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Good morning folks, and welcome
to another week of Forex trading.
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Okay.
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00:00:11,120 --> 00:00:16,129
We're looking at the dollar index
and this morning we have meme
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impact news coming out at eight 30
directly related to cat and dollar
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00:00:22,250 --> 00:00:24,590
outside of that, we have a layer.
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Calendar full of speeches and such.
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So we may have just a small little window
of opportunity for a study on price
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action this morning, relative to the CAD.
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We're gonna start with our discussion
on the fact that we had this.
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Let me go back out a little bit, so
you can see, uh, we had the order block
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00:00:49,690 --> 00:00:52,599
here last up candle prior to the demo.
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00:00:54,595 --> 00:01:01,975
So we know there was institutional selling
in here on this candle right here, and we
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00:01:01,975 --> 00:01:07,795
still have a liquidity pool resting just
above these highs at 98, 55 or 98 60.
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And we saw price just
Pierce it this morning.
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Let me make sure I got my level here.
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98, 12.
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Okay.
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So over here we have the buy stocks.
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00:01:22,820 --> 00:01:26,810
We mentioned this last week, Holly
left the equal highs up here.
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Um, we know above the highs is by
stops the market peers through that
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00:01:32,000 --> 00:01:35,480
came back down pierced at one more
time again, and we're having some
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00:01:35,480 --> 00:01:41,490
difficulty around in these four blocks
right in here when I'm expecting.
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Is one more drive through.
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I think this was probably just a
retracement going in head of the news.
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And I don't know if we'll have a
continuation through that and we may
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00:01:54,090 --> 00:01:59,820
just poke up through it and then come
down and trade softer if we do on dollar.
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00:02:00,390 --> 00:02:04,800
Um, we got to go back out to the daily
chart and we're going to have to look
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00:02:04,800 --> 00:02:10,289
at this down candle because if this
is a bull shorter block, And if we're
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00:02:10,289 --> 00:02:16,620
going to see that 98, 55 98 60 level,
uh, this down candle here should offer
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00:02:17,880 --> 00:02:19,649
support around its mean threshold.
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00:02:36,484 --> 00:02:36,755
Okay.
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00:02:36,755 --> 00:02:38,614
So we've got that on their chart now.
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00:02:43,825 --> 00:02:43,885
Yeah,
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you can see, we have a little bit of a
distance down in here where we could see
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00:02:56,774 --> 00:02:59,924
that a 97, 80 level Retraded to today.
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00:03:00,495 --> 00:03:07,605
Um, Again, if we get the news pushing
through, I'm going to be watching
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00:03:07,605 --> 00:03:09,585
because to me, it looks like CAD.
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00:03:11,405 --> 00:03:15,365
He's going to want to come down
here and close this void in here.
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00:03:15,965 --> 00:03:17,135
And the way we mark that out,
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00:03:21,785 --> 00:03:27,215
we had this low and here in the high here
in between those two reference points.
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That's our boy.
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00:03:32,700 --> 00:03:40,020
So price has been delivered everywhere
in this range from this low to this high,
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but it's only offered on the, on the up.
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Never came down yet.
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No, we've just got to come down
through there to be efficient with
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00:03:50,930 --> 00:03:55,370
that said, um, we have to be monitoring
last week and what I'm going to show
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00:03:55,370 --> 00:03:57,110
you that low here, that's this low.
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00:03:59,170 --> 00:04:02,590
Just drawing a rule on the 15
minute timeframe we have cell
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00:04:02,590 --> 00:04:04,090
stops resting just below that.
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00:04:05,410 --> 00:04:09,700
So what we're looking for, we don't want
to see it run directly right from here.
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Right?
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00:04:55,640 --> 00:05:02,810
So we have 1 30, 1 35 and then 1 30, 1 47.
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00:05:06,440 --> 00:05:10,010
So either one of those two levels,
if we run up into that at the release
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00:05:10,190 --> 00:05:17,909
in about seven minutes, that may
be a opportunity to be sellers, to
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reach for the self SaaS below here.
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00:05:20,400 --> 00:05:27,299
Um, if we drive through to
31 40 level, we're gonna be
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watching this level up here.
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We don't want to see it run
for the stops right now.
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It's too early.
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00:05:51,845 --> 00:05:54,725
We want to see it and keep
it, keep it intact here.
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00:05:55,145 --> 00:05:59,255
Make a little run against the down move
that we had so far, that would be ideal.
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00:06:01,215 --> 00:06:02,595
Expect a move lower.
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00:06:43,360 --> 00:06:46,030
As you can see, there's really nothing
on a daily chart offering support.
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00:06:49,880 --> 00:06:53,360
So we have, we definitely
have stops below last.
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00:06:53,360 --> 00:07:02,480
Friday's low here and below it really
nothing over here that gets me to
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00:07:02,480 --> 00:07:07,790
concern for, uh, hi, add support to me.
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00:07:07,790 --> 00:07:12,980
If we lose the Friday's low,
we could expand down and
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00:07:13,340 --> 00:07:15,140
try to trade into this boy.
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00:07:21,370 --> 00:07:24,160
So the initial draw is
the stops on Friday's low.
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00:07:25,510 --> 00:07:31,150
And then we'll see if we get expansion
through, on this candle below it,
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00:07:31,210 --> 00:07:38,240
the 1 30, 70, and then we'd have to
look at the lows formed below here.
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No.
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For the bulls we'd have to get through
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32 32 resume only upside.
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And it's always a potential.
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00:08:01,840 --> 00:08:04,330
When we have news coming on
eight 30, we can always get an,
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uh, New York session reversed.
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00:08:13,110 --> 00:08:17,910
Pound dollar still finding
support at our level.
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00:08:17,910 --> 00:08:20,910
We identified last week,
small little bounce in here.
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00:08:21,330 --> 00:08:22,110
We're at it again.
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00:08:22,830 --> 00:08:26,820
Uh, we may end up pushing through
a little bit more on the downside
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dollar just really is not pretty.
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00:08:38,414 --> 00:08:40,334
Um, let's see what you're doing.
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What's that?
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Uh, 1 10 0 5 level today.
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1 10, 10, 1 10 0 5 level.
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Should it should offer
near-term resistance.
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00:09:00,845 --> 00:09:01,355
If it doesn't.
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00:09:02,690 --> 00:09:08,620
We're probably going to be moving up
into the, by stuff's resting above and
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00:09:08,620 --> 00:09:09,940
we get this little thing out of the way,
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1, 10, 20 to one 10 thirties.
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00:09:20,130 --> 00:09:21,480
That's where your buying stops are.
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00:09:22,230 --> 00:09:26,940
So if you see any expansion through 1
10, 10, 1, 10 thirties in the cards,
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00:09:34,240 --> 00:09:36,699
Small liquidity pool resting around 97 70.
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00:09:45,430 --> 00:09:47,770
So we have sell stops
below the market here.
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00:09:50,810 --> 00:09:54,199
Reason why I think that it
may, may run dollar up on the
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news and then collapse it.
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00:09:56,689 --> 00:10:01,120
Um, It's because they're
keeping it so close.
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00:10:02,050 --> 00:10:04,780
They're keeping really, really
close to the highs here.
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00:10:05,470 --> 00:10:11,500
Now, if we run through it and expand
and go beyond 20 pips above the
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00:10:11,500 --> 00:10:17,020
highest formed here, then we will be
willing to allow for a retracement.
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00:10:17,020 --> 00:10:20,770
And then we could see further upside
for dollar, but that would cause
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issues for our dollar catch-up.
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00:10:25,515 --> 00:10:26,415
And that's what we're looking for here.
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We're looking for this a little bit
of a pushup into these, these levels.
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Okay.
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00:11:01,640 --> 00:11:01,699
Yeah.
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00:11:31,230 --> 00:11:31,319
Okay.
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00:11:36,305 --> 00:11:39,155
The only thing we're really
studying today is the news release.
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At eight 30, we have conflicting
technicals across both
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sides of the dollar and Kat.
