellectual change.
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00:08:26,395 --> 00:08:29,355
An idea. Mm an idea.
120
00:08:29,395 --> 00:08:34,315
In the 1970s the so-called
efficient markets hypothesis
121
00:08:34,635 --> 00:08:39,275
began to be received doctrine
in the universities.
122
00:08:41,355 --> 00:08:43,795
The simple version of the
efficient market hypothesis
123
00:08:43,875 --> 00:08:46,915
is that you have a value
of something in the market
124
00:08:46,995 --> 00:08:48,155
whatever it is.
125
00:08:48,235 --> 00:08:50,515
If it's too low people
would recognise it
126
00:08:50,595 --> 00:08:52,075
and then you would
bid the price up.
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00:08:52,155 --> 00:08:54,475
If it's too high people
would recognise it
128
00:08:54,555 --> 00:08:55,955
and then they'll
bid the price low.
129
00:08:56,035 --> 00:08:58,515
So you might have one opinion. I
might have the other opinion.
130
00:08:58,595 --> 00:09:00,235
But the opinion of
all of us in average
131
00:09:00,275 --> 00:09:02,035
is going to be kind of
the correct opinion.
132
00:09:02,115 --> 00:09:03,595
What's called the
wisdom of crowd.
133
00:09:03,675 --> 00:09:05,555
This is a hypothesis that
134
00:09:05,595 --> 00:09:10,235
all financial asset prices
are correct at all time.
135
00:09:10,235 --> 00:09:12,635
Well correct in the sense
that they accumulate
136
00:09:12,755 --> 00:09:15,955
all of the information,
pool the information
137
00:09:15,995 --> 00:09:19,755
and then become wiser
than any one individual
138
00:09:19,875 --> 00:09:23,995
so that it would be foolhardy to
ever question a market price.
139
00:09:25,915 --> 00:09:28,355
While the main street of
today doesn't look much like
140
00:09:28,355 --> 00:09:30,555
the main street of
Jonathan's time
141
00:09:30,635 --> 00:09:33,515
the principles about business
system remain the same.
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00:09:33,555 --> 00:09:35,715
But businessmen still
compete with one another
143
00:09:35,755 --> 00:09:38,395
for the consumers supply
of spendable dollars.
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00:09:39,115 --> 00:09:41,635
And Mrs Consumer is
still mighty critical
145
00:09:41,715 --> 00:09:43,075
of everything she buys.
146
00:09:43,475 --> 00:09:48,475
So under that thesis prices are
always at the correct price.
147
00:09:49,875 --> 00:09:52,275
You can't have an
asset price bubble
148
00:09:52,555 --> 00:09:54,995
in the efficient
market hypothesis.
149
00:09:56,115 --> 00:09:59,275
So let me tell you a
bit more about myself.
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00:09:59,955 --> 00:10:02,155
After MIT I went
to Silicon Valley
151
00:10:02,475 --> 00:10:05,835
and so I was there before the
bubble, during the bubble
152
00:10:05,915 --> 00:10:09,275
and slightly after the bubble,
the internet bubble that is.
153
00:10:09,835 --> 00:10:14,795
And so you know, after the
bubble I was like looking around
154
00:10:14,915 --> 00:10:17,275
and I was like wow you know,
what I'm doing is really risky,
155
00:10:17,355 --> 00:10:18,955
I've got to find
something more stable.
156
00:10:19,075 --> 00:10:22,435
What I became is I
became a bond trader
157
00:10:22,435 --> 00:10:25,235
of essentially sub-prime
mortgages bonds.
158
00:10:32,435 --> 00:10:34,755
I think we know
what a bubble is.
159
00:10:35,075 --> 00:10:38,715
It's a phenomenon that has been
repeating many times in history.
160
00:10:41,555 --> 00:10:44,195
If you look at the Oxford
English dictionary
161
00:10:44,235 --> 00:10:47,595
I think it says something like:
a speculative price increase
162
00:10:47,715 --> 00:10:49,155
that's not justified.
163
00:10:49,235 --> 00:10:51,995
It's filled with air like a
bubble and it eventually bursts.
164
00:10:54,555 --> 00:10:57,635
Economists would like to come
up with a good explanation.
165
00:10:58,035 --> 00:11:01,195
Why did we have a stock
market bubble in the 1990s
166
00:11:01,275 --> 00:11:03,635
and then a real estate
bubble in the 2000s?
167
00:11:06,275 --> 00:11:09,995
I like to give explanations
that sound right to me
168
00:11:10,075 --> 00:11:13,315
and maybe a little disreputable
in our own profession.
169
00:11:13,395 --> 00:11:15,395
And they're cultural
explanations.
170
00:11:15,475 --> 00:11:19,635
One thing that strikes me as
having been very formative
171
00:11:19,715 --> 00:11:23,875
for people's thinking was the
explosion of capitalism.
172
00:11:23,955 --> 00:11:27,075
Government is not the
solution to our problem.
173
00:11:27,595 --> 00:11:29,475
Government is the problem.
174
00:11:32,715 --> 00:11:34,315
It started with the
Margaret Thatcher
175
00:11:34,395 --> 00:11:36,155
and Ronald Reagan revolutions
176
00:11:36,235 --> 00:11:38,755
that brought free markets
to more prominence.
177
00:11:41,875 --> 00:11:45,995
And then it moved on with the
breakup of the Soviet Union.
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00:11:47,075 --> 00:11:50,715
MUSIC
179
00:11:54,915 --> 00:11:56,995
The advent of
capitalism in China.
180
00:11:57,995 --> 00:12:00,915
It seemed like there was an
intellectual revolution.
181
00:12:01,515 --> 00:12:03,235
That people believed
in markets.
182
00:12:04,355 --> 00:12:07,035
And so people thought that
we're in a new world:
183
00:12:07,075 --> 00:12:08,435
private property reigns!
184
00:12:09,715 --> 00:12:12,515
It struck a tone
of fear in people
185
00:12:12,875 --> 00:12:16,675
that I better get on this
or I will be left behind.
186
00:12:17,755 --> 00:12:19,715
I'd call it a gold
rush mentality.
187
00:12:20,675 --> 00:12:23,995
And it led to people
changing their self-image.
188
00:12:24,035 --> 00:12:26,395
They thought that I have to
change to become part of this,
189
00:12:26,515 --> 00:12:29,595
to be smart and stay
afloat in this world.
190
00:12:32,115 --> 00:12:34,035
I'm going to be an
investment genius.
191
00:12:34,635 --> 00:12:36,435
Play your hand at hotjobs.com.
192
00:12:36,515 --> 00:12:37,875
Dot com. - Dot com.
193
00:12:37,955 --> 00:12:41,155
It looked like the dot
com, all those tech stocks
194
00:12:41,235 --> 00:12:44,195
were a great way to invest your
money and so money flooded in.
195
00:12:44,275 --> 00:12:46,635
Today I'm talking
to some city pets.
196
00:12:46,755 --> 00:12:48,555
Ooh, ooh, hey poodles
197
00:12:48,635 --> 00:12:52,675
did you know that pets.com
delivers food, treats and toys?
198
00:12:52,755 --> 00:12:54,675
And, lo and behold,
you can't make money
199
00:12:54,755 --> 00:12:56,915
selling pet food
on the internet.
200
00:12:57,195 --> 00:13:00,595
But people thought it was this
new opportunity for investment.
201
00:13:00,715 --> 00:13:02,475
Doctor I think you
should see this.
202
00:13:03,355 --> 00:13:04,235
Why what it is?
203
00:13:04,355 --> 00:13:06,395
He's got money coming
out the wazoo.
204
00:13:06,395 --> 00:13:07,275
What do we have?
205
00:13:07,355 --> 00:13:08,475
Money out the wazoo.
206
00:13:09,395 --> 00:13:10,875
Move this man to
a private room.
207
00:13:12,475 --> 00:13:13,555
It's time for e-trade.
208
00:13:13,795 --> 00:13:16,595
Unfortunately we were
embarrassed by the fall
209
00:13:16,675 --> 00:13:20,475
in stock prices, so we
had to turn to some way
210
00:13:20,595 --> 00:13:25,075
of maintaining the ego
we had just developed.
211
00:13:25,795 --> 00:13:28,955
I think we had a smart response
called sector rotation.
212
00:13:29,035 --> 00:13:31,915
Rotate out of the - that's
a little bit of jargon.
213
00:13:31,995 --> 00:13:35,755
Rotate out of the equity sector
into the property sector.
214
00:13:36,075 --> 00:13:38,915
Introducing the world's
fastest money making system.
215
00:13:38,955 --> 00:13:41,595
John Alexander's Real
Estate Riches in 14 days!
216
00:13:42,435 --> 00:13:44,795
It accelerated largely
through media.
217
00:13:44,915 --> 00:13:47,035
Television shows that
focused on the bubble
218
00:13:47,075 --> 00:13:50,075
and ad campaigns that
reinforced notions
219
00:13:50,155 --> 00:13:51,755
that seemed to
support the bubble.
220
00:13:51,835 --> 00:13:55,195
Wouldn't you like to learn how
to make a fortune in real estate
221
00:13:55,275 --> 00:13:57,075
without needing any money?
222
00:13:57,155 --> 00:14:00,315
People were so pleased that
they had found this smart,
223
00:14:00,395 --> 00:14:02,915
at home, investment
that they understood
224
00:14:02,995 --> 00:14:05,915
and knew and that they
were very confident about.
225
00:14:05,995 --> 00:14:08,355
There's no reason that
you can't be living
226
00:14:08,395 --> 00:14:11,235
the same life I am
in no time at all.
227
00:14:11,555 --> 00:14:14,235
MUSIC
228
00:14:16,475 --> 00:14:17,835
It's humiliating.
229
00:14:18,515 --> 00:14:20,675
I am an economics correspondent
for the New York Times
230
00:14:20,755 --> 00:14:22,595
and I'm 10 months past due
231
00:14:22,675 --> 00:14:25,315
and in extended discussions
with the lender.
232
00:14:26,155 --> 00:14:28,995
I'm kind of amazed actually
that I'm still in this house.
233
00:14:38,355 --> 00:14:40,915
That deal that I got
is not a good deal
234
00:14:40,955 --> 00:14:43,875
and I cannot keep the
house with this deal.
235
00:14:44,315 --> 00:14:48,555
All the bad mortgage you can
ever imagine in this planet
236
00:14:48,715 --> 00:14:50,475
that the kind of
mortgage I have.
237
00:14:55,155 --> 00:14:57,595
MUSIC
238
00:14:59,835 --> 00:15:02,915
I'm a working stiff. I'm a
regular guy. I have a job.
239
00:15:03,075 --> 00:15:04,395
I'm trying to get ahead.
240
00:15:05,675 --> 00:15:07,955
And I thought this was
a smart way to do it.
241
00:15:19,435 --> 00:15:21,235
Here's how it started for me.
242
00:15:22,035 --> 00:15:24,195
I got married 6 years ago.
243
00:15:24,635 --> 00:15:26,955
And about a year
into our marriage
244
00:15:26,995 --> 00:15:29,035
my wife was saying
at home and decided
245
00:15:29,075 --> 00:15:31,715
now I want to do something
so she looked around
246
00:15:31,755 --> 00:15:33,395
and thought she'd try
to sell real estate
247
00:15:33,595 --> 00:15:36,675
and she took the course,
passed the test,
248
00:15:36,715 --> 00:15:40,595
went to work for a pretty large
Century 21 office in our area
249
00:15:41,115 --> 00:15:45,755
and the broker there, that was
maybe 2 years into the boom,
250
00:15:46,275 --> 00:15:48,195
and he said to her, he
said, I would recommend
251
00:15:48,275 --> 00:15:49,795
everybody that owns a house
252
00:15:50,555 --> 00:15:52,675
borrow as much as
you can against it.
253
00:15:52,715 --> 00:15:54,555
Take out every
nickel that you can
254
00:15:54,635 --> 00:15:57,595
and invest it in real estate.
You just can't lose.
255
00:15:57,795 --> 00:15:59,515
You can always tell, can't you?
256
00:15:59,635 --> 00:16:01,835
A town with good
real estate people
257
00:16:02,075 --> 00:16:04,395
is a more substantial community
258
00:16:04,435 --> 00:16:06,595
because more people
own their own homes.
259
00:16:06,675 --> 00:16:07,635
That's right.
260
00:16:08,835 --> 00:16:12,595
MUSIC
261
00:16:18,995 --> 00:16:21,715
You can look at a house that
was 2 years ago 300,000
262
00:16:21,795 --> 00:16:22,955
and now they're 600,000.
263
00:16:23,835 --> 00:16:25,835
They're just astronomical.
264
00:16:25,955 --> 00:16:27,755
And you see it happening
all around you.
265
00:16:27,835 --> 00:16:29,155
Everybody's getting in on it
266
00:16:29,755 --> 00:16:32,635
so I'd been in my house 12
years or something like that
267
00:16:32,675 --> 00:16:35,395
and I'd built up
equity and I thought:
268
00:16:35,715 --> 00:16:37,675
"wow he's right, I
should do that."
