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Welcome to the planet Earth.
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A world of blue nitrogen skies,
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oceans of liquid water and
more kinds of living things
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00:00:16,233 --> 00:00:19,100
than you can possibly imagine.
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You are the newest page
in its four-billion-year-old
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book of life.
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We're all very young here.
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New, like you, to the
mysteries of the universe.
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We hope someday you will
add to the little we know.
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00:00:38,433 --> 00:00:40,467
I can see a future
for you that is,
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in many ways,
longer and brighter,
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00:00:43,500 --> 00:00:47,934
and more free than
any human generation
has ever experienced.
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I also sense danger.
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That's nothing new here.
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It's always been that way.
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To be alive is to be in
some measure of jeopardy.
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Life is dangerous.
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In every generation,
in every time,
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everywhere on Earth.
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Our species, and
our fellow Earthlings,
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have gotten
through the tough times,
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when the prospects
for life looked bleak.
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Somehow, we manage to endure.
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And now, we want to protect you,
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and your 360,000 brothers and
sisters also born on this day.
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I have so much to tell
you about our world.
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Some of these
stories are frightening.
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But don't be afraid.
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We'll find a way.
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Where do I begin?
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So much has happened
before you got here.
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Fortunately, our ancestors
figured out a way to reach all
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the way back in time to piece
together the great story of
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00:03:02,667 --> 00:03:04,967
our planet's own childhood.
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And the amazing things
that have happened since.
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It's called science,
and it's your birthright.
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It's hard to believe
that all of this grandeur
was once a sea of fire.
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Come, I'll show you.
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This time next year,
you'll have your first birthday.
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That means you will have
completed one whole trip
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around the Sun, which is
what an Earth year is.
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To understand the vast
time scale of the cosmos,
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and our little world, we've
squished all of time into the
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scale of a single year.
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And that's where we are now.
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On the Cosmic Calendar.
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Every month is a little
more than a billion years,
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every day a little
less than forty million.
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A single hour on this calendar
is almost two million years.
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Earth was born in fire.
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Fires within its seething heart.
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And great balls of rock and ice
that explode in fiery impact.
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One was almost as big as Mars,
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and when it struck Earth,
it formed the Moon.
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But not to worry, little one,
because those fireballs were
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part of the chaotic
early solar system.
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In the billions of years since,
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the other worlds swept free
the lanes of their orbits.
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So our solar system is a
relatively peaceful place now.
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After its first
half billion years,
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Earth was spinning
faster than it does today.
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00:05:02,834 --> 00:05:06,567
The days were shorter,
merely six hours long.
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00:05:09,333 --> 00:05:11,667
The Moon was ten times closer,
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and its gravitational
grip on the young planet
was much stronger.
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The shores of the land were
battered by the largest tidal
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waves the world has ever known.
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A thousand times
greater than they are today.
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00:05:25,800 --> 00:05:29,467
The infant Earth was
no place for us then.
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00:05:30,934 --> 00:05:34,400
The atmosphere was mostly
carbon dioxide, methane,
and ammonia,
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a toxic environment
for our kind of life.
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We don't know what the
climate was like back then,
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but scientists
reason that the thick,
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00:05:43,467 --> 00:05:46,700
hazy atmosphere trapped
the heat of the Earth and
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00:05:46,834 --> 00:05:49,133
made it scorching hot.
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Another kind of life, tiny
creatures that could shrug off
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the methane and eat
carbon dioxide and
sunlight for breakfast,
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found a way to
make a living in the ocean.
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00:06:03,100 --> 00:06:05,266
And those scrappy
little cyanobacteria,
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as they're known,
remade the whole planet.
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By gobbling up
the carbon dioxide,
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and giving off oxygen,
they turned the sky blue.
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All that oxygen
destroyed the methane shroud
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that enveloped our planet.
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And it was cool.
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Not as cool as it is now,
but more like a really hot
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summer day year-round.
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And then something
wonderful happened.
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The atoms of oxygen that the
tiny creatures in the ocean
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produced began to gather high
above the world in the sky.
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And a new kind of
molecule was made.
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Ozone.
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It created an invisible
canopy against those rays of
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the Sun that were lethal.
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Now, for the first time,
life was free to leave the
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oceans for the land.
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And before long, life seized
these new opportunities.
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A wild variety of shapes and
sizes evolved as adaptations
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to these new habitats.
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And there were ears
and noses and wings.
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I'd like you to meet
a fellow Earthling,
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a very distant
relative of yours.
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You've only been here a day,
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but beetles have been
here for 300 million years.
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And the changes they've
seen on this world...
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Our kind has only been
here for a fraction
of that amount of time,
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11:00 on New Year's Eve
of the cosmic year.
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That's when our ancestors
stood up for the first time.
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We call them Homo erectus
for that reason.
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They were no longer
forced to stare at the
mud beneath their feet.
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Now, they could look
up and see the stars,
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and their hands were
free to change the world.
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They began to move
around, to explore,
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daring to risk everything
to get to unknown places.
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They were brave.
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And their blood
runs in your veins.
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Some of them explored the
vast continent of Africa.
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Others ranged north,
taking a left turn into Europe.
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There is evidence that they
would later evolve into the
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lost people we
call Neanderthals.
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We have no idea what
they called themselves,
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but we named them after
the place in Germany where
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00:08:53,100 --> 00:08:55,333
we first discovered
their ancient remains.
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Another even more
mysterious branch of our family
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took a right turn into Asia.
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And they evolved into
people we call the Denisovans.
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But you and I,
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and all our other
human brothers and sisters,
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were mainly descended
from the people who stayed in
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Africa for another
million and a half years.
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Sure, most of us have a little
blood from the other branches
of the family,
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but we are
mostly the children of Africa.
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To see how our kind
spread out around the planet,
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we have to go even
closer to midnight.