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00:11:49,085 --> 00:11:53,225
I like the fact that we have a
nice London high on dollar cat.
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31 33 and right.
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00:12:04,064 --> 00:12:05,324
So the numbers are releasing.
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Watch the 31 49.
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00:13:15,135 --> 00:13:15,225
Okay.
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00:13:32,645 --> 00:13:32,824
Yeah.
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00:13:32,824 --> 00:13:34,745
I see some of you saying you
have an issues with code.
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00:13:35,850 --> 00:13:39,720
Um, it's obviously working for
others because they're commenting
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00:13:39,720 --> 00:13:40,890
on what I'm showing on the chart.
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00:13:40,890 --> 00:13:42,720
So it might be something on your end.
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00:13:44,400 --> 00:13:47,160
I know it sounds like I'm displacing
responsibility, but it's hard
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00:13:47,160 --> 00:13:50,760
to, it's hard to argue when other
people are actually seeing it.
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00:13:50,970 --> 00:13:51,600
So I'm not sure what's.
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00:14:26,380 --> 00:14:26,560
Yeah.
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00:14:26,590 --> 00:14:27,160
Thank you, David.
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00:14:28,030 --> 00:14:29,470
Yeah, I'm not sure what's going on.
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00:14:29,530 --> 00:14:32,200
Some, some may have
three people reporting.
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00:14:32,200 --> 00:14:35,620
They had issues with the
webinar or not working.
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00:14:49,060 --> 00:14:49,300
Yeah.
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00:14:49,300 --> 00:14:53,229
I noticed that, that I had
set up for a Sunday and I
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never launched it the webinar.
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00:14:55,390 --> 00:14:59,489
So I just went with the link just to say.
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00:15:14,805 --> 00:15:16,125
Um, if you just got here.
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00:15:16,455 --> 00:15:22,695
No one thing I said was we're
looking for the dollar CAD that
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00:15:22,695 --> 00:15:27,805
want to press down below Friday's
low Eliana, London, high in place.
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00:15:28,590 --> 00:15:33,780
I was looking really rather for a move
in 1 30, 1 40, I would have liked to sold
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00:15:33,780 --> 00:15:35,880
it there, right off the numbers release.
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00:15:35,939 --> 00:15:36,780
That would have been nice.
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00:15:37,620 --> 00:15:42,390
Um, but they only gave us one
little hit here at the 31 33 level.
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00:15:42,390 --> 00:15:46,860
We identified off this bear, shorter
block, um, small little, small, little
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minor move, nothing significant.
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00:15:49,530 --> 00:15:53,280
Um, and I mentioned that there was
nothing, nothing here in terms of
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support all the older blocks down here.
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00:15:55,560 --> 00:15:57,240
If they go back into
them, I don't see that.
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00:15:58,245 --> 00:15:59,984
Institutional support.
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00:16:00,015 --> 00:16:04,844
I think we'll probably going to run
down into those, uh, 1, 1 30 big
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00:16:04,875 --> 00:16:10,665
figure, maybe go into 1 29, 81, 29 65.
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00:16:12,165 --> 00:16:13,035
Um, not today.
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00:16:13,035 --> 00:16:15,314
I'm not saying it's gonna happen today,
but it may be what we're going to draw
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00:16:15,344 --> 00:16:17,834
down into over the course of this week.
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00:16:18,104 --> 00:16:22,155
Barring anything that would
drive price up through the.
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00:16:25,615 --> 00:16:28,765
Opening on this candle here,
which comes in at 32 30.
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00:16:28,765 --> 00:16:30,325
So we have to get back about 30 to 30.
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00:16:30,775 --> 00:16:34,465
You know, we have to climb a hundred
pips from here and go through that
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00:16:34,585 --> 00:16:40,585
31, I'm sorry, 32 30 level before
I would ever change gears and
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00:16:40,585 --> 00:16:42,025
get back into buying near term.
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00:16:42,835 --> 00:16:46,195
So where we're at right now, we're
probably gonna want to come down and
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00:16:46,195 --> 00:16:48,475
close that daily liquidity void in here.
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00:16:51,260 --> 00:16:53,979
Here between this candle's
high, this Campbell's low.
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00:16:54,339 --> 00:16:56,770
We had just that one candle
here offered on the upside.
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00:16:57,130 --> 00:16:58,630
Nothing on the downside has been given
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00:17:04,810 --> 00:17:07,359
the fact that we have a Monday
and we have all these speeches
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00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:08,980
still layered into the day.
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00:17:09,520 --> 00:17:13,480
Um, it really puts a big mute
button on, uh, on price action.
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00:17:13,480 --> 00:17:14,679
It makes it a little bit
more difficult to treat.
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00:17:15,530 --> 00:17:19,739
We still have to study it and watch
it and gain experience by seeing
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what liquidity runs look like.
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00:17:21,629 --> 00:17:22,800
Even in these environments,
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Deadpool's just for free pre you tubes.
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00:17:36,370 --> 00:17:37,959
I tried to keep it a little bit
more professional in this space.
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00:17:53,360 --> 00:18:01,730
Uh, discussion about the opening, um,
to the high or, uh, the opening to the
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00:18:01,730 --> 00:18:07,220
low, relative to the bare shorter block
and what constitutes a fair value gap.
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00:18:08,520 --> 00:18:10,890
That will be explained to you in detail.
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If I talk about it here, it's
just gonna create more questions.
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00:18:13,950 --> 00:18:16,830
So if you have questions, I've already
instructed you just to write them down
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00:18:17,430 --> 00:18:21,480
and you'll see, 99% of them will be
answered as we go through the material.
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00:18:22,290 --> 00:18:26,340
But when you have questions like that,
you need to study it, look into what,
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00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:29,340
what you see on your own, because
that's where the learning takes place.
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00:18:51,825 --> 00:18:56,565
why am I not considering the bullish
order blocked on dollar case?
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00:18:58,605 --> 00:19:00,075
September 22nd.
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00:19:20,595 --> 00:19:21,135
This one here.
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Hang on one second.
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00:19:29,685 --> 00:19:31,395
Let me get this thing on the
way so I can talk about it.
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00:19:33,105 --> 00:19:33,525
All right.
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00:19:34,245 --> 00:19:36,315
September 22nd, this block right here.
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00:19:36,315 --> 00:19:40,005
Why I'm not terribly excited
about that as offering support is
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00:19:40,005 --> 00:19:42,405
because we've already hit this one.
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00:19:42,405 --> 00:19:45,735
Once when price ran away from
that one, it came back down.
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00:19:47,104 --> 00:19:48,274
Capitalize that level.
191
00:19:48,844 --> 00:19:51,304
And then it came back down again,
one more time, capitalized it.
192
00:19:51,544 --> 00:19:57,215
So if we go down into that level again,
my expectation is, is we're not most
193
00:19:57,215 --> 00:20:00,875
likely going to see buying there and they
haven't really taken any cell stops out
194
00:20:00,875 --> 00:20:02,465
except for this swing low on a daily.
195
00:20:03,215 --> 00:20:06,185
So I would be more inclined to expect
them to come back all the way through
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00:20:06,185 --> 00:20:11,135
here, clear out this level of stops,
and then it frees them the go higher.
197
00:20:11,135 --> 00:20:12,695
If it's going to be, you
know, longer longer-term.
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00:20:13,770 --> 00:20:18,570
Movement the fact that we've already
hit the order block there, here and
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00:20:18,570 --> 00:20:22,710
here on the basis of the daily chart,
it's consumed a lot of those orders.
200
00:20:25,590 --> 00:20:31,920
So while it could still do it, I
wouldn't elect a trade there simply on
201
00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:35,610
the basis of the day, it's been there
twice already on a hard timeframe chart.
202
00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:43,170
Yes.
203
00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:49,350
Imagine, um, imagine every order block,
whether it be bullish or bearish,
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00:20:49,360 --> 00:20:56,460
imagine each one of these candles
holding a number of buy or sell orders.