269
00:16:37,715 --> 00:16:38,835
So that's what I did.
270
00:16:42,395 --> 00:16:45,435
The efficient market hypothesis
is built on a simple idea.
271
00:16:45,755 --> 00:16:47,835
That as the price
of a good goes up,
272
00:16:48,115 --> 00:16:49,835
we tend to demand less of it.
273
00:16:50,755 --> 00:16:53,195
So the supply and
demand matches.
274
00:16:53,555 --> 00:16:56,515
That's what gives us the
stability in the system.
275
00:16:58,075 --> 00:17:01,515
If you imagine for example
something like a refrigerator.
276
00:17:02,435 --> 00:17:04,555
If its price rises dramatically
277
00:17:04,635 --> 00:17:06,115
people are going to make do
278
00:17:06,195 --> 00:17:07,875
with the refrigerator
they've already got
279
00:17:10,075 --> 00:17:13,635
When they start to treat a
good as a financial asset
280
00:17:13,715 --> 00:17:16,675
as people started to do
with houses in the boom.
281
00:17:19,555 --> 00:17:22,475
That's when you get into
a very unstable market.
282
00:17:25,795 --> 00:17:28,435
MUSIC
283
00:17:29,715 --> 00:17:33,995
Asset markets are dramatically
less stable than goods markets.
284
00:17:34,675 --> 00:17:36,915
You don't see the
price of Chevrolets
285
00:17:37,075 --> 00:17:39,035
sky-rocket and then plunge.
286
00:17:40,955 --> 00:17:43,715
The key difference between
an asset and a good
287
00:17:43,755 --> 00:17:46,715
is when you buy a good
you want to use it.
288
00:17:47,195 --> 00:17:48,755
You're not going to resell it.
289
00:17:48,955 --> 00:17:51,155
When you're buying an
asset, you're buying it
290
00:17:51,195 --> 00:17:53,435
in the hope of being able
to sell it in the future
291
00:17:53,875 --> 00:17:55,235
for a higher price.
292
00:17:56,395 --> 00:17:58,435
So if we see that
its price is rising
293
00:17:58,475 --> 00:18:00,955
we then tell ourselves
that we're very smart.
294
00:18:01,075 --> 00:18:02,995
and we go out and buy
some more of that asset.
295
00:18:03,915 --> 00:18:09,395
So in goods markets when
prices rise, demand falls.
296
00:18:09,875 --> 00:18:15,075
In asset markets when prices
rise demand often rises as well.
297
00:18:16,075 --> 00:18:18,395
In the asset market
the very fact
298
00:18:18,475 --> 00:18:21,555
of its having grown
in price fuels demand
299
00:18:21,635 --> 00:18:24,555
for additional purchases
of the asset.
300
00:18:25,315 --> 00:18:27,715
It also fuels additional
purchasing power
301
00:18:27,795 --> 00:18:30,555
because people can borrow
more against the value
302
00:18:30,635 --> 00:18:32,835
of the assets they own
that went up in price.
303
00:18:33,555 --> 00:18:37,355
MUSIC
304
00:18:41,755 --> 00:18:44,875
Most of these assets are
bought financed with debt.
305
00:18:49,795 --> 00:18:52,675
When we buy a house, we
buy it with a mortgage
306
00:18:52,755 --> 00:18:54,435
so it's debt financed.
307
00:18:56,115 --> 00:18:59,835
If one of those assets goes up
you're able to borrow more money
308
00:19:00,555 --> 00:19:03,755
against that asset so
your spending power
309
00:19:03,875 --> 00:19:07,035
for new assets rises
as the prices go up.
310
00:19:11,595 --> 00:19:13,835
I bought several
investment properties.
311
00:19:13,955 --> 00:19:17,622
I buy one and I took
equity out of my house
312
00:19:17,635 --> 00:19:20,795
or I'd buy one and then
go look at another one,
313
00:19:20,835 --> 00:19:22,435
take equity from the
one I'd just bought,
314
00:19:22,835 --> 00:19:24,635
in order to buy as
much as I could.
315
00:19:28,235 --> 00:19:30,635
I bought at exactly
the wrong time.
316
00:19:30,728 --> 00:19:32,425
I went on a buying spree
right at the peak.
317
00:19:36,730 --> 00:19:39,284
In fact the most expensive
property I bought in Hawaii
318
00:19:39,365 --> 00:19:42,938
is still today the highest
price in that development
319
00:19:42,980 --> 00:19:44,112
3 and a half years later.
320
00:19:45,605 --> 00:19:46,807
I was the peak.
321
00:19:46,888 --> 00:19:49,081
And to buy around the peak
I was the highest one.
322
00:19:49,503 --> 00:19:51,670
Immediately after that
the next one was less.
323
00:19:52,948 --> 00:19:54,128
How does that make you feel?
324
00:19:54,209 --> 00:19:55,084
Great.
325
00:19:57,394 --> 00:20:00,268
AMBIENT SOUND
326
00:20:01,105 --> 00:20:03,284
Doctor Greenspan your
view of the world,
327
00:20:03,365 --> 00:20:06,857
your ideology was not right.
It was not was working.
328
00:20:06,938 --> 00:20:10,563
Precisely. No that's precisely
the reason I was shocked
329
00:20:10,647 --> 00:20:13,688
because I had been going
for 40 years or more
330
00:20:13,730 --> 00:20:15,813
with very considerable evidence
331
00:20:15,855 --> 00:20:17,760
that it was working
exceptionally well.
332
00:20:21,605 --> 00:20:24,105
Greenspan had been working
to the assumption
333
00:20:24,147 --> 00:20:27,855
that the financial system was
a self-stabilising system.
334
00:20:29,438 --> 00:20:33,480
It meant that he took a view
of asset price bubbles,
335
00:20:33,839 --> 00:20:38,563
which was that it really
wasn't in his remit
336
00:20:38,605 --> 00:20:40,096
to do anything about them.
337
00:20:42,988 --> 00:20:45,604
MUSIC
338
00:20:47,313 --> 00:20:50,188
He had this idea that
the Central Bank
339
00:20:50,272 --> 00:20:53,397
should never question
asset prices.
340
00:20:53,438 --> 00:20:56,839
It should only take action when
asset prices started to fall.
341
00:20:58,647 --> 00:21:01,730
So whenever there was
the tiniest slowdown
342
00:21:01,772 --> 00:21:04,272
he'd be leaping in
with monetary stimulus
343
00:21:04,313 --> 00:21:07,563
cutting interest rates and
trying to boost activity again.
344
00:21:09,550 --> 00:21:11,605
And of course boosting
economic activity
345
00:21:11,688 --> 00:21:13,292
is just a euphemism
for trying to
346
00:21:13,373 --> 00:21:15,540
encourage the economy
to borrow even more.
347
00:21:16,476 --> 00:21:19,935
Creating a credit boom
or a credit bubble.
348
00:21:20,995 --> 00:21:24,480
So we're in this
crisis in large part
349
00:21:24,522 --> 00:21:27,397
because our Central Banks have,
350
00:21:27,438 --> 00:21:30,480
for the last two or three
decades, encouraged us to
351
00:21:30,522 --> 00:21:34,188
borrow more and more and
more and eventually
352
00:21:34,230 --> 00:21:36,456
got us into this
unsustainable state.
353
00:21:40,331 --> 00:21:43,188
Now if the Central
Banks operating
354
00:21:43,272 --> 00:21:46,735
its interest rate policy
in a way to encourage
355
00:21:46,816 --> 00:21:49,089
asset prices to keep inflating
356
00:21:49,862 --> 00:21:52,867
obviously that's going to
benefit that portion of society
357
00:21:52,948 --> 00:21:55,981
that owns assets,
which is typically
358
00:21:56,062 --> 00:21:59,268
the wealthy end of the
spectrum already.
359
00:22:06,776 --> 00:22:11,230
In 1900 many men had to
work 10 hours a day,
360
00:22:11,620 --> 00:22:15,771
6 days a week, to earn
enough money to provide
361
00:22:15,852 --> 00:22:17,956
their families with
the bare essentials.
362
00:22:19,404 --> 00:22:23,065
And labour was the rule in the
home as well as the factory.
363
00:22:24,813 --> 00:22:26,480
A half century later
364
00:22:26,522 --> 00:22:29,128
we had invested enough
in our business system
365
00:22:29,315 --> 00:22:31,230
to provide the average
worker with efficient
366
00:22:31,272 --> 00:22:32,772
and expensive buildings
367
00:22:32,813 --> 00:22:35,688
and machinery to enable
him to produce enough
368
00:22:35,730 --> 00:22:38,730
in a 40 hour week to
earn twice as much
369
00:22:38,772 --> 00:22:42,436
as the 1900 worker earned
in a 60 hour week.
370
00:22:43,272 --> 00:22:46,808
This shorter work week gives
us all more leisure time
371
00:22:46,889 --> 00:22:50,526
to enjoy a standard of living
beyond the wildest dreams
372
00:22:50,607 --> 00:22:52,881
of anyone who lived
a half century ago.
373
00:22:53,287 --> 00:22:56,730
The more we earn the
more our families have,
374
00:22:56,813 --> 00:22:58,615
to spend for the things
they need and want.
375
00:23:02,201 --> 00:23:04,497
You ask an American
when was America
376
00:23:04,538 --> 00:23:06,663
most prosperous in
the 20th century?
377
00:23:06,810 --> 00:23:09,948
Most Americans outside of
financiers on Wall Street
378
00:23:10,029 --> 00:23:11,792
will tell you the 1950s.
379
00:23:11,873 --> 00:23:14,666
It's thought of as this
time of perfection.
380
00:23:14,747 --> 00:23:18,261
This golden age of
capitalism with big fin cars
381
00:23:18,342 --> 00:23:22,665
and houses and anybody,
any guy, could get a job
382
00:23:22,746 --> 00:23:24,717
and support his wife and kids.
383
00:23:26,506 --> 00:23:28,598
And this kind of
lifestyle isn't possible
384
00:23:28,679 --> 00:23:29,904
for most people today.
385
00:23:31,014 --> 00:23:33,580
And fortunately we
have been able to
386
00:23:33,663 --> 00:23:35,663
raise our standard of living
387
00:23:35,982 --> 00:23:38,683
without sacrificing the
spiritual side of life
388
00:23:38,764 --> 00:23:40,997
which means so much to
the American family.
389
00:23:41,357 --> 00:23:43,705
Now this is also the
moment in America
390
00:23:43,747 --> 00:23:46,997
that has the least income
inequality in our history.
391
00:23:47,408 --> 00:23:48,985
And I don't think
that's a coincidence.
392
00:23:49,647 --> 00:23:51,936
MUSIC
393
00:23:55,248 --> 00:23:57,936
Before the sort of
World War II period,
394
00:23:57,973 --> 00:23:59,650
income inequality
was very high.
395
00:24:02,930 --> 00:24:06,001
The share of total
American income
396
00:24:06,423 --> 00:24:09,233
going to just the top 1 percent
397
00:24:09,314 --> 00:24:14,805
peaked in 1929 at
about 22 percent.
398
00:24:15,831 --> 00:24:18,039
Which is an
extraordinary figure.
399
00:24:19,617 --> 00:24:23,011
And then as you go into World
War II, income inequality
400
00:24:23,092 --> 00:24:26,301
falls from 1945 to 1970.
401
00:24:26,836 --> 00:24:31,990
In the 1970s the top 1 percent
were getting only 9 percent.
402
00:24:32,071 --> 00:24:33,734
That was a huge fall.
403
00:24:35,383 --> 00:24:38,269
And then in the 1970s you
start to see it rise again.
404
00:24:38,350 --> 00:24:40,225
Accelerating in the 1980s.
405
00:24:41,141 --> 00:24:43,906
MUSIC
406
00:24:46,023 --> 00:24:49,320
There's been a big shift in the
way income growth has occurred
407
00:24:49,437 --> 00:24:51,763
in the United States certainly
but also in other countries
408
00:24:51,844 --> 00:24:53,719
as well, but not to
the same degree.
409
00:24:57,805 --> 00:25:01,013
What we've seen is that
unlike the three decades
410
00:25:01,055 --> 00:25:03,847
right after World War
II when incomes grew
411
00:25:03,888 --> 00:25:05,656
at about the same
rate for everyone
412
00:25:05,737 --> 00:25:08,922
starting in the early 70s
roughly, income growth
413
00:25:09,003 --> 00:25:11,078
started accumulating
only at the top.
414
00:25:12,851 --> 00:25:16,937
MUSIC
415
00:25:20,741 --> 00:25:24,557
The share of the top 1
percent went shooting up
416
00:25:24,638 --> 00:25:27,388
like a July the 4th sky-rocket
417
00:25:27,867 --> 00:25:31,727
back up to about the
same as in 1929.
418
00:25:36,797 --> 00:25:39,263
And partly that can be
explained by the credit boom
419
00:25:39,305 --> 00:25:40,336
or the credit bubble.
