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Welcome back folks.
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This is less than 2.1.
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Oh, January, 2017, 19 mentorship.
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We teaching using tenure
yields in our timeframe.
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Now.
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Okay.
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Tenure notes in higher timeframe
analysis, you can see here on the
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right hand side, we have the seasonal
tendency for the ten-year treasury note.
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And I want to take a look at the
seasonal tendency chart for a
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minute and try to see where the
most significant price swings occur.
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And don't worry, we'll be able to
zoom in in a moment, but you can see
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primarily there is a January, February
high that treat down to a June.
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And then June low trading
up into December's highs.
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So there's two primary or dominant cycles
in the seasonal for treasury notes.
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And it's bearish for the first
half of the year, and then bullish
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for the second part of the year.
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This teaching's going to give us an
example of where that takes place.
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And we're also going to see
when the seasonal tendency
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doesn't have an influence on.
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The market.
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And we're also going to see when the
market actually performs adversely
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or contrary to the seasonal tendency.
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Okay.
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Before we get into it, some quick notes
for you when we chart the ten-year
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treasury prices or the futures contract,
when we're using bar chart.com.
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When we chart the 10 year treasury yield.
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We using investing.com.
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Both of these websites are free and it's
a quick notes for your treasury prices are
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inverted yield as treasury prices drop.
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That means the futures contract
for the ten-year treasury notes.
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When that price drops on the chart
that shows a treasury yields increase
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as treasury prices rise.
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Treasury yields decline
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as a general rule, thumb
long-term funds seek yield.
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That means money will be placed
or allocated in areas at which
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we'll will seek the majority
or most return on investment.
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Okay.
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The dollar index has it relatively easy,
or it can rally when the yields increase.
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And this is seen when the futures
contract prices drop on the 10 year
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note and the dollar has its easiest
or most opportune time to decline.
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When yields decrease.
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This has seen when a
treasury futures price rise.
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Okay here, we have a zoomed in seasonal
tendency on a ten-year treasury note,
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and I'll take your attention to the
first portion of the seasonal tenants.
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And he says in January to February,
there's a high generally forums and it
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trades down into around June or middle
of the year and around June, July.
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It's really like the last week of may.
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Really, if you look at it, it's
the last week of may and rolls into
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the first week of July, usually
it makes it seasonal low there.
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And then the 10-year treasury notes
usually rally the rest of the year.
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Now, if we have this seasonal tendency
on the underlying futures, contract
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price, On the treasury prices.
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This is not the yield.
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The yield would be inverted.
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Okay.
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So in other words, if we're watching
the June, July low and prices on
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the tenure or rallying, that means
interest rates are actually dropping.
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So it's going to be an adverse effect
or inverted, uh, effect on the yield.
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If we see this occurring
in the ten-year treasury.
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We should be seeing what in the dollar
index, if we could show a seasonal
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tendency, which we happen to have one in
the next slide, by the way, if we have
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the dollar index as a seasonal tendency,
should this be occurring at the same
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time that we see the June, July rally,
should that be occurring with a bullish
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or bearish move in the dollar index?
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Oh, here's that seasonal
tenancy for a dollar.
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00:04:50,700 --> 00:04:54,419
And you can see around the
January, February time, there's
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00:04:54,419 --> 00:04:58,200
usually a rally that takes place,
which is contrary to what we saw
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00:04:58,229 --> 00:04:59,490
in the ten-year treasury notes.
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Declining.
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Now we have a significant high
for me between June and July.
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00:05:07,635 --> 00:05:10,215
And then the dollar index typically
trades down the rest of the year.
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You're usually making a
low around the last week of
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October, first week of November.
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And it creates a small little bounce on a
November timeframe for the dollar index.
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So the primary two trends in this market
for the dollar that is in alignment
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with the seasonal tendency seen in the
tenure is there is a bearish tone to the
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marketplace for the dollar index mid June.
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To July.
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And then we also see some rallying
on the dollar index at the beginning
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of the year, going into March.
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Now there is a seasonal tendency for
dollar to decline March into may, but
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that would have to be in bear markets.
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And in bullish markets, you could expect
to see November be, uh, uh, by may.
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Be a buy and January, be a buy
in for dollar index and the sales
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00:06:03,059 --> 00:06:10,739
come in that March, June, July, and
there's one in September, and then
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usually creates some short, uh, pie
in the latter portion of November.