205
00:20:56,460 --> 00:20:59,460
In other words, if it's a bare shorter
block, it's the last up candle right
206
00:20:59,460 --> 00:21:07,530
before it down move, uh, consider that
candle holding a reserve of sell orders.
207
00:21:09,210 --> 00:21:11,520
And if the market's going
to rally like it did here.
208
00:21:12,450 --> 00:21:16,050
Obviously there was enough buying
in this candle to allow them to let
209
00:21:16,050 --> 00:21:21,060
price go higher, but they couldn't
get all of their buys on because there
210
00:21:21,060 --> 00:21:23,190
wasn't that much time spent there.
211
00:21:24,240 --> 00:21:27,750
So when price runs up, they wait
for it to come back down again
212
00:21:27,780 --> 00:21:29,340
and then they buy it again here.
213
00:21:29,340 --> 00:21:32,370
What orders they couldn't get on
the first time they'll buy here.
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00:21:32,370 --> 00:21:36,030
That's the reason why the first return
to a bullish or bearish order block
215
00:21:36,060 --> 00:21:37,620
is always the most high problem.
216
00:21:38,685 --> 00:21:42,255
Because you know that there's going
to be a willingness to see it move.
217
00:21:42,285 --> 00:21:46,005
Even if it bounces 30, 40 pips, that's
all it's necessary for us to get paid.
218
00:21:47,385 --> 00:21:51,675
But every time we go back into that level,
less orders will be there because they'll,
219
00:21:51,765 --> 00:21:56,205
there'll be able to capitalize on that
fact of it being returning back into that
220
00:21:56,205 --> 00:21:57,975
same carrier, which they bought before.
221
00:21:58,485 --> 00:22:00,315
And then it price came back
down to it one more time.
222
00:22:00,315 --> 00:22:01,575
And then finally look what happens.
223
00:22:01,575 --> 00:22:04,095
It releases and clears another high.
224
00:22:04,365 --> 00:22:06,495
So why would it need to come all
the way back down to that low.
225
00:22:09,630 --> 00:22:11,790
If it's going to be higher, if
it's going to be moving higher.
226
00:22:11,790 --> 00:22:15,810
My point is if it's bought, if they
bought rather around 30 to 70 is
227
00:22:15,810 --> 00:22:18,840
their average price or thirty, thirty,
eighty, if it let's call it like that.
228
00:22:19,590 --> 00:22:23,160
So if they're buying a 30 80 here and
they bought 30 80 here again, and they've
229
00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:29,730
already broken a high off the first
return here, why would they, why would
230
00:22:29,730 --> 00:22:30,900
they need to go back down there again?
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00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:32,310
They shouldn't need it.
232
00:22:33,510 --> 00:22:33,990
Does that make sense?
233
00:22:43,245 --> 00:22:44,534
For it to go back down into that.
234
00:22:44,565 --> 00:22:47,835
What a block on a daily chart
over here would not be good.
235
00:22:48,345 --> 00:22:49,125
This is for that way.
236
00:22:49,784 --> 00:22:52,514
I know is I don't see that as
high probability by cause we've
237
00:22:52,514 --> 00:22:53,655
already been there several times.
238
00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:14,990
Okay.
239
00:23:14,990 --> 00:23:15,800
And we said, we'd go.
240
00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:19,490
If we go through 31 40, we got
to watch these lows in here.
241
00:23:30,625 --> 00:23:32,845
Now the question is, and I
haven't seen it yet, but I'm sure.
242
00:23:32,845 --> 00:23:37,375
You're probably wondering if
this was a trade day where
243
00:23:37,375 --> 00:23:38,455
we would have taken a trade.
244
00:23:39,265 --> 00:23:48,145
Would we have sold it at 31 40 or would
we have sold it at, uh, uh, 31 33?
245
00:23:49,555 --> 00:23:51,895
The ideal scenario would
have been at the numbers.
246
00:23:54,100 --> 00:23:54,340
Okay.
247
00:23:54,340 --> 00:24:01,110
At the numbers release, if it would have
shot up into 31 40 without making any more
248
00:24:01,110 --> 00:24:06,360
movement, lower, that's the ideal scenario
for it to run down and hit the cell stops.
249
00:24:06,389 --> 00:24:08,190
That's that's the ideal scenario.
250
00:24:09,270 --> 00:24:12,840
The fact that we pressed lower
initially reacted to numbers release.
251
00:24:13,440 --> 00:24:14,610
That's not what you want to see.
252
00:24:15,420 --> 00:24:19,350
And the more time it takes
before it starts to go, uh, hi.
253
00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:23,070
The less likely it is for
it to go lower on the day.
254
00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:35,240
So if we, if we can hold price at
bay at 31 48 or 31 50, will we have
255
00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:38,270
closed in this small little liquidity
void in here, and it's not too much
256
00:24:38,270 --> 00:24:42,050
of a void because we have this candle
here in this candle here trading.
257
00:24:42,050 --> 00:24:48,340
So we only had a small little
exposed area of, well, in
258
00:24:48,340 --> 00:24:49,210
reality, it's only been there.
259
00:24:50,055 --> 00:24:52,875
Because we have this candle here
and this Kayla here, so we have
260
00:24:52,885 --> 00:24:55,185
small little piece right in the air.
261
00:24:55,185 --> 00:24:58,215
So we, maybe you just gunning for 31 50.
262
00:24:59,865 --> 00:25:01,845
So that's watch the response at 31 50.
263
00:25:03,165 --> 00:25:10,274
If we get it at all, I just
don't see anything over here that
264
00:25:10,274 --> 00:25:14,805
gets me, uh, to, to an anxious
about seeing support for them.
265
00:25:17,784 --> 00:25:18,565
Dollar's still stuck.
266
00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:35,040
Five are still sleeping.
267
00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:52,170
Uh, Stevia that is not germane to
today's discussion, but I'm glad you
268
00:25:52,170 --> 00:25:55,500
spoke up because I was, I was trying
to reach out to you, see if you would
269
00:25:55,500 --> 00:25:57,899
be willing to have a panel session.
270
00:25:58,620 --> 00:26:02,879
Um, I'm not trying to have a lot of
these, but, uh, you're like the oldest
271
00:26:02,879 --> 00:26:05,550
student of mine from back in the nineties.
272
00:26:06,540 --> 00:26:09,139
And there's been interest, not just
recently, but there's always been
273
00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:13,020
interest from folks that want to
know, you know, what it was like.
274
00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:20,600
So, if you are ever, uh, if you have
time, you know, I would love to be able
275
00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:25,010
to, you know, have a short conversation
with you in regards to contracting
276
00:26:25,010 --> 00:26:29,420
what you, what you learned and how
I taught those lessons then and now,
277
00:26:42,260 --> 00:26:42,590
okay.
278
00:26:42,590 --> 00:26:43,370
Watch this one here.
279
00:26:45,395 --> 00:26:50,375
Because if we go through this 31 50,
it's going to snap into 31 55 ish.
280
00:26:51,695 --> 00:26:54,035
And then we got to see if it's going
to have any willingness to get through
281
00:26:54,035 --> 00:26:57,545
this, because what's this high here.
282
00:26:58,535 --> 00:27:00,155
What's going to be about
these highs here, here
283
00:27:04,895 --> 00:27:05,825
we buy stops.
284
00:27:06,695 --> 00:27:08,015
London ran through those.
285
00:27:08,765 --> 00:27:10,115
We cleared those by stops out.
286
00:27:10,475 --> 00:27:11,795
So what does that make this area?
287
00:27:13,155 --> 00:27:15,045
More specifically what
makes that down camp?
288
00:27:15,075 --> 00:27:18,405
What's it make this down candle breaker.
289
00:27:27,805 --> 00:27:32,215
So we have to watch and see if the orders
they use to run the stops above here.
290
00:27:33,115 --> 00:27:35,605
If they're on the winter, like the are
here, they may need to come back up
291
00:27:35,605 --> 00:27:40,255
to 1 30, 1 55, maybe even 1 30, 1 16.