420
00:25:40,461 --> 00:25:42,852
You were okay up to
that credit business,
421
00:25:43,070 --> 00:25:44,656
couldn't you make
that a bit clearer?
422
00:25:44,737 --> 00:25:48,237
To really understand it you
have to go back to the 1920s.
423
00:25:50,972 --> 00:25:53,930
There was increasingly
inequality
424
00:25:53,972 --> 00:25:55,930
but there was also
increasing debt.
425
00:25:57,437 --> 00:26:01,638
The US was developing
great productive capacity
426
00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:05,055
in consumer goods industry
such as refrigerators,
427
00:26:05,138 --> 00:26:07,680
such as radios, such
as auto mobiles.
428
00:26:09,641 --> 00:26:11,722
And these were very expensive
429
00:26:11,763 --> 00:26:13,562
for the average
worker at the time.
430
00:26:14,513 --> 00:26:17,430
And so over the mid
20s to late 20s
431
00:26:17,513 --> 00:26:21,195
there's an incredible explosion
of instalment credit in America.
432
00:26:21,276 --> 00:26:24,404
People could borrow to pay
for all the new modern
433
00:26:24,485 --> 00:26:25,820
electric appliances.
434
00:26:26,047 --> 00:26:31,297
And you had a rapid rise
in credit in the economy
435
00:26:32,461 --> 00:26:36,047
to the point at which
we got too much credit,
436
00:26:36,128 --> 00:26:40,295
too much indebtedness and then
eventually the system collapsed.
437
00:26:41,143 --> 00:26:46,184
So the 1920s can actually be
seen as a kind of precursor
438
00:26:46,265 --> 00:26:49,015
of what happened in the 2000s.
439
00:26:50,427 --> 00:26:53,805
MUSIC
440
00:26:59,989 --> 00:27:03,865
So you have a very
pronounced U shape curve
441
00:27:03,947 --> 00:27:07,947
just as we have seen happening
with income distribution.
442
00:27:09,530 --> 00:27:13,363
And that's because economic
activity, profit growth
443
00:27:13,405 --> 00:27:16,318
and credit creation are
all intimately linked.
444
00:27:16,399 --> 00:27:23,037
Ah yes dear lady. High, high
quality at a low, low price.
445
00:27:23,530 --> 00:27:25,822
If the banks are
more willing to lend
446
00:27:25,863 --> 00:27:30,572
it becomes easier for companies
or for households to spend
447
00:27:30,613 --> 00:27:33,822
because they can borrow money
and they can then spend it.
448
00:27:33,947 --> 00:27:37,488
Sales dollars from satisfied
customers once again.
449
00:27:37,530 --> 00:27:41,322
So as credit rises
corporate profits rise.
450
00:27:41,405 --> 00:27:45,197
The remainder of the profit
is paid out as dividends.
451
00:27:45,405 --> 00:27:48,697
But who tends to own the
shares in the corporate
452
00:27:48,738 --> 00:27:50,613
and the shares in the bank?
453
00:27:50,655 --> 00:27:54,405
Generally it's the
wealthier people that own
454
00:27:54,447 --> 00:27:56,863
the capital stock
of an economy.
455
00:27:56,947 --> 00:28:00,030
So if profitability is
being boosted then there's
456
00:28:00,072 --> 00:28:04,822
a natural tendency to
polarise wealth distribution
457
00:28:04,863 --> 00:28:06,780
within the economy as well.
458
00:28:10,030 --> 00:28:12,655
That's a symptom
of a credit cycle.
459
00:28:14,530 --> 00:28:17,405
Say, that sure was a neat job.
460
00:28:17,545 --> 00:28:20,521
MUSIC
461
00:28:21,530 --> 00:28:24,613
That building across is the
most important building
462
00:28:24,655 --> 00:28:25,780
of Wall Street.
463
00:28:25,861 --> 00:28:28,572
That building is the House
of Morgan Building.
464
00:28:29,447 --> 00:28:32,530
That's where JP Morgan's
original bank was.
465
00:28:34,488 --> 00:28:37,363
The institutions that are
going to make the most profit
466
00:28:37,405 --> 00:28:40,738
from that credit creation
process are of course the banks.
467
00:28:41,197 --> 00:28:44,447
Every time a loan is made
they take a margin on it.
468
00:28:44,488 --> 00:28:46,572
Every time a bond
is traded they take
469
00:28:46,613 --> 00:28:48,488
a margin on that as well.
470
00:28:48,572 --> 00:28:53,155
So the credit bubble creates
a system where you boost
471
00:28:53,197 --> 00:28:55,863
financial profitability
472
00:28:55,947 --> 00:28:59,113
more than profitability in
the rest of the economy.
473
00:29:01,257 --> 00:29:04,732
MUSIC
474
00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:19,530
So if there's a boost
of profitability
475
00:29:19,572 --> 00:29:23,488
for the banking sector it
tends to drop quite quickly
476
00:29:24,363 --> 00:29:28,280
through to pay for bankers,
through to the bonuses.
477
00:29:28,488 --> 00:29:30,113
Ha! Here we go.
478
00:29:32,738 --> 00:29:35,488
I think the compensation
strategy that we've had
479
00:29:35,530 --> 00:29:37,280
for many years
480
00:29:37,363 --> 00:29:40,197
is in line with best
practices to encourage
481
00:29:40,238 --> 00:29:41,738
long term incentives.
482
00:29:41,947 --> 00:29:46,517
The closer you are to the money
the more of it you make.
483
00:29:46,740 --> 00:29:48,397
If I took anybody
and I paid them
484
00:29:48,510 --> 00:29:50,173
10 million dollars
for their job,
485
00:29:50,254 --> 00:29:51,634
I took you and I
started paying you
486
00:29:51,674 --> 00:29:53,075
10 million dollars
for your job,
487
00:29:53,155 --> 00:29:54,988
in 2 weeks you will think
you will deserve it.
488
00:29:55,113 --> 00:29:57,613
I'm looking forward
to my next million.
489
00:29:57,738 --> 00:30:01,988
We want to hire and retain the
smartest people in the world.
490
00:30:02,155 --> 00:30:06,030
And so we have to
offer them incentives
491
00:30:06,072 --> 00:30:10,072
which can compete with those
that are trying to attract
492
00:30:10,113 --> 00:30:12,806
the best and the smartest
people in the world too.
493
00:30:12,905 --> 00:30:15,363
You know we just want one
thing from Wall Street;
494
00:30:15,405 --> 00:30:17,247
we'd like them to be
able to do the maths.
495
00:30:17,328 --> 00:30:18,411
That's all we want.
496
00:30:18,492 --> 00:30:20,356
We just want them to be
able to do arithmetic.
497
00:30:20,437 --> 00:30:22,043
And they got it
completely wrong.
498
00:30:22,124 --> 00:30:24,957
If they were that good we
wouldn't have been in this mess.
499
00:30:25,489 --> 00:30:29,323
Alright so our next stop's
going to be Deutsche Bank
500
00:30:29,363 --> 00:30:32,322
where I used to work.
Alright. Let's go.
501
00:30:34,146 --> 00:30:36,970
MUSIC
502
00:30:40,322 --> 00:30:43,198
So it's been an enormous
pyramiding of income
503
00:30:43,279 --> 00:30:44,952
and wealth in the
last 30 years.
504
00:30:45,363 --> 00:30:47,738
If you look at the people
in the top deciles,
505
00:30:47,780 --> 00:30:50,905
the lion's share of the
growth that occurred
506
00:30:50,988 --> 00:30:53,072
there was in the top 1 percent.
507
00:30:53,238 --> 00:30:55,947
Slice that up and you'll see
the lion's share of the growth
508
00:30:56,030 --> 00:30:59,363
in the top 1 percent occurring
in the top 1/10th of 1 percent
509
00:30:59,447 --> 00:31:01,405
and so on as far
as we've managed
510
00:31:01,447 --> 00:31:03,655
to go up and find data to check
511
00:31:04,655 --> 00:31:10,030
MUSIC
512
00:31:40,412 --> 00:31:43,787
For everybody else
this new inequality
513
00:31:43,868 --> 00:31:46,659
meant a bunch of things.
514
00:31:46,822 --> 00:31:49,572
Only a business operating
at a steady profit
515
00:31:49,655 --> 00:31:51,655
can give its workers
security...
516
00:31:51,863 --> 00:31:56,572
From World War II until about
1970 wages grew very steadily.
517
00:31:56,889 --> 00:32:00,699
There was a widespread well-
paid manufacturing economy.
518
00:32:00,782 --> 00:32:02,824
Good steelwork, good car work.
519
00:32:02,905 --> 00:32:05,613
Higher wages and
steady employment.
520
00:32:07,030 --> 00:32:09,363
All this changed after 1970.
521
00:32:09,531 --> 00:32:13,531
With double whammies of
the rise of globalisation
522
00:32:13,572 --> 00:32:15,572
and the industrialisation
beginning to hit
523
00:32:15,613 --> 00:32:17,030
the American workforce.
524
00:32:22,647 --> 00:32:25,488
Through the 1950s, 60s, 70s,
525
00:32:25,686 --> 00:32:28,936
the bottom 90 percent of
the American population
526
00:32:29,108 --> 00:32:33,811
was getting roughly 65
percent of national income.
527
00:32:38,556 --> 00:32:41,850
That share fell to
above 50 percent
528
00:32:41,931 --> 00:32:44,280
in the last few years.
529
00:32:48,623 --> 00:32:51,855
Adjusted for inflation the
medium wages stagnated
530
00:32:51,936 --> 00:32:53,639
from the early 1970s
531
00:32:53,720 --> 00:32:56,498
except for a small blip in
the early 90s, until today.
532
00:33:00,769 --> 00:33:06,228
MUSIC
533
00:33:18,831 --> 00:33:20,613
Well there are certainly
primary residences
534
00:33:20,697 --> 00:33:22,572
here in Westhampton Beach.
535
00:33:23,376 --> 00:33:25,206
But for the most part
they're secondary.
536
00:33:26,542 --> 00:33:28,616
Some of these homes are
third and fourth homes
537
00:33:28,697 --> 00:33:30,613
for some of the people here.
538
00:33:35,081 --> 00:33:37,447
You can certainly get
a small cottage here
539
00:33:37,488 --> 00:33:40,738
somewhere in 500,000
to 1 million dollars
540
00:33:40,822 --> 00:33:42,988
but the lower end
properties are rare
541
00:33:43,030 --> 00:33:46,280
and you generally need to
really put some money into them
542
00:33:46,322 --> 00:33:47,988
to make them liveable.
543
00:33:52,034 --> 00:33:54,773
With that said you can
certainly afford a house here
544
00:33:54,854 --> 00:34:00,135
around 900,000 dollars or way up
to 10, 12, 20 million dollars.
545
00:34:00,548 --> 00:34:04,346
So depending on how much money
you have in your back pocket.
546
00:34:12,713 --> 00:34:15,380
So we're about 2 weeks
away from being complete.
547
00:34:15,464 --> 00:34:18,464
Home-owners taking possession
in about 2 weeks time.
548
00:34:18,505 --> 00:34:19,463
It's stunning.
549
00:34:19,505 --> 00:34:23,380
Thank you. Right now we're
just doing a final punch list
550
00:34:23,422 --> 00:34:27,505
and walk-through and final
touch ups as you can see.
551
00:34:28,547 --> 00:34:32,412
Great raised panel detail.
Custom kitchens.
552
00:34:32,493 --> 00:34:34,195
It's really coming
along amazingly.
553
00:34:34,276 --> 00:34:35,149
Thank you.
554
00:34:35,230 --> 00:34:37,380
The gentleman who
bought the house
555
00:34:37,463 --> 00:34:40,380
is a chief operating officer
of a hedge fund in Manhattan.
556
00:34:41,068 --> 00:34:43,505
And this is their summer
home here in the Hamptons.
557
00:34:43,547 --> 00:34:45,990
They have another home up in
West Chester, Upper New York.
558
00:34:46,404 --> 00:34:49,295
Here's your home audio
control for system.
559
00:34:49,376 --> 00:34:52,514
Again he's able to control the
house anywhere in the country
560
00:34:52,630 --> 00:34:54,467
or anywhere in the world
as a matter of fact.
561
00:34:54,600 --> 00:34:57,797
It used to be that
more was better.
562
00:34:57,878 --> 00:35:01,373
More was more impressive.
More was everything.
563
00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:03,353
I think what we have
in Westhampton Beach
564
00:35:03,434 --> 00:35:06,922
is what most people are looking
for, which is simpler.
565
00:35:07,005 --> 00:35:10,128
It used to be the 10,000,
15,000 square foot house
566
00:35:10,209 --> 00:35:11,047
had to be.
567
00:35:11,130 --> 00:35:15,755
Today that smart
money is saying
568
00:35:16,086 --> 00:35:17,623
I want to simplify my life.
569
00:35:19,896 --> 00:35:24,146
People are keen to
want to scale down.