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11:55.
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Or about 150,000 years ago.
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It is now a minute
and a half to midnight.
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Until about 40,000 years ago,
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our Neanderthal relatives
lived very much as we did.
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They had bigger
brains than we do,
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and were brawnier,
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but they did many of the things
that we think of as being human.
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Most of us still
carry some tiny portion
of their genes inside us.
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But there are no more
living Neanderthals today.
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Nor are there any of
our other cousins,
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the Denisovans.
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When this happens, when a
whole species vanishes...
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we call it extinction.
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It's the end of a road that
began four billion years ago
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with the origin of life.
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We don't know why they died out.
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We do know that they
never ranged beyond the ocean
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coastlines of their environment.
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Maybe our hominid cousins were
just a bit more contented,
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less anxious and more
at peace than we are.
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Maybe it's a restlessness
that prods us humans to
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choose the unknown.
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Some powerful force
moved our ancestors to daring
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feats of courage.
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They crossed great
oceans with no idea of
what lay on the other side,
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carrying our people to
every continent on Earth.
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And even to the Moon.
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By the last second
of the cosmic year,
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there was no place on Earth
that we had left untouched.
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We became the first species
to remake the planet since the
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one-celled cyanobacteria
did billions of years ago.
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To change the oceans,
the land and the atmosphere.
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00:11:38,834 --> 00:11:43,233
And these changes have
led to a new mass extinction.
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The scientific community
has looked at the evidence,
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and decided our age
needs a new name.
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The Anthropocene.
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"Anthropo" from
the Greek word for
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"Human" and "Cene" the
Greek word for "Recent."
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It reflects our global
impact on the environment and
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the life it sustains.
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There's disagreement
about when it began,
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and nobody knows
how it will turn out.
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Happy New Year, little one.
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Welcome to the Anthropocene.
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I see a great
future for you, little one.
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But a shadow hangs over it.
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We're not exactly sure
when the darkening began.
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When did we become
a force of nature,
altering the skies,
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the seas and the
land of the planet?
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When did the age of
the Anthropocene begin?
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Some would say that it started
in places like this one,
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more than 10,000 years ago.
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Did our ancestors paint
these images of mammoths and
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saber-tooth tigers and giant
sloths to somehow keep their
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memory alive after
slaughtering the last of them?
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00:13:06,400 --> 00:13:09,100
Human-caused
extinction is nothing new.
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But we can't really
blame our ancestors.
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How could they know
that this or that kill meant
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00:13:15,033 --> 00:13:18,166
the end of an entire species?
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00:13:19,166 --> 00:13:22,300
I wonder, maybe the
Anthropocene started with the
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first seed that was
planted in the ground,
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and the agricultural
revolution that followed.
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00:13:29,066 --> 00:13:32,200
Before that time, the world
had twice as many trees to
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00:13:32,333 --> 00:13:36,066
convert the Earth's
carbon dioxide into oxygen.
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00:13:36,200 --> 00:13:38,133
With the
invention of agriculture,
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00:13:38,266 --> 00:13:42,333
our ancestors stopped
wandering to settle down into
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farms and cities.
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This is Çatalhöyük.
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It was one of the
earliest cities.
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00:13:56,333 --> 00:13:59,600
This is how it looked
about 9,000 years ago.
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00:14:00,300 --> 00:14:04,400
The great move indoors changed
our relationship to nature.
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00:14:05,133 --> 00:14:07,767
Those hearths, those
fires that warmed the small
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00:14:07,900 --> 00:14:09,900
dwellings of our ancestors...
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00:14:10,033 --> 00:14:12,200
were they the beginning?
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00:14:12,900 --> 00:14:15,367
The smoke from those
small fires did little to
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00:14:15,500 --> 00:14:17,266
alter the atmosphere.
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00:14:17,400 --> 00:14:19,000
But over thousands of years,
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00:14:19,133 --> 00:14:21,166
our numbers grew exponentially,
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00:14:21,700 --> 00:14:23,934
until we were cranking
out enough carbon dioxide
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00:14:24,066 --> 00:14:27,200
into the atmosphere
to warm the whole world.
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00:14:29,200 --> 00:14:31,233
Did the Anthropocene begin with
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00:14:31,367 --> 00:14:33,500
the domestication of animals?
217
00:14:33,934 --> 00:14:37,300
Cattle convert wild
grasses into methane,
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00:14:37,433 --> 00:14:39,867
another gas that
changes the climate.
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00:14:40,000 --> 00:14:43,300
It happens inside them when
they're digesting their meals.
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00:14:43,433 --> 00:14:45,073
But nobody would
figure this out until the
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00:14:45,100 --> 00:14:47,066
modern scientific era.
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00:14:47,800 --> 00:14:50,633
How could a few head
of cattle do any harm,
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00:14:50,767 --> 00:14:53,500
let alone change
Earth so radically?
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00:14:54,467 --> 00:14:56,867
Our ancestors wanted
to feed their families,
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00:14:57,000 --> 00:14:59,533
and make sure that the little
ones would not go hungry.
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00:15:00,800 --> 00:15:02,600
That they would live.
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00:15:04,967 --> 00:15:07,633
In China, around
4,000 years ago,
228
00:15:07,767 --> 00:15:10,500
a world-changing
discovery was made.
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00:15:10,834 --> 00:15:13,834
There were rocks that you
could burn for fuel to drive
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00:15:13,967 --> 00:15:16,100
away the cold and the damp.
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00:15:17,300 --> 00:15:20,633
These rocks were actually the
carbon remains of plants and
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00:15:20,767 --> 00:15:23,800
trees that had died hundreds
of millions of years before,
233
00:15:24,934 --> 00:15:27,433
and lay buried in the earth.
234
00:15:27,934 --> 00:15:31,533
Was the discovery of coal the
beginning of the Anthropocene?