292
00:27:41,514 --> 00:27:44,635
And then we'll see if the online,
those positions there and enroll over
293
00:27:44,635 --> 00:27:47,605
and maybe run for the 1 31 big figure.
294
00:27:50,014 --> 00:27:55,595
It doesn't have to get up there,
but I mean, let's put it this way.
295
00:27:56,105 --> 00:27:58,925
If the dollar is going to go
higher, longer-term dollar, cat's
296
00:27:58,925 --> 00:28:00,095
going to go higher, longer term.
297
00:28:00,485 --> 00:28:03,455
So really they could keep these
orders on their water the entire time.
298
00:28:03,455 --> 00:28:05,135
It trades all the way
down to the 31 big figure.
299
00:28:05,135 --> 00:28:06,875
It's not going to hurt them
because they have deep.
300
00:28:08,305 --> 00:28:11,275
But near term, we all, as a trader,
we always have to consider ourselves
301
00:28:12,235 --> 00:28:15,625
focused in on this type of price
action, because it is a breaker.
302
00:28:43,710 --> 00:28:47,340
That daily chart does not look
good to me at all on a dollar cat.
303
00:28:47,620 --> 00:28:49,440
It just looks like it wants to go lower.
304
00:28:51,030 --> 00:28:53,040
I mean, it's nothing that would be clear.
305
00:28:56,300 --> 00:28:56,780
Nothing.
306
00:28:57,080 --> 00:29:01,070
I mean, absolutely nothing clear
at all about wanting to go higher.
307
00:29:03,405 --> 00:29:07,785
We had so many times pushing
higher and it just failed until
308
00:29:07,785 --> 00:29:10,125
we got above that 33 big figure.
309
00:29:26,035 --> 00:29:29,385
When we, when you look at this order
block right here, let's look at it like.
310
00:29:32,760 --> 00:29:34,200
Relative to the daily chart over here.
311
00:29:35,340 --> 00:29:37,500
When price came down here, we
don't know if this is going
312
00:29:37,500 --> 00:29:38,430
to be the order block yet.
313
00:29:39,660 --> 00:29:43,860
When price runs like this, now we know
this is a bullish or block, so that's how
314
00:29:43,860 --> 00:29:47,160
we have to wait because simply wait for
price action to give us any indications.
315
00:29:47,670 --> 00:29:51,720
It smart money has bought that's
the impulse price swing that we know
316
00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:53,280
there's this there's been displacement.
317
00:29:53,280 --> 00:29:56,250
Someone in here with deeper
pockets have bought, so we know,
318
00:29:56,250 --> 00:29:58,230
okay, 30 80, which is inside this.
319
00:29:59,475 --> 00:30:01,125
30 80 should be sensitive going forward.
320
00:30:01,125 --> 00:30:03,825
So if ever trades back down
to 30, 80, we can be a buyer
321
00:30:04,335 --> 00:30:05,535
price runs through this high.
322
00:30:05,535 --> 00:30:07,605
So now we have a really good
high probability scenario.
323
00:30:08,895 --> 00:30:10,395
Price comes right down to 30 80.
324
00:30:11,085 --> 00:30:13,605
Notice how that's the first
return to that down candle.
325
00:30:14,145 --> 00:30:15,825
That's the one you look for.
326
00:30:16,635 --> 00:30:19,335
That's the one that everyone
needs to be focusing on.
327
00:30:19,335 --> 00:30:22,845
Whenever you identify an older block that
shows a strong impulse price swing away
328
00:30:22,845 --> 00:30:25,575
from it higher or lower doesn't matter.
329
00:30:26,535 --> 00:30:27,545
As soon as it returns back.
330
00:30:28,500 --> 00:30:32,430
If you're looking at a daily or a four
hour chart, think about the timeframe.
331
00:30:33,389 --> 00:30:38,159
You're going to have a lot more magnitude
of a price swing because of the nature
332
00:30:38,159 --> 00:30:39,690
of it being a daily or a four hour chart.
333
00:30:42,620 --> 00:30:46,820
So if we see a return like this on
a daily chart or four hour chart,
334
00:30:47,149 --> 00:30:49,250
even if this thing goes lower.
335
00:30:49,730 --> 00:30:50,000
Okay.
336
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:52,610
Cause there's no, there's no
guarantee that this order is
337
00:30:52,610 --> 00:30:53,600
going to hold nothing ever.
338
00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:58,680
It says that, but if we focus on daily
and four hours, Th the frame bullish and
339
00:30:58,680 --> 00:31:00,870
bearish shorter blocks by doing that.
340
00:31:01,710 --> 00:31:02,130
Okay.
341
00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:08,790
By doing that, it will offer many times a
tradable bounce, and that's all you need.
342
00:31:09,390 --> 00:31:12,990
You can get sometimes a hundred pit
bounces on daily setups like this,
343
00:31:13,770 --> 00:31:15,120
and you don't need the full 100 pits.
344
00:31:15,190 --> 00:31:18,780
So I was showing you in lessons two
and three, over the weekend, you
345
00:31:18,780 --> 00:31:22,980
don't need all of the rains that
you identified as potential profit.
346
00:31:23,100 --> 00:31:23,940
You don't need all that.
347
00:31:24,390 --> 00:31:25,160
And to do very, very.
348
00:31:26,325 --> 00:31:29,775
So this first return in the,
your block, that's where all the
349
00:31:29,775 --> 00:31:32,715
high probability scenarios occur
when you're trading order blocks.
350
00:31:33,615 --> 00:31:36,945
The first return is the one
everyone needs to be focusing on.
351
00:31:37,185 --> 00:31:37,575
Okay.
352
00:31:38,145 --> 00:31:44,895
Um, if, if this price swing here,
would've violated this short-term high.
353
00:31:45,765 --> 00:31:48,705
This would have been the first return
down to this bullish order block,
354
00:31:48,705 --> 00:31:49,845
which would be the down Caitlin, right.
355
00:31:49,845 --> 00:31:50,535
For this up move.
356
00:31:50,775 --> 00:31:55,375
But because we only closed in
the range up to this point, I'm
357
00:31:55,375 --> 00:31:56,605
not terribly excited about that.
358
00:31:56,635 --> 00:31:57,655
Now I can still do that.
359
00:31:57,655 --> 00:31:59,605
I can still one more time
punch up here and hit that.
360
00:32:00,385 --> 00:32:02,305
And that would be a study for you.
361
00:32:02,305 --> 00:32:05,665
It'd be for you to take that
experience and log it as, okay.
362
00:32:05,665 --> 00:32:09,055
I seen this happen before, and
that's what the benefit of us
363
00:32:09,115 --> 00:32:10,345
doing this on a daily basis.
364
00:32:10,345 --> 00:32:12,465
And we're not going to be spending
another five more minutes and
365
00:32:12,465 --> 00:32:13,405
we're gonna close this session.
366
00:32:14,035 --> 00:32:21,060
But when we have a market environment
like today, It makes it a little bit
367
00:32:21,060 --> 00:32:27,750
trickier and we can't be, uh, focused
on trying to drive a hard, uh, trade.
368
00:32:27,810 --> 00:32:28,980
Like we had to force a trade.
369
00:32:29,080 --> 00:32:32,820
We can't do that because
there's so many speeches.
370
00:32:33,330 --> 00:32:37,590
Every everybody's waiting to see
what's the next shoe to know fall.
371
00:32:46,170 --> 00:32:49,170
Uh, the question is, is if it
makes a second return to an older
372
00:32:49,170 --> 00:32:51,300
block, it is still a viable trade.
373
00:32:51,780 --> 00:32:55,140
And I said this before in the past, uh,
if you've missed it, not say it again
374
00:32:55,140 --> 00:32:58,170
here, and we will talk extensively
about this as well in month three.