570
00:35:24,912 --> 00:35:26,998
That's what Westhampton
Beach offers to people.
571
00:35:27,079 --> 00:35:29,204
It offers them a simpler life.
572
00:35:29,755 --> 00:35:32,422
Do I need the 17,000
square foot home
573
00:35:32,588 --> 00:35:36,209
or really can I survive with
the 8,000 square foot home?
574
00:35:38,297 --> 00:35:39,545
There's plenty here.
575
00:35:39,626 --> 00:35:41,701
And you still get the
Hampton address.
576
00:35:44,374 --> 00:35:49,295
MUSIC
577
00:35:52,088 --> 00:35:54,713
As you go up the income
distribution scale
578
00:35:54,755 --> 00:35:57,630
what people spend their
money on changes.
579
00:35:58,380 --> 00:36:01,755
So that consumer goods
relatively decrease.
580
00:36:01,838 --> 00:36:03,505
Housing increases a lot.
581
00:36:03,547 --> 00:36:06,630
But then when you finally get
to the top of the economy
582
00:36:07,005 --> 00:36:09,922
they're spending most of
their money on assets
583
00:36:10,005 --> 00:36:11,922
rather than manufactured goods.
584
00:36:14,297 --> 00:36:18,505
And so this upwards income
redistribution in itself.
585
00:36:18,588 --> 00:36:21,380
tends to ignite asset bubbles
586
00:36:21,630 --> 00:36:24,838
That process of
income distribution
587
00:36:24,838 --> 00:36:27,922
created a bidding for
houses indirectly.
588
00:36:28,630 --> 00:36:32,213
The people at the top of the
income ladder buy mansions.
589
00:36:32,755 --> 00:36:35,838
People in the middle don't seem
offended by that in America.
590
00:36:35,880 --> 00:36:38,005
They want to see
pictures of the mansions
591
00:36:38,005 --> 00:36:40,713
But what does happen is
that when the people
592
00:36:40,755 --> 00:36:43,963
people at the top build bigger
their bigger houses shift
593
00:36:44,005 --> 00:36:46,588
the frame of reference for
people who are near them
594
00:36:46,630 --> 00:36:47,756
in the income distribution.
595
00:36:47,837 --> 00:36:50,264
People have a lot of money
but not quite at the top.
596
00:36:52,600 --> 00:36:56,428
MUSIC
597
00:37:05,297 --> 00:37:08,255
So you get a cascade
one stage at a time
598
00:37:08,297 --> 00:37:11,130
that drifts down through
the income distribution.
599
00:37:13,088 --> 00:37:16,213
The medium family now
if it wants to buy
600
00:37:16,297 --> 00:37:18,463
the medium priced new
house for its area
601
00:37:18,505 --> 00:37:22,713
it's got to buy one that's now
2400 square feet in size.
602
00:37:23,547 --> 00:37:26,713
In 1970 it was about
1600 square feet.
603
00:37:27,172 --> 00:37:30,463
So 50 per cent larger house you
have to buy if you want to match
604
00:37:30,463 --> 00:37:32,797
the spending of people
at your income level
605
00:37:32,922 --> 00:37:34,422
if you're in the middle.
606
00:37:34,463 --> 00:37:35,755
Well maybe you shouldn't
607
00:37:35,797 --> 00:37:37,755
because you don't
have any more money,
608
00:37:37,797 --> 00:37:39,338
you can't afford that house
609
00:37:39,380 --> 00:37:41,380
but then you say well if I
don't match the spending
610
00:37:41,422 --> 00:37:42,880
of people in my area
611
00:37:42,963 --> 00:37:45,755
it'll be my kids who go to the
inferior schools because there's
612
00:37:45,797 --> 00:37:48,963
a very tight link between how
good the schools are in the area
613
00:37:49,005 --> 00:37:50,713
and how much the houses cost.
614
00:37:51,130 --> 00:37:54,463
So it's really a dilemma for
the family in the middle.
615
00:37:58,015 --> 00:38:00,473
Oh I don't know
what to do Jenny.
616
00:38:01,788 --> 00:38:04,621
I want that house so
bad I can taste it.
617
00:38:05,676 --> 00:38:07,343
Maybe we ought to wait.
618
00:38:08,005 --> 00:38:10,713
My colleague Carl Case and
I we wanted to find out
619
00:38:10,797 --> 00:38:13,338
what were the dynamics of
home prices and there was
620
00:38:13,380 --> 00:38:17,838
surprisingly little academic
or scholarly literature on it.
621
00:38:17,922 --> 00:38:22,547
Someone would publish a paper
in you know, 1953 or something
622
00:38:22,588 --> 00:38:25,505
and then it would
just be forgotten.
623
00:38:26,963 --> 00:38:29,130
I'd find them in dusty volumes.
624
00:38:30,172 --> 00:38:32,422
And I thought well I'll
link them together.
625
00:38:32,422 --> 00:38:35,505
So I created for the United
States a home price index
626
00:38:35,547 --> 00:38:37,588
from 1890 to the present.
627
00:38:43,047 --> 00:38:44,922
And when I corrected
these for inflation,
628
00:38:44,963 --> 00:38:47,005
consumer price index inflation,
629
00:38:47,047 --> 00:38:51,255
to my surprise there was no
increase in home prices .
630
00:38:51,297 --> 00:38:54,213
from 1890 to 1990.
631
00:38:56,005 --> 00:38:57,797
It was just the same.
632
00:39:01,255 --> 00:39:03,672
And then there was this
huge bubble in the US
633
00:39:03,713 --> 00:39:05,047
starting in 2000.
634
00:39:12,603 --> 00:39:14,478
And that was the only one.
635
00:39:19,803 --> 00:39:22,630
Savers and home-owners
are capitalists.
636
00:39:22,797 --> 00:39:25,422
They've worked and saved
to make the biggest
637
00:39:25,463 --> 00:39:27,797
single purchase in
their lifetimes.
638
00:39:28,162 --> 00:39:30,505
They have a share of
America's wealth.
639
00:39:30,713 --> 00:39:33,880
They've seen capitalism work
and they've made it work
640
00:39:33,922 --> 00:39:36,672
at home and at their
own communities.
641
00:39:36,714 --> 00:39:38,714
On the one hand you
have home-buyers
642
00:39:38,797 --> 00:39:40,505
struggling to make ends meet,
643
00:39:40,547 --> 00:39:43,005
looking for the only
way they know how to
644
00:39:43,047 --> 00:39:44,797
make money in our economy
645
00:39:44,880 --> 00:39:46,797
They can't make money
through their labour
646
00:39:46,880 --> 00:39:49,547
so but maybe they
can make it through
647
00:39:49,588 --> 00:39:52,005
buying a house and seeing the
value of that house increase.
648
00:39:52,463 --> 00:39:56,005
So people look to mortgages,
these easy to get mortgages
649
00:39:56,088 --> 00:39:59,422
as a way to finally get their
share of the American dream.
650
00:39:59,713 --> 00:40:02,505
And on the other hand the
income inequality produced
651
00:40:02,588 --> 00:40:05,713
a ready supply of capital at
the top to be invested as well
652
00:40:05,755 --> 00:40:08,088
in these kinds of mortgages
653
00:40:08,130 --> 00:40:10,880
so while the top was
not willing to pay
654
00:40:10,922 --> 00:40:13,963
the bottom wages, they were
willing to lend them money.
655
00:40:23,547 --> 00:40:28,505
In a typical city or town, on
a typical residential street,
656
00:40:29,005 --> 00:40:33,172
we find a typical home occupied
by a typical America family.
657
00:40:35,422 --> 00:40:37,463
Like millions of his
fellow Americans,
658
00:40:37,505 --> 00:40:39,630
John Q Public earns
enough money
659
00:40:39,672 --> 00:40:41,838
to keep up the
payments on a new car.
660
00:40:47,338 --> 00:40:49,617
He takes great pride
in owning a fine, new,
661
00:40:49,698 --> 00:40:52,150
long-term mortgaged home, that
was built to last a lifetime.
662
00:40:52,231 --> 00:40:54,606
that was built to
last a lifetime.
663
00:40:57,088 --> 00:40:59,273
The way in which
mortgages have been sold
664
00:40:59,354 --> 00:41:01,208
has changed tremendously
over the 20th century.
665
00:41:01,289 --> 00:41:02,414
Sign right here.
666
00:41:02,881 --> 00:41:04,881
Mmm, mind if I read it first.
667
00:41:05,005 --> 00:41:07,422
In the 1920s, there were a
variety of ways to borrow
668
00:41:07,463 --> 00:41:08,463
for a mortgage.
669
00:41:08,547 --> 00:41:10,713
Things that seem as though
they were just invented
670
00:41:10,755 --> 00:41:12,588
a few years ago were
actually commonplace,
671
00:41:12,630 --> 00:41:13,755
like balloon mortgages,
672
00:41:13,797 --> 00:41:16,130
or interest-only
mortgages for houses.
673
00:41:16,213 --> 00:41:18,005
Thousands of people
get a big thrill
674
00:41:18,047 --> 00:41:19,838
out of looking at model houses,
675
00:41:19,880 --> 00:41:21,755
and a much bigger thrill
when they buy one.
676
00:41:21,838 --> 00:41:23,630
They can be amortised,
or unamortised.
677
00:41:23,672 --> 00:41:25,755
They can be three years.
They can be ten years.
678
00:41:25,880 --> 00:41:28,172
...going to a model house now.
Suppose we follow them.
679
00:41:30,047 --> 00:41:32,922
The husband apparently isn't
very keen about it all,
680
00:41:32,963 --> 00:41:34,755
but you know how wives are.
681
00:41:34,880 --> 00:41:37,213
So they would borrow some
large fraction of the house
682
00:41:37,255 --> 00:41:40,047
and then refinance it
in three to five years.
683
00:41:41,047 --> 00:41:43,255
It's a part of what causes
the mortgage crisis
684
00:41:43,297 --> 00:41:44,630
of the Great Depression
685
00:41:44,672 --> 00:41:47,588
is that suddenly not just
that everyone lost their job,
686
00:41:47,672 --> 00:41:49,755
because a lot of people
obviously lost their job,
687
00:41:51,047 --> 00:41:54,672
but that investors fled the
mortgage investment market.
688
00:41:55,422 --> 00:41:57,047
So in response to this,
689
00:41:57,089 --> 00:41:59,339
the Federal Government
developed the FHA...
690
00:42:03,297 --> 00:42:05,213
...the Federal Housing
Administration.
691
00:42:05,422 --> 00:42:08,588
Do you know how far your pay
will go in buying a house?
692
00:42:08,672 --> 00:42:11,297
It may surprise you to
learn that you can become
693
00:42:11,338 --> 00:42:13,505
a home-owner even
on a small salary
694
00:42:13,547 --> 00:42:15,422
with a National Housing
Act insured mortgage.
695
00:42:15,463 --> 00:42:18,338
The FHA standardised the
criteria for a good mortgage,
696
00:42:18,380 --> 00:42:20,838
by banking its standard it
made it into a commodity
697
00:42:20,880 --> 00:42:23,505
that could be resold
anywhere in America.
698
00:42:23,588 --> 00:42:26,338
It enabled investors in New
York to be able to invest
699
00:42:26,380 --> 00:42:27,922
in Texas or California.
700
00:42:27,963 --> 00:42:31,213
Home ownership is the basis of a
happy, contented family life.
701
00:42:31,755 --> 00:42:33,213
And now, through the use of
702
00:42:33,255 --> 00:42:34,963
a National Housing Act
insured mortgage,
703
00:42:35,005 --> 00:42:37,172
is brought within the
reach of all citizens
704
00:42:37,213 --> 00:42:38,505
on a monthly payment...
705
00:42:38,547 --> 00:42:41,465
The FHA underwriters' manual
had very explicit criteria
706
00:42:41,505 --> 00:42:44,130
for what made for a
good investment.
707
00:42:44,213 --> 00:42:46,213
So 20 percent, for instance,
708
00:42:46,216 --> 00:42:48,174
of whether a mortgage
should be approved or not
709
00:42:48,255 --> 00:42:50,505
depended on whether or
not there was class
710
00:42:50,547 --> 00:42:52,463
and race mixing in
a neighbourhood.
711
00:42:52,463 --> 00:42:55,047
And so if there were
restrictive deeds
712
00:42:55,088 --> 00:42:58,005
to keep out Jews, Asians
and, most importantly,
713
00:42:58,047 --> 00:43:00,963
African-Americans, it was
considered a good investment.
714
00:43:03,851 --> 00:43:06,880
Under these roofs Americans
can live as Americans should.
715
00:43:06,922 --> 00:43:09,297
These pleasant, helpful
surroundings provide
716
00:43:09,338 --> 00:43:11,546
the background that young
Americans need and deserve.
717
00:43:11,627 --> 00:43:13,422
Through this policy there
was the co-creation
718
00:43:13,505 --> 00:43:15,755
of both the ghetto
and the suburb,
719
00:43:15,797 --> 00:43:19,547
and the consequence was that
mortgage capital flooded
720
00:43:19,588 --> 00:43:23,797
from basically New York City
into suburbs around the country.