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Let's go back to the 10
year treasury note just for.
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Okay.
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You can see there's a strong
contrast between the two.
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And that means that we do have a
high probability scenario for if
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the 10 year treasury nodes are
rallying and in the futures price.
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That means that the yield.
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What were you doing?
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The opposite?
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There'll be going down.
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So interest rates will be dropping.
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The interest rates are dropping.
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That's going to cause the tendency
for yield seeking traders or
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investors to avoid the dollar index.
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Because if the interest rates are
dropping, that's not going to incite,
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wanting to buy dollar-based assets.
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So the reason why we're seeing
this adverse effect here is
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because there is a direct inverted
relationship between the two.
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So if we had this blending of
these two markets, it gives
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us a context to work with.
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If we're gonna be looking for
quarterly shifts in the marketplace.
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Okay.
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Here's the 10 year treasury note
is the September contract of 2015.
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And remember that we saw the
seasonal tendency to form a low in
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June, July, and a 10 year treasury
note contract for September.
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Cause you in symbols, name Z N U
one five upper left-hand corner.
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That U stands for the month of September.
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That's the delivery contract or September.
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You can see that the contract
prices for treasury note prices
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started to rally in June.
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That means that the yields are going to
be decreasing or declining, and that's
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00:08:03,990 --> 00:08:06,440
going to be bearish for the dollar and.
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We see in June, July, we made
a short-term high traded lower.
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We violated the low in may.
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And then look what happens between
mid June into July and August.
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The dollar index actually has a little
bit of a rally at the same time.
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00:08:31,005 --> 00:08:33,765
September contract of
treasury notes, tenure.
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At the same time, the treasury notes
were rallying with its seasonal tendency.
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If we look at the dollar index,
it was slightly bullish as well.
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So when we see this scenario, we
are looking at the likelihood.
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If they're moving in tandem,
that means we're actually going
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to be in a large consultant.
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That means it's not going to be a
trending environment, most likely.
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And that means we want to look
for previous highs and previous
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00:08:56,849 --> 00:08:59,370
lows to be violated in back
to the middle of the range.
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You can see that was the effect here after
July and August delete part of August.
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We came all the way down and took out the
may, June loads in the market, essentially
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from the dollar index moot sideways
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2016, September contract.
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10-year treasury notes.
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Again, we can see that last week
of may going into June, that
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seasonal tendency for a load of
form for tenure treasury nodes.
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Ten-year treasury notes, rally
all up into July, and that should
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give us a bear stance for the
dollar index at the same time.
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And as you see, we did have a bears
decline in the last week of may going
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into June and it gave one more lower,
low, and a lighter portion of June.
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But look what happens again.
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We had the dollar index
rally one more time.
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And again, we'll go back
to the previous slide.
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So you can see the 10 year treasury
note, see how it's slightly higher,
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00:10:00,824 --> 00:10:02,535
high, and going into July as well.
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00:10:03,464 --> 00:10:07,305
And then we saw that and we saw that
one more higher high pushed into the
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dollar index in the latter portion of.
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00:10:10,680 --> 00:10:14,010
Again, this is going to be an
indication that the markets are
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00:10:14,010 --> 00:10:16,080
going to be in a large consolidation.
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00:10:16,560 --> 00:10:19,080
So think about what
we've already shown here.
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If the market's showing the tendency
to be in a large consolidation, why?
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Because both yield and.
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10-year treasuries and the dollar
are moving in the same direction.
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If that occurs, what we're looking
at is long-term in decisiveness.
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And that means because both
of them were moving in tandem.
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The likelihood of a continued
directional trade higher or lower
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for either one is highly unlikely.
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00:10:48,195 --> 00:10:53,085
So we would be focusing on looking
for stop raids or looking for if
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the data range to look back and see
previous highs and lows to be violated.
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Um, both treasury and on the dollar index.
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00:11:01,515 --> 00:11:06,045
So if we're looking at this condition,
what these dispose that does for foreign
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currencies, it does several things.
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Number one, it puts you in a long-term
consolidation of foreign currencies
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because the dollar is in consolidation
and treasuries are in consolidation.
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00:11:19,095 --> 00:11:21,705
If we see times when
the treasury market is.