375
00:32:58,590 --> 00:33:04,800
But the, uh, when you're trading on daily
or four hour charts, I will allow a second
376
00:33:04,800 --> 00:33:07,380
return to a bears or bullets over block.
377
00:33:07,380 --> 00:33:08,220
And they'll still be good.
378
00:33:08,760 --> 00:33:12,150
But after two times, I don't like
that even on a daily or a four hour.
379
00:33:12,180 --> 00:33:13,050
I don't like that at all.
380
00:33:14,990 --> 00:33:17,330
If they're going to take it to that
level on a daily or a four hour,
381
00:33:18,590 --> 00:33:19,790
there's going to be real orders there.
382
00:33:20,330 --> 00:33:22,460
And if they have to keep coming
back down to get those orders,
383
00:33:22,880 --> 00:33:26,810
that's not good because that's the
nature of a propulsion candle, which
384
00:33:26,810 --> 00:33:28,790
is a higher bullish order block.
385
00:33:28,790 --> 00:33:32,270
That's going to be subordinate
to a lower bullshitter block.
386
00:33:32,270 --> 00:33:35,330
In other words, it's going to
be another retracement higher.
387
00:33:35,630 --> 00:33:39,530
And if the move is going to be good,
they'll just capitalize a higher order
388
00:33:39,530 --> 00:33:41,840
block that happened after the initial one.
389
00:33:41,840 --> 00:33:42,290
You know what I mean?
390
00:33:42,470 --> 00:33:42,740
Like.
391
00:33:43,574 --> 00:33:45,794
This one, here is the parent order.
392
00:33:45,794 --> 00:33:48,524
Block price comes down and hits
that we should see a rally.
393
00:33:48,794 --> 00:33:51,915
It does, but we have this big range here.
394
00:33:51,945 --> 00:33:53,445
We can't use that one anymore.
395
00:33:53,864 --> 00:33:54,645
This is too big.
396
00:33:54,945 --> 00:33:56,054
So we got to break that down.
397
00:33:56,084 --> 00:33:57,885
We like to look into a smaller timeframe.
398
00:33:58,455 --> 00:34:00,854
We can't, I don't know if I can see it
in here, but I'm not gonna spend time
399
00:34:00,854 --> 00:34:02,354
doing it, but you can do that as well.
400
00:34:02,985 --> 00:34:07,875
Look at your, uh, September 28th and
see if there's a smaller order block
401
00:34:07,995 --> 00:34:09,915
in here that price responded to.
402
00:34:13,650 --> 00:34:15,750
It's hard managing these little
boxes all over the place.
403
00:34:15,750 --> 00:34:16,230
On my end.
404
00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:20,190
The, uh, what is that?
405
00:34:21,719 --> 00:34:22,650
October 3rd.
406
00:34:23,520 --> 00:34:23,820
Okay.
407
00:34:23,880 --> 00:34:24,810
October 3rd.
408
00:34:25,110 --> 00:34:27,659
See if that reached down into
something on a smaller timeframe.
409
00:34:28,350 --> 00:34:28,620
Okay.
410
00:34:28,620 --> 00:34:31,469
For a dollar CAD defined
support, older block
411
00:34:35,780 --> 00:34:36,400
right in here.
412
00:34:38,185 --> 00:34:40,465
This order block is
supporting it to this one.
413
00:34:42,115 --> 00:34:42,775
You see how we pray?
414
00:34:42,835 --> 00:34:46,225
This price came all the way down
into the middle of this one.
415
00:34:47,054 --> 00:34:51,324
You see that this candle right here came
down right into the middle of this one.
416
00:34:51,925 --> 00:34:53,275
So it came back and hit that one.
417
00:34:53,275 --> 00:34:56,725
But now, because this is a higher
one, plus we have another void.
418
00:34:57,505 --> 00:34:58,915
This should offer support.
419
00:34:59,035 --> 00:35:02,965
And that was the reason why
we saw that last buy in.
420
00:35:02,965 --> 00:35:03,085
Okay.
421
00:35:04,125 --> 00:35:05,294
Dollar K rallied off of that.
422
00:35:05,535 --> 00:35:06,194
So that's what I'm saying.
423
00:35:06,855 --> 00:35:08,294
I don't want to see it
come back down here.
424
00:35:08,294 --> 00:35:11,745
That's not good because
it would violate this one.
425
00:35:12,055 --> 00:35:14,145
If it's going to violate this
one, it's going to be wanting to
426
00:35:14,145 --> 00:35:16,245
go back to this foreshore block.
427
00:35:16,274 --> 00:35:20,205
Why you don't need to do that because
they've already offered an opportunity
428
00:35:20,205 --> 00:35:22,154
to be buying it again around 1 30, 1 40.
429
00:35:23,024 --> 00:35:26,774
So why should they lose all that
ground to come back down in the 30, 80.
430
00:35:28,955 --> 00:35:31,365
Th they're that greeting now, they're
not that they're not going to do that.
431
00:35:31,845 --> 00:35:33,464
They're going to, if they're going
to take it down, they're going
432
00:35:33,464 --> 00:35:34,904
to wipe out that order block.
433
00:35:34,904 --> 00:35:38,265
That's being noted here to take the
stops out because there's going to
434
00:35:38,265 --> 00:35:43,484
be more trailed liquidity in the
form of cell stops below that low.
435
00:35:43,845 --> 00:35:47,865
And if they drive it through here
to go back down to fair value, this
436
00:35:47,865 --> 00:35:50,325
order block will be the first time
it trades back down to that one.
437
00:35:50,384 --> 00:35:53,654
Notice that, so this price swing here.
438
00:35:55,980 --> 00:36:00,810
All the buying they did here
at, uh, 1 29 30 to 1 29.
439
00:36:01,950 --> 00:36:05,940
Well, yeah, well, let's call it
twenty nine, thirty to 29 20 that
440
00:36:05,940 --> 00:36:07,680
they bought here on in September.
441
00:36:08,130 --> 00:36:11,220
That would be a really good
level to expect buying it.
442
00:36:11,940 --> 00:36:15,839
Even if it doesn't go above 33 big figure
again, it still should be sensitive.
443
00:36:16,470 --> 00:36:17,190
Does that make sense?
444
00:36:17,819 --> 00:36:19,650
Do you understand what I'm
trying to lay down for?
445
00:36:19,650 --> 00:36:19,799
You?
446
00:36:27,365 --> 00:36:30,965
Even the fact that it's a daily or
four hour, you don't want to see it
447
00:36:30,965 --> 00:36:33,425
return multiple times if it does.
448
00:36:34,175 --> 00:36:35,405
It's not as bullish.
449
00:36:49,325 --> 00:36:49,715
Okay.
450
00:36:50,595 --> 00:36:54,555
97 70 cell stops are in range.
451
00:36:55,005 --> 00:36:57,765
So just be mindful that
we're looking for that $1.
452
00:36:58,545 --> 00:37:04,635
And if we get some experience on the
downside, we have the opening on 96, 62.
453
00:37:10,585 --> 00:37:13,645
And again, we're looking for the
cell stops below 1 31 big figure.
454
00:37:34,435 --> 00:37:35,575
I'm sorry, what was your question?
455
00:37:35,575 --> 00:37:39,294
I didn't see it last week and I
apologize that many of you probably
456
00:37:39,294 --> 00:37:43,254
do send me questions in here, the
ignoring you, and just when I'm watching
457
00:37:43,254 --> 00:37:44,865
price, I'm really just focusing on.
458
00:37:52,964 --> 00:37:53,174
Okay.
459
00:38:04,924 --> 00:38:08,515
There's a one shot, one kill set up
every single week on every single pair.
460
00:38:21,270 --> 00:38:24,720
So right now, if you were looking at
dollar cat, say you just turn, say,
461
00:38:24,720 --> 00:38:26,250
just turn your chart on right now.
462
00:38:27,089 --> 00:38:27,299
Okay.
463
00:38:27,299 --> 00:38:29,370
You opened up your charts right now.
464
00:38:30,120 --> 00:38:31,109
Immediate feedback.