235
00:15:32,333 --> 00:15:35,734
Coal became increasingly
important to power forges and
236
00:15:35,867 --> 00:15:38,033
foundries and homes.
237
00:15:39,467 --> 00:15:43,333
Or did the
Anthropocene really get
going about 1,000 years later,
238
00:15:43,834 --> 00:15:47,300
when people all
over Asia began to grow rice?
239
00:15:48,200 --> 00:15:49,867
This ingenious technique,
240
00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:53,200
which involves transplanting
seedlings into flooded paddies,
241
00:15:53,900 --> 00:15:56,133
is called "Puddling."
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00:15:56,400 --> 00:15:59,266
There was no way for these
hardworking farmers to know
243
00:15:59,400 --> 00:16:02,033
that this particular
method of growing rice,
244
00:16:02,166 --> 00:16:05,767
like the cattle, would someday
produce tens of millions of
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00:16:05,900 --> 00:16:08,367
tons of methane per year.
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00:16:09,000 --> 00:16:12,266
The flooded soil loses
oxygen, and then tiny,
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00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:14,734
invisible creatures, microbes,
248
00:16:14,867 --> 00:16:17,800
digest the plant matter
and produce methane.
249
00:16:18,667 --> 00:16:22,533
The leaves of the rice plants
release more methane into
the atmosphere.
250
00:16:23,934 --> 00:16:26,867
These early farmers had
no way of seeing what was
251
00:16:27,000 --> 00:16:29,633
happening on the
scale of the very small.
252
00:16:30,500 --> 00:16:33,467
Again, they were just
trying to feed themselves
253
00:16:33,834 --> 00:16:35,867
and each other.
254
00:16:40,767 --> 00:16:43,000
There's all kinds of writing.
255
00:16:43,133 --> 00:16:45,000
But this is how time writes.
256
00:16:45,934 --> 00:16:48,033
If you know how to
read time's alphabet,
257
00:16:48,166 --> 00:16:51,367
you can reconstruct events in
the great story of the planet.
258
00:16:52,533 --> 00:16:55,800
The most dramatic passage in
this saga is not written in
259
00:16:55,934 --> 00:16:59,000
the brightest colors,
but in pale white.
260
00:17:00,133 --> 00:17:03,600
This pale white line is
kind of an epic poem.
261
00:17:04,333 --> 00:17:07,100
It tells the saga of
the death of titans,
262
00:17:08,033 --> 00:17:09,767
all over the planet.
263
00:17:09,900 --> 00:17:13,133
This layer of an otherwise
rare metal called iridium,
264
00:17:13,266 --> 00:17:16,100
signifies the end of the
Cretaceous chapter some
265
00:17:16,233 --> 00:17:18,700
66 million years ago.
266
00:17:19,033 --> 00:17:22,600
This is when dinosaurs,
and three quarters of all the
267
00:17:22,734 --> 00:17:26,166
plants and
animals became extinct.
268
00:17:26,533 --> 00:17:28,567
There's a custom
among geologists.
269
00:17:28,700 --> 00:17:30,700
If you find a layer in
the earth that indicates
270
00:17:30,834 --> 00:17:33,867
the boundary of the first or
last time that the fossils of
271
00:17:34,000 --> 00:17:35,734
any species can be found,
272
00:17:35,867 --> 00:17:39,333
you mark it with
a "golden spike."
273
00:17:39,934 --> 00:17:42,233
You drive it into the
rock with a hammer.
274
00:17:42,367 --> 00:17:45,066
If we are living in
the Anthropocene,
275
00:17:45,200 --> 00:17:48,333
the age of human-
caused extinction,
276
00:17:48,600 --> 00:17:52,767
what wall do we drive
our golden spike into?
277
00:17:56,867 --> 00:18:00,266
It's in me, little one.
278
00:18:00,600 --> 00:18:03,934
When I was brand new,
just like you, only a day old,
279
00:18:04,066 --> 00:18:06,533
there were two great
superpowers fighting
280
00:18:06,667 --> 00:18:08,767
over the planet.
281
00:18:08,900 --> 00:18:12,834
They were both willing to
destroy everything to assert
282
00:18:12,967 --> 00:18:15,133
their dominance.
283
00:18:15,266 --> 00:18:19,567
On the very day I was born,
both nations exploded nuclear
284
00:18:19,700 --> 00:18:23,300
weapons in the atmosphere just
to show how strong they were.
285
00:18:24,967 --> 00:18:27,333
And those were only a few
of the thousands that were
286
00:18:27,467 --> 00:18:30,266
detonated over a
period of decades.
287
00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:34,266
The bombs gave off strontium 90,
288
00:18:34,667 --> 00:18:38,367
an atom made unstable by
its excess nuclear energy.
289
00:18:38,500 --> 00:18:41,133
It's called a
radioactive isotope.
290
00:18:41,266 --> 00:18:44,633
It polluted mother's
milk all over the planet.
291
00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:49,900
Mothers nursing babies
like you refused to
live with this horror.
292
00:18:50,033 --> 00:18:56,333
They joined together
to protest until a
treaty was signed in 1963.
293
00:18:56,967 --> 00:18:59,400
I, and my whole generation,
294
00:18:59,533 --> 00:19:02,400
carry an excess of
another radioactive isotope
295
00:19:02,533 --> 00:19:05,100
in the tissues of our bodies.
296
00:19:05,233 --> 00:19:07,800
It's called carbon 14.
297
00:19:07,934 --> 00:19:11,900
So if I ever lose my mind,
or forget how old I am,
298
00:19:12,033 --> 00:19:14,400
the echoes of those
nuclear explosions on the day
299
00:19:14,533 --> 00:19:18,000
of my birth
would tell you my age.