721
00:43:24,005 --> 00:43:27,255
It made it very difficult for
people who lived in the city,
722
00:43:27,255 --> 00:43:30,297
particularly areas that were
multiracial or multi-ethnic,
723
00:43:30,338 --> 00:43:31,755
to get mortgage loans.
724
00:43:31,797 --> 00:43:34,172
And over time, over
30 / 40 years,
725
00:43:34,172 --> 00:43:37,713
those kinds of markets and
the housing deteriorated...
726
00:43:40,461 --> 00:43:45,294
and it helped bring about what
we see as the urban crisis.
727
00:43:51,419 --> 00:43:55,961
MUSIC
728
00:44:16,679 --> 00:44:21,265
This is Bedford-Stuyvesant in
Brooklyn in New York City.
729
00:44:22,272 --> 00:44:25,872
There are something like
2.3 / 2.4 million people
730
00:44:25,953 --> 00:44:28,036
living just in Brooklyn alone.
731
00:44:30,523 --> 00:44:32,445
This is a very
vibrant community.
732
00:44:32,625 --> 00:44:35,133
There is a lot of
immigrants who live here
733
00:44:35,532 --> 00:44:38,866
and a lot of old time New
Yorkers, Brooklynites,
734
00:44:38,947 --> 00:44:41,078
families that have lived here
through the generations.
735
00:44:45,947 --> 00:44:50,991
The work that I do, I started
doing it in the early 1990s
736
00:44:51,072 --> 00:44:55,405
and the work was
about getting access
737
00:44:55,488 --> 00:44:57,905
to loans in neighbourhoods
738
00:44:57,947 --> 00:45:01,239
that had been historically
redlined, which means
739
00:45:01,280 --> 00:45:04,905
they were cut off from
access to banking services.
740
00:45:04,988 --> 00:45:07,197
Bank branches either
weren't there
741
00:45:07,238 --> 00:45:08,828
or long abandoned
the community.
742
00:45:10,613 --> 00:45:13,155
So we were working with
community groups to try
743
00:45:13,197 --> 00:45:15,655
to get banks to make
loans in neighbourhoods
744
00:45:15,697 --> 00:45:18,655
that had been cut off
from financial services.
745
00:45:19,697 --> 00:45:22,036
By the mid 1990s, the picture
746
00:45:22,117 --> 00:45:24,113
was just changing
right in front of us,
747
00:45:24,155 --> 00:45:27,363
because these same
neighbourhoods were suddenly
748
00:45:27,405 --> 00:45:28,738
flooded with credit.
749
00:45:32,780 --> 00:45:36,780
Consumer finance companies and
other lenders had realised
750
00:45:36,822 --> 00:45:39,155
that there was a lot
of money to be made
751
00:45:39,197 --> 00:45:43,238
by making mortgages in
neighbourhoods that had been
752
00:45:43,280 --> 00:45:46,072
cut off from
mainstream banking.
753
00:45:49,113 --> 00:45:53,363
So much money was being made
during the eighties and nineties
754
00:45:53,488 --> 00:45:56,155
that investors had
to put it somewhere.
755
00:45:56,197 --> 00:45:58,780
And not just money being
made in the United States,
756
00:45:58,822 --> 00:46:00,086
but all over the world.
757
00:46:00,167 --> 00:46:04,078
I mean, with oil you know,
with the rise of China,
758
00:46:04,159 --> 00:46:06,655
there's a lot of money that's
sloshing around the world.
759
00:46:06,697 --> 00:46:10,030
Capitalism works. And it's
because capitalism works
760
00:46:10,072 --> 00:46:12,697
that there's more money to
invest than ever before,
761
00:46:13,822 --> 00:46:17,530
so people began to invest
a lot in mortgages.
762
00:46:20,088 --> 00:46:24,673
MUSIC
763
00:46:38,238 --> 00:46:41,238
Dynamic Credit's a specialist
investment manager.
764
00:46:41,319 --> 00:46:45,361
We manage portfolios
of financial products
765
00:46:45,744 --> 00:46:47,337
called mortgage securities.
766
00:46:48,893 --> 00:46:51,986
It really began in
the late 1980s.
767
00:46:53,181 --> 00:46:56,199
Banks, who made mortgage loans,
didn't wanna sit and hold
768
00:46:56,280 --> 00:46:58,282
those mortgage loans
for their full term.
769
00:46:58,363 --> 00:47:01,113
But they were ten year,
15 year or 30-year loans,
770
00:47:01,194 --> 00:47:03,279
they were clogging up the
capacity of the bank.
771
00:47:03,323 --> 00:47:04,993
You'd lend out the money
and it would take
772
00:47:05,074 --> 00:47:06,365
all that time to
get it back in.
773
00:47:06,446 --> 00:47:08,376
You're far better off
originating the mortgage
774
00:47:08,457 --> 00:47:09,525
and selling it off.
775
00:47:10,573 --> 00:47:13,698
The origins of secularisation
were to take those mortgages
776
00:47:13,738 --> 00:47:16,907
on a pooled basis and
form CDOs out of them,
777
00:47:17,220 --> 00:47:18,798
Collatorised Debt Obligations.
778
00:47:19,780 --> 00:47:22,907
CDO is that kind of
conglomeration of
779
00:47:22,988 --> 00:47:26,072
mortgage backed securities
that can be sold
780
00:47:26,113 --> 00:47:27,905
into the capital markets.
781
00:47:31,197 --> 00:47:34,947
Have you guys heard about
toxic asset, yeah?
782
00:47:35,030 --> 00:47:38,572
I'm gonna show you guys what
a toxic asset looks like.
783
00:47:38,655 --> 00:47:42,861
I'm gonna let you guys touch
and feel this toxic asset.
784
00:47:43,657 --> 00:47:48,157
Be careful when you handle this
because it's toxic, right?
785
00:47:48,238 --> 00:47:55,389
So this is a first page
of a legal document
786
00:47:55,470 --> 00:47:58,532
of a CDO - Collaterised
Debt Obligation.
787
00:47:58,626 --> 00:48:01,738
And the actual document
itself is an inch thick.
788
00:48:01,780 --> 00:48:04,863
What it does it tells
you how the CDO works.
789
00:48:05,030 --> 00:48:08,186
You basically take a
pool of any regular
790
00:48:08,267 --> 00:48:11,467
cash-producing instruments,
like a mortgage, credit card,
791
00:48:11,548 --> 00:48:14,990
corporate loans, you pull it
together, you tronch it up,
792
00:48:15,030 --> 00:48:18,072
layer it and risk,
different risk layers,
793
00:48:18,197 --> 00:48:21,738
and then you sell that to
investors around the world. OK?
794
00:48:21,780 --> 00:48:23,822
That's essentially what a
CDO is. It's sort of like
795
00:48:23,863 --> 00:48:26,822
a Frankenstein sort of
security, that's what it is.
796
00:48:33,905 --> 00:48:36,322
There are a lot of
attractions to doing CDOs
797
00:48:36,363 --> 00:48:38,280
on the money management side,
798
00:48:38,322 --> 00:48:41,030
you get paid anywhere from one
tenth of one percent per annum
799
00:48:41,072 --> 00:48:43,933
on multiple billions of
dollars, which could mean
800
00:48:44,014 --> 00:48:45,831
a couple of million
dollars a year fees,
801
00:48:45,912 --> 00:48:48,925
to a half a percent per annum
on a couple of hundred million
802
00:48:49,006 --> 00:48:50,599
perhaps corporate
credit portfolio,
803
00:48:50,680 --> 00:48:53,164
which again could mean a couple
of million dollars a year fees.
804
00:48:53,245 --> 00:48:55,933
And the best part of that
was, most of the work
805
00:48:56,014 --> 00:48:58,472
went into selecting a
portfolio on day one,
806
00:48:58,553 --> 00:49:00,470
then you were paid
over years of time for
807
00:49:00,740 --> 00:49:02,803
I'd say doing a little bit
more than babysitting.
808
00:49:04,824 --> 00:49:06,574
Ow!
809
00:49:07,014 --> 00:49:11,513
I would start with a nice clean
portfolio of triple A, double A
810
00:49:11,555 --> 00:49:15,513
and perhaps some single A
mortgage backed securities,
811
00:49:16,180 --> 00:49:19,305
but I'd have to add something
else, what we all juice.
812
00:49:21,180 --> 00:49:24,805
It's an extra element of risk
which would pay a higher yield.
813
00:49:32,055 --> 00:49:35,180
At the time, there was a lot
of talk about Liars Loans.
814
00:49:35,472 --> 00:49:38,138
The kind of loan
that Patty and I got
815
00:49:38,180 --> 00:49:41,430
was one step further down
on the credibility ladder
816
00:49:41,472 --> 00:49:43,490
which was called
a no-ratio loan,
817
00:49:43,638 --> 00:49:46,055
in which I literally
didn't disclose my income.
818
00:49:51,458 --> 00:49:56,208
The house cost 460,000
dollars which, even to me,
819
00:49:56,289 --> 00:49:59,622
was at that time an
astounding amount of money.
820
00:50:00,430 --> 00:50:04,513
The problem that I had was
huge child support payments
821
00:50:04,680 --> 00:50:08,388
to my ex-wife, as
well as alimony,
822
00:50:08,472 --> 00:50:10,972
so I was paying out about
4,000 dollars a month,
823
00:50:11,305 --> 00:50:14,222
which is well over half
of my take-home pay,
824
00:50:14,263 --> 00:50:16,555
well over half of
my take-home pay.
825
00:50:16,722 --> 00:50:18,263
Mmm, that's disappointing.
826
00:50:18,305 --> 00:50:21,597
Oh, not necessarily, let
that be our problem
827
00:50:21,972 --> 00:50:24,490
Borrowing the money, even
under my circumstances,
828
00:50:24,571 --> 00:50:26,016
was the easiest
thing in the world.
829
00:50:26,545 --> 00:50:28,537
The only thing the lender knew,
830
00:50:28,618 --> 00:50:30,535
the only thing that
they wanted to know,
831
00:50:30,616 --> 00:50:33,991
was that I had a credit
rating of over 700m,
832
00:50:34,888 --> 00:50:37,972
that the house had been
appraised and, you know,
833
00:50:38,043 --> 00:50:43,085
was worth what the purchase
pirce was, and that I had a job.
834
00:50:43,180 --> 00:50:45,180
They did confirm I had a job,
835
00:50:45,263 --> 00:50:47,600
but they didn't try to confirm
what the income would be.
836
00:50:47,681 --> 00:50:50,473
Well, what are we waiting for?
837
00:50:50,964 --> 00:50:53,089
For me it wasn't a tall
a financial investment.
838
00:50:53,170 --> 00:50:55,623
I had no expectation
that I was gonna make
839
00:50:55,704 --> 00:50:57,913
make a bundle of money on the
rising value of the house.
840
00:50:58,060 --> 00:51:00,519
It's a hormonal thing.
841
00:51:01,638 --> 00:51:05,263
It's a cornerstone to keeping
your family together.
842
00:51:06,388 --> 00:51:09,805
It's a ticket to, you know,
continued membership
843
00:51:09,886 --> 00:51:11,303
in the middle class.
844
00:51:11,638 --> 00:51:13,638
You know here I had been
through this pseudo
845
00:51:13,763 --> 00:51:16,233
kind of traumatic,
dramatic, you know,
846
00:51:16,314 --> 00:51:19,807
divorce and remarriage,
this was normalcy again.
847
00:51:19,888 --> 00:51:21,930
I could still be a normal guy.
848
00:51:23,108 --> 00:51:27,178
MUSIC
849
00:51:32,430 --> 00:51:35,013
I used to have my
own optical store.
850
00:51:35,222 --> 00:51:38,608
I needed financial help,
so I went to the bank.
851
00:51:38,689 --> 00:51:41,356
And I found that each
time I was talking
852
00:51:41,472 --> 00:51:44,138
to some financial people,
they was asking me
853
00:51:44,219 --> 00:51:46,094
if I have a house.
854
00:51:46,222 --> 00:51:49,013
And they did explain to me
that if I have a house,
855
00:51:49,097 --> 00:51:51,555
it would be like a collateral.
856
00:51:51,763 --> 00:51:55,472
So after I close my business,
I told me my new adventure
857
00:51:55,555 --> 00:51:57,555
would be to get myself a house.
858
00:51:57,597 --> 00:52:00,347
And then from a house I can
get myself another business.
859
00:52:02,222 --> 00:52:04,930
So we came here and
I liked the house.
860
00:52:05,464 --> 00:52:10,881
He told me the house
was 679,000 dollars.
861
00:52:11,561 --> 00:52:15,295
679,000 dollars!
862
00:52:16,388 --> 00:52:19,472
I tried to get some
older real estate,
863
00:52:19,597 --> 00:52:23,013
but in this neighbourhood the
price is about the same.
864
00:52:23,263 --> 00:52:26,847
But he told me, you know what,
it's a two family house too.