465
00:38:31,140 --> 00:38:33,390
What's your, what are you anticipating?
466
00:38:33,419 --> 00:38:34,379
Where's the liquidity.
467
00:38:34,439 --> 00:38:35,470
Where, where should the market.
468
00:39:07,169 --> 00:39:08,779
I appreciate some of your honesty.
469
00:39:08,899 --> 00:39:10,339
Some of you were saying, I have no idea.
470
00:39:15,149 --> 00:39:15,779
That's okay.
471
00:39:16,080 --> 00:39:16,830
That's why you're here.
472
00:39:45,910 --> 00:39:49,180
See this down candle right
here, right before we saw.
473
00:39:57,075 --> 00:39:58,275
This damn candle right here.
474
00:40:19,810 --> 00:40:22,840
I don't see that as returning
to mean threshold of this
475
00:40:22,840 --> 00:40:25,570
down candle as significant.
476
00:40:25,570 --> 00:40:28,660
And the reason why is because if this
wasn't on a block and it is, it's
477
00:40:28,660 --> 00:40:31,930
always going to be an Orbach because
we saw price move away from it.
478
00:40:33,160 --> 00:40:37,150
They already capitalized
on that means threshold.
479
00:40:37,180 --> 00:40:37,380
Right?
480
00:40:38,985 --> 00:40:40,605
How do we know the order block is valid.
481
00:40:41,175 --> 00:40:43,665
In other words, when does the, when does
the down one cannot become an order block?
482
00:40:47,465 --> 00:40:50,075
This is the session, uh,
marker for your notes.
483
00:40:53,115 --> 00:40:57,225
When a down candles highs
violated, it's all it takes.
484
00:40:57,705 --> 00:40:58,755
It's got to break that down.
485
00:40:58,755 --> 00:40:59,385
Campbell's high.
486
00:41:01,225 --> 00:41:02,455
It does that on this candle.
487
00:41:02,455 --> 00:41:03,115
Very next.
488
00:41:05,035 --> 00:41:07,825
So as soon as that occurs, your
attention goes right to the middle
489
00:41:07,825 --> 00:41:08,964
of the previous down candle.
490
00:41:09,805 --> 00:41:10,765
That's where your focus is.
491
00:41:10,765 --> 00:41:11,845
That's the mean threshold.
492
00:41:13,285 --> 00:41:13,464
Okay.
493
00:41:13,464 --> 00:41:15,895
As soon as that happens,
you wait and see this price.
494
00:41:15,904 --> 00:41:19,255
Want to get back down there because that's
going to be equilibrium for the buyer.
495
00:41:19,375 --> 00:41:22,735
For the bullet, shorter block
price goes away from it.
496
00:41:22,944 --> 00:41:26,384
It goes right back down to equilibrium
or the main threshold middle point.
497
00:41:26,424 --> 00:41:29,904
That order block then
does what goes higher.
498
00:41:31,525 --> 00:41:32,575
We have an impulse price swing.
499
00:41:33,510 --> 00:41:36,630
So now you go back down to
the last BP body candle.
500
00:41:36,690 --> 00:41:37,410
That's down.
501
00:41:37,710 --> 00:41:38,610
That's this one here.
502
00:41:39,480 --> 00:41:40,410
Draw it out in time.
503
00:41:40,560 --> 00:41:42,270
You get the, the, the hit right here.
504
00:41:42,840 --> 00:41:46,590
It rallies again, these down candles here.
505
00:41:47,370 --> 00:41:47,880
Okay.
506
00:41:48,690 --> 00:41:53,580
They don't get violated until
this candle right there.
507
00:41:55,200 --> 00:41:55,830
Right there.
508
00:41:56,370 --> 00:41:58,170
It gets above this candle's high.
509
00:41:59,880 --> 00:42:02,170
So, when that happens, then you can
go back down to this candle here.
510
00:42:02,260 --> 00:42:02,610
Okay.
511
00:42:02,820 --> 00:42:07,050
If price trades down to this candles
opening, I can be a buyer again.
512
00:42:07,920 --> 00:42:08,610
And it happens.
513
00:42:08,730 --> 00:42:09,630
It happens right there.
514
00:42:10,230 --> 00:42:16,320
Now this down candle doesn't get violated
until when this candle right here.
515
00:42:17,640 --> 00:42:20,310
So if you go back down to this
candle here, draw that out in time.
516
00:42:20,520 --> 00:42:22,500
If it hits that opening or the
high gain, you could be a bar.
517
00:42:22,500 --> 00:42:23,760
It does it on this next candle.
518
00:42:23,910 --> 00:42:27,510
Notice it opens here,
trades down into the orange.
519
00:42:28,755 --> 00:42:29,655
And then rallies through.
520
00:42:33,125 --> 00:42:34,025
Does that make sense?
521
00:42:34,025 --> 00:42:36,245
That make better sense on understanding
what the order blocks are?
522
00:42:39,645 --> 00:42:43,245
If you're, if you're expecting an
up move and you're looking toward an
523
00:42:43,245 --> 00:42:48,135
order of block that's bullish, you
can not even consider it until the
524
00:42:48,135 --> 00:42:51,735
candle immediately after that candle
closes that you think is going to be
525
00:42:51,735 --> 00:42:54,765
an older block, the next candle, as
soon as it trades through its home.
526
00:42:56,195 --> 00:42:59,465
Or the dental candles high that you are
expecting to be a bullish order block.
527
00:43:00,065 --> 00:43:03,335
Once that happens, you immediately
go to the main threshold or middle of
528
00:43:03,335 --> 00:43:06,425
the down candle, and you start waiting
for price to trade back into that,
529
00:43:10,735 --> 00:43:14,695
especially when you're using higher
timeframe charts, like the monthly,
530
00:43:14,695 --> 00:43:16,705
the weekly and daily and four hour.
531
00:43:17,125 --> 00:43:19,705
You don't need to wait for
the impulse price swing.
532
00:43:19,705 --> 00:43:22,435
If you know what you're looking
for, you can trade directly,
533
00:43:22,435 --> 00:43:24,235
right from that immediate.
534
00:43:25,140 --> 00:43:28,350
Like in this case here, you can
expect these types of moves to be
535
00:43:28,710 --> 00:43:30,780
significant on a higher timeframe chart.
536
00:43:30,780 --> 00:43:33,810
You don't need to wait for that
big, long price swing away from it.
537
00:43:41,400 --> 00:43:48,240
So, which is what, I'm sorry, Mike,
if it violates the first one, but if
538
00:43:48,240 --> 00:43:51,570
you take them both via like the main
threshold, if you take them both,
539
00:43:52,500 --> 00:43:53,670
I don't know what you're asking me.
540
00:44:06,800 --> 00:44:11,030
It doesn't matter what timeframe the
question is it look, um, in regards to it
541
00:44:11,030 --> 00:44:16,780
being a 30 minutes, it's, it's not, it's
not, it's not that big of a deal in terms
542
00:44:16,780 --> 00:44:19,690
of price, because if you understand what
you're looking for, like for instance,
543
00:44:19,720 --> 00:44:20,620
we're looking at the daily chart.
544
00:44:22,165 --> 00:44:22,555
Okay.
545
00:44:23,185 --> 00:44:27,805
The ideas on the order blocks are going
to be more powerful and more sensitive
546
00:44:28,464 --> 00:44:29,725
on the fact that it's a daily chart.
547
00:44:31,225 --> 00:44:34,855
When we go into the lower timeframe,
the lower timeframes, you can see
548
00:44:34,855 --> 00:44:41,004
order blocks, fail a lot more in the
lower timeframes because the stops are
549
00:44:41,004 --> 00:44:43,585
not considered as much when you're,
when you're looking for just the
550
00:44:43,585 --> 00:44:44,964
order blocks and the lower timeframes.
551
00:44:45,895 --> 00:44:48,745
There's going to be more
focus on liquidity pool.
552
00:44:49,770 --> 00:44:50,879
Higher timeframes.