300
00:19:19,100 --> 00:19:23,066
Does this "golden spike"
inside me signify the beginning
301
00:19:23,200 --> 00:19:25,700
of the Anthropocene?
302
00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:29,300
Is that when it began?
303
00:19:29,734 --> 00:19:31,300
The atmospheric testing ended,
304
00:19:31,433 --> 00:19:33,934
but we just kept
on trashing our home.
305
00:19:34,066 --> 00:19:37,400
All the while knowing
that the day would come when
306
00:19:37,533 --> 00:19:40,433
it would all fall down.
307
00:19:40,567 --> 00:19:42,567
What good is it to know of
a danger if you don't do
308
00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:45,266
anything about it?
309
00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:48,400
Maybe it's better not to know.
310
00:19:48,533 --> 00:19:51,166
Knowing can be a curse.
311
00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:06,300
That live the longest
are those that never were, sts
312
00:20:06,433 --> 00:20:10,066
and always will be: myths.
313
00:20:11,166 --> 00:20:13,867
Apollo, the
ancient god of light,
314
00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:16,166
was always on the prowl
for attractive humans.
315
00:20:17,700 --> 00:20:20,600
One day, while strolling
the bustling streets of Troy,
316
00:20:20,734 --> 00:20:23,433
a rival city of
the Ancient Greeks,
317
00:20:23,567 --> 00:20:27,367
he spied Cassandra, the
smartest and most beautiful of
318
00:20:27,500 --> 00:20:29,567
the daughters of King Priam.
319
00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:33,500
Apollo fell madly
in love with her.
320
00:20:37,934 --> 00:20:41,233
Apollo usually got his way,
and he was shocked when
321
00:20:41,367 --> 00:20:43,734
Cassandra rejected him.
322
00:20:44,333 --> 00:20:46,467
How could he win her heart?
323
00:20:46,600 --> 00:20:48,767
She lacked for nothing.
324
00:20:48,900 --> 00:20:51,166
And she was happy.
325
00:20:51,533 --> 00:20:54,967
But Apollo was not
so easily dissuaded.
326
00:20:55,100 --> 00:20:58,433
And so he made her
an irresistible offer.
327
00:20:59,233 --> 00:21:02,300
He would grant her
the gift of prophecy,
328
00:21:02,433 --> 00:21:05,433
the ability to see the future.
329
00:21:06,333 --> 00:21:08,433
Cassandra was thrilled.
330
00:21:08,567 --> 00:21:11,300
Knowing what would happen
before anyone else would make
331
00:21:11,433 --> 00:21:14,033
her all-powerful.
332
00:21:14,166 --> 00:21:17,734
But then, Apollo explained
to her what he expected
in return.
333
00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:22,300
She would have to
submit to him as his lover.
334
00:21:22,633 --> 00:21:25,967
This was too high a
price for Cassandra.
335
00:21:26,100 --> 00:21:29,633
Apollo's rage took the form
of a cruel and ingenious curse.
336
00:21:30,533 --> 00:21:33,867
He granted Cassandra the
ability to foresee the future,
337
00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:36,633
but condemned her to be ignored.
338
00:21:55,166 --> 00:21:58,100
The Trojans
thought she was nuts.
339
00:21:58,233 --> 00:22:00,400
They contemptuously
referred to her as the
340
00:22:00,533 --> 00:22:02,934
"Lady of Many Sorrows."
341
00:22:03,333 --> 00:22:05,867
Today she would be
dismissed as a prophet of
342
00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:08,367
gloom and doom.
343
00:22:09,500 --> 00:22:12,734
Cassandra saw nothing but
trouble when her brother, Paris,
344
00:22:12,867 --> 00:22:15,166
decided to take a
trip to Sparta.
345
00:22:16,100 --> 00:22:18,867
She alone knew that
when he got there,
346
00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:21,867
he would fall in love
with the King's wife,
347
00:22:22,200 --> 00:22:25,633
a beauty named Helen,
whom he would abduct.
348
00:22:25,767 --> 00:22:28,533
This would bring ruin to Troy.
349
00:22:32,033 --> 00:22:34,967
But no one paid any attention.
350
00:22:35,233 --> 00:22:38,467
This was a time of
peace and prosperity.
351
00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:41,667
There was no clear
and present danger.
352
00:22:42,367 --> 00:22:45,133
The King wouldn't
listen to his daughter.
353
00:22:45,667 --> 00:22:48,000
No one would.
354
00:22:48,333 --> 00:22:50,333
When Paris brought Helen home,
355
00:22:50,467 --> 00:22:53,700
the people of Troy
celebrated her arrival.
356
00:22:53,967 --> 00:22:56,166
Cassandra was so desperate
to prevent the coming
357
00:22:56,300 --> 00:22:58,400
disaster that she
attacked Helen.
358
00:23:00,433 --> 00:23:03,033
Cassandra knew that the
Greeks would seek revenge
359
00:23:03,166 --> 00:23:05,934
against the Trojans, and that
they would be victorious.
360
00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:09,867
She foretold the defeat
of her father's army,
361
00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:11,934
and the sacking of
Troy by the Greeks.
362
00:23:14,033 --> 00:23:16,333
And the Greeks did come,
363
00:23:16,467 --> 00:23:18,567
just as Cassandra
knew they would.
364
00:23:19,567 --> 00:23:23,200
But even after years of warfare,
Troy still stood.
365
00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:27,500
When the Greeks retreated,
366
00:23:27,633 --> 00:23:30,233
boarding their ships
and sailing out of the harbor,
367
00:23:30,367 --> 00:23:33,033
there must have been
a sigh of relief among the few
368
00:23:33,166 --> 00:23:35,000
who wondered if there was
369
00:23:35,133 --> 00:23:37,934
something to
Cassandra's dire predictions.
370
00:23:39,300 --> 00:23:43,133
But what about that
enormous wooden horse?
