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In this video, we're talking about real life examples of Fibonacci retracement and extensions, so
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extensions are a little bit different in the sense that it's not, you know, point A to point B and
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where do you get in on a pullback?
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This is more like where can you go?
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As an exit.
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Uses the same mathematics, you could pull it out of the same menu as the fibber treatment, you could
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do the trend based BEB extension.
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So, for example.
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If you saw this move and you wondered, OK, well, where can we go?
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You can click on this drag to that move.
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Pull-Back.
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And then what happens is.
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One hundred percent of the MU.
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Shows up, you know, the high point of the movie, you pull back and you're like, OK, I want to get
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involved.
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So where are some targets?
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Well, the one point six one eight is by far the most common target you could see.
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That's exactly where we eventually ended up.
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But there's two point six one eight three point six one eight four point two, three, etc..
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Now, this is just a simple guide as to where you could go later on down the road.
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I will say that fib extensions are hardly ever used for anything other than short term day trading.
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You know, some people like them, but they aren't as widely followed.
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So the problem that you have with it is, you know, how I had discussed previously.
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There's no real reason to believe that Fibonacci works other than people believe it works.
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So it's a self-fulfilling prophecy because there are other types of Fibonacci.
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There's like Fibonacci cycles, Fibonacci time cycles and probably four or five others off the top of
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my head that I can think of.
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But the reality is, is retracement is pretty much what people use.
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The extensions, like I said, they give you an idea of where you can go.
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So like on this 30 minute chart, the theorem, you know, if you miss this trade, well, you can see
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that we pulled back and we hit one point sixty one before pulling back from there.
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This is like I said, it's more or less a short term traders type of situation, because the reality
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is by the time you get all the way up here on an extension.
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Unlike a weekly chart, the fundamentals can change and the entire attitude of the market can clearly
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change from there.
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So take that for what it's well, what it's worth.
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But you can see how it would have worked here quite nicely.
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You know, you got involved perhaps on this pullback here on support and you're looking at it like,
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OK, well, I want to see it where, you know, where can we go longer term.
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This is a half an hour chart.
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So it didn't take that long to get.
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There was a handful of days, maybe about two weeks.
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OK, so now that I have.
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Explain that, let's take a look at Fibonacci retracement.
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You know, like I said, it's much more common.
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So the first thing that I see is.
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You notice how we have rallied significantly in Bitcoin.
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This is the hourly chart all the way up to forty two thousand.
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So a lot of times what people will do is they'll see something like this and they'll say.
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I want to get involved, but I don't want to pay up.
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This is like going to the store, you know, if a TV is selling for, say, five hundred euros, five
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hundred dollars, whatever your local currency is.
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You know.
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If it's suddenly 750, you don't want to run out and buy it, you want to buy it when it's 300 and that's
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essentially what you're doing here with a Fibonacci retracement.
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So if you're patient enough, you wait at the very least for the first Fibonacci retracement level and
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there is the 23, but again, not as common.
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Thirty eight point two is much more common.
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And you can see it did react to that.
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But the 50 is even more important in the sixty eight point sixty one point eight, of course, is the
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golden ratio that everybody likes as well.
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But the 50 is very popular.
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And you can see and we'll talk about these later, but this is a double potom.
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This means that we had approached an area to try to break through it twice and failed.
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Well, it should not be a huge surprise that if they can hold it a couple of times that we have rally.
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It's pretty straightforward stuff there.
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So let's go ahead and clear that.
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And let's take a look at a little longer term chart, so this is a four hour chart.
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Now, this last leg up, that's not really the swing low.
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So you need to really kind of pull back here and you can see.
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That the thirty eight point two got hit.
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Not a surprise that we ran into a little bit of resistance here at the top, that's pretty common.
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But notice how.
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We reacted pretty quickly.
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That's a sign that we are going to continue going higher, so in this case, longer term, maybe you
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do want to look at a Fibonacci extension.
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So on the daily chart.
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You can see, you know, this is going to show us the same thing.
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You know, we could even go further and it doesn't take a whole lot to imagine that maybe the 23 held
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there, but let's get rid of that.
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And let's take a look at the monthly chart, and that's going to be straight up.
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But you could, at least in theory.
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Based upon the.
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FIB extension.
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Pull this out and then if you go over here, this side of the chart, you can shrink the range.
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By holding and dragging.
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So here's the thing, assuming that this is going to be the high, in theory, your target is roughly
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sixty thousand and then ninety five thousand.
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The problem with that is there are so many different things that could come into play between now and
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then that it is really difficult to get.
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You know that.
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Kind of into the market to the point where you are simply going to.
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Hold on for that kind of move.
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It's very rare that you can do that with something as volatile as cryptocurrency is probably not too
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wise.
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So, again, that's why I would stick to extensions on short term chart.
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So one way that a lot of people like using Fibonacci and I have to concur with this one is, you know,
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you've got this move here.
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And again, there's a 50 percent right, that we had just talked about.
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But.
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What happens if you draw another from this pullback, this impulsive move?
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And what you'll get.
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This is sixty one point eight at the same level, so that's what is known as a confluence, you have
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a couple of different fib levels that people are paying attention to.
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So there are some people that will look at this in the prism of this was the last and possibly higher.