553
00:44:50,910 --> 00:44:51,529
You're going to find it.
554
00:44:51,540 --> 00:44:54,720
It's going to be a lot more
influence on price action between
555
00:44:54,750 --> 00:44:56,730
the order blocks, because that's
where the orders are residing.
556
00:44:57,600 --> 00:44:59,669
So when you're looking at lower
timeframe, this is why it's important.
557
00:44:59,669 --> 00:45:03,149
This is the only thing that's really
salient about lower timeframes that you
558
00:45:03,149 --> 00:45:06,990
have to keep in mind, lower timeframe,
like five minute and 15 minute timeframes.
559
00:45:07,500 --> 00:45:11,910
You're going to see a lot of roadblocks
that will fail and it will frustrate you.
560
00:45:12,299 --> 00:45:14,910
But when they fail, they're only
going down to take the stops out
561
00:45:14,910 --> 00:45:16,560
that you didn't consider when
you were looking at the blower.
562
00:45:25,884 --> 00:45:29,065
There's a one shot, one kill set up
every single payer every single week.
563
00:45:29,065 --> 00:45:34,105
Yes, but that's not the equivalent of
saying, uh, the entire range is going
564
00:45:34,105 --> 00:45:35,694
to be between Tuesday and Friday.
565
00:45:35,725 --> 00:45:37,254
That's not necessarily what I'm saying.
566
00:45:37,734 --> 00:45:41,035
One shot, one kill is
were in my definitions.
567
00:45:41,065 --> 00:45:43,165
That's given me a 50 to a hundred pips.
568
00:45:43,920 --> 00:45:48,390
That I can easily identify in
advance and map out and then trade.
569
00:46:14,755 --> 00:46:16,045
No daily or block.
570
00:46:16,105 --> 00:46:16,635
I'm sorry.
571
00:46:17,430 --> 00:46:21,120
Once I one killed trades and not always
at daily order blocks, they're going
572
00:46:21,120 --> 00:46:22,470
to be other, other things you'll learn.
573
00:46:26,170 --> 00:46:30,279
Um, what I was just mentioning about the
lower timeframes is everyone wants to
574
00:46:30,279 --> 00:46:34,210
look at like a one minute or five minute
or block and constitute trade on that.
575
00:46:34,660 --> 00:46:38,350
And many times you're going to see
on the lower timeframes, if you
576
00:46:38,350 --> 00:46:43,000
focus on where the stops are, you're
going to see those in environments
577
00:46:43,000 --> 00:46:45,250
that be more, um, centered.
578
00:46:46,215 --> 00:46:49,785
And then use more reference points
from the daily or blog perspective
579
00:46:50,295 --> 00:46:54,194
on the higher timeframe like daily
or four hour in the beginning.
580
00:46:54,194 --> 00:46:57,525
When you first learned this stuff, you're
gonna look at every up candle as a sell.
581
00:46:57,525 --> 00:46:59,025
And every down candle is a buy.
582
00:46:59,595 --> 00:47:02,955
If you're looking at like five minute
charts and if you're right and your
583
00:47:02,955 --> 00:47:06,015
directional premise and your institutional
order flow on the hard timeframes.
584
00:47:06,404 --> 00:47:06,645
Yeah.
585
00:47:06,645 --> 00:47:10,365
That you're going to have a
whole history of, of winning
586
00:47:10,365 --> 00:47:11,924
trades that paint out wonderful.
587
00:47:12,855 --> 00:47:17,084
But even in those conditions still, you
can experience a run on intraday liquidity
588
00:47:18,305 --> 00:47:19,725
folks that are trailing their stops.
589
00:47:20,955 --> 00:47:23,955
My guys mentioned earlier, if
we would have ran through that
590
00:47:23,955 --> 00:47:25,964
initial high here, cause that's
where all the cells, I'm sorry.
591
00:47:25,964 --> 00:47:28,544
That's where all the bus stops
are residing right here, right
592
00:47:28,544 --> 00:47:29,564
above this short term high.
593
00:47:31,645 --> 00:47:33,444
And I wouldn't be surprised
if we'd gone through that.
594
00:47:33,444 --> 00:47:37,059
Hit that level here into the
breaker, trade up into around 31
595
00:47:37,059 --> 00:47:40,495
55 and then it could probably roll
over and go down for the seller.
596
00:47:41,445 --> 00:47:44,085
But there's been no
real run on stops date.
597
00:47:45,135 --> 00:47:47,895
I mean, look at the entire
history here only on a, on a day.
598
00:47:48,465 --> 00:47:53,265
It's all been one-sided since London
and no run on liquidity, right?
599
00:47:54,315 --> 00:47:59,895
There's been no, Ronald stops
intraday and we're in, and we're
600
00:47:59,895 --> 00:48:01,215
in the heart of New York right now.
601
00:48:01,215 --> 00:48:06,165
So it would be reasonably expected to
see it run up there and take those stops.
602
00:48:06,225 --> 00:48:06,395
And.
603
00:48:10,660 --> 00:48:11,980
Now let's play devil's advocate.
604
00:48:11,980 --> 00:48:15,310
Say it goes through the breaker
here, say it goes right on through
605
00:48:15,310 --> 00:48:17,710
it and screams right through it
and takes out the London high.
606
00:48:18,279 --> 00:48:19,450
What do you do in that scenario?
607
00:48:25,870 --> 00:48:28,540
You go to the sidelines
and you do not do anything.
608
00:48:30,984 --> 00:48:33,475
Because all he did was run the
stops on the London session.
609
00:48:34,615 --> 00:48:36,955
And now you don't know what direction
is going to go because you have
610
00:48:36,955 --> 00:48:40,765
speech is a heavy the rest of the
day and you have that minefield laid
611
00:48:40,765 --> 00:48:43,375
out there and everyone else will be
mad trying to make their money back.
612
00:48:43,705 --> 00:48:44,305
And it never will.
613
00:48:44,544 --> 00:48:45,535
It never happens for you.
614
00:48:49,085 --> 00:48:49,285
Yeah.
615
00:48:49,285 --> 00:48:50,345
I'm not going to repeat that one.
616
00:48:53,254 --> 00:48:53,524
Yeah.
617
00:48:53,645 --> 00:48:56,975
That's usually what happens
for a charge move mover.
618
00:49:00,625 --> 00:49:05,275
But when it does happen and say you
have a short on, or if you try to sell
619
00:49:05,275 --> 00:49:08,665
the breaker and it blows through and
hit your stop, there's no reason to
620
00:49:08,665 --> 00:49:11,995
chase or get mad and go back in and
try to get revenge, you know, minded.
621
00:49:12,444 --> 00:49:15,115
You just simply wait for it
to do what it's going to do.
622
00:49:16,464 --> 00:49:17,694
And you be on the sidelines.
623
00:49:17,694 --> 00:49:19,255
Don't don't offer it to any more money.
624
00:49:19,585 --> 00:49:20,694
Cause it will take it from you.
625
00:49:35,085 --> 00:49:40,485
You're you're yeah, you're going to
learn exactly what makes me focus in
626
00:49:40,485 --> 00:49:42,134
and dial in on a specific word block.
627
00:49:42,225 --> 00:49:46,185
And when, like, if you look at
the free tutorials, it's real,
628
00:49:46,185 --> 00:49:47,415
it's real easy to come away with.
629
00:49:47,445 --> 00:49:49,395
Well, I can find this order block
here and I'm going to buy that one
630
00:49:49,785 --> 00:49:50,895
and I can see this order block.
631
00:49:50,895 --> 00:49:51,495
You're not gonna sell that.
632
00:49:52,335 --> 00:49:55,005
And I left it intentionally gray.
633
00:49:55,485 --> 00:50:01,455
I want you to not see everything in
the free tutorials, um, because it's
634
00:50:01,455 --> 00:50:05,835
going to require you a lot of work to
see this on your own, but once you get
635
00:50:05,835 --> 00:50:10,245
it in, but some of you would have never
gotten it on the free tutorials, but
636
00:50:10,935 --> 00:50:15,375
even if you had a good, a risk model
behind your trades, you'd still make
637
00:50:15,375 --> 00:50:16,995
money with the information I gave you.