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Moving in at seasonal tendency
and the dollar is supporting
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that same seasonal tendency.
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Then we have a strong probability of a
directional long-term trend in that's
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00:11:32,895 --> 00:11:34,515
where the large funds placed their money.
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When you get into the marketplace
on those moves, you have these long
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periods of many weeks, several months
in terms of one directional bias moods
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and all the words long-term trends.
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Okay.
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00:11:51,870 --> 00:11:52,890
Our next example.
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Now we're looking at the March
contract of the ten-year treasury
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00:11:57,570 --> 00:12:01,800
notes for 2017, and I'm using this
contract because it allows me to share
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00:12:01,800 --> 00:12:08,760
the data for the latter portion of
2016 and going into present trading
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00:12:08,760 --> 00:12:13,920
day, you can see here that treasury.
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00:12:14,970 --> 00:12:18,540
Market seasonal tendency to
create a high in November.
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00:12:21,030 --> 00:12:24,150
And let's go back to that seasonal
tendency just so you guys can see it.
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Okay.
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00:12:26,670 --> 00:12:28,020
Here's the seasonal tendency.
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00:12:28,020 --> 00:12:31,020
Once again, for the 10 year treasury
note, all the way to the far, right?
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00:12:31,020 --> 00:12:34,740
You can see that green line, that vertical
line that most furthest to the right.
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00:12:35,420 --> 00:12:37,250
That furthest most right.
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00:12:37,340 --> 00:12:40,910
Green vertical line that delineates
the beginning of the trading
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00:12:40,910 --> 00:12:42,470
for the March delivery contract.
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00:12:42,930 --> 00:12:47,030
You can see that that actually makes
the high of the March contract and it
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00:12:47,030 --> 00:12:51,170
starts to trade off lower from that
price point, that seasonal tendency
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00:12:51,170 --> 00:12:56,480
to create that high for March contract
is going to be influential for us in
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00:12:56,720 --> 00:12:58,850
that next slide that we just looked at.
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00:13:00,530 --> 00:13:01,840
So here we are back again, that same.
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00:13:03,240 --> 00:13:07,560
10-year treasury notes slide
for 2017 March contract.
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00:13:08,970 --> 00:13:13,770
Now we had the presidential
election, obviously in 2016.
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00:13:14,610 --> 00:13:18,839
And what we're looking at is that
high, that the election results
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00:13:18,839 --> 00:13:25,050
shown for Donald Trump, making our
president elect at that time of vote.
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00:13:26,265 --> 00:13:29,505
The seasonal tendency for the March
contract could create a high, you can
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00:13:29,505 --> 00:13:31,935
see that came into effect in November.
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00:13:32,444 --> 00:13:39,105
So while we're looking at the end of that
uptrend for the seasonal tendency on the
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00:13:39,105 --> 00:13:44,415
10 year treasury note, we're looking at
the beginning of a seasonal high, and
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00:13:44,415 --> 00:13:48,765
that gives us that movement going lower
into the latter portions of December
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00:13:48,795 --> 00:13:51,975
in the SGC here that's transpired 2016.
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00:13:52,365 --> 00:13:54,900
If we see this occurring, Okay.
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00:13:54,900 --> 00:13:55,980
And it's now trending.
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00:13:55,980 --> 00:13:57,240
It's not in consolidation.
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00:13:57,450 --> 00:13:59,760
It's down trending for the
ten-year treasury notes.
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00:14:00,150 --> 00:14:02,850
That's going to provide the
opportunity for the dollar index to
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00:14:02,850 --> 00:14:06,360
do the opposite, but also do it in
a fashion that's in a trending mode.
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00:14:08,100 --> 00:14:08,820
You can see it in Nova.
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00:14:09,600 --> 00:14:11,400
We had that same effect.
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00:14:11,400 --> 00:14:14,730
It's the opposite terms or
the election shown this.
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00:14:14,730 --> 00:14:19,860
So off in the ten-year treasury notes that
sell off shows an increase in interest
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00:14:19,860 --> 00:14:23,550
rates, which means there's going to be
an interest to now buy dollar, because
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00:14:23,550 --> 00:14:27,630
it's going to be going higher as the 10
year treasury should dropping interest
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00:14:27,630 --> 00:14:29,449
rates are increasing, which means.
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00:14:30,570 --> 00:14:31,830
That there's going to be buyers.