865
00:52:26,888 --> 00:52:30,847
You can render all the part
and you can do the basement.
866
00:52:32,138 --> 00:52:37,388
They tell me you're going to pay
about 4,000 dollars a month.
867
00:52:37,555 --> 00:52:40,555
I said, "Listen, 4,000
is very expensive."
868
00:52:40,597 --> 00:52:42,555
They told me don't
worry about it,
869
00:52:42,597 --> 00:52:44,597
after a year you can refinance.
870
00:52:44,638 --> 00:52:48,430
When you refinance you can
get the mortgage go lower.
871
00:52:48,555 --> 00:52:51,888
So don't worry, going for
me just for one year.
872
00:52:59,264 --> 00:53:03,930
So we're gonna just do
some quick announcements
873
00:53:04,011 --> 00:53:05,779
and then turn it
over to Herman.
874
00:53:06,138 --> 00:53:08,516
We've gotten quite a
number of folks calling us
875
00:53:08,597 --> 00:53:10,472
for foreclosure assistance.
876
00:53:10,513 --> 00:53:12,972
I don't know if you wanna
highlight what's been going on?
877
00:53:13,013 --> 00:53:14,555
We got four last week.
878
00:53:14,597 --> 00:53:16,990
I mean there just a bunch of
home-owners who are in loans
879
00:53:17,071 --> 00:53:18,592
that were much too
expensive for them.
880
00:53:18,673 --> 00:53:20,889
The majority of the loans
that were generated
881
00:53:20,970 --> 00:53:22,810
and then sold to Wall
Street to be securitised
882
00:53:22,891 --> 00:53:24,021
were refinanced loans.
883
00:53:24,102 --> 00:53:26,490
They weren't adding
to home ownership,
884
00:53:26,571 --> 00:53:27,943
they were taking
away and they were
885
00:53:28,024 --> 00:53:30,563
deteriorating home-ownership.
886
00:53:30,644 --> 00:53:32,251
Right, I was just gonna
say, according to
887
00:53:32,332 --> 00:53:34,832
the Federal Reserve it's
something like 77 percent
888
00:53:34,913 --> 00:53:36,243
of the sub-prime loans made
889
00:53:36,324 --> 00:53:38,422
were refinancing loans,
so they were loans
890
00:53:38,503 --> 00:53:41,071
made to people who also, to
add to what Josh was saying
891
00:53:41,152 --> 00:53:43,461
had built up a lot of equity
in their home, so they have
892
00:53:43,542 --> 00:53:45,352
a lot of wealth that
they'd build up.
893
00:53:45,847 --> 00:53:50,126
And there were lenders and
brokers and contractors
894
00:53:50,207 --> 00:53:54,367
who were all working together to
try and get people in the loans
895
00:53:54,448 --> 00:53:56,540
without any regard to whether
they were affordable,
896
00:53:56,621 --> 00:53:58,992
because they knew that they
could turn around and sell them
897
00:53:59,073 --> 00:54:02,415
the next day to Wall Street
investment banks at a premium
898
00:54:02,496 --> 00:54:03,633
and make a profit.
899
00:54:03,714 --> 00:54:05,908
And they knew that they could
charge high fees upfront.
900
00:54:05,989 --> 00:54:09,118
Every time the loan is
refinanced, the borrower,
901
00:54:09,199 --> 00:54:11,907
and this is what the incentive
is for the broker and the lender
902
00:54:11,988 --> 00:54:13,751
to keep flipping
the loans, is that
903
00:54:13,832 --> 00:54:16,516
they're charging more
upfront points and fees.
904
00:54:16,597 --> 00:54:19,223
And what that does is it
strips out the equity
905
00:54:19,304 --> 00:54:20,971
each time more and more.
906
00:54:21,052 --> 00:54:23,659
If you look at the deed
records for neighbourhoods,
907
00:54:23,740 --> 00:54:26,047
particularly neighbourhoods
of colour in New York City
908
00:54:26,128 --> 00:54:27,860
where there's a high
rate of home ownership,
909
00:54:28,089 --> 00:54:31,026
you'll see so many homes
where people were refinanced
910
00:54:31,107 --> 00:54:34,618
over and over and over
several times in one year
911
00:54:34,699 --> 00:54:37,344
sometimes until their equity is
gone and they lose the house.
912
00:54:40,035 --> 00:54:42,376
MUSIC
913
00:54:45,940 --> 00:54:49,611
The banks were interested in
maximising transaction cost.
914
00:54:49,977 --> 00:54:51,846
One could understand,
that's capitalism,
915
00:54:51,927 --> 00:54:55,275
that maximise their
profits, but...
916
00:54:56,189 --> 00:54:59,564
they were doing it at the
expense of the poorest Americans
917
00:55:00,678 --> 00:55:02,510
There were attempts
to try to stop this.
918
00:55:02,591 --> 00:55:04,861
It was clear that it was
predatorial lending,
919
00:55:06,177 --> 00:55:08,158
but they fought back.
920
00:55:09,955 --> 00:55:13,747
They stopped the legislation
that was moving forward
921
00:55:13,789 --> 00:55:15,872
to stop the predatory lending.
922
00:55:17,768 --> 00:55:21,788
I've seen this. I've seen the
kind of lending patterns.
923
00:55:21,869 --> 00:55:24,300
I've seen what they've done
to some of these poor people.
924
00:55:24,363 --> 00:55:28,057
And let me tell you,
it is outrageous.
925
00:55:28,784 --> 00:55:29,650
AMBIENT SOUND
926
00:55:32,529 --> 00:55:37,834
If you are asking me who do I
blame for my own mortgage wows,
927
00:55:37,960 --> 00:55:41,584
I will tell you absolutely
certainly I blame myself.
928
00:55:41,630 --> 00:55:43,627
and I don't put the
blame on anybody else
929
00:55:43,752 --> 00:55:47,234
I knew exactly what
I was getting into,
930
00:55:47,315 --> 00:55:52,315
and I knew better actually
than most other borrowers.
931
00:55:54,873 --> 00:55:57,340
We began to struggle
very quickly.
932
00:55:57,412 --> 00:56:00,396
We ran through what
little extra cash cushion
933
00:56:00,436 --> 00:56:02,341
I had left in my savings,
934
00:56:02,701 --> 00:56:04,927
then we were borrowing
935
00:56:05,772 --> 00:56:06,813
I hate this.
936
00:56:07,114 --> 00:56:09,150
And we were borrowing
more than we realised
937
00:56:09,231 --> 00:56:11,847
through our credit cards
to keep ourselves afloat.
938
00:56:12,369 --> 00:56:15,415
But, you know, sometimes
these things work.
939
00:56:16,179 --> 00:56:21,560
We were borrowing on average an
extra 2,000 dollars a month.
940
00:56:21,672 --> 00:56:23,327
But where would this go then?
941
00:56:23,408 --> 00:56:26,370
The staggering amount of
money and the interest rates
942
00:56:26,451 --> 00:56:28,575
on that money were
just through the roof.
943
00:56:28,656 --> 00:56:32,747
And I was trying to figure
out what in God's name to do
944
00:56:32,815 --> 00:56:37,057
and that's when I called my
friendly mortgage broker
945
00:56:37,102 --> 00:56:40,104
and started wailing
about my problems.
946
00:56:40,386 --> 00:56:44,482
(phone ringing) Oh, excuse me.
Chandler speaking.
947
00:56:44,737 --> 00:56:47,937
He said, look, I'll
figure a way out of this,
948
00:56:47,988 --> 00:56:49,255
and indeed he did.
949
00:56:49,401 --> 00:56:51,485
Oh, oh, put him on.
950
00:56:51,726 --> 00:56:54,859
The value of the house had
gone up about 10 percent
951
00:56:54,940 --> 00:56:56,340
over those two years.
952
00:56:56,776 --> 00:56:57,651
Yes, sir.
953
00:56:57,839 --> 00:57:00,906
And we ended up boosting the
amount we had borrowed,
954
00:57:00,987 --> 00:57:02,302
another 50,000 dollars.
955
00:57:02,476 --> 00:57:03,768
I thought you would.
956
00:57:03,849 --> 00:57:07,763
The theory of the whole
manoeuvre was if I...
957
00:57:08,209 --> 00:57:13,793
borrow more against the house,
and pay off my credit cards,
958
00:57:14,014 --> 00:57:16,544
my credit scores
automatically go up.
959
00:57:16,625 --> 00:57:19,599
Even though the total volume
of debt is exactly as high,
960
00:57:19,680 --> 00:57:21,724
maybe a little higher,
than it was before.
961
00:57:22,271 --> 00:57:25,317
And because I've got those
higher credit scores,
962
00:57:25,398 --> 00:57:27,763
now I can get a
slightly cheaper loan.
963
00:57:28,456 --> 00:57:30,915
Go figure! It makes
no sense at all.
964
00:57:30,997 --> 00:57:36,111
You have to be pulling the wool
over your eyes aggressively
965
00:57:36,192 --> 00:57:37,401
to believe this kind of stuff.
966
00:57:37,622 --> 00:57:39,831
Now we are beginning
to see something of
967
00:57:39,873 --> 00:57:41,513
what a mortgage
banker really does.
968
00:57:41,594 --> 00:57:45,041
A full and active life he leads,
much of it behind the scenes,
969
00:57:45,122 --> 00:57:46,958
or the betterment
of the community.
970
00:57:47,507 --> 00:57:50,632
The reason why the
money, this capital,
971
00:57:50,654 --> 00:57:52,724
gets allocated
into consumer debt
972
00:57:52,805 --> 00:57:55,615
and gets allocated into
mortgage debt, is because
973
00:57:55,640 --> 00:57:59,319
it has a better return than
investing it in businesses,
974
00:57:59,351 --> 00:58:02,616
than investing it in factories
or things that make things.
975
00:58:02,804 --> 00:58:05,671
And it's the simple
banal calculation
976
00:58:05,744 --> 00:58:07,351
that's behind all of this,
977
00:58:07,398 --> 00:58:10,226
it's not some greedy
Wall Street banker.
978
00:58:10,281 --> 00:58:12,983
and all capitalists,
are always greedy,
979
00:58:13,038 --> 00:58:14,882
that's the basis of
our entire system.
980
00:58:14,914 --> 00:58:17,706
It's that the opportunities
for investment
981
00:58:17,953 --> 00:58:20,132
are different than
they used to be.
982
00:58:21,091 --> 00:58:23,437
And that a dollar put into
credit card debt, or into
983
00:58:23,475 --> 00:58:26,023
mortgage debt, makes
you more than a dollar
984
00:58:26,044 --> 00:58:27,378
put into a factory.
985
00:58:31,258 --> 00:58:37,093
MUSIC
986
00:58:50,831 --> 00:58:52,739
Most of the buildings
around here had sprung up
987
00:58:52,820 --> 00:58:54,582
within the last five years.
988
00:58:55,231 --> 00:58:57,724
I think this building over
here, they're still building,
989
00:58:57,912 --> 00:59:01,058
even though there's close to
20,000 units that are either
990
00:59:01,139 --> 00:59:02,849
available or are
gonna be available
991
00:59:02,930 --> 00:59:04,954
in a very short period of time.
992
00:59:06,668 --> 00:59:09,644
And this one just sprung up
not too long ago as well.
993
00:59:10,842 --> 00:59:12,842
I think there is 400 units
994
00:59:12,914 --> 00:59:14,914
and there's 50 people
in it right now,
995
00:59:14,968 --> 00:59:16,927
so it makes for a
lonely existence.
996
00:59:17,943 --> 00:59:20,143
In some buildings
they're empty.
997
00:59:21,139 --> 00:59:23,959
But what happens is that
these banks, you know,
998
00:59:24,009 --> 00:59:26,365
they get the financing to
build these buildings and,
999
00:59:26,404 --> 00:59:28,560
you know, they have
to keep building.
1000
00:59:36,865 --> 00:59:39,146
Started the mortgage
business in 2001
1001
00:59:39,170 --> 00:59:42,103
and started in Miami,
and started working
1002
00:59:42,122 --> 00:59:44,789
for this company
Ameriquest Mortgage.
1003
00:59:45,436 --> 00:59:47,850
Last year as a branch
manager I made
1004
00:59:48,037 --> 00:59:49,529
little under1 million dollars,
1005
00:59:49,834 --> 00:59:52,567
nine hundred and 30
something thousand.
1006
00:59:53,522 --> 00:59:56,788
And most of the work that
I did was refinance.
1007
00:59:57,636 --> 01:00:00,104
Sixty percent of it was
for debt consolidation
1008
01:00:00,147 --> 01:00:02,396
and the other 30-40
percent was cash out.
1009
01:00:08,084 --> 01:00:10,701
We felt like we were
helping people, you know.
