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A bottom up approach takes a micro approach to forecasting.
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The approach starts by looking at historical data.
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The more data you have, the better.
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But often, even as little as six months to one year data is used in this approach.
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The model forecasts are based on these data to make
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assumptions about how the key metrics will behave,
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and then we forecast out the revenue based on these assumptions.
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Let's look at a sample income statement that uses
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bottom up approach to forecast out revenues and net income.
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For instance, we started with the historical data.
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For example, last year's income statement metrics,
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then we use this historical numbers to calculate out
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margin metrics as well as historical income tax rates and interest expenses.
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The next step is to use those margins and
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metrics to come up with the assumptions for the future,
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in this case, the following year.
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Finally, using those assumptions in our model,
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we forecast out the key metrics for next year.
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As you can see, bottom up approach is based on assumptions as well,
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but it is built on previously attained numbers.
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There are specific to how the company has performed,
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and not generalizations that relate to the market as a whole.
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