371
00:23:43,467 --> 00:23:46,100
A Trojan platoon was
sent to investigate.
372
00:23:46,467 --> 00:23:49,400
They found a
single Greek soldier.
373
00:23:49,800 --> 00:23:52,266
A man named Sinon.
374
00:23:52,533 --> 00:23:55,300
The Trojans asked Sinon,
"What's going on?"
375
00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:58,867
He told them that a King of
the Greeks had wanted to offer
376
00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:01,166
him up as a human sacrifice.
377
00:24:01,633 --> 00:24:03,533
So he'd stayed
hidden until his brothers
378
00:24:03,667 --> 00:24:05,767
departed for home.
379
00:24:06,133 --> 00:24:08,467
And that colossal wooden horse?
380
00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:12,166
Sinon told them that
it was an offering
for the goddess Athena.
381
00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:15,667
How wonderful,
the Trojans thought.
382
00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:19,400
The horse was the
ancient symbol of their city.
383
00:24:19,533 --> 00:24:22,333
Why not move it inside the
gates and keep it as a trophy?
384
00:24:23,934 --> 00:24:28,066
Sinon laughed, and told them
that the Greeks had said it
was way too big
385
00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:30,734
and heavy for weaklings
like the Trojans to move.
386
00:24:31,900 --> 00:24:34,467
"Let them stare at it all
day and be ashamed about
387
00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:36,100
how feeble they are."
388
00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:18,400
The Trojans were
terrified that Cassandra's
389
00:25:18,533 --> 00:25:22,300
attempt at arson would
enrage the goddess Athena,
390
00:25:22,767 --> 00:25:25,633
and bring her wrath
down upon the city.
391
00:25:44,066 --> 00:25:46,133
Once the invaders
gave the signal,
392
00:25:46,266 --> 00:25:48,467
the ships of the Greek navy
that had been waiting out of
393
00:25:48,600 --> 00:25:51,500
sight offshore commenced
their attack on Troy.
394
00:26:28,567 --> 00:26:30,800
Apollo had had his fun.
395
00:26:31,166 --> 00:26:34,433
Cassandra's grim
prophecies had gone unheeded,
396
00:26:34,967 --> 00:26:38,100
and now it was
too late for Troy.
397
00:26:49,934 --> 00:26:53,433
For Cassandra,
knowing was a curse.
398
00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:57,300
But it can also be the
greatest of blessings.
399
00:26:59,166 --> 00:27:01,333
Let me tell you another story.
400
00:27:02,900 --> 00:27:06,333
Once upon a time, there
were no refrigerators.
401
00:27:19,300 --> 00:27:22,467
It used to be
hard to keep food from
spoiling in the summertime.
402
00:27:23,567 --> 00:27:25,200
There was a person
called the "iceman."
403
00:27:26,433 --> 00:27:29,100
He would come to your house
and sell you a big block of ice.
404
00:27:30,834 --> 00:27:34,000
You'd keep it in something
called an "icebox" to preserve
405
00:27:34,133 --> 00:27:35,967
the kinds of food
that spoil quickly.
406
00:27:37,867 --> 00:27:41,200
But that was a drag
because the ice kept melting.
407
00:27:41,333 --> 00:27:44,000
It would drip all
over the floor.
408
00:27:44,133 --> 00:27:46,734
So somebody thought up
another way to keep food cold.
409
00:27:47,867 --> 00:27:52,467
It was a gas powered
system that used ammonia or
sulfur dioxide as a coolant.
410
00:27:53,967 --> 00:27:55,600
No more lugging blocks of ice.
411
00:27:56,800 --> 00:27:58,533
What could be bad about that?
412
00:27:59,367 --> 00:28:01,433
The chemicals were
not only poisonous,
413
00:28:01,567 --> 00:28:04,033
they smelled terrible
and there were leaks.
414
00:28:07,133 --> 00:28:08,867
A substitute
coolant was badly needed.
415
00:28:09,867 --> 00:28:12,433
One that would circulate
inside the refrigerator,
416
00:28:12,567 --> 00:28:14,734
but would not poison anyone
if the refrigerator leaked,
417
00:28:15,867 --> 00:28:17,867
or pose a danger if it
was sent to the junkyard.
418
00:28:20,734 --> 00:28:23,000
Something that
wouldn't make you sick,
419
00:28:23,300 --> 00:28:25,600
wouldn't burn your eyes,
or attract bugs,
420
00:28:25,734 --> 00:28:27,333
or even bother the cat.
421
00:28:28,667 --> 00:28:32,033
But in all of nature, no
such material seemed to exist.
422
00:28:34,100 --> 00:28:36,467
So chemists in the
United States invented a
423
00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:38,400
class of molecules.
424
00:28:38,533 --> 00:28:41,333
Little collections of even
tinier things called atoms,
425
00:28:42,166 --> 00:28:44,400
that had never
existed on Earth before.
426
00:28:45,734 --> 00:28:48,300
They called them
chlorofluorocarbons,
427
00:28:48,734 --> 00:28:52,367
or CFCs, because they were
made up of one or more carbon
428
00:28:52,500 --> 00:28:55,266
atoms and some chlorine
and/or fluorine atoms.
429
00:28:57,433 --> 00:28:59,767
These new molecules
were wildly successful,
430
00:29:00,734 --> 00:29:03,133
far exceeding the expectations
of their inventors.
431
00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:21,033
Not only did
CFCs become the chief
coolant in refrigerators,
432
00:29:21,967 --> 00:29:24,533
but also in air conditioners.
433
00:29:24,867 --> 00:29:27,166
There were so many things
you could do with CFCs.
434
00:29:28,767 --> 00:29:32,033
People used them to
propel great fluffy mounds
of shaving cream.
435
00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:37,934
And to protect your
hair from wind and rain.