1010
01:00:10,774 --> 01:00:13,406
We'd walk into our office
and there was baskets
1011
01:00:13,451 --> 01:00:16,318
of flowers and fruit from
people that we refinanced
1012
01:00:16,372 --> 01:00:19,248
that weren't able to refinance
and, you know, we got 'em a loan
1013
01:00:19,329 --> 01:00:21,888
and now they were saving 400
or 500 dollars a month,
1014
01:00:21,920 --> 01:00:24,701
or you know we pulled their
house out of foreclosure.
1015
01:00:24,764 --> 01:00:26,897
There was a lot of that we did,
1016
01:00:26,936 --> 01:00:29,869
so how could that not
make you feel good?
1017
01:00:31,553 --> 01:00:35,019
At the time it seemed like
win, win for everybody.
1018
01:00:37,667 --> 01:00:41,585
It's wonderful, it turns out,
that while incomes are falling
1019
01:00:44,626 --> 01:00:46,377
...house prices were rising.
1020
01:00:49,975 --> 01:00:53,763
As the housing assets grew, and
their wages remained stagnant,
1021
01:00:53,876 --> 01:00:56,460
people would borrow
money from their houses
1022
01:00:56,500 --> 01:00:58,959
to make up the gap
in their wages.
1023
01:01:02,209 --> 01:01:05,459
This fall in the share of
the bottom 90 per cent
1024
01:01:05,500 --> 01:01:09,875
represents a transfer upwards
1025
01:01:11,251 --> 01:01:14,918
of roughly one and a half
trillion dollars each year
1026
01:01:15,126 --> 01:01:17,543
to the top 1 per cent.
1027
01:01:20,834 --> 01:01:23,084
This enormous upward
redistribution
1028
01:01:23,084 --> 01:01:24,418
of American income
1029
01:01:25,335 --> 01:01:28,211
took place in a
stable democracy
1030
01:01:29,959 --> 01:01:32,501
with governments that
were promoting this
1031
01:01:32,542 --> 01:01:36,667
upwards redistribution being
re-elected time and time again.
1032
01:01:39,792 --> 01:01:42,084
It's a very interesting
question of how
1033
01:01:42,126 --> 01:01:45,793
how was the American elite
able to get away with it.
1034
01:01:50,626 --> 01:01:53,001
When we were doing refinancing,
it was very common
1035
01:01:53,043 --> 01:01:55,126
to see people with 20,000
and 30,000 dollars
1036
01:01:55,168 --> 01:01:56,644
worth of credit card debt.
1037
01:01:56,709 --> 01:01:57,668
Holy smokes!
1038
01:02:01,001 --> 01:02:03,376
We've masked a lack
of income growth
1039
01:02:03,459 --> 01:02:06,043
by the fact that people
have been supporting
1040
01:02:06,084 --> 01:02:08,543
their living standards
with more debt.
1041
01:02:10,459 --> 01:02:12,960
So what they were
doing is they now had
1042
01:02:13,001 --> 01:02:15,335
all this equity in
the properties,
1043
01:02:15,417 --> 01:02:19,084
so a lot of people refinanced
to get rid of that debt,
1044
01:02:19,126 --> 01:02:20,710
to consolidate the debt.
1045
01:02:20,792 --> 01:02:25,167
We had, in one year alone,
over 900 billion dollars
1046
01:02:25,251 --> 01:02:27,918
in what are called mortgage
equity withdrawal,
1047
01:02:27,959 --> 01:02:30,751
much of that money going
into consumption.
1048
01:02:32,293 --> 01:02:36,127
So you have roughly one and a
half trillion a year going up
1049
01:02:37,209 --> 01:02:41,501
and roughly one trillion
a year coming down
1050
01:02:41,584 --> 01:02:45,418
in the form of house
equity refinancing.
1051
01:02:46,876 --> 01:02:51,543
If the American population
had been receiving something
1052
01:02:51,626 --> 01:02:55,876
like the same income share
as in the 1950s and 60s,
1053
01:02:56,043 --> 01:02:58,502
then they would have
been able to increase
1054
01:02:58,542 --> 01:03:00,709
their consumption in
a sustainable way
1055
01:03:00,751 --> 01:03:03,918
out of rising income, but
that's not what happened.
1056
01:03:07,001 --> 01:03:09,793
The fatal flaw was
the assumption
1057
01:03:09,834 --> 01:03:12,585
that real estate values
would always go up,
1058
01:03:12,626 --> 01:03:15,876
and I think even a fourth grader
would be able to tell you
1059
01:03:15,918 --> 01:03:17,210
that's impossible.
1060
01:03:17,251 --> 01:03:20,002
It can't happen. That's contrary
to the laws of physics.
1061
01:03:20,043 --> 01:03:21,460
It's contrary to history,
1062
01:03:21,500 --> 01:03:24,418
and yet somehow everyone
literally bought into that.
1063
01:03:33,417 --> 01:03:35,667
The problem started
after a year.
1064
01:03:35,709 --> 01:03:38,168
"No, you cannot refinance
1065
01:03:38,251 --> 01:03:41,251
because the value of
the house went down."
1066
01:03:41,792 --> 01:03:44,710
Then I hear some bell, panic.
1067
01:03:45,043 --> 01:03:47,043
And she told me,
"You know what?
1068
01:03:47,084 --> 01:03:50,251
You can do a loan
modification, OK?"
1069
01:03:50,417 --> 01:03:53,209
I say, "OK, fine. If I can
do a loan modification,
1070
01:03:53,251 --> 01:03:55,169
what is a loan modification?"
1071
01:03:55,209 --> 01:03:58,251
"That where we going to go
over your loan and lower
1072
01:03:58,293 --> 01:04:02,211
your end choice, and give you
something that you can afford."
1073
01:04:02,293 --> 01:04:03,877
I said, "OK perfect."
1074
01:04:03,959 --> 01:04:05,793
When they answered
me back they told me
1075
01:04:05,834 --> 01:04:08,459
that my loan
modification was denied.
1076
01:04:08,542 --> 01:04:11,917
I say, "Why?" They say, "because
you've been paying your mortgage
1077
01:04:11,959 --> 01:04:13,126
on time.
1078
01:04:13,376 --> 01:04:17,793
You have never been late, so it
means that you have no hardship.
1079
01:04:18,293 --> 01:04:21,543
Don't pay your mortgage. Don't
pay for two or three month
1080
01:04:21,584 --> 01:04:24,001
and then you apply for
other colleague to do
1081
01:04:24,043 --> 01:04:26,794
loan modification and then
we will be able to give you
1082
01:04:26,834 --> 01:04:28,251
the loan modification.
1083
01:04:28,293 --> 01:04:29,211
I said, "OK, fine."
1084
01:04:29,626 --> 01:04:33,377
So I take three month
I didn't pay, and
1085
01:04:33,542 --> 01:04:36,209
I filled out the paperwork
again. And guess what?
1086
01:04:36,834 --> 01:04:37,834
They deny.
1087
01:04:41,376 --> 01:04:46,793
MUSIC
1088
01:04:53,584 --> 01:04:59,001
Tampa, St Peterbsurg, New
Orleans, Kenner, Mansfield,
1089
01:04:59,084 --> 01:05:02,876
Ohio, Phoenix, Messer,
Scottsdale, San José, Sunnyvale,
1090
01:05:05,709 --> 01:05:09,918
Fresno, Columbus, Ohio,
Poughkeepsie, New York,
1091
01:05:11,293 --> 01:05:19,960
Michigan city, Port, Indiana,
New York, New Jersey,
1092
01:05:20,001 --> 01:05:22,835
San Francisco, Tampa, St
Petersburg, Portland, Vancouver,
1093
01:05:22,918 --> 01:05:27,918
Dallas, Fort Worth, Arlington,
Tampa, Los Angeles,
1094
01:05:28,001 --> 01:05:34,668
Long Beach, Riverside, New
York, Cleveland, Boise City,
1095
01:05:34,959 --> 01:05:37,126
San Diego, Carlsbad.
1096
01:05:37,417 --> 01:05:41,542
Each one of these is a
mortgage that is part of
1097
01:05:41,584 --> 01:05:44,876
a particular pool for which
we have an exposure to,
1098
01:05:44,918 --> 01:05:48,293
or in this particular case,
we've done an analysis for.
1099
01:05:49,459 --> 01:05:52,335
We're looking history of a
borrower. And so what you see
1100
01:05:52,376 --> 01:05:55,043
see is this delinquency
history for 12 periods.
1101
01:05:55,122 --> 01:05:58,789
And so there's C for current.
There's three for 30 days.
1102
01:05:58,789 --> 01:06:02,028
There's six for 60 days and
then nine is for 90 days
1103
01:06:02,056 --> 01:06:03,390
or more delinquent.
1104
01:06:03,456 --> 01:06:06,456
Then you've got FC which
means the process
1105
01:06:06,547 --> 01:06:08,422
of foreclosure has
been started.
1106
01:06:08,497 --> 01:06:10,497
And then you have
REO which means
1107
01:06:10,536 --> 01:06:13,336
the process of foreclosure
was completed
1108
01:06:13,456 --> 01:06:16,957
So C's good, you wanna
see long lists of C.
1109
01:06:17,020 --> 01:06:19,521
You wanna see everybody
that looks like that.
1110
01:06:19,716 --> 01:06:22,590
Where it gets bad is when you
look at situations like this
1111
01:06:22,864 --> 01:06:25,131
where you went foreclosure, REO
1112
01:06:25,204 --> 01:06:29,038
and then the bank finally
discharged to the home,
1113
01:06:29,069 --> 01:06:33,200
but they took a 193,000
dollars loss on this home
1114
01:06:37,035 --> 01:06:39,707
And so interesting
things are you looked at
1115
01:06:39,755 --> 01:06:42,457
present status nine, but
they started out current
1116
01:06:42,528 --> 01:06:46,028
and then they went through
five periods of current,
1117
01:06:46,086 --> 01:06:48,543
and then they got
30 days delinquent,
1118
01:06:48,591 --> 01:06:51,591
then they basically
fought back to current.
1119
01:06:52,562 --> 01:06:56,645
It appears that they've
survived some event and then
1120
01:06:56,789 --> 01:06:59,645
they just went down the
slippery slope and this time
1121
01:06:59,683 --> 01:07:01,315
they've turned the corner.
1122
01:07:01,364 --> 01:07:04,465
Once you're 90 days delinquent
it's really tough to get back.
1123
01:07:04,771 --> 01:07:10,332
It's kind of a dark world
because you see it happen
1124
01:07:10,838 --> 01:07:13,422
and it's somebody's life.
1125
01:07:16,099 --> 01:07:21,051
As Americans you've been taught
this is one of your major stores
1126
01:07:21,091 --> 01:07:23,145
of value and a situation where,
1127
01:07:23,200 --> 01:07:25,993
you know, wages are not
rising in America,
1128
01:07:26,052 --> 01:07:28,668
this has been one of the
major methods for people to
1129
01:07:28,706 --> 01:07:32,290
ultimately increase their
income in the middle class,
1130
01:07:32,419 --> 01:07:35,419
is through this house
appreciation factor.
1131
01:07:35,442 --> 01:07:39,395
But now that that's gone,
it's a devastating reality,
1132
01:07:39,470 --> 01:07:43,473
and so you're seeing this
ripple through the economy.
1133
01:07:48,529 --> 01:07:55,571
MUSIC
1134
01:08:07,506 --> 01:08:11,085
It's a myth that people didn't
see this crisis coming.
1135
01:08:11,171 --> 01:08:13,298
There was a lot of
chatter in the industry.
1136
01:08:13,359 --> 01:08:20,199
Well things started to go
wrong in the fall of 2006.
1137
01:08:20,289 --> 01:08:22,414
The so-called 'smart
money' people...
1138
01:08:22,456 --> 01:08:24,430
You know, the definition
of being a 'smart money'
1139
01:08:24,641 --> 01:08:27,038
kind of person or player is
that you know when to get out,
1140
01:08:27,119 --> 01:08:29,106
and so they all thought
they knew when to get out.
1141
01:08:29,205 --> 01:08:33,497
Sophisticated investors would
negotiate for better protection.
1142
01:08:33,584 --> 01:08:36,152
They'd said, well I need more
protection against potential
1143
01:08:36,193 --> 01:08:37,650
potential defaults
in the portfolios,
1144
01:08:37,691 --> 01:08:40,168
so they get an extra 1 percent
protection.
1145
01:08:40,335 --> 01:08:44,002
But 1 per cent extra protection
was like saying to somebody,
1146
01:08:44,069 --> 01:08:47,402
you know, I'm gonna give
you an extra life vest
1147
01:08:47,456 --> 01:08:49,546
to wear on the Titanic.
1148
01:08:51,868 --> 01:08:54,092
My safety valve in my
mind when I did this,
1149
01:08:54,117 --> 01:08:56,202
again no one put a gun to my
head, but I always thought
1150
01:08:56,283 --> 01:08:57,910
if the market starts
to turn, I'll sell.
1151
01:08:57,991 --> 01:09:00,327
You started having borrowers
not paying in the first month,
1152
01:09:00,408 --> 01:09:02,811
the second month or the third
month, and there's wave
1153
01:09:02,892 --> 01:09:04,644
of mortgages coming back
to the originators.