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00:14:31,830 --> 00:14:36,090
That's going to be seeking yield by
buying the dollar index and you can see
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00:14:36,090 --> 00:14:39,450
the market did in fact have a trending
environment and trying to training higher
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00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:41,189
than creating short term loan December.
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00:14:41,189 --> 00:14:45,540
And then finally making this
high in the first portion of,
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00:14:45,750 --> 00:14:47,670
uh, December of this year.
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00:14:50,100 --> 00:14:54,120
So the moral wall, this is that if we
studied the ten-year treasury notes
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00:14:54,150 --> 00:14:59,340
and its price, It's either going to
be moving in it seasonal tendency, or
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00:14:59,340 --> 00:15:02,520
if the dollar index moves in tandem
with it, that suggests that we're
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00:15:02,520 --> 00:15:04,170
going to be in a larger consolidation.
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00:15:04,860 --> 00:15:07,740
If you look at all of the
currency pairs that we.
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00:15:08,565 --> 00:15:13,155
Trade in the form of the British
pound, the Euro dollar, those pairs
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00:15:13,275 --> 00:15:18,915
were in big consolidations all through
the mid portion of 2016, that was
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00:15:18,915 --> 00:15:23,415
attributed to the consolidation that
we saw in the ten-year treasury note.
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And the dollar index, because
you're basically moving in the
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same direction, but they were
range-bound, that's going to translate
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into range-bound trading as well.
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The only caveat is going to be
until we solve the Brexit vote.
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00:15:36,645 --> 00:15:39,375
And that's obviously going
to be the bank impact.
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00:15:40,530 --> 00:15:43,260
Uh, the latter portions
of the summer months.
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00:15:43,290 --> 00:15:47,220
But prior to that, everything in
the marketplace we saw was all
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00:15:47,250 --> 00:15:48,630
range-bound for currency trading.
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So now one of the things I said about this
month, it's going to be helpful to use.
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When are you looking for a trade?
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That's going to be explosive and trending.
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00:15:57,210 --> 00:16:00,720
When the 10 year treasury notes
seasonal tendency is in effect, you
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00:16:00,720 --> 00:16:05,040
see it happening and it's supported
with the contrary and price action
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00:16:05,040 --> 00:16:09,375
you see in a dollar index, as we
described here, If they are not
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00:16:09,375 --> 00:16:12,675
showing that chances are we're going
to be arranged bound consolidation.
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00:16:12,885 --> 00:16:16,515
And that means you're going to be
focusing on very short term moves.
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00:16:16,665 --> 00:16:20,175
That means it's going to be high
probability for short-term trades and
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00:16:20,175 --> 00:16:24,944
day trades and highly unlikely for
longterm position trades long-term
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00:16:24,944 --> 00:16:28,365
position trades are going to be
favorable and the conditions we
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00:16:28,365 --> 00:16:31,965
just shown here, when we see 10 year
treasury notes, moving in trending.
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That's going to put the dollar
index into a trending environment.
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00:16:36,705 --> 00:16:43,365
Also, if we see the absence of the
seasonal tendency, the strongest form
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00:16:43,365 --> 00:16:47,985
of the buy signal for ten-year treasury
notes around June, July, if that's
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00:16:47,985 --> 00:16:51,285
not occurring, then we're going to
be focusing on where the highs form
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00:16:51,285 --> 00:16:54,375
seasonally in the seasonal tendency
for the 10 year treasury notes to get
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00:16:54,375 --> 00:16:56,505
ourselves in sync with the opposite scope.
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00:16:56,775 --> 00:16:59,295
In other words, just because the
seasonal tendency is the strongest as it.
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00:17:00,255 --> 00:17:05,295
In June, July for a 10-year treasuries
doesn't mean that when that is not
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00:17:05,295 --> 00:17:07,724
the case, because the markets are
not always doing the same thing.
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Every single time, we can focus
primary being a bearish, a 10-year
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00:17:12,704 --> 00:17:18,464
note trader, which would give us the
November high as we indicated here,
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00:17:18,585 --> 00:17:22,785
which lined up also for the seasonal
tendency for our election this year.
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00:17:24,075 --> 00:17:26,925
So we're going to build on this
model here in the next teaching
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00:17:27,315 --> 00:17:28,605
and until then, which good luck.
23661
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