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(intense fast music)
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For over a century, the planet Mars
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has been an enduring
theme in science fiction.
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From martian invaders,
to human plans to transform
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the Red Planet into a second home world.
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Today, science fact is
replacing science fiction.
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And, to many people, it seems clear that
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mankind's destiny as a spacefaring species,
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lies here on Mars, rather than on the moon.
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They're known as the Mars Direct Lobby.
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Others disagree, concerned that such a step
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may be a giant leap too far.
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They are known as the Moon First Lobby.
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{\an8}Mars has been the planet that has captured
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{\an8}the imagination of science fiction writers,
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{\an8}and a lot of people in my business,
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cut their teeth on science fiction.
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So, they read science
fiction, and they watched
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science fiction movies
and television as kids,
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now they're adults,
they're working in the business,
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they always wanted to, and to them,
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it's obvious you go to Mars.
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Mars is the planet that's most Earth like,
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of all the rocky planets,
in the sense that it has
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a reasonably equitable
climate, it has evidence
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for pass internal heat, it has evidence
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for presence of water
in a variety of states.
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So, of all the planets,
it is the one most likely
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to have originated life.
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And people want to know
if that's true or not.
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So that drive, that question, send a lot of
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people off the deep end, of saying,
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"Well, Mars is the obvious
target, it's the next target.
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"We've been to the moon, we've done that."
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And I think that's looking
at it the wrong way.
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I don't deny that the origin
of life is an important
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scientific question, but there are a lot of
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scientific questions,
and that's one of many.
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And the reason I have
the (mumbles) is that if
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you build my system, you can go everywhere.
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See, I don't just want the moon,
and I just don't want Mars,
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and I just don't want
asteroids, I want all of that.
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And the way to get all of
that, is to build a system
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that's robust, that's
incremental, that allows you
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to gradually, but continuously,
extend your reach.
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{\an8}I don't necessarily look
at moon versus Mars.
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{\an8}I basically look at, you know, what's the
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logical progression to get to Mars.
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Can I use the lunar
surface as a proving ground
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before I go to Mars?
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Now, the environments
are obviously different.
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Mars has an atmosphere,
even if it's tenuous,
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it's seasonal variations
are different than the moon,
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but there's enough things
that you can do on the moon
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that could help you get to Mars.
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What's going on now is
a lot of countries are
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looking at Mars as being a
bridge too far at the moment.
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That's fine.
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And, therefore,
the moon makes a lot more sense.
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It's relatively close,
the United States has been
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to the moon, so to a certain
extent, it's not a been there,
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done that,
but it's we know we can do it again.
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There are countries that are just literally
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getting outside of Earth
orbit for the first time.
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So, going straight to
Mars, really doesn't make
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a lot of sense for those countries.
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The people in China, and people in India,
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and Japan,
they want to see people on the Moon,
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from their country, in their lifetimes.
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They want to do it,
they don't want to sit around
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and talk about it, they want to do it.
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So, I think that's why
there's intense international
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interest in the moon,
it's a goal that's achievable,
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it's a goal that has
value, in terms of creating
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space like capability,
and it's something that
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excites a lot of their supporting public.
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So, they're very interested in the moon.
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To many in the Moon First community,
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the practical benefits
of being able to test
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a new generation of off world technologies,
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are very appealing.
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Not least because if anything goes wrong,
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help is only days away,
rather than months, or even years.
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But that's not the only
reason to return to the moon
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The second thing, though,
is the moon on its own
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has tremendous resources, and a reason for
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being there besides just science.
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And so, whether it's the
minerals, and the types
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of different metals that
may exist on the Moon,
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whether it's water,
those are things that society can use.
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So, in 30 or 40 years,
hopefully we've started
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to not just go to the moon
and look at the rocks,
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and set up telescopes and things like that,
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but we're actually trying
to use it commercially.
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And on the face of it, the commercial
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value of the moon,
could be literally out of this world.
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Distilling rocket fuel out of moon rock,
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could be extremely profitable.
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As could mining platinum
metals, and rare earths.
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And the rare isotope helium three,
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could turn out to be priceless.
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It may be the most valuable
substance known to human kind,
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and unlike the Earth,
the moon has millions of
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tons of this stuff distributed
across its smiling face.
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The list of lunar goodies
just keeps growing.
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This has obvious commercial value.
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And in fact, it will never be
done as a government program,
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it's always going to have to be,
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there's going to have to
be some commercial value,
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and some group of investors and operators,
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to make this thing work
on a long term basis.
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Now, my feeling is that
the best way to induce
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commercial activity on the moon, is to have
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NASA lead and show that it's possible.
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To show how difficult it
is, and what it costs.
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And then have the private sector
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take that over and innovate.
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In the last few years, over a dozen
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companies have begun to make their
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spacefaring intentions public.
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Some are offering economical
trips to low Earth orbit.
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Others are offering innovative
space habitat solutions.
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Yet, others are promising to cash in on the
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resources to be found on the
moon, and on asteroids.
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In each case, the plan is to hasten slowly.
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To take small steps that can
build upon the one before.
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Remember, we didn't first
land the Lunar Module on the
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moon, we first landed a small
little thing called Surveyor.
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And we actually crashed a few
things, called Ranger,
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before that, so we started small, to show,
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to learn how to do it,
to show that it could be done,
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and that's sort of the approach being taken
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by the small companies like Moon
Express, Nastrobotic,
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and the Israelis, who are all competing
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for the Google X prize.
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And that's the first step,
that's the way to, sort of,
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let people get their feet
wet, with the concepts
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of designing space craft,
delivering small payloads,
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that's one way to develop
a commercial industry,
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is to seed it with a prize,
and let people compete for it.
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The Google Lunar X prize,
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challenges privately
funded space flight teams,
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to land a robotic space craft on the moon,
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travel 500 meters,
and then send back high definition video,
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and images of the terrain.
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The winning team will
net a cool 20 million.
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But the bigger goal is to
incentivize entrepreneurs,
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to create a new era of affordable
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access to the moon and beyond.
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And to inspire the next generation of
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scientists, engineers, and explorers.
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Many observers believe
that the next boot print
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on the moon will be Chinese.
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Closely followed by those from
the host of other nations,
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who dream of becoming spacefarers.
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They, too, will proudly
plant their national flags
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in the moons unforgiving regolith.
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Interestingly, some say symbolically,
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when they get around to looking for the six
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American flags planted
by the Apollo astronauts,
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they may be surprised by what they found.
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Those flags have been on the
moon now for almost 50 years.
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And they've been exposed
to the full fury of
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14 days of lunar sunlight,
where the sun is searing
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their surface, and it gets up to...
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The surface temperature
is 100 Centigrade at noon.
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And the numbing cold of lunar night,
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which follows 14 days later,
and it gets down to -150 C.
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And if you look at any flag
that's been out on Earth
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for a long period of time, you'll notice
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that the colors are faded.
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I suspect that the flags on
the moon are largely white,
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because they've been bleached by
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solar ultraviolet for 50 years.
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In a way, that's kind of symbolic.
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We got six flags planted
by Americans on the moon,
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all of them are now white.
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That symbolism reflects the essence
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of the United Nations outer space treaty,
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which clearly states that the exploration
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and use of outer space, including the moon,
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is the province of all mankind.
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Time will tell whether
that treaty will hold,
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as a new era in space exploration
and development dawns.
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But what is certain, is that our moon,
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and our solar system,
are about to be changed forever.
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(dramatic music)
15575
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