436
00:29:40,033 --> 00:29:43,000
It was also the propellant
that made fire extinguishers
437
00:29:43,133 --> 00:29:45,433
and spray paint
cans so much fun.
438
00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:48,767
It was good for foam insulation,
439
00:29:49,133 --> 00:29:51,133
industrial solvents
and cleansing agents.
440
00:29:52,734 --> 00:29:55,967
The most famous brand name
of these chemicals was Freon,
441
00:29:57,000 --> 00:29:59,100
a trademark of DuPont.
442
00:29:59,433 --> 00:30:03,900
It was used for decades
and no harm ever
seemed to come from it.
443
00:30:04,567 --> 00:30:08,033
Safe as safe could be,
everyone figured.
444
00:30:08,633 --> 00:30:12,333
Until, in the early 1970s,
two atmospheric chemists at the
445
00:30:12,467 --> 00:30:14,600
University of California, Irvine
446
00:30:14,734 --> 00:30:16,900
were studying
Earth's atmosphere.
447
00:30:17,834 --> 00:30:20,734
Mario Molina was a
Mexican immigrant,
448
00:30:21,166 --> 00:30:22,934
a young laser chemist.
449
00:30:23,066 --> 00:30:25,967
Sherwood Rowland was
a chemical kineticist,
450
00:30:26,100 --> 00:30:30,200
someone who studied the
motions of molecules and
gases under varying conditions.
451
00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:34,367
He was from a
small town in Ohio.
452
00:30:34,767 --> 00:30:37,900
Molina wanted to
grow as a scientist.
453
00:30:38,033 --> 00:30:40,467
He was looking for a project
that would take him as far
454
00:30:40,600 --> 00:30:43,033
from his previous research
experience as possible.
455
00:30:44,000 --> 00:30:45,333
He wondered.
456
00:30:45,467 --> 00:30:48,033
What happens to those
Freon molecules when they
457
00:30:48,166 --> 00:30:50,533
leak out of the air conditioner?
458
00:30:50,800 --> 00:30:53,667
This was a time when the
Apollo astronauts were still
459
00:30:53,800 --> 00:30:56,500
making regularly
scheduled trips to the Moon.
460
00:30:56,867 --> 00:30:59,400
And NASA was contemplating
weekly launches of
461
00:30:59,533 --> 00:31:01,467
a space shuttle.
462
00:31:02,333 --> 00:31:06,967
Would all that burning rocket
fuel pose a danger to the
stratosphere,
463
00:31:07,633 --> 00:31:10,967
that place where
Earth's atmosphere
meets the blackness of space?
464
00:31:12,867 --> 00:31:15,667
And this is how science
works a lot of the time.
465
00:31:16,033 --> 00:31:17,767
You set out to
solve one problem,
466
00:31:17,900 --> 00:31:19,500
and you happen on a
completely different,
467
00:31:19,633 --> 00:31:21,667
unexpected phenomenon.
468
00:31:24,400 --> 00:31:27,266
Those wonderfully inert,
"harmless" CFCs,
469
00:31:27,867 --> 00:31:31,033
the magic molecules of
shaving cream and hair spray,
470
00:31:31,934 --> 00:31:34,533
didn't simply vanish when
we were done with them.
471
00:31:35,200 --> 00:31:38,300
They had an afterlife
at the edge of space,
472
00:31:38,633 --> 00:31:41,500
where they
accumulated in the trillions.
473
00:31:41,633 --> 00:31:44,767
They were silently congregating
high above the Earth,
474
00:31:45,467 --> 00:31:47,600
and they were up to no good.
475
00:31:49,700 --> 00:31:52,600
Molina and Rowland were
alarmed to discover that the
476
00:31:52,734 --> 00:31:56,500
CFCs had thinned the
protective layer that shielded
477
00:31:56,633 --> 00:31:59,967
us from the Sun's
harmful ultraviolet radiation.
478
00:32:00,100 --> 00:32:02,500
And it was getting
worse all the time.
479
00:32:04,100 --> 00:32:06,266
When UV light
hits a CFC molecule,
480
00:32:07,433 --> 00:32:10,266
it strips away
the chlorine atoms.
481
00:32:10,400 --> 00:32:13,967
Once that happens, the
chlorine atoms start devouring
482
00:32:14,100 --> 00:32:16,734
the precious ozone molecules.
483
00:32:17,033 --> 00:32:19,667
It wasn't until our planet
developed an ozone layer,
484
00:32:19,800 --> 00:32:22,166
about two and a
half billion years ago,
485
00:32:22,300 --> 00:32:25,500
that it was safe for life to
leave the ocean for the land.
486
00:32:26,834 --> 00:32:32,700
A single chlorine
atom can destroy
100,000 ozone molecules.
487
00:32:38,700 --> 00:32:42,967
CFCs were in everything,
and the manufacturers couldn't
488
00:32:43,100 --> 00:32:45,066
imagine a world without it.
489
00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:48,867
The corporate response
to this danger was that the
490
00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:51,300
science hadn't been settled.
491
00:32:51,934 --> 00:32:54,600
People had a hard time
believing that we had become
492
00:32:54,734 --> 00:32:58,467
powerful enough as a species
to endanger life on the planet.
493
00:33:00,066 --> 00:33:02,734
They looked for non-human
causes for the loss of the
494
00:33:02,867 --> 00:33:04,567
ozone in the sky.
495
00:33:04,700 --> 00:33:07,066
One Reagan administration
official suggested that
496
00:33:07,200 --> 00:33:11,066
everyone just wear
more sunblock and put on a
hat and sunglasses.
497
00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:15,734
But the scientists
pointed out that the plankton,
498
00:33:15,867 --> 00:33:18,734
those tiny plants at the
base of the global food chain,
499
00:33:18,867 --> 00:33:21,867
and the larger plants,
were unlikely to do so.