1154
01:09:04,725 --> 01:09:10,842
What triggered it was an abrupt
lowering of ratings on hundreds
1155
01:09:10,898 --> 01:09:13,405
of sub-prime mortgage
back securities.
1156
01:09:13,476 --> 01:09:16,108
And that struck a huge panic
into the whole structural
1157
01:09:16,153 --> 01:09:17,277
products market.
1158
01:09:17,327 --> 01:09:20,702
Investors suddenly knew
that the game was up.
1159
01:09:20,741 --> 01:09:23,741
It wasn't that they were
surprised that the downgrades
1160
01:09:23,804 --> 01:09:25,929
had happened, but
they now knew that
1161
01:09:25,984 --> 01:09:28,921
all of the other securities
couldn't hold up either,
1162
01:09:28,945 --> 01:09:32,487
and knowing that they bailed
out very, very quickly.
1163
01:09:32,530 --> 01:09:35,577
Oh yeah we were
surprised at how fast
1164
01:09:35,616 --> 01:09:38,061
the devastation took place.
1165
01:09:38,140 --> 01:09:41,585
There was no time to sell. Once
there's blood in the water,
1166
01:09:41,628 --> 01:09:45,007
everybody's running and
there was just no way out.
1167
01:09:45,163 --> 01:09:49,780
The crisis came on us rather
fast and it took fast action.
1168
01:09:49,874 --> 01:09:52,413
I think that the
government had to prevent
1169
01:09:52,460 --> 01:09:54,193
a collapse in confidence.
1170
01:10:02,280 --> 01:10:07,241
The whole system was predicated
on there being a complete gap
1171
01:10:07,287 --> 01:10:10,280
between the people on the
ground making the loans
1172
01:10:10,304 --> 01:10:12,928
and the people packaging
them to sell them off,
1173
01:10:13,038 --> 01:10:15,330
you know, through the
secularisation process
1174
01:10:15,379 --> 01:10:16,180
on Wall Street.
1175
01:10:16,261 --> 01:10:18,500
So that you can have people
sitting in their high rise
1176
01:10:18,581 --> 01:10:20,616
building on Wall Street,
or wherever they were,
1177
01:10:20,676 --> 01:10:24,838
in their fancy offices, having
no connection whatsoever,
1178
01:10:24,874 --> 01:10:27,749
and no regard, and not
even in their imagination,
1179
01:10:27,773 --> 01:10:30,303
thinking about what
this commodity was
1180
01:10:30,343 --> 01:10:32,452
that they were bundling
and selling off.
1181
01:10:32,515 --> 01:10:34,225
They were completely severed,
1182
01:10:34,273 --> 01:10:36,678
and that was why this was
able to go for so long.
1183
01:10:36,695 --> 01:10:39,249
Cause one would hope there
would be some people
1184
01:10:39,304 --> 01:10:41,811
within that machinery
that had some conscience,
1185
01:10:41,842 --> 01:10:44,412
and that if they understood
what they were packaging
1186
01:10:44,449 --> 01:10:48,741
was actually translating very
concretely into loans that were,
1187
01:10:48,787 --> 01:10:51,264
let's just be blunt,
ruining people's lives.
1188
01:10:51,312 --> 01:10:54,796
I mean wiping out people's life
savings, stealing their equity,
1189
01:10:54,814 --> 01:10:57,273
making people homeless,
wrecking families.
1190
01:10:57,296 --> 01:11:00,569
I mean the devastation
can't really be overstated
1191
01:11:00,609 --> 01:11:03,234
what it means to sort
of be kind of induced
1192
01:11:03,297 --> 01:11:05,483
into a loan that then
spins out of control
1193
01:11:05,526 --> 01:11:07,335
and leaves you
without your home.
1194
01:11:07,880 --> 01:11:11,233
Do I feel any responsibility?
1195
01:11:24,359 --> 01:11:31,772
I think responsibility is a
difficult feeling for people
1196
01:11:31,827 --> 01:11:37,045
in the sense that most
people's participation,
1197
01:11:37,850 --> 01:11:43,518
other than a select few which
had very, very important jobs
1198
01:11:43,954 --> 01:11:47,977
probably head of the rating
agencies, some chief regulators,
1199
01:11:48,017 --> 01:11:50,017
couple of chief bankers, etc,
1200
01:11:50,304 --> 01:11:52,618
most of the other participants
in the system I think
1201
01:11:52,622 --> 01:11:55,123
kind of felt like hogs in
the wheel of a much larger
1202
01:11:55,205 --> 01:11:56,622
piece of machinery.
1203
01:12:00,102 --> 01:12:02,770
Mr Chairman, I agree with
you in the fact that
1204
01:12:02,813 --> 01:12:05,383
there are a lot of
people who raised issues
1205
01:12:05,456 --> 01:12:09,188
about problems emerging,
but there are always
1206
01:12:09,296 --> 01:12:13,954
a lot people raising issues and
half the time they're wrong.
1207
01:12:14,247 --> 01:12:16,247
And the question
is what do you do.
1208
01:12:16,291 --> 01:12:19,555
I mean you point out,
quite correctly, that
1209
01:12:19,622 --> 01:12:23,248
the Federal Reserve had as good
and economic an organisation
1210
01:12:23,298 --> 01:12:26,258
as exists in, I would
say, in the world.
1211
01:12:26,969 --> 01:12:31,344
If all those extraordinarily
capable people were unable
1212
01:12:31,414 --> 01:12:35,081
to foresee the development
of this critical problem,
1213
01:12:35,771 --> 01:12:40,172
I think we have to ask
ourselves why is that.
1214
01:12:40,220 --> 01:12:44,875
And the answer is that
we're not smart enough.
1215
01:12:46,020 --> 01:12:49,441
AMBIENT SOUND
1216
01:13:01,924 --> 01:13:04,368
My aunt had a riding
stables in the Midwest
1217
01:13:04,673 --> 01:13:08,087
and every summer I'd go out
there and work for herself.
1218
01:13:08,164 --> 01:13:09,195
Go on, girl.
1219
01:13:10,747 --> 01:13:16,673
She died 12 / 14 years ago,
and there were 50 horses
1220
01:13:16,846 --> 01:13:19,681
to dispose of, so I thought,
"Well, I have the land now,
1221
01:13:19,736 --> 01:13:22,665
maybe I should get horses."
So that's what happened
1222
01:13:22,831 --> 01:13:23,707
Good girl.
1223
01:13:24,610 --> 01:13:27,283
I owe a lot more on this
place than it's worth,
1224
01:13:27,369 --> 01:13:31,369
so hopefully it'll all work
out and I can hang on to it,
1225
01:13:32,322 --> 01:13:34,722
but that's still
to be determined.
1226
01:13:39,056 --> 01:13:44,307
My situation right now is I'm
waiting for a loan modification.
1227
01:13:44,541 --> 01:13:46,743
I need a loan modification.
1228
01:13:46,873 --> 01:13:50,082
My only way out is a
loan modification.
1229
01:13:50,372 --> 01:13:53,923
I don't want to be live free, I
know I have to pay my mortgage,
1230
01:13:53,963 --> 01:13:55,650
I'm going to pay my mortgage.
1231
01:13:56,947 --> 01:14:00,049
It would be ashamed if I
cannot hang on to my house.
1232
01:14:00,237 --> 01:14:02,072
It would be a shame.
1233
01:14:05,776 --> 01:14:08,056
I don't want to think
about that, because
1234
01:14:08,164 --> 01:14:11,623
I don't think it's right
because I can pay for it,
1235
01:14:11,651 --> 01:14:14,717
all I'm asking is the
loan modification. OK.
1236
01:14:14,951 --> 01:14:17,660
The value of the
house was too high.
1237
01:14:17,753 --> 01:14:21,384
The kind of mortgage I
got was a bad mortgage,
1238
01:14:21,666 --> 01:14:24,541
so why they cannot redo
my mortgage for me?
1239
01:14:24,586 --> 01:14:27,369
Why they are going to
want me to lose my house,
1240
01:14:27,416 --> 01:14:29,142
or what they going
to do with it?
1241
01:14:29,497 --> 01:14:33,831
To have, you know, achieved a
measure of respect in your life,
1242
01:14:33,887 --> 01:14:36,955
worked hard to become a,
you know, correspondent
1243
01:14:37,002 --> 01:14:39,345
in Washington and a
famous newspaper,
1244
01:14:39,393 --> 01:14:45,064
and you know kind of been, in a
way, a part of the establishment
1245
01:14:45,112 --> 01:14:51,174
And to now, you know, see
yourself plunged down to being,
1246
01:14:51,205 --> 01:14:54,472
you know, a debtor the
likes of which are being
1247
01:14:54,502 --> 01:14:58,580
made fun of all over the place.
It's just an awful experience.
1248
01:14:59,026 --> 01:15:01,595
You find out you're not
as strong as you thought,
1249
01:15:01,623 --> 01:15:04,752
you're a whole lot more
foolish than you thought,
1250
01:15:04,873 --> 01:15:09,665
and furthermore you've lost,
maybe, almost everything
1251
01:15:09,706 --> 01:15:11,706
that you had,
1252
01:15:11,884 --> 01:15:14,718
in terms of your financial
assets and maybe even
1253
01:15:14,752 --> 01:15:16,485
in terms of your marriage.
1254
01:15:16,885 --> 01:15:19,306
It doesn't get much
worse than that.
1255
01:15:20,213 --> 01:15:27,380
MUSIC
1256
01:15:27,916 --> 01:15:31,580
So thank you all for
joining me today.
1257
01:15:32,489 --> 01:15:36,023
On this tour I gave you
guys a lot of information.
1258
01:15:36,168 --> 01:15:40,002
I wanna give you guys a few
takeaways, key takeaways.
1259
01:15:41,674 --> 01:15:43,830
People when they talk about
the financial crisis,
1260
01:15:43,885 --> 01:15:46,463
they talk about the regulation
of financial institutions,
1261
01:15:46,533 --> 01:15:48,822
they talk about evil
people lending money
1262
01:15:48,916 --> 01:15:51,174
when they shouldn't, taking
advantage of people,
1263
01:15:51,256 --> 01:15:53,869
predatory lending, but I
think all those things
1264
01:15:53,926 --> 01:15:58,308
pale before the real crisis,
which is the way in which
1265
01:15:58,404 --> 01:16:01,322
capital moves in the economy,
and the way in which
1266
01:16:01,355 --> 01:16:03,605
wage and equality has
caused this capital
1267
01:16:03,644 --> 01:16:05,727
to move so inefficiently
in our economy.
1268
01:16:05,840 --> 01:16:09,632
What we are doing in effect is
transferring money from people
1269
01:16:09,683 --> 01:16:13,081
who would spend it to people
who don't need all that money
1270
01:16:13,111 --> 01:16:14,445
and don't spend it.
1271
01:16:14,571 --> 01:16:17,705
Record bonuses, you know,
hundreds of people
1272
01:16:17,754 --> 01:16:20,050
getting more than 1
million dollars a year,
1273
01:16:20,129 --> 01:16:22,433
even when the company
makes a loss.
1274
01:16:22,629 --> 01:16:27,411
So the problem is
that when you have
1275
01:16:27,459 --> 01:16:32,894
growing in equality, typically
your level of consumption
1276
01:16:32,947 --> 01:16:34,050
goes down.
1277
01:16:34,379 --> 01:16:36,972
In the United States, we
said to those whose income
1278
01:16:37,012 --> 01:16:40,628
was not going anywhere, we
said, "Don't worry, continue
1279
01:16:40,655 --> 01:16:43,722
to spend as if you're
income was going up.
1280
01:16:44,160 --> 01:16:47,360
But the only way you do
that is through debt.
1281
01:16:48,334 --> 01:16:51,449
But that particular
model has been broken.
1282
01:16:52,362 --> 01:16:55,995
We need to have capitalism
work for us, not work us over.
1283
01:16:56,029 --> 01:16:57,781
This is the real
difference, right?
1284
01:16:57,855 --> 01:17:01,113
We need to figure out a way
to make profits create jobs,
1285
01:17:01,176 --> 01:17:05,222
for everybody, not profits
create just some wealth
1286
01:17:05,289 --> 01:17:06,555
for the very few.
1287
01:17:06,605 --> 01:17:09,981
If that's the case, then
capitalism will no longer work,
1288
01:17:10,043 --> 01:17:12,377
because people will
not stand for it.
1289
01:17:12,430 --> 01:17:16,363
And, what's made capitalism
great for the last 500 years,
1290
01:17:16,414 --> 01:17:18,363
is that it's actually
created better
1291
01:17:18,385 --> 01:17:19,878
standards of living
for everyone.
1292
01:17:20,074 --> 01:17:22,644
The capitalism the last
30 years, has decreased
1293
01:17:22,725 --> 01:17:24,284
the standard of
living for everyone
1294
01:17:24,396 --> 01:17:25,604
except those at the very top.
1295
01:17:32,581 --> 01:17:37,597
MUSIC
100088