638
00:50:17,384 --> 00:50:18,285
But the mentorship.
639
00:50:19,395 --> 00:50:20,924
I'm actually going to go into detail.
640
00:50:21,165 --> 00:50:25,245
What specifically constitutes the
order blocks that I will trade off of
641
00:50:26,085 --> 00:50:28,785
just highlighting them here in live
sessions has given you experience
642
00:50:28,785 --> 00:50:34,065
about what to expect and that's what
framed how I learned it, but there's
643
00:50:34,065 --> 00:50:38,325
a, there's a specific criteria I look
for that I only trade on specific ones.
644
00:50:45,780 --> 00:50:47,700
Oil plays a lot to do
with Canadian dollar.
645
00:50:48,090 --> 00:50:50,520
That's why we watch the
oil inventory numbers.
646
00:51:03,870 --> 00:51:04,200
Yes.
647
00:51:04,200 --> 00:51:06,720
12 months is certainly enough to
learn everything I intend to do.
648
00:51:08,049 --> 00:51:09,370
Anything less is not enough
649
00:51:22,690 --> 00:51:28,060
So in summary, what we're going to
be watching is the CAD have the steam
650
00:51:28,060 --> 00:51:31,480
to get up to 1 30, 1 55, and that
will be a breaker if it hits it.
651
00:51:32,200 --> 00:51:32,560
Okay.
652
00:51:32,670 --> 00:51:34,210
If we hit that, we'll look for.
653
00:51:35,145 --> 00:51:39,225
Priced a roll through and aim for
the 1 31 big figure cell stops.
654
00:51:40,065 --> 00:51:43,635
Um, it would've been nice to see this run
initially at the release of the numbers,
655
00:51:43,635 --> 00:51:45,285
but we had to wait around in here.
656
00:51:45,885 --> 00:51:47,325
Um, it could still stay down here.
657
00:51:47,325 --> 00:51:48,495
It doesn't have to run the stops.
658
00:51:48,735 --> 00:51:52,545
You know, they may think they won't,
they may, they may allow these, uh,
659
00:51:52,605 --> 00:51:54,555
they may not be enough liquidity
above these highs right now.
660
00:51:55,335 --> 00:52:00,495
So they may, they leave them intact and
maybe even drop down here by doing that.
661
00:52:00,495 --> 00:52:03,435
It leaves the cell stops
above the London high and.
662
00:52:04,950 --> 00:52:06,360
Above this intraday high as well.
663
00:52:06,630 --> 00:52:10,050
So they can start building them up
in any one that was already short.
664
00:52:10,380 --> 00:52:12,060
They can trail your stop
loss rate down here.
665
00:52:15,050 --> 00:52:16,070
And another scenario would be this.
666
00:52:16,070 --> 00:52:21,170
They could expand down, take this initial
low out and then jump up here and run the
667
00:52:21,170 --> 00:52:23,240
stops here because anyone that's good.
668
00:52:23,330 --> 00:52:28,670
If they're going to sell it off below
the 31 big figure, they're not going
669
00:52:28,670 --> 00:52:29,990
to go back up to London to do it right.
670
00:52:31,230 --> 00:52:31,560
Okay.
671
00:52:31,560 --> 00:52:36,540
So to get these folks to come down to
them, they'll drop price down, take out a
672
00:52:36,540 --> 00:52:38,010
low here, and then what's going to happen.
673
00:52:38,010 --> 00:52:41,070
Is everyone that's short is
going to drop their sell stop.
674
00:52:41,100 --> 00:52:41,340
I'm sorry.
675
00:52:41,340 --> 00:52:41,880
They buy stop.
676
00:52:41,880 --> 00:52:46,410
Rather from these highs down into a
short-term low, which would be right
677
00:52:46,410 --> 00:52:49,770
here exactly where the breaker would be.
678
00:52:49,890 --> 00:52:52,860
So they could take it down here, take
the short term, low out and then gun
679
00:52:52,860 --> 00:52:58,020
it, blow out the buy stocks they can
sell right into neutralize breaks.
680
00:52:58,815 --> 00:53:00,855
All their orders that
were used to buy here.
681
00:53:01,154 --> 00:53:03,975
They could neutralize all that
in here and then roll it through
682
00:53:04,035 --> 00:53:05,955
in, in gun for 1 31 big figure.
683
00:53:06,645 --> 00:53:09,375
That will be a scenario that
would be, uh, expected as well.
684
00:53:14,105 --> 00:53:15,634
But I'm going to leave you to this.
685
00:53:15,634 --> 00:53:17,345
You guys can monitor it
the rest of the morning.
686
00:53:17,855 --> 00:53:20,404
Um, again, liquidity,
we're aiming for a study.
687
00:53:20,404 --> 00:53:25,835
One big figure, sell stocks
below it and nothing in here.
688
00:53:27,570 --> 00:53:30,090
Nothing in here gets me terribly
excited about being a buyer.
689
00:53:31,259 --> 00:53:31,590
Okay.
690
00:53:31,590 --> 00:53:36,930
So I'll give you a daily recap
today around three o'clock,
691
00:53:36,930 --> 00:53:40,860
it'll be online and we'll review
what we see here on dollar cab.
692
00:53:40,890 --> 00:53:45,660
But again, because of the speeches
today, um, nothing in way of high
693
00:53:45,660 --> 00:53:48,270
probability and low resistance.
694
00:53:48,270 --> 00:53:51,540
I mean, the only thing we have here is
the liquidity below the 31 big figure.
695
00:53:52,080 --> 00:53:54,600
And you can see we've already
spent a lot of time going through.
696
00:53:55,380 --> 00:53:56,940
We're stuck inside of a 20 PIP range.
697
00:53:58,260 --> 00:54:00,000
So again, that's what we avoid.
698
00:54:00,000 --> 00:54:03,330
We don't want to be in these environments
because they're very frustrating.
699
00:54:03,630 --> 00:54:05,310
We want to be in markets
that are very quick.
700
00:54:05,550 --> 00:54:08,190
They give us velocity where we
can get her in, get in, get out
701
00:54:08,190 --> 00:54:10,290
and make our money, move back to
the sidelines where it's neutral.
702
00:54:10,620 --> 00:54:10,950
Okay.
703
00:54:11,790 --> 00:54:13,290
So take this log.
704
00:54:13,290 --> 00:54:15,810
This information today, I
gave you a couple of bits of
705
00:54:15,810 --> 00:54:18,390
information, I think is going to
be important to you going forward.
706
00:54:19,110 --> 00:54:22,620
And if he only wants to free
tutorials to concepts that this
707
00:54:22,620 --> 00:54:23,550
mentioned in regarding the order.
708
00:54:24,480 --> 00:54:27,750
Uh, the amplify, what you've already
learned in the free tutorials regarding
709
00:54:27,930 --> 00:54:29,040
bullish and bears order blocks.
710
00:54:29,730 --> 00:54:31,140
And I will get back
with you later on today.
711
00:54:31,170 --> 00:54:34,860
I'll send you a tweet on Twitter
when the, uh, the recordings online
712
00:54:34,860 --> 00:54:36,180
for those that came in late today.
713
00:54:36,810 --> 00:54:40,830
And also I'll tweet you when the
prerecorded session for recap
714
00:54:41,220 --> 00:54:42,330
is owned by three o'clock today.
715
00:54:44,340 --> 00:54:46,259
Again, wants this breaker guys watch it.
716
00:54:46,500 --> 00:54:46,890
Okay.
717
00:54:47,490 --> 00:54:48,270
Have a good afternoon.
718
00:54:48,270 --> 00:54:50,640
I will catch up with
you again and tomorrow.
719
00:54:50,640 --> 00:54:52,170
We'll do a live session in seven.
60599
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