500
00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:26,066
Molina and Rowland tirelessly
worked to warn the world.
501
00:33:28,000 --> 00:33:30,500
What's the use of
having developed a science
502
00:33:30,633 --> 00:33:32,633
well enough to
make predictions if,
503
00:33:32,767 --> 00:33:36,166
in the end, all we're willing
to do is stand around and wait
504
00:33:36,300 --> 00:33:38,133
for them to come true?
505
00:33:39,100 --> 00:33:40,667
Rowland and
Cassandra would've had a lot
506
00:33:40,800 --> 00:33:42,367
to talk about.
507
00:33:42,500 --> 00:33:45,300
But then something
amazing happened.
508
00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:48,700
There was a global outcry.
509
00:33:48,834 --> 00:33:52,000
People all over the
world got involved.
510
00:33:52,300 --> 00:33:55,433
In the 1960s, the women of
the world demanded an end to
511
00:33:55,567 --> 00:33:58,500
atmospheric nuclear testing
because they didn't want to
512
00:33:58,633 --> 00:34:01,400
nurse their babies
with poisoned milk.
513
00:34:01,867 --> 00:34:05,200
Then, in the '80s, consumers
demanded that the corporations
514
00:34:05,333 --> 00:34:08,333
stop manufacturing CFCs.
515
00:34:08,467 --> 00:34:10,600
And you know what, little one?
516
00:34:10,734 --> 00:34:12,467
The governments listened.
517
00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:16,233
CFCs were banned
in 197 countries.
518
00:34:16,367 --> 00:34:19,367
That's just about
as many countries as
there are on this planet.
519
00:34:20,333 --> 00:34:23,600
And that's why this is
one danger you can cross
520
00:34:23,734 --> 00:34:26,266
off your worry list.
521
00:34:26,567 --> 00:34:29,900
The ozone layer has been
getting thicker ever since.
522
00:34:34,700 --> 00:34:37,700
But what would've happened
if Rowland and Molina
523
00:34:37,834 --> 00:34:40,700
hadn't been curious about
the stratosphere,
524
00:34:40,834 --> 00:34:44,066
or if their warnings had been
ignored as Cassandra's were?
525
00:34:44,200 --> 00:34:46,567
By the time of
your 40th birthday,
526
00:34:46,700 --> 00:34:48,600
the ozone would have
been all but gone from
527
00:34:48,734 --> 00:34:50,266
the entire planet.
528
00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:52,710
You would never have been able
to take your own little ones
529
00:34:52,734 --> 00:34:55,500
out to bask in the sunshine.
530
00:34:57,667 --> 00:35:00,500
The food crops would
have completely failed.
531
00:35:00,633 --> 00:35:02,633
The herbivores,
those who live off them,
532
00:35:02,767 --> 00:35:04,500
would have died out.
533
00:35:04,633 --> 00:35:07,734
The carnivores would subsist
on their corpses for a while,
534
00:35:07,867 --> 00:35:10,600
but ultimately they, too,
would be doomed.
535
00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:16,500
If we continue to
safeguard the ozone layer,
536
00:35:16,633 --> 00:35:20,300
it will be completely
mended by your 50th birthday.
537
00:35:21,967 --> 00:35:23,900
I may not get to see it,
538
00:35:24,033 --> 00:35:26,867
but I have imagined
what it might be like.
539
00:35:35,200 --> 00:35:38,000
One last story, little one.
540
00:35:38,433 --> 00:35:40,233
It's about another
person who had the power to
541
00:35:40,266 --> 00:35:42,500
foresee the future.
542
00:35:43,266 --> 00:35:47,467
His story remains
unknown outside the
scientific community.
543
00:35:47,867 --> 00:35:51,233
But even Apollo would've
envied his power of prophecy.
544
00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:55,567
He foretold an epic tale
of things to come with
545
00:35:55,700 --> 00:35:58,133
astonishing accuracy.
546
00:35:58,266 --> 00:36:03,066
And every one of us,
including you, are in his debt.
547
00:36:08,834 --> 00:36:12,133
He was born in a rural
part of Japan named Ehime,
548
00:36:13,066 --> 00:36:15,233
which means "Lovely Princess."
549
00:36:15,767 --> 00:36:18,233
A place of
unspoiled natural beauty.
550
00:36:19,166 --> 00:36:21,667
But he spent much of his
childhood buried beneath the
551
00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:23,767
surface of the earth.
552
00:36:24,066 --> 00:36:27,900
The cruelest war the world had
ever seen had forced the boy
553
00:36:28,033 --> 00:36:30,867
and the people of his small
town to hide in an underground
554
00:36:31,000 --> 00:36:32,734
bomb shelter.
555
00:36:33,433 --> 00:36:35,700
At first, Syukuro Manabe,
556
00:36:35,834 --> 00:36:40,033
or "Suki," wanted to
be a doctor, like his
father and grandfather.
557
00:36:44,166 --> 00:36:47,834
He discovered physics and
became enchanted by it,
558
00:36:47,967 --> 00:36:50,400
but didn't think he
could do the math.
559
00:36:51,367 --> 00:36:54,867
His grades were poor,
until he began to concentrate
560
00:36:55,000 --> 00:36:57,367
on the questions that
interested him most.
561
00:36:58,433 --> 00:37:02,800
Why is the atmosphere
and climate of Earth
the way that it is?
562
00:37:02,934 --> 00:37:06,066
He wondered why Earth
maintained the same average
563
00:37:06,200 --> 00:37:09,033
global temperature
year after year.
564
00:37:10,133 --> 00:37:13,200
What was keeping the planetary
thermostat set at that
565
00:37:13,333 --> 00:37:15,433
particular temperature?