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So I want to draw it there.
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There are the longer term ones that will look at it and you can see they all kind of come together there.
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So that's exactly what you want to see.
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That gives you double confirmation.
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Again.
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There's no 100 percent guarantee.
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But it obviously gives you better odds because you have different groups of people looking at the same
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thing, and that's that's one of the best ways to trade, right.
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One thing that I would warn of against is trying to use Fibonacci for.
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Countertrend moves, so, for example, we fell here pretty hard, right in Bitcoin and then bounced
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significantly to the 50, but we didn't really go that far and just.
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The traders got wiped out and, you know, the tried that, and the reason being is the entire trend
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was starting to turn higher.
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So Fibonacci really only works with the trend.
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And to be honest with you, that's going to be true with most technical analysis.
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That's not.
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Solely a Fibonacci thing.
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Now, here on Etherial, we can use short term charts as well.
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To to look for trade, so let's go back to the February Treisman.
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You can see this is clearly a swing low.
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And we rallied here and pulled back.
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Well, here's another thing that you will want to look for.
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Their support there anyways, you can see that it had been supported multiple times, so with the fifty
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or sixty one point eight percent Fibonacci retracement level and that support level, it's kind of hard
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to think that it would have been a bad trade.
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Even on a 15 minute chart.
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You can see these things kind of come into play, so.
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You know, again, this is confluent, we want as much confluences as possible, we want as many reasons
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to take a trade as humanly possible.
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There are other indicators that we will go through and they will also pile on to this, but at the very
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least, you want to trade with the trend when you're using Fibonacci retracement and.
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Extensions, but that goes without saying.
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You want confluence, so in this case, I showed you an example of where we had to Phibbs A sixty one
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point eight and a 50 tie together.
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But you can also use other indicators and we'll to talk about those later.
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And then, of course, you want to have a plan, you want to have a point where you say, that's it,
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I'm out.
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So let's talk about that.
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Here's a fib pullback back to the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement level.
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A lot of Web based traders would just put their stop loss behind.
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The Fibonacci level underneath it, with the thought process, it either holds or it doesn't, right?
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Now, if you want to use your extension's.
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You could.
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Lay this out and recognize that the market is trying to get to eighteen sixty one.
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Based upon that.
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Again, though.
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A little less reliable than retracement.
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So the extension, I use that.
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In short term targets, typically, and to.
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Kind of complement other Web based strategy.
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But when you look at this.
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You can see it was a nice setup and you could have just put it on the other side of the fence.
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Some people will even take it your stop loss, that is, some people will take that protection order.
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And then once we break above and we come back and we test the next fab, they'll put it right here.
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You know, they'll just move it up right along with it and kind of let the market you know, we broke
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broken about here.
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I put it right here, kind of let the market tell you when it's time to get out.
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Takes a lot of patience.
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You know, this was over the course of a couple of weeks.
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But really, the less you trade, the more money you're going to make.
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Anyways, that's generally the case.
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It's far too easy to over trade.
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So I would warn against that as well.
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So pretty basic stuff, there's there's not a lot to it, you just have to make sure you using swing
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highs and swing lows, you know, you like I said, you just take the swing low in the case of an uptrend
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to the swing high.
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Click it there and you can see it.
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Lay it out for you.
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And remember, there are other levels, but I broke it down to the three that matter by far the most.
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You know, once you once you start talking about like the twenty three and seventy eight, it's a little
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esoteric typically what happens.
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Is.
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So when you get the sixty one point eight broken to the downside, not always, but typically that's
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a bad sign.
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So.
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I'll pull up an hourly chart of Bitcoin.
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And.
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You can see that we do.
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Kind of follow the trend all along, but if you are trying to short this market for whatever reason,
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there's absolutely no reason to be short of this market.
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But if you were on the other side of this trade.
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Once you're past the sixty one point eight, you're in trouble, you know, you were your first sign
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of problems were up here and now you're trying to take off beyond that.
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So.
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That's why I don't like the 70 generally, if you're going to give up roughly two thirds of the move,
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you're going to give up the entire move.
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That's just an observation thing.
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Statistically speaking, once you're beyond half the move and then sixty one point eight, you know,
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you're closer to the entry, meaning closer to losing money from the entry than you are making it.
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So it's time to cut your losses and move along.
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And there are enough Fibonacci traders out there that.
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You will see them behave that way.
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So here's here's one here, and it looked really good for a while, but notice how.
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And over the longer term, it is against the trend, but notice, how had you taken this?
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At first, the 50 held, 50 percent held and it looked like you're going to be OK.
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But the fact that you couldn't reach the highs again, that was your first sign of trouble.
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So in a way, Fibonacci, a failed Fibonacci return to the one hundred percent in and of itself is a
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little bit of an early warning signal.
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I mean, there were still plenty of time to bail out with a profit on this.
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You know, this is an hourly charge, so you're talking two or three weeks and then you just get blown
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out.
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So that's something worth paying attention to as well.
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You know, again, trading with the trends, really the only way to go, it makes your life so much
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easier, even if that means you have to sit around and wait for the trade to set up.
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That's something that unfortunately, a lot of traders don't have the ability to do.
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So in the next video, I'll take a look at an indicator known as the Bollinger Bands.
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