566
00:37:15,767 --> 00:37:19,333
Was it possible to
take all the variables
of the planet's climate
567
00:37:19,467 --> 00:37:21,200
its atmospheric pressure,
568
00:37:21,333 --> 00:37:24,166
cloud cover,
humidity, surface conditions,
569
00:37:24,300 --> 00:37:26,500
ocean and wind currents;
570
00:37:26,633 --> 00:37:28,934
and create a climate
model for the planet?
571
00:37:30,233 --> 00:37:33,133
One that had the
power of prophecy?
572
00:37:34,133 --> 00:37:37,667
Now remember, this was
before climatologists in Japan
573
00:37:37,800 --> 00:37:39,934
had any access to computers.
574
00:37:41,033 --> 00:37:44,333
He did these brain-numbing
calculations by hand.
575
00:37:49,166 --> 00:37:52,767
In 1958, he was invited to
immigrate to the United States
576
00:37:52,900 --> 00:37:54,834
by the US Weather Service.
577
00:37:55,567 --> 00:37:58,133
Five years later,
Manabe was given access to
578
00:37:58,266 --> 00:38:00,233
one of the first
"super computers."
579
00:38:04,533 --> 00:38:07,000
When the great volume of
data about Earth's climate
580
00:38:07,133 --> 00:38:10,033
crashed the entire system,
he was mortified.
581
00:38:12,633 --> 00:38:16,400
It took him another four
years to assemble the evidence
582
00:38:16,533 --> 00:38:20,233
for a bold and
tragic prediction.
583
00:38:42,433 --> 00:38:45,433
There are broken branches
on the four-billion-year-old
584
00:38:45,567 --> 00:38:47,667
tree of life.
585
00:38:47,800 --> 00:38:51,200
And this is their monument.
586
00:38:51,600 --> 00:38:55,000
Each hallway memorializes
the mass extinctions that
587
00:38:55,133 --> 00:38:59,767
were so widespread that life
itself came close to dying.
588
00:39:00,700 --> 00:39:03,500
The first five catastrophes
happened a long time
589
00:39:03,633 --> 00:39:05,633
before we got here.
590
00:39:05,767 --> 00:39:10,467
But the sixth is now,
and it has our name on it.
591
00:39:38,767 --> 00:39:42,800
Sometimes prophecy
comes as a cry from the
heart of a Trojan princess,
592
00:39:43,667 --> 00:39:44,900
but it can also be the
593
00:39:45,033 --> 00:39:48,233
dry-as-dust title
of a scientific paper.
594
00:39:48,367 --> 00:39:52,367
Thermal Equilibrium
of the Atmosphere with
a Given Distribution
595
00:39:52,500 --> 00:39:54,834
of Relative Humidity.
596
00:39:54,967 --> 00:39:56,066
Doesn't sound like,
597
00:39:56,200 --> 00:39:58,333
"The sky is falling,
the sky is falling!"
598
00:39:58,467 --> 00:40:00,567
But that's what it said.
599
00:40:04,467 --> 00:40:08,166
Maybe this is where we
should place our golden spike.
600
00:40:15,033 --> 00:40:17,533
Manabe and his
colleague, Richard Wetherald,
601
00:40:17,667 --> 00:40:20,467
predicted how the temperature
of the planet would change as
602
00:40:20,600 --> 00:40:23,567
a function of the increased
greenhouse gases humans pumped
603
00:40:23,700 --> 00:40:25,734
into the atmosphere.
604
00:40:26,033 --> 00:40:28,800
The scientists foresaw
precisely how the looming
605
00:40:28,934 --> 00:40:31,166
catastrophe would unfold.
606
00:40:33,333 --> 00:40:35,033
They saw far.
607
00:40:35,166 --> 00:40:39,000
Into our own time, and beyond.
608
00:40:42,133 --> 00:40:45,266
Some people still claim
the science is unsettled,
609
00:40:45,400 --> 00:40:48,667
but if that's so, how was
it possible for Manabe and
610
00:40:48,800 --> 00:40:51,533
Wetherald to correctly
predict the rise in Earth's
611
00:40:51,667 --> 00:40:54,600
temperature across
more than 50 years?
612
00:40:54,734 --> 00:40:56,800
And if it wasn't caused by us,
613
00:40:56,934 --> 00:40:59,800
where was all that
carbon dioxide coming from?
614
00:41:00,066 --> 00:41:03,100
The larger community of
climate scientists predicted
615
00:41:03,233 --> 00:41:05,533
heightened flooding
of coastal cities, check.
616
00:41:05,667 --> 00:41:08,667
The mass death of coral
reefs by ocean warming, check.
617
00:41:09,200 --> 00:41:12,333
The increase in intensity
of catastrophic storms, check.
618
00:41:12,467 --> 00:41:13,967
Lethal heat waves,
619
00:41:14,100 --> 00:41:18,200
droughts and
runaway wildfires of
unprecedented magnitude, check.
620
00:41:19,333 --> 00:41:22,200
The scientists warned us.
621
00:41:27,166 --> 00:41:31,867
What about your future,
your life, little one?
622
00:41:44,600 --> 00:41:47,633
Your first day of kindergarten
was postponed until the
623
00:41:47,767 --> 00:41:51,300
thermometer dropped below
the lethal temperature level.
624
00:42:00,166 --> 00:42:02,166
When the wildfires came,
625
00:42:02,300 --> 00:42:06,200
your family was forced
to flee with nothing
from your childhood home.
626
00:42:16,367 --> 00:42:19,433
Water was the
champagne at your wedding.
627
00:43:00,567 --> 00:43:02,266
This doesn't have to be.
628
00:43:02,400 --> 00:43:04,600
It's not too late.
629
00:43:04,967 --> 00:43:08,667
There's another hallway,
another future,
we can still have.
630
00:43:10,166 --> 00:43:13,500
I promise to get you there.
We'll find a way.
631
00:43:52,367 --> 00:43:54,333
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